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6.1 ChangeTheoneconstantthingaboutourlandscapeisthatitwillchangeChange in the landscape is an inevitable process, driven by climate, ecology and human activity.Althoughitisnotpossibletostopchange,itissometimespossibletoguidechangesinourlandscapeforthepurposesofimprovingitormaintainingvaluableaspects.TheGallowayGlensissubjecttoarangeoflandscape‘forcesforchange’,varyingfromglobaltolocalinfluences.Theseareclassedeitheras‘direct’or‘indirect’asaresultoftheactivitiesofhumansandalsonaturalprocessesasthelandscapedevelopsovertime.

6.2 ClimateMan’s influence on global climatewill affect the area, the principal effect ofwhich is likely to beincreased flooding as global temperatures rise and increase rainfall and affect sea levels. Theperiodicwinterfloodsseentodaywill increaseinseverityandfrequency,tothepointwheresomeareas of landwill regularly flood andbecomemoredifficult to use for current purposes.Warmerclimateswillalsochange theagriculturalemphasisofcrops to thosewithwarmer,wetterclimatictolerances. Increasingawarenessof climate change issueswill result inmitigationmeasuresbeingtaken, both in terms of physical flood defences or relocation of activities, but also in increasedpressure for renewable energy developments such as windfarms or advances in hydro-electricpowergeneration.Potentialimpactsspecificallyinclude:

• Wetterweatherchanginghydrologyandwaterlogging/dryingofsoils,anderosional/floodingpatternsofwatercourses

• Temperature changes (warmer/colder overall ormore fluctuating) changing the zoning ofhabitatsandtherangesofdifferentspecies

• Windier weather changing tree growth and accelerating loss of older trees such as fieldboundarytrees

6.3 EcologyPotentialecologicalchangesthatwillaffecttheGallowayGlensareainclude:

• Changes in woodland structure/habitats including dominant tree species and thereforesupportedspecies,lossofancientwoodlands

• Invasivespeciesfromotherareas• TreediseasessuchasPhytophthoraramorumandashdiebackleadingtolossofkeyspecies

inthelandscape• Potentialacidificationofwatercoursesduetoincreasingforestplantationsinthecatchment

area,airpollutionorsea-saltepisodesassociatedwithclimatechange.• Changeinspeciesandhabitatsfoundlocallyduetoclimatechange.

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6.4 ChangeinHumanpopulation,behaviourandactivity

Thelocalpopulationpeakedin1850buttherelatively small change for the area sincemasks a much bigger urbanisationmovement of people from rural areas tolarger settlements. Other potential forcesfor change regarding the local populationare:

• Projecteddeclineinlocalpopulationby2050.• Projectedincreaseinproportionofpopulationover65yearsold.Communitiesbecomingunsustainable.• Change in local population dynamic

reduces support for heritageinterpretationprojects, preferring todissuadevisitorsfromthearea.

Balmaghie Church Hall, currently for salealong with Balmaghie Church, was built inthe 1980s. It is striking that at that time itwas deemed necessary to build a hall to

supportachurchwhichnow,only30yearslater,isforsaleduetodwindlingcongregations.Thiswillinpartbeduetolowerlevelsofchurchattendanceinthelocalpopulationbut isaalsoasignofareducedruralpopulationandillustratesthesometimesrapidchangesthatcantakeplaceovertime.Thehumanpopulationisdirectlyrelatedtotheeconomyoftheareaandifthelocaleconomyweretodrasticallyimproveorworsenthenthatwillleadtoanumberofimpactsonthelandscape,bothdirectlyasaresultoftheeconomicactivitiesbutalsoinsupportingthose,e.g.higherlevelsofhouseconstructionetc.6.5 TransportTransport infrastructure is likely to continue to grow across the area, and will have to cater forincreasingly mobile populations. Local considerations include recent petitions to reopen theDumfriestoStranraerrailwaylineandtheproposaltoturntheA75intoadualcarriageway.Theseareexamplesofprojectsthat,whilesubjecttoconsultationandplanningcontrol,wouldleadtoalargeramountoflandbeingrequiredtosupporttransportinfrastructure.

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6.6 AgriculturalChangeThe change in agricultural practices over time has been so significant that it should not beconsideredtohavebeencompleted.Agriculturalprocesswillcontinuetodevelop,throughhumaningenuityandinresponsetoachangingsubsidyregimeoreconomicforces.Aslabourcontinuestobe the most expensive element of running a farming business, it is likely than manpowerrequirementswill continue to decrease as technology advances. This change in the availability ofmanpower could lead to a slow decline in structural landscape features such as walls, trees andwoodlandsthroughinsufficientmaintenanceandreplantingAgricultural practices also affect the vegetation, drainageandenclosurepatternof the landscape.The habitats and species able to co-existwith the agricultural sector is heavily dependent on thechoiceofchemicaluseandseasonalpatternsoflandusage.TheThirdStatisticalAccountofScotlandgivesanexampleofthis,statingthatby1951,thepracticeofsilageproductionwasonlygraduallybeingintroduced,withalargenumberofEuropeanvoluntaryworkersbeingimportedforfarmwork.Agriculturepracticesareoneof the largest impactson theGallowayGlensecosystem,with issuessuchasdiffusepollutionoffertilisers,pesticidesandfarmrunoffaffectingtheriversystem.With issues identifiedbelowreferringtoRelictLandscapes,agriculturalpractices isakey influenceontheculturalandbuiltheritageof thearea.TheSchemehasbenefitted fromthesupportof theNationalFarmersUnion(Scotland)onthePartnershipBoard.Looking forward, one of the biggest influences on Agriculture will remain the subsidy regime.Britain’sdeparturefromEuropecouldleadtorapidandsignificantchangeinthesubsidysectorandhencefutureagriculturalpractices.

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6.7 Energy6.7.1 WindPowerAsScotlandhasagoodwind resource,andDumfriesandGallowayhasextensiveareasofupland,there is considerable pressure for windfarms in the area, including around the fringes of theGallowayGlens.Tothewest,theMerrickareaiswellprotectedwithdesignatedareas,buttherearenumerouswindfarmproposalsthatareatvariousstagesintheplanningprocess.Thesetendtobelocatedon theuplands to thenorth-eastandeastof theGallowayGlens,onhigherground in theSouthernUplandhills,althoughthereareafewproposalsonmoreisolatedareasofuplandfurthersouth.6.7.2 HydroPowerAnimportantfeatureoftheGallowayGlensistheHydro-Electricscheme.Theinfrastructureincludesdams, pipes, channels and power stations which require maintenance and periodical upgrades,whichcausetemporaryissuessuchasclearanceofvegetationandlongertermimplicationssuchaspotentiallossofarchaeologicalfeatures.6.7.3 EnergyInfrastructureThereisaproposedupgradeofthepylonssupplyingtheGallowayHydroScheme,withtheKendoontoTonglandrepairprojectproposedfor2020onwards.TheGallowayGlenSchemeshouldseektoharnessanyopportunitiesarisingfromthis.TheSchemearea isalsocrossedbyanewGaspipelinebeing installedtocarrygas to Ireland.Theseverityof this landscape impact is relatively short termas it is anundergroundpipeline, but theroute exists as a scar across the countryside for a number of months, visible at the time ofapplication.6.7.4 BiomassArecentlydevelopedsector,theimplicationsofadramaticincreaseinBiomassasanenergysourcearenotyetknown.AheavilyforestedareasuchastheGallowayGlenscouldwellhaveaparttoplayinanyfutureBiomasstechnologydevelopments.6.7.5 EnergyStorageThe 20th century was one of energy generation; the 21st century will be one of energy storage.Technology isataveryearlystagebuta limiting factorof renewableenergygeneration is the linkbetweengenerationanddemandandthe intermittencyofsupply,particularlywithwindandsolarfarms.Thereservoirsinthevalleycanbeconsideredtobeaformofenergystorage,holdingwateruntil required. If energy storage technology and opportunities were developed then this coulddramaticallychangethepressuresputonareassuchastheGallowayGlensthathaverelativelylowpopulationsbutgoodwindresources.

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6.8 Forestry6.8.1 LegislationTheScottishGovernment’sNationalPlanningFramework (3) states that from2015,100,000haofnew woodland will be planted. The D&G Forestry and Woodland Strategy (DGFWS), 2013SupplementaryGuidancetotheDumfriesandGallowayLocalDevelopmentPlan,sitsinthecontextof theScottishForestryStrategy, (2003)which seta targetof25%woodlandcoverby the secondhalfofthiscentury.D&Ghas31%woodlandcover(wherewoodlandisover0.5ha)and28%(wherecoverisover2ha).WhilethisisgreaterthantheScottishnationaltarget,itismuchlessthanmuchofEuropeandmustbe considered in the context thatmuch of the softwood is atmaturity and due to be harvested.However, harvesting does afford opportunities for restructuring and improvement inmanyways,suchastheretentionofviewsopenedupbyfelling,archaeologicalopportunities,waterqualityandfloodingimplicationsandimpactsonthespecies/habitatbalance,bothpositiveandnegative.TheScottishGovernment’sRationaleforWoodlandExpansionexpandedonthisopportunityinmanywaysincludingthroughbenefitstocommunitiesandenhancementofurbanareasandimprovementtolandscapes;itsetatargetof10,000ha/yr.6.8.2 TreediseaseRaisingawarenessofclimatechange issues is importantaswarmerwintersandwetterspringsareencouragingover-winteringofpestsanddiseases.Phytophthoraramorum,adiseaseaffectinglarch,isprevalentinthewarmerclimateofDumfriesandGalloway.Larchallowsgreaterlighttopenetratethecanopyandthereisagreaterdiversityingroundcover.ThefellingofLarchnowtakingplaceasaresultcouldthereforeinfluencegroundflora,dependingonthespecieschosentoreplacethelarch.Itislikelytoofferopportunityforre-stockinginwithmorediversespecies.Thiswillhaveanimpacton the character of the landscape in terms of seasonality, since larch being the only deciduousconifer.6.9 AGallowayNationalPark?Discussions are underway about the creation of a National Park in Galloway. Precise boundariesunknownyetbuttheyarelikelytoincludesomeifnotalloftheGallowayGlensArea.Queries have been raised about the statutory and financial framework that establishment of aNationalParkwouldbring.CurrentdiscussionsstressthattheNationalParkprocessisnota‘onesizefitsall’andthereforethedesignationbringsunknownimplicationsintermsofplanningcontrolsoranyadditionalrestrictions.

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6.10 RelictLandscapes

6.10.1 Whatisarelictlandscape?Theforcesforchangeidentifiedintheprevioussectionshavethepotentialtoimpactallelementsoftangibleculturalheritageinthehistoricenvironment,butespeciallyareasofrelictlandscape.Relictlandscapesaredefinedas:

• areasthatcontainarchaeologicalsites• areas in close proximity to a known site or where there is reasonable expectation that

archaeologicalmaterialmayexist,• areas containing chance findspots where there is a reasonable expectation that

archaeologicalmaterialmayexist,and• areasforwhichsourcematerial(suchashistoricmaps)indicatesareasonablepossibilityof

archaeologicalfeatures.6.10.2 LocalConsiderationsIn urban areas or those under intensive agricultural use (generally on valley bottoms), relictlandscapes have generally already been impacted by post-medieval tomodern land use. In somecasestheyareknowntosurvivebelowthesurface-theRomanmilitarycomplexatGlenlocharisoneexample - and these could still be adversely impacted by changes in agricultural practice or newdevelopment.Windfarmdevelopmentsandreforestationhavethegreatestpotentialtoimpactthehistoricenvironmentinuplandcontexts.

6.11 Politicalchange6.11.1 NationaloverviewRecently there has been a transfer of decision making powers from the UK parliament inWestminster to the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh. This could have a significant impact on the

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landscape through individual sectors, such as forestry and agricultural policy above but alsochallengingestablishednormssuchastaximplicationsofprivatelandownershipandaccesstotheland.6.11.2 LegislationKeyrecentlegislationthatwillinfluencethelocallandscapeincludes:6.11.2.1LandReform(Scotland)Act2003The Scottish Land Reform Act, bringing in the ‘right to roam’ over public and private land, isconsideredtobeaveryprogressivepieceoflegislationandthewidereachingimpactsareonlynowbecomingclear.Whilethere isstillsomefrictionaroundtheaccesstopic, locallyandonanationallevel,theincreasedabilityforthegeneralpublictoenjoywideraccessinthelandscapeisundeniableand,giventheproximityoftheGallowayGlenstoEngland,itisnotablehowdifferentaccessisnowbeing interpreted between the two countries. This brings its own set of challenges andopportunities,bothtolandownersandaccessusers.6.11.2.2CommunityEmpowerment(Scotland)Act2015Otherrelativelyrecentlegislationisonlynowbeginningtoinfluencethelocallandscape,suchastheCommunity Empowerment Act and the opportunity for Community Asset Transfers from publicbodies. The act is in certain rural settlements leading to an increased sense of communityempowerment,workingtostrengthenthesustainabilityofthesecommunities.6.11.3.3LowCarbonAgendaTheLowCarbonAgendacontinuestodevelopwithwidereaching implications includingonenergyusage, storage and generation, and on theopportunityto restore peatlands and help improvenaturalcarbonsequestrationandsafeguardnaturalcarbonstores.6.11.3 DeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionTheDeliverystageoftheSchemewilltakeplacethroughavitaltimeintheconstitutionalhistoryoftheUnitedKingdom,withtheproposeddeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionin2019.Implicationsofthis decision, resulting from the referendum in 2016, are only nowbeing truly discussed and it islikelythatthisprocesswillhaveamassiveimpactonthelandscapeifthewholecountry, includingtheGallowayGlens.Topicsunderreviewthathavelocallandscapeimplicationsinclude:agriculturalsubsidies,movementofpeople,Tariffson importedandexportedgoods,environmental fundingand funding foraccessworks,amongstothers.ThePartnershipBoardwillmonitordevelopmentsinthisareaverycloselyasthiswillbringanumberofchallengestothenormalwayorworking.TheGallowayGlensSchememustbeabletoreact toopportunitiesorchallengesthatpresentthemselvesduringanytimeofchange.

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6.12 ConclusionsTheGallowayGlensareaissubjecttoanumberofforcesforchange,someglobal,somenationalandsome local to the area. Formore detail resulting from the Landscape Character Assessment andHistoricalEnvironmentAuditactivities,pleaseconsulttheattachedappendix.Theseforcesarelikelytohavevaryinglevelsofinfluenceovercomingyearsandcombinetocreateaunique set of challenges. Of particular significance will be the proposed departure from theEuropeanUnionwhichisscheduledtotakeplaceduringtheScheme’sDeliveryphase.TheGallowayGlensScheme isnotseekingtoworkagainst thesebroader forces forchangebuttoworkwithandaccommodatethem,withoutlosingtheuniquecharacteristicsandheritageassetsofthearea.ItisimperativethattheGallowayGlensSchemeremainsmindfuloftheseforcesforchangetoensurethatlongtermandsustainablebenefitsarealegacyoftheScheme.

KENDOONPOWERSTATIONc.PeterNorman