Final Peakoil 2 November 2009

8/6/2019 Final Peakoil 2 November 2009

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01

Maribyrnong City CouncilPrepared by the Institute or Sensible Transport

September 2009

Contingency PlanPeak Oil


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Elliot Fishman

Project Director and Report Editor

Phil HartRisk Management and Oil Industry Analyst

Joe Hurley

Workshop Facilitator and Urban Planning

Ryan Merry

Design and Layout

Contact

Elliot FishmanT: +61 3 9489 7307E: [email protected]: www.sensibletransport.org.auPO Box 273 Faireld VIC 3078

Suggested citation: Fishman E., Hart P., HurleyJ., 2009 Maribyrnong Peak Oil ContingencyPlan, Institute or Sensible Transport, orMaribyrnong City Council, Melbourne.

Institute or Sensible Transport

Peak Oil Contingency Plan Maribyrnong City Council.Prepared by the Institute or Sensible Transport


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1 Executive Summary 01

2. The Project - Maribyrnong City Council Peak Oil Contingency Plan 08

2.1 Introduction 08

2.2 Project Objective 08

2.3 Project Process 09

2.4 About this Report 09

3 Context Peak Oil and Oil Vulnerability 10

3.1 Peak Oil 10

3.2 Responding to Peak Oil Current Examples 13

3.3 Maribyrnong Council and Community Prole 15

4 The Process - Maribyrnong City Council Peak Oil Contingency Planning 18

4.1 Identiying Representative Service Area s 18

4.2 Workshop Scenarios 19

4.3 Risk Assessment Proces s 23

5 Representative Service Area Risk Proles 27

6 Trigger Points 48

7 Themes and Recommendations 51

8 Conclusions 69

Appendix One Condensed Recommendations 70

Appendix Two Council Fuel Use 74

Appendix Three Food Security 76

Reerences 78

Contents

Peak Oil Contingency Plan Maribyrnong City Council.Prepared by the Institute or Sensible Transport


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01

Concern over the uture availability

o oil is increasing. Peak Oildescribes a period o maximum oilproduction. Beyond this point, lessand less oil is available each year.A growing number o petroleumexperts and commentators arearguing that Peak Oil has beenreached or is imminent.

Planning or a uture o less oil,turning around decades o growingconsumption and the policies that

underpin this growth requires theocused attention o government.

Oil is a vital input underpinning many activities perormed by

Council, as well as a necessary ingredient in the everyday lives or

the Maribyrnong community. Rubbish collection, eet vehicles and

sta travel are just a small selection o the essential activities Council

perorms everyday with the aid o oil based uels. The Maribyrnong

community requires oil or essential activities such as the delivery o

ood and personal transport.

Peak Oil Contingency Plan Maribyrnong City Council.Prepared by the Institute or Sensible Transport|

Executive Summary

The aim o Maribyrnongs Peak Oil

Contingency Plan is to maximiseCouncils business continuity abilityin the ace o either a short termsupply crisis or a long term, gradualdepletion in petroleum resources.

Councils operations have beenassessed and a group o tenrepresentative service areas havebeen developed, based in parton their oil use and criticality.Sta within these service areas

were presented with two Peak Oilscenarios. Scenario one involved

a short term disruption, with only

25% o usual uel supply, lastingsix weeks. Scenario two describeda uture in which oil has entereda long term decline. Council sta,through their involvement in aPeak Oil Workshop, run as part othis process, were asked to assessthe threats to their core businesspresented by both scenarios. Inaddition, sta worked togetherto develop responses, as a way o

mitigating or adapting to short andlong term reductions in oil supply.

We should not

cling to crude down

to the last drop we

should leave oilbeore it leaves us.

International Energy

Agency, 2008

01


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Applying a risk management approachThe inormation developed by Council sta during the workshop has been assessed in a mannerconsistent with the Maribyrnong City Councils Risk Management Policy. Consequence ratingshave been applied to each service area under a short term oil supply cut (scenario one).

The consequence table below describes how the ratings 1-5 have been applied.

Consequence Rating Descriptor Consequence Description

1 Insignicant No harm to human health

Service delivery not aected

2 Minor Potential harm to human health

Services impacted but short-termsolutions available

Minor increase in operational costs

3 Moderate Harm to human health

Only non-core services interrupted

25% non-critical sta not available

Signicant increase in operational costs

4 Major Severe harm to human health requiringhospitalisation

Disruption to a core service

No disruption to essential services


Some critical sta not availableMajor increase in operational costs

Major public transport delays

5 Catastrophic Possible or actual human atalities

Core services severely disrupted

Essential services disrupted

Most non-critical sta not available

Critical sta attendance disrupted

Operational costs aect nancial plan,

line o credit requiredMajor public transport ailures

The expectation was that responses to events under scenario one wouldbe managed under the existing Emergency Response Management Plan.

Peak Oil Contingency Plan Maribyrnong City Council.Prepared by the Institute or Sensible Transport 02


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In scenario two, the long term decline, each service area was analysed in terms o itsexposure to Peak Oil. The rating also refects how hard the service area would have towork to meet Councils target to reduce oil consumption by 3% per annum.

The ratings table below describes how the ratings 1 - 5 have been applied to Scenario Two.

Rating Descriptor Consequence Description

1 Insignicant No changes to service delivery modelrequired

2 Minor Only minor changes to servicedelivery model required

Fuel reduction target can be easilymet

3 Moderate The impact on current servicedelivery model is moderate

Service delivery can be adaptedrelatively easily.

Minor increase in operational costs.

4 Major The impact on the current servicedelivery model is very high

Adaptation is possible but will requiresignicant time and resources

Signicant increase inoperational costs

5 Extreme The current service delivery

model is not viable

Unsustainable increase inoperational costs

Scenario 1: Short-term Disruption

Service Area Consequence Rating

Meals on Wheels 5

Waste Management 4Fleet Management 4

Home Care 4

Customer Service and Communications 4

Inormation Technology 4

Maternal and Child Health 3

Inrastructure and Road Maintenance 2

Strategic Planning Transport 2

Strategic Planning Food Security 2



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Trigger points or actionIn order to anticipate oil shortages and/or give the go ahead to enactcontingency measures, a range o triggers have been developed. Factorsthat may provide leading indicators o oil supply reductions (particularly oa short term nature) include:

The current vulnerability o existing supply chains calls or a moderate levelo spending on contingency actions or the delivery o Council services. Theood chain network was ound to be particularly vulnerable to short termcut in oil supply.

Changestothelocaloilsupplychain

Communityangerathighoilprices,sparkingprotests/

strikes(asoccurredintheUnitedKingdomin2000)

Reductionsinglobalsparecapacityandincreasesin

Australias reliance on imported uel - this may indicate an

increasinglylikelihoodofbothashortandlongterm

reduction in oil supply

There will be signicantconsequences or most

service areas under ashort term, signicantcut in oil supplies

The ood chain networkwas ound to beparticularly vulnerable

to short term cut in oilsupply

Scenario 2: Long-term Decline


Waste Management 5


Meals on Wheels 5

Fleet Management 4

Home Care 3






The results demonstrate that there will be signicant consequencesor most service areas under a short term, signicant cut in oil supplies.Moreover, the level o risk associated with a long-term decline o oilsupplies is at least moderate or even major or most representative serviceareas, according to Maribyrnong City Councils assessment matrix. Aconsiderable level o human and nancial resources should thereore beapplied to reducing these risk levels.

The relatively low rating or the two strategic planning areas (transport andood security) is due to the ocus o this report being on Councils internaloperations. There is little doubt transport and ood security are two o the

largest challenges posed by oil depletion and this will be addressed ingreater detail when Council conducts its community peak oil contingencyplan in the uture.


A considerable level ohuman and nancialresources shouldthereore be appliedto reducing these risklevels.


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Emerging ThemesSeveral important themes haveemerged through the developmento this Contingency Plan. The Peak Oil

Workshop in particular highlightedsome key concepts, threats andresponses that were shared bymultiple service areas o Council.

These include:

Sta Travel to WorkAll service areas highlighted Peak Oilas a major threat to how sta travelto work. A signicant proportiono sta currently arrive by car andare thereore highly exposed to oil

supply disruptions.

Community Mobility and AccessMobility within the Maribyrnongcommunity, although slightly lesscar dependent than the Melbourneaverage, is still highly vulnerable tooil supply shortages. The prospect oa short or long-term cut in oil supplywould present a major disruption tocommunity mobility.

Food SecurityThe signicant oil inputs involved in the production and transport o oodis likely to result in higher priced, less plentiul and varied ood supplies.

This will impact negatively on Maribyrnongs vulnerable populations inparticular. The relatively low consequence ratings or ood security in theabove tables refect that it is ostensibly an issue or the general community,rather than Council operations.

Disadvantaged CommunitiesThe availability o cheap and abundant oil supplies have helped providelower priced goods and services. A drying up o inexpensive oil is likely toresult in signicant price rises or many common basics; ood and transport

being among the most obvious. With Maribyrnong being home to someo Victorias most disadvantaged communities, this issue is o signicantconcern. Home Care and Meals on Wheels in particular may experience anincreased demand or their service while at the same time incurring highercosts, or ood and transport.

Dependence on oil based transport is a major vulnerability

All service areas highlightedPeak Oil as a major threat tohow sta travel to work

The prospect o a shortterm cut in oil supplywould present a majordisruption to communitymobility



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Storage and Inventory:Multiple service areas responded to the prospect o a short term oil supplycrisis with the need or the storage o essential goods, such as ood orvulnerable populations and uel or essential services.

Climate ChangeThis report recognises that many o the initiatives intended to respond toPeak Oil are consistent with Councils commitment to respond to climatechange. Increasing the use o walking, cycling and public transport, aswell as the purchase o low emission vehicles, will assist Council meet itstarget o reducing uel consumption by 3% per annum and become carbonneutral by 2015.

New TechnologyTechnology oers a range o opportunities to respond to Peak Oil. Newvehicle technology will enable increased uel eciency o the Council feetand improved communication technology will increase the eectiveness

o sta working rom home. Greater use o the online ormat or Councilresources will reduce the need or both community and sta travel.

Service Delivery Model ChangesCouncil sta rom a variety o service areas responded to the challengeo Peak Oil with recommendations ocused on undamental changesin the way services can be delivered. For instance, in the area o WasteManagement, in order to cut uel consumption, it may be necessary toreduce waste volumes and thereore lower the demand or the service.Practical suggestions rom sta included collecting waste at the end oeach street rather than outside each door and the provision o wormarms/composting acilities to households.

CommunicationA change in price and availability o uel presents important newcommunication challenges or Council. Under scenario one, thecommunication strategy is essentially one o emergency management.Eectively communicating to the community what is happening and whywill be vital, i panic buying and public rustration are to be minimised. Inscenario two (a long term decline in oil production), the communicationtask should ocus on education regarding the uture oil availability andliestyle measures that people can take to reduce dependence on oil andthereore boost community resilience.

A drying up oinexpensive oil is likelyto result in signicantprice rises or manycommon basics

Increasing the use owalking, cycling and

public transport, as wellas the purchase o lowemission vehicles, willassist Council meet itstarget o reducing uelconsumption by 3% perannum and becomecarbon neutral by 2015

Little has been done at agovernment level to planor less oil in the uture



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Key RecommendationsSta Travel to Work:

Introducecarpoolingsoftware

Telecommuting:Developandimplementacomprehensiveseto measures to acilitate sta with applicable roles to work rom home

Encouragesustainabletransportuseamongststaff,beyondcurrentpractices

Introduceappropriatenancialincentivestoencourageashiftawayfromunnecessarycaruse

Collaboratewithothercouncilstoinvestigatesharingofcespace(whenstaffliveclosertoacouncil other than the one they are employed at)

Developvideoconferencingfacilities

Community Mobility and Access:

Increasetheproportionofthebudgetdedicatedtosustainabletransporttoimprove the transport networks ability to encourage oil ecient orms o mobility

IncreaseCouncilsactivitiestoencouragemixedusedevelopment,toreducetraveldistances and increase access by walking, cycling and public transport

AdvocatetoStateandFederalgovernmentforgreaterinvestmentinsustainabletransportmodes

Disadvantaged Communities:

IntroducemeasurestoincreasetheefciencyandreducethetraveldemandsforMeals on Wheels and Home Care. This may include combining services, reducing delivery

requency (such as with the introduction o rozen or long lie meals) and bicycle travel

Improvelowcosttransportopportunities,includingasignicantboosttobicycleinfrastructure,particularly in pockets o disadvantage and link these to public transport and other major destinations

Storage and Inventory:

StocklonglifefoodandotheressentialsforthosedependentonCouncilservices in the event o a short term, severe cut to uel availability

Createafuelstoragefacilitytomaintaincriticalvehicleoperationsinthe event o a short cut in uel supplies.

Communication:

DistributeinformationonPeakOilandconveywhatCouncilisdoingtoadaptits operations and services in preparation or a reduction in uel supplies

Maribyrnong City Councils commitment to comprehensively tackle Peak Oil is prudent, demonstrates oresightand is warranted. Governments that move ahead o the oil depletion curve will create more resilient, liveablecommunities. They will nd themselves less exposed to temporary disruptions in oil supply as well as lessvulnerable to the inevitable long term decline in global oil production. Delaying action until the need is obvious

will not allow sucient time or a smooth transition, putting business continuity and community wellbeing at risk.This Peak Oil Contingency Plan is an important step along the path to a post Peak Oil economy and society.



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The Project - Maribyrnong CityCouncil Peak Oil Contingency Plan

2.1 IntroductionConcern is mounting over the worlds uture oil supply. A number o localgovernments have begun taking introductory measures to assess theirvulnerability to uture oil supply constraints. Maribyrnong is part o thisgroup o progressive councils, having developed a Peak Oil Policy andAction Plan. Maribyrnongs previous commitment to the challenges oPeak Oil include both reducing oil consumption by 3% per annum and thecommissioning o this Peak Oil Contingency Plan.

Oil is a critical ingredient in a wide range o activities perormed by Council,as well as a necessary input into the everyday lives o the people oMaribyrnong. Collecting waste and recycling, delivering meals to vulnerable

populations and sta travel are just a ew o the essential activities Councilperorms everyday with the aid o oil based uels. The wider communityis dependent on oil or such essentials as the delivery o ood andpersonal transport. Yet despite this dependence, little has been done at agovernment level to plan or less oil in the uture.

Further work is requiredto extend the oil savingrecommendationsmade in this report todevelop comprehensiveoperational guidelinesor each service area

Collecting waste andrecycling, deliveringmeals to vulnerablepopulations and statravel are just a ew othe essential activitiesCouncil perorms

everyday with the aid ooil based uels

2.2 Project ObjectivesThe aim o Maribyrnongs Peak Oil Contingency Plan is to maximiseCouncils business continuity ability in the ace o either a short term supplycrisis or a long term, gradual depletion in petroleum resources. The key

objectives o this project are to:

It is important to recognise that while this Plan has signicantly advancedCouncils preparation or uture oil supply disruptions, it is not a detailedblueprint or operations manual or each o Councils service areas. Furtherwork is required to extend the oil saving recommendations made in thisreport to develop comprehensive operational guidelines or each servicearea. These procedural documents would detail precisely how each

response would be implemented into Councils operations.

Reducetheadverseimpactsofhigherfuelprices

and/orsupplylimitationsonCounciloperationsandthe Maribyrnong community

EngagewithCouncilstafftodetermineservicedelivery

objectivesundertwoPeakOilscenarios;ashortterm, signifcant supply disruption and a long term, steady decline

ConductariskassessmentofCouncilsvulnerabilityto

bothPeakOilscenarios,withafocusontenrepresentative

service areas and provide recommendations to mitigateagainst these vulnerabilities

Developtriggerpointsthatcanactaspre-emptive

indicatorsofchangeintheoilsupply/pricesituation



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2.3 Project ProcessThe ollowing key activities were undertaken to meet the project objectives:

1. BackgroundresearchonCouncilandlocalcommunitydemographicsandactivities,withaparticular

ocus on areas o exposure to uel supply issues

2. IdenticationoftenrepresentativeCouncilserviceareas,withreferencetofueluseandcriticalityto

business continuity

3. DevelopmentoftwoPeakOilscenarios,usedtoassistCounciltoidentifyandrespondtothreats

posed by two dierent uel shortage examples

4. PlanningandfacilitationofstaffWorkshoptoenableCouncilstafftodeveloptheirthinkingin

preparation or a uel supply shortage

5. DevelopmentofriskprolestoprovideaclearpictureofthreatsandresponsestobothPeakOil

scenarios

6. PreparationanddeliveryofthenalPeakOilContingencyPlanReporttoCouncil

In partnership with Council, a Steering Committee was established in March 2009 and met three times betweenApril and June 2009. This committee was composed o key Council sta with responsibilities or sustainability,emergency/risk management, transport and feet vehicles. This committee provided essential inormation and keycontacts to develop a detailed picture o Council operations and project direction.

2.4 About This ReportThis report has been prepared by the Institute or Sensible Transport to present the ndings rom the contingencyplanning project. The Executive Summary (1) presents the key ndings and recommendations contained in thisreport. This section (2), outlines the project objectives and process. The next section (3) provides concise contextualmaterial, ocusing on introductory Peak Oil inormation; examples o local government responses to Peak Oil;and key proling inormation on Maribyrnong Council and community. Section 4 presents detail on the projectactivities undertaken, in order to produce the Representative Service Area Risk Proles (5). Section 6 presents adiscussion on the issue o trigger points. Finally, sections 7 and 8 outline the key themes, recommendations andconclusions resulting rom the project.



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1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

[Mbp

erd

ay]

Forecast

Indonesia 1977

India 1995

Gabon 1997

Argentina 1998

Malaysia 1997

Colombia 1999

China

UK 1999

Ecuador 1999

Germany 1967

Austria 1955

Romania 1976

Brazil

Angola

Mexico 2004

Neutral Zone

Vietnam

Thailand

Eq. Guinea

Sudan, Chad

Egypt 1993

Syria 1995

Canada (conv.) 1974

Lower 48, USA 1971

Texas, USA 1971

Alaska 1989

GoM

NGL, USA 2002

Norway 2001

Venezuela 1998/1968

- 3% p.a.Oman 2001

Australia 2000

Denmark 2004

Yemen 2001

Source: Energy Watch Group, 2007

This problem [Peak Oil]is truly rightening. This

problem is like nothing Ihave seen in my lietimeand the more you thinkabout it and the moreyou look at the numbers,the more uneasy anyobserver gets.Hirsch, radio interview (2005)

The problem o peakingo world conventionaloil production is unlikeany yet aced by modernindustrial society(Hirsch et al, 2005, p. 7)

3.1 Peak OilPeak Oil describes the period o maximum global oil production. Beyond

this oil production peak, the world experiences continuing declines in thequantity o oil produced each year.

The United States Department o Energy commissioned a team o riskmanagement experts to assess the threat posed by Peak Oil (Hirsch et al,2005). They concluded the problem o peaking o world conventional oilproduction is unlike any yet aced by modern industrial society(p. 7). Theyound 20 years o intense orward planning is required to negate theeconomic and social impact o reduced oil supply.Hirsch (2005), in a radio interview ollowing the release o the reportcomments:This problem [Peak Oil] is truly rightening. This problem is likenothing I have seen in my lietime and the more you think about it and the

more you look at the numbers, the more uneasy any observer gets..

An increasing number o prominent experts argue that the world hasailed to nd oil in sucient quantities to balance with consumption(Skrewbowski, 2008; Campbell, 2005; Simmons, 2005; Hartmann, 2004; Shah,2004; Leggett, 2005; Strahan, 2007; Klare, 2004; Deeyes, 2005; Heinberg,2006). In act, they argue the world is approaching, or has in act reached,Peak Oil.

Peak oil can occur in a particular country, as it did in the United States in1970 and Australia in 2000/01, as well as or a whole region or indeed theglobe. The graph below shows the countries that have entered and are now

past their peak in oil production (Peak Oil):

Context Peak Oil & Oil Vulnerability

Countries past their peak in oil production



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Major oil companies too arebeginning to express doubtover the capacity o world oilproduction, as highlighted

recently by Shell ChieExecutive, Jeroen van der Veer(25th January 2008):

Ater 2015 supplies oeasy-to-access oil and gaswill no longer keep upwith demand

The International EnergyAgency (IEA) is becomingincreasingly concernedover long term oil supply

limitations, as indicated inthe ollowing extracts(2007):

Despite our years ohigh oil prices, this reportsees increasing markettightness beyond 2010

Oil looks extremely tightin ve years time

An indication o the IEAsconcern and the urgency inwhich they treat this issue isdemonstrated in the ollowing

passage rom Fatih Birol, theagencys Chie Economist (2ndMarch 2008):

We should not cling tocrude down to the last drop we should leave oil beoreit leaves us. That means newapproaches must be oundsoon....The really important

thing is that even though weare not yet running out o oil,we are running out o time.



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The Australian supply situation

Australian oil production peaked in 2000/01 (Geoscience Australia, 2006),resulting in greater dependence on imports oten rom unstable regionso the world.

Some 53% o Australian oil consumption is rom domestic production

(Australian Bureau o Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2008). By 2020,this is expected to drop to 27% (Australian Petroleum Production andExploration Association, 2007).

Source: The Age, 18th April, 2009

Source: Phil Hart and Geoscience Australia

With only about adecade o known oil

resources remaining attodays production rates,Australia is looking downthe barrel o a $25b tradedecit in petroleumproducts by 2015

The Australian Senate (2007,p. 30) highlighted Peak Oilas a signicant national issue,arguing:

...the possibility o apeak o conventional oilproduction beore 2030should be a matter oconcern...In view o the

enormous changes thatwill be needed to moveto a less oil dependentuture, Australia shouldbe planning or it now.

Australias lagging oil production and rising consumption

The Hon Martin Ferguson

AM MP 2008 APPEA Conference,

7th April 2008



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Descending the Oil Peak:Navigating the Transitionfrom Oil and Natural Gas

Report of the City of PortlandPeak Oil Task Force

March 2007

3.2 Responding to Peak Oil -Current ExamplesPeak oil presents complex and conronting challenges or governmentsat all levels. There is a rapidly increasing acceptance o the inevitability oPeak Oil, yet very little rigorous proactive planning to deal with its potentialconsequences. However several progressive governance regions areputting time and resources into proactive response.

Internationally, a number o regions have developed plans in responseto the risk posed by Peak Oil. Most notably, San Francisco, Caliornia hasdeveloped a Peak Oil report developed by the Peak Oil Preparedness TaskForce in 2009. Beore San Francisco, Portland, Oregon produced Descendingthe Oil Peak: Navigating the Transition rom Oil and Natural Gas in 2007.

Maribyrnong City

Council is ahead omost jurisdictionson addressing andminimising theimpacts o Peak Oil

The urgent

implementation omeasures to reduceoil dependence isrequired to createresilience in the aceo lower petroleumproduction

from Oil and Natural Gas

Report of the City of PortlandPeak Oil Task Force

March 2007

These reports ound Peak Oil to present a major challenge to the UnitedStates economy and society. The uture, they ound, is likely to see less, butmore expensive oil, with signicant impacts on councils, communities andbusinesses. Both reports concluded that the urgent implementation omeasures to reduce oil dependence is required to create resilience in the ace

o lower petroleum production.

This report is dierent rom the above two documents in several importantways. Firstly, it is the third major document Maribyrnong has prepared onPeak Oil and thereore contains less introductory and general inormationon Peak Oil. Secondly, it ocuses primarily on Council operations and seeksto minimise the impact Peak Oil may have on Councils ability to conductits core business. Both the San Francisco and Portland documents wereprincipally concerned with generalised community impacts associated withthe peaking o global oil supplies.

City councils are beginning to prepare or less oil



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In Australia, Maribyrnong City Council is ahead o most jurisdictions onaddressing and minimising the impacts o Peak Oil. In 2008, Council adopteda Peak Oil Policywhich seeks to address and minimise the impact o Peak Oilon Council Operations and the Maribyrnong community (p. 2). Subsequently,Maribyrnong City Council developed a more detailed Peak Oil Action Plan

which identied specic areas within Council where urther work was requiredto identiy appropriate response measures. This Peak Oil Contingency Plan isone o those measures identied by the Peak Oil Action Plan.

At the time o writing, no other Victorian municipality has developed adetailed Peak Oil Policy and associated Action Plan. Moreover, through thecommissioning o this report, Maribyrnong has to our knowledge, becomethe rst municipality in Australia to assess its vulnerability to oil supplylimitations and develop measures to boost its resilience to these emergingoil supply challenges specic to representative service areas o Council.

Although Maribyrnong is currently the only Australian municipality tohave developed several major policy documents on Peak Oil, a numbero councils have taken some introductory action, including Brisbane CityCouncil (2007), Cos Harbour City Council (2008) and Darebin City Councilwhich have highlighted it as an issue o signicant concern, as illustrated in

this passage by then Darebin Mayor, Cr Peter Stephenson (2008):Addressing the impact o Peak Oil is crucial not just or our own community

but or the whole world. Our current liestyles are very dependent on petroleum

products - or transport, ood production and many products that we take or

granted. While the world may well be a much better place when we are less

dependent on oil it is how we make the transition that is critical. We need to

plan now to have adequate alternatives in place and to make sure that the

disadvantaged members o society arent the hardest hit.

A number o regionshave developed plansin response to the risk

posed by Peak Oil

CouncilacknowledgesthatPeakOilisaseriousrisktoCouncil and Community

CouncilcommitstotheOilDepletionProtocolwitha

commitment to a 3% reduction in oil use per year in Councilsoperationsstartingfromthe2008/09nancial

year

Councilwillsetatargetof1.5%increaseperyearof

Eco-buypurchasingofgreenproducts

Councilcommitstodevelopanannualactionplanthat

directlyaddressboththelongtermtransition(gradual3%

declineinoilsupplyperyear)andtheoilshocksscenarios

Peak Oil Policy - Key Points:



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3.3 Maribyrnong Council andCommunity ProfleMaribyrnong City Council, like all Australian municipalities is dependenton oil to carry out a wide range o services required by the community.Everything rom rubbish collection, road maintenance, meals on wheels,inormation technology and sta travel are dependent on oil.

Similarly, oil is a vital input into everyday lie in the Maribyrnongcommunity. Oil is relied upon to produce and bring goods to market, orpassenger transport and manuacturing.

Many o the vulnerabilities to oil supply limitations, either at the Counciloperational level or wider community impacts have emerged as keythemes in this report. Multiple areas o Council as well as existing literatureon Peak Oil have identied issues o common concern. These themes andassociated recommendations are explored in Section 7 o the report and

identied below:

StaffTraveltoWork

CommunityMobilityandAccess

FoodSecurity

DisadvantagedCommunities

StorageandInventory

ClimateChange

NewTechnology

ServiceDeliveryModelChange

CommunicationandEducation

Everything rom

rubbish collection, roadmaintenance, mealson wheels, inormationtechnology and statravel are dependenton oil

The developedworld has becomehighly dependent onpetroleum productsand the Maribyrnongcommunity is nodierent

Many o Councils core services

are uel dependent



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The developed world has become highly dependent on petroleumproducts and the Maribyrnong community is no dierent in this regard.Our ood and other products we consume everyday oten travel thousandso kilometres rom where they are produced to the point o purchase.Moreover, petroleum dependent orms o transport are widespread

placing our transport system and habits in a vulnerable position should anydisruption in supply and/or a rapid increase in price occur.

This section provides an introduction to the transport and demographiccontext o Peak Oil or the Maribyrnong community. Many o the issues willbe explored in greater detail in the themes and recommendations sectiono this report particularly Community Mobility and Access, Food Security,and Disadvantaged Communities

The City o Maribyrnong, like other municipalities in Melbourne, is highlycar dependent, with around 65% o all trips to work undertaken in theprivate automobile, almost all o which are completed in single occupantvehicles. Average vehicle occupancy in Melbourne at peak hour is 1.08people per vehicle ( Vicroads, 2009), which highlights part o the currentineciency in the way oil is currently used, as well as the potential to moreeciently use existing vehicle capacity.

The rise in petrol prices over the last our years led urban researchers DrsJago Dodson and Neil Sipe rom Grith University to assess its impact onthe household level. By ocusing on income, car use and ownership as well

as residential mortgages, they have been able to locate areas vulnerable tohigh uel prices. A map o this vulnerability is illustrated below, with darkershades indicating areas o very high vulnerability. Maribyrnong (outlined),as a relatively inner city area, is not among the most vulnerable areasrelative to the outer suburbs, but still ar rom resilient.

Mapping Oil Vulnerability in

Maribyrnong and Melbourne

Source: Adapted rom Dodson & Sipe, 2008.

Transport patternsin Maribyrnong,whilst slightly less oildependent than otherareas o Melbourne arestill highly vulnerable



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Transport patterns in Maribyrnong, whilst slightly less oil dependent thanother areas o Melbourne are still highly vulnerable to each o the scenariosoutlined in the Peak Oil Policy, due to the ollowing reasons:

Peak Oil is likely toimpact most heavilyon those experiencing

socio-economicdisadvantage

Little spare capacity exists on the public transport system during the peak

Limitedsparepublictransportcapacity,particularlyontherail

network at peak times. Even a relatively small shit(in proportional terms) rom car to public transport wouldpush the public transport system beyond its limits.For instance, a 5% reduction in car use towards publictransport in the event o an oil price spike would producearound a 50% increase in public transport patronage (Litman,2009). Currently levels o service provision would be unable toabsorb this increase

AnumberofareaswithinMaribyrnonglackgoodaccessto

public transport, namely the suburbs o Maidstone, Kingsvilleand Maribyrnong

Alackofcontinuous,integratedbicycleslanesandpaths

Disadvantage in theCity o MaribyrnongPeak Oil is likely to impact most heavily on those experiencing socio-economic disadvantage and thiswas a continuous theme threaded throughout Maribyrnongs (2008) Peak Oil Policy. The reason or thisis that many products will experience a signicant price rise, linked to the likely substantial increasesin the price o oil. A more detailed discussion on Peak Oil and its relationship to disadvantage inMaribyrnong is contained within the Disadvantaged Communities theme in Section 8.

For additional Peak Oil background inormation and general impacts on theMaribyrnong community, see the Peak Oil Policy (Maribyrnong City Council, 2008a)



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The Process - Maribyrnong City CouncilPeak Oil Contingency Planning

4.1 Identiying Representative

Service AreasThe scope o this report was limited to a sample o ten representative serviceareas, broadly representing the scope o Council operations.

The ollowing actors were considered in selecting the ten representativeservice areas:

The project team, in conjunction with the Steering Committee, appliedthese actors to Council service areas to determine the ten representativeservice areas to ocus on (see table below). The rst eight represent discreteservices, covering both externally ocused areas (such as Waste Managementand Home Care) and internally ocused services necessary to ensurethe continued unctioning o Council (such as Fleet Management andInormation Technology). The nal two service areas have a broader strategic

ocus. They were selected in recognition o the essential role Council has inproviding strategic planning and special project development on behal othe community, and ocus on the role o Council planning and projects inreducing uture impact o oil supply disruptions on the community.

In order to gainmaximum value romthis report, it is suggestedthe ndings be applied

across Council operationsand eed into otherstrategies and plans

Fueluse:serviceareasthathaveahighfuelusageare

naturally more vulnerable to supply shortages andrising price

Numberofstaffandannualbudgetwereusedtoidentify

services representing a large component o Counciloperations

Criticality :althoughdifculttomeasure,aneffortwas

made to include some o the most critical internaland external services

Representation:acknowledgingtheselectionofonlytenservice areas leaves out many other important components oCouncil, an eort was made to select service areas that providea degree o transerability to other areas o Council. In this way,the key learnings to arise rom this report can be applied to

other service areas, in an eort to broaden Councils responseto Peak Oil. Indeed, in order to gain maximum value rom thisreport, it is suggested the ndings be applied across Counciloperations and eed into other strategies and plans

4



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4.2 Workshop ScenariosThe Workshop An overview

Council sta were grouped according to service area and werepresented with a brie introduction to Peak Oil. Two possible scenarios

were presented, the rst involving a short term oil shortage, in whichonly 25% o the regular uel supply is available or up to six weeks. Thesecond scenario put Council sta in the year 2025, in which there hasbeen a gradual decline in world oil production since 2009, resulting in40% less oil than current consumption. The detail o the scenarios, aspresented in the workshops, is outlined below. Council sta in the tenrepresentative service areas were asked to identiy threats posed byeach o these scenarios to their key responsibilities and whatresponses they could take to become more resilient to oil supplyreductions.

Each group, divided into the ten representative service areas wererequired to:

Council sta developing ideas

at the Peak Oil Workshop

Identifytheirkeyresponsibilities/keyperformance

indicators

Outlinewhatinputstheyrequiretoenablethemtocarryout

theirtasks/responsibilities

Estimatetheirfueluseduringthecourseofaregularweek

DocumentthethreatsposedbybothPeakOilscenarios

to their Council responsibilities and what responses they

could initiated tomitigate against those threats.

Prioritisetwokeythreatsandresponsestoeachscenariofor

their service area


The Ten RepresentativeService Areas

Waste Management

Inrastructure and Road

MaintenanceFleet Management

Meals on Wheels

Home Care

Maternal and Child Health

Customer Service andCommunications

Inormation Technology

Strategic Planning Transport

Strategic Planning Food Security


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The post-workshop phase o the project involved an analysis o the inormationgathered during the workshop and consultation with the Steering Committeeand additional Council sta, to clariy and expand on this inormation. Thiswas then integrated into a risk management ramework to develop riskproles or each service area. These proles enabled the development o

recommendations or action, to provide business continuity based on the twoPeak Oil scenarios that have been modeled. Several key themes have also beenidentied, where similar issues or response measures were recorded acrossmultiple service delivery areas (discussed in Section 7).

Scenario One: Short-term DisruptionIntent

This rst scenario is intended to explore how a disruptive local event o alimited duration could impact the ability o Maribyrnong City Council to

continue the provision o services to the community.Background

Crude oil produced in Bass Strait arrives onshore at Longord in EastGippsland and is then pumped via pipeline to Long Island Point acilityon Westernport Bay near Hastings. Crude oil is then distributed via theWesternport-Altona-Geelong (WAG) pipeline to reneries in Altona andGeelong.

Source: BHP Billiton, 2008

One can envisage a scenario where a disruption at some point in thischain o pipelines and inrastructure stops the fow o stabilised crude oil

rom Long Island Point to the Altona and Geelong reneries. Victorias uelsupplies could be sharply curtailed or an extended period; either until thepipelines and acilities are returned to normal operation or increased directshipments o oil and rened uel products start arriving rom urther aeld.

Trucking uel rom interstate is not practical and would only have limitedimpact. It would take well over a thousand tankers per day to replaceVictorias oil supply, while only a small raction o that number would beavailable. Needing to complete a 1000km round trip, they could only makeone delivery per day which would represent a small raction o total currentuse.



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Such major disruptions are rare, but not unprecedented. Victoria hasalready experienced the Longord Gas Plant explosion in 1998 whichshut down gas supplies or two weeks and the Varanus Island Gas Plantexplosion in Western Australia in 2008 which also had a severe impact. In2005, there was a major explosion and re at the Bunceeld Oil Depot in

the U.K. which has a similar unction to the Long Island Point acility.While major disruptions to oil and petrol supplies have been comparativelyrare in the past, as oil production peaks and inrastructure gets older, thelikelihood and potential impact o disruptions increases. A decline in globaloil production would also result in the worlds rening capacity beingreduced. Australias reneries are small and have relatively high operatingcosts. They could be amongst the rst to close as global oil productiondeclines, urther increasing our exposure to local and internationaldisruptions.

It is not even necessary or inrastructure to ail or there to be a severedisruption. In 2000, the UK experienced a uel crisis with a relatively benigncause. Ater just a ew days o uel price protests and renery blockades,less than 5% o uel was being supplied and 90% o all petrol stations wereempty. Panic buying was widespread and supermarkets were running outo ood and implementing rationing.

Thereore, the detail o this scenario is not important. In a world o decliningoil supplies, a number o plausible local and international scenarios couldlead to a major disruption. A worst case scenario has been chosen, as it iseasier to adapt measures identied to a less severe scenario than the otherway round.

A lack o uel may cut trafc levels

Scenario OneDetailsVictoria is reduced to 25% onormal uel supplies or a periodo six weeks. Panic buying makesthe situation tense and conusedand long queues orm around anyservice station which has supplies.

The State Government has declareda Fuel Emergency, but is strugglingto implement practical steps todirect uel where most needed. Fuelsupplies are being made availableto bus operators and some criticalindustrial/commercial users are

receiving reduced allocations, butretail supplies are chaotic. Someservice stations have been set asidesolely or the provision o uel toemergency services but otherwisethe Government is relying onineective rationing measures.Streets and reeways are relativelyquiet except or the lengthy queueswaiting around service stations.



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Scenario Two: Long-term DeclineIntent

The second scenario is intended to explore how service delivery modelswould be impacted by a steady decline in available oil supplies over an

extended period o time (15 20 years).

Background

While there is debate about the nature and timing o Peak Oil, the worldsoil resources are nite and production and consumption o oil must oneday reach a maximum beore declining over many decades, as illustratedbelow. This resource liecycle o increasing production ollowed by declinehas already been observed in many countries, including the USA and UKshown below.

Some commentators argue that higher prices will promote developmentand application o new technology to increase recovery rom existing eldsand allow exploration and production in new areas. Other analysts arguethat oil discovery peaked more than orty years ago, that existing reservesappear to be overstated in key Organisation o Petroleum ExportingCountries (OPEC) members and that the easy gains in terms o applyingnew technology to increase recovery rom existing elds have already been

achieved (Skrebowski & Hart, 2007). There are a broad range o possibledecline scenarios, rom steep declines o up to 8% per year to moremoderate declines o just 1-2% per year.

This report makes no attempt to resolve the debate over the timing oPeak Oil. Given the growing level o concern about availability o uture oilsupplies, it is prudent to consider how a scenario o declining oil supplieswould aect current service delivery models. Identied contingencymeasures can then be prioritised or action on the basis o their relativecosts and benets. Emissions reduction targets and a desire or greaterenergy security provide independent drivers to prepare or a long-termdecline scenario.

Given the growinglevel o concern aboutavailability o uture oil

supplies, it is prudent toconsider how a scenarioo declining oil supplieswould aect currentservice delivery models

Source data: Energy Inormation Administration (USA).

Scenario TwoDetailsWorld oil production begins todecline rom the reerence nancialyear 2008-09. While the global

decline rate may be more moderate,emerging economies have a greaterdemand or oil, and Australia isorced to reduce its oil consumptionat an average rate o 3% per year.

This is consistent with MaribyrnongCity Councils existing policy toreduce uel use by 3% per annum(Maribyrnong City Council, 2008). Atthis rate, uel use is reduced to 60%o current levels by 2025, just overteen years away.



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4.3 Risk Assessment ProcessUnder scenario one, a short-term, severe disruption to local uel supplies, risks have been assessedin an emergency response and business continuity context. The impact o the scenario on eachservice area has been assessed in a manner consistent with the Maribyrnong City Council Risk

Management Policy, which is based on the Australian Standard 4360 or Risk Management.

The consequence table below describes how the ratings 1-5 have been applied.

Consequence Rating Descriptor Consequence Description

1 Insignicant No harm to human health

Service delivery not aected

2 Minor Potential harm to human health

Services impacted but short-termsolutions available

Minor increase in operational costs

3 Moderate Harm to human health

Only non-core services interrupted


Signicant increase in operationalcosts

4 Major Severe harm to human healthrequiring hospitalisation

Disruption to a core service

No disruption to essential services50% non-critical sta not available

Some critical sta not available

Major increase in operational costs

Major public transport delays

5 Catastrophic Possible or actual human atalities

Core services severely disrupted

Essential services disrupted

Most non-critical sta not available

Critical sta attendance disrupted

Operational costs aect nancialplan, line o credit required

Major public transport ailures

The expectation was that responses to events under scenario one would be managed under theexisting Emergency Response Management Plan.

Under scenario two, a long-term steady decline in oil production, the risks have been assessed interms o their impact on the current delivery model or each service area. The ratings also refecthow hard each service area will have to work to meet the current policy target o a 3% decline per

annum in uel consumption.


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The ratings table below describes how the ratings 1 - 5 have been applied to scenario two.

Rating Descriptor Consequence Description

1 Insignicant No changes to service delivery modelrequired

2 Minor Only minor changes to servicedelivery model required

Fuel reduction target can be easilymet

3 Moderate The impact on current service deliverymodel is moderate

Service delivery can be adaptedrelatively easily.

Minor increase in operational costs.

4 Major The impact on the current service

delivery model is very highAdaptation is possible but will requiresignicant time and resources

Signicant increase in operationalcosts

5 Extreme The current service delivery model isnot viable

Unsustainable increase in operationalcosts

Summary Risk Analysis/AssessmentFor each o the ten representative service areas, the relative consequence ratingsor scenario one and impact ratings or scenario two are summarised in the tables below:

Scenario One: Short-term Disruption


Meals on Wheels 5

Waste Management 4

Fleet Management 4

Home Care 4








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Scenario Two: Long-term Decline


Waste Management 5


Meals on Wheels 5

Fleet Management 4

Home Care 3






A number o key service areas, such Waste Management and Meals on Wheels, are highly vulnerable under bothscenarios.

The assessment shows Inrastructure and Road Maintenance and Maternal and Child Health are able to rideout the short-term disruption (scenario one) with lower consequences or the community. Their services can becurtailed or a short period o time and restored relatively quickly once the situation returns to normal.

In the long-term decline scenario, Home Care, Customer Service and Communications and Inormation Technologywere seen as having a greater ability to adapt. In contrast, Waste Management, Inrastructure Maintenance andMeals on Wheels are seen as much harder to adapt. The current service delivery model or these areas is consideredunsustainable under a scenario o declining oil availability.

The relatively low rating or the two strategic planning areas (transport and ood security) is due to the ocus othis report being on Councils internal operations. There is little doubt transport and ood security are two o thelargest challenges posed by oil depletion and this will be addressed in greater detail when Council conducts itscommunity peak oil contingency plan in the uture. Food security is discussed in Appendix Three.

In scenario planning, it is standard practice not to assign probabilities to any o the scenarios identifed. However,

considering a range o likelihoods or the two scenarios allows these outcomes to be considered in relation to

Maribyrnong City Councils existing risk management ramework.

Risk Assessment Matrix (Risk Levels RL, or CR and LR combinations)


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While scenario one is not almost certain or even likely, it could be consid-ered unlikely rather than rare. Combined with a consequence rating o 5in some service areas, this yields a risk rating o High, which warrants actionand resources to reduce the overall level o risk.

Scenario two could be considered possible, likely or almost certain depend-

ing on whose assessment is taken. Combined with consequence ratings o 5 in

several service areas, this yields a risk rating o High or even Extreme.

The ollowing pages contain the detailed risk proles or each service area,listing specic threats and response measures identied or each o the tenservice areas under both scenarios.

The response tables below also identiy a priority rating o L, M or H (Low,Medium or High). This grades each response in terms o how easily themeasure could be implemented and what level o eectiveness it has interms on boosting resilience to uel shortages.


A considerable level ohuman and nancialresources should be

applied to reducingthese risk levels to amore acceptable level.


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5 Representative Service Area Risk Profles

Service Area: Waste Management Budget:$2,992,470

NumberofEmployees:4(Thisisacontractedserviceactualnumberofemployeesrequiredto carryoutwastemanagementissignicantlyhigher)

Scenario One: Short-term Disruption Risk Assessment

Threat Description Consequence Rating

Severely curtailed service 4

Accumulation and dumping o waste 4

Odour and visual amenity worsen 4

Public health risks increasing 4

Loss o community condence in council ability to maintain order 4

Waste Management Scenario One

Response Measures Priority

Prioritise waste services to direct scarce resources to areas o greatest need H

Reduce requency o collections to minimise uel use H

Centralised collection points to reduce the travel required or waste/recycling collection - such as the end o each residential street

H

Baiting and spraying program to minimise rodent activity and disease L

Deodorising program to reduce noticeable impact o any service/collectionreduction L

Prevention o waste build up M

Community advice and education on the scarce uel situation and theimpact this has on service levels

H

Alternative work arrangements or those sta that do not need to be onsite,to minimise transport task

H

Waste Management Scenario Two: Long-term Decline - Risk Assessment

Threat to Service Delivery Model Consequence RatingCosts o transportation, disposal and processing all increasing 5

Service price or community increases 5

New political drivers not accepted by community (eg pay per weight,reduced packaging)

5

Customer dissatisaction 5



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Service Area:Inrastructure and Road Maintenance Budget:$4,714,552

NumberofEmployees:27

Perormance Indicators

Satisfactionlevelswithroadmaintenanceandrepairsdataavailablefrom

annualcommunitysurveytarget=60%satisfactionlevelperannum

60%ofroadmaintenancerequestsdealtwithintimeframe(targetdate)

ProactiveinspectioninaccordancetoRMP,assetprotectionworkorders

(MaribyrnongCityCouncil,2009)

Inrastructure and Road Maintenance Scenario One: Short-term Disruption - Risk Assessment


Sta unable to travel to work 2

Increasing number o deects leads to higher public risk 2

Maintenance contractors unable to carry out majority o work 2

Inrastructure and Road Maintenance Scenario One

Response Measures PriorityImplement a make-sae strategy. Erect barriers and/or complete temporaryrepairs until uel supply situation enables complete repair

H

Consider increased inventory o critical materials or short-term alternatives H

Develop web portal and other working rom home tools to enable sta toco-ordinate necessary maintenance activities remotely

L

Rationalise feet and develop a multi-unction vehicle able to carry out mostcritical repairs

L

Cross council job-sharing to enable remote sta to support local councilsand vice-versa

M

Inrastructure and Road Maintenance Scenario Two: Long-term Decline - Risk Assessment

Threat to Service Delivery Model Consequence Rating

Road suracing materials become increasingly scarce and expensive 5

Reduced level o service leads to deteriorating inrastructure 5

Limited availability o new materials and resources 5

Lack o expertise in new construction techniques 5

Cant compete in tight market against larger construction companies 5

NB: Trac related deterioration can be expected to decline in rough proportion to changes intrac levels. However, buildings which suer mostly rom environmental and weather relateddegradation mechanisms will continue to deteriorate at current rates.



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Inrastructure and Road Maintenance Scenario Two


Revise Road Management Plan, to develop a new hierarchy o road usepatterns. Allocate some roads specically to cycling/walking and/or light/compact vehicles only

H

Revise Asset Management Plan or buildings and other inrastructure H

Develop new road inspection techniques and use smaller vehicles/motorcycles etc.

H

Promote research and development into new treatment techniques toextend lietime o existing inrastructure and new less oil intensive suracingmaterials

M

Require greater interaction between other authorities (water/gas etc).Activities rom dierent authorities need to be planned together to reduceresuracing requirement. (No longer acceptable to excavate their assets inisolation and expect council to resurace each time).

M

Require greater use o boring/tunnelling techniques or installation o new

services to reduce road resuracing requirements.

M

Shit rom bitumen to concrete or road construction. More time consumingand expensive but longer lietime so less overall resource use.

L

Educate community about why levels o service may change (council costs/rates etc)

H

Manage demand more careully. Restrict heavy vehicles to smaller numbero routes to reduce overall rate o degradation

H

When particular roads have degraded, postpone major repairs by restrictingto lower speeds and local trac only

H

Consider road user charges/user pays to refect increasing cost o road use. L

Consider greater use o Maribyrnong River or heavy/bulk reight to reducewear on roads.

L



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Fleet Management Scenario Two


Reduced the size o feet and use it sparingly H

Purchase uel ecient vehicles H

Diversity uel sources (LPG/Biodiesel/CNG/electric) 5 10 yr uel security H

Early implementation o long term contract or supply o alternative uels(eg/ biodiesel)

H

Policy to employ local sta in order to help ensure they will be able to get towork without oil intensive modes o transport

H

Purchase a feet o scooters/motor bikes and bicycles to provide alternativetransport options

H

Introduce uel eciency requirements in Council tender evaluation criteria H

Provide incentives or sta to minimise the need or car use, such as reeor subsidised yearly public transport passes, ree or subsidised bicycle

purchase or work use

H

Advocacy role to State and Fed Govt to encourage investment in policiesthat increase opportunities to lower uel use

H



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Peak Oil will place increased

pressure on Council to provide

meals to vulernable populations


Meals on Wheels Scenario Two: Long-term Decline - Risk Assessment


Transport resources required to deliver service under the current model arenot sustainable

5

Community anger at declining standard o service and stricter criteria oreligibility

5

Meals on Wheels Scenario Two


Change ramework o service, including:

a) Conduct community education campaign including measures to enhanceindependence

H

b) Reduce meal delivery demand H

c) Introduce communal dining room service L

d) Weekly deliveries (resh, chilled and rozen) less drivers/vehicles required H

e) Consolidation/combining o services or Home Care/Meals on Wheels H

Promote community engagement - neighbours looking out or each other H

Phone in monitoring services when required (client monitoring is currentlydone by Meals on Wheels drivers) to reduce driving

H

Use o local/seasonal produce or meals to reduce costs - change to menusand community expectations

M

Review/redene service and eligibility as ood security becomes anincreasing issue or whole community, expect increased demand or service

H


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Home Care Scenario Two


Group housing/extended amilies to widen the base o community supportand reduce workload on home care services

L

Employ suitable local people to carry out home care duties to those thatlive close by

M

Conduct necessary home care duties by oot, bicycle or public transport H

Conduct volunteer campaigns to boost the number o local volunteers M

Promote active living strengthen training etc...increase resilience toenable greater levels o independence in the community

M

Teach IT to older adults and people with a disability so they may undertakeactivities online that they used to have to travel or

M

Make better use o sustainable transport to get to work H

Promote investment in research and technologies (Robots, Hybrid cars) LPlan rosters based on geography/proximity to reduce transport task H


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Service Area: Maternaland Child Health Budget:$1,073,265



1400consultationspermonth

400immunisationspermonth(MaribyrnongCityCouncil,2009).

Maternal and Child Health Scenario One: Short-term Disruption - Risk Assessment


Sta unable to travel to work 3

Dicult to arrange transport or home visits 3

Families restricted in ability to access service locations 3

Vulnerable amilies acing increased stress 3

Reduced access to vaccines and sterilisation equipment 3

Diculty accessing and supporting CALD (Culturally and LinguisticallyDiverse) amilies

3

Severelycurtailedservice 3

Notes: Council health services are dependent on skilled sta and consequentlytend to have a higher than average proportion o employees travelling long

distances to work.

Maternal and Child Health Scenario One


Reduced work week to reduce travel requirements M

Increase use o bike feets or work related travel H

Introduce car pooling sotware or sta commuting H

Increase the provision o advice by phone and email and video links - accessto interpreter service

H

Prioritise clients to ensure those with the greatest need are seen rst H

Inormation on Council website and hardcopy inormation packs - Use olocal media to reduce the need or clients to make ace-to-ace visits

H

Community education to explain how the current situation changes theservice and what measures they can take to minimise adverse health impacts.Ensure this occurs within culturally and linguistically diverse groups.

H

Increased rerigeration and bulk order o immunisations and ormulas etc H

Maximise the use/eciency o Council owned hybrid cars M


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Service Area: CustomerService and Communications Budget:$1,729,465



ProactivelyissueregularweeklymediareleasesonCouncilprograms

Websiteusagestatistics(110,000permonth)

Providerelevant,uptodateinformationonCouncilservicesandprograms

IncreasedcommunityawarenessofCouncilandcommunityinformationin

itsmostuptodate,reliableform/24hrswebsiteaccesstoCouncilinformation

Customerservicecallstarget60%resolvedatrstpointofcallmonthly

Customerservicecounterenquiriestarget3,500permonth

Customerservicerequestsmonthlystatisticstarget1,400requestspermonth

Phonecontacts6900permonth(MaribyrnongCityCouncil,2009)

Customer Service and Communications Scenario One: Short-term Disruption - Risk Assessment


Some sta unable to travel to work 4

Increased number o inquiries/aults not logged, fow on impact to other

core business activities

4

Increased inormation demand (phone, email, web) 4

Normal ocial payments, process and approvals disrupted (cash fowdisruptions)

4

Reduced number o events and level o community engagement 4


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Customer Service and Communications Scenario One


Consider fexible hours and/or days or appropriate sta to minimisecomplications associated with sta commuting

H

Investigate Cross Council partnerships (eg/ resources, oce access) tominimise the transport task

L

Introduce car pool sotware (organisational) Intranet H

Ensure targeted communications to vulnerable groups is prepared inadvance (services eg. Aged), providing appropriate inormation regardingthe uel shortage and what it means or them

H

Anticipate surge in calls rom community and have measures in place to puton additional sta i required

M

Regular updates - via a range o mediums, including the on hold message(while telephone customers are on hold), website, community centres

(posters via email) and radio (local), Culturally and Linguistically Diversepeer acilitators (call registered contacts in this area to inorm them o themessage)

H

May need to adjust opening hours, possibly lengthen them, so people canarrive outside peak public transport hours

L

Set up other sites as ino hubs, such as at police stations and libraries tohelp ensure everyone in the community has access to inormation

L

Ino sharing network > key contact person in each dept who is responsibleor managing the oil shortage situation

H

Be prepared to reschedule previously arranged events/activities that maybeadversely aected by the uel shortage > prioritise the essential

H

Shit to an online ocus > the community capacity to uptake onlineinormation needs to be enhanced prior to a uel shortage event

M

Avoid isolating the most vulnerable by developing communicationmessages/mediums that are accessible to those without online access, asthese groups have the great need or service but the least capacity to accessonline ino

H

Customer Service and Communications Scenario Two: Long-term Decline - Risk Assessment


Diculty adapting to new service and changing roles (eg online customerservice operator)

3

Declining availability o traditional ormats (mail, newspapers) andrequirement to adapt to greater online ocus (changed ormats, ownership,requency and audience)

3

Changes in sta availability 3

Reduction in ace-to-ace local events and engagement (eg neighbourhoodmeetings moving online, impacts on sense o community and connectedness

3

Changes orced on governance structures (eg large multi-member wardsback to smaller single member wards)

3


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Customer Service and Communications Scenario Two


Online services planning and resourcing (already have drat plan) > cost andtraining (sta and community) > access to technology must be enhanced

so as many people as possible can eectively receive digital inormation,thereby avoid unnecessary travel and resource use

H

Promote remote access to Council, or both sta and the community H

Investigate cross council exchange arrangements, to minimise travelrequirements

H

Inormation planning or uture ormats (online, SMS, newspapers) H

Boost tele/video conerencing and webcasting acilities to enable moremeetings/orums to take place remotely

H

Consider the venue or events > utilise sites on public transport routes, withvery good walking and cycling access

H

Avoid isolating the most vulnerable by developing communicationmessages/mediums that are accessible to those without online access, asthese groups have the great need or service but the least capacity to accessonline ino

H



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Inormation Technology Scenario One


Increase work rom home capacity including increased IT security capability/requirements to enable work rom home situations

H

Investigate licensing upgrades required or more sta working rom home,in a cost eective manner

H

Introduce user riendly car pooling sotware (Intranet) H

Increase stock o consumables to enable business continuity in cases oreduced IT supply delivery

H

Provide/acilitate more online services/support to enable greater remoteaccess to Council (or sta and community)

H

Adjust server capacity to enable greater online access H

Cross Council partnerships to acilitate working rom other oce locationscloser to home

L

Inormation Technology Scenario Two: Long-term Decline - Risk Assessment


Increased demand on IT or provision o services (eg video conerencing) 3

Lead time or supply o products and services increased 3

Increased cost o equipment and supplies 3

Skills shortage unable to cope with changing requirements 3

Forced shit to greater reliance on remote support 3

Inormation Technology Scenario Two


Build team skills to address/consider uture impact in all systemdevelopments

M

Long term planning to be less dependent on IT consumables that haveshort liespan/high oil inputs

M

Cooperate with other Councils to develop industry wide solutions andsupport networks

M

Introduce technology/skills development to reduce demand on ace-to-acesupport H

Electronic capture/storage/retrieval o all orms o data or distribution.Need to shit away rom paper based records management. This will assiststa working rom home to have access to all inormation required to workeectively

H

Video conerencing to enable homes and other remote locations to becomevirtual oces

H

Increase the use o sustainable transport among sta, to reduce reliance onoil dependant transport modes

H


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Service Area: Strategic Planning - Transport Budget:$1,270,963

NumberofEmployees:8


Customerservicerequestresponsetargetof90%withinprescribedtime

IncreasecyclingjourneytoworkABSCensusdata(target3%usage)

Promotetheuseofpublictransport(useofCensusdataasmeasure

23%usagein2011)

Reducenumberoftruckvolumesconductedannually(target95,000orless)

Increaseinannualcyclingcounts(5%increaseperannum)

Trafcmanagementcommunitysoverallsatisfactionlevelfromtheannual

communitysurvey(65%satisfaction)derivedfromMCCAnnualCommunitySurvey

%completedcomponentofthescheduledcapitalworksdesignprogram(reported

quarterlytarget25%completedeveryquarter=accumulatedeachquarter)

Transportplanningadviceprovidedintimelymanner-80%ofreferralsresponded

within15workingdays(MaribyrnongCityCouncil,2009).

Strategic Planning - Transport Scenario One: Short-term Disruption - Risk Assessment


Inadequate public transport or community 2

Buses/trams over capacity 2Fuel queues causing road blockages 2

Sta diculty getting to work 2

Strategic Planning - Transport Scenario One


Car pool/work rom home/alternative transport. Develop communication/IT systems in advanceto enable sta to work rom home

H

Alter rosters to reduce sta travel requirements: work ewer, longer shits, travel to work innon-peak times, take leave

H

Work with Communications unit to develop educational/inormational resources to thecommunity on alternative ways to access daily lie (using non-oil based transport)

H

Develop uel rationing procedure to ensure uel is used sparingly and only by essential servicesthat have little suitable alternative

H

Works Centre Resources required sta to distribute signs inorming residents o specialarrangements (eg alternative transport, rationing.)

L

Work with the Victorian Department o Transport to coordinate transport services M

Develop uel inventory to maintain essential services during uel shortage period L


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Strategic Planning - Transport Scenario Two: Long-term Decline - Risk Assessment


Reduced access to good and services, schools and other activities within thecommunity

3

High demand or new or upgraded inrastructure to deal with alternativetransport modes (cycling, walking and public transport)

3

Change in type and size o vehicles on roads (cyclists and small ecientvehicles vs trucks and buses, less medium and large size passenger vehicles)

3

Reduced income rom parking 3

Strategic planning - Transport Scenario Two


Avoid/reduce hrs/days @ work (fexible hours, working at home, alternative

transport car pool, walk, cycle, public transport)

H

Promote urban planning that reduces the transport task, such as mixed usedevelopment, with services close to people who need them

M

Advocate to State and Commonwealth or signicant improvements to nonoil based transport service provision; reliable, requency and integrated publictransport, as well as boost to walking and cycling inrastructure

H

Review Council Fleet policy to ensure it is in line with Council policy toreduce oil consumption by 3% annually. Consider vehicle engine size, ueltype, and number o vehicles/availability to whom. Consider the inclusion obicycle feet upgrade or short/medium trips

H

Better integration/coordination o feet use to minimise uel consumption HEncourage (and advocate or) the development o more local employmentopportunities to minimise the need or extended travel by residents orcommuting purposes

L

Advocate to State and Commonwealth or metro rail reight M

Advocate to State and Commonwealth or reight logistics and supplyeciency improvements

M

Begin plan or new, local sustainable transport works as part o a long termprogram to radically reduce oil consumption in community

H

Develop priority parking program/policy or bicycles, car sharing and small,

ecient vehicles

H

Network planning road space reallocation to cater or high quality bicycleand walking routes and transit lanes

H

Consider the development o recharge power points or electric vehiclesusing renewable energy

L


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Service Area: Strategic Planning Food Security Budget:$70,000(externallyfunded)

NumberofEmployees:1(P/T)


- Plan to assist communities to have access to healthy ood

- Supportlocalgrowingcommunitygardens,publicedibleplantings

- Supportlocalfooddelivery/purchaseoptions

- Mapfoodoutletsandzonewithinwalkingdistance

- Helpraiseskillsincommunityinfoodpreparationandfoodgrowing

workshopsfacilitiesforfoodprepcommunitykitchens(forisolatedpeople)

- Cae meals vouchers

- Emergencyrelief(InformationprovidedatPeakOilWorkshop,27thApril,2009).

Strategic Planning - Food Security Scenario One: Short-term Disruption - Risk Assessment


Panic buying 2

Disrupted delivery/distribution to shops 2

Residents restricted in ability to purchase ood 2

NB: It is estimated that 66% o people in the community live in a ood desert. Adithama et al (2006) dene ooddesert as areas beyond 500 metres o a ood and vegetable outlet.

Based on experiences in other countries, ood security can become a critical issue very quickly under these types oscenarios.

Strategic Planning - Food Security Scenario One


Develop program or sta to travel via public transport, walking, cycling, car pooling H

Pre-purchase bicycles, tricycles and other non-motorised orms o transport or sta and/or community members to make deliveries to designated collection points or vulnerable

populations rom centralised locations such as the Footscray market

M

Develop maps highlighting locations o ood collection points or vulnerable populations andaddition communication tools to increase community awareness

M

Advocate to Government to prioritise the use o uel or ood delivery into city M

Encourage Council and higher levels o government to boost the existing bicycle network toprioritise oil ree orms o transport/mobility

M

Advocate to the State Government to reduce panic ood buying H

Investigate the distribution o seeds o Asian vegetables or home growing M

Start longer term planning and training or edible gardens - developing skills and potentiallocations

H

Introduce ood producing plants in public places, in advance o short term uel shortage M


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Public ruit trees will increase community ood security


Strategic Planning - Food Security Scenario Two: Long-term Decline - Risk Assessment


Growing gap in access to health/aordable ood or people in Maribyrnong 2

Gradual decline in previous oil based supply model (ertiliser, pesticides,

harvesting and distribution) or all agriculture/ood production

2

Reduced capacity or community to access ood at large shopping centres 2

Reduced availability o international products (especially resh/airtransported produce)

2

Declining viability o major shopping centre precincts that lack good publicand active transport connections

2

Strategic Planning - Food Security Scenario Two


Begin planning ood production/urban orchard areas, utilising existing land,such as around sporting elds/gol courses

H

Integrate ood production considerations into the Planning Scheme withprotected rights to sunlight, soil and water

H

Turn existing/underused car parks and some sections o local streets intopublic/City owned and managed ood gardens

H

Develop governance issues around public/City edible gardens H

Council acilitate a network o backyard-edible gardens seed sources,skills, knowledge, tools, education rainwater/stormwater (planning role)around permaculture non ert./non pesticide based growing, growing

healthy soils and harvesting

H

Council acilitates local ood distribution networks, eg. Market places orpeople to resell excess ood production

H

Encourage commercial market gardeners back into the City - to produce orlocal consumption

H


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Trigger PointsThe identication o trigger points maybe a useul way to anticipate disruptions to oil supplies in advance.Although this is inherently dicult, developing some guiding indicators may help Council give the green-light tomeasures aimed at reducing demand/need or uel.

Scenario One: Short-term DisruptionIn many cases, disruptive scenarios will arrive with little warning. However, it is still possible to identiy severalactors which increase the vulnerability o the local and/or international oil production supply chain. These actorsthereore give some le

Documents

Final Peakoil 2 November 2009