Field Poll: Calif. Voters Say They're Financially Better Off

THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY

OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS

THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD

Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 (415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541 EMAIL: [email protected] www.field.com/fieldpollonline

Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer

THE

FIELD

POLL

Release #2473 Release Date: Thursday, June 26, 2014

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2007 MORE

CALIFORNIA VOTERS SAY THEY ARE

FINANCIALLY BETTER OFF THAN THEY

WERE DURING THE PRIOR YEAR. YET,

MORE STILL DESCRIBE THE STATE AS

BEING IN ECONOMIC BAD TIMES THAN

GOOD TIMES.

IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is

subject to revocation if publication or broadcast

takes place before release date or if contents are

divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff

prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)

By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

According to The Field Poll’s annual assessment of the economic well-being of Californians, 44%

of registered voters now report that they are financially better off than they were last year, while

28% are worse off. Another 28% say there has been no change. This is the first time in seven years

that more California voters have reported being financially better off than worse off compared to the

prior year.

Nevertheless, when asked to describe the overall California economy, more than twice as many still

describe the state as being in economic bad times (53%) as good times (25%). Contributing to this

assessment are voter concerns about the availability of jobs. Nearly two in three (64%) believe jobs

are difficult to find in their area, while just 21% feel they are plentiful. In addition, 52% describe

unemployment in California as very serious.

These findings come from the latest statewide Field Poll completed last week.

Improvement in Californians’ self-reported financial well-being

More Californians now say they are financially better off this year compared to last (44%) as report

being worse off (28%). Another 28% say there has been no change. This is a much more positive

assessment of personal financial well-being than each of six prior Field Polls conducted since 2007,

when many more described themselves as financially worse off than better off during the prior year.

However, improvements in financial well-being vary considerably by household income. Voters

with higher incomes are far more likely than those with lower incomes to report improvement. For

example, among voters with annual household incomes of $80,000 or more, nearly three times as

many report they are financially better off than they were during the prior year (58%) as say they

are worse off (22%). By contrast, voters with annual household incomes of less than $40,000 are

more likely to report being financially worse off this year (37%) than better off (30%).

The Field Poll #2473

Thursday, June 26, 2014 Page 2

Table 1

Californians' personal financial well-being compared to one year ago (among registered voters)

Better off No change Worse off

June 2014 44% 28 28 2013 30% 26 44 2012 25% 33 42 2011 22% 28 50 2010 23% 25 52 2009 18% 23 59 2008 14% 23 63 2007 37% 30 33 2005 41% 28 31 2004 41% 32 27 2003 38% 26 36 2002 35% 30 35 2001 47% 26 27 2000 54% 28 18 1999 49% 35 16 1998 54% 30 16 1997 42% 31 27 1996 38% 35 27 1995 34% 32 34 1994 37% 32 31 1993 29% 26 45 1992 26% 24 50 1991 25% 28 47 1990 42% 28 30 1989 46% 27 27 1988 50% 23 27 1987 49% 26 25 1986 52% 28 20 1985 54% 27 19 1984 55% 24 21 1981 33% 25 42 1979 30% 28 41 1978 41% 35 24 1977 34% 36 30 1976 28% 33 39 1974 28% 29 43 1973 39% 33 28 1971 29% 36 35 1970 34% 33 33 1966 37% 45 18 1961 40% 41 19

Household income (June 2014) Less than $40,000 30% 33 37 $40,000-$79,999 48% 27 25 $80,000 or more 58% 20 22

Note: In this and succeeding tables, trend data prior to 1993 are based on all adults.

Increasing proportion express optimism about their economic fortunes next year

There is also somewhat greater optimism among Californians that their economic fortunes for the

coming year will improve. Four in ten (40%) expect to be financially better off next year, up from



30% who reported this in 2012 and 2013. Voters with annual incomes in excess of $80,000 are the

most likely subgroup to express optimism about their finances next year than those with lower

incomes.

Table 2

Personal financial expectations for next year (among registered voters)

Will be better off

No change/ not sure

Will be worse off

June 2014 40% 50 10 2013 30% 55 15 2012 30% 58 12 2011 25% 58 17 2010 30% 58 12 2009 24% 51 19 2008 22% 48 22 2007 32% 49 14 2005 35% 49 12 2004 38% 48 7 2003 36% 48 10 2002 41% 45 8 2001 32% 55 13 2000 44% 53 3 1999 41% 54 5 1998 46% 49 5 1997 40% 50 10 1996 35% 57 8 1995 34% 56 10 1994 40% 48 12 1993 37% 49 14 1992 29% 53 18 1991 30% 53 17 1990 38% 47 15 1989 38% 47 15 1988 40% 51 9 1987 47% 45 8 1986 52% 42 6 1985 50% 42 8 1984 51% 42 7 1981 35% 46 19 1979 25% 40 31 1978 37% 46 17 1977 35% 47 18 1976 37% 45 18 1974 33% 39 28 1973 41% 46 13 1971 37% 44 19 1970 34% 44 22 1966 43% 49 8 1961 48% 46 6

Household income (June 2014) Less than $40,000 37% 54 9 $40,000-$79,999 35% 54 11 $80,000 or more 46% 44 10



Continuing negative assessment of the overall California economy

Despite the improvement in voters’ evaluation of their own financial situation, more continue to

describe the overall California economy in negative rather than positive terms. At present, more than

twice as many say the state is in economic bad times (53%) as believe it is in good times (25%).

However, this is a less negative assessment than voters expressed in each of the past six years when

between 72% and 96% described the state as being in economic bad times.

Table 3

Perceived state of California's economy (among registered voters)

Bad times

In-between/ mixed

Good times

June 2014 53% 22 25 2013 72% 12 16 2012 88% 7 5 2011 91% 4 5 2010 93% 4 3 2009 96% 2 2 2008 86% 8 6 2007 52% 26 20 2005 49% 21 24 2004 53% 22 24 2003 75% 12 11 2002 56% 21 20 2001 22% 7 69 2000 13% 10 71 1999 11% 14 72 1998 15% 16 65 1997 42% 23 33 1996 57% 20 19 1995 72% 16 11 1994 81% 14 5 1993 91% 6 3 1992 93% 4 2 1991 85% 8 5 1990 47% 20 30 1989 24% 18 55 1988 21% 19 59 1987 22% 24 51 1986 15% 22 59 1985 19% 16 62 1984 22% 25 50 1983 77% 11 10 1982 60% 23 16 1981 54% 19 24 1980 56% 21 21 1979 41% 17 40 1978 26% 26 42

Note: Differences between 100% and the sum of each year's percentages equal the proportion with no opinion.



Differences in perceptions of the state’s economy across voter subgroups

While voters across all income categories are more likely to describe the state as being in economic

bad times than good times, there are significant differences in evaluations across subgroups of the

voting population.

For example, there are large partisan differences in perceptions of the overall economy, with

Republicans (68%) much more likely than Democrats (40%) to say California is in economic bad

times. Also, voters with lower incomes are more apt to describe the state in negative terms than

those with higher levels of income. Voters in the San Francisco Bay Area offer a more positive

assessment of the California economy than voters elsewhere, with as many saying they believe the

state is in economic good times as bad times.

Table 4

Perceptions of the California economy – by income and party registration (among registered voters)

Bad times

Mixed (volunteered)

Good times

Total registered voters 53% 22 25

Party registration

Democrats 40% 28 32 Republicans 68% 16 16 No party preference/others 57% 21 22

Household income

Less than $40,000 62% 22 16 $40,000-$79,999 52% 18 30 $80,000 or more 46% 23 31

Region

Los Angeles County 44% 25 31 Other Southern California 65% 19 16 Central Valley 63% 13 24 San Francisco Bay Area 35% 30 35 Other Northern California* 62% 10 28

*Small sample base

Two in three say jobs in their area are hard to find

Two in three voters (64%) say that jobs are difficult to find in the area where they live. This is three

times the proportion (21%) who maintains that jobs are plentiful in their region.

While more voters across all regions hold to this view, a somewhat smaller proportion of the residents

of the San Francisco Bay Area (49%) say jobs are difficult to find in their area. By contrast, lower

income Californians are more likely than others to believe jobs in their area are hard to find.



Table 5

Job opportunities in the area where you live (among registered voters)

Jobs difficult to find

Lots of some/few of others

(volunteered)

Plenty of jobs

available Don’t know

Statewide 64% 7 21 8

Region

Los Angeles County 67% 8 18 7 Other Southern California 65% 4 20 11 Central Valley 72% 7 15 6 San Francisco Bay Area 49% 9 33 9 Other Northern California* 81% 4 9 6

Household income

Less than $40,000 73% 4 17 6 $40,000-$79,999 59% 6 25 10 $80,000 or more 60% 8 22 10

* Small sample base

Half describe unemployment in the state as very serious

Half of the state’s voters (52%) believe unemployment in California is very serious, 36% say it is

somewhat serious and 9% feel it is not serious. While a generally negative assessment, the

proportion of voters terming unemployment as very serious has declined each year since 2010,

when a record high 89% of voters felt this way.



Table 6

Seriousness of unemployment in California (among registered voters)

Very serious

Somewhat serious

Not serious

June 2014 52% 36 9 2013 61% 34 4 2012 70% 25 4 2011 80% 17 2 2010 89% 10 1 2009 76% 20 4 2008 39% 42 15 2004 35% 43 19 2003 33% 52 12 2002 30% 48 18 1995 48% 44 7 1994 74% 22 3 1993 76% 22 2 1992 80% 18 2 1991 68% 27 4 1990 29% 40 28 1989 23% 35 39 1988 21% 40 36 1987 28% 45 25 1986 26% 50 22 1985 30% 43 24 1984 40% 45 14 1983 71% 24 5 1982 54% 36 9 1981 34% 45 18

Region (June 2014)

Los Angeles County 53% 38 6 Other Southern California 57% 31 8 Central Valley 49% 39 9 San Francisco Bay Area 43% 38 16 Other Northern California* 50% 35 11

(Differences between 100% and sum of percentages equal proportion with no opinion.)

– 30 –



Information About The Survey

Methodological Details

The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll completed June 5-22, 2014. The survey was conducted

among a random sample of 2,013 California adults, of whom 1,382 reported being registered to vote. In order

to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize respondent fatigue, the findings in this report are based on

a random subsample of 658 registered voters statewide.

To capture the diversity of the California adult population, the survey was administered in six languages and

dialects – English, Spanish, Cantonese, Mandarin, Vietnamese and Korean, depending on the preference of

the voter.

The sample was developed using dual frame random digit dial landline and cell phone listings covering the

state of California. For this survey, a total of 1,402 interviews were conducted via cell phone and 611 on a

landline or other type of phone. The combined landline and cell phone sample was weighted to match

demographic, geographic and voter registration estimates of the overall California adult population. The

weighting process also takes into account the higher probability of reaching respondents who receive calls on

both a landline and cell phone.

Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and

the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the subsample of

registered voters reported in this release is about +/- 4.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

The maximum sampling error estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling

distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at either tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to

10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys

of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to

minimize these other possible errors.

The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor.

The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public

opinion. The Poll receives funding from media subscribers, California foundations and independent not-for-

profit organizations, and from the University of California and California State University systems, who

receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary

research purposes.

Questions Asked

Would you say that you and your family are financially better off or worse off today than you were a year

ago?

Looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you will be better off financially, worse off, or just about

the same as now?

How would you generally describe economic conditions in California now? Would you say that

economically, California is in good times or bad times right now?

How serious a problem do you think unemployment is in California at this time? Is it very serious, somewhat

serious, not too serious, or not at all serious?

Thinking about the job opportunities where you live, would you say there are plenty of jobs available or are

jobs difficult to find?

Documents

Field Poll: Calif. Voters Say They're Financially Better Off