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October 13, 2009 / Volume 23 / Number 27

BRITISH SULPHUR CONSULTANTS A DIVISION OF CRU

October 13, 2009

Urea FSU urea trading remains slow as the final outcome of negotiations in India is awaited. Producers are aiming for a minimum of $240/mt FOB while traders still seek cover at prices below $235/mt FOB to generate a margin on sales concluded.

Other than the parcels already booked by Dreymoor for Pakistan and the direct sale by Gorlovka to STC, Black Sea tonnage still does not feature prominently in the sales made to date. Helm is expected to cover the quantity likely to be awarded by TCP in today’s tender from sources outside the FSU. Keytrade is expected to load 50,000 mt from Yuzhnyy and a sale by Fedcominvest to STC as appears imminent is likely set to also load from Yuzhnyy/TIS. Fedcominvest has been in negotiations with a number of Ukrainian producers for cover, and is still expected to aim for awards for a total of 200,000 mt with STC.

Product from the Baltic is also quoted at $240/mt FOB for October, but the highest sales recorded to date remain no higher than the $234/mt FOB sale concluded by Citco for October loading.

Indian Subcontinent Information contained in earlier Extra Updates today is repeated and updated in the following:

INDIA: Negotiations with STC still continue. Following the latest revisions to the quantities awarded and the addition of a 35,000 mt sale by Stirol/Gorlovka at $239-240/mt FOB Yuzhnyy, the importer is now understood to have procured a total of 530,000 mt. As reported earlier, delivered prices awarded are at $275/mt CFR for Mundra, $276/mt CFR for Kandla, $277/mt CFR for New Mangalore/Pipavav, $278/mt CFR for Gangavaram/Krishnapatnam and at $279/mt CFR for Vizag, Paradip, Tuticorin and Kakinada. Gorlovka suggests that the FOB sale to STC is concluded at $240/mt FOB while STC suggests that the deal has been closed at $239/mt FOB.

Middle East producers, Fedcominvest, and Dreymoor are

still negotiating on price and terms, and further awards may ensue later in the day.

Awards issued to date by STC are tabulated in the following: STC – AWARDS IN OCTOBER 8 UREA TENDER

Supplier Origin

Quantity '000 mt

Price $m/t FOB

Price $/mt CFR

Loading port Shipment

Trammo Open

175

275 M 276 K

277 Pi/NM 278 Kp

By Nov 30

Gavilon Open

75

279 V/T By Nov 30

Keytrade FSU/Open Indonesia/Open

65 50

15

275 M 276 K

277 Pi/NM 278 Kp

279 V/Pa

Toepfer Open

55

278 G By Nov 30

Swiss Spore Open

50

279 V/Pa By Nov 30

Amber China/Open

50

278 Kp By Nov 30

Agora China/Open

25

277 NM By Nov 30

Stirol/Gorlov Ukraine

35

239 or 240

Yuzhnyy By Nov 30

Total

530

M=Mundra, K=Kandla, Kk=Kakinada, V=Vizag, Kp=Krishnapatnam, G=Gangavaram NM=New Mangalore, T=Tuticorin, Pi=Pipavav, Pa=Paradip

PAKISTAN: TCP received offers from seven participants in the tender for 100,000 mt granular or prilled bulk urea that closed today, October 13. Firm offers were submitted for 350-510,000 mt. An additional 50-70,000 mt was offered as an optional position, for a grand total of 580,000 mt.

Helm is expected to be awarded a minimum of 50-70,000 mt at the $289.71/mt CFR price submitted, up by about $2/mt on the $287.78/mt CFR awarded to Transfert via the October 10 tender. Offers listed below are valid through October 15, and cargoes offered are for shipment within two weeks from LC issuance:

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October 13, 2009 / Volume 23 / Number 27

BRITISH SULPHUR CONSULTANTS A DIVISION OF CRU

FOR GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE

FERTILIZER WEEKFERTILIZER WEEK

TCP – OFFERS IN OCTOBER 13 TENDER FOR 100,000 MT UREA Supplier Origin

Quantity '000 mt

Price $/mt CFR

Validity Shipment

Helm Open

50-140 50-70

50-70 s/o

289.71 289.71

Apt

Keytrade Open

50-60 50-60

290.48

Apt

Multicommerce Open

50-70 50-70

291.00

Apt

Trammo Open

50-70 50-70

294.17

Apt

Amber Open

50 50

294.70

Apt

Swiss Spore Open

50 50

295.50

Apt

Dreymoor Open

50-70 50-70

294.73

Apt

Total

350-580

Apt= As per tender s/o = seller’s option

Awards under the October 10 tender for 150,000 mt remain limited to the 50,000 mt booked by Transfert at $287.78/mt CFR. A recap of awards to date and upcoming tenders is listed below for easy reference: TCP – AWARDS AND STATUS IN OCTOBER 2009 TENDERS

Tender number Quantity '000mt

Tender date Supplier Quantity '000 mt

Price $/mt CFR

9-1/09 - 150 03 Oct Toepfer 50 298.94 9-2/09 - 150 06 Oct Dreymoor 70 288.81 9-3/09 - 150 08 Oct Trammo 100 283.77 9-4/09 - 150 10 Oct Transfert 50 287.78 9-5/09 - 100 13 Oct Helm (awards

pending) 50-70

50-70 s/o 289.71

9-6/09 - 100 15 Oct 9-7/09 - 100 17 Oct Total to date 270 s/o =at seller’s option TCP is still expected to issue two or three more tenders

for 100,000 mt each, likely closing October 20-24.

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October 13, 2009 / Volume 23 / Number 27

BRITISH SULPHUR CONSULTANTS A DIVISION OF CRU

FOR GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE

FERTILIZER WEEKFERTILIZER WEEK

Phosphates INDIA: RCF has scrapped its October 8 tender for 200,000 mt of DAP. Following an unsuccessful e-reverse auction October 12, RCF’s counter-offer, now revealed at $350/mt CFR, has been rejected by all bidders, which submitted four offers as follows: RCF: OFFERS IN OCTOBER 08 TENDER FOR 200,000 MT DAP

Supplier Quantity Price Shipment Origin '000 mt CFR Transammonia US

40.0 367.00 Apt

Ameropa CIS

25-50.0 25.0

25.0 s/o

378.00 Apt

Wengfu China

60.0 385.00 Apt

Swiss Singapore China

25-75.0 25.0

50.0 s/o

394.95 Apt

TOTAL 150-225.0 Apt= As per tender; s/o =at seller’s option JPMC sent regrets

BANGLADESH: Honeybee has reportedly purchased around 100,000 mt of Chinese DAP for 2H October through December loading in the mid $340s/mt FOB.

YOU CAN ORDER ANY PRICESERIES, IN EXCEL FORMATRing Customer Services on +44 20 7903 2146 for more information.

Potash RUSSIA: Local press reports suggest that Uralkali might be able to use as much as 50-60% of the potash reserves that were believed to be lost at during the flooding of Mine-1 at Berezniki in October in 2006. Uralkali was not available for comment at press time.

Sulphur SAUDI ARAMCO: The producer is looking to conclude its Q4 contracts in the next 1-2 weeks with customers in China and India. A target price of $45/mt FOB looks unlikely now, and sources suggest that a price of $40/mt FOB will be likely settled, matching that reportedly agreed by Adnoc with its Chinese customers for the fourth quarter.

IRAN: PCC held an auction on the Iran Mercantile Exchange yesterday, October 12. In the previous sale via the Exchange, held in September, PCC sold 30,000 mt at $44/mt FOB for shipment late October.

Indian Subcontinent

INDIA: MMTC has awarded its October 8 import tender for 10,000 mt to Swiss Singapore at $66.45/mt CFR for arrival at Vizag late October.

Asia

TAIWAN: Formosa has issued a sales tender for its usual quantity of 15,000 mt, closing October 15, loading from Mai Liao. In its previous tender, held September 11, Formosa awarded the same quantity at around $55/mt FOB.