National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call

December 17, 2015 10:00 AM EST

Listen to the recording here to follow along with the presentation: http://www.freeconferencecalling.com/recordings/Recording.aspx?fileid=LAF3494_12172015070529874_1163647&bridge=697620&email=&accountid=1116753

NCR HUG Call Details Conference Call Details: 1. Dial-in: 1-302-202-1110 2. Conference code: 697620

Join the Meeting through Adobe Connect: (No Registration Required)Click here to access the Adobe Connect meeting

The call will be recorded and the audio will be combined with the presentation and sent out at the end of the call. The audio and presentation will also be made available on the following websites:

NCR HUG Use HAZUS page - http://www.usehazus.com/ncrhugNCR HUG LinkedIn page - http://www.linkedin.com/groups/National-Capitol-Region-HAZUS-User-4790251?trk=myg_ugrp_ovr

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Agenda• Welcome + Announcements

• 8th Annual Hazus User Conference – Report-out

• Risk Assessment Decision Support Tool, Applied in the California Delta– Larry Roth, ARCADIS & David Groves, RAND

• Group Discussion - Visualization of the Month– Due to limited time on this call, we will resume the Visualization of the

Month in January 2016. A graphic will be shared in advance of the call.

• Request for Volunteers – Next NCR HUG Call

• Adjourn

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AnnouncementsUpcoming HAZUS Courses at EMI

The Emergency Management Institute (EMI) has the following HAZUS training course available:

E296 Application of Hazus-MH for Risk Assessment: March 21-24, 2016E313 Basic Hazus-MH: April 11-14, 2016E172 Hazus-MH for Flood: June 20-23 2016E176 Hazus-MH for Floodplain Managers: July 18-21, 2016E317 Comprehensive Data Management for Hazus-MH: August 29-September 1, 2016E179 Application of Hazus-MH for Disaster Operations: September 26-29, 2016

Please note that enrollment is closed for each course, 6 weeks prior to the course!• To apply for a HAZUS training course, please visit:

http://training.fema.gov/Apply/• To enroll, download the Admission Application or contact the • For further information on registration, please visit training.fema.gov/emiweb

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Announcements8th Annual Hazus User Conference Hosted by the Georgia Hazus User Group in Atlanta Georgia – December 9-11, 2015

Location: CDC Conference Center - 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333 Presentations: Will be posted to the NCR HUG Use Hazus Page soon! Theme: "Hazus and the Emergency Management Life Cycle: From Practice to Policy.“

Stay Connected to the Hazus Community through this website, on LinkedIn or follow us on Twitter@HazusCommunity to get the latest news about Hazus and the 2015 Conference!

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New Geospatial Resources and Information!5 Ways We Can Pay for Urban Resiliencehttps://nextcity.org/daily/entry/paying-for-urban-resilience-projects-world-bank-financing

Mayors Make $5 Billion-Plus Resilience Promisehttps://nextcity.org/daily/entry/mayors-resilience-pledge-10-percent-cop21-100rc

Hazus Site Specific Earthquake Data Resources – Developed by FEMA Region VIII and written to the Hazus SFTP site https://data.femadata.com/Hazus/Tools/https://data.femadata.com/Hazus/Tools/Hazus_Earthquake_Site_Specifc_Data_Creation_Resources.zip

New Orleans’ $6.2 Billion Water Problemhttps://nextcity.org/features/view/the-recovery-that-wasnt

ArcGIS 10.4 prerelease is now availablehttp://blogs.esri.com/esri/arcgis/2015/12/14/prerelease/

Virtual Training: Applying US National Grid for Decision Support in Search & Rescuehttp://events.r20.constantcontact.com/register/event?oeidk=a07ebyn8tjx2b32c2e9&llr=nplxpbdab

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Risk Assessment FrameworkCalifornia Delta

December 17, 2015

© Arcadis 2015

Today’s Discussion

Level of Protection

Levees and Risk

Tolerable Risk Guidelines

Applying Tolerable Risk –Planning Tool Demonstration

Levees and Level of Protection

© Arcadis 2015

When it comes to levees, there are two types:

If there are consequences from flooding, then the risk is real

Those that have been overtopped by floodwaters

And those that will be overtopped by floodwaters

William Hammond Hall, 1895

© Arcadis 2015

Current guidanceOne percent AEP – NFIP (44FR 65.10)

100-year level-of-protection (LOP)

Basis for certification and FEMA accreditation

© Arcadis 2015

Increased LOPRed River Basin, US and Canada: 1 in 500 to 1 in 750

New York City: 1 in 500 for critical infrastructure

California: 1 in 200 for urban areas

© Arcadis 2015

LOP is not a safety standard.

Using LOP, the focus is on the hazardBasically an insurance standard

Ignores consequences

Implies risk can be eliminated

Hard to measure cost-effectiveness

Favors structural solutions

Ignores residual risk

Levees and Risk

© Arcadis 2015

What is risk?

What is in harm’s way? How vulnerable is it?

What are the hazards and how likely will they occur?

How will the structure perform?

© Arcadis 2015

Risk = Probability x Consequences

Houston, May 2015

Katrina, Aug 2005

Superstorm Sandy, Oct 2012 South Carolina, Oct 2015

Jones Island, CA, June 2004 Mississippi River, 2011

© Arcadis 2015

© Arcadis 2015

How do we measure risk?Expected Annual Fatalities (EAF)

• Percentage of fatalities among the population who will come in contact with floodwaters

• Dependent on many factors (warning time, water depth and velocity, rate of rise, water temperature, etc.)

© Arcadis 2015

How do we measure risk?Expected Annual Damages (EAD)

• Annual cost of flooding• Integrates the product of the probability of flooding and the potential

economic damage over all flood levels

© Arcadis 2015

What level of risk is tolerable?

Nuclear Power Plants Commercial Aviation

Dams Hazardous Occupations

Tolerable Risk Guidelines

© Arcadis 2015

We make decisions everyday on what level of risk is tolerable to us

© Arcadis 2015

Tolerable Risk is the level of risk people are willing to live with in order to secure certain benefits.

We cannot eliminate risk

Unacceptable Tolerable Broadly acceptable

Risk cannot be justified except under extraordinary circumstances

Range of Tolerability

No further actions required. Risk regarded as insignificant

© Arcadis 2015

ALARP is what can be reasonably done without spending an inordinate amount of time, money, or resources relative to the risk reduction benefits.

Principles of Tolerable RiskLife safety is paramount

Risk cannot be ignored

Absolute safety cannot be guaranteed

Goal = Risk should be As Low As Reasonable Practicable, or ALARP

© Arcadis 2015

If you can measure risk, you can measure the cost-effectiveness of efforts to reduce risk.

Tolerable Risk vs. LOPFacilitates:

• Understanding risk• Managing risk• Communicating risk

Recognizes

• Risk cannot be eliminated• Absolute protection is not

possible

Accounts for structural vs. non-structural options

Enables:

• Evaluation of trade-offs• Assessment of cost-

effectiveness• Efficient use of resources• Establishing priorities• Fair treatment

Applying Tolerable Risk

© Arcadis 2015

Applying Tolerable Risk GuidelinesBest practices identified by USACE and USBR (2015)

USACE Design and Construction of Levees (2016) will encourage risk assessment procedures

© Arcadis 2015

Applying Tolerable Risk Guidelines• Identify Options to Reduce Risk

• Structural• Non-structural• Calculate risk reduction

• Characterize Risk• Inventory assets• Identify Hazards• Assess vulnerabilities• Calculate risk

• Continuously Review• Communicate risks• Adapt to change• Perform robust OMRR&R

• Evaluate Options• Compare cost-effectiveness

of risk reduction measures• Assess residual risk

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2.

3.

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California Delta

© Arcadis 2015

California DeltaLargest estuary on west coast of the Americas

>60 major islands comprising 1300 sq. mi.

1,100 miles of levees

Main source of water for 27M people and 4M acres of farmland

© Arcadis 2015

160 levee failures since 1900Hazards

• Floods• Earthquakes• Subsidence• Seepage• Sea-level riseThreats to

• People, property, and infrastructure

• Water supply• Ecosystem• Delta as a place

© Arcadis 2015

Water Supply Disruption

Pumps to Southern California

© Arcadis 2015

Risk Metrics

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Expected Annual Damage (EAD)

Expected Annual Fatalities (EAF)

Harm to Delta as a place

Water Supply Disruption

Harm to the Ecosystem

© Arcadis 2015

Delta Risk Maps

FLOOD DAMAGE RISK (EAD)

ECOSYSTEM RISK

LIFE LOSS RISK (EAF)

WATER SUPPLY RISK

RISK TO DELTA AS A PLACE

© Arcadis 2015

Risk assessment enables Understanding risk

• Life, property, infrastructure, the environment, and features of interest

Calculating the amount of risk reduction

• Structural alternatives• Non-structural optionsPrioritizing actions to reduce risk

Comparing alternatives and evaluating trade-offs

Determining cost-effectiveness of alternatives

Clear communication of risk to stakeholders and to those most affected

© Arcadis 2015

Thank you!

o 916.865.3140c 916.740.0930e larry.roth@arcadis.com

LARRY ROTH, PE, GEPrincipal Engineer, Arcadis

c 510.868.1819e groves@rand.org

DAVID GROVES, PHDSenior Policy Researcher, RAND

© Arcadis 2015

Thursday January 28, 2016 at 10:00 AM EST

Use the same number and conference code for each call:Call 1-302-202-1110 and enter this conference code # 697620

**Request volunteer for next month’s presentation• HAZUS / Risk Assessment project• HAZUS “How to” presentation

Meeting notes and an updated presentation with audio will be sent out after this call

Adjourn

Next Call

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