Find out which team has 21.27% chances to win Bisnode Cup 2016

Find out which

team has 21.27%

chances to win

Bisnode Cup

2016...

BISNODE CUP 2016

...best defence strength

...best attack strength

How we did it

Purpose of analysis was to estimate attack and defense strengths of each national team. Various rankings

and statistics on teams and clubs were used as proxies. Matches played in qualification round were used to value and link proxies to attack and defense strenghts of teams (most likelihood estimation method was used).

Random sampling and simulations were used to avoid overfitting the data.The main assumptions is that matches played in qualification round represent an unbiased sample of matches in the final tournament (i.e. France performance in qualifying stage is biased since France played only friendly matches in qualifying round). France is the only team who has the »home field advantage« in the final tournament.

Based on our estimates of teams attack and defense strenghts more than 15.000 simulations of final tournament were performed. Based on those simulations the following results are presented.

Making predictions with statistics

Bisnode Big Data Analytics Lab is using unstructured and scattered web data combined with analytical

models to predict the outcome of European Football Cup 2016. By analyzing the teams and players by

goal intensity, attack and defense strength, historical results, etc. prediction can be done about each match

ending, the results of the group stage, and the outcome of the playoff tree and finally who will be the winner.

footballcup2016.bisnode.com

GROUP A

Albania

France

Romania

Switzerland

DefenceFIFA ranking

Attack

Expected group results

Expected group table

The most likely candidates for the top two

places in Group A are Switzerland and

France, with Switzerland being slightly

more favoured for first place. Third place will most probably go to Romania, but

it is most likely that Romania will not be

among the four best third-ranked teams.

Albania is the outsider with odds in favour

of it taking last place.

Albania without big chances in this group

Group A

France

Switzerland

Albania

Romania

France 0 - 0 Romania 24%

Albania 0 - 1 Switzerland 16%

Romania 0 - 0 Switzerland 23%

France 1 - 0 Albania 17%

Romania 0 - 0 Albania 26%

Switzerland 1 - 1 France 13%

Pts GG GR GD

Switzerland 5 4 2 2

France 5 4 2 2

Romania 4 2 2 0

Albania 2 2 4 -245

14

19

21

France Switzerland Albania Romania

GROUP B

England is Group B’s clear favourite

for winning first place, while out of the remaining three teams Russia has the best

chances of taking second place. When

it comes to Wales and Slovakia, Wales

is ahead in third-place forecasts, while

Slovakia is most likely to be the bottom-

placed team in this group.

England is the biggest favourite in Group B

Group B

Wales England Slovakia Russia

England

Russia

Slovakia

Wales

DefenceFIFA ranking

Attack



Slovakia

England

Wales

Russia

Wales 0 - 0 Slovakia 18%

England 1 - 0 Russia 19%

Russia 1 - 0 Slovakia 13%

England 1 - 0 Wales 25%

Russia 0 - 0 Wales 23%

Slovakia 0 - 2 England 16%

Pts GG GR GD

England 6 5 1 4

Russia 4 3 3 0

Wales 3 2 3 -1

Slovakia 2 2 5 -3

24

10

27

32

GROUP C

Germany is by far the biggest favourite for

winning first place in Group C and there should be little doubt that they will move to

the next round of the competition. On the

other hand, Poland and the Ukraine have

almost equal chances of taking second

place, with Poland just slightly ahead. Odds

are Northern Ireland will take last place.

Big fight between Poland and the Ukraine for second place

Group C

Germany

Northern Ireland

Poland

Ukraine

DefenceFIFA ranking

Attack



Ukraine

Germany

N. Ireland

Poland

Poland 2 - 1 N. Ireland 9%

Germany 1 - 0 Ukraine 23%

Ukraine 0 - 0 N. Ireland 20%

Germany 2 - 1 Poland 9%

N. Ireland 0 - 2 Germany 13%

Ukraine 1 - 1 Poland 14%

Pts GG GR GD

Germany 7 6 2 4

Poland 4 4 5 -1

Ukraine 4 2 3 -1

Northern Ireland 3 3 6 -3

26

5

27

22

Northern Ireland

Germany Poland Ukraine

GROUP D

Defending champions Spain have the best

chances of winning first place in this group. Croatia and Turkey have equal chances in the

fight for second place, with estimates that both teams will move on to the quarterfinals. On the other hand, the Czech Republic

has the least chance of advancing in the

competition and avoiding taking last place.

Spain is the favourite, while the Czech Republic is the outsider

Group D

Croatia

Czech Republic

Spain

Turkey



Turkey 0 - 0 Croatia 21%

Spain 2 - 0 Czech Rep. 13%

Czech Rep. 0 - 1 Croatia 11%

Spain 1 - 0 Turkey 21%

Croatia 0 - 0 Spain 24%

Czech Rep. 1 - 2 Turkey 10%

Pts GG GR GD

Spain 6 5 2 3

Croatia 4 3 3 0

Turkey 4 3 3 0

Czech Republic 2 3 7 -4

Czech Rep.

Croatia

Spain

Turkey

6

23

13

29

DefenceFIFA ranking

Attack

Spain Czech Republic

Croatia Turkey

GROUP E

Belgium is the biggest favourite in this group.

Italy has good odds for advancing as the

second-ranked team, while Ireland is given

slightly better odds against Sweden in the fight for third place. As one of the four best third-

ranked teams, Ireland should move to the

quarterfinals, making Sweden the only team in this group to catch the early flight home.

Belgium is the strongest team, Ireland and Sweden in battle for third place

Group E

Belgium

Ireland

Italy

Sweden



Ireland 1 - 0 Sweden 15%

Belgium 1 - 0 Italy 18%

Italy 1 - 0 Sweden 12%

Belgium 1 - 0 Ireland 23%

Italy 1 - 0 Ireland 18%

Sweden 0 - 1 Belgium 16%

Pts GG GR GD

Belgium 6 5 2 3

Italy 4 3 3 0

Ireland 3 2 3 -1

Sweden 3 2 5 -3

Sweden

Italy

Belgium

Ireland

2

15

31

36

DefenceFIFA ranking

Attack

Ireland Belgium Italy Sweden

GROUP F

Austria is considered this group’s favourite,

while analysis shows that Portugal has the

best chances of winning second place.

Iceland and Hungary have vastly smaller

chances of advancing, with Iceland having

a slight advantage. However, Iceland is

considered one of the two third-ranked teams

that will not continue the competition.

Austria has the best chances for first place

Group F

Austria

Hungary

Iceland

Portugal



Austria 1 - 0 Hungary 18%

Portugal 0 - 0 Iceland 21%

Iceland 0 - 0 Hungary 21%

Portugal 0 - 1 Austria 17%

Hungary 0 - 1 Portugal 19%

Iceland 0 - 1 Austria 20%

Pts GG GR GD

Austria 6 4 2 2

Portugal 4 3 2 1

Iceland 3 2 3 -1

Hungary 3 2 4 -2

Portugal

Hungary

Austria

Iceland

11

18

35

8

DefenceAttackFIFA ranking

Iceland Portugal Austria Hungary

Attack strengthall teams

1.46 Germany

1.38 Belgium

1.36 Poland

1.29 Czech Republic

1.15 Italy

1.07 France

1.04 Sweden

0.93 Croatia

0.88 Northern Ireland

0.66 Albania

0.61 Iceland

0.55 Romania

1.38 England

1,.31 Spain

1.26 Switzerland

1.24 Austria

1.15 Russia

1.05 Turkey

0.96 Slovakia

0.92 Portugal

0.74 Ireland

0.62 Hungary

0.61 Wales

0.49 Ukraine

According to the analysis, Germany has the

greatest offence potential, followed by England

and Belgium, Poland and Spain. On the other

hand, the Ukraine, Romania, Wales, Iceland and

Hungary have the weakest offence potential.

The host France takes 11th place according to

offence potential.

Defence strenghtall teams

England 1.54

Spain 1.65

Romania 1.32

Ukraine 1.24

Wales 1.22

Ireland 1.09

Turkey 1.07

Switzerland 1.03

Iceland 0.94

Hungary 0.68

Albania 0.66

Northern Ireland 0.52

Czech Republic 0.26

Belgium 1.53

Croatia 1.30

Germany 1.22

Austria 1.13

Russia 1.08

Portugal 1.04

Italy 1.02

France 0.94

Sweden 0.66

Slovakia 0.57

Poland 0.37

Spain has the greatest defence potential, followed

by England, Belgium, Romania and Croatia. On

the opposite end, the Czech Republic takes last

place, with Poland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia and

Albania ahead. The host France takes 16th place

according to defence potential.

ProbabilitiesAlbania

Slovakia

Iceland

Poland

Ireland

Romania

Turkey

Croatia

France

Austria

Belgium

Spain

England

Germany

Switzerland

Russia

Italy

Portugal

Wales

Ukraine

Sweden

Northern Ireland

Hungary

Czech Republic

Group winner 1/8 1/4 1/2 Finale Champion

Even Albania could win the group (6.2%)

According to probability calculations for each team to

reach a certain phase of the competition, the defending

champions Spain are most likely to win the tournament. The

next favourite in line is England, followed by Belgium and

Germany with probability scores of over 10%. Least likely to

win the tournament is the Czech Republic, with a further ten

teams having a less than 1% chance of winning.

Wales has a 0.84%

chance of winning the

tournament

Germany’s chances

of winning the

tournament (23.6%)

are lower than those

of Spain, England

and Belgium

1/8

Group stage

1/4

1/2

Final

According to the Bisnode forecast for the upcoming Euro,

Spain will defend their title of European champions by beating

Belgium in the final match, played in Paris. England and Switzerland will be the semi-finalists, while the host France will be eliminated in the quarterfinals along with Austria, Germany and Russia.

ForecastA B C D E F

Switzerland England Germany Spain Belgium Austria

France Russia Poland Croatia Italy Portugal

Romania Wales Ukraine Turkey Ireland Iceland

Albania Slovakia Northern Ireland Czech Republic Sweden Hungary

Poland - France England - Turkey Spain - Iceland Switzerland - Ukraine Germany - Romania Austria - Italy Belgium - Croatia Russia - Portugal

France - Spain England - Austria Germany - Belgium Switzerland - Russia

Spain - England Belgium - Switzerland

Spain - Belgium

SpainBisnode Cup Champion

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Find out which team has 21.27% chances to win Bisnode Cup 2016