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April 9, 2020 JLBC Finance Advisory Committee Revenue and Budget Update

Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

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Page 1: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

April 9 2020

JLBC

Finance Advisory CommitteeRevenue and Budget Update

JLBC 2

Summary

Through at least rsquo21 the state revenue forecast will be linked to the future of the COVID-19 pandemic

Current virus forecasts are extremely speculative and change weekly

We currently project a $(11) B rsquo21 shortfall ndash could be wrong by $500 M in either direction

The projections are too uncertain to develop definitive plans for resolving the shortfall in the very near term

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once prior to the start of the fiscal year

JLBC 3

Current COVID Epidemiological Forecasting

Like revenue forecasting virus modeling is highly speculative

National models continuously updated with mortality hospitalization testing and other data

Two state-level projections IHME and COVID Act Now

IHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31

ndash Through April 8 AZ had 80 total deaths

IHME has a broad range of possible outcomes

IHME has a different methodology and lower infectiondeath estimates than other national models

JLBC 4

IHME Estimate of Arizona COVID-19 Deaths - Lower 47 s Appear Related to Broader Social Distancing

Source Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

April 2 Update April 7 Update

Chart1

Total DeathsProjection1387Low556High2560
Actual
Projection
Low
High
Deaths Per Day
COVID-19 Deaths
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
5
2
2
3
4
5
6
6
6
6
7
6
8
8
7
9
9
8
10
10
9
12
12
10
14
13
11
16
15
12
19
16
13
22
18
15
25
20
16
28
22
16
31
24
17
35
25
18
38
27
19
42
29
19
45
31
20
49
32
20
53
34
20
56
35
20
59
37
20
62
38
19
65
39
19
68
39
18
70
40
17
72
40
16
73
40
15
74
40
14
74
40
13
74
39
12
74
39
11
73
38
10
72
37
9
70
35
8
68
34
7
66
33
6
64
32
5
61
30
5
59
28
4
56
26
3
54
25
3
51
23
2
48
21
2
46
20
2
43
18
1
40
16
1
38
15
1
35
14
1
32
12
1
30
11
0
27
9
0
25
8
0
23
7
0
21
6
0
19
6
0
17
5
0
15
4
0
13
4
0
12
3
0
10
3
0
9
2
0
8
2
0
7
2
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
4
1
0
3
1
0
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet1

Chart1

Total DeathsProjection775Low230High2361
Actual
Projection
Low
High
Deaths Per Day
COVID-19 Deaths
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
5
2
2
3
4
5
3
9
11
12
1
8
13
4
27
13
3
30
14
4
31
15
4
36
16
4
39
18
5
39
19
5
44
20
5
47
21
6
49
21
6
48
23
7
54
23
7
57
23
7
60
24
7
63
24
6
67
24
6
67
24
6
73
24
5
75
24
5
74
23
5
78
23
4
77
22
4
80
21
3
77
20
3
77
19
3
77
18
2
73
17
2
71
16
2
68
15
1
64
14
1
61
13
1
57
12
1
52
11
1
50
10
1
45
9
0
41
8
0
37
7
0
35
6
0
30
5
0
28
5
0
25
4
0
22
4
0
19
3
0
17
3
0
15
2
0
13
2
0
11
2
0
9
1
0
8
1
0
7
1
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet1

JLBC 5

Longer Term Impact of COVID-19

Public health experts recommend gradually lifting social distancing once the incidence rate declines noticeably

ndash If this occurs economy will also improve gradually

As in prior pandemics there could be a 2nd wave later in the year

ndash We will be better prepared for the 2nd wave in terms of mitigation strategies but a vaccine may still be a year away

ndash A possible 2nd wave suggests being cautious with rsquo21 revenue growth rate

Arizona Economic Conditions

JLBC 7

Prior to COVID the State Was Doing Well- Put State in a Better Position for the COVID Recession

Through March General Fund revenues were up by 81

In the Index of Economic Momentum Arizona continued to rank 3rd among states based on last quarter data

But as we noted in our January presentation

ndash The forecast has no recession through rsquo23

bull Recessions are hard to predict usually due to ldquoshockrdquo

JLBC 8

Few Real-Time Indicators Available

Over the last 3 weeks 247000 new initial UI claims have been filed

Phoenix hotel occupancy rate fell by (71) in last week of March

Several restaurant chains reporting (70) decrease in sales

AHCCCS caseloads grew by 42000 in 1 month or an increase of 23

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
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    • ltlt13 ASCII85EncodePages false13 AllowTransparency false13 AutoPositionEPSFiles true13 AutoRotatePages All13 Binding Left13 CalGrayProfile (Gray Gamma 22)13 CalRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21)13 CalCMYKProfile (US Web Coated 050SWOP051 v2)13 sRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21)13 CannotEmbedFontPolicy Warning13 CompatibilityLevel 1713 CompressObjects Tags13 CompressPages true13 ConvertImagesToIndexed true13 PassThroughJPEGImages true13 CreateJobTicket false13 DefaultRenderingIntent Default13 DetectBlends true13 DetectCurves 0100013 ColorConversionStrategy sRGB13 DoThumbnails false13 EmbedAllFonts true13 EmbedOpenType false13 ParseICCProfilesInComments true13 EmbedJobOptions true13 DSCReportingLevel 013 EmitDSCWarnings false13 EndPage -113 ImageMemory 104857613 LockDistillerParams false13 MaxSubsetPct 10013 Optimize true13 OPM 113 ParseDSCComments true13 ParseDSCCommentsForDocInfo true13 PreserveCopyPage true13 PreserveDICMYKValues true13 PreserveEPSInfo true13 PreserveFlatness true13 PreserveHalftoneInfo false13 PreserveOPIComments false13 PreserveOverprintSettings true13 StartPage 113 SubsetFonts true13 TransferFunctionInfo Apply13 UCRandBGInfo Remove13 UsePrologue false13 ColorSettingsFile ()13 AlwaysEmbed [ true13 ]13 NeverEmbed [ true13 Arial-Black13 Arial-BlackItalic13 Arial-BoldItalicMT13 Arial-BoldMT13 Arial-ItalicMT13 ArialMT13 ArialNarrow13 ArialNarrow-Bold13 ArialNarrow-BoldItalic13 ArialNarrow-Italic13 ArialUnicodeMS13 CenturyGothic13 CenturyGothic-Bold13 CenturyGothic-BoldItalic13 CenturyGothic-Italic13 CourierNewPS-BoldItalicMT13 CourierNewPS-BoldMT13 CourierNewPS-ItalicMT13 CourierNewPSMT13 Georgia13 Georgia-Bold13 Georgia-BoldItalic13 Georgia-Italic13 Impact13 LucidaConsole13 Tahoma13 Tahoma-Bold13 TimesNewRomanMT-ExtraBold13 TimesNewRomanPS-BoldItalicMT13 TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT13 TimesNewRomanPS-ItalicMT13 TimesNewRomanPSMT13 Trebuchet-BoldItalic13 TrebuchetMS13 TrebuchetMS-Bold13 TrebuchetMS-Italic13 Verdana13 Verdana-Bold13 Verdana-BoldItalic13 Verdana-Italic13 ]13 AntiAliasColorImages false13 CropColorImages true13 ColorImageMinResolution 15013 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleColorImages true13 ColorImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 ColorImageResolution 15013 ColorImageDepth -113 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 113 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeColorImages true13 ColorImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterColorImages true13 ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 ColorImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 AntiAliasGrayImages false13 CropGrayImages true13 GrayImageMinResolution 15013 GrayImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleGrayImages true13 GrayImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 GrayImageResolution 15013 GrayImageDepth -113 GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 213 GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeGrayImages true13 GrayImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterGrayImages true13 GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 GrayImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 AntiAliasMonoImages false13 CropMonoImages true13 MonoImageMinResolution 120013 MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleMonoImages true13 MonoImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 MonoImageResolution 120013 MonoImageDepth -113 MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeMonoImages true13 MonoImageFilter CCITTFaxEncode13 MonoImageDict ltlt13 K -113 gtgt13 AllowPSXObjects true13 CheckCompliance [13 None13 ]13 PDFX1aCheck false13 PDFX3Check false13 PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false13 PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 3
3-Apr 9
4-Apr 11
5-Apr 12
6-Apr 1
7-Apr 8
8-Apr 13 4 27
9-Apr 13 3 30
10-Apr 14 4 31
11-Apr 15 4 36
12-Apr 16 4 39
13-Apr 18 5 39
14-Apr 19 5 44
15-Apr 20 5 47
16-Apr 21 6 49
17-Apr 21 6 48
18-Apr 23 7 54
19-Apr 23 7 57
20-Apr 23 7 60
21-Apr 24 7 63
22-Apr 24 6 67
23-Apr 24 6 67
24-Apr 24 6 73
25-Apr 24 5 75
26-Apr 24 5 74
27-Apr 23 5 78
28-Apr 23 4 77
29-Apr 22 4 80
30-Apr 21 3 77
1-May 20 3 77
2-May 19 3 77
3-May 18 2 73
4-May 17 2 71
5-May 16 2 68
6-May 15 1 64
7-May 14 1 61
8-May 13 1 57
9-May 12 1 52
10-May 11 1 50
11-May 10 1 45
12-May 9 0 41
13-May 8 0 37
14-May 7 0 35
15-May 6 0 30
16-May 5 0 28
17-May 5 0 25
18-May 4 0 22
19-May 4 0 19
20-May 3 0 17
21-May 3 0 15
22-May 2 0 13
23-May 2 0 11
24-May 2 0 9
25-May 1 0 8
26-May 1 0 7
27-May 1 0 6
28-May 1 0 5
29-May 1 0 4
30-May 1 0 3
31-May 0 0 3
1-Jun 0 0 2
2-Jun 0 0 2
3-Jun 0 0 1
4-Jun 0 0 1
5-Jun 0 0 1
6-Jun 0 0 1
7-Jun 0 0 1
8-Jun 0 0 0
9-Jun 0 0 0
10-Jun 0 0 0
11-Jun 0 0 0
12-Jun 0 0 0
13-Jun 0 0 0
14-Jun 0 0 0
15-Jun 0 0 0
16-Jun 0 0 0
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 776
Low 209
High 2334
43904 43904 43904 43904
43905 43905 43905 43905
43906 43906 43906 43906
43907 43907 43907 43907
43908 43908 43908 43908
43909 43909 43909 43909
43910 43910 43910 43910
43911 43911 43911 43911
43912 43912 43912 43912
43913 43913 43913 43913
43914 43914 43914 43914
43915 43915 43915 43915
43916 43916 43916 43916
43917 43917 43917 43917
43918 43918 43918 43918
43919 43919 43919 43919
43920 43920 43920 43920
43921 43921 43921 43921
43922 43922 43922 43922
43923 43923 43923 43923
43924 43924 43924 43924
43925 43925 43925 43925
43926 43926 43926 43926
43927 43927 43927 43927
43928 43928 43928 43928
43929 43929 43929 43929
43930 43930 43930 43930
43931 43931 43931 43931
43932 43932 43932 43932
43933 43933 43933 43933
43934 43934 43934 43934
43935 43935 43935 43935
43936 43936 43936 43936
43937 43937 43937 43937
43938 43938 43938 43938
43939 43939 43939 43939
43940 43940 43940 43940
43941 43941 43941 43941
43942 43942 43942 43942
43943 43943 43943 43943
43944 43944 43944 43944
43945 43945 43945 43945
43946 43946 43946 43946
43947 43947 43947 43947
43948 43948 43948 43948
43949 43949 43949 43949
43950 43950 43950 43950
43951 43951 43951 43951
43952 43952 43952 43952
43953 43953 43953 43953
43954 43954 43954 43954
43955 43955 43955 43955
43956 43956 43956 43956
43957 43957 43957 43957
43958 43958 43958 43958
43959 43959 43959 43959
43960 43960 43960 43960
43961 43961 43961 43961
43962 43962 43962 43962
43963 43963 43963 43963
43964 43964 43964 43964
43965 43965 43965 43965
43966 43966 43966 43966
43967 43967 43967 43967
43968 43968 43968 43968
43969 43969 43969 43969
43970 43970 43970 43970
43971 43971 43971 43971
43972 43972 43972 43972
43973 43973 43973 43973
43974 43974 43974 43974
43975 43975 43975 43975
43976 43976 43976 43976
43977 43977 43977 43977
43978 43978 43978 43978
43979 43979 43979 43979
43980 43980 43980 43980
43981 43981 43981 43981
43982 43982 43982 43982
43983 43983 43983 43983
43984 43984 43984 43984
43985 43985 43985 43985
43986 43986 43986 43986
43987 43987 43987 43987
43988 43988 43988 43988
43989 43989 43989 43989
43990 43990 43990 43990
43991 43991 43991 43991
43992 43992 43992 43992
43993 43993 43993 43993
43994 43994 43994 43994
43995 43995 43995 43995
43996 43996 43996 43996
43997 43997 43997 43997
43998 43998 43998 43998
43999 43999 43999 43999
44000 44000 44000 44000
44001 44001 44001 44001
44002 44002 44002 44002
44003 44003 44003 44003
44004 44004 44004 44004
44005 44005 44005 44005
44006 44006 44006 44006
44007 44007 44007 44007
44008 44008 44008 44008
44009 44009 44009 44009
44010 44010 44010 44010
44011 44011 44011 44011
44012 44012 44012 44012
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 6 6 6 6
3-Apr 7 6 8
4-Apr 8 7 9
5-Apr 9 8 10
6-Apr 10 9 12
7-Apr 12 10 14
8-Apr 13 11 16
9-Apr 15 12 19
10-Apr 16 13 22
11-Apr 18 15 25
12-Apr 20 16 28
13-Apr 22 16 31
14-Apr 24 17 35
15-Apr 25 18 38
16-Apr 27 19 42
17-Apr 29 19 45
18-Apr 31 20 49
19-Apr 32 20 53
20-Apr 34 20 56
21-Apr 35 20 59
22-Apr 37 20 62
23-Apr 38 19 65
24-Apr 39 19 68
25-Apr 39 18 70
26-Apr 40 17 72
27-Apr 40 16 73
28-Apr 40 15 74
29-Apr 40 14 74
30-Apr 40 13 74
1-May 39 12 74
2-May 39 11 73
3-May 38 10 72
4-May 37 9 70
5-May 35 8 68
6-May 34 7 66
7-May 33 6 64
8-May 32 5 61
9-May 30 5 59
10-May 28 4 56
11-May 26 3 54
12-May 25 3 51
13-May 23 2 48
14-May 21 2 46
15-May 20 2 43
16-May 18 1 40
17-May 16 1 38
18-May 15 1 35
19-May 14 1 32
20-May 12 1 30
21-May 11 0 27
22-May 9 0 25
23-May 8 0 23
24-May 7 0 21
25-May 6 0 19
26-May 6 0 17
27-May 5 0 15
28-May 4 0 13
29-May 4 0 12
30-May 3 0 10
31-May 3 0 9
1-Jun 2 0 8
2-Jun 2 0 7
3-Jun 2 0 6
4-Jun 1 0 5
5-Jun 1 0 4
6-Jun 1 0 4
7-Jun 1 0 3
8-Jun 1 0 3
9-Jun 0 0 2
10-Jun 0 0 2
11-Jun 0 0 2
12-Jun 0 0 1
13-Jun 0 0 1
14-Jun 0 0 1
15-Jun 0 0 1
16-Jun 0 0 1
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 1387
Low 556
High 2560
43904 43904 43904 43904
43905 43905 43905 43905
43906 43906 43906 43906
43907 43907 43907 43907
43908 43908 43908 43908
43909 43909 43909 43909
43910 43910 43910 43910
43911 43911 43911 43911
43912 43912 43912 43912
43913 43913 43913 43913
43914 43914 43914 43914
43915 43915 43915 43915
43916 43916 43916 43916
43917 43917 43917 43917
43918 43918 43918 43918
43919 43919 43919 43919
43920 43920 43920 43920
43921 43921 43921 43921
43922 43922 43922 43922
43923 43923 43923 43923
43924 43924 43924 43924
43925 43925 43925 43925
43926 43926 43926 43926
43927 43927 43927 43927
43928 43928 43928 43928
43929 43929 43929 43929
43930 43930 43930 43930
43931 43931 43931 43931
43932 43932 43932 43932
43933 43933 43933 43933
43934 43934 43934 43934
43935 43935 43935 43935
43936 43936 43936 43936
43937 43937 43937 43937
43938 43938 43938 43938
43939 43939 43939 43939
43940 43940 43940 43940
43941 43941 43941 43941
43942 43942 43942 43942
43943 43943 43943 43943
43944 43944 43944 43944
43945 43945 43945 43945
43946 43946 43946 43946
43947 43947 43947 43947
43948 43948 43948 43948
43949 43949 43949 43949
43950 43950 43950 43950
43951 43951 43951 43951
43952 43952 43952 43952
43953 43953 43953 43953
43954 43954 43954 43954
43955 43955 43955 43955
43956 43956 43956 43956
43957 43957 43957 43957
43958 43958 43958 43958
43959 43959 43959 43959
43960 43960 43960 43960
43961 43961 43961 43961
43962 43962 43962 43962
43963 43963 43963 43963
43964 43964 43964 43964
43965 43965 43965 43965
43966 43966 43966 43966
43967 43967 43967 43967
43968 43968 43968 43968
43969 43969 43969 43969
43970 43970 43970 43970
43971 43971 43971 43971
43972 43972 43972 43972
43973 43973 43973 43973
43974 43974 43974 43974
43975 43975 43975 43975
43976 43976 43976 43976
43977 43977 43977 43977
43978 43978 43978 43978
43979 43979 43979 43979
43980 43980 43980 43980
43981 43981 43981 43981
43982 43982 43982 43982
43983 43983 43983 43983
43984 43984 43984 43984
43985 43985 43985 43985
43986 43986 43986 43986
43987 43987 43987 43987
43988 43988 43988 43988
43989 43989 43989 43989
43990 43990 43990 43990
43991 43991 43991 43991
43992 43992 43992 43992
43993 43993 43993 43993
43994 43994 43994 43994
43995 43995 43995 43995
43996 43996 43996 43996
43997 43997 43997 43997
43998 43998 43998 43998
43999 43999 43999 43999
44000 44000 44000 44000
44001 44001 44001 44001
44002 44002 44002 44002
44003 44003 44003 44003
44004 44004 44004 44004
44005 44005 44005 44005
44006 44006 44006 44006
44007 44007 44007 44007
44008 44008 44008 44008
44009 44009 44009 44009
44010 44010 44010 44010
44011 44011 44011 44011
44012 44012 44012 44012
Page 2: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 2

Summary

Through at least rsquo21 the state revenue forecast will be linked to the future of the COVID-19 pandemic

Current virus forecasts are extremely speculative and change weekly

We currently project a $(11) B rsquo21 shortfall ndash could be wrong by $500 M in either direction

The projections are too uncertain to develop definitive plans for resolving the shortfall in the very near term

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once prior to the start of the fiscal year

JLBC 3

Current COVID Epidemiological Forecasting

Like revenue forecasting virus modeling is highly speculative

National models continuously updated with mortality hospitalization testing and other data

Two state-level projections IHME and COVID Act Now

IHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31

ndash Through April 8 AZ had 80 total deaths

IHME has a broad range of possible outcomes

IHME has a different methodology and lower infectiondeath estimates than other national models

JLBC 4

IHME Estimate of Arizona COVID-19 Deaths - Lower 47 s Appear Related to Broader Social Distancing

Source Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

April 2 Update April 7 Update

Chart1

Total DeathsProjection1387Low556High2560
Actual
Projection
Low
High
Deaths Per Day
COVID-19 Deaths
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
5
2
2
3
4
5
6
6
6
6
7
6
8
8
7
9
9
8
10
10
9
12
12
10
14
13
11
16
15
12
19
16
13
22
18
15
25
20
16
28
22
16
31
24
17
35
25
18
38
27
19
42
29
19
45
31
20
49
32
20
53
34
20
56
35
20
59
37
20
62
38
19
65
39
19
68
39
18
70
40
17
72
40
16
73
40
15
74
40
14
74
40
13
74
39
12
74
39
11
73
38
10
72
37
9
70
35
8
68
34
7
66
33
6
64
32
5
61
30
5
59
28
4
56
26
3
54
25
3
51
23
2
48
21
2
46
20
2
43
18
1
40
16
1
38
15
1
35
14
1
32
12
1
30
11
0
27
9
0
25
8
0
23
7
0
21
6
0
19
6
0
17
5
0
15
4
0
13
4
0
12
3
0
10
3
0
9
2
0
8
2
0
7
2
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
4
1
0
3
1
0
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet1

Chart1

Total DeathsProjection775Low230High2361
Actual
Projection
Low
High
Deaths Per Day
COVID-19 Deaths
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
5
2
2
3
4
5
3
9
11
12
1
8
13
4
27
13
3
30
14
4
31
15
4
36
16
4
39
18
5
39
19
5
44
20
5
47
21
6
49
21
6
48
23
7
54
23
7
57
23
7
60
24
7
63
24
6
67
24
6
67
24
6
73
24
5
75
24
5
74
23
5
78
23
4
77
22
4
80
21
3
77
20
3
77
19
3
77
18
2
73
17
2
71
16
2
68
15
1
64
14
1
61
13
1
57
12
1
52
11
1
50
10
1
45
9
0
41
8
0
37
7
0
35
6
0
30
5
0
28
5
0
25
4
0
22
4
0
19
3
0
17
3
0
15
2
0
13
2
0
11
2
0
9
1
0
8
1
0
7
1
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet1

JLBC 5

Longer Term Impact of COVID-19

Public health experts recommend gradually lifting social distancing once the incidence rate declines noticeably

ndash If this occurs economy will also improve gradually

As in prior pandemics there could be a 2nd wave later in the year

ndash We will be better prepared for the 2nd wave in terms of mitigation strategies but a vaccine may still be a year away

ndash A possible 2nd wave suggests being cautious with rsquo21 revenue growth rate

Arizona Economic Conditions

JLBC 7

Prior to COVID the State Was Doing Well- Put State in a Better Position for the COVID Recession

Through March General Fund revenues were up by 81

In the Index of Economic Momentum Arizona continued to rank 3rd among states based on last quarter data

But as we noted in our January presentation

ndash The forecast has no recession through rsquo23

bull Recessions are hard to predict usually due to ldquoshockrdquo

JLBC 8

Few Real-Time Indicators Available

Over the last 3 weeks 247000 new initial UI claims have been filed

Phoenix hotel occupancy rate fell by (71) in last week of March

Several restaurant chains reporting (70) decrease in sales

AHCCCS caseloads grew by 42000 in 1 month or an increase of 23

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PreserveHalftoneInfo false13 PreserveOPIComments false13 PreserveOverprintSettings true13 StartPage 113 SubsetFonts true13 TransferFunctionInfo Apply13 UCRandBGInfo Remove13 UsePrologue false13 ColorSettingsFile ()13 AlwaysEmbed [ true13 ]13 NeverEmbed [ true13 Arial-Black13 Arial-BlackItalic13 Arial-BoldItalicMT13 Arial-BoldMT13 Arial-ItalicMT13 ArialMT13 ArialNarrow13 ArialNarrow-Bold13 ArialNarrow-BoldItalic13 ArialNarrow-Italic13 ArialUnicodeMS13 CenturyGothic13 CenturyGothic-Bold13 CenturyGothic-BoldItalic13 CenturyGothic-Italic13 CourierNewPS-BoldItalicMT13 CourierNewPS-BoldMT13 CourierNewPS-ItalicMT13 CourierNewPSMT13 Georgia13 Georgia-Bold13 Georgia-BoldItalic13 Georgia-Italic13 Impact13 LucidaConsole13 Tahoma13 Tahoma-Bold13 TimesNewRomanMT-ExtraBold13 TimesNewRomanPS-BoldItalicMT13 TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT13 TimesNewRomanPS-ItalicMT13 TimesNewRomanPSMT13 Trebuchet-BoldItalic13 TrebuchetMS13 TrebuchetMS-Bold13 TrebuchetMS-Italic13 Verdana13 Verdana-Bold13 Verdana-BoldItalic13 Verdana-Italic13 ]13 AntiAliasColorImages false13 CropColorImages true13 ColorImageMinResolution 15013 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleColorImages true13 ColorImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 ColorImageResolution 15013 ColorImageDepth -113 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 113 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeColorImages true13 ColorImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterColorImages true13 ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 ColorImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 AntiAliasGrayImages false13 CropGrayImages true13 GrayImageMinResolution 15013 GrayImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleGrayImages true13 GrayImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 GrayImageResolution 15013 GrayImageDepth -113 GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 213 GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeGrayImages true13 GrayImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterGrayImages true13 GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 GrayImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 AntiAliasMonoImages false13 CropMonoImages true13 MonoImageMinResolution 120013 MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleMonoImages true13 MonoImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 MonoImageResolution 120013 MonoImageDepth -113 MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeMonoImages true13 MonoImageFilter CCITTFaxEncode13 MonoImageDict ltlt13 K -113 gtgt13 AllowPSXObjects true13 CheckCompliance [13 None13 ]13 PDFX1aCheck false13 PDFX3Check false13 PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false13 PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 3
3-Apr 9
4-Apr 11
5-Apr 12
6-Apr 1
7-Apr 8
8-Apr 13 4 27
9-Apr 13 3 30
10-Apr 14 4 31
11-Apr 15 4 36
12-Apr 16 4 39
13-Apr 18 5 39
14-Apr 19 5 44
15-Apr 20 5 47
16-Apr 21 6 49
17-Apr 21 6 48
18-Apr 23 7 54
19-Apr 23 7 57
20-Apr 23 7 60
21-Apr 24 7 63
22-Apr 24 6 67
23-Apr 24 6 67
24-Apr 24 6 73
25-Apr 24 5 75
26-Apr 24 5 74
27-Apr 23 5 78
28-Apr 23 4 77
29-Apr 22 4 80
30-Apr 21 3 77
1-May 20 3 77
2-May 19 3 77
3-May 18 2 73
4-May 17 2 71
5-May 16 2 68
6-May 15 1 64
7-May 14 1 61
8-May 13 1 57
9-May 12 1 52
10-May 11 1 50
11-May 10 1 45
12-May 9 0 41
13-May 8 0 37
14-May 7 0 35
15-May 6 0 30
16-May 5 0 28
17-May 5 0 25
18-May 4 0 22
19-May 4 0 19
20-May 3 0 17
21-May 3 0 15
22-May 2 0 13
23-May 2 0 11
24-May 2 0 9
25-May 1 0 8
26-May 1 0 7
27-May 1 0 6
28-May 1 0 5
29-May 1 0 4
30-May 1 0 3
31-May 0 0 3
1-Jun 0 0 2
2-Jun 0 0 2
3-Jun 0 0 1
4-Jun 0 0 1
5-Jun 0 0 1
6-Jun 0 0 1
7-Jun 0 0 1
8-Jun 0 0 0
9-Jun 0 0 0
10-Jun 0 0 0
11-Jun 0 0 0
12-Jun 0 0 0
13-Jun 0 0 0
14-Jun 0 0 0
15-Jun 0 0 0
16-Jun 0 0 0
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 776
Low 209
High 2334
43904 43904 43904 43904
43905 43905 43905 43905
43906 43906 43906 43906
43907 43907 43907 43907
43908 43908 43908 43908
43909 43909 43909 43909
43910 43910 43910 43910
43911 43911 43911 43911
43912 43912 43912 43912
43913 43913 43913 43913
43914 43914 43914 43914
43915 43915 43915 43915
43916 43916 43916 43916
43917 43917 43917 43917
43918 43918 43918 43918
43919 43919 43919 43919
43920 43920 43920 43920
43921 43921 43921 43921
43922 43922 43922 43922
43923 43923 43923 43923
43924 43924 43924 43924
43925 43925 43925 43925
43926 43926 43926 43926
43927 43927 43927 43927
43928 43928 43928 43928
43929 43929 43929 43929
43930 43930 43930 43930
43931 43931 43931 43931
43932 43932 43932 43932
43933 43933 43933 43933
43934 43934 43934 43934
43935 43935 43935 43935
43936 43936 43936 43936
43937 43937 43937 43937
43938 43938 43938 43938
43939 43939 43939 43939
43940 43940 43940 43940
43941 43941 43941 43941
43942 43942 43942 43942
43943 43943 43943 43943
43944 43944 43944 43944
43945 43945 43945 43945
43946 43946 43946 43946
43947 43947 43947 43947
43948 43948 43948 43948
43949 43949 43949 43949
43950 43950 43950 43950
43951 43951 43951 43951
43952 43952 43952 43952
43953 43953 43953 43953
43954 43954 43954 43954
43955 43955 43955 43955
43956 43956 43956 43956
43957 43957 43957 43957
43958 43958 43958 43958
43959 43959 43959 43959
43960 43960 43960 43960
43961 43961 43961 43961
43962 43962 43962 43962
43963 43963 43963 43963
43964 43964 43964 43964
43965 43965 43965 43965
43966 43966 43966 43966
43967 43967 43967 43967
43968 43968 43968 43968
43969 43969 43969 43969
43970 43970 43970 43970
43971 43971 43971 43971
43972 43972 43972 43972
43973 43973 43973 43973
43974 43974 43974 43974
43975 43975 43975 43975
43976 43976 43976 43976
43977 43977 43977 43977
43978 43978 43978 43978
43979 43979 43979 43979
43980 43980 43980 43980
43981 43981 43981 43981
43982 43982 43982 43982
43983 43983 43983 43983
43984 43984 43984 43984
43985 43985 43985 43985
43986 43986 43986 43986
43987 43987 43987 43987
43988 43988 43988 43988
43989 43989 43989 43989
43990 43990 43990 43990
43991 43991 43991 43991
43992 43992 43992 43992
43993 43993 43993 43993
43994 43994 43994 43994
43995 43995 43995 43995
43996 43996 43996 43996
43997 43997 43997 43997
43998 43998 43998 43998
43999 43999 43999 43999
44000 44000 44000 44000
44001 44001 44001 44001
44002 44002 44002 44002
44003 44003 44003 44003
44004 44004 44004 44004
44005 44005 44005 44005
44006 44006 44006 44006
44007 44007 44007 44007
44008 44008 44008 44008
44009 44009 44009 44009
44010 44010 44010 44010
44011 44011 44011 44011
44012 44012 44012 44012
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 6 6 6 6
3-Apr 7 6 8
4-Apr 8 7 9
5-Apr 9 8 10
6-Apr 10 9 12
7-Apr 12 10 14
8-Apr 13 11 16
9-Apr 15 12 19
10-Apr 16 13 22
11-Apr 18 15 25
12-Apr 20 16 28
13-Apr 22 16 31
14-Apr 24 17 35
15-Apr 25 18 38
16-Apr 27 19 42
17-Apr 29 19 45
18-Apr 31 20 49
19-Apr 32 20 53
20-Apr 34 20 56
21-Apr 35 20 59
22-Apr 37 20 62
23-Apr 38 19 65
24-Apr 39 19 68
25-Apr 39 18 70
26-Apr 40 17 72
27-Apr 40 16 73
28-Apr 40 15 74
29-Apr 40 14 74
30-Apr 40 13 74
1-May 39 12 74
2-May 39 11 73
3-May 38 10 72
4-May 37 9 70
5-May 35 8 68
6-May 34 7 66
7-May 33 6 64
8-May 32 5 61
9-May 30 5 59
10-May 28 4 56
11-May 26 3 54
12-May 25 3 51
13-May 23 2 48
14-May 21 2 46
15-May 20 2 43
16-May 18 1 40
17-May 16 1 38
18-May 15 1 35
19-May 14 1 32
20-May 12 1 30
21-May 11 0 27
22-May 9 0 25
23-May 8 0 23
24-May 7 0 21
25-May 6 0 19
26-May 6 0 17
27-May 5 0 15
28-May 4 0 13
29-May 4 0 12
30-May 3 0 10
31-May 3 0 9
1-Jun 2 0 8
2-Jun 2 0 7
3-Jun 2 0 6
4-Jun 1 0 5
5-Jun 1 0 4
6-Jun 1 0 4
7-Jun 1 0 3
8-Jun 1 0 3
9-Jun 0 0 2
10-Jun 0 0 2
11-Jun 0 0 2
12-Jun 0 0 1
13-Jun 0 0 1
14-Jun 0 0 1
15-Jun 0 0 1
16-Jun 0 0 1
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 1387
Low 556
High 2560
43904 43904 43904 43904
43905 43905 43905 43905
43906 43906 43906 43906
43907 43907 43907 43907
43908 43908 43908 43908
43909 43909 43909 43909
43910 43910 43910 43910
43911 43911 43911 43911
43912 43912 43912 43912
43913 43913 43913 43913
43914 43914 43914 43914
43915 43915 43915 43915
43916 43916 43916 43916
43917 43917 43917 43917
43918 43918 43918 43918
43919 43919 43919 43919
43920 43920 43920 43920
43921 43921 43921 43921
43922 43922 43922 43922
43923 43923 43923 43923
43924 43924 43924 43924
43925 43925 43925 43925
43926 43926 43926 43926
43927 43927 43927 43927
43928 43928 43928 43928
43929 43929 43929 43929
43930 43930 43930 43930
43931 43931 43931 43931
43932 43932 43932 43932
43933 43933 43933 43933
43934 43934 43934 43934
43935 43935 43935 43935
43936 43936 43936 43936
43937 43937 43937 43937
43938 43938 43938 43938
43939 43939 43939 43939
43940 43940 43940 43940
43941 43941 43941 43941
43942 43942 43942 43942
43943 43943 43943 43943
43944 43944 43944 43944
43945 43945 43945 43945
43946 43946 43946 43946
43947 43947 43947 43947
43948 43948 43948 43948
43949 43949 43949 43949
43950 43950 43950 43950
43951 43951 43951 43951
43952 43952 43952 43952
43953 43953 43953 43953
43954 43954 43954 43954
43955 43955 43955 43955
43956 43956 43956 43956
43957 43957 43957 43957
43958 43958 43958 43958
43959 43959 43959 43959
43960 43960 43960 43960
43961 43961 43961 43961
43962 43962 43962 43962
43963 43963 43963 43963
43964 43964 43964 43964
43965 43965 43965 43965
43966 43966 43966 43966
43967 43967 43967 43967
43968 43968 43968 43968
43969 43969 43969 43969
43970 43970 43970 43970
43971 43971 43971 43971
43972 43972 43972 43972
43973 43973 43973 43973
43974 43974 43974 43974
43975 43975 43975 43975
43976 43976 43976 43976
43977 43977 43977 43977
43978 43978 43978 43978
43979 43979 43979 43979
43980 43980 43980 43980
43981 43981 43981 43981
43982 43982 43982 43982
43983 43983 43983 43983
43984 43984 43984 43984
43985 43985 43985 43985
43986 43986 43986 43986
43987 43987 43987 43987
43988 43988 43988 43988
43989 43989 43989 43989
43990 43990 43990 43990
43991 43991 43991 43991
43992 43992 43992 43992
43993 43993 43993 43993
43994 43994 43994 43994
43995 43995 43995 43995
43996 43996 43996 43996
43997 43997 43997 43997
43998 43998 43998 43998
43999 43999 43999 43999
44000 44000 44000 44000
44001 44001 44001 44001
44002 44002 44002 44002
44003 44003 44003 44003
44004 44004 44004 44004
44005 44005 44005 44005
44006 44006 44006 44006
44007 44007 44007 44007
44008 44008 44008 44008
44009 44009 44009 44009
44010 44010 44010 44010
44011 44011 44011 44011
44012 44012 44012 44012
Page 3: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 3

Current COVID Epidemiological Forecasting

Like revenue forecasting virus modeling is highly speculative

National models continuously updated with mortality hospitalization testing and other data

Two state-level projections IHME and COVID Act Now

IHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31

ndash Through April 8 AZ had 80 total deaths

IHME has a broad range of possible outcomes

IHME has a different methodology and lower infectiondeath estimates than other national models

JLBC 4

IHME Estimate of Arizona COVID-19 Deaths - Lower 47 s Appear Related to Broader Social Distancing

Source Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

April 2 Update April 7 Update

Chart1

Total DeathsProjection1387Low556High2560
Actual
Projection
Low
High
Deaths Per Day
COVID-19 Deaths
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
5
2
2
3
4
5
6
6
6
6
7
6
8
8
7
9
9
8
10
10
9
12
12
10
14
13
11
16
15
12
19
16
13
22
18
15
25
20
16
28
22
16
31
24
17
35
25
18
38
27
19
42
29
19
45
31
20
49
32
20
53
34
20
56
35
20
59
37
20
62
38
19
65
39
19
68
39
18
70
40
17
72
40
16
73
40
15
74
40
14
74
40
13
74
39
12
74
39
11
73
38
10
72
37
9
70
35
8
68
34
7
66
33
6
64
32
5
61
30
5
59
28
4
56
26
3
54
25
3
51
23
2
48
21
2
46
20
2
43
18
1
40
16
1
38
15
1
35
14
1
32
12
1
30
11
0
27
9
0
25
8
0
23
7
0
21
6
0
19
6
0
17
5
0
15
4
0
13
4
0
12
3
0
10
3
0
9
2
0
8
2
0
7
2
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
4
1
0
3
1
0
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet1

Chart1

Total DeathsProjection775Low230High2361
Actual
Projection
Low
High
Deaths Per Day
COVID-19 Deaths
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
5
2
2
3
4
5
3
9
11
12
1
8
13
4
27
13
3
30
14
4
31
15
4
36
16
4
39
18
5
39
19
5
44
20
5
47
21
6
49
21
6
48
23
7
54
23
7
57
23
7
60
24
7
63
24
6
67
24
6
67
24
6
73
24
5
75
24
5
74
23
5
78
23
4
77
22
4
80
21
3
77
20
3
77
19
3
77
18
2
73
17
2
71
16
2
68
15
1
64
14
1
61
13
1
57
12
1
52
11
1
50
10
1
45
9
0
41
8
0
37
7
0
35
6
0
30
5
0
28
5
0
25
4
0
22
4
0
19
3
0
17
3
0
15
2
0
13
2
0
11
2
0
9
1
0
8
1
0
7
1
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet1

JLBC 5

Longer Term Impact of COVID-19

Public health experts recommend gradually lifting social distancing once the incidence rate declines noticeably

ndash If this occurs economy will also improve gradually

As in prior pandemics there could be a 2nd wave later in the year

ndash We will be better prepared for the 2nd wave in terms of mitigation strategies but a vaccine may still be a year away

ndash A possible 2nd wave suggests being cautious with rsquo21 revenue growth rate

Arizona Economic Conditions

JLBC 7

Prior to COVID the State Was Doing Well- Put State in a Better Position for the COVID Recession

Through March General Fund revenues were up by 81

In the Index of Economic Momentum Arizona continued to rank 3rd among states based on last quarter data

But as we noted in our January presentation

ndash The forecast has no recession through rsquo23

bull Recessions are hard to predict usually due to ldquoshockrdquo

JLBC 8

Few Real-Time Indicators Available

Over the last 3 weeks 247000 new initial UI claims have been filed

Phoenix hotel occupancy rate fell by (71) in last week of March

Several restaurant chains reporting (70) decrease in sales

AHCCCS caseloads grew by 42000 in 1 month or an increase of 23

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR ltFEFF004200720075006b00200064006900730073006500200069006e006e007300740069006c006c0069006e00670065006e0065002000740069006c002000e50020006f0070007000720065007400740065002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e00740065007200200073006f006d002000650072002000650067006e0065007400200066006f00720020007000e5006c006900740065006c006900670020007600690073006e0069006e00670020006f00670020007500740073006b007200690066007400200061007600200066006f0072007200650074006e0069006e006700730064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400650072002e0020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e00740065006e00650020006b0061006e002000e50070006e00650073002000690020004100630072006f00620061007400200065006c006c00650072002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000200065006c006c00650072002egt13 PTB ltFEFF005500740069006c0069007a006500200065007300730061007300200063006f006e00660069006700750072006100e700f50065007300200064006500200066006f0072006d00610020006100200063007200690061007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f0073002000410064006f00620065002000500044004600200061006400650071007500610064006f00730020007000610072006100200061002000760069007300750061006c0069007a006100e700e3006f002000650020006100200069006d0070007200650073007300e3006f00200063006f006e0066006900e1007600650069007300200064006500200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f007300200063006f006d0065007200630069006100690073002e0020004f007300200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f00730020005000440046002000630072006900610064006f007300200070006f00640065006d0020007300650072002000610062006500720074006f007300200063006f006d0020006f0020004100630072006f006200610074002000650020006f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e0030002000650020007600650072007300f50065007300200070006f00730074006500720069006f007200650073002egt13 SUO 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 SVE ltFEFF0041006e007600e4006e00640020006400650020006800e4007200200069006e0073007400e4006c006c006e0069006e006700610072006e00610020006f006d002000640075002000760069006c006c00200073006b006100700061002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400200073006f006d00200070006100730073006100720020006600f60072002000740069006c006c006600f60072006c00690074006c006900670020007600690073006e0069006e00670020006f006300680020007500740073006b007200690066007400650072002000610076002000610066006600e4007200730064006f006b0075006d0065006e0074002e002000200053006b006100700061006400650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e00740020006b0061006e002000f600700070006e00610073002000690020004100630072006f0062006100740020006f00630068002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020006f00630068002000730065006e006100720065002egt13 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 3
3-Apr 9
4-Apr 11
5-Apr 12
6-Apr 1
7-Apr 8
8-Apr 13 4 27
9-Apr 13 3 30
10-Apr 14 4 31
11-Apr 15 4 36
12-Apr 16 4 39
13-Apr 18 5 39
14-Apr 19 5 44
15-Apr 20 5 47
16-Apr 21 6 49
17-Apr 21 6 48
18-Apr 23 7 54
19-Apr 23 7 57
20-Apr 23 7 60
21-Apr 24 7 63
22-Apr 24 6 67
23-Apr 24 6 67
24-Apr 24 6 73
25-Apr 24 5 75
26-Apr 24 5 74
27-Apr 23 5 78
28-Apr 23 4 77
29-Apr 22 4 80
30-Apr 21 3 77
1-May 20 3 77
2-May 19 3 77
3-May 18 2 73
4-May 17 2 71
5-May 16 2 68
6-May 15 1 64
7-May 14 1 61
8-May 13 1 57
9-May 12 1 52
10-May 11 1 50
11-May 10 1 45
12-May 9 0 41
13-May 8 0 37
14-May 7 0 35
15-May 6 0 30
16-May 5 0 28
17-May 5 0 25
18-May 4 0 22
19-May 4 0 19
20-May 3 0 17
21-May 3 0 15
22-May 2 0 13
23-May 2 0 11
24-May 2 0 9
25-May 1 0 8
26-May 1 0 7
27-May 1 0 6
28-May 1 0 5
29-May 1 0 4
30-May 1 0 3
31-May 0 0 3
1-Jun 0 0 2
2-Jun 0 0 2
3-Jun 0 0 1
4-Jun 0 0 1
5-Jun 0 0 1
6-Jun 0 0 1
7-Jun 0 0 1
8-Jun 0 0 0
9-Jun 0 0 0
10-Jun 0 0 0
11-Jun 0 0 0
12-Jun 0 0 0
13-Jun 0 0 0
14-Jun 0 0 0
15-Jun 0 0 0
16-Jun 0 0 0
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 776
Low 209
High 2334
43904 43904 43904 43904
43905 43905 43905 43905
43906 43906 43906 43906
43907 43907 43907 43907
43908 43908 43908 43908
43909 43909 43909 43909
43910 43910 43910 43910
43911 43911 43911 43911
43912 43912 43912 43912
43913 43913 43913 43913
43914 43914 43914 43914
43915 43915 43915 43915
43916 43916 43916 43916
43917 43917 43917 43917
43918 43918 43918 43918
43919 43919 43919 43919
43920 43920 43920 43920
43921 43921 43921 43921
43922 43922 43922 43922
43923 43923 43923 43923
43924 43924 43924 43924
43925 43925 43925 43925
43926 43926 43926 43926
43927 43927 43927 43927
43928 43928 43928 43928
43929 43929 43929 43929
43930 43930 43930 43930
43931 43931 43931 43931
43932 43932 43932 43932
43933 43933 43933 43933
43934 43934 43934 43934
43935 43935 43935 43935
43936 43936 43936 43936
43937 43937 43937 43937
43938 43938 43938 43938
43939 43939 43939 43939
43940 43940 43940 43940
43941 43941 43941 43941
43942 43942 43942 43942
43943 43943 43943 43943
43944 43944 43944 43944
43945 43945 43945 43945
43946 43946 43946 43946
43947 43947 43947 43947
43948 43948 43948 43948
43949 43949 43949 43949
43950 43950 43950 43950
43951 43951 43951 43951
43952 43952 43952 43952
43953 43953 43953 43953
43954 43954 43954 43954
43955 43955 43955 43955
43956 43956 43956 43956
43957 43957 43957 43957
43958 43958 43958 43958
43959 43959 43959 43959
43960 43960 43960 43960
43961 43961 43961 43961
43962 43962 43962 43962
43963 43963 43963 43963
43964 43964 43964 43964
43965 43965 43965 43965
43966 43966 43966 43966
43967 43967 43967 43967
43968 43968 43968 43968
43969 43969 43969 43969
43970 43970 43970 43970
43971 43971 43971 43971
43972 43972 43972 43972
43973 43973 43973 43973
43974 43974 43974 43974
43975 43975 43975 43975
43976 43976 43976 43976
43977 43977 43977 43977
43978 43978 43978 43978
43979 43979 43979 43979
43980 43980 43980 43980
43981 43981 43981 43981
43982 43982 43982 43982
43983 43983 43983 43983
43984 43984 43984 43984
43985 43985 43985 43985
43986 43986 43986 43986
43987 43987 43987 43987
43988 43988 43988 43988
43989 43989 43989 43989
43990 43990 43990 43990
43991 43991 43991 43991
43992 43992 43992 43992
43993 43993 43993 43993
43994 43994 43994 43994
43995 43995 43995 43995
43996 43996 43996 43996
43997 43997 43997 43997
43998 43998 43998 43998
43999 43999 43999 43999
44000 44000 44000 44000
44001 44001 44001 44001
44002 44002 44002 44002
44003 44003 44003 44003
44004 44004 44004 44004
44005 44005 44005 44005
44006 44006 44006 44006
44007 44007 44007 44007
44008 44008 44008 44008
44009 44009 44009 44009
44010 44010 44010 44010
44011 44011 44011 44011
44012 44012 44012 44012
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 6 6 6 6
3-Apr 7 6 8
4-Apr 8 7 9
5-Apr 9 8 10
6-Apr 10 9 12
7-Apr 12 10 14
8-Apr 13 11 16
9-Apr 15 12 19
10-Apr 16 13 22
11-Apr 18 15 25
12-Apr 20 16 28
13-Apr 22 16 31
14-Apr 24 17 35
15-Apr 25 18 38
16-Apr 27 19 42
17-Apr 29 19 45
18-Apr 31 20 49
19-Apr 32 20 53
20-Apr 34 20 56
21-Apr 35 20 59
22-Apr 37 20 62
23-Apr 38 19 65
24-Apr 39 19 68
25-Apr 39 18 70
26-Apr 40 17 72
27-Apr 40 16 73
28-Apr 40 15 74
29-Apr 40 14 74
30-Apr 40 13 74
1-May 39 12 74
2-May 39 11 73
3-May 38 10 72
4-May 37 9 70
5-May 35 8 68
6-May 34 7 66
7-May 33 6 64
8-May 32 5 61
9-May 30 5 59
10-May 28 4 56
11-May 26 3 54
12-May 25 3 51
13-May 23 2 48
14-May 21 2 46
15-May 20 2 43
16-May 18 1 40
17-May 16 1 38
18-May 15 1 35
19-May 14 1 32
20-May 12 1 30
21-May 11 0 27
22-May 9 0 25
23-May 8 0 23
24-May 7 0 21
25-May 6 0 19
26-May 6 0 17
27-May 5 0 15
28-May 4 0 13
29-May 4 0 12
30-May 3 0 10
31-May 3 0 9
1-Jun 2 0 8
2-Jun 2 0 7
3-Jun 2 0 6
4-Jun 1 0 5
5-Jun 1 0 4
6-Jun 1 0 4
7-Jun 1 0 3
8-Jun 1 0 3
9-Jun 0 0 2
10-Jun 0 0 2
11-Jun 0 0 2
12-Jun 0 0 1
13-Jun 0 0 1
14-Jun 0 0 1
15-Jun 0 0 1
16-Jun 0 0 1
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 1387
Low 556
High 2560
43904 43904 43904 43904
43905 43905 43905 43905
43906 43906 43906 43906
43907 43907 43907 43907
43908 43908 43908 43908
43909 43909 43909 43909
43910 43910 43910 43910
43911 43911 43911 43911
43912 43912 43912 43912
43913 43913 43913 43913
43914 43914 43914 43914
43915 43915 43915 43915
43916 43916 43916 43916
43917 43917 43917 43917
43918 43918 43918 43918
43919 43919 43919 43919
43920 43920 43920 43920
43921 43921 43921 43921
43922 43922 43922 43922
43923 43923 43923 43923
43924 43924 43924 43924
43925 43925 43925 43925
43926 43926 43926 43926
43927 43927 43927 43927
43928 43928 43928 43928
43929 43929 43929 43929
43930 43930 43930 43930
43931 43931 43931 43931
43932 43932 43932 43932
43933 43933 43933 43933
43934 43934 43934 43934
43935 43935 43935 43935
43936 43936 43936 43936
43937 43937 43937 43937
43938 43938 43938 43938
43939 43939 43939 43939
43940 43940 43940 43940
43941 43941 43941 43941
43942 43942 43942 43942
43943 43943 43943 43943
43944 43944 43944 43944
43945 43945 43945 43945
43946 43946 43946 43946
43947 43947 43947 43947
43948 43948 43948 43948
43949 43949 43949 43949
43950 43950 43950 43950
43951 43951 43951 43951
43952 43952 43952 43952
43953 43953 43953 43953
43954 43954 43954 43954
43955 43955 43955 43955
43956 43956 43956 43956
43957 43957 43957 43957
43958 43958 43958 43958
43959 43959 43959 43959
43960 43960 43960 43960
43961 43961 43961 43961
43962 43962 43962 43962
43963 43963 43963 43963
43964 43964 43964 43964
43965 43965 43965 43965
43966 43966 43966 43966
43967 43967 43967 43967
43968 43968 43968 43968
43969 43969 43969 43969
43970 43970 43970 43970
43971 43971 43971 43971
43972 43972 43972 43972
43973 43973 43973 43973
43974 43974 43974 43974
43975 43975 43975 43975
43976 43976 43976 43976
43977 43977 43977 43977
43978 43978 43978 43978
43979 43979 43979 43979
43980 43980 43980 43980
43981 43981 43981 43981
43982 43982 43982 43982
43983 43983 43983 43983
43984 43984 43984 43984
43985 43985 43985 43985
43986 43986 43986 43986
43987 43987 43987 43987
43988 43988 43988 43988
43989 43989 43989 43989
43990 43990 43990 43990
43991 43991 43991 43991
43992 43992 43992 43992
43993 43993 43993 43993
43994 43994 43994 43994
43995 43995 43995 43995
43996 43996 43996 43996
43997 43997 43997 43997
43998 43998 43998 43998
43999 43999 43999 43999
44000 44000 44000 44000
44001 44001 44001 44001
44002 44002 44002 44002
44003 44003 44003 44003
44004 44004 44004 44004
44005 44005 44005 44005
44006 44006 44006 44006
44007 44007 44007 44007
44008 44008 44008 44008
44009 44009 44009 44009
44010 44010 44010 44010
44011 44011 44011 44011
44012 44012 44012 44012
Page 4: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 4

IHME Estimate of Arizona COVID-19 Deaths - Lower 47 s Appear Related to Broader Social Distancing

Source Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

April 2 Update April 7 Update

Chart1

Total DeathsProjection1387Low556High2560
Actual
Projection
Low
High
Deaths Per Day
COVID-19 Deaths
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
5
2
2
3
4
5
6
6
6
6
7
6
8
8
7
9
9
8
10
10
9
12
12
10
14
13
11
16
15
12
19
16
13
22
18
15
25
20
16
28
22
16
31
24
17
35
25
18
38
27
19
42
29
19
45
31
20
49
32
20
53
34
20
56
35
20
59
37
20
62
38
19
65
39
19
68
39
18
70
40
17
72
40
16
73
40
15
74
40
14
74
40
13
74
39
12
74
39
11
73
38
10
72
37
9
70
35
8
68
34
7
66
33
6
64
32
5
61
30
5
59
28
4
56
26
3
54
25
3
51
23
2
48
21
2
46
20
2
43
18
1
40
16
1
38
15
1
35
14
1
32
12
1
30
11
0
27
9
0
25
8
0
23
7
0
21
6
0
19
6
0
17
5
0
15
4
0
13
4
0
12
3
0
10
3
0
9
2
0
8
2
0
7
2
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
4
1
0
3
1
0
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet1

Chart1

Total DeathsProjection775Low230High2361
Actual
Projection
Low
High
Deaths Per Day
COVID-19 Deaths
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
5
2
2
3
4
5
3
9
11
12
1
8
13
4
27
13
3
30
14
4
31
15
4
36
16
4
39
18
5
39
19
5
44
20
5
47
21
6
49
21
6
48
23
7
54
23
7
57
23
7
60
24
7
63
24
6
67
24
6
67
24
6
73
24
5
75
24
5
74
23
5
78
23
4
77
22
4
80
21
3
77
20
3
77
19
3
77
18
2
73
17
2
71
16
2
68
15
1
64
14
1
61
13
1
57
12
1
52
11
1
50
10
1
45
9
0
41
8
0
37
7
0
35
6
0
30
5
0
28
5
0
25
4
0
22
4
0
19
3
0
17
3
0
15
2
0
13
2
0
11
2
0
9
1
0
8
1
0
7
1
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet1

JLBC 5

Longer Term Impact of COVID-19

Public health experts recommend gradually lifting social distancing once the incidence rate declines noticeably

ndash If this occurs economy will also improve gradually

As in prior pandemics there could be a 2nd wave later in the year

ndash We will be better prepared for the 2nd wave in terms of mitigation strategies but a vaccine may still be a year away

ndash A possible 2nd wave suggests being cautious with rsquo21 revenue growth rate

Arizona Economic Conditions

JLBC 7

Prior to COVID the State Was Doing Well- Put State in a Better Position for the COVID Recession

Through March General Fund revenues were up by 81

In the Index of Economic Momentum Arizona continued to rank 3rd among states based on last quarter data

But as we noted in our January presentation

ndash The forecast has no recession through rsquo23

bull Recessions are hard to predict usually due to ldquoshockrdquo

JLBC 8

Few Real-Time Indicators Available

Over the last 3 weeks 247000 new initial UI claims have been filed

Phoenix hotel occupancy rate fell by (71) in last week of March

Several restaurant chains reporting (70) decrease in sales

AHCCCS caseloads grew by 42000 in 1 month or an increase of 23

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
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  • Slide Number 36

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 ESP ltFEFF005500740069006c0069006300650020006500730074006100200063006f006e0066006900670075007200610063006900f3006e0020007000610072006100200063007200650061007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f0073002000640065002000410064006f00620065002000500044004600200061006400650063007500610064006f007300200070006100720061002000760069007300750061006c0069007a00610063006900f3006e0020006500200069006d0070007200650073006900f3006e00200064006500200063006f006e006600690061006e007a006100200064006500200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f007300200063006f006d00650072006300690061006c00650073002e002000530065002000700075006500640065006e00200061006200720069007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f00730020005000440046002000630072006500610064006f007300200063006f006e0020004100630072006f006200610074002c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000200079002000760065007200730069006f006e0065007300200070006f00730074006500720069006f007200650073002egt13 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 3
3-Apr 9
4-Apr 11
5-Apr 12
6-Apr 1
7-Apr 8
8-Apr 13 4 27
9-Apr 13 3 30
10-Apr 14 4 31
11-Apr 15 4 36
12-Apr 16 4 39
13-Apr 18 5 39
14-Apr 19 5 44
15-Apr 20 5 47
16-Apr 21 6 49
17-Apr 21 6 48
18-Apr 23 7 54
19-Apr 23 7 57
20-Apr 23 7 60
21-Apr 24 7 63
22-Apr 24 6 67
23-Apr 24 6 67
24-Apr 24 6 73
25-Apr 24 5 75
26-Apr 24 5 74
27-Apr 23 5 78
28-Apr 23 4 77
29-Apr 22 4 80
30-Apr 21 3 77
1-May 20 3 77
2-May 19 3 77
3-May 18 2 73
4-May 17 2 71
5-May 16 2 68
6-May 15 1 64
7-May 14 1 61
8-May 13 1 57
9-May 12 1 52
10-May 11 1 50
11-May 10 1 45
12-May 9 0 41
13-May 8 0 37
14-May 7 0 35
15-May 6 0 30
16-May 5 0 28
17-May 5 0 25
18-May 4 0 22
19-May 4 0 19
20-May 3 0 17
21-May 3 0 15
22-May 2 0 13
23-May 2 0 11
24-May 2 0 9
25-May 1 0 8
26-May 1 0 7
27-May 1 0 6
28-May 1 0 5
29-May 1 0 4
30-May 1 0 3
31-May 0 0 3
1-Jun 0 0 2
2-Jun 0 0 2
3-Jun 0 0 1
4-Jun 0 0 1
5-Jun 0 0 1
6-Jun 0 0 1
7-Jun 0 0 1
8-Jun 0 0 0
9-Jun 0 0 0
10-Jun 0 0 0
11-Jun 0 0 0
12-Jun 0 0 0
13-Jun 0 0 0
14-Jun 0 0 0
15-Jun 0 0 0
16-Jun 0 0 0
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 776
Low 209
High 2334
43904 43904 43904 43904
43905 43905 43905 43905
43906 43906 43906 43906
43907 43907 43907 43907
43908 43908 43908 43908
43909 43909 43909 43909
43910 43910 43910 43910
43911 43911 43911 43911
43912 43912 43912 43912
43913 43913 43913 43913
43914 43914 43914 43914
43915 43915 43915 43915
43916 43916 43916 43916
43917 43917 43917 43917
43918 43918 43918 43918
43919 43919 43919 43919
43920 43920 43920 43920
43921 43921 43921 43921
43922 43922 43922 43922
43923 43923 43923 43923
43924 43924 43924 43924
43925 43925 43925 43925
43926 43926 43926 43926
43927 43927 43927 43927
43928 43928 43928 43928
43929 43929 43929 43929
43930 43930 43930 43930
43931 43931 43931 43931
43932 43932 43932 43932
43933 43933 43933 43933
43934 43934 43934 43934
43935 43935 43935 43935
43936 43936 43936 43936
43937 43937 43937 43937
43938 43938 43938 43938
43939 43939 43939 43939
43940 43940 43940 43940
43941 43941 43941 43941
43942 43942 43942 43942
43943 43943 43943 43943
43944 43944 43944 43944
43945 43945 43945 43945
43946 43946 43946 43946
43947 43947 43947 43947
43948 43948 43948 43948
43949 43949 43949 43949
43950 43950 43950 43950
43951 43951 43951 43951
43952 43952 43952 43952
43953 43953 43953 43953
43954 43954 43954 43954
43955 43955 43955 43955
43956 43956 43956 43956
43957 43957 43957 43957
43958 43958 43958 43958
43959 43959 43959 43959
43960 43960 43960 43960
43961 43961 43961 43961
43962 43962 43962 43962
43963 43963 43963 43963
43964 43964 43964 43964
43965 43965 43965 43965
43966 43966 43966 43966
43967 43967 43967 43967
43968 43968 43968 43968
43969 43969 43969 43969
43970 43970 43970 43970
43971 43971 43971 43971
43972 43972 43972 43972
43973 43973 43973 43973
43974 43974 43974 43974
43975 43975 43975 43975
43976 43976 43976 43976
43977 43977 43977 43977
43978 43978 43978 43978
43979 43979 43979 43979
43980 43980 43980 43980
43981 43981 43981 43981
43982 43982 43982 43982
43983 43983 43983 43983
43984 43984 43984 43984
43985 43985 43985 43985
43986 43986 43986 43986
43987 43987 43987 43987
43988 43988 43988 43988
43989 43989 43989 43989
43990 43990 43990 43990
43991 43991 43991 43991
43992 43992 43992 43992
43993 43993 43993 43993
43994 43994 43994 43994
43995 43995 43995 43995
43996 43996 43996 43996
43997 43997 43997 43997
43998 43998 43998 43998
43999 43999 43999 43999
44000 44000 44000 44000
44001 44001 44001 44001
44002 44002 44002 44002
44003 44003 44003 44003
44004 44004 44004 44004
44005 44005 44005 44005
44006 44006 44006 44006
44007 44007 44007 44007
44008 44008 44008 44008
44009 44009 44009 44009
44010 44010 44010 44010
44011 44011 44011 44011
44012 44012 44012 44012
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 6 6 6 6
3-Apr 7 6 8
4-Apr 8 7 9
5-Apr 9 8 10
6-Apr 10 9 12
7-Apr 12 10 14
8-Apr 13 11 16
9-Apr 15 12 19
10-Apr 16 13 22
11-Apr 18 15 25
12-Apr 20 16 28
13-Apr 22 16 31
14-Apr 24 17 35
15-Apr 25 18 38
16-Apr 27 19 42
17-Apr 29 19 45
18-Apr 31 20 49
19-Apr 32 20 53
20-Apr 34 20 56
21-Apr 35 20 59
22-Apr 37 20 62
23-Apr 38 19 65
24-Apr 39 19 68
25-Apr 39 18 70
26-Apr 40 17 72
27-Apr 40 16 73
28-Apr 40 15 74
29-Apr 40 14 74
30-Apr 40 13 74
1-May 39 12 74
2-May 39 11 73
3-May 38 10 72
4-May 37 9 70
5-May 35 8 68
6-May 34 7 66
7-May 33 6 64
8-May 32 5 61
9-May 30 5 59
10-May 28 4 56
11-May 26 3 54
12-May 25 3 51
13-May 23 2 48
14-May 21 2 46
15-May 20 2 43
16-May 18 1 40
17-May 16 1 38
18-May 15 1 35
19-May 14 1 32
20-May 12 1 30
21-May 11 0 27
22-May 9 0 25
23-May 8 0 23
24-May 7 0 21
25-May 6 0 19
26-May 6 0 17
27-May 5 0 15
28-May 4 0 13
29-May 4 0 12
30-May 3 0 10
31-May 3 0 9
1-Jun 2 0 8
2-Jun 2 0 7
3-Jun 2 0 6
4-Jun 1 0 5
5-Jun 1 0 4
6-Jun 1 0 4
7-Jun 1 0 3
8-Jun 1 0 3
9-Jun 0 0 2
10-Jun 0 0 2
11-Jun 0 0 2
12-Jun 0 0 1
13-Jun 0 0 1
14-Jun 0 0 1
15-Jun 0 0 1
16-Jun 0 0 1
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 1387
Low 556
High 2560
43904 43904 43904 43904
43905 43905 43905 43905
43906 43906 43906 43906
43907 43907 43907 43907
43908 43908 43908 43908
43909 43909 43909 43909
43910 43910 43910 43910
43911 43911 43911 43911
43912 43912 43912 43912
43913 43913 43913 43913
43914 43914 43914 43914
43915 43915 43915 43915
43916 43916 43916 43916
43917 43917 43917 43917
43918 43918 43918 43918
43919 43919 43919 43919
43920 43920 43920 43920
43921 43921 43921 43921
43922 43922 43922 43922
43923 43923 43923 43923
43924 43924 43924 43924
43925 43925 43925 43925
43926 43926 43926 43926
43927 43927 43927 43927
43928 43928 43928 43928
43929 43929 43929 43929
43930 43930 43930 43930
43931 43931 43931 43931
43932 43932 43932 43932
43933 43933 43933 43933
43934 43934 43934 43934
43935 43935 43935 43935
43936 43936 43936 43936
43937 43937 43937 43937
43938 43938 43938 43938
43939 43939 43939 43939
43940 43940 43940 43940
43941 43941 43941 43941
43942 43942 43942 43942
43943 43943 43943 43943
43944 43944 43944 43944
43945 43945 43945 43945
43946 43946 43946 43946
43947 43947 43947 43947
43948 43948 43948 43948
43949 43949 43949 43949
43950 43950 43950 43950
43951 43951 43951 43951
43952 43952 43952 43952
43953 43953 43953 43953
43954 43954 43954 43954
43955 43955 43955 43955
43956 43956 43956 43956
43957 43957 43957 43957
43958 43958 43958 43958
43959 43959 43959 43959
43960 43960 43960 43960
43961 43961 43961 43961
43962 43962 43962 43962
43963 43963 43963 43963
43964 43964 43964 43964
43965 43965 43965 43965
43966 43966 43966 43966
43967 43967 43967 43967
43968 43968 43968 43968
43969 43969 43969 43969
43970 43970 43970 43970
43971 43971 43971 43971
43972 43972 43972 43972
43973 43973 43973 43973
43974 43974 43974 43974
43975 43975 43975 43975
43976 43976 43976 43976
43977 43977 43977 43977
43978 43978 43978 43978
43979 43979 43979 43979
43980 43980 43980 43980
43981 43981 43981 43981
43982 43982 43982 43982
43983 43983 43983 43983
43984 43984 43984 43984
43985 43985 43985 43985
43986 43986 43986 43986
43987 43987 43987 43987
43988 43988 43988 43988
43989 43989 43989 43989
43990 43990 43990 43990
43991 43991 43991 43991
43992 43992 43992 43992
43993 43993 43993 43993
43994 43994 43994 43994
43995 43995 43995 43995
43996 43996 43996 43996
43997 43997 43997 43997
43998 43998 43998 43998
43999 43999 43999 43999
44000 44000 44000 44000
44001 44001 44001 44001
44002 44002 44002 44002
44003 44003 44003 44003
44004 44004 44004 44004
44005 44005 44005 44005
44006 44006 44006 44006
44007 44007 44007 44007
44008 44008 44008 44008
44009 44009 44009 44009
44010 44010 44010 44010
44011 44011 44011 44011
44012 44012 44012 44012
Page 5: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Chart1

Total DeathsProjection1387Low556High2560
Actual
Projection
Low
High
Deaths Per Day
COVID-19 Deaths
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
5
2
2
3
4
5
6
6
6
6
7
6
8
8
7
9
9
8
10
10
9
12
12
10
14
13
11
16
15
12
19
16
13
22
18
15
25
20
16
28
22
16
31
24
17
35
25
18
38
27
19
42
29
19
45
31
20
49
32
20
53
34
20
56
35
20
59
37
20
62
38
19
65
39
19
68
39
18
70
40
17
72
40
16
73
40
15
74
40
14
74
40
13
74
39
12
74
39
11
73
38
10
72
37
9
70
35
8
68
34
7
66
33
6
64
32
5
61
30
5
59
28
4
56
26
3
54
25
3
51
23
2
48
21
2
46
20
2
43
18
1
40
16
1
38
15
1
35
14
1
32
12
1
30
11
0
27
9
0
25
8
0
23
7
0
21
6
0
19
6
0
17
5
0
15
4
0
13
4
0
12
3
0
10
3
0
9
2
0
8
2
0
7
2
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
4
1
0
3
1
0
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet1

Chart1

Total DeathsProjection775Low230High2361
Actual
Projection
Low
High
Deaths Per Day
COVID-19 Deaths
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
5
2
2
3
4
5
3
9
11
12
1
8
13
4
27
13
3
30
14
4
31
15
4
36
16
4
39
18
5
39
19
5
44
20
5
47
21
6
49
21
6
48
23
7
54
23
7
57
23
7
60
24
7
63
24
6
67
24
6
67
24
6
73
24
5
75
24
5
74
23
5
78
23
4
77
22
4
80
21
3
77
20
3
77
19
3
77
18
2
73
17
2
71
16
2
68
15
1
64
14
1
61
13
1
57
12
1
52
11
1
50
10
1
45
9
0
41
8
0
37
7
0
35
6
0
30
5
0
28
5
0
25
4
0
22
4
0
19
3
0
17
3
0
15
2
0
13
2
0
11
2
0
9
1
0
8
1
0
7
1
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet1

JLBC 5

Longer Term Impact of COVID-19

Public health experts recommend gradually lifting social distancing once the incidence rate declines noticeably

ndash If this occurs economy will also improve gradually

As in prior pandemics there could be a 2nd wave later in the year

ndash We will be better prepared for the 2nd wave in terms of mitigation strategies but a vaccine may still be a year away

ndash A possible 2nd wave suggests being cautious with rsquo21 revenue growth rate

Arizona Economic Conditions

JLBC 7

Prior to COVID the State Was Doing Well- Put State in a Better Position for the COVID Recession

Through March General Fund revenues were up by 81

In the Index of Economic Momentum Arizona continued to rank 3rd among states based on last quarter data

But as we noted in our January presentation

ndash The forecast has no recession through rsquo23

bull Recessions are hard to predict usually due to ldquoshockrdquo

JLBC 8

Few Real-Time Indicators Available

Over the last 3 weeks 247000 new initial UI claims have been filed

Phoenix hotel occupancy rate fell by (71) in last week of March

Several restaurant chains reporting (70) decrease in sales

AHCCCS caseloads grew by 42000 in 1 month or an increase of 23

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
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  • Slide Number 11
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  • Slide Number 15
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  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
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  • Slide Number 24
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  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
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  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36

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GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 213 GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeGrayImages true13 GrayImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterGrayImages true13 GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 GrayImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 AntiAliasMonoImages false13 CropMonoImages true13 MonoImageMinResolution 120013 MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleMonoImages true13 MonoImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 MonoImageResolution 120013 MonoImageDepth -113 MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeMonoImages true13 MonoImageFilter CCITTFaxEncode13 MonoImageDict ltlt13 K -113 gtgt13 AllowPSXObjects true13 CheckCompliance [13 None13 ]13 PDFX1aCheck false13 PDFX3Check false13 PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false13 PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB ltFEFF005500740069006c0069007a006500200065007300730061007300200063006f006e00660069006700750072006100e700f50065007300200064006500200066006f0072006d00610020006100200063007200690061007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f0073002000410064006f00620065002000500044004600200061006400650071007500610064006f00730020007000610072006100200061002000760069007300750061006c0069007a006100e700e3006f002000650020006100200069006d0070007200650073007300e3006f00200063006f006e0066006900e1007600650069007300200064006500200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f007300200063006f006d0065007200630069006100690073002e0020004f007300200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f00730020005000440046002000630072006900610064006f007300200070006f00640065006d0020007300650072002000610062006500720074006f007300200063006f006d0020006f0020004100630072006f006200610074002000650020006f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e0030002000650020007600650072007300f50065007300200070006f00730074006500720069006f007200650073002egt13 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 3
3-Apr 9
4-Apr 11
5-Apr 12
6-Apr 1
7-Apr 8
8-Apr 13 4 27
9-Apr 13 3 30
10-Apr 14 4 31
11-Apr 15 4 36
12-Apr 16 4 39
13-Apr 18 5 39
14-Apr 19 5 44
15-Apr 20 5 47
16-Apr 21 6 49
17-Apr 21 6 48
18-Apr 23 7 54
19-Apr 23 7 57
20-Apr 23 7 60
21-Apr 24 7 63
22-Apr 24 6 67
23-Apr 24 6 67
24-Apr 24 6 73
25-Apr 24 5 75
26-Apr 24 5 74
27-Apr 23 5 78
28-Apr 23 4 77
29-Apr 22 4 80
30-Apr 21 3 77
1-May 20 3 77
2-May 19 3 77
3-May 18 2 73
4-May 17 2 71
5-May 16 2 68
6-May 15 1 64
7-May 14 1 61
8-May 13 1 57
9-May 12 1 52
10-May 11 1 50
11-May 10 1 45
12-May 9 0 41
13-May 8 0 37
14-May 7 0 35
15-May 6 0 30
16-May 5 0 28
17-May 5 0 25
18-May 4 0 22
19-May 4 0 19
20-May 3 0 17
21-May 3 0 15
22-May 2 0 13
23-May 2 0 11
24-May 2 0 9
25-May 1 0 8
26-May 1 0 7
27-May 1 0 6
28-May 1 0 5
29-May 1 0 4
30-May 1 0 3
31-May 0 0 3
1-Jun 0 0 2
2-Jun 0 0 2
3-Jun 0 0 1
4-Jun 0 0 1
5-Jun 0 0 1
6-Jun 0 0 1
7-Jun 0 0 1
8-Jun 0 0 0
9-Jun 0 0 0
10-Jun 0 0 0
11-Jun 0 0 0
12-Jun 0 0 0
13-Jun 0 0 0
14-Jun 0 0 0
15-Jun 0 0 0
16-Jun 0 0 0
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 776
Low 209
High 2334
43904 43904 43904 43904
43905 43905 43905 43905
43906 43906 43906 43906
43907 43907 43907 43907
43908 43908 43908 43908
43909 43909 43909 43909
43910 43910 43910 43910
43911 43911 43911 43911
43912 43912 43912 43912
43913 43913 43913 43913
43914 43914 43914 43914
43915 43915 43915 43915
43916 43916 43916 43916
43917 43917 43917 43917
43918 43918 43918 43918
43919 43919 43919 43919
43920 43920 43920 43920
43921 43921 43921 43921
43922 43922 43922 43922
43923 43923 43923 43923
43924 43924 43924 43924
43925 43925 43925 43925
43926 43926 43926 43926
43927 43927 43927 43927
43928 43928 43928 43928
43929 43929 43929 43929
43930 43930 43930 43930
43931 43931 43931 43931
43932 43932 43932 43932
43933 43933 43933 43933
43934 43934 43934 43934
43935 43935 43935 43935
43936 43936 43936 43936
43937 43937 43937 43937
43938 43938 43938 43938
43939 43939 43939 43939
43940 43940 43940 43940
43941 43941 43941 43941
43942 43942 43942 43942
43943 43943 43943 43943
43944 43944 43944 43944
43945 43945 43945 43945
43946 43946 43946 43946
43947 43947 43947 43947
43948 43948 43948 43948
43949 43949 43949 43949
43950 43950 43950 43950
43951 43951 43951 43951
43952 43952 43952 43952
43953 43953 43953 43953
43954 43954 43954 43954
43955 43955 43955 43955
43956 43956 43956 43956
43957 43957 43957 43957
43958 43958 43958 43958
43959 43959 43959 43959
43960 43960 43960 43960
43961 43961 43961 43961
43962 43962 43962 43962
43963 43963 43963 43963
43964 43964 43964 43964
43965 43965 43965 43965
43966 43966 43966 43966
43967 43967 43967 43967
43968 43968 43968 43968
43969 43969 43969 43969
43970 43970 43970 43970
43971 43971 43971 43971
43972 43972 43972 43972
43973 43973 43973 43973
43974 43974 43974 43974
43975 43975 43975 43975
43976 43976 43976 43976
43977 43977 43977 43977
43978 43978 43978 43978
43979 43979 43979 43979
43980 43980 43980 43980
43981 43981 43981 43981
43982 43982 43982 43982
43983 43983 43983 43983
43984 43984 43984 43984
43985 43985 43985 43985
43986 43986 43986 43986
43987 43987 43987 43987
43988 43988 43988 43988
43989 43989 43989 43989
43990 43990 43990 43990
43991 43991 43991 43991
43992 43992 43992 43992
43993 43993 43993 43993
43994 43994 43994 43994
43995 43995 43995 43995
43996 43996 43996 43996
43997 43997 43997 43997
43998 43998 43998 43998
43999 43999 43999 43999
44000 44000 44000 44000
44001 44001 44001 44001
44002 44002 44002 44002
44003 44003 44003 44003
44004 44004 44004 44004
44005 44005 44005 44005
44006 44006 44006 44006
44007 44007 44007 44007
44008 44008 44008 44008
44009 44009 44009 44009
44010 44010 44010 44010
44011 44011 44011 44011
44012 44012 44012 44012
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 6 6 6 6
3-Apr 7 6 8
4-Apr 8 7 9
5-Apr 9 8 10
6-Apr 10 9 12
7-Apr 12 10 14
8-Apr 13 11 16
9-Apr 15 12 19
10-Apr 16 13 22
11-Apr 18 15 25
12-Apr 20 16 28
13-Apr 22 16 31
14-Apr 24 17 35
15-Apr 25 18 38
16-Apr 27 19 42
17-Apr 29 19 45
18-Apr 31 20 49
19-Apr 32 20 53
20-Apr 34 20 56
21-Apr 35 20 59
22-Apr 37 20 62
23-Apr 38 19 65
24-Apr 39 19 68
25-Apr 39 18 70
26-Apr 40 17 72
27-Apr 40 16 73
28-Apr 40 15 74
29-Apr 40 14 74
30-Apr 40 13 74
1-May 39 12 74
2-May 39 11 73
3-May 38 10 72
4-May 37 9 70
5-May 35 8 68
6-May 34 7 66
7-May 33 6 64
8-May 32 5 61
9-May 30 5 59
10-May 28 4 56
11-May 26 3 54
12-May 25 3 51
13-May 23 2 48
14-May 21 2 46
15-May 20 2 43
16-May 18 1 40
17-May 16 1 38
18-May 15 1 35
19-May 14 1 32
20-May 12 1 30
21-May 11 0 27
22-May 9 0 25
23-May 8 0 23
24-May 7 0 21
25-May 6 0 19
26-May 6 0 17
27-May 5 0 15
28-May 4 0 13
29-May 4 0 12
30-May 3 0 10
31-May 3 0 9
1-Jun 2 0 8
2-Jun 2 0 7
3-Jun 2 0 6
4-Jun 1 0 5
5-Jun 1 0 4
6-Jun 1 0 4
7-Jun 1 0 3
8-Jun 1 0 3
9-Jun 0 0 2
10-Jun 0 0 2
11-Jun 0 0 2
12-Jun 0 0 1
13-Jun 0 0 1
14-Jun 0 0 1
15-Jun 0 0 1
16-Jun 0 0 1
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 1387
Low 556
High 2560
43904 43904 43904 43904
43905 43905 43905 43905
43906 43906 43906 43906
43907 43907 43907 43907
43908 43908 43908 43908
43909 43909 43909 43909
43910 43910 43910 43910
43911 43911 43911 43911
43912 43912 43912 43912
43913 43913 43913 43913
43914 43914 43914 43914
43915 43915 43915 43915
43916 43916 43916 43916
43917 43917 43917 43917
43918 43918 43918 43918
43919 43919 43919 43919
43920 43920 43920 43920
43921 43921 43921 43921
43922 43922 43922 43922
43923 43923 43923 43923
43924 43924 43924 43924
43925 43925 43925 43925
43926 43926 43926 43926
43927 43927 43927 43927
43928 43928 43928 43928
43929 43929 43929 43929
43930 43930 43930 43930
43931 43931 43931 43931
43932 43932 43932 43932
43933 43933 43933 43933
43934 43934 43934 43934
43935 43935 43935 43935
43936 43936 43936 43936
43937 43937 43937 43937
43938 43938 43938 43938
43939 43939 43939 43939
43940 43940 43940 43940
43941 43941 43941 43941
43942 43942 43942 43942
43943 43943 43943 43943
43944 43944 43944 43944
43945 43945 43945 43945
43946 43946 43946 43946
43947 43947 43947 43947
43948 43948 43948 43948
43949 43949 43949 43949
43950 43950 43950 43950
43951 43951 43951 43951
43952 43952 43952 43952
43953 43953 43953 43953
43954 43954 43954 43954
43955 43955 43955 43955
43956 43956 43956 43956
43957 43957 43957 43957
43958 43958 43958 43958
43959 43959 43959 43959
43960 43960 43960 43960
43961 43961 43961 43961
43962 43962 43962 43962
43963 43963 43963 43963
43964 43964 43964 43964
43965 43965 43965 43965
43966 43966 43966 43966
43967 43967 43967 43967
43968 43968 43968 43968
43969 43969 43969 43969
43970 43970 43970 43970
43971 43971 43971 43971
43972 43972 43972 43972
43973 43973 43973 43973
43974 43974 43974 43974
43975 43975 43975 43975
43976 43976 43976 43976
43977 43977 43977 43977
43978 43978 43978 43978
43979 43979 43979 43979
43980 43980 43980 43980
43981 43981 43981 43981
43982 43982 43982 43982
43983 43983 43983 43983
43984 43984 43984 43984
43985 43985 43985 43985
43986 43986 43986 43986
43987 43987 43987 43987
43988 43988 43988 43988
43989 43989 43989 43989
43990 43990 43990 43990
43991 43991 43991 43991
43992 43992 43992 43992
43993 43993 43993 43993
43994 43994 43994 43994
43995 43995 43995 43995
43996 43996 43996 43996
43997 43997 43997 43997
43998 43998 43998 43998
43999 43999 43999 43999
44000 44000 44000 44000
44001 44001 44001 44001
44002 44002 44002 44002
44003 44003 44003 44003
44004 44004 44004 44004
44005 44005 44005 44005
44006 44006 44006 44006
44007 44007 44007 44007
44008 44008 44008 44008
44009 44009 44009 44009
44010 44010 44010 44010
44011 44011 44011 44011
44012 44012 44012 44012
Page 6: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Sheet1

Chart1

Total DeathsProjection775Low230High2361
Actual
Projection
Low
High
Deaths Per Day
COVID-19 Deaths
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
5
2
2
3
4
5
3
9
11
12
1
8
13
4
27
13
3
30
14
4
31
15
4
36
16
4
39
18
5
39
19
5
44
20
5
47
21
6
49
21
6
48
23
7
54
23
7
57
23
7
60
24
7
63
24
6
67
24
6
67
24
6
73
24
5
75
24
5
74
23
5
78
23
4
77
22
4
80
21
3
77
20
3
77
19
3
77
18
2
73
17
2
71
16
2
68
15
1
64
14
1
61
13
1
57
12
1
52
11
1
50
10
1
45
9
0
41
8
0
37
7
0
35
6
0
30
5
0
28
5
0
25
4
0
22
4
0
19
3
0
17
3
0
15
2
0
13
2
0
11
2
0
9
1
0
8
1
0
7
1
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet1

JLBC 5

Longer Term Impact of COVID-19

Public health experts recommend gradually lifting social distancing once the incidence rate declines noticeably

ndash If this occurs economy will also improve gradually

As in prior pandemics there could be a 2nd wave later in the year

ndash We will be better prepared for the 2nd wave in terms of mitigation strategies but a vaccine may still be a year away

ndash A possible 2nd wave suggests being cautious with rsquo21 revenue growth rate

Arizona Economic Conditions

JLBC 7

Prior to COVID the State Was Doing Well- Put State in a Better Position for the COVID Recession

Through March General Fund revenues were up by 81

In the Index of Economic Momentum Arizona continued to rank 3rd among states based on last quarter data

But as we noted in our January presentation

ndash The forecast has no recession through rsquo23

bull Recessions are hard to predict usually due to ldquoshockrdquo

JLBC 8

Few Real-Time Indicators Available

Over the last 3 weeks 247000 new initial UI claims have been filed

Phoenix hotel occupancy rate fell by (71) in last week of March

Several restaurant chains reporting (70) decrease in sales

AHCCCS caseloads grew by 42000 in 1 month or an increase of 23

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Slide Number 17
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Slide Number 21
  • Slide Number 22
  • Slide Number 23
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 25
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36

    • ltlt13 ASCII85EncodePages false13 AllowTransparency false13 AutoPositionEPSFiles true13 AutoRotatePages All13 Binding Left13 CalGrayProfile (Gray Gamma 22)13 CalRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21)13 CalCMYKProfile (US Web Coated 050SWOP051 v2)13 sRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21)13 CannotEmbedFontPolicy Warning13 CompatibilityLevel 1713 CompressObjects Tags13 CompressPages true13 ConvertImagesToIndexed true13 PassThroughJPEGImages true13 CreateJobTicket false13 DefaultRenderingIntent Default13 DetectBlends true13 DetectCurves 0100013 ColorConversionStrategy sRGB13 DoThumbnails false13 EmbedAllFonts true13 EmbedOpenType false13 ParseICCProfilesInComments true13 EmbedJobOptions true13 DSCReportingLevel 013 EmitDSCWarnings false13 EndPage -113 ImageMemory 104857613 LockDistillerParams false13 MaxSubsetPct 10013 Optimize true13 OPM 113 ParseDSCComments true13 ParseDSCCommentsForDocInfo true13 PreserveCopyPage true13 PreserveDICMYKValues true13 PreserveEPSInfo true13 PreserveFlatness true13 PreserveHalftoneInfo false13 PreserveOPIComments false13 PreserveOverprintSettings true13 StartPage 113 SubsetFonts true13 TransferFunctionInfo Apply13 UCRandBGInfo Remove13 UsePrologue false13 ColorSettingsFile ()13 AlwaysEmbed [ true13 ]13 NeverEmbed [ true13 Arial-Black13 Arial-BlackItalic13 Arial-BoldItalicMT13 Arial-BoldMT13 Arial-ItalicMT13 ArialMT13 ArialNarrow13 ArialNarrow-Bold13 ArialNarrow-BoldItalic13 ArialNarrow-Italic13 ArialUnicodeMS13 CenturyGothic13 CenturyGothic-Bold13 CenturyGothic-BoldItalic13 CenturyGothic-Italic13 CourierNewPS-BoldItalicMT13 CourierNewPS-BoldMT13 CourierNewPS-ItalicMT13 CourierNewPSMT13 Georgia13 Georgia-Bold13 Georgia-BoldItalic13 Georgia-Italic13 Impact13 LucidaConsole13 Tahoma13 Tahoma-Bold13 TimesNewRomanMT-ExtraBold13 TimesNewRomanPS-BoldItalicMT13 TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT13 TimesNewRomanPS-ItalicMT13 TimesNewRomanPSMT13 Trebuchet-BoldItalic13 TrebuchetMS13 TrebuchetMS-Bold13 TrebuchetMS-Italic13 Verdana13 Verdana-Bold13 Verdana-BoldItalic13 Verdana-Italic13 ]13 AntiAliasColorImages false13 CropColorImages true13 ColorImageMinResolution 15013 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleColorImages true13 ColorImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 ColorImageResolution 15013 ColorImageDepth -113 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 113 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeColorImages true13 ColorImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterColorImages true13 ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 ColorImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 AntiAliasGrayImages false13 CropGrayImages true13 GrayImageMinResolution 15013 GrayImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleGrayImages true13 GrayImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 GrayImageResolution 15013 GrayImageDepth -113 GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 213 GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeGrayImages true13 GrayImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterGrayImages true13 GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 GrayImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 AntiAliasMonoImages false13 CropMonoImages true13 MonoImageMinResolution 120013 MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleMonoImages true13 MonoImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 MonoImageResolution 120013 MonoImageDepth -113 MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeMonoImages true13 MonoImageFilter CCITTFaxEncode13 MonoImageDict ltlt13 K -113 gtgt13 AllowPSXObjects true13 CheckCompliance [13 None13 ]13 PDFX1aCheck false13 PDFX3Check false13 PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false13 PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 3
3-Apr 9
4-Apr 11
5-Apr 12
6-Apr 1
7-Apr 8
8-Apr 13 4 27
9-Apr 13 3 30
10-Apr 14 4 31
11-Apr 15 4 36
12-Apr 16 4 39
13-Apr 18 5 39
14-Apr 19 5 44
15-Apr 20 5 47
16-Apr 21 6 49
17-Apr 21 6 48
18-Apr 23 7 54
19-Apr 23 7 57
20-Apr 23 7 60
21-Apr 24 7 63
22-Apr 24 6 67
23-Apr 24 6 67
24-Apr 24 6 73
25-Apr 24 5 75
26-Apr 24 5 74
27-Apr 23 5 78
28-Apr 23 4 77
29-Apr 22 4 80
30-Apr 21 3 77
1-May 20 3 77
2-May 19 3 77
3-May 18 2 73
4-May 17 2 71
5-May 16 2 68
6-May 15 1 64
7-May 14 1 61
8-May 13 1 57
9-May 12 1 52
10-May 11 1 50
11-May 10 1 45
12-May 9 0 41
13-May 8 0 37
14-May 7 0 35
15-May 6 0 30
16-May 5 0 28
17-May 5 0 25
18-May 4 0 22
19-May 4 0 19
20-May 3 0 17
21-May 3 0 15
22-May 2 0 13
23-May 2 0 11
24-May 2 0 9
25-May 1 0 8
26-May 1 0 7
27-May 1 0 6
28-May 1 0 5
29-May 1 0 4
30-May 1 0 3
31-May 0 0 3
1-Jun 0 0 2
2-Jun 0 0 2
3-Jun 0 0 1
4-Jun 0 0 1
5-Jun 0 0 1
6-Jun 0 0 1
7-Jun 0 0 1
8-Jun 0 0 0
9-Jun 0 0 0
10-Jun 0 0 0
11-Jun 0 0 0
12-Jun 0 0 0
13-Jun 0 0 0
14-Jun 0 0 0
15-Jun 0 0 0
16-Jun 0 0 0
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 776
Low 209
High 2334
43904 43904 43904 43904
43905 43905 43905 43905
43906 43906 43906 43906
43907 43907 43907 43907
43908 43908 43908 43908
43909 43909 43909 43909
43910 43910 43910 43910
43911 43911 43911 43911
43912 43912 43912 43912
43913 43913 43913 43913
43914 43914 43914 43914
43915 43915 43915 43915
43916 43916 43916 43916
43917 43917 43917 43917
43918 43918 43918 43918
43919 43919 43919 43919
43920 43920 43920 43920
43921 43921 43921 43921
43922 43922 43922 43922
43923 43923 43923 43923
43924 43924 43924 43924
43925 43925 43925 43925
43926 43926 43926 43926
43927 43927 43927 43927
43928 43928 43928 43928
43929 43929 43929 43929
43930 43930 43930 43930
43931 43931 43931 43931
43932 43932 43932 43932
43933 43933 43933 43933
43934 43934 43934 43934
43935 43935 43935 43935
43936 43936 43936 43936
43937 43937 43937 43937
43938 43938 43938 43938
43939 43939 43939 43939
43940 43940 43940 43940
43941 43941 43941 43941
43942 43942 43942 43942
43943 43943 43943 43943
43944 43944 43944 43944
43945 43945 43945 43945
43946 43946 43946 43946
43947 43947 43947 43947
43948 43948 43948 43948
43949 43949 43949 43949
43950 43950 43950 43950
43951 43951 43951 43951
43952 43952 43952 43952
43953 43953 43953 43953
43954 43954 43954 43954
43955 43955 43955 43955
43956 43956 43956 43956
43957 43957 43957 43957
43958 43958 43958 43958
43959 43959 43959 43959
43960 43960 43960 43960
43961 43961 43961 43961
43962 43962 43962 43962
43963 43963 43963 43963
43964 43964 43964 43964
43965 43965 43965 43965
43966 43966 43966 43966
43967 43967 43967 43967
43968 43968 43968 43968
43969 43969 43969 43969
43970 43970 43970 43970
43971 43971 43971 43971
43972 43972 43972 43972
43973 43973 43973 43973
43974 43974 43974 43974
43975 43975 43975 43975
43976 43976 43976 43976
43977 43977 43977 43977
43978 43978 43978 43978
43979 43979 43979 43979
43980 43980 43980 43980
43981 43981 43981 43981
43982 43982 43982 43982
43983 43983 43983 43983
43984 43984 43984 43984
43985 43985 43985 43985
43986 43986 43986 43986
43987 43987 43987 43987
43988 43988 43988 43988
43989 43989 43989 43989
43990 43990 43990 43990
43991 43991 43991 43991
43992 43992 43992 43992
43993 43993 43993 43993
43994 43994 43994 43994
43995 43995 43995 43995
43996 43996 43996 43996
43997 43997 43997 43997
43998 43998 43998 43998
43999 43999 43999 43999
44000 44000 44000 44000
44001 44001 44001 44001
44002 44002 44002 44002
44003 44003 44003 44003
44004 44004 44004 44004
44005 44005 44005 44005
44006 44006 44006 44006
44007 44007 44007 44007
44008 44008 44008 44008
44009 44009 44009 44009
44010 44010 44010 44010
44011 44011 44011 44011
44012 44012 44012 44012
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 6 6 6 6
3-Apr 7 6 8
4-Apr 8 7 9
5-Apr 9 8 10
6-Apr 10 9 12
7-Apr 12 10 14
8-Apr 13 11 16
9-Apr 15 12 19
10-Apr 16 13 22
11-Apr 18 15 25
12-Apr 20 16 28
13-Apr 22 16 31
14-Apr 24 17 35
15-Apr 25 18 38
16-Apr 27 19 42
17-Apr 29 19 45
18-Apr 31 20 49
19-Apr 32 20 53
20-Apr 34 20 56
21-Apr 35 20 59
22-Apr 37 20 62
23-Apr 38 19 65
24-Apr 39 19 68
25-Apr 39 18 70
26-Apr 40 17 72
27-Apr 40 16 73
28-Apr 40 15 74
29-Apr 40 14 74
30-Apr 40 13 74
1-May 39 12 74
2-May 39 11 73
3-May 38 10 72
4-May 37 9 70
5-May 35 8 68
6-May 34 7 66
7-May 33 6 64
8-May 32 5 61
9-May 30 5 59
10-May 28 4 56
11-May 26 3 54
12-May 25 3 51
13-May 23 2 48
14-May 21 2 46
15-May 20 2 43
16-May 18 1 40
17-May 16 1 38
18-May 15 1 35
19-May 14 1 32
20-May 12 1 30
21-May 11 0 27
22-May 9 0 25
23-May 8 0 23
24-May 7 0 21
25-May 6 0 19
26-May 6 0 17
27-May 5 0 15
28-May 4 0 13
29-May 4 0 12
30-May 3 0 10
31-May 3 0 9
1-Jun 2 0 8
2-Jun 2 0 7
3-Jun 2 0 6
4-Jun 1 0 5
5-Jun 1 0 4
6-Jun 1 0 4
7-Jun 1 0 3
8-Jun 1 0 3
9-Jun 0 0 2
10-Jun 0 0 2
11-Jun 0 0 2
12-Jun 0 0 1
13-Jun 0 0 1
14-Jun 0 0 1
15-Jun 0 0 1
16-Jun 0 0 1
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 1387
Low 556
High 2560
Page 7: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Chart1

Total DeathsProjection775Low230High2361
Actual
Projection
Low
High
Deaths Per Day
COVID-19 Deaths
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
5
2
2
3
4
5
3
9
11
12
1
8
13
4
27
13
3
30
14
4
31
15
4
36
16
4
39
18
5
39
19
5
44
20
5
47
21
6
49
21
6
48
23
7
54
23
7
57
23
7
60
24
7
63
24
6
67
24
6
67
24
6
73
24
5
75
24
5
74
23
5
78
23
4
77
22
4
80
21
3
77
20
3
77
19
3
77
18
2
73
17
2
71
16
2
68
15
1
64
14
1
61
13
1
57
12
1
52
11
1
50
10
1
45
9
0
41
8
0
37
7
0
35
6
0
30
5
0
28
5
0
25
4
0
22
4
0
19
3
0
17
3
0
15
2
0
13
2
0
11
2
0
9
1
0
8
1
0
7
1
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sheet1

JLBC 5

Longer Term Impact of COVID-19

Public health experts recommend gradually lifting social distancing once the incidence rate declines noticeably

ndash If this occurs economy will also improve gradually

As in prior pandemics there could be a 2nd wave later in the year

ndash We will be better prepared for the 2nd wave in terms of mitigation strategies but a vaccine may still be a year away

ndash A possible 2nd wave suggests being cautious with rsquo21 revenue growth rate

Arizona Economic Conditions

JLBC 7

Prior to COVID the State Was Doing Well- Put State in a Better Position for the COVID Recession

Through March General Fund revenues were up by 81

In the Index of Economic Momentum Arizona continued to rank 3rd among states based on last quarter data

But as we noted in our January presentation

ndash The forecast has no recession through rsquo23

bull Recessions are hard to predict usually due to ldquoshockrdquo

JLBC 8

Few Real-Time Indicators Available

Over the last 3 weeks 247000 new initial UI claims have been filed

Phoenix hotel occupancy rate fell by (71) in last week of March

Several restaurant chains reporting (70) decrease in sales

AHCCCS caseloads grew by 42000 in 1 month or an increase of 23

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
  • Slide Number 2
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
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  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
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  • Slide Number 19
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  • Slide Number 21
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  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36

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GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 213 GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeGrayImages true13 GrayImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterGrayImages true13 GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 GrayImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 AntiAliasMonoImages false13 CropMonoImages true13 MonoImageMinResolution 120013 MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleMonoImages true13 MonoImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 MonoImageResolution 120013 MonoImageDepth -113 MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeMonoImages true13 MonoImageFilter CCITTFaxEncode13 MonoImageDict ltlt13 K -113 gtgt13 AllowPSXObjects true13 CheckCompliance [13 None13 ]13 PDFX1aCheck false13 PDFX3Check false13 PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false13 PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 3
3-Apr 9
4-Apr 11
5-Apr 12
6-Apr 1
7-Apr 8
8-Apr 13 4 27
9-Apr 13 3 30
10-Apr 14 4 31
11-Apr 15 4 36
12-Apr 16 4 39
13-Apr 18 5 39
14-Apr 19 5 44
15-Apr 20 5 47
16-Apr 21 6 49
17-Apr 21 6 48
18-Apr 23 7 54
19-Apr 23 7 57
20-Apr 23 7 60
21-Apr 24 7 63
22-Apr 24 6 67
23-Apr 24 6 67
24-Apr 24 6 73
25-Apr 24 5 75
26-Apr 24 5 74
27-Apr 23 5 78
28-Apr 23 4 77
29-Apr 22 4 80
30-Apr 21 3 77
1-May 20 3 77
2-May 19 3 77
3-May 18 2 73
4-May 17 2 71
5-May 16 2 68
6-May 15 1 64
7-May 14 1 61
8-May 13 1 57
9-May 12 1 52
10-May 11 1 50
11-May 10 1 45
12-May 9 0 41
13-May 8 0 37
14-May 7 0 35
15-May 6 0 30
16-May 5 0 28
17-May 5 0 25
18-May 4 0 22
19-May 4 0 19
20-May 3 0 17
21-May 3 0 15
22-May 2 0 13
23-May 2 0 11
24-May 2 0 9
25-May 1 0 8
26-May 1 0 7
27-May 1 0 6
28-May 1 0 5
29-May 1 0 4
30-May 1 0 3
31-May 0 0 3
1-Jun 0 0 2
2-Jun 0 0 2
3-Jun 0 0 1
4-Jun 0 0 1
5-Jun 0 0 1
6-Jun 0 0 1
7-Jun 0 0 1
8-Jun 0 0 0
9-Jun 0 0 0
10-Jun 0 0 0
11-Jun 0 0 0
12-Jun 0 0 0
13-Jun 0 0 0
14-Jun 0 0 0
15-Jun 0 0 0
16-Jun 0 0 0
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 776
Low 209
High 2334
43904 43904 43904 43904
43905 43905 43905 43905
43906 43906 43906 43906
43907 43907 43907 43907
43908 43908 43908 43908
43909 43909 43909 43909
43910 43910 43910 43910
43911 43911 43911 43911
43912 43912 43912 43912
43913 43913 43913 43913
43914 43914 43914 43914
43915 43915 43915 43915
43916 43916 43916 43916
43917 43917 43917 43917
43918 43918 43918 43918
43919 43919 43919 43919
43920 43920 43920 43920
43921 43921 43921 43921
43922 43922 43922 43922
43923 43923 43923 43923
43924 43924 43924 43924
43925 43925 43925 43925
43926 43926 43926 43926
43927 43927 43927 43927
43928 43928 43928 43928
43929 43929 43929 43929
43930 43930 43930 43930
43931 43931 43931 43931
43932 43932 43932 43932
43933 43933 43933 43933
43934 43934 43934 43934
43935 43935 43935 43935
43936 43936 43936 43936
43937 43937 43937 43937
43938 43938 43938 43938
43939 43939 43939 43939
43940 43940 43940 43940
43941 43941 43941 43941
43942 43942 43942 43942
43943 43943 43943 43943
43944 43944 43944 43944
43945 43945 43945 43945
43946 43946 43946 43946
43947 43947 43947 43947
43948 43948 43948 43948
43949 43949 43949 43949
43950 43950 43950 43950
43951 43951 43951 43951
43952 43952 43952 43952
43953 43953 43953 43953
43954 43954 43954 43954
43955 43955 43955 43955
43956 43956 43956 43956
43957 43957 43957 43957
43958 43958 43958 43958
43959 43959 43959 43959
43960 43960 43960 43960
43961 43961 43961 43961
43962 43962 43962 43962
43963 43963 43963 43963
43964 43964 43964 43964
43965 43965 43965 43965
43966 43966 43966 43966
43967 43967 43967 43967
43968 43968 43968 43968
43969 43969 43969 43969
43970 43970 43970 43970
43971 43971 43971 43971
43972 43972 43972 43972
43973 43973 43973 43973
43974 43974 43974 43974
43975 43975 43975 43975
43976 43976 43976 43976
43977 43977 43977 43977
43978 43978 43978 43978
43979 43979 43979 43979
43980 43980 43980 43980
43981 43981 43981 43981
43982 43982 43982 43982
43983 43983 43983 43983
43984 43984 43984 43984
43985 43985 43985 43985
43986 43986 43986 43986
43987 43987 43987 43987
43988 43988 43988 43988
43989 43989 43989 43989
43990 43990 43990 43990
43991 43991 43991 43991
43992 43992 43992 43992
43993 43993 43993 43993
43994 43994 43994 43994
43995 43995 43995 43995
43996 43996 43996 43996
43997 43997 43997 43997
43998 43998 43998 43998
43999 43999 43999 43999
44000 44000 44000 44000
44001 44001 44001 44001
44002 44002 44002 44002
44003 44003 44003 44003
44004 44004 44004 44004
44005 44005 44005 44005
44006 44006 44006 44006
44007 44007 44007 44007
44008 44008 44008 44008
44009 44009 44009 44009
44010 44010 44010 44010
44011 44011 44011 44011
44012 44012 44012 44012
Page 8: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Sheet1

JLBC 5

Longer Term Impact of COVID-19

Public health experts recommend gradually lifting social distancing once the incidence rate declines noticeably

ndash If this occurs economy will also improve gradually

As in prior pandemics there could be a 2nd wave later in the year

ndash We will be better prepared for the 2nd wave in terms of mitigation strategies but a vaccine may still be a year away

ndash A possible 2nd wave suggests being cautious with rsquo21 revenue growth rate

Arizona Economic Conditions

JLBC 7

Prior to COVID the State Was Doing Well- Put State in a Better Position for the COVID Recession

Through March General Fund revenues were up by 81

In the Index of Economic Momentum Arizona continued to rank 3rd among states based on last quarter data

But as we noted in our January presentation

ndash The forecast has no recession through rsquo23

bull Recessions are hard to predict usually due to ldquoshockrdquo

JLBC 8

Few Real-Time Indicators Available

Over the last 3 weeks 247000 new initial UI claims have been filed

Phoenix hotel occupancy rate fell by (71) in last week of March

Several restaurant chains reporting (70) decrease in sales

AHCCCS caseloads grew by 42000 in 1 month or an increase of 23

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
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  • Slide Number 4
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  • Slide Number 6
  • Slide Number 7
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  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36

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 DEU 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 ESP ltFEFF005500740069006c0069006300650020006500730074006100200063006f006e0066006900670075007200610063006900f3006e0020007000610072006100200063007200650061007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f0073002000640065002000410064006f00620065002000500044004600200061006400650063007500610064006f007300200070006100720061002000760069007300750061006c0069007a00610063006900f3006e0020006500200069006d0070007200650073006900f3006e00200064006500200063006f006e006600690061006e007a006100200064006500200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f007300200063006f006d00650072006300690061006c00650073002e002000530065002000700075006500640065006e00200061006200720069007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f00730020005000440046002000630072006500610064006f007300200063006f006e0020004100630072006f006200610074002c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000200079002000760065007200730069006f006e0065007300200070006f00730074006500720069006f007200650073002egt13 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN ltFEFF30d330b830cd30b9658766f8306e8868793a304a3088307353705237306b90693057305f002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020658766f8306e4f5c6210306b4f7f75283057307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a30674f5c62103055308c305f0020005000440046002030d530a130a430eb306f3001004100630072006f0062006100740020304a30883073002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee5964d3067958b304f30533068304c3067304d307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a3067306f30d530a930f330c8306e57cb30818fbc307f3092884c3044307e30593002gt13 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Column1 Actual Projection Low High
14-Mar 0
15-Mar 0
16-Mar 0
17-Mar 0
18-Mar 0
19-Mar 0
20-Mar 0
21-Mar 1
22-Mar 1
23-Mar 0
24-Mar 3
25-Mar 1
26-Mar 2
27-Mar 5
28-Mar 2
29-Mar 2
30-Mar 3
31-Mar 4
1-Apr 5
2-Apr 3
3-Apr 9
4-Apr 11
5-Apr 12
6-Apr 1
7-Apr 8
8-Apr 13 4 27
9-Apr 13 3 30
10-Apr 14 4 31
11-Apr 15 4 36
12-Apr 16 4 39
13-Apr 18 5 39
14-Apr 19 5 44
15-Apr 20 5 47
16-Apr 21 6 49
17-Apr 21 6 48
18-Apr 23 7 54
19-Apr 23 7 57
20-Apr 23 7 60
21-Apr 24 7 63
22-Apr 24 6 67
23-Apr 24 6 67
24-Apr 24 6 73
25-Apr 24 5 75
26-Apr 24 5 74
27-Apr 23 5 78
28-Apr 23 4 77
29-Apr 22 4 80
30-Apr 21 3 77
1-May 20 3 77
2-May 19 3 77
3-May 18 2 73
4-May 17 2 71
5-May 16 2 68
6-May 15 1 64
7-May 14 1 61
8-May 13 1 57
9-May 12 1 52
10-May 11 1 50
11-May 10 1 45
12-May 9 0 41
13-May 8 0 37
14-May 7 0 35
15-May 6 0 30
16-May 5 0 28
17-May 5 0 25
18-May 4 0 22
19-May 4 0 19
20-May 3 0 17
21-May 3 0 15
22-May 2 0 13
23-May 2 0 11
24-May 2 0 9
25-May 1 0 8
26-May 1 0 7
27-May 1 0 6
28-May 1 0 5
29-May 1 0 4
30-May 1 0 3
31-May 0 0 3
1-Jun 0 0 2
2-Jun 0 0 2
3-Jun 0 0 1
4-Jun 0 0 1
5-Jun 0 0 1
6-Jun 0 0 1
7-Jun 0 0 1
8-Jun 0 0 0
9-Jun 0 0 0
10-Jun 0 0 0
11-Jun 0 0 0
12-Jun 0 0 0
13-Jun 0 0 0
14-Jun 0 0 0
15-Jun 0 0 0
16-Jun 0 0 0
17-Jun 0 0 0
18-Jun 0 0 0
19-Jun 0 0 0
20-Jun 0 0 0
21-Jun 0 0 0
22-Jun 0 0 0
23-Jun 0 0 0
24-Jun 0 0 0
25-Jun 0 0 0
26-Jun 0 0 0
27-Jun 0 0 0
28-Jun 0 0 0
29-Jun 0 0 0
30-Jun 0 0 0
Projection 776
Low 209
High 2334
Page 9: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 5

Longer Term Impact of COVID-19

Public health experts recommend gradually lifting social distancing once the incidence rate declines noticeably

ndash If this occurs economy will also improve gradually

As in prior pandemics there could be a 2nd wave later in the year

ndash We will be better prepared for the 2nd wave in terms of mitigation strategies but a vaccine may still be a year away

ndash A possible 2nd wave suggests being cautious with rsquo21 revenue growth rate

Arizona Economic Conditions

JLBC 7

Prior to COVID the State Was Doing Well- Put State in a Better Position for the COVID Recession

Through March General Fund revenues were up by 81

In the Index of Economic Momentum Arizona continued to rank 3rd among states based on last quarter data

But as we noted in our January presentation

ndash The forecast has no recession through rsquo23

bull Recessions are hard to predict usually due to ldquoshockrdquo

JLBC 8

Few Real-Time Indicators Available

Over the last 3 weeks 247000 new initial UI claims have been filed

Phoenix hotel occupancy rate fell by (71) in last week of March

Several restaurant chains reporting (70) decrease in sales

AHCCCS caseloads grew by 42000 in 1 month or an increase of 23

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN ltFEFF004200720075006700200069006e0064007300740069006c006c0069006e006700650072006e0065002000740069006c0020006100740020006f007000720065007400740065002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400650072002c0020006400650072002000650067006e006500720020007300690067002000740069006c00200064006500740061006c006a006500720065007400200073006b00e60072006d007600690073006e0069006e00670020006f00670020007500640073006b007200690076006e0069006e006700200061006600200066006f0072007200650074006e0069006e006700730064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400650072002e0020004400650020006f007000720065007400740065006400650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e0074006500720020006b0061006e002000e50062006e00650073002000690020004100630072006f00620061007400200065006c006c006500720020004100630072006f006200610074002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020006f00670020006e0079006500720065002egt13 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN ltFEFF30d330b830cd30b9658766f8306e8868793a304a3088307353705237306b90693057305f002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020658766f8306e4f5c6210306b4f7f75283057307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a30674f5c62103055308c305f0020005000440046002030d530a130a430eb306f3001004100630072006f0062006100740020304a30883073002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee5964d3067958b304f30533068304c3067304d307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a3067306f30d530a930f330c8306e57cb30818fbc307f3092884c3044307e30593002gt13 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents 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Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 10: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Arizona Economic Conditions

JLBC 7

Prior to COVID the State Was Doing Well- Put State in a Better Position for the COVID Recession

Through March General Fund revenues were up by 81

In the Index of Economic Momentum Arizona continued to rank 3rd among states based on last quarter data

But as we noted in our January presentation

ndash The forecast has no recession through rsquo23

bull Recessions are hard to predict usually due to ldquoshockrdquo

JLBC 8

Few Real-Time Indicators Available

Over the last 3 weeks 247000 new initial UI claims have been filed

Phoenix hotel occupancy rate fell by (71) in last week of March

Several restaurant chains reporting (70) decrease in sales

AHCCCS caseloads grew by 42000 in 1 month or an increase of 23

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
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  • Slide Number 36

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Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 11: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 7

Prior to COVID the State Was Doing Well- Put State in a Better Position for the COVID Recession

Through March General Fund revenues were up by 81

In the Index of Economic Momentum Arizona continued to rank 3rd among states based on last quarter data

But as we noted in our January presentation

ndash The forecast has no recession through rsquo23

bull Recessions are hard to predict usually due to ldquoshockrdquo

JLBC 8

Few Real-Time Indicators Available

Over the last 3 weeks 247000 new initial UI claims have been filed

Phoenix hotel occupancy rate fell by (71) in last week of March

Several restaurant chains reporting (70) decrease in sales

AHCCCS caseloads grew by 42000 in 1 month or an increase of 23

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents 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Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 12: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 8

Few Real-Time Indicators Available

Over the last 3 weeks 247000 new initial UI claims have been filed

Phoenix hotel occupancy rate fell by (71) in last week of March

Several restaurant chains reporting (70) decrease in sales

AHCCCS caseloads grew by 42000 in 1 month or an increase of 23

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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  • Slide Number 36

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Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 13: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 9

No Useful Revenue Data Yet

Given the time between paychecks and transmittal of withholding no noticeable decline in income tax yet

Businesses do not transmit that monthrsquos TPT collections until the end of the following month

We will not have useful TPT data for another month

ndash Early May March collections reported (12 a bad month)

ndash Early June April collections reported (a full bad month)

ndash Early July May collections reported (likely a bad month)

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB ltFEFF005500740069006c0069007a006500200065007300730061007300200063006f006e00660069006700750072006100e700f50065007300200064006500200066006f0072006d00610020006100200063007200690061007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f0073002000410064006f00620065002000500044004600200061006400650071007500610064006f00730020007000610072006100200061002000760069007300750061006c0069007a006100e700e3006f002000650020006100200069006d0070007200650073007300e3006f00200063006f006e0066006900e1007600650069007300200064006500200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f007300200063006f006d0065007200630069006100690073002e0020004f007300200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f00730020005000440046002000630072006900610064006f007300200070006f00640065006d0020007300650072002000610062006500720074006f007300200063006f006d0020006f0020004100630072006f006200610074002000650020006f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e0030002000650020007600650072007300f50065007300200070006f00730074006500720069006f007200650073002egt13 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 14: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Forecasting State Revenues

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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  • Slide Number 36

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Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 15: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 11

April Tax Payments to Deferred to July- Complicates State Accounting

April final income tax payments are now due in July

The estimated payment deadlines (April 15 June 15) have NOT been deferred

Deferral is primarily an Individual Income Tax issue as corporations generally pay through quarterly estimates

As a result forecast shifts $676 M in General Fund revenue collections from rsquo20 to rsquo21

4-Sector forecast displayed with and without deferral the latter provides better sense of underlying economy

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN ltFEFF004200720075006700200069006e0064007300740069006c006c0069006e006700650072006e0065002000740069006c0020006100740020006f007000720065007400740065002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400650072002c0020006400650072002000650067006e006500720020007300690067002000740069006c00200064006500740061006c006a006500720065007400200073006b00e60072006d007600690073006e0069006e00670020006f00670020007500640073006b007200690076006e0069006e006700200061006600200066006f0072007200650074006e0069006e006700730064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400650072002e0020004400650020006f007000720065007400740065006400650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e0074006500720020006b0061006e002000e50062006e00650073002000690020004100630072006f00620061007400200065006c006c006500720020004100630072006f006200610074002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020006f00670020006e0079006500720065002egt13 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 16: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 12

April 4-Sector Forecast- Without Deferral (28) Decline in rsquo20 (15) Decline in rsquo21

Excludes balance forward one-time transfers and urban revenue sharing

See Appendix A1 A2 B1 and B2

April Consensus Forecast Finance Advisory Committee UA model ndash base UA model ndash low JLBC Staff

Represents Net Growth Includes enacted law changes

Long Run Average Growth 42

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 17: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Revenue GrowthApril 4-Sector Forecast
-0085
-0028
011
-0015
0019
008
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN ltFEFF30d330b830cd30b9658766f8306e8868793a304a3088307353705237306b90693057305f002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020658766f8306e4f5c6210306b4f7f75283057307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a30674f5c62103055308c305f0020005000440046002030d530a130a430eb306f3001004100630072006f0062006100740020304a30883073002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee5964d3067958b304f30533068304c3067304d307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a3067306f30d530a930f330c8306e57cb30818fbc307f3092884c3044307e30593002gt13 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents 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Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 18: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Sheet1

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
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  • Slide Number 36

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Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
With Deferral Without Deferral
20 -85 -28
21 110 -15
22 19 80
23 54
Page 19: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 13

April Forecast Versus Enacted Budget- April Estimates Exclude the Deferral

(28) in rsquo20 is a combination of 81 growth for 3 quarters and (236) decline in Q4 (excluding deferral)

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU ltFEFF00560065007200770065006e00640065006e0020005300690065002000640069006500730065002000450069006e007300740065006c006c0075006e00670065006e0020007a0075006d002000450072007300740065006c006c0065006e00200076006f006e002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002d0044006f006b0075006d0065006e00740065006e002c00200075006d002000650069006e00650020007a0075007600650072006c00e40073007300690067006500200041006e007a006500690067006500200075006e00640020004100750073006700610062006500200076006f006e00200047006500730063006800e40066007400730064006f006b0075006d0065006e00740065006e0020007a0075002000650072007a00690065006c0065006e002e00200044006900650020005000440046002d0044006f006b0075006d0065006e007400650020006b00f6006e006e0065006e0020006d006900740020004100630072006f00620061007400200075006e0064002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000200075006e00640020006800f600680065007200200067006500f600660066006e00650074002000770065007200640065006e002egt13 ESP ltFEFF005500740069006c0069006300650020006500730074006100200063006f006e0066006900670075007200610063006900f3006e0020007000610072006100200063007200650061007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f0073002000640065002000410064006f00620065002000500044004600200061006400650063007500610064006f007300200070006100720061002000760069007300750061006c0069007a00610063006900f3006e0020006500200069006d0070007200650073006900f3006e00200064006500200063006f006e006600690061006e007a006100200064006500200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f007300200063006f006d00650072006300690061006c00650073002e002000530065002000700075006500640065006e00200061006200720069007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f00730020005000440046002000630072006500610064006f007300200063006f006e0020004100630072006f006200610074002c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000200079002000760065007200730069006f006e0065007300200070006f00730074006500720069006f007200650073002egt13 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 20: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Chart1

January FAC
April FAC
YY Change
Net Revenue Growth Rate
0036
-0028
0041
-0015
0033
008
0041
0054

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
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  • Slide Number 35
  • Slide Number 36

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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 21: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Sheet1

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF 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ltFEFF005500740069006c0069007a006500200065007300730061007300200063006f006e00660069006700750072006100e700f50065007300200064006500200066006f0072006d00610020006100200063007200690061007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f0073002000410064006f00620065002000500044004600200061006400650071007500610064006f00730020007000610072006100200061002000760069007300750061006c0069007a006100e700e3006f002000650020006100200069006d0070007200650073007300e3006f00200063006f006e0066006900e1007600650069007300200064006500200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f007300200063006f006d0065007200630069006100690073002e0020004f007300200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f00730020005000440046002000630072006900610064006f007300200070006f00640065006d0020007300650072002000610062006500720074006f007300200063006f006d0020006f0020004100630072006f006200610074002000650020006f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e0030002000650020007600650072007300f50065007300200070006f00730074006500720069006f007200650073002egt13 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can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
January FAC April FAC Column1
20 36 -28
21 41 -15
22 33 80
23 41 54
Page 22: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 14

rsquo19 Actual = $51 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 84

Net (29) 33 66 54

Sales Tax

JLBC Staff Sector Change by Category

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Retail (32) 3

Contracting 9 2

Use (25) 2

RestaurantBar (70) 1

Utilities (6) (2)

Hotel (70) 5

Total (31) 2

Within retail Auto TPT would decline (50) in Q4

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP ltFEFF005500740069006c0069006300650020006500730074006100200063006f006e0066006900670075007200610063006900f3006e0020007000610072006100200063007200650061007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f0073002000640065002000410064006f00620065002000500044004600200061006400650063007500610064006f007300200070006100720061002000760069007300750061006c0069007a00610063006900f3006e0020006500200069006d0070007200650073006900f3006e00200064006500200063006f006e006600690061006e007a006100200064006500200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f007300200063006f006d00650072006300690061006c00650073002e002000530065002000700075006500640065006e00200061006200720069007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f00730020005000440046002000630072006500610064006f007300200063006f006e0020004100630072006f006200610074002c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000200079002000760065007200730069006f006e0065007300200070006f00730074006500720069006f007200650073002egt13 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
Page 23: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
49
51
54
57

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
20
21
22
23
Page 24: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Sheet1

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN ltFEFF30d330b830cd30b9658766f8306e8868793a304a3088307353705237306b90693057305f002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020658766f8306e4f5c6210306b4f7f75283057307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a30674f5c62103055308c305f0020005000440046002030d530a130a430eb306f3001004100630072006f0062006100740020304a30883073002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee5964d3067958b304f30533068304c3067304d307e305930023053306e8a2d5b9a3067306f30d530a930f330c8306e57cb30818fbc307f3092884c3044307e30593002gt13 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 49
21 $ 51
22 $ 54
23 $ 57
Page 25: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 15

Individual Income Tax

Net w Deferral

(173) 261 (34) 58

rsquo19 Actual = $50 Billion

rsquo20 YTD = 58

JLBC Sector Change by Category(without Deferral)

rsquo20 Q4 rsquo21

Withholding (15) (2)

Payments (13) (17)

Refunds 22 (6)

Total (23) (6)

Withholding forecast to drop (15) in Q4 and (19) in rsquo21

Excluding deferral payments fall (13) in rsquo20 due to TY rsquo19 tax reductions

Due to stock market decline payments reduced (17) in rsquo21

Net wout Deferral

(38) (55) 109 58

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
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  • Slide Number 36

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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 26: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Chart1

With Deferral
Without Deferral
Net Collections
41
48
52
46
5
53

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
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Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
Page 27: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Sheet1

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
With Deferral Without Deferral Series 3
20 $ 41 48
21 $ 52 46
22 $ 50
23 $ 53
Page 28: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 16

Corporate Income Tax

rsquo19 Actual = $514 Million

rsquo20 YTD = 420

Net 36 (62) 122 70

4-Sector forecasts a Q4 decline of (39)

CIT especially sensitive to economy

Lost 58 of its value in Great Recession

JLBC Staff projects (22) drop in rsquo21 to $426 M

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
Page 29: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Chart1

Series 1
Net Collections
533
500
561
600

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
20
21
22
23
Page 30: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Sheet1

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN ltFEFF004200720075006700200069006e0064007300740069006c006c0069006e006700650072006e0065002000740069006c0020006100740020006f007000720065007400740065002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400650072002c0020006400650072002000650067006e006500720020007300690067002000740069006c00200064006500740061006c006a006500720065007400200073006b00e60072006d007600690073006e0069006e00670020006f00670020007500640073006b007200690076006e0069006e006700200061006600200066006f0072007200650074006e0069006e006700730064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400650072002e0020004400650020006f007000720065007400740065006400650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e0074006500720020006b0061006e002000e50062006e00650073002000690020004100630072006f00620061007400200065006c006c006500720020004100630072006f006200610074002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020006f00670020006e0079006500720065002egt13 DEU ltFEFF00560065007200770065006e00640065006e0020005300690065002000640069006500730065002000450069006e007300740065006c006c0075006e00670065006e0020007a0075006d002000450072007300740065006c006c0065006e00200076006f006e002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002d0044006f006b0075006d0065006e00740065006e002c00200075006d002000650069006e00650020007a0075007600650072006c00e40073007300690067006500200041006e007a006500690067006500200075006e00640020004100750073006700610062006500200076006f006e00200047006500730063006800e40066007400730064006f006b0075006d0065006e00740065006e0020007a0075002000650072007a00690065006c0065006e002e00200044006900650020005000440046002d0044006f006b0075006d0065006e007400650020006b00f6006e006e0065006e0020006d006900740020004100630072006f00620061007400200075006e0064002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000200075006e00640020006800f600680065007200200067006500f600660066006e00650074002000770065007200640065006e002egt13 ESP 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 FRA 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ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
20 $ 533
21 $ 500
22 $ 561
23 $ 600
Page 31: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Formula Spending Adjustments

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Page 32: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 18

Feds Increasing Medicaid Match Rate- Savings Are Partially Offset by Caseload Increases

Retroactive to January feds have increased their share of Medicaid costs by 62

ndash Will last as long as federal emergency declaration

AHCCCS caseloads expected to increase dramatically

ndash 20 by July another 10 through rsquo21

ndash From trough to peak caseload grew by 27 in Great Recession

April forecast assumes net savings of $(237) M in rsquo20 and $(130) M in rsquo21

ndash Includes DESDevelopmental Disabilities impact

ndash Assumes emergency lasts until June rsquo21

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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Page 33: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Projected Ending Balances

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Page 34: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 20

Projected Cash Shortfall of $(11) B

$ in MIncurred During rsquo20 (638)Incurred During rsquo21 (462)Total Shortfall (1100)

The $(11) B shortfall assumes the rsquo20 shortfall is rolled over into rsquo21

AZ Constitution allows incurred debts to be paid in following year

Likely range of shortfall $(600) M - $(16) B

See Appendix C

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Page 35: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 21

Cash Shortfalls Persist through rsquo23

rsquo22 shortfall = $(10) B and rsquo23 shortfall = $(624) M

Estimates assume that rsquo21 shortfall is resolved and not rolled into rsquo22

We project that the higher federal Medicaid rate will end in rsquo22 Causes half of the $(10) B rsquo22 shortfall

With each succeeding year accuracy of the estimates declines considerablyndash 1 error in each of 3 years changes balance by $725 M

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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Page 36: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Potential Approaches to Shortfall

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF 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ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Page 37: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 23

Potential Approaches for $(638) M rsquo20 Shortfall

Roll problem into rsquo21 and resolve as part of rsquo21 budget changesndash State used this approach in rsquo09

Statutorily withdraw monies from $973 M Rainy Day Fundndash Need flexibility since shortfall unknown until after 630ndash Authorize JLBC StaffOSPB to determine transfer that will result

in $1 M balancendash State used this approach in rsquo08

Federal funds offset ndash discussed later

Fund transfers ndash better to deploy in rsquo21

Agency budget reductions ndash hard to implement at end of fiscal year

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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ltFEFF0041006e007600e4006e00640020006400650020006800e4007200200069006e0073007400e4006c006c006e0069006e006700610072006e00610020006f006d002000640075002000760069006c006c00200073006b006100700061002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400200073006f006d00200070006100730073006100720020006600f60072002000740069006c006c006600f60072006c00690074006c006900670020007600690073006e0069006e00670020006f006300680020007500740073006b007200690066007400650072002000610076002000610066006600e4007200730064006f006b0075006d0065006e0074002e002000200053006b006100700061006400650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e00740020006b0061006e002000f600700070006e00610073002000690020004100630072006f0062006100740020006f00630068002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020006f00630068002000730065006e006100720065002egt13 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Page 38: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 24

Potential Approaches for $(11) B rsquo21 Shortfall- Assumes Rollover of rsquo20 Shortfall

Up to $973 M in Rainy Day Fund

Use of federal COVID $

Fund transfers

Revenuespending adjustments

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents 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Page 39: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 25

Federal Fund Options

$16 B from Federal Coronavirus Relief Fund

ndash Likely limited to reimbursing COVID-related spending

ndash Much less flexible than depositing into General Fund

ndash At minimum $50 M Crisis Contingency Fund appropriation is reimbursable (up to actual expenditure)

$277 M from K-12 Emergency Relief Fund

ndash Subject to a ldquoMaintenance of Effortrdquo provision

ndash AZ spends $866 M above MOE level

ndash Could use all $ to supplant or supplement K-12

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Page 40: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 26

Federal Fund Options (Cont)

$190 M from Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund

ndash $118 M to public universities and $72 M to community colleges

ndash AZ spends $11 M above MOE level

$69 M from Governorrsquos Emergency Education Relief Fund

ndash Governor determines allocation

ndash Used for any level of education including child care

ndash Only available if meeting K-12 and Higher Ed MOEs

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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Page 41: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 27

Next Steps

Challenging to craft solution when magnitude of problem is uncertain

By early June we will have more data to assess problem

ndash April and May withholding

ndash April TPT collection

We plan to revisit our forecast at least once by June

In meantime develop potential solution sets which could be implemented near the beginning of the fiscal year

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF 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ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Page 42: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 28

Historical Perspectives

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE ltFEFF0041006e007600e4006e00640020006400650020006800e4007200200069006e0073007400e4006c006c006e0069006e006700610072006e00610020006f006d002000640075002000760069006c006c00200073006b006100700061002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400200073006f006d00200070006100730073006100720020006600f60072002000740069006c006c006600f60072006c00690074006c006900670020007600690073006e0069006e00670020006f006300680020007500740073006b007200690066007400650072002000610076002000610066006600e4007200730064006f006b0075006d0065006e0074002e002000200053006b006100700061006400650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e00740020006b0061006e002000f600700070006e00610073002000690020004100630072006f0062006100740020006f00630068002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020006f00630068002000730065006e006100720065002egt13 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents 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Page 43: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

Appendices

JLBC

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF 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ltFEFF0041006e007600e4006e00640020006400650020006800e4007200200069006e0073007400e4006c006c006e0069006e006700610072006e00610020006f006d002000640075002000760069006c006c00200073006b006100700061002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400200073006f006d00200070006100730073006100720020006600f60072002000740069006c006c006600f60072006c00690074006c006900670020007600690073006e0069006e00670020006f006300680020007500740073006b007200690066007400650072002000610076002000610066006600e4007200730064006f006b0075006d0065006e0074002e002000200053006b006100700061006400650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e00740020006b0061006e002000f600700070006e00610073002000690020004100630072006f0062006100740020006f00630068002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020006f00630068002000730065006e006100720065002egt13 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents 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Page 44: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 3030

Appendix A1 April 4-Sector Forecast With Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 55

Individual Income Tax with DeferralJLBC Forecast -186 264 -35 75UA ndash Low -173 246 -41 49UA ndash Base -163 275 -29 53FAC -169 261 -33 53

Average -173 261 -34 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -98 108 28 72UA Low Weighted Average -100 116 15 56UA Base Weighted Average -85 139 24 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -73 124 15 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -89 122 21 55Consensus Weighted Average -85 110 19 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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Page 45: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 3131

Appendix A2 April 4-Sector Forecast Without Deferral2020 2021 2022 2023

Sales TaxJLBC Forecast -42 22 82 72UA ndash Low -51 31 64 66UA ndash Base -35 47 65 37FAC 11 31 54 44

Average -29 33 66 54

Individual Income Tax without DeferralJLBC Forecast -51 -57 110 75UA ndash Low -41 -64 100 49UA ndash Base -30 -36 109 53FAC -29 -64 116 53

Average -38 -55 109 58

Corporate Income Tax JLBC Forecast 70 -225 178 97UA ndash Low 50 -32 101 50UA ndash Base 97 13 127 60FAC -71 03 89 78

Average 36 -62 122 70

Insurance Premium Tax JLBC Forecast 16 50 20 20UA ndash Low -22 35 22 21UA ndash Base -13 53 37 25FAC 16 68 37 40

Average -01 52 29 27

JLBC Weighted Average -38 -24 95 72UA Low Weighted Average -40 -15 79 56UA Base Weighted Average -26 08 86 45FAC Consensus Weighted Average -10 -10 80 49

ldquoBig-4rdquo Weighted Average -29 -10 85 55Consensus Weighted Average -28 -15 80 54

Represents ongoing revenue adjusted for small revenue categories

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF 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ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Page 46: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 32

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 with Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 41446375 -173 (8643831) 52283427 261 10837052

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 102736819 -89 (9977661) 115135300 121 12398481Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 107970447 -85 (10090657) 119812156 110 11841709 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 100594711 -96 (10718349) 111527229 109 10932518

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 101503118 -96 (10814200) 111694229 100 10191111

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 (6382200) NA (15954610)

116813637 139 111075528 -49 (5738110) 105312029 -52 (5763499)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF 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ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Page 47: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 33

Appendix B1 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 with Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 -34 (1793321) 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 21 2447203 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 19 2272261 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 32 3540776 120105598 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 33 3740776 120272598 42 4837594

Balance Forward - NA 6382200 - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272598 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN ltFEFF004200720075006700200069006e0064007300740069006c006c0069006e006700650072006e0065002000740069006c0020006100740020006f007000720065007400740065002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400650072002c0020006400650072002000650067006e006500720020007300690067002000740069006c00200064006500740061006c006a006500720065007400200073006b00e60072006d007600690073006e0069006e00670020006f00670020007500640073006b007200690076006e0069006e006700200061006600200066006f0072007200650074006e0069006e006700730064006f006b0075006d0065006e007400650072002e0020004400650020006f007000720065007400740065006400650020005000440046002d0064006f006b0075006d0065006e0074006500720020006b0061006e002000e50062006e00650073002000690020004100630072006f00620061007400200065006c006c006500720020004100630072006f006200610074002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020006f00670020006e0079006500720065002egt13 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF 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ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Page 48: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 34

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo19 - rsquo21 without Deferral

ACTUAL CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2019 PRIOR YR FY 2020 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2021 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 50968799 65 49474988 -29 (1493811) 51097658 33 1622670 Income - Individual 50090206 102 48201416 -38 (1888790) 45528386 -55 (2673030)

- Corporate 5142641 378 5329704 36 187064 4999164 -62 (330540) Property 296833 -233 281374 -52 (15459) 289492 29 8118 Luxury - Tobacco 210408 -43 210690 01 282 205804 -23 (4886)

- Liquor 372594 34 371022 -04 (1572) 338288 -88 (32733) Insurance Premium 5497606 79 5493764 -01 (3842) 5777285 52 283522 Other Taxes 135394 770 128902 -48 (6492) 144180 119 15278 Subtotal - Taxes 112714480 92 109491860 -29 (3222620) 108380259 -10 (1111601)Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 828861 211 1035947 250 207086 907539 -124 (128408) Licenses Fees and Permits 320195 -157 326626 20 6430 333433 21 6808 Interest 531067 1413 292901 -448 (238166) 210017 -283 (82884) Sales and Services 240540 -295 210189 -126 (30350) 204650 -26 (5539) Other Miscellaneous 1113138 28 1126559 12 13421 1160243 30 33684 Transfers and Reimbursements 633652 561 1009547 593 375895 673369 -333 (336178) Public Safety Transfers 723645 NA 233432 -677 (490213) 233432 00 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 955526 142 998426 45 42901 954173 -44 (44253) Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 5346623 353 5233628 -21 (112996) 467686 -106 (556771)

118061103 102 114725488 -28 (3335616) 113057115 -15 (1668373) Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (6748044) NA (7375736) NA (627692) (8284927) NA (909191)

111313059 109 107349752 -36 (3963308) 104772188 -24 (2577564)

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 1004259 350 18407 -982 (985852) 00 -1000 (18407) Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 00 NA 690000 NA 690000 167000 -758 (523000) Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Water Infrastructure Repayment 00 NA 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 1004259 350 908407 -95 (95852) 167000 -816 (741407)

112317317 111 108258159 -36 (4059159) 104939188 -31 (3318971)

Balance Forward 4496320 1980 9572410 1129 5076090 372841 -961 (9199569)

116813637 139 117830569 09 1016931 105312029 -106 (12518540)

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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PreserveHalftoneInfo false13 PreserveOPIComments false13 PreserveOverprintSettings true13 StartPage 113 SubsetFonts true13 TransferFunctionInfo Apply13 UCRandBGInfo Remove13 UsePrologue false13 ColorSettingsFile ()13 AlwaysEmbed [ true13 ]13 NeverEmbed [ true13 Arial-Black13 Arial-BlackItalic13 Arial-BoldItalicMT13 Arial-BoldMT13 Arial-ItalicMT13 ArialMT13 ArialNarrow13 ArialNarrow-Bold13 ArialNarrow-BoldItalic13 ArialNarrow-Italic13 ArialUnicodeMS13 CenturyGothic13 CenturyGothic-Bold13 CenturyGothic-BoldItalic13 CenturyGothic-Italic13 CourierNewPS-BoldItalicMT13 CourierNewPS-BoldMT13 CourierNewPS-ItalicMT13 CourierNewPSMT13 Georgia13 Georgia-Bold13 Georgia-BoldItalic13 Georgia-Italic13 Impact13 LucidaConsole13 Tahoma13 Tahoma-Bold13 TimesNewRomanMT-ExtraBold13 TimesNewRomanPS-BoldItalicMT13 TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT13 TimesNewRomanPS-ItalicMT13 TimesNewRomanPSMT13 Trebuchet-BoldItalic13 TrebuchetMS13 TrebuchetMS-Bold13 TrebuchetMS-Italic13 Verdana13 Verdana-Bold13 Verdana-BoldItalic13 Verdana-Italic13 ]13 AntiAliasColorImages false13 CropColorImages true13 ColorImageMinResolution 15013 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleColorImages true13 ColorImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 ColorImageResolution 15013 ColorImageDepth -113 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 113 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeColorImages true13 ColorImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterColorImages true13 ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 ColorImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 AntiAliasGrayImages false13 CropGrayImages true13 GrayImageMinResolution 15013 GrayImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleGrayImages true13 GrayImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 GrayImageResolution 15013 GrayImageDepth -113 GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 213 GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeGrayImages true13 GrayImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterGrayImages true13 GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 GrayImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 AntiAliasMonoImages false13 CropMonoImages true13 MonoImageMinResolution 120013 MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleMonoImages true13 MonoImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 MonoImageResolution 120013 MonoImageDepth -113 MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeMonoImages true13 MonoImageFilter CCITTFaxEncode13 MonoImageDict ltlt13 K -113 gtgt13 AllowPSXObjects true13 CheckCompliance [13 None13 ]13 PDFX1aCheck false13 PDFX3Check false13 PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false13 PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 DEU 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 ESP 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 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 PTB 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Page 49: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 35

Appendix B2 Revenue rsquo22 - rsquo23 without Deferral

FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGE FORECAST CHANGE $ CHANGEFY 2022 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR FY 2023 PRIOR YR PRIOR YR

Sales and Use 54471322 66 3373664 57437492 54 2966170 Income - Individual 50490106 109 4961720 53397031 58 2906925

- Corporate 5608375 122 609210 6001163 70 392788 Property 297878 29 8386 306541 29 8663 Luxury - Tobacco 201146 -23 (4658) 196588 -23 (4558)

- Liquor 407159 204 68871 418308 27 11149 Insurance Premium 5945205 29 167920 6104079 27 158874 Other Taxes 161312 119 17131 180523 119 19212 Subtotal - Taxes 117582503 85 9202244 124041726 55 6459223Other Non-Tax Revenues Lottery 940409 36 32870 1043767 110 103358 Licenses Fees and Permits 340641 22 7208 348274 22 7632 Interest 172271 -180 (37745) 157913 -83 (14358) Sales and Services 200246 -22 (4404) 196901 -17 (3344) Other Miscellaneous 1194448 29 34205 1229149 29 34701 Transfers and Reimbursements 697871 36 24502 723949 37 26078 Public Safety Transfers 00 -1000 (233432) 00 NA 00 Disproportionate Share Revenue 956028 02 1855 956308 00 280 Subtotal - Other Non-Tax 4501914 -37 (174942) 4656261 34 154347

122084417 80 9027302 128697987 54 6613571 Urban Revenue Sharing (URS) (7016412) NA 1268515 (8592389) NA (1575977)

115068005 98 10295817 120105599 44 5037594

One-Time Financing Sources Pre-2019 Enacted Fund Transfers 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Prescription Drug Rebate Fund Transfer 167000 00 00 167000 00 00 Wells Fargo Settlement Fund Transfer 00 NA 00 00 NA 00 Water Infrastructure Repayment 200000 NA 200000 00 -1000 (200000) Subtotal - One-Time Financing Sources 367000 1198 200000 167000 -545 (200000)

115435005 100 10495817 120272599 42 4837594

Balance Forward - -1000 (372841) - NA 00

115435005 96 10122976 120272599 42 4837594

FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH($ in Thousands)

Net Ongoing Revenue

Net Ongoing Revenue w URS

Subtotal - Revenues

Total - Resources

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

  • Slide Number 1
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    • ltlt13 ASCII85EncodePages false13 AllowTransparency false13 AutoPositionEPSFiles true13 AutoRotatePages All13 Binding Left13 CalGrayProfile (Gray Gamma 22)13 CalRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21)13 CalCMYKProfile (US Web Coated 050SWOP051 v2)13 sRGBProfile (sRGB IEC61966-21)13 CannotEmbedFontPolicy Warning13 CompatibilityLevel 1713 CompressObjects Tags13 CompressPages true13 ConvertImagesToIndexed true13 PassThroughJPEGImages true13 CreateJobTicket false13 DefaultRenderingIntent Default13 DetectBlends true13 DetectCurves 0100013 ColorConversionStrategy sRGB13 DoThumbnails false13 EmbedAllFonts true13 EmbedOpenType false13 ParseICCProfilesInComments true13 EmbedJobOptions true13 DSCReportingLevel 013 EmitDSCWarnings false13 EndPage -113 ImageMemory 104857613 LockDistillerParams false13 MaxSubsetPct 10013 Optimize true13 OPM 113 ParseDSCComments true13 ParseDSCCommentsForDocInfo true13 PreserveCopyPage true13 PreserveDICMYKValues true13 PreserveEPSInfo true13 PreserveFlatness true13 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Verdana-Italic13 ]13 AntiAliasColorImages false13 CropColorImages true13 ColorImageMinResolution 15013 ColorImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleColorImages true13 ColorImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 ColorImageResolution 15013 ColorImageDepth -113 ColorImageMinDownsampleDepth 113 ColorImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeColorImages true13 ColorImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterColorImages true13 ColorImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 ColorImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 JPEG2000ColorImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 AntiAliasGrayImages false13 CropGrayImages true13 GrayImageMinResolution 15013 GrayImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleGrayImages true13 GrayImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 GrayImageResolution 15013 GrayImageDepth -113 GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 213 GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeGrayImages true13 GrayImageFilter DCTEncode13 AutoFilterGrayImages true13 GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy JPEG13 GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 GrayImageDict ltlt13 QFactor 07613 HSamples [2 1 1 2] VSamples [2 1 1 2]13 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 JPEG2000GrayImageDict ltlt13 TileWidth 25613 TileHeight 25613 Quality 1513 gtgt13 AntiAliasMonoImages false13 CropMonoImages true13 MonoImageMinResolution 120013 MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy OK13 DownsampleMonoImages true13 MonoImageDownsampleType Bicubic13 MonoImageResolution 120013 MonoImageDepth -113 MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 15000013 EncodeMonoImages true13 MonoImageFilter CCITTFaxEncode13 MonoImageDict ltlt13 K -113 gtgt13 AllowPSXObjects true13 CheckCompliance [13 None13 ]13 PDFX1aCheck false13 PDFX3Check false13 PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false13 PDFXNoTrimBoxError true13 PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true13 PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [13 00000013 00000013 00000013 00000013 ]13 PDFXOutputIntentProfile (None)13 PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier ()13 PDFXOutputCondition ()13 PDFXRegistryName ()13 PDFXTrapped False1313 CreateJDFFile false13 Description ltlt13 CHS ltFEFF4f7f75288fd94e9b8bbe5b9a521b5efa7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065876863900275284e8e55464e1a65876863768467e5770b548c62535370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c676562535f00521b5efa768400200050004400460020658768633002gt13 CHT ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 ESP ltFEFF005500740069006c0069006300650020006500730074006100200063006f006e0066006900670075007200610063006900f3006e0020007000610072006100200063007200650061007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f0073002000640065002000410064006f00620065002000500044004600200061006400650063007500610064006f007300200070006100720061002000760069007300750061006c0069007a00610063006900f3006e0020006500200069006d0070007200650073006900f3006e00200064006500200063006f006e006600690061006e007a006100200064006500200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f007300200063006f006d00650072006300690061006c00650073002e002000530065002000700075006500640065006e00200061006200720069007200200064006f00630075006d0065006e0074006f00730020005000440046002000630072006500610064006f007300200063006f006e0020004100630072006f006200610074002c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000200079002000760065007200730069006f006e0065007300200070006f00730074006500720069006f007200650073002egt13 FRA 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 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13

Page 50: Finance Advisory Committee - Arizona LegislatureIHME currently projects that Arizona deaths will peak at 24 a day on April 23 with total deaths of 775 by May 31 – Through April 8,

JLBC 36

Appendix C rsquo20 - rsquo23 Balance Sheet

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ltFEFF4f7f752890194e9b8a2d7f6e5efa7acb7684002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002065874ef69069752865bc666e901a554652d965874ef6768467e5770b548c52175370300260a853ef4ee54f7f75280020004100630072006f0062006100740020548c002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e003000204ee553ca66f49ad87248672c4f86958b555f5df25efa7acb76840020005000440046002065874ef63002gt13 DAN 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 ESP 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 FRA ltFEFF005500740069006c006900730065007a00200063006500730020006f007000740069006f006e00730020006100660069006e00200064006500200063007200e900650072002000640065007300200064006f00630075006d0065006e00740073002000410064006f006200650020005000440046002000700072006f00660065007300730069006f006e006e0065006c007300200066006900610062006c0065007300200070006f007500720020006c0061002000760069007300750061006c00690073006100740069006f006e0020006500740020006c00270069006d007000720065007300730069006f006e002e0020004c0065007300200064006f00630075006d0065006e00740073002000500044004600200063007200e900e90073002000700065007500760065006e0074002000ea0074007200650020006f007500760065007200740073002000640061006e00730020004100630072006f006200610074002c002000610069006e00730069002000710075002700410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e0030002000650074002000760065007200730069006f006e007300200075006c007400e90072006900650075007200650073002egt13 ITA (Utilizzare queste impostazioni per creare documenti Adobe PDF adatti per visualizzare e stampare documenti aziendali in modo affidabile I documenti PDF creati possono essere aperti con Acrobat e Adobe Reader 50 e versioni successive)13 JPN 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 KOR ltFEFFc7740020c124c815c7440020c0acc6a9d558c5ec0020be44c988b2c8c2a40020bb38c11cb97c0020c548c815c801c73cb85c0020bcf4ace00020c778c1c4d558b2940020b3700020ac00c7a50020c801d569d55c002000410064006f0062006500200050004400460020bb38c11cb97c0020c791c131d569b2c8b2e4002e0020c774b807ac8c0020c791c131b41c00200050004400460020bb38c11cb2940020004100630072006f0062006100740020bc0f002000410064006f00620065002000520065006100640065007200200035002e00300020c774c0c1c5d0c11c0020c5f40020c2180020c788c2b5b2c8b2e4002egt13 NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken waarmee zakelijke documenten betrouwbaar kunnen worden weergegeven en afgedrukt De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 50 en hoger)13 NOR 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 SUO 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 SVE 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 ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents suitable for reliable viewing and printing of business documents Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 50 and later)13 gtgt13gtgt setdistillerparams13ltlt13 HWResolution [600 600]13 PageSize [612000 792000]13gtgt setpagedevice13


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