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Globalization and the Financial Crisis in Southeast Asia
Nov. 15, 2005
The Global Financial Crisis and Developing Countries
Valpy FitzGerald
Oxford Department of International Development
UNDP HDR Course, St Catherines College, Oxford
22 September 2008
Three FAQs
What is happening on global financial markets?
What does it mean for developing countries?
What can be done from a human development perspective?
FAQ 1
What is happening on global financial markets?
Origins of current financial crisis
Since 1990s deregulation of financial markets: risk pricing replaces prudential supervision. Rise of derivative assets with opaque markets and few players. Bank loans replaced by bonds etc.Huge US fiscal deficit, monetary expansion (Greenspan put), low savings led to a US mortgage boom/bust (non traded sector) and a huge current account deficit (traded sector).Mortgage bubbles (e.g. 1992 in UK) are familiar with obvious political costs; join recurrent bubbles in past decade (dotcoms, LTCM, Tequila etc);But this is by far the most serious systemically because it threatens the global banking system itself as creditor, and whole US electorate as debtor.
the elephant in the room
Sub-prime lending
Sub-prime lending had spread from inner-city areas right across the US by 2005. By then, one in five mortgages were sub-prime, and they were particularly popular among recent immigrants trying to buy a home for the first time, and the poor.House prices were high, and it was difficult to become an owner-occupier. But these mortgages had a much higher rate of repossession than conventional mortgages (and thus much riskier) because they were adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). Payments were fixed for two years, and then became higher and linked to Fed interest rates, which also rose substantially.
Subprime 2
A wave of repossessions is sweeping America as many of these mortgages reset to higher rates. By late 2007, one in ten homes in Cleveland had been repossessed and Deutsche Bank Trust, acting for of bondholders, was the largest property owner in the city. As many as two million families will be evicted from their homes as their cases make their way through the courts. The Bush administration is pushing the industry to renegotiate, but mortgage companies are being overwhelmed by a tidal wave of cases.
Scale and Spread
Collapse of the government backed mortgage system in the USA (Fannie and Freddie) followed by meltdown of major investment banks (Lehman, Bear, Merrill) exposed to mortgage marketMark-to-market asset pricing effects on balance sheets and cumulative liquidity retraction due to rising risk aversion;Now affecting Insurance (AIG) ; and pensions funds next?
Global mortgage boom and bust
The end of the stock market boom
Financial Times, 20 Sept 2008
bank boards and bank executives have failed to understand complex mortgage-backed banking products, as have central bankers, regulators and credit rating agencies.a reward system that has granted huge bonuses to those who peddled toxic mortgage-related products. Almost as absurd has been the degree of leverage racked up by investment banks.
Policy reactions
There are no atheists in foxholes and no ideologues in financial crises, Mr. Bernanke told colleagues(NYT 21.09.08)Freddie Mae and Freddie Mac (re)nationalised; Merrill sold to BankAmerica; Lehman to Barclays; Goldman and Morgan become banks again; US govt $700bn purchase of bad debt; G3 central banks support world banking. Expansionary monetary policy (to avoid recession like 1930s) and scale of US Govt (and G3) bailouts will have large repercussions, yet to be evaluated [lessons of Mexico etc?]
Scale of the potential bailout (already up to $850bn)
FAQ 2
What does it mean for developing countries?
Growth and trade
World GDP growth already projected by IMF to slow down by 2 % points (from 5 to 3 for 2008 and 09); probably more. So with 2% world growth; global GDP per capita fallsAsia probably most resilient (though exports to US will fall); LA will slow down, Africa recession?Commodity prices declining already; volumes too. Natural resource exporters will be hit; food and oil importers to benefit.
World growth will slow, reducing trade expansion etc.
An end to the commodity boom?
Investment and aid
International investment (bonds, FDI) will slow down; as will emerging market stocks; as global confidence declinesSovereign spreads will rise due to rising risk premium (default probability x risk aversion): already up to 4%. Aid flows already under pressure; will be hurt by fiscal overload in G3.
S&P 500 vs Emerging Markets Index
Unsurprisingly, G3 market expectations are bad
US now HIRC?
Recent ODA rise will be difficult to sustain
Poverty and human development
MDG goals even less likely to be met (growth and aid are main drivers)Limitations of family support (Asia), few universal benefits (LA) and narrow safety nets (Africa): effect on poor Previous crises increased inequality, which remains even when growth recoversCommodity price reverse will change lottery of winners and losers
FAQ 3
What can be done from a human development perspective?
Proactive macroeconomic policy
Countercyclical monetary policy and real exchange rate management (inc. capital controls) necessary: MICs with forex reserves already do this;but LICs constrained by IMF.Support domestic banks (esp for agriculture and SMEs), underwrite longterm investment lending; keep real interest rates low.Raise tax pressure (not rates) to maintain fiscal balance and reduce public borrowing.
HD strategy for difficult times
Evidence (UNICEF) that for children employment stability more important than wages; implications for e.g. inflation policyEssential to ringfence budgets (in real terms) for education and health; extend schemes for (simple) universal benefits.Focus on inequality (especially horizontal) rather than just poverty; to reduce conflict and increase social cohesion.
International action and the duty to protect
Essential to moderate G8 policy shifts (e.g. bank regulation, interest rates, exchange rates) from viewpoint of impact on world poor.Need for UN to speak in a clear, timely and credible fashion on these issues (TDR08 good, UN/DESA etc silent)Regional arrangements for mutual currency support etc are vital (Asia progressing; LA talking; Africa nothing). Role for sovereign wealth funds?
*
Study Questions
What are the new challenges for SE Asia in the world of global finance?* Are they more structural or more relevant to some actors?What were the internal and external causes of the Financial Crisis?*What are the roles of intl institutions in SE Asia after the crisis, esp. the IMF?*Do you think it is fair to criticize ASEAN as not doing enough in the crisis?* If so, what do you expect ASEAN to do? Is it feasible in reality or not?*What are the constraints preventing ASEAN from doing more during and after the crisis?*What are domestic consequences of the crisis in the hard hit countries?*What are the consequences of the crisis to IR b/w SE Asia and Japan, China, and the U.S.?
*
What are the new challenges for SE Asia in the world of global finance?
Globalization: massive increase of trade and capital flows with the rise of information and communication technologyGlobal capital: availability and willing to take risk in fast-growing economies, but volatile and unstable.Neo-liberal Agenda Washington Consensus (1989): liberalization of trade/finance/(foreign) investment, privatization, deregulation, etc.
Structural challenges and opportunities for emerging economies
*
Backgrounds for Growth
From ISI (Import Substitute Industrialization) to EOI (Export-Oriented Industrialization)The Four Dragons NICs (Newly Industrialized Countries): Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, SingaporeThe New Tigers: Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the PhilippinesFDI from Japan after 1985 Plaza AccordResults: around 10% of growth (1986-95)
*
What were the causes of the Financial Crisis?
4 views
Macroeconomic mismanagement (esp. exchange rates)Regulatory and structural problems (esp. in the financial sector)Volatility of intl financial markets* Political uncertainty (esp. on govt. policy and regime change)
*
Intl Contexts before the Crisis
Chinese devaluation in 1994 the full rise of Chinese export compete w/ SE AsiaProlonged economic recession in Japan lower capacity to absorb SE Asian exportCollapse of semiconductor prices hurt Korea and Malaysia
*
Towards the Financial Crisis
East Asian economic model: debt-financing (bank loan) > equity (stock market)Availability of global capital = cheap money for Asian businesses capital liberalization (esp. offshore banking)
rapid increase of private short-term loans
Pegged exchange rates to US$ = guarantee for unhedged loans and reassurance against currency for investors
*
Why Thailand?
Weak financial supervision after liberalization too many unproductive/speculative loans, esp. in real estate and stock market Also unhealthy corporate governance and indecisive govt.Worsening macroeconomic situations: deficit in Balance of Payment, Trade Balance investors began to call back loans Unlikely to keep pegged exchange rate hedge funds speculative currency attackDevaluation (July 2, 1997) skyrocketing import bills/debt-servicing costs scarce capitals heightened interest rates liquidity problem bankruptcies chain reaction
*
The Effects
Contagion to other countries, esp. Korea, Malaysia, and IndonesiaEconomies with high foreign reserves (HK) and also with open exchange-rate regime (Singapore) were able to largely escape the crisis. Social effects: hundreds of thousands of workers lost jobs, even millions in IndonesiaPolitical unrest and regime changes in Indonesia and Thailand
*
What are the roles of intl institutions (IMF, ADB) after the crisis?
IMF bailout package of $120 billion to Thailand, Indonesia, Korea and the PhilippinesRestrictive conditions keep interest rates high, restrictive bank loans severe liquidity problem more bankruptcies And even more neo-liberal agenda privatization, deregulation, liberalization of foreign investment massive asset sell-off to foreign companies
*
Criticism against IMF
Wrong prescriptions
- too restrictive
- same prescriptions to all countries
- gave priority to investor protection
the Wall St-Treasury-IMF Complex
*
ASEAN and the Crisis
ASEAN financial ministers started to talk in early 1997, but too optimistic.Later on emphasize macroeconomic coordination and financial supervisory mechanisms also through peer review, but ASEAN lacks capability and the norm of non-interferenceNeed to get help from Japan and ChinaASEAN+3The Chiang Mai Initiative (for swap arrangement)Asia Bonds
*
Japan, China, the U.S. and the Crisis
Japan proposed AMF (Asian Monetary Fund), but was shot down by the U.S.Then substituted with a moderate Miyazawa FundChina loaned some money to SE Asia during the crisis, but more importantly not to devalue its currency.The U.S. offered only moral support and urged for reforms.
*
Consequences in IR
The U.S. reputation was tarnished by predatory practices of takeover and the Wall St-Treasury-IMF Complex.Compared to friendly supports from Japanese companies.The growth of nationalism and Islamic activism in SE AsiaMore regionalism in East Asia (i.e. ASEAN+3) with Japan and China playing key roles (stemmed from anger + anxiety)China and Japan compete for leadership in East Asia.
The Current Financial Crisis and its Impact on Emerging Markets
LILIANA ROJAS-SUREZ
Interamerican Development Bank
Washington DC, May 2008
*
Hypotheses about the Origin of the Current Financial Turmoil
Highly expansive monetary policy in industrial countries.The persistence of global macroeconomic imbalances.Technological developments in financial markets, which led to the creation of complex instruments.Insufficient transparency of non-bank entities operations and off-balance sheet bank operations.Inadequate regulation for the current sophisticated financial and equity markets.
*
Hypotheses about the Origin of the Current Financial Turmoil
ALL the advanced hypotheses are part of the problem.
But there is one more:
A not-yet learned lesson: capital markets complement, not substitute the banking system.
All financial crisis are characterized by the presence of incentives for excessive risk taking.
*
The Crisis: Policies and Incentives
Excepting the period 2005-2006, monetary policy has remained expansive in industrial countries (with periods of negative real interest rates).
*
The Crisis: Policies and Incentives
The main reasons that prevented a restrictive monetary policy in the US:
The vulnerability of the economic recovery after the 2001 recession, especially in the context of geopolitical risks.
Low inflation expectations.
*
The Crisis: Policies and Incentives
Despite the stock markets crash in 2001, monetary policy stabilized real consumption growth in the period 2000-2006, through its effects on the consumers wealth. This was possible because of the large increase in housing prices associated with low interest rates.
Over the last decade, consumption has offset declines in investments. This responds to the consumers perception of greater wealth, through the value of stocks at first and then through the value of real state.
*
The Crisis: Policies and Incentives
The large global liquidity (low interest rates) created incentives for:
The aggressive expansion of financial non-bank intermediaries (mortgage lenders, hedge funds) with increasing demand for high-yield assets.The use of financial products that saved capital for banks through securitization. (Under Basel I, mortgages held on banks balance sheets are subject to a 50% capital charge. There is no capital charge when mortgages are sold to a SIV.)The use of housing equity to get individual funding (home equity loans).
In contrast to the 2001 crisis, in 2008 the American consumer is highly indebted.
*
The Crisis: Policies and Incentives
The Mortgage Loans Expansion in the Industrial World
Before:
Traditional Relationship between Borrower and Creditor
Bank
Borrower
- Pays interest and
principal
- Lends money
- Manages delinquencies
*
The Crisis: Policies and Incentives
The Mortgage Loans Expansion in the Industrial World
Now:
Mortgage Broker
Creditors:
Banks and others
Borrower
Loan
Servicer
Monthly payments
Issuer of Structured
Products -securities- (SIV)
Monthly payments
Loan
Cash
Investors (investment banks,
hedge funds, pension funds,
mutual funds, etc.)
Cash
Securities
Monthly payments
Fuente: Shila Bair, FDIC
Trustee
Underwriter
Rating Agencies
Insurers (monolines)
*
The Crisis: Policies and Incentives
The system, though complex, can work if risks are correctly assessed.The problem is that under conditions of large liquidity, the quest for returns encourages excessive risk taking and exposes the systems vulnerabilities:Market participants that work for fees (mortgage brokers, payments receivers) dont have incentives to monitor the quality of loans, only to increase the quantity of loans.The same thing happens with the credit rating agencies which supply ratings for the structured products and do not face any financial responsibility to cover losses from their mistakes.Regulatory Arbitrage: different financial institutions undertaking similar activities face different regulations (especially capital requirements).Principal-Agent Problem: huge disparity in traders maximum loss (zero bonus) vs. investors losses (the full capital invested).
*
The Crisis: Policies and Incentives
But the largest problem is that, if an adverse shock to the system occurs (in this case, the generalized fall of housing prices), all the involved financial institutions lose capital.Because banks provide liquidity to capital markets and hold structured products as assets, a complex system in crisis might collapse to the simple system: bank-borrower.This trend is already happening:Banks have absorbed many SIVs into their books.Banks faced pressures from authorities to finance insurers (monolines).Many mortgage brokers have declared bankruptcy.
*
Would Basel II Helped Prevent the Crisis?
Most likely not!
Under the Standardized Approach Basel II emphasizes the reliance on external credit ratings. The current crisis has seriously questioned the credibility of these agencies for the adequate assessment of risks.For large and sophisticated banks, Basel II relies on the banks internal risk models for assessing credit risk. During the current crisis, large banks were heavily affected using their own internal models!Because of the large demand from investors for mortgage-backed structured products, a reduction in capital charges (from 50 to 35 percent in Basel II for mortgage held on banks balance sheets) would not have prevented excessive securitization.Basel II does not properly take into account liquidity risk. Funding for SIVs collapsed when doubts about the quality of their assets emerged. Under huge liquidity constraints, many SIVs were forced to sell their assets at very low prices.
*
And Moving Forward?
Under current circumstances, when the value of the fundamentals is adjusting (the decrease in housing prices)
*
And Moving Forward?
The systems equilibrium involves a lower size of the banking system (according to the available capital)
And thats already happening.
*
And Moving Forward?
With a lower lending capacity to corporations (affecting investment) and with a poorer consumer (decrease in wealth), the chances of a prolonged US slowdown or recession are very high.
Consumer confidence is at levels of past recessions.
*
Effects of the Current Financial Turmoil on Emerging Markets
Up to now, the effects of the financial turmoil in industrial countries on emerging markets have been:
Mild and mostly limited to financial variables
Different between regions and between countries
HAVE NOT BEEN AN OBSTACLE TO THE CONDUCT OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY
*
Effects of the Current Financial Turmoil on Emerging Markets
A most important current feature of many emerging markets is their ability to tighten monetary policy -increase interest rates- in the presence of inflationary pressures.
Source: Central Banks and IFS-IMF
*
This contrasts with monetary policy in industrialized countries where fears of a significant slowdown in economic growth are keeping interest rates low and decreasing
in spite of expectations of higher inflation.
Effects of the Current Financial Turmoil on Emerging Markets
*
What Factors might weaken the Performance of Emerging Markets?
Severe and protracted recession in the US / Banking crisis (a mild recession is already priced in).High inflation leading to increases in industrial countries interest rates (more relevant in 2009).The China factor and the sustainability of high commodity prices.
*
The External Risks affecting Emerging Markets
US Recession / Banking Crisis
Without doubt the worst case scenario for global growth and emerging markets performance is a systemic banking crisis in the US.This worst case scenario can only materialize if the US enters in a vicious circle where:
severe decline in the value of banks assets loss of bank capital
credit crunch financing problems in corporations and non-bank
financial institutions recession increase in severity of bad
banks assets banking crisis prolonged recession
This is still a relatively low probability scenario, however, because the Fed and the Treasury are currently aligned to prevent its occurrence.
*
The External Risks affecting Emerging Markets
US Recession / Banking Crisis
While a mild US recession would find emerging markets in good standing, a severe and prolonged recession would increase risk aversion, hurting investment inflows to emerging markets.
Foreign direct investment tend to decline sharply in the face of global slowdowns.
*
The External Risks affecting Emerging Markets
US Recession / Banking Crisis
Trade flows would also be affected, especially if the US financial troubles expand to other industrial countries, particularly Europe (some markets estimations calculate that UK residential properties are 30% overvalued).
Export growth has suffered the most in periods of global slowdowns.
Re-emerging calls for trade protectionism in the US exports are also a potential threat for emerging markets exports.
*
The External Risks affecting Emerging Markets
The Costs of Preventing a US Financial Meltdown: Inflation
Concerns about inflation are keeping long-term interest rates high.
A medium-term risk (2009 onwards) is a sudden increase in interest rates in industrial countries to contain inflation.This risk, which will affect emerging markets financing costs, has a low probability under current circumstances, when fears of a prolonged recession in the US is the main driver of monetary policy.
*
The External Risks affecting Emerging Markets
A Decline in Commodity Prices?
Although, as stated before, global exports are at risk in the face of a US-led global slowdown, the sustainability of high commodity prices is less risky in the short and medium-term due to two factors:
Cyclical
There is an inverse correlation between the value of the dollar and the price of commodities.This is because commodities (especially oil and gold and food, more recently) are perceived as a hedge against dollar weakness and the risk of inflation.
*
The External Risks affecting Emerging Markets
A Decline in Commodity Prices?
Cyclical
and the dollar is expected to depreciate further, especially with respect to Asian currencies. Recent policy signals by the Chinese authorities to control inflation point towards further increases in interest rates in China and further appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar.
*
The External Risks affecting Emerging Markets
A Decline in Commodity Prices?
Structural Factors
China, a major importer of many commodities -second importer of oil-, will continue a strong path of growth in the coming years.Supply problems in the precious and industrial metals are a long-term issue, especially given South Africas power crisis (SA produces 69% of platinum, 30% of palladium and 18% of worlds supply of gold). Supply problems of aluminum are also large.Land and water constraints supporting high prices for agricultural commodities.
*
The External Risks affecting Emerging Markets
A Decline in Commodity Prices?
Structural Factors
And the markets are forecasting a continuation in the upward trend of major commodities prices.
*
The External Risks affecting Emerging Markets
A Decline in Commodity Prices?
Also oil prices will remain high, supported by: (a) Chinas strong demand, (b) ageing infrastructure leading to unplanned outages and (c) climate change leading to extreme weather conditions.
Future prices anticipate a modest decline, but these prices have not been effective predictors of oil returns in the past.
*
In Conclusion
Prospects in the industrial economies (especially in the US) arent encouraging in the short-term.The good news is that, at least in the short-term, investors are increasing their investments in commodities and emerging markets.The bad news is that if the financial problems remain severe and prolonged, there will be adverse effects on the sustainability of growth in emerging markets.
*
The Financial Crisis and its learning's:
Theoretical and Policy-oriented
Jacques SAPIR, PhD.
Professor of Economics,
EHESS-Paris
Director CEMI-EHESS -Paris
I. The creeping financial world crisis
The US Subprime crisis.The banking crisis.The Currency crisis
I.I. The Subprime crisis
I. Subprime and Subprime-ARM:Mortgages where the debt to income ratio is over 55% (highly indebted households) or mortgages where the loan to good value is over 85% (high leverage loans).ARM: Adjustable Rates Mortgage.II. Alt A:Debt to income ratio or loan to value ratio are under Subprime thresholds but documentation incomplete (so-called fast track loans).III. Jumbos:Loans of over 417,000 USD.
Whats the Subprime relevance
Subprime and Alt A have a relatively low share in the US Mortgage market (around 15% each). The traditionally subsidised mortgage brokers Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac where making more than 55% of mortgages.But Subprime and other specials developed fast since 1998. Subprime loans were over 1300 billions USD by March 2007. They were at 150 Billions in 2001 and 600 Billions in 2005..And they were backed by a powerful string of financial derivatives. It is the collateralization process which gave Subprime mortgages their relevance.
The development of Mortgage Based Securities
Credit Default Swaps (CDS).Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO).Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLO).
Selling risk on financial markets: MBS are actually a kind of insurance system for the emitter and they are attractive bonds for buyers till the default rate is low (usually 0.5%).But MBS have spread the risk throughout the financial system and everybody can become an insurance company if it buy a CDS or a CDO.
MBS: an industry which grew too fast...
MBS have developed extremely fast in 8 years.Risk has been spread-out among Banks and Hedge-Funds through obligations baskets sold by SPV working from off-shore zones.Weak collateralization could induce a major liquidity crunch.
US Household indebtedness in GDP %
The current crisis compared to 40 years of indebtedness cycles
Mortgaged loans have been made so easy that they had been used as a proxy for an income policy.
The US economy paradox: Fast growth but an impoverished middle-class.From 2000 to 2006 if the average income increased by 3% a year, the median income has been stable.Lower income households have lost ground. From 1997 to 2004 the 2nd lowest decile lost 12% when the 2nd best decile gained 10%.Poverty is gaining ground: in the USA 20% of children are under the poverty line against 16% in GB and 7% in France and Germany.The 0.1% wealthiest part of the population is accumulating 7% of the national income against 2% in France and Germany.As a result indebtedness has been used to maintain consumption. The average household debt ratio is 120% of the yearly income and households saving ratio was 1.5% of GDP in 2006.
I.II. The Banking crisis
Banks have been the main user of MBS (40% of cumulative total).Strong competition in a deregulated market has made Subprime-ARM based CDS attractive to boost Banks profit rates.The use of SPV and SPV-based Securities-baskets by banks has decreased transparency.New accounting rules (Mark to Market) have increased Banks and Insurance companies vulnerability to financial market fluctuations.
The Body Count(early December 2007).
Total losses in real-estate properties is 107 Billions USD.Total financial losses is around 400 Billions USD.Banks are accounting for at least 50% of losses.Butnobody knows precisely how much has been lost. Confidence has been broken and the inter-bank monetary market has collapsed.
Requiescat in Pace.New Century Financial (Subprime lender)American Home Mortgage (Subprime lender).Ameriquest (Subprime lender)Netbank (Internet Bank)NorthernRock (Bank)
Whos next?
Known losses.Citigroup, investment Bank, USD 11.0 Bln.Merry Lynch, investment bank, USD 12.5 Bln (and may be 15.0)Morgan Stanley, investment bank, USD 3.7 Bln.HSBC, bank, USD 3.4 Bln.Freddie Mac, Mortgage Lender, USD 3.7 Bln.UBS-AG Investment bank, USD 3.6 Bln.Propagation into Europe.The German Banking System is highly vulnerable. Deutsche Bank acknowledge a loss of Euro 2.2 Bln.The Spanish Banking System: dead on Arrival?Insurance Companies: Swiss-Re acknowledge for more than USD 1,1 Bln of losses.
I.III. The Currency Crisis
The banking crisis raises the ghost of a generalized Credit Crunch.Central Banks are reacting by injecting liquidity.But the US Economy is so much indebted that the value of the USD is in doubt.Currency change rates are now extremely volatile.A major crisis is possible in 2008 when we will reach the peak of the Subprime crisis (March-April 2008).
The US Debt is increasing fast.
Is the US Dollar to spin down?
NOThe US Treasury needs to keep the USD attractive to sell T-Bonds.East-Asian countries want to defend their competitiveness and would try to prop-up the USD.The ECB is pouring as much money as it can to prevent a bank crisis.A brutal fall of the USD could have widespread political implications.
YesThe US Government cant afford a recession in an electoral year and any increase of interest rates would have devastating effects.The FED is to bail-out US Banks.Commodity exporters are beginning to use other currencies.The wealth risk on USD denominated Funds is too high. A flight from the USD is to happen.
II. Theoretical and Political lessons
II.I. The current crisis validates some important theoretical findings.
(A): Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection have been proeminent in the Subprime crisis.(B) The Herd Mentality validates Herbert Simons theory of Bounded Rationality. (C) Markets are not spontaneously information-efficient (Stiglitz).(D) Uncertainty and Surprise are shaping decision-makers preferences.(E) Rationality is context-dependent.(F) Institution matters.(G) Market-value is not the value.
II.II. Keynes is back..
(and so are Minsky and Shackle)
(A) When uncertainty is prevalent credit is crunching: this is the preference for liquidity.(B) Agents are reacting not to what happens but to how they understand other agents reaction to the new situation: this is the Beauty Pageant metaphor.(C) When a surprise comes from the Unexpected it can have disastrous consequences.(D) Money-managers are not stabilizing but de-stabilizing the economy.(E) A market does not generate institutions it needs.
II.III. Policy implications.
Central Banks need to be reactive and not bounded by a single target. They have to interact with governments. Full independence is not workable.Financial markets need regulations and supervision. Regulation cant be fully market based. Wealth redistribution is to be consistent with the accumulation process.There cant be good finance where the real sector is not working well.Change rates in a fully liberalised financial environment doesnt reflect actual economic performances.
The New Financial Order and the Current Financial Crisis
Robert J. Shiller
Professor of Economics, Yale University
Co-Founder and Chief Economist, MacroMarkets LLC
New Economic School, Moscow
March 14, 2008
*
New Financial Order
Advances in mathematical financeAdvances in behavioral financeAdvances in information technologyDemocratization of finance
*
Books
Discussing the need and history of financial innovation in risk management
Macro Markets, 1993
The New Financial Order, 2003
*
New Markets in Progress
Home price marketsOil price marketsNatural gas marketsComponents of consumer price indexMedical costsEducation costsPersonal income risksGDP Longevity
*
Current Financial Crisis
International Stock market boom 1990s, collapse 2000-2003International housing market boom Late 1990s-2000sCollapse of housing boom in US since 2006, following in other countriesUS Subprime crisis leads to freeze up of financial markets, systemic effects
*
Spread of Crisis to Europe
IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, and SachsenLB Bank in GermanyFunds sponsored by BNP Paribas in France Northern Rock Building Society in the United Kingdom
*
The Crisis as Opportunity
Example of stock market crash of 1929US Reaction in 1930s: financial progress: creation of Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Fannie Mae, Homeowners Loan Corporation, Federal Home Loan Bank System, Federal Housing Administration European reaction: not so congenial to marketsThe current crisis should be dealt with with financial progress again
*
Real S&P500 Price and Earnings
January 1871 to February 2008
Figure 1.1
75.02081287936.7586317909
73.78174106936.5583769839
74.48163352016.4626146221
79.48292070176.7074194685
83.39023246066.8633936182
84.00658724426.9715010161
82.43799951566.9715010161
84.81916865767.0830203472
83.69600172026.9170249355
78.15200403986.8106321603
79.00333305986.8106321603
78.88518235496.6569774139
80.88227557916.6985835228
81.21512444986.7401896316
82.63554999766.6813465524
83.08428040126.5761689121
83.08428040126.616267503
82.88303252886.7049626705
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82.02781015136.8356508459
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82.09607967717.0202885036
79.39521003596.8568590486
82.5160709266.9984044375
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82.00921253536.9269917384
81.37224777786.9668020358
80.2575594527.0066123331
82.19056374297.201846427
83.50737238287.4620041587
83.33968689617.5039255304
83.33968689617.5458469021
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71.89404815027.8071102407
71.53850550668.1012045221
76.43312553787.9545786759
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81.7275859247.8322269844
80.53572529597.8322269844
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78.08081138058.0172261685
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82.18812331768.3458138468
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82.86220903557.7565081517
83.05139216117.5994861574
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82.67302590987.2835503376
81.34874403037.1265283433
83.38587077867.0276924961
84.11111559456.9290621542
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507.102631578936.2392259211
46836.7211611765
432.049090909137.1968831169
434.351201716737.1788991845
416.961228813637.0037139407
429.306778242736.8329707113
405.6682537.235264625
388.5737.32443
385.91375510237.5641632653
338.111052631637.7857752632
320.2383637.85185404
283.519209486237.9163241107
286.185205479537.2431057143
293.367844660236.6539281165
272.156878612736.0738728324
293.303953934735.3425201152
321.315428571434.4849276571
334.802049335933.7679316888
337.278487712732.9900321739
356.674060150432.1573928195
363.049253731331.2756716418
359.379963099630.670392952
332.422209944830.3553720442
326.584285714329.9314285714
339.760327868930.0236193443
343.015226039830.0603128029
336.580540540530.204972973
366.88338129531.0344478058
379.683870967731.8038835484
380.88837209332.6260465116
382.533689839633.2480339037
377.216283185833.7456866903
377.448591549334.2966549296
384.317338003534.4852889667
379.006620209134.6719512195
385.73437534.9171875
370.641450777235.172746114
367.460689655235.5478275862
378.862886597935.8598969072
373.6835.880012
359.908629441635.7175461929
356.073277310935.6781176471
347.665535.778483
344.922985074635.9965343284
344.488863261936.1524217463
345.936393442636.3084757377
336.37536.5222382353
330.065765472336.7349511401
320.481233766236.8208116883
320.765234248836.8464943457
318.17217391336.9313043478
304.106436.72864
297.92031796536.5285532591
295.039305993736.2736908517
305.551267605636.3303126761
318.054976744236.3299693023
315.44779141136.2735889571
311.540547945236.3607150685
331.535454545536.5572881818
329.042706766936.6412330827
315.743070044737.1085988077
295.93362017837.7352080119
298.977341211238.3559527326
307.451332357239.0158855051
299.381157742439.5498266281
302.020916905440.1286532951
304.564589235140.3501844193
293.750181818240.50972
296.238174273940.7218257261
295.877154582840.9004790698
306.482926829341.1306365854
306.583914209141.3013136729
292.655585106441.1865827128
287.736758893341.0192750988
295.99322033940.8020338983
300.199742930640.6130460154
307.758935361240.4295946768
275.278651685440.2006741573
267.839.45058
277.281418092938.7645601467
291.835066505438.0455139057
305.07714631237.7908585248
312.234093637537.2658343337
317.153571428636.7045714286
323.350471698136.5073113208
334.250526315836.3562105263
325.783314020936.165608343
321.951724137935.6809655172
307.634129692835.1239590444
316.970847457634.6954576271
317.672727272734.8005272727
308.864365256134.8655570156
307.531788079534.890794702
296.817248908334.7092251092
295.707042253534.6435859155
267.317381974234.5049570815
270.127194860834.4987152034
276.229882604134.4556883671
277.364680851134.4129361702
261.965853658533.8940935313
254.901691331933.3783190275
246.925714285733.0051428571
258.090410958932.3926767123
255.885594989631.6192377871
238.173402061930.7649690722
236.30430.168072
236.466939611129.6678708291
263.303779366729.1699284985
284.588798370728.4230649695
296.774081632727.8221940816
300.795491803327.2744262295
310.731901840527.0608079755
315.792441266626.8752704801
326.763432073526.7175893769
336.831845841826.64901643
348.381653225826.60799375
352.199396984926.6477788945
352.054054054127.0400702703
341.331736526927.456397006
349.675471698127.8150943396
349.679405940628.2397918812
343.78577075128.6905041502
341.783218163929.1679960513
343.904219823429.8436113837
323.509570312530.5411132812
323.084210526331.3231578947
321.925897187231.8112219205
318.955125725332.3572439072
310.924397299932.899903568
305.68357348733.0162536023
331.317129186633.1317129187
333.149142857133.2146285714
329.633.1734
332.633.2266
32933.28
342.549383886333.050625782
359.41075471732.7290281132
355.090601503832.4411090226
355.793826005631.7771562208
362.907176141731.148387698
369.724349442430.5526579926
376.071428571430.2484506494
367.18529.945565
358.000554016629.616232687
360.751793928229.1067799448
381.591743119328.6274955963
399.427081427328.1506495883
400.063138686128.0159489051
422.741445562728.0350411711
449.654227941228.1058088235
461.535911602228.2803220994
461.231404958728.3250231405
471.782465753428.2915616438
461.973698630128.3813791781
470.346399270728.4190973564
455.408166969128.3794010889
453.27688123328.118250408
467.554891304327.8573820652
473.802352941227.5971764706
500.932553956827.8149192446
530.08548387128.1050983871
549.513826940228.3680642284
540.608518189927.7934070985
538.32413793127.2731655172
559.2496916326.7564052863
573.875746924427.5741652021
606.395454545528.3131818182
583.636695652229.0444869565
511.796357328729.9674849957
447.114384748730.9390379549
439.814558058931.9367417678
455.966292134832.5152202247
468.58533.0908881034
480.312618025833.6056137339
472.276345004335.279906234
459.018382978736.9998211064
483.130677966138.675440678
478.248607594939.1401432911
466.682521008439.6011178151
471.125208681139.9577462437
486.026955074940.4262643927
474.418952618540.9938239401
483.243983402541.5257759336
496.327332782842.0156564822
509.180921052642.5356578947
504.027964022942.980997547
517.176116978142.8500001625
533.984975767442.7550321486
549.324899274842.7988074134
561.882154340841.8322025723
585.826324237640.9030497592
585.1310439.912912
582.503503184739.2807565287
569.07164416238.7465526608
582.197938144338.2453608247
561.991224489837.1773469388
543.69351562536.3285
553.843636363635.46
552.526826997735.1816367727
570.918343653334.8772834365
584.281247113234.4677136259
581.45949386534.5939570552
529.300531914934.5345592705
500.567792012134.5022155237
484.490426966334.0851761798
496.26363228733.7987816143
517.449551569533.5889686099
509.273358098133.1441528975
565.964065281932.8503191395
580.756832.5572
591.424615384631.7197557692
587.055265486730.8393880531
585.793191176529.9640441176
587.932731277529.1314537445
600.348755490528.2598682284
594.346355685127.3534402332
592.990742358126.3683768559
589.802264150925.3494849057
593.329992748424.3892820885
634.51446777724.4709270094
626.876883116924.4990402597
615.865154343124.4918880115
615.057677419424.8844658065
625.332755905525.2760702935
613.278616262525.6114835949
622.13188612126.0514448399
624.670390347826.4707310149
623.721783439526.8876433121
612.641043723627.312651622
627.113408450727.7932676056
646.552389006328.3323044397
642.773057503528.5624403927
650.049056603828.8305660377
660.192869080829.0968245125
648.004528.767375
650.274965325928.4791955617
653.472548476528.1918144044
652.349542936328.7168559557
660.495704419929.1611187845
666.546822880829.6233356306
670.537680164730.2096087852
668.618888888930.8966666667
673.038888888931.6044444444
681.338536251731.9165596443
676.992147239332.2048601227
663.575991847832.4913451087
638.986689280933.6331343284
643.793491525434.7954033898
647.210797297335.8589189189
640.598652291136.769851752
656.16740939637.6253154362
658.244819277138.5254216867
653.367130434840.0351304348
648.555150300641.5150701403
640.3674949943.048496994
651.907185628743.7874251497
672.580198807244.5204771372
685.980118890445.2776089828
704.185951283745.9974524029
724.798856767446.7738172142
744.833508196747.5472655738
769.718832786947.8925114754
770.101805101448.1115631131
795.619856396948.3610182768
798.717970071647.6464344828
816.527460937547.1199675781
843.182032573346.5926775244
838.062512953446.3575066062
883.106029696646.2440347321
875.227630057846.0425433526
872.00257197746.2565451056
889.240344827646.5579310345
898.443522654846.9179706445
863.956318471347.3156495541
887.224462809947.7119454545
900.695361216748.0456273764
933.212103600849.1045230575
976.873278688550.22
986.938524590251.4283606557
1014.242187303651.9329539912
1053.514624060252.4345176692
1042.680652.9659
1004.267528089953.0355741573
1095.869793878853.2047159275
1151.258103555853.2740486588
1214.118841121553.2470280374
1214.407611940353.1869776119
1224.171290322653.0941935484
1239.568663366352.5630753713
1224.374934984552.1958081734
1256.510365778151.8600867948
1255.467920792151.6856188119
1331.684027177351.5117974058
1398.152885326851.3386189889
1441.411250.9976
1433.865184275250.6578378378
1432.067079754650.350196319
1492.498455882449.91000625
1385.036548347649.4707648715
1313.855647921849.0327261614
1325.842573170748.7504328049
1469.61559756148.587859878
1529.130750457648.4547040879
1600.675362142448.6230066908
1595.925519756848.8498115544
1635.864218181848.9868363636
1691.338483754549.7482310469
1687.929855595750.8633212996
1675.866606498251.9784115523
1744.67002999453.0605878824
1673.066391382454.1686894075
1653.404419297255.1398213222
1627.717633769356.7985612366
1740.609625668558.520855615
1787.7660.2768983957
1778.609324644661.2503317536
1722.591413427662.0348056537
1774.12047897262.6633411215
1796.628231173463.0283712785
1741.876897959263.3560116618
1785.897772621863.4243155452
1795.2187564.000625
1810.40437564.72375
1779.915544041465.1077720207
1682.548758620763.5027586207
1666.945571510661.9743825388
1610.884241379360.5172413793
1606.417350085758.3088977727
1564.22610921556.2558361775
1417.366685584654.3113734393
1416.50821933350.6638439796
1505.570748452547.0185931345
1465.574865168543.5279438202
1429.054478873240.2967774648
1398.265352112736.9429971831
1233.882131239533.4385081324
1275.913640967932.121339336
1341.097001127430.743167982
1364.585500848929.4267911715
1355.890604178429.3642913608
1303.718233970729.252632171
1358.99426174529.0929530201
1302.405216907729.7276307008
1264.127085650730.5241156841
1187.062879377431.3031906615
1056.613292615232.6716490838
1063.547482014433.9617266187
1009.728099447535.301679558
992.747258687334.1784555985
1056.984324324333.1136458908
1046.806567164232.1197014925
1038.326384149733.033021464
962.744500273133.8271217914
967.971107491934.6655374593
1019.805865070736.3565723613
1074.186245231638.0342452316
1132.677191072439.6093086554
1136.64450244741.1046003263
1128.900422535242.4812676056
1159.255205183643.8712095032
1182.46777297347.7739459459
1198.422439024451.7691707317
1234.849614758555.6953011394
1287.844017278656.6603455724
1293.188055853957.585112782
1263.128004268958.4375667022
1269.604340425559.8006914894
1228.162178741460.993442623
1257.560653663762.3362677912
1229.630464625163.0354487856
1210.188728232263.6023113456
1239.490236966864.0672037915
1232.500921948764.0184284966
1288.89405235664.271591623
1327.134135575464.7957435628
1304.692952281165.3114001049
1317.216256517265.5846611053
1301.841386445965.7185307812
1260.169362795566.3761562179
1276.4767.5422222222
1301.767866323968.6047095116
1317.31701125969.4419549642
1312.786466395170.2357433809
1298.685875251570.5213380282
1260.174578313371.5638253012
1318.775921052673.3369736842
1350.568810975674.8336280488
1358.046081694475.2375491679
1353.107649723276.0541217916
1363.671891891976.5981081081
1360.977677419476.5859354839
1341.610476.8386666667
1300.727461803877.316875308
1304.209061425178.4963636364
1329.444776851479.7470622854
1367.747875800981.5517102021
1422.833637264683.0189791873
1451.352774193584.1668387097
1478.18658077385.0644499504
1481.741048138585.3743478776
1495.215603025185.4857370306
1442.90618060785.2749912346
1491.356860164785.3257792013
1530.404493409485.4050656651
1530.527251958285.836238673
1537.508706234883.7281407976
1473.39068955481.7481206443
1512.27143747979.3954626121
1551.92210054752007.7916666665
1466.33520318592007.8749999999
1483.19208135752007.9583333332
1379.522008.0416666665
Price
Earnings
Real Price
Real Earnings
Year
Real S&P Composite Stock Price Index
Real S&P Composite Earnings
Figure 1.3
18.47395230143.7
18.1472581653.6933333333
18.27011914023.6866666667
17.95010827823.68
18.86971869323.6733333333
19.02871073113.6666666667
18.11636718743.66
17.2862435543.6533333333
16.72483664883.6466666667
16.26198941123.64
16.47864231663.6333333333
15.95875420613.6266666667
15.678764163.62
15.15386152843.6208333333
15.09167029953.6216666667
14.91699716843.6225
14.56710320223.6233333333
14.32740489013.6241666667
15.24055976123.625
15.52542933153.6258333333
16.08110662453.6266666667
15.75558103053.6275
15.19267031323.6283333333
15.38212833213.6291666667
15.27025911913.63
14.75759014623.6291666667
15.05125412143.6283333333
15.4820672223.6275
15.33549763733.6266666667
15.90338838863.6258333333
15.9487831273.625
15.19681087663.6241666667
15.49469242583.6233333333
15.04805627023.6225
15.40821814243.6216666667
14.89640394193.6208333333
14.4328217223.62
14.80596022883.6116666667
14.7360234543.6033333333
14.353