E.06-07 Tuesday 3 December 2013

Vocabulary irreversible (adj) 不可逆轉的 composition (n) 構成整體 demographic (adj) 人口統計學的 pervasive (adj) 遍佈的 deteriorate (v) 惡化 ramification (n) 派生的影響gravity (n) 嚴重性 deliberate (v) 慎重考慮

■ Text : Danny (Source: S-fi le) ■ Photos : Sing Tao, InternetSocial Issues

Key ideas

Longer life expectancy and lower birth rates have led

to population ageing, and this demographic change

is happening in most countries around the world. A

bigger elderly group creates healthcare and welfare

burdens on society, and this will be aggravated by a

shrinking working population. Finding ways to tackle

these is an urgent task for public administrators.

Did you know?

Median age is the age that divides a population into

two numerically equal groups; that is, half the people

are younger than this age, and half are older. The

world’s median age now is 26 years and, by 2050, it is

expected to increase to 36 years.

Critical questions

1. Do you think the strategies proposed by the

government could effectively deal with problems

caused by an ageing population?

2. Do you have any new suggestion as to how to tackle

these problems?

References

1. Hong Kong Population Projection – 2012 -2041

www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/

B1120015052012XXXXB0100.pdf

2. Global Ageing Preparedness Index

http://csis.org/publication/global-aging-

preparedness-index

3. World Population Ageing – 1950 -2050

www.un.org/esa/population/publications/

worldageing19502050/

Hong Kong’s ageing problemLIKE the rest of the world, Hong Kong is also facing pressing issues caused by an ageing population.

The Steering Committee on Population Policy (SCPP) has just started a four-month consultation on ways to deal with the situation, and citizens have until late February 2014 to express their opinions.

While the subject of an ageing population has been discussed locally for a long time, the Hong Kong community has yet to come to grips with the gravity of its ramifi cations.

Committee chairman and Chief Secretary for Administration Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor observes, “Population policy has been continually placed in the public domain. But the signifi cance of our demographic challenges and their implications on our socio-economic development have yet to be fully appreciated and thoroughly deliberated in the community.”

How bad is the situation? Lam says, “It is anticipated that by 2041, almost one in three in Hong Kong’s population will be aged 65 or above, and our labour force will start to decline in 2018.”

As a result, the labour force participation rate, or the percentage of people who are working, will drop from 58.8 percent in 2012 to 49.5 percent in 2041, meaning a shrinking working population.

This will, in turn, increase the “dependency ratio” – from 355 dependent persons per 1,000 working-age persons in 2012 to 712 per 1,000 by 2041. Put simply, fewer people will be carrying the weight of more.

“An ageing population will further compress our already narrow tax base, leading to increased

public expenditure,” Lam warns.Clearly, population ageing is an issue that needs to be tackled

immediately. And the CSIS succinctly sums up the situation. “We live in an era of many challenges, from global warming to global terrorism. But few are as certain as global ageing – and few are as likely to have such a large and enduring impact on government budgets, living standards, and the future global economic and geopolitical order.”

Challenges aheadPOPULATION ageing is pervasive. It is a global phenomenon affecting every man, woman and child, as the problems it poses touch every facet of society.

Economically, population ageing will have an impact on economic growth, savings, investment and consumption, labour markets, pensions, taxation and intergenerational transfers.

Nikkei Inc reports that many Asian countries are beset by increasing welfare costs and labour shortages due to population ageing, and governments in the region are exploring the possibility of creating employment for older people.

Malaysia, for example, raised its statutory retirement age from 55 to 60 in July; South Korea did the same in April, and enterprises are being given time to absorb the change in stages.

Singapore, meanwhile, is discussing whether and when to raise its re-employment age from 65 to 67. The move, if adopted, will allow the older generation to stay longer in the workforce.

Socially, an ageing population affects health and healthcare, family composition and living arrangements, as well as housing and migration. People’s health deteriorates with ageing and more elderly people in the population means a greater demand for long-term care.

A CCORDING to the United Nations, the proportion of people aged 60 or over is growing faster than any other age group. That is because people are living longer, and

birth rates are declining.The ageing process is rapid. Between 2000

and 2050, the number of people aged 60 and over is expected to increase from 605 million to 2 billion, boosting their proportion of the general population from 11 percent to 22 percent.

Some see population ageing as a testimony to better public health and the success of socioeconomic development.

But it does not detract from the fact that such a change in population composition calls for major shifts in public policy.

Earth’s human inhabitants are getting older, creating big challenges. Are governments around the world doing enough to forestall the anticipated problems stemming from this possibly irreversible trend – or are we destined to become a grey planet?

Ageing populationChallenges aheadti bi hh llll A tt

a global concern

HK population projections (2011-2041) and policy responses(Mid year) 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041Population (million) 7.0716 7.3705 7.662 7.9371 8.1609 8.3372 8.469Annual average rate of increase 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%Percentage of population0-14 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9%15-64 75% 73% 70% 66% 63% 62% 61%65 and above 13% 16% 19% 23% 26% 29% 30%Median age 41.7 43.4 45.1 46.3 47.7 48.9 49.9

The government is proposing fi ve policy strategies to deal with the challenges caused by the above demographic

changes:

(a) increase the quantity of the labour force by drawing more people into the labour market;

(b) enhance the quality of the labour force by improving education and training and minimising skills mismatch;

(c) build up human capital with a more proactive policy and targeted approach to attract more talent from

overseas and the mainland. Consider a more effective importation of labour system without jeopardising the

interests of local workers;

(d) foster a supportive environment for childbearing for young couples; and

(e) build an age-friendly environment, promote active ageing and develop the ‘silver hair market’.

bli dit ” Lh d h i i

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a nonprofi t organisation based in Washington DC in the US, calls this demographic

transformation “unprecedented” and “stunning”.To put the matter in perspective, CSIS observes

that, “For most of human history, the elderly only comprised a tiny fraction of the population, never more than 3 or 4 percent until about a century ago.”

In the developed world today, it notes, the proportion has risen to about 15 percent of the population, and this is projected to further rise to 25 percent by around mid-century.

That is just the average. In some “fast-ageing” countries, the proportion will go up even more – to 35 percent for European countries and 40 percent in Japan, CSIC notes.

Other reports estimate that by 2050, there will be 64 countries with people aged 60 and over comprising over 30 percent of their respective populations.

The China News Service reports that in 2000, the 60-and-above age group was larger than the fi ve-and-below group, and by 2050,

the former group will be greater in number than persons aged 15 and below.

h i l ti Th i j h

Is an ageing population a burden to the world?