Finding Harms Way(Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines)Department of Environment and Natural ResourcesManila Observatory14 April 2005

TYPHOON TRACKS

EARTHQUAKEEPICENTERS

Where does the money go?

RISKlikelihood of harm, loss, disaster

Physical impact of disturbanceHAZARDCapacity of a community to prepare, absorb and recover from hazard

VULNERABILITY

RISKElements affected by hazardEXPOSURE

Risk = H x E x V

ExposurePopulationNatural habitatConservation areasGroundwater

EXPOSUREPOPULATION DENSITY 2000National Statistics OfficeCity/Municipal Population Data1km x 1km grids

EXPOSURENATURAL HABITATPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

EXPOSURECONSERVATION AREASPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

EXPOSUREGROUNDWATER AVAILABILITYMines and Geosciences Bureau

VulnerabilityHuman Development IndexEducationHealthEconomyUrban centersSocio-eco pressuresTransport

VULNERABILITYHUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000)UNDPEducationHealthIncome

VULNERABILITYHIERARCHY OF URBAN CENTERSTask Force on Human Settlements, Development Academy of the Philippines

VULNERABILITYSOCIO-ECONOMIC PRESSURESPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

VULNERABILITYTRANSPORTATION FACILITIESPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

EXPOSURE/VULNERABILITYPOPULATION DENSITY 2000HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000)

Hazards/RisksNaturalTyphoonDrought (El Nino)Earthquake (Tremor, Landslide)VolcanoTsunamiAnthropogenicDeforestation MiningClimate change (temperature,rainfall)

HAZARDTYPHOONJoint Typhoon Warning Center(Tropical Depression, Tropical Storms,Typhoons, Super typhoons)0.25 x 0.25 grids(1945-2001)

RISK (Typhoon)IfugaoLa UnionCagayanIlocos SurAlbayMountain ProvinceKalingaPangasinanSorsogonPampangaCamarines SurCatanduanesNueva EcijaIlocos NorteNorthern SamarTarlacApayaoRizalBenguetCamarines Norte

HAZARDEL NINOIPCC-DDC-CRU0.5 x 0.5 grids(1971-2000)

RISK (Drought/El Nio)SuluBasilanMaguindanaoLanao Del SurLanao Del NorteDavao Del SurMisamis OccidentalSaranganiZamboanga Del SurSouth CotabatoZamboanga Del NorteNorth CotabatoSultan KudaratSiquijorTawi-tawiNegros OrientalCamiguinDavao del NorteMisamis OrientalBukidnon

HAZARDEARTHQUAKENational Geographic Data Center0.25 x 0.25 grids(1963-2001)

RISK (Earthquake)TarlacZambalesPangasinanWestern SamarDavao del NorteSurigao Del NorteSurigao Del SurAlbayRizalCaviteCebuOccidental MindoroCamarines SurLa UnionPampangaBatangasSaranganiMasbateLagunaMetro Manila

HAZARDEARTHQUAKE-INDUCEDSHALLOW LANDSLIDESPHIVOLCS

RISK (EQ-Induced Landslides)AlbayRizalCebuCamarines SurTarlacZambalesPangasinanLa UnionPampangaWestern SamarSaranganiMasbateNegros OrientalLagunaMisamis OccidentalCapizDavao del NorteSurigao Del NorteBataanLeyte

HAZARDDISTRIBUTION OF VOLCANOESPHIVOLCS

RISK (Volcano)SuluAlbayTarlacZambalesNegros OrientalPampangaBatangasDavao del NorteBiliranCamiguinLagunaSorsogonSouth CotabatoCamarines SurQuezonNorth CotabatoBukidnonCagayanLeyteNegros Occidental

HAZARDTSUNAMIEnvironmental and Natural Resources Atlas of the Philippines, ECPF

RISK (Tsunami)AlbayCaviteCebuZambalesPangasinanLa UnionPampangaBatangasSaranganiMasbateNegros OrientalMetro ManilaSurigao Del NorteBataanLeyteSurigao Del SurBulacanRomblonBoholMisamis Oriental

HAZARDPROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGECommonwealth and Scientific Research Organization5.625 x 3.2 grids(2066-2095)

RISK (Temperature)SuluBasilanLanao Del SurMaguindanaoLanao Del NorteDavao Del SurZamboanga Del SurTawi-tawiMisamis OccidentalCamiguinSiquijorMisamis OrientalCebuAgusan Del NorteZamboanga Del NorteAlbaySaranganiNegros OrientalNegros OccidentalIfugao

HAZARDPROJECTED RAINFALL CHANGEHadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research 3.75 x 2.5 grids(2066-2095)

RISK (Rainfall Change)AlbayPampangaIfugaoRizalCaviteSorsogonLagunaBiliranBatangasPangasinanMasbateMetro ManilaTarlacNueva EcijaNorthern SamarAklanCapizLa UnionWestern SamarRomblon

HAZARDHISTORICAL CLIMATE CHANGEIPCC-DDC-CRU0.5 x 0.5 grids(1901-1990)

HAZARDDEFORESTATIONGlobal DEM Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

HAZARDMININGPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

In sum, harms way:TyphoonLuzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east)Drought (El Nino)Mindanao (central, west) Earthquake (tremor, landslide) + TsunamiNorthwest to southeast diagonal across RPVolcanoLuzon (west central, south, southeast), Visayas (central, east), Mindanao (central)Climate Change Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central)Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east)