Female education, female income and the next child

in West Germany and Great Britain

Michaela Kreyenfeld and Cordula Zabel

”The growth in the

earning power of women

…is the major cause of

….the large decline in

fertility. "

Gary S. Becker 1993

A Treatise on the Family, Cambridge

”One of the most consistent

findings …is a negative

relationship between

women’s education and

fertility."

Charles Hirschman 1994

Annual Review of Sociology

Education and Fertility

Education and Fertility

Empirical Research on Macro Level• Evidence that negative macro level correlation between female

employment and fertility has weakened (Ahn and Mira 2002).

Empirical Evidence on Micro Level• Consistent evidence that highly educated women have higher

second and third birth risks:

Germany: Huinink (1995)

Sweden: Berinde (1999) or Hoem (1996)

Norway: Kravdal (1992), (2001)

Austria: Hoem et al. (2001)

Hungary: Olah (2003)

France: Köppen (2004)

UK: Smallwood (2004)

Denmark: Harhoff et al. (2007)

1. Theoretical Considerations

Is the high fertility of highly educated women a

statistical artefact?

2. Britain and West Germany

2.1 Two contrasting welfare states

2.2 General fertility development

3. Empirical Results

3.1 Data, variables, method

3.2 Event history models on higher order birth risks

Structure

Is the high fertility of highly educated

women a statistical artefact?

Theoretical Considerations

Empirical Evidence

• There is consistent evidence that highly educated

women have higher second and third birth risks:

Huinink (1995), Berinde (1999), Hoem (1996), Kravdal (1992,

2001), Hoem et al. (2001), Olah 2003, Smallwood (2004), Köppen

(2004), Harhoff et al. (2007)

• All these studies have in common that they relied on

an event history framework.

Theoretical Considerations

# 1: Time-Squeeze Hypothesis

• Highly educated women have higher birth risks, because they space their children close together.

• Reasons for the close spacing are:

- an age-related „time-squeeze“

- „work-accelerated childbearing“ (Ni Brochain)

The birth rates are higher for highly educated women. However, the final progression to the next child is the same as for other women.

Theoretical Considerations

# 2: Work-Characteristics Hypothesis

• Highly educated often work in jobs that offer better possibilities to combine work and family life.

• They are often employed in the public sector, which is more conducive to the compatibility of work and family life than the private sector.

The birth rates are higher for highly educated women, because of an omission of work-characteristics in the models.

Theoretical Considerations

# 3: Partner Hypothesis

• Assortative mating is common in many countries.

• Highly educated women more often have highly educated partners who have the earning potential to afford a larger family.

The birth rates are higher for highly educated women, because of an omission of partner characteristics.

Theoretical Considerations

# 4: Selection Hypothesis

• Women at risk of second birth have already given birth to a first child.

• Highly educated women who choose to have one child are a selective group of people who are

- particularly family orientated

- particularly good at arranging day care

Highly educated women are a select group of people with special (unobserved) characteristics. These (unobserved) characteristics explain their high second and third birth rates.

Theoretical Considerations

Hypotheses

1. Time-squeeze: Highly educated women need to accelerate the transition to the second/third child.

2. Work Characteristics: Highly educated women more often have secure jobs in the public sector.

3. Partner Effect: Highly educated women more often have highly educated partners who have the earning potential to afford a larger family.

4. Selectivity: Highly educated women at risk of second or third birth are a select group of people.

….or a “true” income effect?

Great Britain and West Germany

Welfare States and Fertility Development

Liberal-Market Regime

Conservative- FamilialisticRegime

Inco

mpa

tibili

tyChi

ld c

are

mar

ket

Total Period Fertility Rate Total Cohort Fertility Rate

Source: Council of Europe 2005, Statistisches Bundesamt 2007

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1.6

1.4

West Germany

Great Britain

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

1930 1940 1950 1960

West Germany

Great Britain

1.9

1.5

Fertility Development

Family Size Distribution by Birth Cohort

Source: SOEP 2005, BHPS 2004, own calculations

West Germany Great Britain

15% 18%

25% 22%

41% 37%

13%15%

6% 8%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1940-49 1950-59

10% 14%

12%14%

46%42%

24% 20%

8% 10%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1940-49 1950-59

4+ children

3 children

2 children

1 child

Childless

Fertility Development

Transition to First Birth by Age of Woman (Life Table Estimates)West Germany Great Britain

0%

50%

100%

15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Cohort 1960-69

Cohort 1950-59

Cohort 1940-49

0%

50%

100%

15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Cohort 1940-49

Cohort 1950-59

Cohort 1960-69

25 30 25 27

Source: SOEP 2005, BHPS 2004, own calculations

Fertility Development

0%

50%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Age of second child

Transition to Second and Third Birth (Cohorts 1950-1969)

2nd Birth 3rd Birth

0%

50%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Age of second child

West Germany

Great Britain

West Germany

Great Britain

Source: SOEP 2005, BHPS 2004, own calculations

Age of first child

Fertility Development

Empirical Results

Data• German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2005)

• British Household Panel Survey (1991-2004)

Method• Piecewise-constant event history model

Dependent Variable• Second pregnancy (duration in months since last birth)

• Third pregnancy (duration in months since last birth)

Data, Method and Variables

Independent Variables

• Age of previous child Age 0-1, 1-2, 2-3 etc.

• Age at first birth Age 16-20, 20-25 etc.

• Calendar period 1984-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000 etc.

• Marital Status Married, cohabiting, single, divorced/widowed

• Ethnicity/Nationality Foreigner/German (SOEP), Foreign born/native (BHPS)

• Sex of previous children Girl(s), boy(s), mixed

• Employment status Full-time, Part-time employed, not employed

•

Data, Method and Variables

Independent Variables

• Education No degree (no vocational or university degree)

Vocational degree

University degree

• Partner Education No degree (no vocational or university degree)

Vocational degree

University degree

• Sector Public sector

Private sector

• Income Gross labor market income, deflated and categorized

Data, Method and Variables

Sample Size

BHPS SOEP

Second Births

Respondents 903 2,763

Events (second births) 455 1,195

Third Births

Respondents 1,131 3,609

Events (third births) 205 488

Data, Method and Variables

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6 6-8 8+

Age of previous child

Age of Previous Child (Absolute Risks in 1,000)

2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks

West Germany

Great Britain

West Germany

Great Britain

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6 6-8 8+

Age of previous child

Results

Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

Age at First Birth (Relative Risks)

2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks

West Germany

Great Britain

0

1

2

3

16-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-45

Age at first birth

West Germany

Great Britain

0

1

2

3

16-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-45

Age at first birth

Results

Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, age at first birth, education, age of previous child

Sex Composition of Previous Children (Relative Risks)

2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks

0

1

2

all girls all boys mixed

Sex of previous child

West Germany

Great Britain

Great Britain

West Germany

0

1

2

girl boy

Sex of previous child

Results

0

1

2

married cohabiting single separated

Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, age at first birth, education, age of previous child

Marital Status (Relative Risks)

2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks

West Germany

Great Britain

0

1

2

married cohabiting single separated

West Germany

Great Britain

Results

Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

Female Education (Relative Risks)

West Germany Great Britain

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.98 1.29**

Vocational 1 1

University 1.42*** 1.58***

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.88 0.85

Vocational 1 1

University 1.52*** 1.48

Time Squeeze?

Results

0

1

2

3

4

0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6 6-8 8+

Age of previous child

Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, sex of previous children.

Second Birth Risks: Is there a Time-Squeeze?

West Germany Great Britain

No degree

University

Vocational

No degree

University

Vocational

0

1

2

3

4

0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6 6-8 8+

Age of previous child

Results

Third Birth Risks: Is there a Time-Squeeze?

West Germany Great Britain

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6 6-8 8+

Age of previous child

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6 6-8 8+

Age of previous child

UniversityVocationalNo degree

Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, sex of previous children.

UniversityVocationalNo degree

Results

Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

Female Education (Relative Risks)

West Germany Great Britain

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.98 1.29**

Vocational 1 1

University 1.42*** 1.58***

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.88 0.85

Vocational 1 1

University 1.52*** 1.48

Work Conditions?

Results

Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, age at first birth, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

Female Education (Relative Risks)

West Germany Great Britain

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.87 0.76*

Vocational 1 1

University 1.49*** 1.79**

Employment Status

Full-time 0.72** 0.42***

Part-time 0.91 0.55***

Not employed 1 1

Sector

Public 1.29* 0.73

Private 1 1

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.95 1.26*

Vocational 1 1

University 1.47*** 1.70***

Employment Status

Full-time 0.68* 0.45*

Part-time 1.15 0.70

Not employed 1 1

Sector

Public 1.14 0.97

Private 1 1

Results

Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, age at first birth, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

Female Education (Relative Risks)

West Germany Great Britain

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.98 1.29**

Vocational 1 1

University 1.42*** 1.58***

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.88 0.85

Vocational 1 1

University 1.52*** 1.48

Partner Effect?

Results

Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

Female Education (Relative Risks)

West Germany Great Britain

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.80 1. 28*

Vocational 1 1

University 1.30* 1.21

Male Education

No degree 0.98 1.21

Vocational 1 1

University 1.36*** 1.98***

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.87 0.83

Vocational 1 1

University 1.42** 1.67**

Male Education

No degree 1.04 1.10

Vocational 1 1

University 1.16 0.68

Results

Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, age at first birth, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

Female Education (Relative Risks)

West Germany Great Britain

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.98 1.29**

Vocational 1 1

University 1.42*** 1.58***

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.88 0.85

Vocational 1 1

University 1.52*** 1.48

Selectivity?

Results

Female Education (Relative Risks)

West Germany

2nd birth 3rd birth

Female Education

No degree 0.97 1.26**

Vocational 1 1

University 1.38** 1.53***

Place lived at age 15

Small town 1 1

Medium town 0.82** 0.84

Big city 0.88 0.69**

Father religious?

Protestant 1 1

Catholic 0.89 1.33

Not religious 0.62 0.97

Other 1.01 1.62

Results

Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, age of previous child, sex of previous children.

Female Income and the Next Child

0

1

Notemployed

Part-time lowearnings

mediumearnings

highearnings

West Germany

Great Britain

2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks

0

1

Notemployed

Part-time lowearnings

mediumearnings

highearnings

Great Britain

Results

West Germany

• Strong effect of partner‘s education on higher order birth risks.

Great Britain

• Elevated second and third birth risks for university educated women can partially be explained by “time squeeze”

• Work conditions matter (public/private sector)

• Very high female income matters for higher order birth risks.

Conclusion

Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung

www.demogr.mpg.de