FinFET and FD SOI: Market and cost analysis

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC.

632 Industrial Way | Los Gatos CA 95030 | USA | 408 395 9585 | 408 395 5389 (fax)

www.ibs-inc.net | [email protected]

FINFET AND FD SOI: MARKET AND COST ANALYSIS

SEPTEMBER 18, 2018

IBS

© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 2

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES BACKGROUND

▪ In business for 30 years

▪ Interface with most global leaders in electronics industry, with customers in U.S., Europe, South

Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China, India, etc

▪ Interface with and support major global corporations such as Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Microsoft,

Nokia, Samsung, SK Hynix, Sony, Toshiba, Apple, Cisco, Huawei, IBM, Fujitsu, Canon, NEC,

Hitachi, Renesas, TSMC, STMicroelectronics, TI, ARM, Cadence, Synopsys, Mentor Graphics,

Seagate, Globalfoundries, SMIC, NXP Semiconductors, and others

▪ Interface with and support financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Carlyle, Blackstone,

CitiGroup, Warburg Pincus, Walden, KKR, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas, Bain

Capital, Bank of America, TPG, and others

▪ Strong expertise in China

Published two books on China: China’s Globalization (How China Becomes No. 1) and Chinamerica

(McGraw Hill) and contributed to Wall Street Journal, Economist, New York Times, Forbes blogs,

China Daily, Global Times, EE Times, Xinhua, etc

▪ Support of strategic initiatives for number of global technology leaders

IBS HAS HIGH MARKET SHARE ON TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY BUSINESS

http://www.chinasglobalization.com/

http://www.chinasglobalization.com/

IBS


KEY ISSUES IN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY

▪ AI will be key driver for growth of semiconductor industry over next decade

▪ AI capabilities will transform many industries

• Autonomous driving and autonomous transportation

• Image enhancement for three-image-sensor-based smartphones

• AR capabilities for smartphones, including support for ToF

• Search engines in data centers

• VR platforms for gaming and other applications

▪ Smartphones are largest consumer of semiconductor products

• Smartphone volume is declining in 2018, but semiconductor content per phone is increasing

• Largest smartphone vendors by unit volume in 2018 are Samsung, Huawei, and Apple followed by

Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo

(Four Chinese vendors are in top six global smartphone vendors)

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KEY ISSUES IN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY (CONTINUED)

▪ Autonomous driving is building momentum

• While Tesla is technology leader, largest market for autonomous driving in 2020 to 2027 will be

China

• Growth of ADAS infrastructure in China is supported by 5G

• China is 12 to 18 months ahead of others in 5G technology

Will have three million to four million 5G base stations in 2020 to 2021

▪ Electrification of vehicles is in high growth, with strong demand for silicon IGBT products

SiC and GaN will be high growth, which will provide opportunities for substrates and foundry support

▪ Fan-out wafer-level packaging technology is also in high growth, with role of foundry vendors

increasing in support of packaging

OSATs will continue to grow and increase participation in high-density fan-out

SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONTINUES TO HAVE HIGH LEVELS OF INNOVATION

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WAFER SUPPLY

▪ Three major technologies will dominate IC supply, including:

• FinFET: Digital emphasis

• HKMG bulk CMOS: Probable limit at 22nm

• FD SOI: Limits at 12nm or potentially 10nm

▪ 7nm FinFET will be in high volume in Q4/2018 and is projected to represent 25% of TSMC’s

revenues in Q4/2018

• 10nm represented 25% of TSMC’s revenues ($2339 million) in Q4/2017 and 13% ($996

million) in Q2/2018

• 5nm is scheduled for high-volume production in H2/2020

• Samsung has similar schedule to TSMC and is potentially ahead of TSMC in process

technology

• FinFETs are highly effective for digital designs but marginal for RF and analog-centric mixed-

signal designs

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WAFER SUPPLY (CONTINUED)

▪ HKMG bulk CMOS is in high-volume production

• 28/22nm revenues will be $11.5 billion in 2018

• Bulk CMOS is also used for >28nm, where revenues will be $32.9 billion in 2018

• Key limitation of bulk CMOS is difficulty with scaling below 22nm

(Some volume production in past was at 20nm)

▪ FD SOI transistor cost can be lower than bulk CMOS and FinFET because of fewer mask steps

• FD SOI has very low active and standby power consumption with use of back biasing

• RF capabilities of FD SOI are superior to bulk CMOS and are much better than FinFET

SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY SHOULD PLAN TO HAVE THREE MAINSTREAM PROCESS

TECHNOLOGIES IN FUTURE

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TRANSISTOR DENSITY

CHIP (100mm² WITH 7nm PLUS) WITH 10.5 BILLION TRANSISTORS

MAY COST $500 MILLION TO DESIGN

16nm 12nm 10nm 7nm 7nm Plus 5nm 3nm

Transistor density (M/mm²) 26.4 31.7 49.0 87.1 104.5 156.8 196.0

Transistor count (MU)

20mm² 528 634 980 1,742 2,090 3,136 3,920

40mm² 1,056 1,268 1,960 3,484 4,180 6,272 7,840

60mm² 1,584 1,902 2,940 5,226 6,270 9,408 11,760

80mm² 2,112 2,536 3,920 6,968 8,360 12,544 15,680

100mm² 2,640 3,170 4,900 8,710 10,450 15,680 19,600

200mm² 5,280 6,340 9,800 17,420 20,900 31,360 39,200

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ADVANCED DESIGN COSTS

LIMITS NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS IN ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES

$28.5M$37.7M

$51.3M$70.3M

$106.3M

$174.4M

$297.8M

$542.2M

$0M

$145M

$290M

$435M

$580M

65nm 40nm 28nm 22nm 16nm 10nm 7nm 5nm

Adva

nced D

esig

n C

ost

Prototype

Physical

Software

Verification

Architecture

IP Qualification

Validation

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© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Number of years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Planar (28nm)

Digital

Mixed-signal (digital-centric)

RF

Mixed-signal (analog-centric)

Embedded nonvolatile memory*

Image sensors

Other

FinFET (16/14nm)

Digital 16/14nm

Digital 10nm

Note:

* Includes automotive.

MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 9

LIFETIME OF WAFER FABS

FINFETS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STRONG DEMAND FOR DIGITAL DESIGNS

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TSMC’S REVENUES BY FEATURE DIMENSION (FY)

7nm WILL REPRESENT 25% OF TOTAL REVENUES IN Q4/2018,

WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY $2.8 BILLION

($M) Q1 % Q2 % Q3 % Q4 % TOTAL Q1 % Q2 % Q3 % Q4 % TOTAL Q1 % Q2 % TOTAL

10nm -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 72 1 850 10 2,339 25 3,261 1,548 19 996 13 2,544

20/16nm 1,449 23 1,580 23 2,500 31 2,680 33 8,209 2,444 31 1,874 26 2,040 24 1,871 20 8,230 1,792 22 1,915 25 3,707

28nm 1,891 30 1,923 28 1,935 24 1,949 24 7,698 1,971 25 1,947 27 1,955 23 1,684 18 7,557 1,629 20 1,762 23 3,391

45/40nm 882 14 1,030 15 1,048 13 974 12 3,935 1,025 13 937 13 1,020 12 936 10 3,918 896 11 843 11 1,739

65nm 630 10 824 12 887 11 893 11 3,235 867 11 721 10 850 10 842 9 3,280 733 9 689 9 1,423

90nm 378 6 343 5 403 5 406 5 1,531 315 4 360 5 425 5 374 4 1,475 407 5 383 5 790

0.13/0.11µm 126 2 137 2 242 3 162 2 668 158 2 216 3 255 3 187 2 816 163 2 153 2 316

0.18/0.15µm 693 11 756 11 726 9 812 10 2,987 867 11 793 11 850 10 842 9 3,352 733 9 689 9 1,423

≥0.25µm 252 4 275 4 323 4 244 3 1,093 237 3 288 4 255 3 281 3 1,061 244 3 230 3 474

TOTAL 6,302 100 6,869 100 8,064 100 8,120 100 29,355 7,885 100 7,209 100 8,499 100 9,357 100 32,951 8,146 100 7,660 100 15,806

2017

(Dec 31, 2017)2016

2018

IBS


$0.92 $0.90

$1.07 $1.11

$1.43 $1.45

$1.52

0.00

0.35

0.70

1.05

1.40

1.75

28nm HKMG 28nm FD SOI 22nm FD SOI 12nm FD SOI 16nm FinFET 10nm FinFET 7nm FinFET

Costs

per

100M

Gate

s (

$)


PERSPECTIVE ON GATE COSTS

FD SOI IS COST COMPETITIVE

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COST BENEFITS OF FD SOI

▪ Gate cost of 22nm FD SOI is comparable to 28nm HKMG bulk CMOS (depends

on depreciation level)

▪ 12nm FD SOI will have lower gate cost than FinFETs

22.4% lower than 16nm FinFET, 23.4% lower than 10nm FinFET, and 27.0%

lower than 7nm FinFET

Key reason for lower gate cost of 12nm FD SOI is fewer number of mask steps,

which compensates for higher substrate costs

▪ Present focus of FD SOI is on 28/22nm, but with roadmaps to 18nm and 12nm

FINFETS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE GROWTH, WITH TSMC AND

SAMSUNG AS FOUNDRY VENDORS FOR ≤10nm

INTEL WILL BE POTENTIAL CANDIDATE IN FUTURE

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IMAGE SENSOR MARKET

ISP IS ONE POTENTIAL GROWTH MARKET FOR FD SOI

1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.10.1 0.10.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3

0.10.1 0.3 0.4

0.60.8

1.01.2

0.2 0.30.4

0.60.7

0.91.1

1.31.5

0.2 0.3 0.40.6

0.81.2

1.6

2.2

2.8

3.3

3.9

4.5

3.33.8

4.24.6

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.6

7.2

7.8

8.4

9.1

5.05.6

6.3

7.2

8.2

9.4

10.8

12.4

14.2

15.9

17.7

19.6

0

7

14

21

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Volu

me o

f Im

age S

ensors

(B

U)

AR

VR

Robots

Other

Automotive

Smartphone

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ISP WAFER REQUIREMENTS

▪ Volume will be 19.6 billion units in 2027

With 30mm² chip size and 1950 good dies per wafer, will require 10.1 million wafers (842,000 WPM)

▪ Each image sensor will require ISP, which is bonded directly to image sensor

ISP will also require 842,000 WPM in 2027

▪ FD SOI may provide better analog functionality (ADC), lower noise, and lower power consumption

compared to 22nm HKMG bulk CMOS and 16nm FinFETs

FD SOI may also give cost-competitive unit area with 22nm bulk CMOS due to fewer mask steps

Cost per unit area of FinFET is too high at ≤16nm for ISP support

▪ ISP functionality will need to be optimized for specific applications such as automotive, security, and

AR-based smartphones

Result is that there will be many ISP products

EXAMPLE OF APPLICATION THAT MAY BENEFIT FROM FD SOI IS ISP

KEY FACTORS ARE 28nm, 22nm, OR 18nm AS WELL AS DIE COST

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IOT SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET

IOT MARKET HAS GOOD GROWTH POTENTIAL AND IS GOOD CANDIDATE FOR FD SOI

$17.8B

$20.4B

$22.6B

$25.0B$26.9B

$29.7B

$32.9B

$36.5B

$40.6B

$45.2B

$50.5B

$56.7B

$0B

$20B

$40B

$60B

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

IoT S

em

iconducto

r M

ark

et

Analog

Controllers/Processors

ASSPs

Connectivity

Memory

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KEY ISSUES IN IOT SEMICONDUCTORS

▪ IoT applications will experience strong growth because efficient connectivity to

cloud is emerging

LPWA (primarily NB-IoT) will be key connectivity in short term and 5G in longer

term

▪ Approaches for monetizing data are being established by number of companies

AI technology for ADAS and consumer health is building momentum

▪ Wearable health monitors also represent IoT devices that have high growth

potential

Will have sensors, ADC, processors, and NB-IoT

Best technology option is FD SOI due to support of RF and low-noise analog

functionality and low power

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KEY ISSUES IN IOT SEMICONDUCTORS (CONTINUED)

EDGE DEVICES, WHICH INCLUDE IOT, HAVE HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL

FD SOI IS BEST TECHNOLOGY BECAUSE OF LOW POWER CONSUMPTION

AND RF CONNECTIVITY

IOT BUILDING BLOCK FUNCTIONS

Sensing Amplification Processing

Can be image

sensors, MEMS,

radar, LIDAR,

and others

Value can be

<$0.01 to

>$1000.00

Transmission Analytics Implementation

Can be

amplifiers

Can also include

filters

Can be

equivalent to

Arm Cortex-M0

and up to

100TOPS for

level 5

autonomous

driving

Can be Wi-Fi,

Bluetooth,

ZigBee, LTE-M,

NB-IoT, and

Sigfox, and 5G

Can be deep

learning with AI

and very high

performance

Can include

training and

inference

Key factor is in

how data is

utilized and

monetized

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PERSPECTIVE ON CHINA

▪ China is changing from being follower in many areas of technology to becoming leader

▪ China is leader in mobile 5G adoption and will have one billion 5G users in 2025 to 2028

▪ China will be volume leader in electric vehicles (40 million units in 2027 compared to one million units

in 2017)

Large battery capacity is being established to support electrification

▪ Autonomous driving is expected to increase rapidly in China, with Baidu being key driver

▪ Display capabilities are strengthening in China

OLED technology of BOE is becoming competitive

▪ China is building wafer capacity for FinFETs (TSMC and SMIC) and bulk CMOS (SMIC, Huali,

HHGrace, and CSMC)

There is excess capacity in 28nm bulk CMOS in Q3/2018

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR CHINA TO ALSO BUILD LARGE WAFER FAB CAPACITY FOR FD SOI

NEAR-TERM SUPPLY COMES FROM GLOBALFOUNDRIES AND SAMSUNG

IBS


$128.0B $129.5B

$158.8B$170.2B

$243.5B

$276.6B

$330.7B

$396.8B

$478.5B

$527.0B

15.8% 23.6% 31.5% 37.8% 41.2% 45.7% 50.4% 56.9% 62.9% 64.2%

$0B

$114B

$228B

$342B

$456B

$570B

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2027

Sem

iconducto

r C

onsum

ption i

n C

hin

a

Chinese ElectronicsEquipment Companies

Foreign Electronics Equipment Companies


SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION PATTERN IN CHINA

CHINESE COMPANIES CONSUMED 15.8% OF TOTAL SEMICONDUCTORS IN CHINA IN 2010

BUT WILL CONSUME 64.2% IN 2027

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SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY IN CHINA

4.5% 7.6% 8.9% 11.2% 11.7% 14.6% 17.1% 20.2% 25.6% 29.6%

0.9%3.3%

7.8%

10.6%

10.8%

$128.0B $129.5B

$158.8B$170.2B

$243.5B

$276.6B

$330.7B

$396.8B

$478.5B

$527.0B

$0B

$114B

$228B

$342B

$456B

$570B

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2027

Sem

iconducto

r S

upply

in C

hin

a

TOTAL SEMICONDUCTORMARKET IN CHINA

Supply from Chinese

Semiconductor

Companies

Supply from Foreign Semiconductor

Companies

Impact of China's $47 Billion

Investments

IBS


2566

102

175

264

361415

468519

8

37

82

120

165

238

313

394

25

74

139

257

384

526

653

781

913

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Num

ber

of

5G

Sm

art

phones (

MU

)

Other

China


5G SMARTPHONE VOLUMES

CHINA IS LEADER IN SMARTPHONE VOLUME AND 5G

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© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818

45%

64%

78%

84%

87%

78%84%

46%

68% 76% 81% 84% 80% 83%

40% 49% 57%66% 71% 76% 78%

55%

36%

22%

16%13% 22%

16%

54%

32% 24%19%

16% 20% 17%

60% 51% 43% 34% 29% 24% 22%

1257

1561

1950

20452104 2070

1836

298360 353

313266 268 267

172214 224 235 221 223 225

0

600

1,200

1,800

2,400

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018E 2020E 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018E 2020E 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018E 2020E

Mobile Phone PC/Laptop Color TV

Ele

ctr

onic

s Industr

y P

roduction (

MU

)

Other

China

45% in 2008

78% in 2018

SLIDE 22

CHINA ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY PRODUCTION

IBS


$19.3B $19.6B $20.0B

$21.2B

$22.5B

$23.9B

$25.4B

$27.0B

$28.7B

$30.4B

100.0% 100.0% 99.4% 95.7% 92.2% 88.2% 84.2% 80.0% 75.7% 71.6%$0B

$8B

$16B

$24B

$32B

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

TA

M F

oundry

for

FD

SO

I18/12nm

28/22nm


TAM FD SOI FOUNDRY

18/12nm TAM IS BASED ON ≤16nm FOUNDRY MARKET WHILE

28/22nm TAM IS BASED ON 28/22nm AND 45nm FOUNDRY MARKET

LARGE FOUNDRY TAM FOR FD SOI

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TAM FD SOI PRODUCT VALUE

FD SOI PRODUCT VALUE IS BASED ON LOWER COST, LOWER POWER CONSUMPTION,

AND COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE

$48.4B $49.0B $50.0B

$53.0B

$56.0B

$59.4B

$63.0B

$67.0B

$71.0B

$75.1B

100.0% 100.0% 99.5% 95.8% 92.5% 88.7% 84.7% 80.7% 76.4% 72.5%$0B

$20B

$40B

$60B

$80B

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

TA

M F

D S

OI

Pro

ducts

18/12nm

28/22nm

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CONCLUSION

▪ Semiconductor market is in growth mode, but there will be some volatility in 2020

Smartphones are largest user of semiconductors

Trade issues, however, could disrupt smartphone market

AI is key long-term growth driver for smartphones and other applications

▪ China is leader in 5G, with installation of three million to four million base stations by 2020 or

2021

Projection of one billion 5G users for 2025 to 2028

▪ Migration for digital designs to 7nm in 2018, 7nm Plus in 2019, and potentially 5nm in 2020

TSMC and Samsung will likely be only foundry vendors at ≤7nm

▪ FD SOI, which includes 28nm, 22nm, 18nm, and 12nm, is best technology for many

applications

FD SOI supply comes from Globalfoundries and Samsung

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CONCLUSION (CONTINUED)

▪ There are major benefits from China to support adoption of FD SOI for high-volume

products that need low power consumption, RF connectivity, and analog-centric mixed-

signal designs

FD SOI can provide product differentiation and optimize competitiveness of end designs, which

is important in global markets as well as China market

▪ It is important to develop new architectures that utilize ultra-low-power benefits of FD SOI at

12nm in order to give lower cost products than FinFETs for AR and other AI-centric mobile

applications

VeriSilicon is already demonstrating leadership capabilities in new architectures

HiSilicon is one of global leaders in semiconductor design at 7nm for smartphones and other

applications

THERE ARE MANY AREAS OF HIGH-GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN

SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY, AND CHINA REPRESENTS KEY MARKET

Documents

FinFET and FD SOI: Market and cost analysis