Field Poll: Jerry Brown Approval

7/27/2019 Field Poll: Jerry Brown Approval

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THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY

OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS

THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD

Field Research Corporation601 California Street, Suite 900San Francisco, CA 94108-2814

(415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541EMAIL: [email protected]/fieldpollonline

Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer

THE

FIELD

POLLRelease #2446 Release Date: Wednesday, July 24, 2013

JERRY BROWN CONTINUES TO RECEIVE

HIGH JOB PERFORMANCE MARKS. MORE

FAVOR THAN OPPOSE HIS RE-ELECTION

SHOULD HE RUN AGAIN NEXT YEAR.

IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is

subject to revocation if publication or broadcasttakes place before release date or if contents are

divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff

prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)

By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

A 51% to 33% majority of California voters approves of the job Jerry Brown is doing as governor.

While this assessment is down slightly from a 57% approval mark last February, it remains higher

than each of nine earlierField Poll measures taken since his 2010 election as governor.

With the next gubernatorial primary less than a year away, the survey also finds that a 43% to 38%

plurality of the overall electorate, and a 57% to 22% majority of Democrats, are inclined to support

Brown in a re-election bid should he run for another term.

Trend of Browns job ratings

Between early 2011, when Brown began his current term, and late last year, pluralities ofCalifornians have consistently approved of Browns job performance. Their assessments reached a

high point early this year when a 57% majority gave him positive marks. While voters current

appraisal is slightly less positive, 51% continue to approve of the job Brown is doing.

Rank-and-file Democrats approve of Browns performance four to one (68% to 17%). Voters with

no major party preference, who now represent over one-quarter of the electorate, also approve of the

job Brown is doing 54% to 29%. By contrast, Republican voters hold a contrary view, with nearly

three times as many disapproving (61%) as approving (23%).


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The Field Poll #2446

Wednesday, July 24, 2013 Page 2

Table 1

Trend of job performance ratings of Jerry Brownduring his current term as Governor

(among registered voters)

Approve Disapprove No opinion

July 2013 51% 33 16

February 2013 57% 31 12

October 2012 46% 37 17

September 2012 46% 37 17

July 2012 44% 42 14

Late May 2012 43% 40 17

February 2012 45% 38 17

November 2011 47% 36 17

September 2011 49% 32 19

June 2011 46% 31 23March 2011 48% 21 31

Party registration (July 2013)

Democrats 68% 17 15

Republicans 23% 61 16

No party preference/others 54% 29 17

Note: October 2012 survey conducted among likely voters in the November 2012 general election.

Plurality of voters are inclined to re-elect Brown should he run for re-election

Most political observers expect Brown to run for re-election next year. In the current survey voters

were asked whether or not they would be inclined to support Brown in a re-election bid. The results

show that a 43% plurality of voters overall supports his re-election, 38% are opposed, and another

19% say it depends or are undecided. Among Democrats the margin supporting another Brown term

is two and one-half to one (57% to 22%).

In addition to Democrats, the voter segments most supportive of re-electing Brown are liberals,

voters living in the nine-county the San Francisco Bay Area, and those who have completed post-

graduate work in college.

Men are currently inclined to vote for Browns re-election 47% to 38%, while women are moreevenly divided 40% inclined vs. 39% not inclined. Pluralities of voters age 18-39, seniors age 65

or older, college graduates, middle-of-the-road voters and Los Angeles County residents also favor

another term for Brown.

The voter segments who oppose Brown's re-election are Republicans and conservatives, voters in

eight-county Southern California region outside of Los Angles County and voters living in the

Central Valley.


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Table 2

Voter inclination to re-elect Jerry Brown as Governor should he run in 2014 overall and among subgroups of the voting population

Support

re-election

Oppose

re-election

Depends/

UndecidedTotal registered voters 43% 38 19

Party registration

Democrats 57% 22 21

Republicans 21% 66 13No party preference/other 44% 35 21

Political ideology

Strongly conservative 16% 77 7

Moderately conservative 32% 55 13Middle-of-the-road 43% 33 24

Moderately liberal 58% 25 17

Strongly liberal 76% 8 16

Gender

Male 47% 38 15

Female 40% 39 21

RegionLos Angeles County 45% 31 24

Other Southern California 33% 51 16

Central Valley 37% 46 17San Francisco Bay Area 61% 21 18

Other Northern California* 32% 49 19

Age18-39 43% 35 2240-64 40% 41 19

65 or older 49% 39 12

Race/ethnicity

White non-Hispanic 43% 40 17

Latino 41% 38 21African-American/Asian/other 42% 34 24

Education

High school graduate or less 37% 40 23

Some college/trade school 37% 47 16

College graduate 45% 37 18Post-graduate work 57% 24 19

* Small sample base.

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Information About The Survey

Methodological Details

The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll survey completed June 26 July 21, 2013 among

random samples of either 841 or 846 registered voters in California.

Interviewing was conducted by telephone using live interviewers working from Field Research Corporationscentral location telephone interviewing facilities in San Diego. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen

and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing

period.

Interviewing was completed on either a voters landline phone or a cell phone depending on the source of the

telephone listing from the voter file. After the completion of interviewing, the overall registered voter sample

was weighted to Field Poll estimates of the characteristics of the overall registered voter population in

California.

Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size as

well as the percentage distribution being examined. The maximum sampling error for results based on each

statewide sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The maximum sampling error is

based on results in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., percentages at or near 50%). Percentages ateither end of the distribution (those closer to 10% or 90%) have a smaller margin of error. There are other

potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of the

survey sought to minimize these other possible sources of error.

The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor.

The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public

opinion. The Poll receives annual funding from media subscribers ofThe Field Poll, from several California

foundations, and the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data

files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes.

Questions Asked

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as Governor of California?

Jerry Brown's term as Governor ends in 2014. If Jerry Brown runs for re-election, would you be inclined ornot inclined to vote to re-elect Brown as Governor?

Documents

Field Poll: Jerry Brown Approval