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FINANCIAL INSTABILITIES, ASSET PRICES AND CRISES: THEORIES AND POLICIES. Marc Hayford and A.G. Malliaris Loyola University Chicago Association for Social Economics Program Atlanta, Georgia, January 2 – 5, 2010. Focus of the Paper. Financial Instabilities Asset Bubbles Financial Crisis - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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FINANCIAL INSTABILITIES, ASSET PRICES AND CRISES:
THEORIES AND POLICIES
Marc Hayford and A.G. MalliarisLoyola University Chicago
Association for Social Economics ProgramAtlanta, Georgia,
January 2 – 5, 2010
Focus of the Paper• Financial Instabilities
• Asset Bubbles
• Financial Crisis
• Monetary Policy
• What Theories? What Policies?
Financial Instabilities• Challenging to define• Financial stability means the efficient
allocation of funds to investment opportunities
• F. Mishkin: adverse selection and moral hazard
• G. Kaufman: bank soundness• Slow return to the pre-shock state• Keynes: capitalism is unstable
Financial Instabilities
• Financial instabilities increase uncertainty and generate risks
• Valuation risks: valuing securities during a financial distress
• Macroeconomic risks: deterioration of the real economy with high social costs
Proposed Definition
• Let X = R + F denote a vector of real and financial variables that are endogenous
• Let I and U denote exogenous and random variables
• An economy f(X, I, U) is stable if shocks to any of the variables do not translate to significant deviations from trend GDP.
Asset Price Bubbles
• Controversial Topic• Kindleberger: “An Upward Price
Movement Over an Extended Range that then Implodes”
• Soros on Reflexivity• Keynes, Minsky, Shiller on Animal Spirits• Preconditions for Bubbles?
Evolution of Bubbles
• Some Deflate• Some Crash• Some Do not Affect the Real Economy• Some Cause Serious Economic Damage
Monetary Policy
• Price Stability
• Economic Growth
• Risk Management Approach to Financial Instabilities
• Reservations of Anna Schwartz
Bubbles and Monetary Policy
• Two Questions
• Normative: Should Monetary Policy Target Asset Prices?
• Positive: Does Monetary Policy Target Asset Prices?
The Normative Question• Greenspan, Bernanke and Gertler: The
Fed Should Not Target Asset Prices
• Cecchetti and Others: React Cautiously
• Filardo: Deflate Bubbles
• Roubini: Burst Bubbles
Positive Question
• Hayford and Malliaris: Fed Policy Encouraged the Bubble
• Greenspan: Appears to Have Tried
• Using an Axe to Do Brain Surgery
Conceptualizing the Debate
• Monetary Policy is Symmetric: increase Fed funds as bubbles grow and decrease them when they crash
• Monetary Policy is Asymmetric: ignore bubbles until they burst, then lower Fed funds to minimize problems to the real economy (Greenspan’s put)
The Asymmetric Approach
• Greenspan’s clarification• Some support from the historical record• Central Bankers appear skeptical about
the theoretical simulations• Targeting bubbles may destabilize the real
economy• There is no political consensus for
targeting bubbles
Origins of the Credit Crisis
• Among various causes, consider the role of monetary policy
• Did the Fed contribute to the housing bubble?
• Yes (Taylor); No (Greenspan)
Productivity and Real Fed Rates
What Theories?• Schumpeter, Fisher, Keynes, Kindleberger
and Minsky tradition• Classical, Friedman, Lucas, Great
Moderation, Greenspan, Bernanke tradition
• Reformulation in current debate on bubbles and monetary policy
• Micro theories: Kane, Mishkin, Allen, Gale• Social and Psychological theories
What Policies?
• Lender of Last Resort• Macro-Prudential Regulation: Systemic
risks• Do Not Act Until We Understand• Yellen: Linkages Between Regulation and
Monetary Policy• Micro Financial Regulation• Shiller: Humanize and Democratize
Conclusion
• Difficult Task to Integrate Theories
• Even Greater Challenge to Introduce Optimal Economic Policies and Regulation