FGate DuocHauGiang DHG Model

ChannelsForecast2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Traditional ChannelDistributors220232250Retail Selling Points90000125000140000178000200000322102Modern ChannelMetro & SupermarketsComment:+ Focusing on developing channels, both traditional & modern channels.+ CAGR Retail Selling Points:2005-2010: 9,24%2010-2012: 19,5%2005-2012: 12,1%+ CAGR Distributors:2005-2012: 1,84%=> The slow-down CAGR distributors: matured. We forecast the period 2013-2017 CARG Distributors: 1% (263 @ the end of 2017).=> The company will maintain good relationships with both traditional &modern channels to promote products and develop selling network.=> Forecasted CARG Retail Selling Points for the period 2013-2017: 10% => @ the end 2017: 322102As the result, VNM can widespread its selling network through VN, from urban cities to rural areas to sell its products.

Key ActivitiesCow Herding2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Self-Owned' cows6,0006,7128,200
Linh. Tran Thi My: Linh. Tran Thi My:HSC report Jul1311,20014,20019,00026,000%y/y12%22%37%27%34%37%Raw fresh milk production volume (tons)13,46220,051
Linh. Tran Thi My: Linh. Tran Thi My:HSC report Jul 1336,69046,51862,24285,173Yield per head (tons)2.012.453.283.283.283.28%y/y22%34%0%-0%-0%Farmers's cows54,28861,000
Linh. Tran Thi My: Linh. Tran Thi My:HSC report Jul 1362,22063,46464,73466,028%y/y12%2%2%2%2%Raw fresh milk production volume (tons)130,538141,540151,589162,352154,599168,911Yield per head (tons)2.402.322.442.562.392.56%y/y-4%5%5%-7%7%MCow herds59,90061,00069,20073,42077,66483,73492,028%y/y13%6%6%8%10%Raw fresh milk production volume (tons)144,000161,591188,279208,870216,841254,084Subsidiaries & AssociatesYield per head (tons)2.362.342.562.692.592.76%y/y-1%10%5%-4%7%

VNM liquid milk production volume (tons)356,080410,313473,438535,284592,006642,001% self-owned3.8%4.9%7.7%8.7%10.5%13.3%% farmers36.7%34.5%32.0%30.3%26.1%26.3%% total domestic supply40.4%39.4%39.8%39.0%36.6%39.6%% import59.6%60.6%60.2%61.0%63.4%60.4%

# of Cow herds at farmers4,9426,7128,124Volume of Milk self-produced ('000 liter)8,33012,848
Linh. Tran Thi My: Linh. Tran Thi My:AR 201220,050Volume of Milk bought from farmers ('000 liter)120,230118,510141,540Purchased price from farmers (VND/l)7,98010,76211,021

Factories12 nh my, cng sut, sn xut ci g, CAPEX, plan, utilization, type of products, location.No.NameLocationProductsCapacity (per year)TargetCapexTimeUtilizationNote1Tien Son Milk Factory Tien Du, Bac NinhCondensed milk85 million cansNorthStage 1: 253 billion VND (April 2008)Apr-08100%?Yoghurt360 million cans 36 million liters Stage 2: 380 billion VND (Oct 2010)Oct-10100%?Liquid milk120 million liters Others (soy milk, cream etc.)56 million liters 2Vietnam Powdered Milk Factory(Dielac 2 Project)Thuan An, Binh DuongPowdered milk54000 tonsChildren1900 billion VND(100 million USD)Apr-13????Powdered milk contributes: + 70% exports revenue.+ 50% for exports.- New factory: 4x current capacity, meet 80% market share.- Operating state date: 30/4/20133Truong Tho Milk FactoryThu Duc, HCMCondensed milkNA300 billion VND100%D tnh trong nm 2013, tng doanh s xut khu ca Vinamilk l 230 triu trong sa bt chim gn 80%, tng ng vi hn 33.000 tn.Liquid milk=> 2013 sa bt xut khu: 184 triu , tng ng 33000 tonsYoghurt=> 5576$/ton4Dielac Milk FactoryBien Hoa, Dong NaiPowdered milk13500 tonsChildren232 billion VNDNA100%Powdered milk: 30% market share.Dielac 1 operates @ full capacity, Dielac 2 will helps VNM win market share 5%-10% per year (2 & 4)- ng lc tng revenue l nh g: gi hay sn lng? Ci no l ch lc?-New Powder FactoryUtilization59%62%65%68%71%5Thong Nhat FactoryThu Duc, HCMCondensed milk142 million liters (all)182 billion VNDNA100%18.2%CAGR sales to 2017Liquid milk67500total domestic demandMi nm gain capacity 2.5% t 67500 tons ca th trng thi im hin ti: Domestic201220132014201520162017Mc tiu ca ngnhYoghurt1,688Supply1350015,18816,87518,56320,25021,938ch t 6-8% cho giai 6Binh Dinh Milk FactoryQuy Nhon, Binh DinhLiquid milk77 billion VNDNA100%Helps will the center market (liquid milk & yoghurt)67500total VNM powder capacitygrowthon 2015, v ti 2020Yoghurt10.2%=> ph hp vi mc tiu.7Da Nang Milk FactoryDa NangLiquid milk421 billion VNDAlmost finishedD phng sn lng sa bt trong nc tng 13.555% giai on 2013-2017.YoghurtGi tng 10-15%.8Nghe An Milk FactoryNghe AnLiquid milk202 billion VNDNA100%Export52,31350,62548,93847,25045,563YoghurtPowder milkTarget3000030000300003000030000(50% sa bt t nh my mi xut khu)9Saigon Milk FactoryDist. 12, HCMLiquid milk71 billion VNDNA100%Market share gain: 5 - 10% per year => adjustUtilization67%69%72%74%77%YoghurtExport: growth?Total45,18846,87548,56350,25051,93810Can Tho Milk FactoryBinh Thuy, Can ThoLiquid milk87 billion VNDNA100%If domestic market share gains 5% per year, in 2017, VNM will maintain good 50:50 powder milk between domestic consumption & export.Yoghurt; exports grows at 10% per year => okNeu xuat khau tang tu muc 30000 den 45563 nhu AD43, thi toc do tang xuat khau sua bot ve san luong la:11Beverages FactoryBen Cat, Binh DuongBeverages (Vfresh, Soy milk)36k bottles per hourNANANAprice growth 11%(316 million bottles)=> powdered milk CAGR growth=> Xk sua bot tang truong moi nam la:0.22124.5%(Gi sa bt VNM ch bng 29-47% so vi gi sa ngoi)Capacity Growth3.5%12Vietnam Milk FactoryMy Phuoc, Binh DuongLiquid milk400 million liters, in 2016 will add 400 mn litres 2349 billion VND(110 million USD)Stage 1: doneNA- Helps win market shareliquid milk. Current: 50% market share.- Capacity: Stage 1: 50% total current. Stage 2: 100% the rest of 9 factories.Forecast liquid milk growth:- Tiu th sa 2012: 15l- Tiu th sa 2015 (F): 21l- Tiu th sa 2020 (F): 27l=> CAGR 2012-2015:=> CAGR 2012-2020:Price Growth10.0%Total growth13.9%Domestic growth21.2%Cong suat hien tai: 800 trieu lit0.1186889421Conclusion: - VNM will maintain its advantage to win market share in domestic market.13Lam SonLam Son, Thanh HoaLiquid milk49.28 million litersUnder expansion plan, to serve the centered marketyoghurt156 million yogurt box76.3%CAGR gi sa bt 6 nm qua.=> moderate growth for powder milk (VNM: mass market & rural market).skewed to foreign brands.10.8%CAGR gi sa nc 6 nm qua.0.0582673680.0745699318GDP per capital CAGR 2002-2010202020203,215GDP per capita201220121,555GDP per capital CAGR 2012-20209.5%Powder milk price growth trend in line with GDP, higher (due to the less elasticity of demand curve)Price CARGForecast price growth10-15%(in line with CEO to win market share) and aim to mid-end segments.(Liquild milk, condensed milk & yoghurt)Sn lng sa ti nguyn liu trong nc tng trng trong qu kh tng trng khong 11,15%/nm giai on 2009-2012.201220132014201520162017Forecast cung ton quc tng trng giai on 2013-2017 l 10%/nmSn xut trong nc382000420,200462,220508,442559,286615,215VNM thu mua 40%, cn li l nhp khu 60%Growth10%10%10%10%10%Domestic supply for VNM168,080184,888203,377223,714246,086%40%40%40%40%40%Import252,120277,332305,065335,572369,129%60%60%60%60%60%Total Demand420,200462,220508,442559,286615,215=> Total demand by VNM is approximately equal to total domestic supply=> Yoghurt & liquild milk will grow at the same pace (yoghurt: saturated market, but VNM restructures its factories to focus on seperately liquild milk, yoghurt, powdered milk; liquid: 50% market share, grow capacity 10%/year)21% per year

ValSumValuation Statistics - DHGDHG - Range of Valuation Multiples / PremiumsDHG - Implied Per Share Value Range

25th75thApplicable25th75thMinimumPecentileMedianPecentileMaximumDHGMinimumPecentileMedianPecentileMaximumVNM StatisticsMethodology NameMultipleMultipleMultipleMultipleMultipleFigureMultipleMultipleMultipleMultipleMultipleNet Debt (VND mn)(439,612)Public Company Comparables:Trailing EV / Revenue:0.4 x0.6 x0.9 x1.0 x2.3 x3,293,791[$VND] 28,643[$VND] 39,104[$VND] 49,564[$VND] 57,426[$VND] 124,988Shares Outstanding (mn)65Trailing EV / EBITDA:3.8 x4.6 x5.4 x6.4 x12.1 x544,94038,31045,06651,82159,989107,448Trailing P/E:7.4 x10.3 x13.2 x14.1 x17.5 x585,20766,32892,274118,220125,895156,681

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis:15.21% - 19.21% Discount Rate, 7.0x-9.0x Terminal Multiple_FCFE[$VND] 114,644[$VND] 128,246[$VND] 138,702[$VND] 144,827[$VND] 145,98715.21% - 19.21% Discount Rate, 7.0x-9.0x Terminal Multiple_FCFF[$VND] 132,284[$VND] 135,941[$VND] 140,809[$VND] 146,945[$VND] 153,563Units: VND millionValuation SummaryValuation Date:26/02/2013Unit:1,000,000Company Name:DHGCurrency:VNDShare Price:131,000

Basic Shares Outstanding:65,366,299Basic Equity Value (VNDm)8,562,985Less: Cash & equivalent(613,287)Plus: Debt127,031Plus: Minorities Interest18,055.00Enterprise Value8,094,784

Valuation MultiplesHistoricalForecast2011A2012A2013A2014E2015E2016E2017E2018EEV / Revenue:3.252.762.351.991.691.441.221.04EV / EBIT:15.6213.8912.0810.218.647.306.175.22EV / EBITDA:17.4215.6914.1112.3910.258.517.085.91

Equity Value / FCF:91.4919.14(33.80)17.029.8911.017.054.49P / E:20.6117.6217.5012.6210.068.116.615.66P / BV:6.205.074.363.552.842.251.781.43

Valuation Graph

Min.25thMedian75thMaxMin Point25 PointMed Point75 PointMax Point15.21% - 19.21% Discount Rate, 7.0x-9.0x Terminal Multiple_FCFE114,644128,246138,702144,827145,987114,64413,60310,4566,1251,16015.21% - 19.21% Discount Rate, 7.0x-9.0x Terminal Multiple_FCFF132,284135,941140,809146,945153,563132,2843,6574,8686,1366,618Trailing P/E:66,32892,274118,220125,895156,68166,32825,94625,9467,67430,786Trailing EV / EBITDA:38,31045,06651,82159,989107,44838,3106,7566,7568,16747,459Trailing EV / Revenue:28,64339,10449,56457,426124,98828,64310,46110,4617,86267,562

ISCircular Break?21YesDHG Income Statement2NoUnits: VND million, except per share dataHistoricalProjected2006A2007A2008A2009A2010A2011A2012A2013A2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E9M 2012A9M 2013ATrailing IS

Gross Revenue873,0721,285,2101,518,4371,770,3452,052,2482,510,8252,949,2862,039,0542,899,5053,809,737Net Revenue868,1921,269,2801,485,4641,746,0222,034,5252,490,8802,931,0763,449,0654,058,5944,775,8425,619,8446,613,0007,781,6702,025,0152,387,7293,293,791COGS
FGate: FGate:Chua tru chi phi khau hao. Check Cash Flow de tinh chi phi khau hao.402,747581,535673,106801,109986,5541,244,5991,441,2081,697,2481,997,1912,350,1412,765,4653,254,1873,829,2771,034,1731,283,1861,690,221Gross profit465,445687,745812,358944,9131,047,9711,246,2811,489,8681,751,8172,061,4042,425,7012,854,3793,358,8143,952,394990,8411,104,5441,603,570Selling expenses311,953466,083516,330404,027476,166549,215697,583838,688986,9041,161,3131,366,5431,608,0431,892,222446,585496,803747,801G & A expenses55,88158,447101,912110,765130,383178,757209,547243,130282,038327,105379,292439,709509,634153,261190,870247,157EBITDA97,611163,215194,116430,121441,422518,309582,738669,999792,462937,2841,108,5431,311,0621,550,538390,996416,870608,612Deprication & Amortization
FGate: FGate:Chi ph khu hao ni chung, cha tch ra chi ph khu hao cc loi, v DHG khng bo co chi tit theo kiu mnh trnh by.

13,17023,85628,52029,77941,46353,59766,76896,393139,391147,406156,822167,887180,89147,68844,59363,672Operating Profit84,441139,359165,596400,342399,959464,712515,970573,606653,071789,878951,7211,143,1751,369,648343,307372,277544,940Financial income5145,78922,32931,29540,56648,89542,17752,41855,83373,912106,462158,348220,65432,27236,95946,864Interest income2323,02316,39127,26236,23841,90839,10345,76348,01864,82395,766145,762205,844Investment income0.01,4481,8881,396454489422425484464546643756Other financial income2821,3184,0502,6373,8746,4982,6536,2297,3308,62610,15011,94414,054Financial expense11,21417,29138,49523,5973,4087,1834,4538,61935,60415,8954,3035,0635,9583,8305,8636,486 Interest expense10,70515,3945,2163,3892,0112,0392,61221,23332,49712,2380.00.002,1041,7452,253Change in provision for investment0.00.08,4780.00.00.00.0(16,500)(1,465)(1,724)(2,029)(2,388)(2,810)0.0Other financial expense5091,89724,80120,2081,3975,1441,8413,8864,5735,3816,3327,4518,7681,841Gain/Loss from associates/joint ventures142(104)(3,982)(10,026)(188)Net other income149454(4,547)1,6531,010(5,457)31,281
FGate: FGate:bao gm 1 khon hon nhp d phng tr cp mt vic tr gi hn 29 t34,98041,16248,43656,99667,06878,9211,627135,660165,314Earning before tax73,890128,311145,025409,590434,145490,942584,787652,385714,461896,3321,110,8761,363,5281,663,265373,376539,033750,632Income tax paid0.013,16618,67346,96851,23472,90493,826163,09635,72344,81755,54468,176149,69459,168132,228166,886Deffered tax0.00.03,642(281)425(1,724)(331)5392,3301,461Net income73,890115,144129,994362,340383,335419,762491,292489,289678,738851,5151,055,3321,295,3521,513,571314,746409,135585,207Minority Interest0.00.01,1325,2702,1734,2365,3714,3472,9333,957

Net income attributable to Equity Shareholders73,890115,144128,862357,071381,162415,527485,921489,289678,738851,5151,055,3321,295,3521,513,571310,399406,202581,2503,6996,1827,2748,56010,07211,853

Allocation of D&A13,17023,85628,52029,77941,46353,59766,76847,68844,59363,672COGS19,24321,33921,33729,43937,51846,0705,860(1,489)38,721%Total81%75%72%71%
FGate: FGate:Assumption70%
FGate: FGate:Assumption

Selling expense3,2415,1755,5067,4639,64812,01812,97612,96312,005%Total14%18%18%18%

G&A expense1,3722,0062,9364,5616,4328,68028,85233,12012,947%Total6%7%10%11%

Other incomeGain/Loss from fixed asset disposals(130)184(44)151,3951,7601,554Income from disposals7767923071236,1105,4884,688Remaining cost of assets9076093511084,7153,7283,134Other income/expense279270(4,502)1,639(385)(7,217)29,727

OPERATING ASSUMPTIONSRevenue Growth46.2%17.0%17.5%16.5%22.4%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.9%Gross margin53.6%54.2%54.7%54.1%51.5%50.0%50.8%50.8%50.8%50.8%50.8%50.8%50.8%48.9%46.3%48.7%Selling expense (% revenue)35.9%36.7%34.8%23.1%23.4%22.0%23.8%24.3%
FGate: FGate:The company will try to restructure selling expense by selling quota setting on sales staff, cut others off & speed up spending on advertising (3rd parties expense) as sales grow.24.3%24.3%24.3%24.3%24.3%22.1%20.8%22.7%Admin expense (% revenue)6.4%4.6%6.9%6.3%6.4%7.2%7.1%7.0%
FGate: FGate:Expect admin expense slightly decreases yoy 0.1% & the company ttotally can meet this requirment.6.9%6.8%6.7%6.6%6.5%7.6%8.0%7.5%Operating margin9.7%11.0%11.1%22.9%19.7%18.7%17.6%19.4%19.5%19.6%19.7%19.8%19.9%19.3%17.5%18.5%EBITDA Margin11.2%12.9%13.1%24.6%21.7%20.8%19.9%16.6%16.1%16.5%16.9%17.3%17.6%17.0%15.6%16.5%Other financial income (% revenue)0.1%0.5%1.5%1.8%0.2%0.3%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%1.6%1.5%1.4%Other financial expense (% revenue)1.3%1.4%2.6%1.4%0.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%Net Other income excl disposal (% revenue)0%0.0%-0.3%0.1%-0.0%-0.3%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%0.1%5.7%5.0%Effective tax rate0%10%15%11%12%14%16%25%5%5%5%5%9%16%25%22%Net margin %8.5%9.1%8.8%20.8%18.8%16.9%16.8%14.2%16.7%17.8%18.8%19.6%19.5%15.5%17.1%17.8%Net margin Growth56%13%179%6%10%17%-0%39%25%24%23%17%30%% Minority Interest/Net income0%0%0.9%1.5%0.6%1.0%1.1%1%1%1%1%1%1%

Effective cash interest rate6%8%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%Investment yield1%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%Debt interest rate5%12%13%10%10%10%10%10%10%

DETAILED SALES FORECASTCOSTS ANALYSISCost breakdown2010A2011A2012A2013201420152016201720189M 2012A9M 2013AMaterials & sub-materials921,7061,243,9061,276,8438,317,1268,500,295Labor456,355584,526663,590343,540452,587Depreciation41,46353,59766,768249,082329,321Buy from 3rd parties259,364305,673381,378432,583537,837Other costs105,97996,798121,332803,4421,155,331TOTAL COST1,784,8672,284,5012,509,91010,145,77410,975,371Cost as % of total costMaterials & sub-materials52%54%51%82.0%77.4%Labor26%26%26%3.4%4.1%Depreciation2%2%3%2.5%3.0%Buy from 3rd parties15%13%15%4.3%4.9%Other costs6%4%5%7.9%10.5%

Cost as % of revenueMaterials & sub-materials45.3%49.9%43.6%410.7%356.0%Labor22.4%23.5%22.6%17.0%19.0%Depreciation2.0%2.2%2.3%12.3%13.8%Buy from 3rd parties12.7%12.3%13.0%21.4%22.5%Other costs5.2%3.9%4.1%39.7%48.4%Total87.7%91.7%85.6%501.0%459.7%

WORKING DETAILS

1. PRODUCTION & SALES FORECAST

Capacity Value (VND bn')823137715611899230330103410380046265559668080289648Old Capacity (million units)2272301928722976334040734175
FGate: FGate:Full Capacity417541754175417541754175New Capacity (million units)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0395
FGate: FGate:Nh my mi 4nonbetalactam (cng sut 4 t n v sn phm) a vo s dng t thng 7/2013395 triu l k hoch ca cty.948
FGate: FGate:Tnh t k hoch 2013 sn xut trong 5 thng cui nm. Gi nh 12 thng 2014 khi nh my mi hon ton a vo sn xut => ti u nh cng sut lp trong 20131,4952,1002,7703,511Total Capacity (million units)2272301928722976334040734175457051235,6706,2756,9457,686 Absolute Change747-147104364733102395553547605670741=> S tuyt i thay i trong d phng nm trong kh nng hp th ca th trng trong qu kh.Old Capacity 2006-2012 CAGR0.1067291752New Capacity 2014-2018 CAGR39%Total Capacity Growth9%12%11%11%11%11%Old Utilization Rate57%75%72%74%84%102%104%104%104%104%104%104%104%New Utilization Rate10%
FGate: FGate:4000 (triu) l cng sut ti a ca nh my mi24%
FGate: FGate:Cng sut gp 12/5 so vi nm 2013 (t nh my mi): ASSSUMPTION37%
FGate: FGate:Assumption mi nm tng thm 3% ti u cng sut nh my mi52%69%88%Capacity Value Growth67%13%22%21%31%13%11%22%20%20%20%20%Capacity Growth33%-5%4%12%22%3%9%12%11%11%11%11%Value Growth26%19%17%8%7%11%9%9%9%9%9%9%Sales Growth46.2%17%18%17%22%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%Cng ty phn u t doanh thu 8000 t ng vo nm 2018Price Growth3%
FGate: FGate:2013 Annual Report / page 416%6%6%6%6%6%Volume (account for Revenue) Growth8%
FGate: FGate:Annual Report 2013: Page 4111%11%11%11%11%11%Other6%
FGate: FGate:Annual Report 2013: Do ti cu trc danh mc sn phm0%0%0%0%0%0%%Sales/Capacity Value86%91%88%86%84%82%81%

CROSSCHECK BY TOP-DOWN APPROACHTotal Market Value (USD bn)
FGate: FGate:Report ca B Cng thng1.42.4CAGR14%Assump market value will growth 12% yoy=> Total Market Value by 2018 (USD bn):4.74Assump USD/VND by 201825000Total market value (VND bn)118,429% Market share (DHG)7%, of which value is: 7,782billion VND

=> CONCLUSTION- Company Plan: ok & can be met (current market share: 8-10%). The hardest part is how the company develops new strategy to cooperate & outsource with new partners (domestic & foreigner) to absorb the new capacity & maintain the market leader in domestic medicine production.

2. SELLING EXPENSE FORECASTSelling Staff Expense106,578233,364266,859294,617304,912358,797422,205496,818584,617687,933809,5063rd parties expense (Advertising)324,08389,484143,496153,374297,968350,626412,590238,911571,303672,266791,071Others90,84486,68573,27577,664109,852129,265152,11090,911210,623247,845291,644Total521,505409,533483,630525,655712,732838,688986,904282,3891,366,5431,608,0431,892,222% Total Selling ExpenseSelling Staff Expense20%57%55%56%43%3rd parties expense62%22%30%29%42%Others17%21%15%15%15%

% RevenueSelling Staff Expense13%13%12%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%3rd parties expense5%7%6%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%Others5%4%3%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%Total 23%24%21%24%24%24%24%24%24%24%No. of selling staff6407989679859461134
FGate: FGate:Source: Annual Report 2012 - page 381,2661,4121,5761,7591,9632,191Revenue per staff1,9831,8611,8062,0662,6332,5852,7252,8743,0303,1953,3693,552Revenue per staff growth CAGR5%
FGate: FGate:2007-20125%5%5%5%5%5%Selling expense per staff134241271311269284299315332350369Selling expense per staff growth19%
FGate: FGate:2009-20125%5%5%5%5%5%

Selling Staff Expense if:Assump: Selling Staff Expense accounts for 10% on Sale.358,797422,205496,818584,617687,933809,506Assump: Selling Staff Expense based on No. of selling staff assumption358,797422,205496,818584,617687,933809,506Difference0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

3. EFFECTIVE TAX RATE%Old Capacity25%25%25%25%25%25%Weighting
FGate: FGate:Chuyn v sn xut hng dc phm nh my mi, cn nh my c dng sn xut dc liu, thc phm chc nng v.v...100%20%20%20%20%20%%New Capacity0%0%0%0%5%Weighting80%80%80%80%80%Total 25.00%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%9.0%

BS

DHG Balance SheetUnits: VND million, except per share dataHistoricalProjected2006A2007A2008A2009A2010A2011A2012A2013A2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E9M 2013ACurrent assetCash and Cash Equivalents35,002134,952211,742584,129642,519467,084718,975669,119787,3671,178,8311,725,9252,695,3153,548,330464,323Short term investment (Excl bank deposits)0.051,9552,26316,0370.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0220,000Provision for ST investment0.00.0(1,478)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Account receivables154,257235,439216,770250,455306,720340,586449,467495,482638,700722,088909,9771,046,7471,298,414427,203Provision for receivables(500)0.0(18,703)(3,438)(6,225)(2,853)(5,729)(6,841)(8,818)(9,969)(12,563)(14,452)(17,926)(6,469)Advance to suppliers11,2632,56228,78826,40828,19479,03384,26187,23098,253119,424135,935165,438188,862120,178Inventories121,853230,279308,236311,577350,125519,861517,870664,418744,030918,1831,026,0191,268,7531,431,509748,409Provision for Inventory deduction(500)0.00.0(4,845)(3,026)(4,670)(6,029)(6,482)(7,258)(8,957)(10,009)(12,377)(13,965)(5,960)ST prepayment2,9349807705341,2831,4328191,7072,0092,3642,7823,2733,8522,801Other current assets5,24122,62135,13831,612122,44490,21958,025133,593157,202184,983217,674256,142301,40891,985Total current assets329,550678,787783,5271,212,4681,442,0341,490,6921,817,6602,038,2262,411,4853,106,9473,995,7405,408,8396,740,4852,062,468

Long term assetsLong term collection200114720.00.00.00.00.0Long term investment1,60935,67573,83935,76944,49421,98721,16537,26529,30734,48640,58147,75356,19137,265Provision for LT Investment0.00.0(7,000)(4,514)(4,515)(4,514)(4,514)(21,014)(22,479)(24,204)(26,233)(28,620)(31,430)(21,014)
FGate: FGate:Tng d phng v thay i 1 khon u t tr gi hn 16 t ng t u t lin kt sang u t di hn khc (thc cht net long term investment khng i)Tangible Fixed Assets81,120111,295106,799118,833167,841255,331279,742931,897863,755799,906741,108688,254642,395277,347Historical price115,899168,878191,418231,889310,199443,231522,6201,269,0111,337,9931,419,1651,514,6811,627,0781,759,338549,271Accum depreciation(34,779)(57,583)(84,619)(113,056)(142,358)(187,900)(242,878)(337,114)(474,238)(619,259)(773,574)(938,825)(1,116,944)(271,923)Intangible Fixed Assets62,047105,272100,684112,920127,878157,377167,001173,591180,507187,766195,383203,378211,770177,396Historical price62,047105,546101,089113,635131,895163,250174,924183,670192,853202,496212,621223,252234,414188,058Accum Amortization0.0(274)(405)(715)(4,017)(5,872)(7,922)(10,079)(12,346)(14,730)(17,237)(19,873)(22,645)(10,662)Financial Leased Assets0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Historical price0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Accum Amortization0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Property Invesment0.00.00.00.06,4570.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Historical price0.00.07,7850.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Accum Amortization0.00.0(1,328)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Construction in progress4,97512,2142,0035,2627,72046,74670,39168,98181,17295,517112,397132,260155,633216,867Goodwill0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0LT prepayment3,3460.016,73536,18922,43020,44619,34829,70134,95041,12748,39556,94767,01117,388Deferred tax assets3,6713,4143,7855,5105,8418,1718,1718,1718,1718,1718,1718,171Other long-term assets0.01,3011,4551,6311,6102,1311,6302,5332,9813,5074,1274,8565,7152,489Total long term assets153,297265,871298,255309,504377,701505,015560,6051,231,1271,178,3641,146,2761,123,9291,112,9991,115,456715,909

Total assets482,847944,6581,081,7821,521,9721,819,7351,995,7072,378,2653,269,3523,589,8494,253,2225,119,6696,521,8387,855,9412,778,377

Current liabilitiesShort term debt167,87043,4308,45573,98012,80221,11619,485405,172244,7650.00.00.0024,711Account payable18,47855,64267,74671,35386,291123,61973,734196,274102,773256,989157,681344,514228,274258,683Deferred revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Tax payable35715,52118,86335,63440,01928,29833,52068,00080,01794,158110,798130,379153,42047,075Accrued expenses73,440149,042248,518283,984269,414291,890399,314443,595521,988614,236722,785850,5181,000,825387,751Bonus funds9,13515,829(5,199)7,65829,48944,54862,65970,73681,94095,996113,417134,800159,78578,768Other current liabilities30,98339,34923,883(21,743)33,54134,55564,82060,38771,05983,61698,393115,782136,24375,691Total current liabilities300,263318,813362,265450,865471,556544,024653,5321,244,1641,102,5431,144,9961,203,0751,575,9931,678,546872,679

Long term liabiltiesLong term debt0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Other long term liabilities21,27881415,19352,94259,14158,22421,26360,55075,24593,243115,253142,129174,90545,779Total long term liabiltities21,27881415,19352,94259,14158,22421,26360,55075,24593,243115,253142,129174,90545,779

Total liabilities321,541319,627377,458503,807530,697602,248674,7951,304,7151,177,7881,238,2391,318,3271,718,1221,853,451918,458

Shareholder equityOwner investment capital80,000200,000200,000266,630269,130651,764653,764653,764653,764653,764653,764653,764653,764653,764Share capital surplus0.0378,761378,761378,761378,7610.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Difference in currency0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Retained earnings16,9131,21962,247330,992364,342377,313476,512608,029851,8311,199,2991,669,0572,282,8273,027,528421,566Investment and development fund52,59820,63938,4614,658204,329286,384491,137637,924841,5451,097,0001,413,5991,802,2052,256,276701,397Financial reserve fund11,79521,96221,96229,74564,21566,54266,76265,37665,37665,37665,37665,37665,37666,930Other funds0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Treasury stock0.00.0(293)(410)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)Total shareholder equity161,306622,581701,1391,010,3761,280,3221,381,5471,687,7191,964,6382,412,0613,014,9833,801,3414,803,7176,002,4891,843,201Minority Interest0.02,4503,1857,7908,71611,91115,7500.00.00.00.00.00.016,718

Total liabilities and owner equity482,847944,6591,081,7821,521,9731,819,7351,995,7072,378,2653,269,3523,589,8494,253,2225,119,6696,521,8387,855,9412,778,377

Check balance0.01(0)00(0)(0)0.00.00.00.00.00.0-0

ASSUMPTIONSBalance Sheet2006A2007A2008A2009A2010A2011A2012A2013A2014E2015E2016E2017E2018EWORKING CAPITALNet working capital days175147172158144.3147.9155.6150.4153.4155.1155.0156.5157.5Account Receivable Days64.8556.0355.5648.8450.047.449.250.0
FGate: FGate:iu chnh khon phi thu v mc gn ging qu kh. C th trong thi gian ti, ngy phi thu s cn gim v tnh hnh cnh trnh & sales y ra nhiu ngoi th trng. Ngy phi thu s tng ln 1 ngy cho mi nm51.052.053.054.055.0Inventory Days110111146141122.4127.6131.4127.1128.7129.1128.3128.7128.7Account payable days20303228.127.125.026.726.326.026.326.226.2Working capital turnoverReceivable turnover5.636.516.577.477.307.707.427.37.27.06.96.86.6Inventory turnover3.313.302.502.592.982.862.782.92.82.82.82.82.8Payable turnover18.6212.1711.5713.0113.4814.5913.713.914.013.913.913.9Purchases689,961751,064804,4491,025,1031,414,3341,439,2171,843,7962,076,8032,524,2942,873,3013,496,9203,992,0331,513,725

Other BS AssumptionsCash as % Revenue4%11%14%33%31.6%18.8%24.5%19.4%19.4%19.4%19.4%19.4%19.4%19.4%Short-term Investment as % Rev0%4%0%1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%9.2%Reserve for ST investment (% Investment)ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Reserve for receivables (% Receivable)-2.0%-0.8%-1.3%-1.4%-1.4%-1.4%-1.4%-1.4%-1.4%-1.5%Reserve for inventory (% Inventory)-0.9%-0.9%-1.2%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-0.8%Advance to suppliers (% Purchase)2.8%5.6%5.9%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%7.9%ST prepayment (% Rev)0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%Other Current Assets % of Rev1%2%2%2%6.0%3.6%2.0%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%Long term Investments as % Rev0%3%5%2%2.2%-0.2%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%1.6%Reserve for LT investment (% Investment)-10.1%-20.5%-21.3%-56.4%
FGate: FGate:tng d phng v chuyn i 1 khon u t t u t lin kt sang u t di hn khc tr gi gn 17 t ng-5.0%-5.0%-5.0%-5.0%-5.0%-56.4%Other assets as % of Rev0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%LT prepayment as % Rev1.1%0.8%0.7%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.7%

Deferred revenue as % Rev0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Accrued expenses as % Rev13.2%11.7%13.6%12.9%12.9%12.9%12.9%12.9%12.9%16.2%Other Current Liabilities % of COGS8%7%4%-3%3.4%2.8%4.5%
FGate: FGate:iu chnh cho khon bt thng3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%6%Other liabilities as % COGS2.3%6.6%6.0%4.7%1.5%3.6%3.8%4.0%4.2%4.4%4.6%3.6%Tax payable as % Rev2.0%1.1%1.1%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Cash Flow Statement2006A2007A2008A2009A2010A2011A2012A2013A2014E2015E2016E2017E2018EDividend Payout Ratio30%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%Transfer to funds (% NPAT)Investment & development Fund20%42%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%Financial reserve1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Bonus fund14%11%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%

Bonus paid-out (% of profit)9.9%6.8%8.3%8.3%8.3%8.3%8.3%8.3%

CF

CASH FLOW STATEMENTDHG Cash Flow StatementINDIRECT METHODUnits: VND millionCOMPANY REPORTUnits: VND million, except per share dataHistoricalProjected2010A2011A2012A2006A2007A2008A2009A2010A2011A2012A2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E

Profit before tax4,251,2074,978,9926,929,668Profit before tax490,942584,787652,385714,461896,3321,110,8761,363,5281,663,265Plus depreciation & amortization290,131414,590535,452Plus Depreciation & amortization51,86166,76896,393139,391147,406156,822167,887180,891Minus reserve provisions(3,795)46,247(75,029)Minus reserve provisions(1,730)4,23618,0654,2194,5745,6756,6447,872Unrealized FX loss(42,641)7,60623,750Minus Unrealized FX gain/lossProfit/Loss from investment activities6079,24012,177(Gain)/loss from investment activities8,4791680.0Income from interest/dividend(275,493)(492,527)(362,908)(Income) from interest/dividend(42,397)(39,524)(46,189)(48,503)(65,287)(96,312)(146,405)(206,600)Gain from disposal fixed asset(334,207)22,44920,674Gain/Loss from disposal of fixed asset(1,760)(1,554)Plus interest expense after tax6,17213,9333,115Plus interest expense2,0392,61221,23332,49712,2380.00.00

Cash flow Before Changes in Working Capital3,891,9815,000,5307,086,899Cash Flow Before Change in Working Capital507,434617,491741,887842,065995,2631,177,0611,391,6541,645,427Minus increase in A/R(319,292)(1,105,678)(177,764)(Inc)/Dec in A/R(33,866)(108,881)(46,015)(143,218)(83,387)(187,889)(136,770)(251,668)Minus increase in Inventory(1,110,497)(1,021,809)(273,492)(Inc)/Dec in Inventory(169,736)1,991(146,548)(79,612)(174,153)(107,836)(242,734)(162,756)Minus increase in Prepaid Expenses(14,275)(28,541)(18,320)(Inc)/Dec in Prepaid Expenses1,8361,711(11,242)(5,551)(6,532)(7,686)(9,044)(10,642)(Inc)/Dec in Other Current Assets(18,614)30,805(78,537)(34,632)(48,952)(49,202)(67,971)(68,690)Plus increase in A/P367,932703,897268,728Inc/(Dec) in A/P37,328(49,885)122,540(93,501)154,216(99,308)186,833(116,240)Inc/(Dec) in Other Current Liabilities11,768142,91258,578101,082118,946139,967164,702193,809Change in Working Capital(171,284)18,653(101,224)(255,432)(39,862)(311,955)(104,984)(416,187)Interest payment(5,034)(14,786)(3,115)Interest payment(2,039)(2,612)(21,233)(32,497)(12,238)0.00.0(0)Tax payment(548,573)(793,481)(1,073,342)Tax payment(72,904)(93,826)(165,427)(35,723)(44,817)(55,544)(68,176)(149,694)Plus others (Including: Tax paid)(243,468)(328,963)(515,027)Other Incomes/(Losses)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Cash flows from operating activities2,018,7742,411,1695,294,568Cash Flow From Operating Activities261,207539,706454,004518,414898,346809,5631,218,4941,079,546

Cashflow from Investing ActivitiesCashflow from Investing ActivitiesCapital Expenditure(1,432,288)(1,767,206)(3,133,999)Capital Expenditure(210,224)(131,455)(753,727)(90,355)(105,160)(122,522)(142,891)(166,796)Including: Including: Change in Tangible Fixed AssetsChange in Tangible Fixed Assets(56,021)(32,310)(746,391)(68,981)(81,172)(95,517)(112,397)(132,260)Change in Intangible Fixed AssetsChange in Intangible Fixed Assets(36,227)(14,905)(8,746)(9,183)(9,643)(10,125)(10,631)(11,163)Change in Construction in ProgressChange in Construction in Progress(125,761)(84,240)1,410(12,191)(14,345)(16,880)(19,863)(23,373)SubtotalChanges in properties investment7,7850.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Income from Fixed asset disposals690,01547,13416,830Income from Fixed asset disposals5,4884,688Changes in ST-LT Financial Investments
Linh. Tran Thi My: Linh. Tran Thi My:not include ST deposit(483,226)83,162308,114Changes in ST-LT Financial Investments49,008822(16,100)7,958(5,179)(6,095)(7,172)(8,439)Interest, dividends, shared profit from investment(36,928)472,509372,293Interest, dividends, shared profit from investment33,91839,35746,18948,50365,28796,312146,405206,600Changes in other LT assetsChanges in other LT assets(521)501(903)(448)(527)(620)(729)(858)

Cash flow from investment activities(1,262,426)(1,164,401)(2,436,761)Cash Flow from Investment Activities(122,332)(86,087)(724,541)(34,342)(45,579)(32,924)(4,387)30,507

Cashflow from Financing ActivitiesCashflow from Financing ActivitiesIncrease / (Pay-off) of ST loans967,076624,8350.0Issuance of new shares2,5002,0000.00.00.00.00.00.0Increase / (Pay-off) of LT loans(407,813)(1,209,835)0.0Stock Buyback0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Issuance of new shares18,0681,454,5280.0Increase / (Pay-off) of ST loans8,313(1,631)385,688(160,407)(244,765)0.00.00Stock Buyback(515)(1,853)(1,982)Increase / (Pay-off) of LT loans0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Dividend payment(260,665)(130,533)(163,441)(163,441)(163,441)(163,441)(163,441)(163,441)Dividend Payment(1,765,200)(741,428)(2,222,994)Changes in other LT liabilities(917)(36,961)39,28714,69517,99822,00926,87632,776Other distribution from equity337,684(33,105)(40,852)(56,670)(71,095)(88,113)(108,152)(126,372)

Cash flow from financing activities(1,188,384)126,247(2,224,976)Cash Flow from Financing Activities86,915(200,230)220,682(365,823)(461,304)(229,544)(244,717)(257,037)

NET CASH FLOW IN YEAR(432,037)1,373,015632,830NET CASH FLOW IN YEAR225,791253,390(49,856)118,249391,464547,094969,389853,016Chenh lech FX(1)(380)(326)Cash - Beginning584,129642,519467,084Cash - Beginning642,519467,084718,975669,119787,3671,178,8311,725,9252,695,315Cash - Ending152,0922,015,5341,099,915Cash - Ending868,310720,474669,119787,3671,178,8311,725,9252,695,3153,548,330Cash on Balance Sheet642,519467,084718,975Cash on Balance Sheet467,084718,975669,119787,3671,178,8311,725,9252,695,3153,548,330Difference(490,427)1,548,450380,939Difference401,2261,4980
FGate: FGate:Cha bit lm sao khon ny cn!0.00.00.00.00.0

CF Working

Doanh thu Ti chnhFinancial income48,89542,177Li cho vayDeposit interest41,90839,103C tc nhn cDividends received489422Li FX thc hin FX gain
FGate: FGate:Don't know this item is realized or unrealized4,9522,002Thanh l ti khon u tDisposal of investment1,54720Thu nhp ti chnh khcOther financial incomes0.0631

Chi ph ti chnhFinancial Expense7,1834,453Chi ph li vayInterest expense2,0392,612L FX thc hinFX loss
FGate: FGate:Don't know this item is realized or unrealized5,0011,709Chi ph Ti chnh khcOther financial expenses143132

Lai/(lo) trong cong ty lien doanh lien ketProfit/(loss) in associates(10,026)(188)

RatiosDHG Financial RatiosUnits: VND million, except per share dataHistoricalProjected2005A2006A2007A2008A2009A2010A2011A2012A2013F2014F2015F2016F2017F2018FGrowth Rates (%)Sales 46.2%17.0%17.5%16.5%22.4%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%COGS 44.4%15.7%19.0%23.1%26.2%15.8%17.8%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%Gross profit 47.8%18.1%16.3%10.9%18.9%19.5%17.6%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%Selling expenses49.4%10.8%-21.8%17.9%15.3%27.0%20.2%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%17.7%Administration expenses4.6%74.4%8.7%17.7%37.1%17.2%16.0%16.0%16.0%16.0%15.9%15.9%EBITDA16.2%11.0%11.2%13.9%20.9%20.5%20.1%19.8%Depreciation and Amortization29.3%24.6%44.4%44.6%5.7%6.4%7.1%7.7%EBIT / Operating profit67.2%18.9%121.6%2.6%17.4%12.4%15.0%18.3%18.3%18.3%18.3%18.3%EBT73.7%13.0%182.4%6.0%13.1%19.1%11.6%9.5%25.5%23.9%22.7%22.0%NPAT55.8%11.9%177.1%6.7%9.0%16.9%0.7%38.7%25.5%23.9%22.7%16.8%

ProfitabilityGross profit margin53.6%54.2%54.7%54.1%51.5%50.0%50.8%50.8%50.8%50.8%50.8%50.8%50.8%EBITDA margin19.7%18.7%17.6%16.6%16.1%16.5%16.9%17.3%17.6%EBIT margin / Operating profit margin11.2%12.9%13.1%24.6%21.7%20.8%19.9%19.4%19.5%19.6%19.7%19.8%19.9%EBT margin8.5%10.1%9.8%23.5%21.3%19.7%20.0%18.9%17.6%18.8%19.8%20.6%21.4%NPAT margin8.5%9.1%8.7%20.5%18.7%16.7%16.6%14.2%16.7%17.8%18.8%19.6%19.5%Return on Assets (ROA)15.3%16.1%12.7%27.4%22.8%21.8%22.2%17.3%19.8%21.7%22.5%22.3%21.1%Return on Equity (ROE)45.8%29.4%19.5%41.7%33.3%31.2%31.7%26.8%31.0%31.4%31.0%30.1%28.0%ROIC26.1%25.6%24.2%15.5%24.3%26.8%26.4%25.6%22.9%

Financial leverageDebt Equity Ratio1.040.070.010.070.010.020.010.210.100.000.000.000.00Debt to Total Asset ratio0.350.050.010.050.010.010.010.120.070.000.000.000.00Equity Multiplier0.330.660.650.660.700.690.710.600.670.710.740.740.76

LiquidityQuick Ratio0.691.411.312.002.321.781.991.101.511.912.472.633.16Current Ratio1.102.132.162.693.062.742.781.642.192.713.323.434.02

Coverage ratiosInterest coverage (EBITDA/interest)893211819922819827CFO/Current liabilities4.34.48.10.40.50.80.70.80.6CFO/Interest bearing debt157.7No debtNo debtNo debtNo debtNo debtNo debtNo debtNo debt

EfficiencyReceivable Turnover5.66.56.67.57.37.77.47.37.27.06.96.86.6Days Receivable Outstanding65565649504749505152535455Inventory Turnover3.33.32.52.63.02.92.82.92.82.82.82.82.8Days Inventory Outstanding110111146141122128131127129129128129129Payables Turnover11.613.013.514.613.713.914.013.913.913.9Days Payable Outstanding32282725272626262626Business Cycle144148156150153155155156158Current Asset Turnover2.62.52.01.71.51.71.81.81.81.71.61.41.3Fixed Asset Turnover12.114.114.015.915.414.113.68.97.69.411.714.517.8Asset Turnover1.81.81.51.31.21.31.31.21.21.21.21.11.1

Purchasing

EquityDHG Shareholder EquityUnits: VND million, except per share dataHistoricalProjectedSHAREHOLDER EQUITY2011A2012A2013A2014E2015E2016E2017E2018EOwner investment capital651,764653,764653,764653,764653,764653,764653,764653,764Share capital surplus0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Difference in currency0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Retained earnings377,313476,512608,029851,8311,199,2991,669,0572,282,8273,027,528Investment and development fund286,384491,137637,924841,5451,097,0001,413,5991,802,2052,256,276Financial reserve fund66,54266,76265,37665,37665,37665,37665,37665,376Other funds0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Treasury stock(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)Total shareholder equity1,381,5471,687,7191,964,6382,412,0613,014,9833,801,3414,803,7176,002,489

Retained Earnings2011A2012A2013A2014E2015E2016E2017E2018EBeginning balance364,342377,313476,511608,029851,8311,199,2991,669,0572,282,827Profit for the year415,527485,921489,289678,738851,5151,055,3321,295,3521,513,571Transfer to funds(141,891)(256,190)(194,330)(271,495)(340,606)(422,133)(518,141)(605,428)Investment & Development fund (10%)(83,428)(204,753)(146,787)(203,621)(255,455)(316,600)(388,606)(454,071)Financial Reserve (Max (5%, 10% chartered))(2,326)(220)1,3860.00.00.00.00.0Bonus funds(56,137)(51,217)(48,929)(67,874)(85,152)(105,533)(129,535)(151,357)Dividend payment(260,665)(130,533)(163,441)(163,441)(163,441)(163,441)(163,441)(163,441)Increase charter capital0.00.0OthersEnding balance377,313476,511608,029851,8311,199,2991,669,0572,282,8273,027,528

Detailed Calculation2011A2012A2013A2014E2015E2016E2017E2018EShare CapitalBeginning balance269,130651,764653,764653,764653,764653,764653,764653,764New capital2,500
Linh. Tran Thi My: Linh. Tran Thi My:ESOP + issuance to strategic2000Bonus/Right issue380,135
Linh. Tran Thi My: Linh. Tran Thi My:bonus issue 2:10.0Ending balance651,764653,764653,764653,764653,764653,764653,764653,764

Share premiumBeginning balance378,7610.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Increase0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Decrease(378,761)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Ending balance0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Treasury stockBeginning balance(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)Increase0.00.0Decrease0.00.0Ending balance(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)(456)

Investment & development Fund (10% NPAT)20.1%42%Beginning balance204,329286,384491,137637,924841,5451,097,0001,413,5991,802,205Increase83,428204,753146,787203,621255,455316,600388,606454,071Decrease(1,373)0.0Ending balance286,384491,137637,924841,5451,097,0001,413,5991,802,2052,256,276

Financial reserve (Max (5%, 10% chartered))0.6%0%Beginning balance64,21566,54266,76265,37665,37665,37665,37665,376Increase2,326220(1,386)0.00.00.00.00.0DecreaseEnding balance66,54266,76265,37665,37665,37665,37665,37665,376

Non-equity fundsBonus fund (10% NPAT)13.5%11%Beginning balance29,48944,54862,65970,73681,94095,996113,417134,800Increase56,13751,21748,92967,87485,152105,533129,535151,357Decrease
Linh. Tran Thi My: Linh. Tran Thi My:payout to employees(41,078)(33,105)(40,852)(56,670)(71,095)(88,113)(108,152)(126,372)Ending balance44,54862,65970,73681,94095,996113,417134,800159,785

Capex_D&A

DHG Fixed AssetsUnits: VND million, except per share dataHistoricalProjectedFIXED ASSETS2006A2007A2008A2009A2010A2011A2012A2013A2014E2015E2016E2017E2018ETangible Fixed Assets81,120111,295106,799118,833167,841255,331279,742931,897863,755799,906741,108688,254642,395Historical price115,899168,878191,418231,889310,199443,231522,6201,269,0111,337,9931,419,1651,514,6811,627,0781,759,338Ending Balance = Beginning balance + Construction in Progress. Accum depreciation(34,779)(57,583)(84,619)(113,056)(142,358)(187,900)(242,878)(337,114)(474,238)(619,259)(773,574)(938,825)(1,116,944)Intangible Fixed Assets62,047105,272100,684112,920127,878157,377167,001173,591180,507187,766195,383203,378211,770Historical price62,047105,546101,089113,635131,895163,250174,924183,670192,853202,496212,621223,252234,414Accum Amortization0.0(274)(405)(715)(4,017)(5,872)(7,922)(10,079)(12,346)(14,730)(17,237)(19,873)(22,645)Investment Properties0.00.00.00.06,4570.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Historical price0.00.00.00.07,7850.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Accum Amortization0.00.00.00.0(1,328)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Net Depreciation for Tangible 22,80427,03628,43729,30245,54254,97894,236137,124145,021154,315165,251178,119Depreciation rate16.02%15.01%13.44%10.81%12.09%11.38%10.52%10.52%10.52%10.52%10.52%10.52%Depreciation period6.246.667.449.258.278.789.519.519.519.519.519.51

Net Amortization in year2741313103,3011,8562,0502,1562,2672,3842,5072,6362,771Amortization rate0.3%0.1%0.3%2.69%1.26%1.21%1.51%1.51%1.51%1.51%1.51%1.51%Amortization period305.83787.48346.1837.1979.5382.4866.466.466.466.466.466.4

Net Depreciation for Investment Properties0.00.00.01,328(1,328)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Depreciation rate34.11%-34.11%0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Depreciation period2.93-2.93n/a0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Total Depreciation & Amortization23,07827,16728,74733,93146,07057,02896,393139,391147,406156,822167,887180,891D&A / Sales1.82%1.83%1.65%1.67%1.85%1.95%2.79%3.43%3.09%2.79%2.54%2.32%D&A / COGS3.97%4.04%3.59%3.44%3.70%3.96%5.68%6.98%6.27%5.67%5.16%4.72%

COSTSTangible fixed assetsBeginning115,899168,878191,418231,889310,199443,231522,6201,269,0111,337,9931,419,1651,514,6811,627,078Purchased in year44,83048,38232,310Transferred from CIP47,96684,19458,659746,39168,98181,17295,517112,397132,260Sold in year(8,916)(7,183)(11,580)Other adjustment(5,571)7,6390Ending115,899168,878191,418231,889310,199443,231522,6201,269,0111,337,9931,419,1651,514,6811,627,0781,759,338

Intangible assetsBeginning62,047105,546101,089113,635131,895163,250174,924183,670192,853202,496212,621223,252Purchased in year24,56530,04811,0328,7469,1839,64310,12510,63111,163Transferred from CIP(2,784)(2,540)(1,936)Sold in year(2,332)(1,295)Other adjustment(3,521)6,1793,872Ending62,047105,546101,089113,635131,895163,250174,924183,670192,853202,496212,621223,252234,414

Investment PropertiesBeginning0.00.00.00.07,7850.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Purchased in yearTransferred from CIP12,4110.00.0Sold in yearOther adjustment(4,627)(7,785)0.0Ending0.00.00.00.07,7850.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

DepreciationTangible fixed assetsBeginning34,77957,58384,619113,056142,358187,900242,878337,114474,238619,259773,574938,825Increased in year35,95250,14764,62694,236137,124145,021154,315165,251178,119Sold in year(5,021)(5,791)(9,649)Other adjustment(1,630)1,1860Ending34,77957,58384,619113,056142,358187,900242,878337,114474,238619,259773,574938,8251,116,944

Intangible assetsBeginning0.02744057154,0175,8727,92210,07912,34614,73017,23719,873Increased in year3,3011,8232,1412,1562,2672,3842,5072,6362,771Sold in year0.0(91)Other adjustment0.0330Ending0.02744057154,0175,8727,92210,07912,34614,73017,23719,87322,645

Investment PropertiesBeginning0.00.00.00.01,3280.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Increased in year0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Sold in yearOther adjustment1,328(1,328)0.0Ending0.00.00.00.01,3280.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Net book valueRemaining assets302,176412,708446,7431,105,4891,044,262987,671936,491891,632854,164Tangible fixed assets167,841255,331279,742931,897863,755799,906741,108688,254642,395Intangible assets127,878157,377167,001173,591180,507187,766195,383203,378211,770Investment Properties6,4570.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Sold assets3,8953,7253,1340.00.00.00.00.00.0

CONSTRUCTION IN PROGRESSBeginning balance4,97512,2142,0035,2627,72046,74670,39168,98181,17295,517112,397132,260Increase in year53,323125,93084,240744,98181,17295,517112,397132,260155,633Transfer to tangible fixed assets(47,966)(84,194)(58,659)(746,391)(68,981)(81,172)(95,517)(112,397)(132,260)Transfer to intangible fixed assets(2,784)(2,540)(1,936)Other changes(115)(169)0Ending balance4,97512,2142,0035,2627,72046,74670,39168,98181,17295,517112,397132,260155,633

2013-2018 PROJECTION

CAPEX PLAN 20112012201320142015201620172018Maintenance133,03279,38968,98181,17295,517112,397132,260155,633New Capex676,000
FGate: FGate:Nh my mi d kin i vo hot ng t thng 1/2014. Gi nh nh my mi c ghi nh n vo Fixed asset vo cui nm 20130.00.00.00.00.0Total New Capex744,98181,17295,517112,397132,260155,633

Total Tangible assets443,231522,6201,269,0111,337,9931,419,1651,514,6811,627,0781,759,338Maintenance rate (% of sales)4%5%3%2%
FGate: FGate:Do nh my mi i vo hot ng nn maintenance c th gim => check2%2%2%2%2%

Depreciation of Tangible Assets
FGate: FGate:Ti sn mi c gi nh a vo s dng vo gia nm, nn s bt u khu hao 1/2 trong nm , sau s khu hao 100% k t cc nm sau .Note:Old assets45,54254,97854,97854,97854,97854,97854,97854,978329,866- Historical price of Tangible Fixed Assets at the ending of year 1 = Historical price of Tangible Fixed Assets at the end of year 0 + Construction in Progress of year 0New assets in 201339,259
FGate: FGate:Ti sn mi a vo cui nm 2013 nn cha khu hao trong nm ny78,51878,51878,51878,51878,518431,847- Assume new assets only brought into operation since the beginning of next yearNew assets in 20143,6287,2577,2577,2577,25732,655New assets in 20154,2698,5398,5398,53929,886New assets in 20165,02410,04810,04825,120New assets in 20175,91211,82417,736New assets in 20186,9576,957Total Depreciation45,54254,97894,236137,124145,021154,315165,251178,119

Amortization of Intangible AssetsOld assets2,0502,0502,0502,0502,0502,050New assets in 2013106106106106106106New assets in 2014111111111111111New assets in 2015117117117117New assets in 2016123123123New assets in 2017129129New assets in 2018135Total Amortization2,1562,2672,3842,5072,6362,771

AssumptionDepreciation period of new assets (year)Tangible8.789.519.519.519.519.51Intangible82.4866.4066.4066.4066.4066.40Depreciation period of first year (months)Tangible121212121212Intangible121212121212Increase in fixed assets (% old assets)Intangible5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%

WACCWACC Analysis - DHG

Discount Rate Calculation - AssumptionsRisk-Free Rate:7.78%
Linh. Tran Thi My: FGate:Vietnam Government Bond Rate (5 years), updated 24 Feb 2014Equity Risk Premium:13.25%
FGate: FGate:Damodaran, Latest update 1/1/2014http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.htmlInterest Rate on Debt:10.00%

Comparable Companies - Unlevered Beta CalculationLeveredEquityUnleveredNameBetaDebt
FGate: FGate:by 30/9/2013Value
FGate: FGate:by 26/2/2014Tax RateBetaDomesco0.78721,18925.0%0.75Unlevered beta = Levered beta / (1+(1-t)*D/E)Traphaco0.824302,12225.0%0.71Imexpharm0.500.091925.0%0.50

Median0.780.71

DHG0.66DHG - Levered Beta & WACC CalculationUnleveredEquityLeveredBetaDebt
FGate: FGate:by 31/12/2013ValueTax RateBeta

DHG0.71405,1728,562,98525%0.74

Cost of Equity Based on Comparables:17.54%Cost of Equity Based on Historical Beta:16.52%WACCBased on comparables17.09%Based on Historical beta16.23%

DCFDHG DCF CalculationFCFF Projection

VNDm2011A2012A2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018EEBIT492,981587,399673,618746,958908,5701,110,8761,363,5281,663,265Tax Paid71,47593,912168,40537,34845,42855,54468,176149,694EBIAT421,505493,486505,214709,610863,1411,055,3321,295,3521,513,571Add back: Depreciation & Amortization Expense53,59766,76896,393139,391147,406156,822167,887180,891Minus:Change in Net Working Capital171,284(18,653)101,224255,43239,862311,955104,984416,187Capital Expenditure210,224131,455753,72790,355105,160122,522142,891166,796Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)93,595447,452(253,345)503,214865,525777,6781,215,3641,905,426FCFF growth-157%-299%72%-10%56%57%WACC17.09%Discount Period0.0
DELL: DELL:linh1.02.03.04.05.0Discount Factor1.000.850.730.620.530.45Present Value of FCFF(253,345)429,774631,327484,464646,629865,821-157%-299%72%-10%56%57%

Enterprise Value (VND mn)Implied Equity Value and Share Price (VND mn, except per share)Implied Perpetuity Growth RateCumulative Present Value of FCFF2,804,669Enterprise Value8,441,155FCFF Terminal Value (2018E)1,905,426Less: Total Debt127,031
FGate: FGate:31/12/2013 unaudited FSWACC17.09%Terminal Value (by EV/EBITDA)Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents783,287
DELL: 31/12/2013 Unaudited FSTerminal Value12,404,306Terminal EBITDA (2018E)1,550,538Exit Multiple8.0xImplied Equity Value9,351,473Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate1.5%Terminal Value12,404,306Discount Factor0.5Present Value of Terminal Value5,636,487Price per Share[$VND] 143,063% of Enterprise Value66.77% P/E 2013E19.1xEnterprise Value8,441,155

Enterprise Value (VND mn)Exit Multiple8,441,1557.0x7.5x8.0x8.5x9.0xWACC15.09%8,359,6107,975,6377,975,6378,359,6109,127,55516.09%8,694,9388,293,8408,293,8408,694,9389,497,13417.09%8,694,9388,293,8408,293,8408,694,9389,497,13418.09%8,359,6107,975,6377,975,6378,359,6109,127,55519.09%7,736,5947,384,3147,384,3147,736,5948,441,155

Equity Value (VND mn)Exit Multiple9,351,4737.0x7.5x8.0x8.5x9.0xWACC15.09%9,269,9288,885,9558,885,9559,269,92810,037,87316.09%9,605,2569,204,1589,204,1589,605,25610,407,45217.09%9,605,2569,204,1589,204,1589,605,25610,407,45218.09%9,269,9288,885,9558,885,9559,269,92810,037,87319.09%8,646,9128,294,6328,294,6328,646,9129,351,473

Price per Share (VND)Exit Multiple143,0637.0x7.5x8.0x8.5x9.0xWACC15.09%141,815135,941135,941141,815153,56316.09%146,945140,809140,809146,945159,21717.09%146,945140,809140,809146,945159,21718.09%141,815135,941135,941141,815153,56319.09%132,284126,895126,895132,284143,063Implied Perpetuity Growth RateExit Multiple1.5%7.0x7.5x8.0x8.5x9.0xWACC15.09%-2.1%-3.2%-3.2%-2.1%-0.2%16.09%-2.9%-4.1%-4.1%-2.9%-1.1%17.09%-2.9%-4.1%-4.1%-2.9%-1.1%18.09%-2.1%-3.2%-3.2%-2.1%-0.2%19.09%-0.4%-1.5%-1.5%-0.4%1.5%PV of Terminal Value as % of Enterprise ValueExit Multiple67%7.0x7.5x8.0x8.5x9.0xWACC15.09%64.3%62.6%62.6%64.3%67.3%16.09%64.6%62.9%62.9%64.6%67.6%17.09%64.6%62.9%62.9%64.6%67.6%18.09%64.3%62.6%62.6%64.3%67.3%19.09%63.7%62.0%62.0%63.7%66.8%FCFE Projection

VNDm2011A2012A2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018EFree Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)93,595447,452(253,345)503,214865,525777,6781,215,3641,905,426Minus:After-tax Interest Expense1,7432,19415,92530,87211,6260.00.0Add:Net Debt Borrowing8,313(1,631)385,688(160,407)(244,765)0.00.0Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)100,165443,627116,418311,935609,134777,6781,215,3641,905,426FCFE growth22%
FGate: FGate:CAGR 2012-201715%Cost of Equity17.54%Discount Period0.01.02.03.04.05.0Discount Factor1.000.850.720.620.520.45Present Value of FCFE116,418265,382440,888478,876636,703849,240

Equity Value (VND mn)Implied Equity Value and Share Price (VND mn, except per share)Cumulative Present Value of FCFE2,787,507Equity Value8,080,486Less: Cash & Cash Equivalents783,287FCFE Terminal Value (by growth rate)Plus: Debt405,1722018 FCFE1,905,426Implied Enterprise Value8,863,773Growth rate1.5%Terminal Value11,875,766Implied Price per Share[$VND] 123,599Discount Factor0.45PV of Terminal Value5,292,979P/E 2013E16.5xAs of % of Equity Value65.50%Equity Value8,080,486

Equity Value (VND m)Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate8,080,486-0.5%0.5%1.5%2.5%3.5%Cost of Equity15.54%8,721,3448,382,9858,382,9858,721,3449,542,61316.54%9,466,8119,066,4439,066,4439,466,81110,451,70017.54%9,466,8119,066,4439,066,4439,466,81110,451,70018.54%8,721,3448,382,9858,382,9858,721,3449,542,61319.54%7,493,8327,246,7127,246,7127,493,8328,080,486

Price per Share (VND)Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate123,599-0.5%0.5%1.5%2.5%3.5%Cost of Equity15.54%133,423128,246128,246133,423145,98716.54%144,827138,702138,702144,827159,89417.54%144,827138,702138,702144,827159,89418.54%133,423128,246128,246133,423145,98719.54%114,644110,863110,863114,644123,619

Comps_StatDHGBenchmarking Analysis - Financial Statistics and Ratios(VND millions, except VND per share data)Market ValuationLTM Financial Statistics (VNDmn, except EPS - VND)LTM Profitability MarginsGrowth RateAs of 26 Feb 2014GrossNetSalesEBITDAEPSEquity EnterpriseSharesGrossNetProfitEBITDAEBITIncomeHist.Hist.Hist.CompanyTickerValue (VNDmn)Value (VNDmn)Outstanding (mn)SalesProfitEBITDAEBITIncomeEPS(%)(%)(%)(%)1-year1-year1-yearDomescoDMC787,173621,82817.81,429,615442,522164,129133,738106,2495,96631.0%11.5%9.4%7.4%13.4%9.4%17.7%TraphacoTRA2,097,2421,955,20524.71,682,364743,290265,339243,183149,2656,43744.2%15.8%14.5%8.9%20.1%19.3%-31.8%ImexpharmIMP910,530716,08716.4842,309423,824132,38099,77361,0313,72050.3%15.7%11.8%7.2%3.0%-1.0%-25.8%

Dc Hu GiangDHG8,562,9858,094,78465.43,449,0651,751,817669,999573,606489,2897,48550.8%19.4%16.6%14.2%17.7%11.2%21.1%

General InformationReturn on InvestmentLTM Coverage RatiosLeverage RatiosAs of 26 Feb 2014EBITDA/EBITDAEBIT/Net Debt/PriceShares OutstandingBetaROEROAInt. Exp.- Cpx/Int.Int. Exp.Tot. Cap.CompanyTicker(VND)(million)(%)(%)(x)(x)(x)(%)DomescoDMC44,20017.80.7817.0%11.3%30.6323.6124.96-26.6%TraphacoTRA85,00024.70.8223.4%8.8%12.8710.0811.80-7.3%ImexpharmIMP55,50016.40.508.3%7.1%10.96(4.31)6.44-27.2%

Dc Hu GiangDHG131,000.0065.40.6631.7%22.2%31.5548131064(4)27.0150299613-27.2%

Comps_ValDHGComparable Companies Analysis(VND millions, except per share data)Enterprise Value /Price /Current% ofShare52-wk.Equity Enterprise201320132013CompanyTickerPrice ($)HighValueValueSalesEBITDAEPSAs of26-Feb-14DomescoDMC44,20099%787,173621,8280.43x3.79x7.41xTraphacoTRA85,00096%2,097,2421,955,2051.16x7.37x13.20xImexpharmIMP55,50097%910,530716,0870.85x5.41x14.92x

Dc Hu GiangDHG131,00099%8,562,9858,094,7842.35x12.08x17.50x

Maximum2.35x12.08x17.50x75th Percentile1.01x6.39x14.06xMedian0.85x5.41x13.20x25th Percentile0.64x4.60x10.31xMinimum0.43x3.79x7.41x

Scenario AnalysisDHGScenario Analysis(VND millions, except per share data)BaseCASE1BestWorstDCF RESULTS (FCFF)BASEBESTWORSTRef

Total EV (VNDm)111,372,700175,957,26677,300,4128,441,155Total EqV (VNDm)116,285,185180,869,75182,212,8979,351,473

Share Price (VND)139,438216,88298,582143,063

2013 P/E (x)18.7x24.3x14.7x19.1x2013 EV/EBITDA (x)15.2x20.2x11.7x12.6x2013 P/B (x)6.3x9.2x4.6x4.8xAssumptions2013E2014E2015E2016E2017ESales growthBase caseERROR:#REF!ERROR:#REF!ERROR:#REF!ERROR:#REF!ERROR:#REF!Best case26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%Worst case18.0%18.0%18.0%18.0%18.0%

Gross marginBase caseERROR:#REF!ERROR:#REF!ERROR:#REF!ERROR:#REF!ERROR:#REF!Best case54.7%54.7%54.7%54.7%54.7%Worst case53.6%53.6%53.6%53.6%53.6%Working CapitalReceivable daysBase case49.2
FGate: FGate:dieu chinh lai vi so ngay phai thu keo dai do co the ban hang nhieu hon cho khach hang si. So sanh so 6thang 201349.249.249.249.2Best case48.848.848.848.848.8Worst case50.056.056.056.056.0

Inventory daysBase case64.0
FGate: FGate:dieu chinh lai vi so du hang ton kho nam 2012 cao hon binh thuong do cong ty tru hang64.064.064.064.0Best case64.064.064.064.064.0Worst case127.6127.6127.6127.6127.6

Payable daysBase case40.040.040.040.040.0Best case31.631.631.631.631.6Worst case28.128.128.128.128.1Growth in 2nd stage (2018-2022)Base case15%15%15%15%15%Best case20%20%20%20%20%Worst case10%10%10%10%10%

Documents

FGate DuocHauGiang DHG Model