Finding Climate Change and Being Useful

8/14/2019 Finding Climate Change and Being Useful

1/23

Ralph Cicerone is writing a paper to be

distributed by NCSE that will use the

following slides. In that paper, he willproperly cite and identify each slide.

Currently some of them are not labeled

completely.


2/23

Finding Climate Change and Being Useful

by Ralph J. Cicerone

John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture

National Council for Science and theEnvironment

January 26, 2006


3/23

Ice extent during the Last Glacial Maximum

Ruddiman et al (2005)


4/23

Annually-banded ice

cores can be used to

reconstruct past climatic

conditions

Cover photo: Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru

(Lonnie Thompson)


5/23


6/23

Moberg et al (2005) N. Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstruction


7/23

Levitus et al (2005): Ocean heat content in three layers


8/23

Barnett et al (2005): Observed and modeled ocean

temperature changes

Red circles: observed warming signal strength

Green hatched area: range of signal strengths in PCM model

with anthropogenic forcing included


9/23

Last 50 Years Surface Temperature Change Based on Linear Trends (oC)


10/23

Northern Hemisphere

Sea Ice Extent(1979 versus 2003)

Image courtesy of NASA-Goddard Space

Flight Center


11/23

Emanuel (2005): Hurricane power dissipation index (PDI)

PDI has increased

dramatically in recentdecades in both the

Atlantic and Pacific Ocean

basins


12/23


13/23

Mauna Loa, Hawaii


14/23

Global, Regional, and National CO2 emissions

Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning, cement

production, and gas flaring for 1751-2002


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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

RadiativeFo

rcing

(Wattspersquaremeter)

CO2 CH4 N2O CFC12 CFC11 Other

Source: NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Division

2004 Radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases


18/23

Frohlich and Lean (2005): Recent analyses of satellite measurements

do not indicate a long-term trend in solar irradiance

(the amount of energy received by the sun)


19/23

Immediate action with multiple benefits.

Energy efficiency would:

decrease our dependency on foreign oil

improve our national security

decrease our trade deficit

decrease local air pollution

increase our national competitiveness

encourage development of new products for

global markets

decrease household energy costs while also

slowing the increases of CO2

and CH4

!


20/23

Being Useful Through Science

Polarized discussion obscures priorities.

We must accelerate scientific research to deliver more useful

results.

For example, regional precipitation and hydrology,

extreme events like daily high temperatures to be expected

and minimum nightly temperatures in summer, Arctic sea-ice futures,

What to expect after the next stratosphere-penetrating

volcano?


21/23

Being Useful Through Science - II

Effectiveness of policies to retard radiative forcing by slowing theCO2 increase, slowing the N2O increase, reducing atmospheric CH4

and tropospheric O3, reducing emissions of extremely long-lived

gases.

Statistics of storm-driven sea surges for infrastructure andemergency planning and the insurance industry, statistics ofhurricane intensities and frequencies.

Improved predictions of hurricane tracks (sea temperatures

(depth), wind measurements by A/C and remote sensing, ships).

Communications: climate is more than surface temperatures

what is known and not known


22/23

1997-98 El Nino Precipitation Anomalies

Predictedprecipitation

anomalies for Jan-May1998 based on

composite of eight

previous ENSO events

Actualprecipitation

anomalies (relative to

long-term averages)for Jan-May 1998

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center


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Finding Climate Change and Being Useful

by Ralph J. Cicerone

John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture

National Council for Science and theEnvironment

January 26 2006

Documents

Finding Climate Change and Being Useful