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Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards
Passenger Cars and Light Trucks
Model Years 2017-2025
Final EnvironmentalImpact Statement
July 2012Docket No. NHTSA-2011-0056
Final Environmental Impact Statement Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards
Passenger Cars and Light Trucks Model Years 20172025
RESPONSIBLE AGENCY: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
COOPERATING AGENCY: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
TITLE: Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards, Passenger Cars and Light Trucks, Model Years 20172025, Final Environmental Impact Statement
ABSTRACT: This Final Environmental Impact Statement (Final EIS) analyzes the environmental impacts of a range of alternative fuel economy standards, including a Preferred Alternative, for passenger cars and light trucks (light-duty vehicles) that NHTSA has proposed under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as amended. Environmental impacts analyzed in this Final EIS include those related to fuel and energy use, air quality, and climate change. In developing the proposed Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, NHTSA considered technological feasibility, economic practicability, the effect of other vehicle standards of the Government on fuel economy, and the need of the United States to conserve energy, as required by 49 U.S.C. 32902(f). The proposal is consistent with President Obamas directive to improve the fuel economy of and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from model year 20172025 light-duty vehicles through coordinated federal standards.
TIMING OF AGENCY ACTION: No sooner than 30 days after the EPA publishes a Notice of Availability of this Final EIS in the Federal Register, NHTSA will publish a final rule and Record of Decision. The Record of Decision will state and explain NHTSAs decision and describe NHTSAs consideration of applicable environmental laws and policies.
CONTACT INFORMATION: James MacIsaac National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Office of International Policy, Fuel Economy and
Consumer Programs 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE W43-444 Washington, DC 20590 Telephone: 1-202-366-9108 E-mail: [email protected]
National Highway Traffic Safety AdministrationTelephone: 1-888-327-4236
For TTY: 1-800-424-9153
http://www.nhtsa.gov/fuel-economy
FINAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT
CORPORATE AVERAGE FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS PASSENGER CARS AND LIGHT TRUCKS
MODEL YEARS 20172025
JULY 2012
LEAD AGENCY: NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY
ADMINISTRATION
COOPERATING AGENC Y: U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
i
TableofContentsListofAcronymsandAbbreviations...................................................................................................xiii
Glossary ..........................................................................................................................................xvi
Summary .........................................................................................................................................S1
CHAPTER1 PURPOSEANDNEEDFORTHEPROPOSEDACTION.......................................................11
1.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................111.2 PurposeandNeed.........................................................................................................................131.3 NationalEnvironmentalPolicyActandJointRulemakingProcess...............................................14
1.3.1 BuildingBlocksoftheNationalProgram.........................................................................141.3.2 ProposedAction...............................................................................................................17
1.4 CooperatingAgency....................................................................................................................1101.5 PublicReviewandComment......................................................................................................1101.6 NextStepsintheNationalEnvironmentalPolicyActandJointRulemakingProcess................111CHAPTER2 PROPOSEDACTIONANDALTERNATIVESANDANALYSISMETHODOLOGIES.................21
2.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................212.2 ProposedActionandAlternatives................................................................................................21
2.2.1 UncertaintyOverMarketDrivenImprovementsinFuelEconomy(AnalysesAandB)..222.2.2 UncertaintyinNewVehicleFleetForecast......................................................................242.2.3 DesignationofAnalysesinthisEISBasedonUncertainties............................................262.2.4 Alternative1:NoAction..................................................................................................282.2.5 ActionAlternatives........................................................................................................2102.2.6 NoActionandActionAlternativesinHistoricalPerspective.........................................2152.2.7 LaboratoryTestFuelEconomyversusAdjustedFuelEconomy....................................2162.2.8 EPAsProposedGreenhouseGasEmissionStandards.................................................2172.2.9 AlternativesConsideredbutnotAnalyzedinDetail......................................................218
2.3 StandardssettingandEISMethodologiesandAssumptions.....................................................2182.3.1 VolpeModel...................................................................................................................2192.3.2 VolpeModelInputs........................................................................................................2192.3.3 VolpeModelUpdatesandTheirEffectonElectricityConsumption.............................2242.3.4 ModelingSoftware........................................................................................................2252.3.5 EnergyMarketForecastAssumptions...........................................................................2272.3.6 ApproachtoScientificUncertaintyandIncompleteInformation.................................227
2.4 ResourceAreasAffectedandTypesofEmissions......................................................................2282.4.1 TypesofEmissions.........................................................................................................228
2.5 DirectandIndirectversusCumulativeImpacts..........................................................................2362.6 ComparisonofAlternatives........................................................................................................239
2.6.1 DirectandIndirectImpacts...........................................................................................2392.6.2 CumulativeImpacts.......................................................................................................247
CHAPTER3 ENERGY.......................................................................................................................31
3.1 EnergyIntensityandConsumption...............................................................................................31
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3.2 AffectedEnvironment...................................................................................................................343.2.1 U.S.ProductionandConsumptionofPrimaryFuels........................................................343.2.2 U.S.EnergyConsumptionbySector................................................................................36
3.3 EnvironmentalConsequences....................................................................................................3103.3.1 DirectandIndirectImpacts...........................................................................................3113.3.2 CumulativeImpacts.......................................................................................................316
CHAPTER4 AIRQUALITY................................................................................................................41
4.1 AffectedEnvironment...................................................................................................................414.1.1 RelevantPollutantsandStandards..................................................................................414.1.2 Methodology..................................................................................................................413
4.2 EnvironmentalConsequences....................................................................................................4314.2.1 DirectandIndirectImpacts...........................................................................................4314.2.2 CumulativeImpacts.......................................................................................................496
CHAPTER5 GREENHOUSEGASEMISSIONSANDCLIMATECHANGE................................................51
5.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................525.1.1 UncertaintywithintheIPCCFramework.........................................................................525.1.2 ClimateChangeanditsCauses........................................................................................545.1.3 AnthropogenicSourcesofGreenhouseGases................................................................555.1.4 EvidenceofClimateChange...........................................................................................585.1.5 FutureClimaticTrendsandExpectedImpacts................................................................585.1.6 BlackCarbonandOtherAerosols....................................................................................59
5.2 AffectedEnvironment.................................................................................................................5135.2.1 GreenhouseGasEmissions(HistoricandCurrent)........................................................5135.2.2 ClimateChangeEffects(HistoricandCurrent)..............................................................514
5.3 AnalysisMethodology.................................................................................................................5215.3.1 MethodologyforModelingGreenhouseGasEmissions...............................................5225.3.2 SocialCostofCarbon.....................................................................................................5245.3.3 MethodologyforEstimatingClimateEffects.................................................................5265.3.4 TippingPointsandAbruptClimateChange...................................................................537
5.4 EnvironmentalConsequences....................................................................................................5395.4.1 DirectandIndirectImpacts...........................................................................................5405.4.2 CumulativeImpacts.......................................................................................................597
5.5 Health,Societal,andEnvironmentalImpactsofClimateChange............................................51245.5.1 SectoralImpactsofClimateChange............................................................................51255.5.2 RegionalImpactsofClimateChange...........................................................................5165
5.6 NonclimateCumulativeImpactsofCarbonDioxide................................................................52015.6.1 Background..................................................................................................................52015.6.2 EnvironmentalConsequences.....................................................................................5202
CHAPTER6 LITERATURESYNTHESISOFLIFECYCLEENVIRONMENTALIMPACTSOFCERTAINVEHICLE
MATERIALSANDTECHNOLOGIES.................................................................................61
6.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................616.1.1 PurposeofIncludingaLiteratureSynthesisofLifecycleEnvironmentalImpactsof
CertainVehicleMaterialsandTechnologies...................................................................61
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iii
6.1.2 OverviewofLifecycleAssessmentintheVehicleContext.............................................626.1.3 ScopeofLiteratureSynthesisofLifecycleEnvironmentalImpactsofCertainVehicle
MaterialsandTechnologies.............................................................................................666.2 EmergingMaterialsandTechnologies..........................................................................................67
6.2.1 MassReductionbyMaterialSubstitution.......................................................................686.2.2 ElectricVehicles.............................................................................................................616
6.3 Conclusions.................................................................................................................................629CHAPTER7 OTHERIMPACTS..........................................................................................................71
7.1 LandUseandDevelopment..........................................................................................................717.1.1 AffectedEnvironment......................................................................................................717.1.2 EnvironmentalConsequences.........................................................................................71
7.2 HazardousMaterialsandRegulatedWastes................................................................................727.2.1 AffectedEnvironment......................................................................................................727.2.2 EnvironmentalConsequences.........................................................................................73
7.3 HistoricandCulturalResources....................................................................................................767.3.1 AffectedEnvironment......................................................................................................767.3.2 EnvironmentalConsequences.........................................................................................76
7.4 Noise.............................................................................................................................................777.4.1 AffectedEnvironment......................................................................................................777.4.2 EnvironmentalConsequences.........................................................................................77
7.5 SafetyImpactstoHumanHealth..................................................................................................787.6 EnvironmentalJustice...................................................................................................................78
7.6.1 AffectedEnvironment......................................................................................................797.6.2 EnvironmentalConsequences.......................................................................................710
7.7 UnavoidableAdverseImpacts....................................................................................................7117.8 ShorttermUsesandLongtermProductivity.............................................................................7127.9 IrreversibleandIrretrievableCommitmentofResources.....712CHAPTER8 MITIGATION................................................................................................................81
8.1 OverviewofImpacts.....................................................................................................................818.2 MitigationMeasures.....................................................................................................................828.3 Conclusion.....................................................................................................................................84CHAPTER9 RESPONSESTOPUBLICCOMMENTS.............................................................................91
9.1 PurposeandNeed.........................................................................................................................949.1.1 PurposeandNeedStatement..........................................................................................949.1.2 StatutoryInterpretation..................................................................................................94
9.2 ProposedActionandAlternatives................................................................................................969.2.1 ProposedAction...............................................................................................................969.2.2 NoActionandActionAlternatives...................................................................................989.2.3 VolpeModel...................................................................................................................930
9.3 EnvironmentalImpacts...............................................................................................................9509.3.1 AirQuality......................................................................................................................9509.3.2 Climate...........................................................................................................................9609.3.3 LifecycleAssessment....................................................................................................988
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9.4 OtherImpacts.............................................................................................................................9949.4.1 NationalSecurityImpacts..............................................................................................9949.4.2 EconomicImpacts..........................................................................................................9989.4.3 BiologicalResourceImpacts..........................................................................................9999.4.4 SafetyImpacts..............................................................................................................9103
CHAPTER10 REFERENCES..............................................................................................................101
CHAPTER11 INDEX........................................................................................................................111
CHAPTER12 DISTRIBUTIONLIST....................................................................................................121
12.1 FederalAgencies.........................................................................................................................12112.2 StateandLocalGovernmentOrganizations...............................................................................12512.3 ElectedOfficials...........................................................................................................................12612.4 NativeAmericanTribes...............................................................................................................12812.5 Stakeholders.............................................................................................................................1224CHAPTER13 PREPARERS/REVIEWERS............................................................................................131
13.1 UnitedStatesDepartmentofTransportation.............................................................................13113.2 ConsultantTeam.........................................................................................................................132
AppendicesAppendixA U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckResultsReportedSeparately.....................................A1
AppendixB AirQualityNonAttainmentAreaResults...........................................................................B1
AppendixC SourcesIdentifiedinPublicComments..............................................................................C1
AppendixD LifecycleAssessmentStudies............................................................................................D1
AppendixE AirQualityModelingandHealthImpactsAssessment.......................................................E1
AppendixF DraftJointTechnicalSupportDocument............................................................................F1
AppendixG NHTSAPreliminaryRegulatoryImpactAnalysis................................................................G1
AppendixH AlternateGridMixCaseCriteriaPollutantandHealthResults..H1
ListofTablesTableS1 EstimatedAverageRequiredandAchievedFleetwideFuelEconomy(mpg)
forCombinedU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyModelYearandAlternativeundereachAnalysis................................................................................S7
Table2.2.41 EstimatedU.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckAverageFleetwideFuelEconomybyModelYearundertheNoActionAlternative.......................................29
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Table2.2.51 EstimatedU.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckAverageFleetwideFuelEconomybyModelYearunderAlternative2.........................................................211
Table2.2.52 EstimatedU.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckAverageFleetwideFuelEconomybyModelYearunderthePreferredAlternative.....................................213
Table2.2.53 EstimatedU.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckAverageFleetwideFuelEconomybyModelYearunderAlternative4.........................................................214
Table2.2.71 ChangeinSalesweightedCAFELaboratoryTestMPGandEPAAdjustedMPG.........................................................................................................................217
Table2.2.81 ProjectedU.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFleetwideEmissionsComplianceTargetsundertheProposedCO2Standards........................................218
Table2.2.82 ProjectedU.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFleetwideAchievedCO2equivalentEmissionsLevelsundertheProposedCO2Standards...........................218
Table2.3.21 TechnologiesConsideredbytheVolpeModelthatManufacturersCanAddtotheirVehicleModelsandPlatformstoImproveFuelEconomy..................221
Table2.3.22 Forecasts,Assumptions,andParametersUsedtoAnalyzeImpactsofRegulatoryAlternatives...........................................................................................223
Table2.3.23 SocialCostofCO2,2017..........................................................................................223
Table2.3.41 InventoryofFinalEISModelingSoftware...............................................................225
Table2.4.11 RangeofPredictedChangeinElectricPowerSectorEmissionsBetween2010and2035(eightemissonsrelatedsidecases),AEO2011..............................234
Table2.4.12 ElectricityGenerationMix(Gwh)byFuelSource,fortheBaseandAlternateGridMixCases.........................................................................................................235
Table2.4.13 UpstreamEmissionsFactorsforElectricalPowerGenerationfortheBaseandAlternateGridMixCases.........................................................................................235
Table2.6.11A DirectandIndirectImpacts,AnalysesA1andA2....................................................241
Table2.6.11B DirectandIndirectImpacts,AnalysesB1andB2....................................................244
Table2.6.21C CumulativeImpacts,AnalysesC1andC2................................................................248
Table3.3.11A1 FuelConsumptionandFuelSavingsbyAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisA1.................................312
Table3.3.11A2 FuelConsumptionandFuelSavingsbyAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisA2.................................312
Table3.3.11B1 FuelConsumptionandFuelSavingsbyAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisB1.................................312
Table3.3.11B2 FuelConsumptionandFuelSavingsbyAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisB2.................................313
Table3.3.21C1 FuelConsumptionandFuelSavingsbyAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisC1.................................317
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Table3.3.21C2 FuelConsumptionandFuelSavingsbyAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisC2.................................317
Table4.1.11 NationalAmbientAirQualityStandards...................................................................43
Table4.1.21 NonattainmentAreasforOzoneandPM2.5............................................................418
Table4.1.22 HumanHealthandWelfareEffectsofPM2.5...........................................................424
Table4.1.23 BenefitpertonValuesDerivedforPMrelatedMortalityandMorbidity,AdjustedtoReflectDOTsValueofStatisticalLife.........................427
Table4.1.24 ValuationMetricsforMortalityandMorbidityEndpoints.....................................428
Table4.1.25 IncidencepertonValuesforHealthOutcomes.....................................................430
Table4.2.11A1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1..........................................................................433
Table4.2.11A2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2..........................................................................434
Table4.2.11B1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................................435
Table4.2.11B2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................................436
Table4.2.12A1 NationwideChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1...........................................................446
Table4.2.12A2 NationwideChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2...........................................................447
Table4.2.12B1 NationwideChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................448
Table4.2.12B2 NationwideChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................449
Table4.2.13A1 CriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisA1.............454
Table4.2.13A2 CriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisA2.............455
Table4.2.13B1 CriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisB1.............455
Table4.2.13B2 CriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisB2.............456
Table4.2.14A1 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1..................................................................457
Table4.2.14A2 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2..................................................................458
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Table4.2.14B1 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1..................................................................459
Table4.2.14B2 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2..................................................................460
Table4.2.15A1 NationwideChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1...................................................470
Table4.2.15A2 NationwideChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2...................................................471
Table4.2.15B1 NationwideChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1...................................................472
Table4.2.15B2 NationwideChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2...................................................473
Table4.2.16A1 ChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisA1...............................................................................................................478
Table4.2.16A2 ChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisA2...............................................................................................................479
Table4.2.16B1 ChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisB1...............................................................................................................480
Table4.2.16B2 ChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisB2...............................................................................................................481
Table4.2.17A1 NationwideChangesinHealthOutcomesfromCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1,Base
GridMixandAlternateGridMix.............................................................................482
Table4.2.17A2 NationwideChangesinHealthOutcomesfromCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2,Base
GridMixandAlternateGridMix.............................................................................483
Table4.2.17B1 NationwideChangesinHealthOutcomesfromCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1,Base
GridMixandAlternateGridMix.............................................................................484
Table4.2.17B2 NationwideChangesinHealthOutcomesfromCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2,Base
GridMixandAlternateGridMix.............................................................................485
Table4.2.18A1 NationwideMonetizedHealthBenefitsfromCriteriaPollutantEmissions fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1,Base GridMixandAlternateGridMix.............................................................................487
Table4.2.18A2 NationwideMonetizedHealthBenefitsfromCriteriaPollutantEmissions fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2,Base
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GridMixandAlternateGridMix.............................................................................488
Table4.2.18B1 NationwideMonetizedHealthBenefitsfromCriteriaPollutantEmissions fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1,Base GridMixandAlternateGridMix.............................................................................489
Table4.2.18B2 NationwideMonetizedHealthBenefitsfromCriteriaPollutantEmissions fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2,Base GridMixandAlternateGridMix............................................................................490
Table4.2.21C1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1..................................................................497
Table4.2.21C2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2..................................................................498
Table4.2.22C1 NationwideChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1.................................................4104
Table4.2.22C2 NationwideChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2.................................................4105
Table4.2.23C1 CriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisC1...........4108
Table4.2.23C2 CriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisC2...........4108
Table4.2.24C1 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1................................................................4109
Table4.2.24C2 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2................................................................4110
Table4.2.25C1 NationwideChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1.................................................4116
Table4.2.25C2 NationwideChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2.................................................4117
Table4.2.26C1 ChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisC1.............................................................................................................4120
Table4.2.26C2 ChangesinToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucks,MaximumChangesbyNonattainmentAreaandAlternative,AnalysisC2.............................................................................................................4121
Table4.2.27C1 NationwideChangesinHealthOutcomesfromCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1,Base
GridMixandAlternateGridMix...........................................................................4122
Table4.2.27C2 NationwideChangesinHealthOutcomesfromCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2,Base
GridMixandAlternateGridMix...........................................................................4123
Table4.2.28C1 NationwideMonetizedHealthBenefitsfromCriteriaPollutantEmissions
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fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1,Base GridMixandAlternateGridMix...........................................................................4124
Table4.2.28C2 NationwideMonetizedHealthBenefitsfromCriteriaPollutantEmissions fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2,Base GridMixandAlternateGridMix...........................................................................4125
Table5.1.11 StandardTermsUsedtoDefineLevelsofConfidence..............................................53
Table5.1.12 StandardTermsUsedtoDefinetheLikelihoodofAnOccurrenceofaClimaterelatedEvent................................................................................................53
Table5.3.21 SocialCostofCarbon,20122050...........................................................................526
Table5.4.11A1 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisA1..................................541
Table5.4.11A2 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisA2..................................541
Table5.4.11B1 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisB1..................................542
Table5.4.11B2 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisB2..................................543
Table5.4.12A1 EmissionsofGreenhouseGasesfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1...........................................................................................549
Table5.4.12A2 EmissionsofGreenhouseGasesfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2...........................................................................................550
Table5.4.12B1 EmissionsofGreenhouseGasesfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................................................551
Table5.4.12B2 EmissionsofGreenhouseGasesfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................................................552
Table5.4.13 ComparisonofGHGEmissionsImpactsbetween20172025CAFEStandardsandRegionalInitiatives...........................................................................................561
Table5.4.14A1 ReducedMonetizedDamagesofClimateChangeforeachRegulatoryAlternative,NetPresentValuein2012ofGHGEmissionReductionsbetween2017and2050,AnalysisA1.....................................................................................562
Table5.4.14A2 ReducedMonetizedDamagesofClimateChangeforeachRegulatoryAlternative,NetPresentValuein2012ofGHGEmissionReductionsbetween2017and2050,AnalysisA2.....................................................................................562
Table5.4.14B1 ReducedMonetizedDamagesofClimateChangeforeachRegulatoryAlternative,NetPresentValuein2012ofGHGEmissionReductionsbetween2017and2050,AnalysisB1.....................................................................................563
Table5.4.14B2 ReducedMonetizedDamagesofClimateChangeforeachRegulatoryAlternative,NetPresentValuein2012ofGHGEmissionReductionsbetween2017and2050,AnalysisB2.....................................................................................563
Table5.4.15 ComparisonofMAGICCModelingResultsandReportedIPCCResults..................564
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Table5.4.16A1 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,andSealevelRiseUsingMAGICCbyAlternative,AnalysisA1......................................564
Table5.4.16A2 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,andSealevelRiseUsingMAGICCbyAlternative,AnalysisA2.......................................565
Table5.4.16B1 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,andSealevelRiseUsingMAGICC,AnalysisB1..............................................................565
Table5.4.16B2 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,andSealevelRiseUsingMAGICCbyAlternative,AnalysisB2.......................................566
Table5.4.17 SummaryofRegionalChangestoWarmingandSeasonalTemperaturesExtractedfromtheIPCCFourthAssessmentReport..............................................583
Table5.4.18 GlobalMeanPrecipitationIncrease........................................................................586
Table5.4.19A1 GlobalMeanPrecipitation(percentIncrease)BasedonGCAMReferenceScenarioUsingIncreasesinGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureSimulatedbyMAGICC,byAlternative,AnalysisA1..................................................................586
Table5.4.19A2 GlobalMeanPrecipitation(percentIncrease)BasedonGCAMReferenceScenarioUsingIncreasesinGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureSimulatedbyMAGICC,byAlternative,AnalysisA2..................................................................587
Table5.4.19B1 GlobalMeanPrecipitation(percentIncrease)BasedonGCAMReferenceScenarioUsingIncreasesinGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureSimulatedbyMAGICC,byAlternative,AnalysisB1..................................................................588
Table5.4.19B2 GlobalMeanPrecipitation(percentIncrease)BasedonGCAMReferenceScenarioUsingIncreasesinGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureSimulatedbyMAGICC,byAlternative,AnalysisB2..................................................................589
Table5.4.110 SummaryofRegionalChangestoPrecipitationExtractedfromtheIPCCFourthAssessmentReport......................................................................................590
Table5.4.111A1 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreases,andSealevelRiseforVaryingClimateSensitivitiesforSelectedAlternatives,AnalysisA1...............................................................................................................593
Table5.4.111A2 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreases,andSealevelRiseforVaryingClimateSensitivitiesforSelectedAlternatives,AnalysisA2...............................................................................................................594
Table5.4.111B1 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreases,andSealevelRiseforVaryingClimateSensitivitiesforSelectedAlternatives,AnalysisB1...............................................................................................................595
Table5.4.111B2 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreases,andSealevelRiseforVaryingClimateSensitivitiesforSelectedAlternatives,AnalysisB2...............................................................................................................596
Table5.4.21C1 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisC1...............................................................................................................598
Table5.4.21C2 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisC2...............................................................................................................598
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Table5.4.22C1 EmissionsofGreenhouseGases,AnalysisC1........................................................5102
Table5.4.22C2 EmissionsofGreenhouseGases,AnalysisC2........................................................5103
Table5.4.23C1 ReducedMonetizedDamagesofClimateChangeforeachActionAlternativeNetPresentValuein2012ofGHGEmissionReductionsbetween2017and2050,AnalysisC1...................................................................................................5103
Table5.4.23C2 ReducedMonetizedDamagesofClimateChangeforeachActionAlternativeNetPresentValuein2012ofGHGEmissionReductionsbetween2017and2050,AnalysisC2...................................................................................................5104
Table5.4.24C1 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,andSealevelRiseUsingMAGICCbyAlternative,AnalysisC1.....................................5105
Table5.4.24C2 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,andSealevelRiseUsingMAGICCbyAlternative,AnalysisC2.....................................5105
Table5.4.25C1 GlobalMeanPrecipitation(percentIncrease)BasedonGCAM6.0ScenarioUsingIncreasesinGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureSimulatedbyMAGICC,AnalysisC1.............................................................................................................5115
Table5.4.25C2 GlobalMeanPrecipitation(percentIncrease)BasedonGCAM6.0ScenarioUsingIncreasesinGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureSimulatedbyMAGICC,AnalysisC2.............................................................................................................5116
Table5.4.26C1 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreases,andSealevelRiseforVaryingClimateSensitivitiesforSelectedAlternatives,AnalysisC1.............................................................................................................5117
Table5.4.26C2 CO2Concentrations,GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreases,andSealevelRiseforVaryingClimateSensitivitiesforSelectedAlternatives,AnalysisC2.............................................................................................................5120
Table5.5.21 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheNortheast..........................5168
Table5.5.22 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheSoutheast..........................5175
Table5.5.23 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheMidwest............................5179
Table5.5.24 ProjectedtrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheGreatPlains.......................5182
Table5.5.25 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheSouthwest.........................5185
Table5.5.26 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheNorthwest.........................5189
Table5.5.27 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesforAlaska......................................5194
Table5.5.28 ProjectedTrendsinEnvironmentalVariablesfortheIslands...............................5197
Table6.1.31 KeyElementsTrackedintheLiteratureSynthesis....................................................67
Table6.2.21 ComparisonofVehicleLifecycleEnergyandGHGEmissions................................622
Table6.2.22 SensitivityofLifecycleGHGImpactsAssociatedwithBEVsfromSamarasandMeisterling(2008)............................................................................................623
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ListofFiguresFigureS1 U.S.EnergyConsumptionbySector,2010..............................................................S10
FigureS2 U.S.PetroleumConsumptionbySector,2010........................................................S11
FigureS3A1 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyAlternative,AnalysisA1........S13
FigureS3A2 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyAlternative,AnalysisA2........S14
FigureS3B1 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyAlternative,AnalysisB1........S15
FigureS3B2 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyAlternative,AnalysisB2........S16
FigureS3C1 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyAlternative,AnalysisC1........S17
FigureS3C2 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyAlternative,AnalysisC2........S18
FigureS4A1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA1............................................................S22
FigureS4A2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA2............................................................S23
FigureS4B1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisB1............................................................S24
FigureS4B2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisB2............................................................S25
FigureS5A1 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA1............................................................S26
FigureS5A2 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA2............................................................S27
FigureS5B1 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisB1............................................................S28
FigureS5B2 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisB2............................................................S29
FigureS4C1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC1............................................................S31
FigureS4C2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC2............................................................S31
FigureS5C1 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC1............................................................S33
FigureS5C2 NationwideToxicAirPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC2............................................................S34
FigureS6 TheGreenhouseEffect............................................................................................S35
FigureS7 ContributionofTransportationtoU.S.CO2EmissionsandProportionAttributablebyMode,2010....................................................................................S37
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FigureS8A1 ProjectedAnnualCO2Emissions(MMTCO2)fromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1..................................................................S39
FigureS8A2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2...........................................................................................S40
FigureS8B1 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................................................S41
FigureS8B2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................................................S42
FigureS9A1 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA1...........................................................................................S44
FigureS9A2 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA2...........................................................................................S45
FigureS9B1 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................................................S46
FigureS9B2 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................................................S47
FigureS8C1 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC1...........................................................................................S48
FigureS8C2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisC2...........................................................................................S49
FigureS9C1 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC1...........................................................................................S50
FigureS9C2 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC2...........................................................................................S51
Figure2.2.61 HistoricalandProjectedAchievedFuelEconomyforPassengerCarsandLightTrucks.......................................................................................................215
Figure2.2.71 19752011SalesweightedCAFELaboratoryTestMPGandEPAAdjustedMPG..........................................................................................................217
Figure2.51 RepresentationsforAnalysesA1,A2,B1,andB2undertheNoActionAlternativeandActionAlternatives........................................................................236
Figure2.52A RepresentationofDirectandIndirectImpactsforAnalysesA1andA2.................237
Figure2.52B RepresentationofDirectandIndirectImpactsforAnalysesB1andB2.................238
Figure2.53 RepresentationsofCumulativeImpacts,AnalysesC1andC2................................239
Figure3.11 EnergyIntensityandRealPriceofOilandNaturalGas,19492010........................32
Figure3.2.11 U.S.EnergyProductionandConsumptionbySourcein2009andProjectedin2035(excludingimpactsofProposedAction).......................................................35
Figure3.2.21 U.S.EnergyFlowsin2009.........................................................................................37
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Figure3.2.22 U.S.EnergyConsumptionbyEndUseSectorandSourceFuelProjectedin2035(excludingimpactsoftheProposedAction)...................................................38
Figure3.2.23 Consumption,Production,andNetImportsofPetroleumandOtherLiquidFuels,19492009....................................................................................................310
Figure3.3.11A1 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyActionAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisA1...............................................................................................................313
Figure3.3.11A2 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyActionAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisA2...............................................................................................................314
Figure3.3.11B1 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyActionAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisB1...............................................................................................................315
Figure3.3.11B2 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyActionAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisB2...............................................................................................................316
Figure3.3.21C1 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyActionAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisC1...............................................................................................................318
Figure3.3.21C2 U.S.PassengerCarandLightTruckFuelSavingsbyActionAlternative(billiongasolinegallonequivalenttotalforcalendaryears20172060),AnalysisC2...............................................................................................................319
Figure4.1.11 VehicleMilesTraveledComparedtoVehicleEmissions.........................................411
Figure4.2.11A1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA1...................................................437
Figure4.2.11A2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA2...................................................438
Figure4.2.11B1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengarCarsandLightTrucksfor2040Alternative,AnalysisB1........................................................439
Figure4.2.11B2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengarCarsandLightTrucksfor2040Alternative,AnalysisB2........................................................440
Figure4.2.12A1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisA1........................441
Figure4.2.12A2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisA2........................442
Figure4.2.12B1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisB1........................443
Figure4.2.12B2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisB2........................444
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Figure4.2.13A1 (a)(e).NationwidePercentageChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA1.............................................450
Figure4.2.13A2 (a)(e).NationwidePercentageChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA2.............................................451
Figure4.2.13B1 (a)(e).NationwidePercentageChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB1.............................................452
Figure4.2.13B2 (a)(e).NationwidePercentageChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB2.............................................453
Figure4.2.14A1 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA1...................................................461
Figure4.2.14A2 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisA2...................................................462
Figure4.2.14B1 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisB1...................................................463
Figure4.2.14B2 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisB2...................................................464
Figure4.2.15A1 NationwideToxicsPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisA1........................466
Figure4.2.15A2 NationwideToxicsPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisA2........................467
Figure4.2.15B1 NationwideToxicsPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisB1........................468
Figure4.2.15B2 NationwideToxicsPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisB2........................469
Figure4.2.16A1 (a)(f).NationwidePercentageChangesinToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA1.............................................474
Figure4.2.16A2 (a)(f).NationwidePercentageChangesinToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA2.............................................475
Figure4.2.16B1 (a)(f).NationwidePercentageChangesinToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB1.............................................476
Figure4.2.16B2 (a)(f).NationwidePercentageChangesinToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB2.............................................477
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Figure4.2.21C1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC1...................................................499
Figure4.2.21C2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC2.................................................4100
Figure4.2.22C1 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisC1......................4101
Figure4.2.22C2 NationwideCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisC2......................4102
Figure4.2.23C1 (a)(e).NationwidePercentageChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC1............................................4106
Figure4.2.23C2 (a)(e).NationwidePercentageChangesinCriteriaPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC2............................................4107
Figure4.2.24C1 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC1.................................................4112
Figure4.2.24C2 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksfor2040byAlternative,AnalysisC2.................................................4113
Figure4.2.25C1 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisC1......................4114
Figure4.2.25C2 NationwideToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksunderthePreferredAlternativebyYear,AnalysisC2......................4115
Figure4.2.26C1 (a)(f).NationwidePercentageChangesinToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC1............................................4118
Figure4.2.26C2 (a)(f).NationwidePercentageChangesinToxicPollutantEmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyActionAlternativein2040ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC2............................................4119
Figure5.1.21 ChangesinTemperature,SeaLevel,andNorthernHemisphereSnowCover..........54
Figure5.1.22 TheGreenhouseEffect..............................................................................................55
Figure5.1.31 ContributionofTransportationtoU.S.CO2EmissionsandProportionAttributablebyMode,2010......................................................................................57
Figure5.31 CascadeofUncertaintyinClimateChangeSimulations.........................................522
Figure5.4.11A1 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisA1..................................541
Figure5.4.11A2 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisA2..................................542
Figure5.4.11B1 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisB1.................................543
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Figure5.4.11B2 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLight Trucksfrom2017through2100byAlternative,AnalysisB2..................................544
Figure5.4.12A1 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA1...........................................................................................545
Figure5.4.12A2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisA2...........................................................................................546
Figure5.4.12B1 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................................................547
Figure5.4.12B2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................................................548
Figure5.4.13A1 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternativeComparedto17%below2005Levels,AnalysisA1..............553
Figure5.4.13A2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternativeComparedto17%below2005Levels,AnalysisA2..............554
Figure5.4.13B1 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternativeComparedto17%below2005Levels,AnalysisB1..............555
Figure5.4.13B2 ProjectedAnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksbyAlternativeComparedto17%below2005Levels,AnalysisB2.........................556
Figure5.4.14A1 NumberofU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksEquivalenttoCO2Reductionsin2025ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA1................................557
Figure5.4.14A2 NumberofU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksEquivalenttoCO2Reductionsin2025ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA2................................558
Figure5.4.14B1 NumberofU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksEquivalenttoCO2Reductionsin2025ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB1.................................559
Figure5.4.14B2 NumberofU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksEquivalenttoCO2Reductionsin2025ComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB2.................................560
Figure5.4.15A1 AtmosphericCO2ConcentrationsbyAlternative,AnalysisA1................................567
Figure5.4.15A2 AtmosphericCO2ConcentrationsbyAlternative,AnalysisA2................................568
Figure5.4.15B1 AtmosphericCO2ConcentrationsbyAlternative,AnalysisB1................................569
Figure5.4.15B2 AtmosphericCO2ConcentrationsbyAlternative,AnalysisB2................................570
Figure5.4.16A1 ReductioninAtmosphericCO2ConcentrationsComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA1...........................................................................................571
Figure5.4.16A2 ReductioninAtmosphericCO2ConcentrationsComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA2...........................................................................................572
Figure5.4.16B1 AtmosphericReductioninCO2ConcentrationsComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB1...........................................................................................573
Figure5.4.16B2 AtmosphericReductioninCO2ConcentrationsComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB2...........................................................................................574
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Figure5.4.17A1 GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreasebyAlternative,AnalysisA1...............575
Figure5.4.17A2 GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreasebyAlternative,AnalysisA2...............576
Figure5.4.17B1 GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreasebyAlternative,AnalysisB1...............577
Figure5.4.17B2 GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncreasebyAlternative,AnalysisB2...............578
Figure5.4.18A1 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA1...............................................................................579
Figure5.4.18A2 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisA2...............................................................................580
Figure5.4.18B1 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB1...............................................................................581
Figure5.4.18B2 ReductioninGlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisB2...............................................................................582
Figure5.4.21C1 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfrom2017through2100by Alternative,AnalysisC1...........................................................................................598
Figure5.4.21C2 CO2EmissionsandEmissionReductionsfrom2017through2100by Alternative,AnalysisC2...........................................................................................599
Figure5.4.22C1 AnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksundertheProposedAction,AnalysisC1..........................................................................5100
Figure5.4.22C2 AnnualCO2EmissionsfromU.S.PassengerCarsandLightTrucksundertheProposedAction,AnalysisC2..........................................................................5101
Figure5.4.23C1 AtmosphericCO2Concentrations(ppm)byAlternative,AnalysisC1...................5107
Figure5.4.23C2 AtmosphericCO2Concentrations(ppm)byAlternative,AnalysisC2...................5108
Figure5.4.24C1 AtmosphericCO2Concentrations(ppm)(ReductionComparedtotheNoActionAlternative),AnalysisC1............................................................................5109
Figure5.4.24C2 AtmosphericCO2Concentrations(ppm)(ReductionComparedtotheNoActionAlternative),AnalysisC2............................................................................5110
Figure5.4.25C1 GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,AnalysisC1....................................5111
Figure5.4.25C2 GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatureIncrease,AnalysisC2....................................5112
Figure5.4.26C1 ReductioninGlobalMeanTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC1.........................................................................................5113
Figure5.4.26C2 ReductioninGlobalMeanTemperatureComparedtotheNoActionAlternative,AnalysisC2.........................................................................................5114
Figure5.5.11 TheThreeLowestLayersinEarthsAtmosphereandtheLocationoftheOzoneLayer...........................................................................................................5162
Figure5.5.21 ObservedandProjectedAverageStreamflowoftheQuinaultRiver,Washington...........................................................................................................5190
Figure5.5.22 ObservedandProjectedPrecipitationChangesinCaribbeanIslands(19002100)..........................................................................................................5198
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Figure6.1.21 VehicleLifeCycle.......................................................................................................63
Figure6.2.21 U.S.ElectricPowerIndustryNetGenerationbyFuel,2010....................................620
xx
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
Toensureamorereaderfriendlydocument,theNationalHighwayTrafficSafetyAdministrationhasendeavoredtolimittheuseofacronymsandabbreviationsinthisEnvironmentalImpactStatement.However,thisisacomplexdocument,andtheuseofacronymsandabbreviationsisunavoidable,particularlyintablesandfigures.Thislistofacronymsandabbreviationsdefinesthoseusedinthetextofthemaindocument.Tablefootnotesdefineacronymsandabbreviationsusedtherein.Acronymsandabbreviationsinfiguresaredefinedsomewhereinthefiguresorjustbelowthem. C degreesCelsiusF degreesFahrenheitg/m3 microgramspercubicmeterAEO AnnualEnergyOutlookAER AnnualEnergyReviewAMO AtlanticMultidecadalOscillationAMOC AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculationAOGCM atmosphericoceangeneralcirculationmodelBACT BestAvailableControlTechnologyBiW BodyinWhiteBTU BritishthermalunitCAA CleanAirActCAFE CorporateAverageFuelEconomyCARB CaliforniaAirResourcesBoardCBD CenterforBiologicalDiversityCEQ CouncilonEnvironmentalQualityCFR CodeofFederalRegulationsCH4 methaneCMAQ CongestionMitigationandAirQualityImprovementCO carbonmonoxideCO2 carbondioxideCO2e carbondioxideequivalentCOI costofillnessCRC ConsultingResourcesCorporationDICE DynamicIntegratedClimateandEconomymodelDOD U.S.DepartmentofDefenseDOE U.S.DepartmentofEnergyDOT U.S.DepartmentofTransportationDPM dieselparticulatematterEDF EnvironmentalDefenseFundEEI EdisonElectricInstituteEIA EnergyInformationAdministrationEIS EnvironmentalImpactStatementEISA EnergyIndependenceandSecurityAct
AcronymsandAbbreviations
xxi
EO ExecutiveOrderEPA U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyEPCA EnergyPolicyandConservationActEV electricvehicleFHWA FederalHighwayAdministrationFR FederalRegisterFTA FederalTransitAdministrationFUND ClimateFrameworkforUncertainty,Negotiation,andDistributionmodelGCAM GlobalChangeAssessmentModelGCM generalcirculationmodelGDP grossdomesticproductGHG greenhousegasGIS geographicinformationsystemgpm gallonspermileGREET GreenhouseGases,RegulatedEmissions,andEnergyUseinTransportationGWP globalwarmingpotentialHD heavyduty;mediumandheavydutyHEV hybridelectricvehicleHFC hydrofluorocarbonHHS U.S.DepartmentofHealthandHumanServicesIARC InternationalAgencyforResearchonCancerICCT InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportationICV internalcombustionvehicleIEO InternationalEnergyOutlookIGSM IntegratedGlobalSystemModelIPCC IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeIRIS IntegratedRiskInformationSystemISO InternationalOrganizationforStandardizationLCA lifecycleassessmentLiion lithiumionMAGICC ModelforAssessmentofGreenhouseGasinducedClimateChangeMECA ManufacturersofEmissionControlsAssociationMERGE ModelforEvaluatingRegionalandGlobalEffectsMDOT MichiganDepartmentofTransportationMMTCO2 millionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideMMTCO2e millionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalentMOC MeridionalOverturningCirculationMOVES MotorVehicleEmissionSimulator(EPA)MOVES2010a 2010MotorVehicleEmissionSimulator(EPA)mpg milespergallonmph milesperhourMSAT mobilesourceairtoxicMY modelyear
AcronymsandAbbreviations
xxii
N2O nitrousoxideNAAQS NationalAmbientAirQualityStandardsNAS NationalAcademyofSciencesNEI NationalEmissionsInventoryNEMS NatinalEnergyModelingSystemNEPA NationalEnvironmentalPolicyActNESHAP NationalEmissionsStandardsforHazardousAirPollutantsNHTSA NationalHighwayTrafficSafetyAdministrationNiMH nickelmetalhydrideNO nitricoxideNO2 nitrogendioxideNOAA NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrationNOx nitrogenoxidesNPRM NoticeofProposedRulemakingNRC NationalResearchCouncilNRDC NaturalResourcesDefenseCouncilNVH noise,vibration,andharshnessPAGE PolicyAnalysisfortheGreenhouseEffectmodelPAH polycyclicaromatichydrocarbonPEF petroleumequivalencefactorPETM PaleoceneEocenethermalmaximumPFC perfluorocarbonPHEV pluginhybridelectricvehiclePOM polycyclicorganicmatterPM particulatematterPM10 particulatematter,10micronsdiameterorlessPM2.5 particulatematter,2.5micronsdiameterorlessppm partspermillionPSD PreventionofSignificantDeteriorationRCP RepresentativeConcentrationPathwayRFS RenewableFuelStandardRFS2 RenewableFuelStandard2RGGI RegionalGreenhouseGasInitiativeRIA RegulatoryImpactAnalysisSAP SynthesisandAssessmentProductSCC socialcostofcarbonSF6 sulfurhexafluorideSIP StateImplementationPlanSOx sulfuroxidesSO2 sulfurdioxideSRES SpecialReportonEmissionScenariosTS&D Transportation,Storage,andDistributionTSD TechnicalSupportDocument
AcronymsandAbbreviations
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UCS UnionofConcernedScientistsU.S.C. UnitedStatesCodeUNEP UnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgrammeUNFCCC UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeVMT vehiclemilestraveledVOC volatileorganiccompoundVSL valueofstatisticallifeWCI WesternClimateInitiativeWGI WorkGroupI,IPCCWMO WorldMeteorologicalOrganizationWTP willingnesstopay
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GlossaryTohelpreadersmorefullyunderstandthisEIS,thisGlossaryincludesdefinitionsfortechnicalandscientificterms,andplainEnglishtermsuseddifferentlyinthecontextoftheEIS.ItalicizedtermsindefinitionsindicatetermsalsoincludedinthisGlossary.
Term Definition
Adaptation AsusedinthisEIS,initiativesandmeasurestoreducethevulnerabilityofnaturalandhumansystemsfromactualorexpectedeffectsofclimatechangeeffects.Therearevarioustypesofadaptation,includinganticipatoryandreactive,privateandpublic,andautonomousandplanned.
Albedo SurfacesonEarthreflectsolarradiationbacktospace.Thereflectivecharacteristic,knownasalbedo,indicatestheproportionofincomingsolarradiationthatthesurfacereflects.Highalbedohasacoolingeffectbecausethesurfacereflectsratherthanabsorbsmostsolarradiation.
Anthropogenic Resultingfromorproducedbyhumans.
Attainmentarea RegionwhereconcentrationsofcriteriapollutantsdonotexceedlimitsestablishedunderNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards.
Batteryelectricvehicle(BEV)
Typeofelectricvehiclethatiscompletelyelectricallypoweredanddoesnotincorporateaninternalcombustionengine.
Benthic Describinghabitatororganismsoccurringatthebottomofabodyofwater.
Biofuel Liquidfuelsandblendingcomponentsproducedfrombiomassfeedstocks,usedprimarilyfortransportation.
Biomass Organicnonfossilmaterialofbiologicalorigin(materialfromliving,orrecentlylivingorganisms)constitutingarenewableenergysource.Asanenergysource,biomasscaneitherbeuseddirectly,orconvertedintootherenergyproductssuchasbiofuel.Directbiomassfuelcanbeusedtogenerateelectricitywithsteamturbinesandgasifiersorproduceheat,usuallybydirectcombustion.Examplesincludeforestresidues(suchasdeadtrees,branchesandtreestumps),yardclippings,woodchips,andevenmunicipalsolidwaste.Convertedbiomassincludesplantoranimalmatterconvertedintofibersorotherindustrialchemicals,includingbiofuels.Biomasscanbegrownfromnumeroustypesofplants,includingmiscanthus,switchgrass,hemp,corn,poplar,willow,sorghum,sugarcane,andavarietyoftreespecies,rangingfromeucalyptustooilpalm(palmoil).
Biosphere ThepartoftheEarthsystemcomprisingallecosystemsandlivingorganisms,intheatmosphere,onland(terrestrialbiosphere),orintheoceans(marinebiosphere).
Blackcarbon Operationallydefinedaerosolspeciesbasedonmeasurementoflightabsorptionandchemicalreactivityand/orthermalstability;consistsofsoot,charcoal,and/orpossiblelightabsorbingrefractoryorganicmatter.
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Term Definition
Carbonfixation Thisistheprocessbywhichinorganiccarbon(typicallyCO2)isusedinanorganiccompound.AnexampleistheuptakeofCO2byplantsduringtheprocessofphotosynthesis.
Carbonsequestration Theactorprocessofincreasingcarbonstorageofareservoir(otherthantheatmosphere).
Carbonsink Anyprocess,activity,ormechanismthatremovesagreenhousegas,anaerosol,oraprecursorofagreenhousegasoraerosolfromtheatmosphere.
Climatefeedback Aninteractionmechanismbetweenprocessesintheclimatesystemiscalledaclimatefeedback,whentheresultofaninitialprocesstriggerschangesinasecondprocessthatinturninfluencestheinitialone.Apositivefeedbackintensifiestheoriginalprocess,andanegativefeedbackreducesit.
Criteriapollutants AirpollutantsforwhichEPAhasestablishedNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards.UndertheCleanAirAct,asamended,EPAhasestablishedNationalAmbientAirQualityStandardsforsixrelativelycommonplacepollutants(carbonmonoxide,airbornelead,nitrogendioxide,ozone,sulfurdioxide,andfineparticulatematter;thesearethecriteriapollutants)thatcanaccumulateintheatmosphereasaresultofnormallevelsofhumanactivity.
Cryosphere TheportionofEarthssurfacefrozenwater,suchassnow,permafrost,floatingice,andglaciers.
Cumulativeimpacts theimpactontheenvironmentwhichresultsfromtheincrementalimpactoftheactionwhenaddedtootherpast,present,andreasonablyforeseeablefutureactionsregardlessofwhatagency(FederalornonFederal)orpersonundertakessuchotheractions.40CFR1508.7
Directimpacts Effectscausedbytheactionandoccuratthesametimeandplace.40CFR1508.8.
Downstreamemissions
Emissionsreleasedfromavehiclewhileitisinoperation,parked,orbeingrefueled,andconsistingoftailpipeexhaust,evaporativeemissionsofvolatileorganiccompoundsfromthevehiclesfuelstorageanddeliverysystem,andparticulatesgeneratedbybrakeandtirewear.
Ecosystem Asystemoflivingorganismsinteractingwitheachotherandtheirphysicalenvironment.Theboundariesofwhatcouldbecalledanecosystemaresomewhatarbitrary,dependingonthefocusofinterestorstudy.Therefore,theextentofanecosystemcanrangefromverysmallspatialscalesto,ultimately,allofEarth.
Electricvehicle(EV) Avehiclethatusesbatterytechnologiestoprovidepower,thereforereducingoreveneliminatingliquidfuelconsumptionduringvehicleoperation.Thetermelectricvehiclecoversarangeofdifferentvehicletypes,includingbatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs),hybridelectricvehicles(HEVs),andpluginhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs).
Glossary
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Term Definition
ElNioSouthernOscillation(ENSO)
ThetermElNiowasinitiallyusedtodescribeawarmwatercurrentthatperiodicallyflowsalongthecoastofEcuadorandPeru,disruptingthelocalfishery.IthassincebecomeidentifiedwithabasinwidewarmingofthetropicalPacificeastoftheinternationaldateline.ThisoceaniceventisassociatedwithafluctuationofaglobalscaletropicalandsubtropicalsurfacepressurepatterncalledtheSouthernOscillation.This,coupledatmosphereoceanphenomenon,withpreferredtimescalesof2toapproximately7years,iscollectivelyknownasElNioSouthernOscillation,orENSO.DuringanENSOevent,theprevailingtradewindsweaken,reducingupwellingandalteringoceancurrentssuchthattheseasurfacetemperatureswarm,furtherweakeningthetradewinds.
Emissionrate Rateatwhichcontaminantsaredischargedfromaparticularsource,usuallyinweightunitpertimeperiod.
Energyintensity Thesumofallenergysuppliedtoaneconomydividedbyitsreal(inflationadjusted)GrossDomesticProduct(GDP).EnergyintensitymeasurestheefficiencyatwhichenergyisconvertedtoGDP;ahighvalueindicatesaninefficientconversionofenergytoGDPandalowervalueindicatesamoreefficientconversion.
Eutrophication Theprocessbywhichabodyofwater(oftenshallow)becomesrichindissolvednutrients,likephosphorusandnitrogen.Sourcesforthesenutrientstypicallyincludeagriculturalfertilizersandsewage.
Evapotranspiration ThecombinedprocessofwaterevaporationfromEarthssurfaceandtranspirationfromvegetation.
Fossilfuel Fuelsformedbynaturalprocessessuchasanaerobic(intheabsenceofoxygen)decompositionofburieddeadorganisms.Theageoftheorganismsresultinginfossilfuelsistypicallymillionsofyears,andsometimesexceeds650millionyears.Fossilfuels,whichcontaincarbon,includecoal,petroleum,andnaturalgas.
Globalwarmingpotential(GWP)
Arelativemeasureofhowmuchheatagreenhousegastrapsintheatmosphere.ItcomparestheamountofheattrappedbyacertainmassofthegasinquestiontotheamountofheattrappedbyasimilarmassofCO2.GWPiscalculatedoveraspecifictimeinterval,commonly20,100,or500years.GWPisexpressedasafactorofCO2(whoseGWPisstandardizedto1).Forexample,the100yearGWPofmethaneaccordingtoIPCCsSecondAssessmentReportis21,whichmeansthatifthesamemassofmethaneandCO2wereintroducedintotheatmosphere,thatmethanewouldtrap21timesmoreheatthantheCO2overthenext100years.
Glossary
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Term Definition
Greenhousegas(GHG) Greenhousegasesarethosegaseousconstituentsoftheatmosphere,bothnaturalandanthropogenic,thatabsorbandemitradiationatspecificwavelengthswithinthespectrumofinfraredradiationemittedbyEarthssurface,theatmosphere,andclouds.Thispropertycausesthegreenhouseeffect.Watervapor(H2O),CO2,nitrousoxide(N2O),methane(CH4),andozone(O3)aretheprimaryGHGsinEarthsatmosphere.Moreover,thereareanumberofentirelyhumanmadeGHGsintheatmosphere,suchasthehalocarbonsandotherchlorineandbrominecontainingsubstances.
GREETmodel ModeldevelopedbyArgonneNationalLaboratorythatprovidesestimatesofenergyuseandemissionsassociatedwithvehicleandfuelsystems.GREETcalculatesconsumptionoftotalenergy,fossilfuels,petroleum,coalandnaturalgas,emissionsofCO2equivalentgreenhousegases,andemissionsofcriteriapollutants.GREETisusedinthisEISanalysistomodelupstreamemissions.
GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)
Thetotalmarketvalueofallthegoodsandservicesproducedinaneconomyatagiventime.
Hybridelectricvehicle(HEV)
Typeofelectricvehiclethatincorporatesabatteryandelectricmotorsystemcoupledwithaninternalcombustionengine.
Hydrosphere Thecomponentoftheclimatesystemcomprisingliquidsurfaceandsubterraneanwater,suchasoceans,seas,rivers,freshwaterlakes,andundergroundwater.
Indirectimpacts Effectsthatarecausedbytheactionandarelaterintimeorfartherremovedindistance,butarestillreasonablyforeseeable.40CFR1508.8
Lifecycleassessment(LCA)
Ananalyticalmethodbasedonasystemsperspectiveusedtoevaluatetheenvironmentalimpactsofmaterials,products,processes,orsystemsthroughouttheirlifecycles.
Massreduction Massreductionreducesfuelconsumptionbydecreasingvehiclemasswhilemaintainingthesamevehiclesize.
MOVESmodel TheMotorVehicleEmissionSimulator(MOVES),developedbyEPA'sOfficeofTransportationandAirQuality,isamodelingsystemthatestimatesemissionsofcriteriapollutantsandtoxicairpollutantsforonroadmobilesources.MOVEScurrentlyestimatesemissionsfromcars,trucks,andmotorcycles,andisusedinthisEISanalysistomodeldownstreamemissions.
NEPAscopingprocess Anearlyandopenprocessfordeterminingthescopeofissuestobeaddressedandforidentifyingthesignificantissuesrelatedtoaproposedaction.
Nonattainmentarea RegionwhereconcentrationsofcriteriapollutantsexceedfederallimitsNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards.NonattainmentareasarerequiredtodevelopandimplementplanstocomplywiththeNationalAmbientAirQualityStandardswithinspecifiedperiods.
Glossary
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Term Definition
Oceanacidification AdecreaseinthepHofseawaterduetotheuptakeofanthropogeniccarbondioxide.
Paleoclimatology ThestudyofclimatechangethroughthephysicalevidenceleftonEarthofhistoricalglobalclimatechange(priortothewidespreadavailabilityofrecordstotemperature,precipitation,andotherdata).
Permafrost Ground(soilorrockandincludediceandorganicmaterial)thatremainsatorbelowzerodegreesCelsiusforatleast2consecutiveyears.
Phenology Thestudyofnaturalphenomenainbiologicalsystemsthatrecurperiodically(developmentstages,migration)andtheirrelationshiptoclimateandseasonalchanges.
Pluginhybridelectricvehicle(PHEV)
Ahybridvehiclewithalargecapacityrechargeablebatterythatcanberechargedbypluggingintotheelectricalgridaswellasusingtheonboardchargingcapabilitiesofnormalhybrids(e.g.,regenerativebraking).Justlikeanormalhybridvehicle,apluginhybridalsoutilizesaninternalcombustionengineasabackupwhenbatterylifeisdepleted.
Photosyntheticnitrogenefficiency
Theamountofcarbonintheplantthatisconvertedtousablesugarsduringphotosynthesis.WithgreateratmosphericCO2,theamountofcarbonconvertedtosugarsisgreaterevenwhentheamountofnitrogenavailabletotheplantdoesnotchange.
Phototoxicity Anabnormaladversereactionofaplanttoultravioletradiationduringwhichatoxiccompoundinaplantcanbeproducedorenhanced.ThiscanbeexacerbatedbyenvironmentalpollutantsorincreasingUVradiation.
Primaryfuels Energysourcesconsumedintheinitialproductionofenergy.PrimaryfuelsusedintheUnitedStatesincludenuclearpower,hydropower,coal,naturalgas,andcrudeoil(convertedtopetroleumandotherliquidfuelsforconsumption).
Radiativeforcing MeasureofhowaclimaticfactorsuchasaGHGaffectstheenergybalanceoftheEarthatmospheresystem.ApositiveforcingtendstowarmtheEarthssurfacewhileanegativeforcingtendstocoolit.
Reboundeffect Aeffectwherebyimprovedfueleconomyreducesthefuelcostofdrivingandleadstoadditionaluseofpassengercarsandlighttrucks.
Quads InthisEIS,quadrillionBritishthermalunits.
Socialcostofcarbon(SCC)
Anestimateofthemonetizedclimaterelateddamagesassociatedwithanincrementalincreaseinannualcarbonemissions;theestimatedpriceofthedamagescausedbyeachtonofCO2releasedintotheatmosphere.
Survivalrate InthecontextofthisEIS,theproportionofvehiclesoriginallyproducedduringamodelyearexpectedtoremaininserviceattheagetheywillhavereachedduringeachsubsequentyear.
Stratification Thelayeringofwarmer,lessdensewaterovercolder,denserwater.
Technologies InthecontextofthisEIS,enginetechnologies,transmission,vehicle,electrification/accessory,andhybridtechnologiesthataffectfueleconomy.
Glossary
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Term Definition
Tippingpoint Apointintheclimatesystematwhichisthereisastrongandamplifyingpositivefeedbackfromonlyamoderateadditionalchangeinadriver,suchasCO2ortemperatureincrease.
Toxicairpollutants Toxicairpollutants,alsoknownashazardousairpollutants,arethosepollutantsthatareknownorsuspectedtocausecancerorotherserioushealtheffects,suchasreproductiveeffectsorbirthdefects,oradverseenvironmentaleffects.EPAhasidentified188substancesastoxicairpollutants.
Trackwidth Thelateraldistancebetweenthecenterlinesofthebasetiresatground.
Transpiration Waterlossfromplantleaves.
Upstreamemissions Emissionsassociatedwithcrudepetroleumextractionandtransportation,andwiththerefining,storage,anddistributionoftransportationfuels.
UrbanHeatislandeffect
Phenomenonofconsistentlyhigherambienttemperaturesinmetropolitanregionscomparedtothesurroundingruralareas.Metropolitanregionshavemodifiedthelandsurfaceswithmaterials(e.g.,pavement)thatabsorbsolarenergy,therebyretainingheatwithinthelocalizedarea.