84
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 $U S /C u b ic M etr 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 $U S/B b Figure 1.1 Price of WTI at Chicago Actual Forecast

Figure 1.1 Price of WTI at Chicago

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Actual. Forecast. Figure 1.1 Price of WTI at Chicago. Actual. Forecast. Figure 1.2 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead. Actual. Forecast. Figure 1.3 Average price of natural gas at plant gate. Figure 1.4. Alberta gas well cost estimations - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

$U

S/C

ub

ic M

etr

e

05101520253035404550556065

$U

S/B

bl

Figure 1.1 Price of WTI at Chicago

Actual Forecast

Page 2: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

$C

dn

/cu

bic

me

tre

0

8

16

24

32

40

48

56

64

72

$C

dn

/ba

rre

l

current $/m3 constant 2004$

Figure 1.2 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead

Actual Forecast

Page 3: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

$C

dn

/gig

ajo

ule

Current $/GJ Constant 2004 $/GJ

Figure 1.3 Average price of natural gas at plant gate

Actual Forecast

Page 4: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 1.4. Alberta gas well cost estimationsDrilling, casing and completion costs estimates (in millions 2003$)

By Modified PSAC Area

2002 2004

Area 1Area 1

Area 2Area 2

Area 3Area 3

Area 4Area 4Area 5Area 5

Area 6Area 6Area 7Area 7

•Source: PSAC 2004 Well Cost study (2003 dollars) and PSAC 2002 Well Cost study

(2001 dollars)

2.29

0.18

0.42

0.73 1.79

0.270.42 0.45 0.29

1.97 0.82

0.45

0.18

2.29

0.0% 4.8%

5.5% 12.0%

12.3%

6.2%5.5%

increase in costs (in percentage, over 2 years)

Page 5: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 1.5. Alberta oil well cost estimationsDrilling, casing and completion costs estimates. (in millions 2003$)

By Modified PSAC Area

Area 3Area 3

Area 4Area 4Area 5Area 5

Area 7Area 7

•Source: PSAC 2004 Well Cost study (2003 dollars) and PSAC 2002 Well Cost study

(2001 dollars)

2002 2004

0.78

0.610.53

0.66

0.85

0.640.52

0.75

13.2%

-2.1%4.3%

9.0%

increase in costs (in percentage, over 2 years)

Page 6: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

77.0

71.6

63.764.6

67.3

67.3

67.5

72.272.9 73.3

60

65

70

75

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004C

en

ts

Exchange Rate

5.34.4

2.7

1.6

4.1

5.5

1.5

3.5

2.3

2.7

7.207.60

6.807.60

9.70

8.30

7.20

9.509.20

7.60

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Pe

rc

en

ta

ge

Real GDP Growth Unemployment Rate

2.7

1.62.2

1.60.9

1.7

2.62.2

2.81.9

4.04.2

7.3

6.46.1

6.65.8

8.7

5.04.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Pe

rc

en

ta

ge

Inflation Rate Prime Rate on Loans

Figure 1.6. Canadian economic indicators

Page 7: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Per

cen

t

Unemployment Rate Inflation Rate Real GDP Growth Rate

Figure 1.7. Alberta GDP growth, unemployment & inflation rates

Actual Forecast

Page 8: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 2.1. Alberta’s three oil sands areas

Page 9: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Initial Reserves Remaining Reserves

109 m

3

Crude Oil Crude Bitumen

Figure 2.2. Comparison of Alberta’s crude oil and crude bitumen reserves

Page 10: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 2.3. Bitumen pay isopachs for the Athabasca

Wabiskaw-McMurray deposit at 6 mass per cent cutoff and greater than 1.5

metres

Page 11: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 2.4. Net pay isopachs for recoverable

bitumen within the Athabasca Wabiskaw-

McMurray at 6 mass per cent cutoff and greater than

10 metres

Page 12: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

ATHABASCA

COLD LAKE

PEACE RIVER

2.517.5

41.4

111.7

Figure 2.5. Production of bitumen in Alberta2004 103 m3/d

Mined Bitumen

In Situ

Page 13: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Per

cen

tag

e

Conventional Crude Oil & Pentanes Plus SCO & Bitumen

Figure 2.6. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production

Page 14: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 2.7. Alberta crude bitumen production

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

103 m

3 /d

ForecastActual

Surface Mining

In Situ

Page 15: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Num

ber o

f Wel

ls

0

20

40

60

80

Pro

du

ctio

n (1

03 m

3/d)

Producing Wells Production

Figure 2.8. Total in situ bitumen production and producing bitumen wells

Page 16: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 2.9. Alberta synthetic crude oil production

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

103 m

3 /d

ForecastActual

Synthetic Crude Oil

Page 17: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 2.10. Alberta Demand and Disposition of Crude Bitumen and SCO

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

103 m

3 /d

ForecastActual

SCORemovals from Alberta

Nonupgraded Bitumen Removals from Alberta

Alberta Demand (mainly SCO)

Page 18: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 3.1. Remaining established reserves of crude oil

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

106 m

3

Light-medium

Heavy

Page 19: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 3.2. Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

106 m

3

Additions Revisions

Page 20: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 3.3. Annual changes to waterflood reserves

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

106 m

3

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

New Waterflood Waterflood Revisions

Page 21: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Fig. 3.4. Distribution of oil reserves by size(103m3)

% Total Number of Pools

>1000

100-999

30-99

'1-29

% Initial Reserves

% Remaining Reserves

Page 22: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Initi

al E

stab

lishe

d R

eser

ves

(106 m

3 )

Average Median

Figure 3.5. Oil pool size by discovery year

Page 23: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 3.6. Initial established crude oil reserves based on various recovery mechanisms (106 m3)

Primary 1599

Primary273

Waterflood106

Waterflood572

Solvent flood107

Gas flood8

Light-medium Heavy

Page 24: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 3.7. Geological distribution of reserves of conventional crude oil

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

UpperCretaceous

LowerCretaceous

Jurassic Triassic Permian-Belloy Mississippian Upper Devonian MiddleDevonian

Rese

rves

(10

6 m3 )

Initial established reserves Remaining established reserves

Page 25: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

2004 Initial established reserves2664.9 106 m3

2004 Remaining established reserves249.2 106 m3

258

17

478

49

1193

75

384

45

17614159

45

Fig. 3.8. Regional distribution of Alberta oil reserves

(106 m3)

2

21

Page 26: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 3.9. Alberta’s remaining established oil Reserves versus cumulative production

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Cumulative Production (106 m3)

Rem

aini

ng E

stab

lishe

d Oi

l Res

erve

s (1

06 m

3 )

Year 1970

Page 27: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 3.10. Growth in initial established reservesof crude oil

1700

1850

2000

2150

2300

2450

2600

2750

2900

3050

3200

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Actual as of December 31,2004

3130Ultimate potentiial

106 m

3

Page 28: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 3.11. Alberta successful oil well drilling

By Modified PSAC Area

62

12

350

679

2

2003 Wells Drilled = 2345

2004 Wells Drilled = 1949

41

8

557389

323

8

616

149 178

534386

Page 29: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 3.13. Initial operating day rates of oil wells placed on production,

2004 By Modified PSAC Area

17.9(112)

12.7(80)

7.3(46)

4.8(30)

7.3(46)

5.5(34)

10.5(66)m3/day/well

(bbl/day/well)Total = 1910 wells

326

3

410 368

609

Figure 3.12. Oil wells placed on production, 2004

By Modified PSAC Area

150

44

Page 30: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

40

80

120

160

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

103 m

3 /day

PSAC 8

PSAC 7

PSAC 5

PSAC 4

PSAC 3

PSAC 2

PSAC 1

Figure 3.14. Conventional crude oil productionBy Modified PSAC Area

Page 31: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

Num

ber o

f Wel

ls

0

50

100

150

200

250

Pro

du

ctio

n (1

03 m

3/d)

Producing Wells Production

Figure 3.15. Total crude oil production and producing oil wells

Page 32: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0.0-2.0 2.1-5.0 5.1-8.0 8.1-20.0 20.1-50.0 50.1-100.0 100.1+

Production Category (m3/d)

Nu

mb

er o

f W

ell

s

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

m3/

d

Producing Wells Average Rate

Figure 3.16. Crude oil well productivity in 2004

Page 33: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

40

80

120

160

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Th

ou

san

ds

of C

ub

ic M

etre

s P

er D

ay

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

Pre-1995

7%

11%

Figure 3.17. Total conventional crude oil Production by year placed on production

4%

6%

3%7%

42%

Percent of totalproduction fromoil wells

6%

6%4%

3%

Page 34: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

10

3 bb

l/dFigure 3.18. Comparison of crude oil production

Texas Onshore

Louisiana OnshoreAlberta Crude Oil

Page 35: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Nu

mb

er

of

We

lls

$0$10

$20$30

$40$50

$60$70

US

$/b

bl

Well placed on production WTI @ Chicago

Figure 3.19. Alberta Crude Oil Price and Well Activity

Actual Forecast

Page 36: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 3.20. Alberta daily production of crude oil

0

40

80

120

160

200

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Prod

uctio

n (1

03 m

3 /d

)

ForecastActual

Light-Medium Crude Oil

Heavy Crude Oil

Page 37: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Imperial, Edmonton

Petro-Canada, Edmonton

Shell, Scotford

Husky, Lloydminster

Parkland, Bowden

Figure 3.21. Capacity and location of Alberta refineries

Re

fin

ery

Cap

aciti

es -

m3/d

Page 38: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 3.22. Alberta demand and disposition of crude oil

0

40

80

120

160

200

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

103 m

3 /d

ForecastActual

Alberta Demand

Crude Oil Removals from Alberta

Page 39: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 3.23. Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

103 m

3 /d

ForecastActual

Light-Medium

Heavy

Pentanes Plus

SCO

Nonupgraded Bitumen

Page 40: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago
Page 41: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 4.1. Alberta successful gas well drilling – coalbed methane

By Modified PSAC Area

2004 Wells Drilled = 1174

151

613

3

407

Page 42: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

5

10

15

20

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 4.2. Expected coalbed methane production10

9 m3

Page 43: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

109

m3

Additions Production

Figure 5.1. Annual reserves additions and production of marketable gas

Page 44: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

109

m3

Figure 5.2. Remaining marketable gas reserves

Page 45: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Total = 72 109m3

22

6

Figure 5.3. Alberta unconnected gas reserves,2004

By Modified PSAC Area

4

43

2

16

* Numbers not to scale

15

Page 46: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

109 m

3

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

New Development Revisions

Figure 5.4. New, development, and revisions to marketable gas reserves

Page 47: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Total = 145.9 109m3

12.0 -3.7

Figure 5.5. Marketable Gas Reserves Changes,

2004By Modified PSAC Area 109m3

3.7

0.0 4.9

71.0

17.9

40.1

* Numbers not to scale

Page 48: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Fig. 5.6. Distribution of Gas Reserves by size

(109m3)

% Total Number of Pools

>1500

300-1499

100-299

31-100

'1-30

% Initial Reserves

% Remaining Reserves

Page 49: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001

Esta

blis

hed

rese

rves

(106 m

3 )

Average Median

Figure 5.7. Gas pools by size and discovery year

Page 50: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

UpperCretaceous

LowerCretaceous

Jurassic Triassic Permian-Belloy Mississippian Upper Devonian MiddleDevonian

10

9 m3

Initial marketable reserves Remaining marketable reserves

Figure 5.8. Geological distribution of marketable gas reserves

Page 51: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

109 m

3

Sweet Natural Gas

Sour Natural Gas

Figure 5.9. Remaining marketable reserves of sweet andsour gas

Page 52: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 5.10. Expected recovery of natural gas components

20

5060

9045

3530

10

100

35

15 10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Methane Ethane Propane Butanes Pentanes plus

Perc

entag

e of C

ompo

nent

Removed at Field Plants Removed at Straddle Plants Marketable Gas

Page 53: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Figure 5.11. Growth of initial established reserves of marketable gas

Ultimate potential (6.52)10

12 m

3 at 3

7.4

MJ/

m3

Actual as of December 31, 2004

Page 54: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 5.12. Gas ultimate potential

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Remaining reserves

Production

Ultimate potential based on 2004 study

10

9 m

3

Page 55: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Remaining established reserves1127 109 m3

Yet-to-be established reserves1729 109m3

338

43

403

643

155

272

52 109

48

95

52

197

61 36

169

Figure 5.13. Regional Distribution of Alberta Gas Reserves (109 m3)

183

1706

256

953

214

904

220

20490

Initial established reserves4547 109m3

Page 56: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Ultimate Potential: 2004 *1

6276 109 m3

Ultimate Potential: 1991 *2

5600 109m3

1122

439

2349

1176

1044

323 225

180

401 341

103151

889

Figure. 5.14. Regional Distribution of Alberta’s Ultimate Potential for

Conventional Natural Gas (109 m3)

434

315

2374

*1 as-is heating value*2 37.4 MJ/m3

Page 57: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 5.15. Gas in place by geological period

2682

1695

322326

3249

1351

2158

1642

402296

4017

2068

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Geological Age Group

GIP

(109 m

3)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

GIP

(T

cf)

1991 Undiscovered1991 Discovered2004 Undiscovered2004 Discovered

Upper Lower Jurassic Triassic Mississippian Devonian Cretaceous Cretaceous

Page 58: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 5.16. Alberta successful gas well drilling - conventional

By Modified PSAC Area

477

243

1482

811

6567

85

2003 Wells Drilled = 12060

2004 Wells Drilled = 12960

469

163

346 357

2049 2562 1792

102

898

6609

Page 59: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Drilled Connected

Figure 5.17. Successful conventional gas wells drilled and connected

Nu m

b er o

f Wel

ls

Page 60: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 5.19. Initial operating day rates of connections,

2004 By Modified PSAC Area

7(0.25)

19(0.67)

5(0.18)

8(0.28)

5(0.18)

20(0.71)

65(2.30)

4(0.14)103m3/day/well

(MMcf/day/well)Total = 13 059 wells

7107 84

2111

1743 1080

Figure 5.18. Conventional gas well connections,

2004By Modified PSAC Area

263

253

418

Page 61: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Connection Year

109

m3

PSAC 8

PSAC 7

PSAC 6

PSAC 5

PSAC 4

PSAC 3

PSAC 2

PSAC 1

Gas from OilWells

Figure 5.20. Marketable gas productionBy Modified PSAC Area

10%

6%

38%

18%

5%

12%

4%5%2%

Page 62: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Producing gas wells Production

Figure 5.21. Conventional marketable gas production and the number of producing gas wells

109

m3

Num

ber o

f Wel

ls

Page 63: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0.0-2.0 2.1-5.0 5.1-8.0 8.1-20.0 20.1-50.0 50.1-100.0 100.1+

Production Category (103m3/d)

Nu

mb

er o

f W

ells

0

50

100

150

200

250

103 m

3 /d

Producing Wells Average Rate

Figure 5.22. Natural gas well productivity in 2004

Page 64: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Connection Year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Prod

uctio

n (1

09 m3 )

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

Pre 1995

Gas from OilWells

Percentage ofTotal Production from Gas Wells in 2004

26%

13%

16%

11%

9 %

5 %

Figure 5.23. Raw gas production by connection year

7 %

5 % 4 %

3 % 2%

Page 65: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Connection Year

Pro

duct

ivity

(103 m

3 /d)

Average initial productivities for the provinceAverage initial productivities for the province excluding PSAC area 3Average initial productivities for PSAC Area 3

Figure 5.24. Average initial natural gas well productivity in Alberta

Page 66: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Num

ber

of W

ells

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$Can

/GJ

New Well Connections Alberta Plant Gate Price

Figure 5.25. Alberta Natural Gas Well Activity and Price

Actual Forecast

Page 67: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 5.26. Disposition of conventional marketable gas production

0

50

100

150

200

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Actual Forecast

1 09 m

3

Tcf

7.1

5.3

3.6

1.8

25% 23% 27% 36% 42%

Removals from Alberta Alberta Demand

Page 68: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 5.27. Comparison of natural gas production

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Tcf

Texas Onshore

Louisiana Onshore

Alberta

Page 69: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Process Gas from Upgrading Operations Gas from Bitumen Wells

Figure 5.28. Gas production from bitumen upgrading and bitumen wells10

6 m

3

Actual Forecast

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0

50

100

150

200

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Conventional Marketable Gas Coalbed Methane

Process Gas from Upgrading Bitumen Gas from Bitumen Wells

Figure 5.29. Total gas production in Alberta10

9 m

3

Actual Forecast

Page 71: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 5.30. Alberta natural gas storage injection/withdrawal volumes

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2002 2003 2004

106 m

3

Page 72: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 5.31. Alberta marketable gas demand by sector

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

109 m

3

Actual Forecast

Residential

Commercial

Industrial – Oil Sands

Industrial - Petrochemical

Other Industrial

Electricity Generation

Transportation

Re-processing Plant Shrinkage

Page 73: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 6.1. Remaining established NGL reserves expected to be extracted and annual production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Ethane Propane Butanes Pentanes Plus

Liq

uid

vo

lum

e (1

06 m

3 )

Reserves Annual Production

Page 74: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 6.2. Remaining established reserves of natural gas liquids

0

50

100

150

200

250

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Esta

blis

hed

Res

erve

s (1

06 m3 )

Ethane Propane Butanes Pentanes plus

Page 75: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 6.3. Schematic of Alberta NGL flows

Alberta Gas & NGL Market

Alberta Gas & NGL Market

- NGL Mix- Ethane- Propane- Butanes- Pentanes Plus

FieldPlantsField

Plants Marketable Gas

Raw Gas

Extraction Plant- Ethane- Propane- Butanes- Pentanes Plus

Chicago, IL

Other CanadianMarkets

Other CanadianMarkets

US MarketsUS Markets

AlbertaBorder

Crude

Oil

Fractionation Plants- Ethane- Propane- Butanes- Pentanes Plus

Propane

Butanes

Straddle Plants- NGL Mix- Ethane- Propane- Butanes- Pentanes Plus

Oil PoolsOil Pools RefineriesRefineries

Alliance High Pressure Pipeline

Gas PoolsGas

Pools

SulphurSulphur

BatteryBatteryBattery

Dry Gas

NGL MixSpec productRich gas

R

R

R

R Point royalties collected

Dry or rich gas

Page 76: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 6.4. Ethane supply and demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Supply Alberta Demand*

* excludes solvent flood volumes

103m3/d

Actual Forecast

Page 77: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 6.5. Propane supply from natural gas and demand

0

10

20

30

40

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Supply Alberta Demand*

103m3/d

Actual Forecast

* excludes solvent flood volumes

Page 78: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 6.6. Butane supply from natural gas and demand

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Supply Alberta Demand*

103m3/d

Actual Forecast

* excludes solvent flood volumes

Page 79: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

Figure 6.7 Pentane supply from natural gas and demand

0

10

20

30

40

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Supply Alberta Demand*

103m3/d

Actual Forecast

* excludes solvent flood volumes

Page 80: Figure 1.1  Price of WTI at Chicago

0

2

4

6

8

10

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Mill

ion

s o

f t

on

ne

s Figure 7.1. Sources of sulphur production

Sour Gas

Refining and Upgrading

Actual Forecast

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003 2004

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f to

nn

es

Syncrude Suncor Shell

Figure 7.2. Sulphur production from oil sands

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Australia Brazil China NewZealand

SouthAfrica

Others

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f to

nn

es

2003 2004

Figure 7.3. Canadian sulphur offshore exports

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0

2

4

6

8

10

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Millio

ns

of

to

nn

es

Figure 7.4. Sulphur demand and supply in Alberta

Alberta Demand

Removed from Province

Stockpile

Actual Forecast

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Subbituminous Thermal Bituminous Metallurgical Bituminous

Figure 8.1. Alberta Marketable Coal ProductionM

illio

n to

nnes