FEE – EWEC 2006 Presentation 1

The take-off of wind energy development The take-off of wind energy development in France and the 2005 Energy Lawin France and the 2005 Energy Law

EWEC 2006 in Athens EWEC 2006 in Athens policies and programmes - 1 march 2006policies and programmes - 1 march 2006

Jean-Yves Grandidier

France Energie Eolienne

FEE – EWEC 2006 Presentation 2

Who is France Energie Eolienne ?

France Energie Eolienne, also called FEE is an association founded in 1996 with the following main objectives

To provide the authorities, the research and industrial organizations with enlightened assistance in order to develop wind power production on a larger scale

To promote the consumers’ interest towards wind power energy

To create a link between the French and the foreign sectors involved in the development of wind energy

FEE – EWEC 2006 Presentation 3

Who is France Energie Eolienne ?

Some studies and works carried out by our organization

 

Economical study and suggestions for an acceptable tariff

Definition of a new procedure for the access to the public network together with the grid operator

Study of the credit capacity of a 10 000 MW wind park in France

FEE – EWEC 2006 Presentation 4

The current situation and a realistic forecast for the next 2 years

With 370 MW installed in 2005, wind capacity has almost doubled in France last year

Forecast of installation

Year 2006 : 700 to 1000 MWYear 2007 : 1000 to 1500 MW

FEE – EWEC 2006 Presentation 5

The current situation vs FEE expectations

year rate of increase annual installed capacity (MW)

cumulative installed

capacity (MW)annual installed capacity (MW)

cumulative installed

capacity (MW)2000 70 2001 90 87 2002 57 147 52 139 2003 100% 114 261 99 238 2004 100% 228 489 144 382 2005 85% 422 911 374 756 2006 70% 717 1 628 700 1 456 2007 70% 1 219 2 847 1 300 2 756 2008 30% 1 585 4 432 2009 20% 1 902 6 333 2010 10% 2 092 8 425 2011 5% 2 196 10 621

actually or probably done (in italique)

Wind expectation done by FEE in 2002 in order to reach the target of

the RES directive for France

FEE – EWEC 2006 Presentation 6

The negative points of the current situation

Disastrous result of the offshore tender : on 500 MW opened and 1100 MW proposed only 100 MW have been selected french regulator is not ready to pay for offshore learning

Disapointing result of the onshore tender : 1. On 500 MW opened, only 480 MW proposed 2. Less than 300 MW selected

Application by the administration of the acoustic regulation is becoming more strict

Since july 2005 Ministry of Defence has forbidden wind park installation in a radius of 30 km around the military radars

FEE – EWEC 2006 Presentation 7

The positive points of the current situation

The 2003 RTE report about previsions of demand and production balance in 2010 :

Renouvables substitute mainly to conventional fuel or coal plant

The 2005 RTE study about large scale integration of wind : 10 000 MW give a credit capacity of 3 000 MW The 2005 RTE report about forecasts of demand and production balance

between 2010 and 2020 : 1000 MW of new production capacities are needed each year from 2009 on

With a wind capacity of 10 GW by 2011, Wind can fulfill the requirements of RTE

FEE – EWEC 2006 Presentation 8

The uncertainties of the current situation : what will be the tariff in the futur ?

Investors are facing a dramatic increase in the price of the turbines

A decrease by 3,3% in constant money + a decrease by 10 % after 1500 MW cannot be accepted

FEE has made proposals for a tariff which comply with the requirements of the law : Reference site : 6,25 m/s at 80 m hub height

Mechanism of modulation in order to have not an excessive profitability on the windiest sites

Wind speed at 80 m > 7 m/s > 6,5 > 6,25 > 6,0Cumulative capacity (MW) 3000-4000 6000 - 7000 8000 - 10000 12000 - 15000

FEE – EWEC 2006 Presentation 9

The uncertainties of the 2005 energy law: how will the ZDE be created (1)?

Driver : to avoid an « anarchic » development of the wind parks from a landscape point of vue

Provision : introduction of the area for the development of wind

energy (ZDE) defined by the prefet on a proposal of the interested local authorities.

These areas are defined according to the wind ressource, the grid capacity and the protection of the landscape

A minimum and maximum power are associated to the proposal of the interested local authorities

When a turbine is located in a ZDE : it is eligible to the administrative tariff

FEE – EWEC 2006 Presentation 10

The uncertainties of the 2005 energy law : how will the ZDE be created (2)?

The drawbacks of the law Problem of coherence : instead of acting on the land

planning law, the law acts on the electric law. Grid capacity is a prerequisit to define a ZDE.

This tool cannot be used for planification of the development of the transmission grid

Lack of precision

FEE – EWEC 2006 Presentation 11

Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention