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FINANCIAL SECTORS FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTHIdar Kreutzer, CEO, Finance NorwayNFU Conference May 28 2015
Economic Outlook• USA
– Increased growth– QE-program finished last year– First interest rate hike getting
closer
• Euro area– Fragile growth, high
unemployment rate, low inflation– Quantitative easing – 60 bn. Euro
per month until September 2016– Grexit?
• China– Reduced growth– Rebalancing the economy– Weak housing market, high
corporate debt and uncertainty in the credit markets causes concern
Annual Growth in GDP and Projections. Percentage
3
Source: IMF
The financial sector’s contribution to society
• Credit makes other sectors more productive
• Provides risk relief
• Large employer and taxpayer
• Highly compentent work force and high level of productivity
• Norwegian welfare and wage levels require high level of productivity
Source: Statistisk sentralbyrå
Source: Statistisk sentralbyrå
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Value added per hour worked. 2005 prices. 1990-2013
Finansierings- og forsikringsvirk-somhet
Fiske, fangst og akvakultur
Utenriks sjøfart
Utvinnning av råolje og naturgass, inkl. tjenester (høyre akse)
Bygg og anlegg Industri Varehandel mv. Finansiering og forsikring
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Tax payment for some sectors. Sum 2007-2012. Mill NOK
4
5
The financial sector – A productive sector with unused potential
Growth in productivity and employment Norwegian mainland industries, 1990–2010 (deviations from the average for industries)
-100 % -50 % 0 % 50 % 100 % 150 % 200 %
-100 %
-50 %
0 %
50 %
100 %
150 %
200 %
250 %
300 %
Employment growth
Growth in productivity
Information and communications
Finance and insurance business
Retail etc
Source: Victor Norman, NHH
6
Tillit er grunnsteinen for en velfungerende finansnæring
8
• New EU Commission:
Job creation• Policy framework for
financial services:– Innovation friendly– Fight fraud, protect consumers– Financial stability
• Is there a correlation between goals and instruments?
Need for calibration
Sustainable growth
Need for calibration
9
