Fifth TWG I Meeting: Energy Policy Analysis

Oetomo Tri Winarno

Grand Candi Hotel - Semarang11 July 2011

Agenda

1. Opening and introduction2. Presentation by Pusdatin 3. Presentation by regional team 4. How to develop RUED5. Integration of TWG reports6. Discussion7. Work plan for the coming months

Review of TWG 2 Activities

29 Nov2009

1st Meeting

8 Feb2010

2nd Meeting

27 May2010

3rd Meeting

21 Oct2010

4th Meeting

22 Dec 2010

BandungMeeting

1 Mar2011

5th Meeting

Jul2011

6th Meeting

NationalSeminar

TWG IISubmission

Sep2011

28 May 2011

BandungMeeting

Deadline in the Proposal

TWG II• D25 renewable energy action plan (end of 2010)

TWG I• D21 energy profile (end of 2009)• D22 energy profile (end of 2010)• D23 energy profile (end of 2011)• D28 energy outlook, including the pro-poor strategies

(mid 2011)• D26 activities aimed at lower level authorities (???)

Finalization of D21, D22, D23

• Technical Proposal:– Report: in English & Bahasa Indonesia– Does not mentioned the format of the report: softcopy

or hardcopy ??• I propose:– Hardcopy for all Casindo stakeholders (ECN, Pusdatin,

ETCERE, DJ EBTKE, ITB, 5 regions, Dinas, etc.)• Content:– D21 & D22 : tables– D23 : tables & narration

Outline D231.General information of province 2008 1.1 Geographic and political 1-2 pages 1.2 Socio-economic 1.2.1 Population (plus trend 2005- 2008) 2-3 pages 1.2.2 Economy (overall + per (sub)sector plus trend 2005-2008) 5-7 pages 1.3 Energy resources (domestic)2 .Energy Balance 2.1 Final energy consumption 2.1.1 Final energy consumption by sector (plus trend 2005- 2008) 5-7 pages 2.1.2 Final energy consumption per energy (plus trend 2005- 2008) 3 pages 2.2 Energy transformation 2.2.1 Electricity production (PLN- non PLN; plus trend 2005- 2008) 2-3 pages 2.2.2 Others (refinery, … when applicable) 1-2 pages 2.3 Energy supply (domestic plus imports/exports) (plus trend 2005- 2008) 2.3.1 solid fuels 1-2 pages 2.3.2 liquid fuels 3-4 pages 2.3.3 gas 1-2 pages 2.3.4 biomass and other renewables 3-4 pages

Outline D232.4 Energy and commodity balance 2.4.1 commodity balance 1-2 pages 2.4.2 energy balance 1-2 pages3. Data sources and assumptions 3 1 data sources 1-2 pages 3.2 assumptions 1-2 pages 3.3 main methodology changes with energy profile 2005 1-2 pages Annex Commodity balance Energy Balance Tables and graphs from Excel file

How to Develop RUED

• New KEN have not launch yet• RUEN will launch after New KEN• RUEN guideline is still in process• D28 will refer to RUEN guideline (not estab’d)

RUEN – RUED FlowDEN

KESDMc.q. Setjen

RancanganAwal RUEN

Propinsi

Kabupaten/Kota

KebijakanEnergi Nasional

RancanganAwal RUED - TP

RancanganRUED - TK

RancanganRUED - TP

RancanganRUEN

Penetapan RUEN

PenetapanRUED - TP

PenetapanRUED - TK

Jan

Mar

Mei

Jul

Sep

Okt

Nov

Des

D28 (RUED) OutlineBAB I PENDAHULUAN 1.1 Kebijakan dan Perundangan1.2 Tujuan 1.3 Indikator Pemakaian Energi BAB II PRAKIRAAN PERMINTAAN ENERGI2.1 Asumsi Model dan Parameter Skenario2.2 Permintaan Energi Final per Sektor2.3 Permintaan Energi Final per Jenis BAB III PERENCANAAN PENYEDIAAN ENERGI3.1 Minyak dan Gas Bumi3.2 Kelistrikan3.3 Batubara3.4 Energi Baru dan Terbarukan

BAB IV EMISI DARI SEKTOR ENERGI4.1 Emisi CO2 dari Pengguna Akhir4.2 Emisi CO2 dari Pembangkitan Listrik4.3 Emisi CO2 dari Pertambangan Migas

dan Batubara4.4 Emisi CO2 dari Industri Migas BAB V STRATEGI PELAKSANAAN5.1 Sisi Permintaan5.2 Sisi Penyediaan

D28 (RUED) OutlineBAB I PENDAHULUAN 1.1 Kebijakan dan Perundangan1.2 Tujuan 1.3 Indikator Pemakaian Energi BAB II PRAKIRAAN PERMINTAAN ENERGI2.1 Asumsi Model dan Parameter Skenario2.2 Permintaan Energi Final per Sektor2.3 Permintaan Energi Final per Jenis BAB III PERENCANAAN PENYEDIAAN ENERGI3.1 Minyak dan Gas Bumi3.2 Kelistrikan3.3 Batubara3.4 Energi Baru dan Terbarukan

BAB IV EMISI DARI SEKTOR ENERGI4.1 Emisi CO2 dari Pengguna Akhir4.2 Emisi CO2 dari Pembangkitan Listrik4.3 Emisi CO2 dari Pertambangan Migas

dan Batubara4.4 Emisi CO2 dari Industri Migas BAB V STRATEGI PELAKSANAAN5.1 Sisi Permintaan5.2 Sisi Penyediaan

TWG I

TWG I

TWG II

TWG III

TWG I

TWG II

TWG III

TWG I

TWG I

TWG II

TWG III

TWG IV

TWG V

TWG I and Other TWGs

LEAP Modeling

Report on Energy Outlook(Regional Energy Planning)

D28

D21 D22 D23

TWG ITWG II

Report on RenewableEnergy Action Plan

D25 TWG III

Report on EnergyConservation Action Plan

D24

TWG IV

Report on EnergySupply Projects

D27

D26Report on Activitiesat Kabupaten/Kota

TWG ??

LEAP Modeling

• Region categorization:– By province: Jateng, Sumut, Papua– By island: NTB– By regency/city: Yogya

• Base year 2008• Population: based on Sensus 2000 - 2010

LEAP Modeling

LEAP Model-Overall energy supply demand outlook-Energy mix outlook (incl. RE)-Energy conservation scenario

Energy Profile-Energy consumption-Energy supply

RE Action Plan-RE data-RE planning & target

EC Action Plan-EC potential-EC planning & target

TWG II in LEAP Model• Demand model– Demand of biofuel– Biomass for substituting oil fuel in industry

• Supply model– Geothermal PP– Hydro PP– Wind PP– Solar PV– Biomass PP– Biofuel production– Combined fuel

TWG III in LEAP Model

• Only for demand side:– Household sector: detailed to end use– Commercial sector: ?– Industry sector: ?– Transport sector: ?

TWG III in LEAP Model

• Conservation step:– Behavioral change– Retrofitting the current equipment– Technology change

ScenariosBAU according to current policy/trend

Optimistic KED Follow:- the full target of RE in TWG II- the full target of conservation in TWG III

Moderate KED Corrected optimistic target with the most possible development

Work plan

Juli Agustus September Oktober November

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4D21, D22, D23 X X X XD24 X X X X XD25 X X X X X X D28: LEAP modeling X X X X X X D28: report writing X X X X X D28: proofing X X X D28: printing X X D26 Semarang Meeting X National Seminar X X : NTB, Yogya, JatengX : Sumut, Papua

Preparation of CASINDO National Seminar

26 October 2011Session I on regional energy policy formulation • ITB : overview of approach & result • USU : energy efficiency master plan • UNCEN : renewable energy action plan• UMY : pro- poor energy strategy

International Conference

• International Conference and Exhibition on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency– Date: 17 – 19 Oct 2011 – Place: Nusa Dua, Bali– Conducted by: WREC, KNI-WEC

• Deadline for paper submission: end of July

Thank You