News update

>> Fitch Affirms Abu Dhabi at ‘AA’; Outlook Stable

>> Dubai agrees roll-over of USD10bn crisis debt to UAE

>> MENA M&A deals reach USD50.7bn

>> UAE bourses should unify back offices even without merger: ADX CEO

>> Egypt’s Ratings Stabilised but Rapid Recovery Unlikely

>> Egypt unveils USD4.9bn stimulus package to prop up struggling economy

>> USD141bn FDI: Kingdom leads in Middle East

>> Emaar regains investment grade credit rating as Dubai booms

>> Infrastructure projects to drive Saudi sukuk surge

>> Buoyant Gulf still has to watch its spending habits

Marking time on a vintage dial

All time top leadership styles

Saudi authorities to meet 1m housing target

>> Read more >> Read more>> Read more >> Read more >> Read more

FEBRUARY 2014 Vol. 3 - No. 2

What emerging market crisis? C

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REN

CY

CO

RN

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Yuan falls as Chinese hard landing fears grip markets

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Marking time on a vintage dial By Rob Green

A watch, once thought of only as a means to tell time, is now anything but. The smartphone has replaced its essential time-telling function, which means its role has had to evolve.

A watch is a comforting presence around the wrist. A perfect complement peering out from under the cuffs of a new suit. A lesson in appreciation for superb painstaking craftsmanship. Or a hardy companion with a retro 70s digital display for going out on a long run.

Choosing a watch should be a hugely personal exercise. But that often isn’t the case. For instance, the number of gold Rolex in a room are directly and positively correlated with the net worth of people in that room. In no way is this to belittle Rolex – a brand whose watches still reliably appreciate over time; but convergence is not individualism.

Enter vintage watches. They are delicate sometimes, and perhaps a bit troublesome. A given rule is that they should be serviced before wearing to avoid a hard-to-replace part giving out.

But vintage watches offer the twin benefits of being easier on the pocket and far more full of personality and history than their contemporary brethren.

It’s a curious dichotomy – many up and coming executives choose a vintage Omega, Rolex or Zenith because they wouldn’t want to shell out for a brand new model. But at the other end of the spectrum are avid horologists whose automatic winding cabinets are replete with a collection of contemporary timepieces. They turn to vintage watches for their quirkiness, their historical significance and their minimal beauty. NOT ALL TIMEPIECES ARE CREATED EQUAL

All vintage watches have a certain personality, but not all are equally significant. The most notable ones have an association with a specific time and place, or have design cues that are direct antecedents to modern timepieces. For

instance, the rectangular hour markings on a modern Rolex Datejust can be found in a small 35-millimetre nine-carat gold Rolex dress watch harking back to the 1950s. Vintage watches with military provenance also have character and a certain cachet to go with them.

Or consider the popular 1969 Omega Speedmaster, which was ‘the first watch to be worn on the moon’. That model accompanied Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong on the Apollo 11 mission when mankind stepped onto the surface of the Earth’s only natural satellite. A vintage Jaeger Le Coultre Reverso brings back the days of Empire and colonial aristocracy, where British polo players were turning the watch face inwards to protect it while playing polo.

And then of course, there’s the Rolex Cosmograph Daytona ‘Paul Newman’ – one of the holy grails for vintage watch collectors. Or the ‘James Bond’ Rolex Submariner that was worn by Sean Connery for his early Bond films. Another popular choice is a ‘birth year watch’, built in the year of one’s birthday.

When is a watch neither too young nor too old? Watches in the 60s are considered ideal for vintage buyers starting out; they’re old enough for it to matter, yet technologically sound enough to be worn and be put to practical use WATCH OUT FOR FRAUD

But beware of fakes. Fortunately, there is a trove of information online to help you distinguish a genuine vintage from a forgery. Unfortunately,

the same information that helps you choose wisely helps others create better fakes that are difficult to differentiate from the real thing. It’s relatively easy to stamp military numbers to the back of old watches to make it seem it was issued by servicemen; or to dip a watch dial into tea for that aged patina. Another common trick is to build a vintage watch with a pastiche of parts, or disguise a new movement within an old casing.

In all cases, choose a reputable source. If a watch seems to be too good to be true, walk away. Chances are it’s too good to be true. Avoid dodgy dealers, and online sources without provenance. Don’t buy vintage watches out of the back of a van. You’ll deserve what you get. If possible, physical shops are better than the Internet – it’s hard to disappear with an entire shop. In all cases, caveat emptor: let the buyer beware – particularly if the source is unproven.

Now comes the arduous task of selecting exactly which vintage watch to buy. We could draw up lists and give normative recommendations. But that would defeat the individualism and expressiveness that is the point of it all, won’t it?. © Zawya

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SUCCESS SECRETS

All time top leadership stylesBy Alice Johnson

There are hundreds of different leadership styles around – from authoritative to democratic. Identifying what kind of leader you are in the first place is the first step to take when trying to improve upon your leadership skills. Initially, it’s also important not to confuse leaders with managers – while management is ‘doing things right’, leadership is ‘doing the right things’. “A leader is based on strength, not on titles – so you might find a leader that’s not necessarily in a managerial position,” Panos Manolopoulos, vice chairman and board member of executive search consultants, Stanton Chase International said.

He outlined his top leadership styles of all time:

1. Affiliated. Affiliated leaders create ‘affiliations’ with people – something that’s very successful in the Middle East. These

leaders give priority to individuals within organizations, making close personal bonds with them. This is not only applicable to smaller organizations, but larger companies too. This particular leadership style is popular in the Middle East, because of the huge diversity of people coming to work in the region from around the world.

2. Coaching. ‘Coaching’ leaders are “not ones trying to develop themselves, but the ones that try to make everyone else successful,” through building teams and highlighting individual strengths. This style of leadership is also very relevant for the Middle East.

3. Democratic. These leaders try not to impose regulations, but strive to gain consensus – they decide things as a group, or ask for the opinions of others. This is important for the Middle East, because a leader needs to encourage people to buy into hard decisions. “It’s a developing market and a volatile market, so people within an organization, through their leader has to have some kind of knowledge of the decisions being made,” he said. This may not be completely relevant to large family conglomerates.

4. Authoritative. Authoritative leaders mobilize people to a common mission and focus on the goals, while also giving means to the individuals to reach these goals. Using a coaching or democratic style with a team doesn’t necessarily work all the time – so some element of authoritative leadership needs to be blended with the aforementioned.

“Having a combination of all of these four can create a very successful leadership style,” Manolopoulos said.

Largely, a manager or a manager’s leader will express a leadership style that matches his or her personality. “Leaders can be nurtured, but they can also be born – natural born leaders. Elements of their leadership styles come from their personalities,” he continued. “If you are a people-orientated, social person who is sensitive to people’s needs, you cannot be a fully coercive, authoritative, pace-setting leader with a ‘take it or leave it’ attitude. The leadership style has to match the personality – if it’s doesn’t, it won’t work: it will be artificial,” he said.

So which are you, and do you want to change your style of leadership? This might be harder than you think. You can develop some elements, for instance of a coaching style or democratic style, but this can’t go against the personality or the style of the leader, Manolopoulos said. He himself has never been able to be a very successful, pace-setting, core, authoritative leader “even if I tried to”, he said, “because my elements are more towards being affiliative, coaching or democratic.” He’s a more socially-related person, who tends to mobilize people by creating good emotional bonds with them, rather than just being fearful of his position or authority.

“I could have done it, but it would fail and it wouldn’t be successful. Leaders are evaluated in tough times. So in tough times, you have

to use at least your full potential; and you cannot raise your full potential going against your personality, your inherent energies,” he concluded. © Zawya

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MARKETS UPDATE

What emerging market crisis?After a brief bout of nervousness, which threatened to derail a global equity rally, investors seem to have shrugged off emerging markets’ currency crisis.

The U.S. S&P500 is edging closer to yet another record close, as investors continue to jump headfirst into equity markets. Reuters data shows global investors injected USD 8.3 billion into U.S. equity funds last week alone.

Meanwhile, inflows into global stock funds stood at USD 13.4 billion —the biggest in 12 weeks.

Recent data from the United States has admittedly been weak, but most traders attribute it to inclement weather which has paralyzed much of the U.S. East Coast. The recent U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index hit its highest since May 2010 has comforted investors that the U.S. growth story remains intact.

Emerging markets have been more wary, especially with the political turmoil in Ukraine, and more crucially fears of a hard landing in China.

The sharp depreciation of the Chinese renminbi suggests that the country’s central bank is encouraging the currency to weaken in an effort to discourage speculative capital flows.

In the developed economies, the Japanese

central bank is promising more stimulus, while European Central Bank and the Bank of England have had some breathing room thanks to benign data coming out of Europe.

Developed economies are also fending criticism from emerging economies, which are suffering especially due to the U.S. monetary pull back.

“Emerging markets need to take steps of their own to get their fiscal house in order and put structural reforms in place,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said ahead of a ministerial meeting between G20 nations.

Meanwhile, if there is more trouble brewing in emerging markets, it is restrained for now. The MSCI’s all-country world equity index, which tracks shares in 45 countries, rose 0.3%. The index has risen 6% since early February and is just shy off a six-year high hit in early January.

Gulf markets remain on a tear this year, with

good corporate earnings and talks of a merger between Dubai and Abu Dhabi bourses further fuelled the rally.

However, some major funds are reducing their exposure on fears of an overheating market.

“We have noted the positive sentiment surrounding both Abu Dhabi and Dubai but are now beginning to (see) signs of speculative excess that warrants caution,” global asset manager Blackrock said in a portfolio update.

Analysts expect investors to switch to Qatar equities which, along with the UAE, will be upgraded by MSCI to emerging market status in the summer, but has seen a more moderate rally in the past 12 months.

Currency

The dollar has wobbled recently against major currencies such as the euro and Swiss franc, as economic data coming out of the U.S. has been less robust. The dollar has been at its lowest level against a basket of currencies since last December. The euro hit a high of USD 1.3759 against the dollar, leading to a third weekly loss for the greenback against the EU currency.

Oil

Supply concerns from Libya, Venezuela and Sudan helped Brent post its highest weekly close of the year at USD 110 per barrel. The U.S. Department of Energy recently revised global oil demand upward by 120,000 bpd to 92.6 million bpd this year, reflecting a

strengthening marcoeconomic backdrop.

Gold

The precious metal has risen 9% this year, although it is a long way away from its all-time high of USD 1,900 per ounce achieved three years ago. But analysts believe USD 1,300 per ounce remains high for retail investors and further dips are possible especially if the American dollar strengthens. © Zawya

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Current %Chg YTDOPEC Basket 107.15 -0.7Brent Spot 109.89 -0.8Nymex 1M Future 103.03 4.7Gold Spot 1,316.40 9.2USD / Yen 102.08 3.1Euro / USD 1.3717 -0.5Source: Zawya.com

COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES

Exchange Current %Chg YTD

Market Cap (USD Bn)

Bahrain (BAX) 1,365.90 9.4 19.7Kuwait (KWSE) 7,737.50 2.5 97.3Oman (MSI) 7,166.70 4.9 23.8Qatar (DSMI) 11,872.40 14.4 165.7S.Arabia (TASI) 8,988.90 5.3 482.1UAE (DFM) 4,182.90 24.1UAE (ADSM) 4,914.70 14.6S&P GCC 126.2 6.5 989

GCC MARKETS

Source: Zawya.com

200.6

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Saudi authorities to meet 1m housing targetSaudi Arabia’s residential construction activity has gathered steam in recent months as the kingdom looks to address chronic housing shortages.

The kingdom awarded contracts worth SAR40 billion in the real estate sector alone last year, and has poured massive amounts in related power and transportation projects.

The ministry of housing is working through its national housing strategy of building 500,000 homes over the next few years.

While the ministry dominated construction contract awards in the real estate space, accounting for 57% of the awards, the private sector is also gearing up.

Emaar Properties accounted for 29% of all real estate construction awards in the country last year. The UAE-based developer has a number of projects under development in the Kingdom, such as the Jeddah Gate and Al Khobar Lakes, which are mixed-use communities. The company’s Tadawul-listed subsidiary Emaar, The Economic City is developing King Abdullah Economic City – a massive residential and business development.

Earlier this year, the company also launched a joint venture with Saudi Arabia business group Abdul Latif Jameel to develop residential communities and master-planned communities.

A number of other local and regional real estate developers are actively building new residential housing amid rising demand. But while private developers are focusing on high-end housing, there is a clear need for affordable housing for average Saudis.

The Saudi population has been growing at an average rate of 2.7% annually over the past two decades – one of the highest growth rates in the world.

The kingdom has one of the youngest populations in the world, with two-thirds of Saudis under the age of 30. The average Saudi household includes nearly 6 people, but as young Saudis get married, they are increasingly looking to move out and settle into their own homes.

The size of the average household in Saudi stands at 5.9 people, but that figure is expected to continue declining in the future.

The combination of population growth and a smaller average household size is expected to result in the number of households rising faster than population growth. Some estimates show that the number of households will grow from

4.6 million in 2010 to 7 million by the end of the decade.

The Saudi Shoura Council recently noted that 73% of Saudis did not own their own homes, disputing a Ministry of Economy and Planning study that suggested that 60% of Saudis were home-owners.

While the Saudi Real Estate Development Fund (REDF) has raised loans limits from SAR 300,000 to SAR 500,000, rising construction costs mean most Saudis still far short of realizing their dream of owning their own abode.

The government estimates that Saudi Arabia will need an additional 1 million units over the next five years or around 250,000 new units annually.

Affordability, however, will remain key to the development, as an average home in the Kingdom costs 7.6 times of an average Saudi salary, compared to the global average of 3.4 times.

Saudi real estate market received a major shot in the arm after the authorities approved a mortgage law. Five major housing laws provide a blueprint for mortgage registration and foreclosure processes, and regulating leasing and financing companies, including those active in real estate. © Zawya

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Hosuing UnitsIncremental

DemandNew Housing Units (Saudis) 800,000New Housing Units (Non Saudis) 200,000Carry-over demand from the 8th plan 70,000Replacement of old housing units 70,00010% of Reserved Units 110,000Expected incremental demand 1,250,000Annual demand 250,000

SAUDI HOUSING DEMAND ESTIMATES

Source: Ministry of Economy and Planning

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Yuan falls as Chinese hard landing fears grip markets

Emerging market currency crisis is expected be a recurring theme this year, especially as the developed economies enjoy a period of relative stability.

“The ability of policymakers to effectively manage this vulnerability will vary, and outcomes will diverge,” noted the Eurasia Group. “Accordingly, we should expect higher dispersion of emerging market asset price movements. The evidence so far this

year points in that direction, with dispersion (measured as the standard deviation of weekly currency returns across our EM universe) moderately above the average level in 2013.”

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to taper has hit emerging market currencies hard and has triggered a capital outflow out of developing economies and into the equity and bond markets of OECD countries.

Analysts say that a 3-3.5% rate on U.S. Treasuries would likely discourage investors to consider volatile emerging market debt.

At centre stage is China, which is going through its own internal economic gyrations that the rest of the world does not quite understand.

The Chinese yuan fell to its lowest level in three years against the U.S. currency, as Beijing looks to stimulate its economy in the midst of a slowdown.

A decline in the Chinese economy could also have a knock-on impact on a number of other emerging markets including Turkey, South Africa, Thailand and Nigeria.

The Chinese central bank has been guiding the yuan weakness, and analysts believe that the regulators are setting the stage for a devaluation of the yuan against major currencies.

Still others think that Beijing has demonstrated that it is willing to sacrifice medium-term growth in the interest of pursuing long-term

financial sector reforms and its interference in the currency markets is merely to widen the yuan’s trading band to give itself more flexibility to snuff out short-sellers.

Meanwhile, the U.S dollar has been strengthening across most currencies.

“The U.S. dollar has also had its biggest weekly advance against the yen this year, with the minutes of the January 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting U.S. dollar suggesting strong support for continued tapering,” said the Institute of International Finance.

The dollar traded at 102.37 against the yen on February 25.

Moreover, the G20 communique has also been USD-supportive, suggesting backing for normalization of monetary policy.

However, the International Monetary Fund is warning of risks ahead, which could undermine confidence in emerging market currencies.

“Capital outflows, higher interest rates, and sharp currency depreciation in emerging economies remain a key concern and a persistent tightening of financial conditions could undercut investment and growth in some countries given corporate vulnerabilities,” the IMF said in a statement to meeting of the world’s 20 largest economies in Sydney, Australia.

“A new risk stems from very low inflation

in the euro area, where long-term inflation expectations might drift down, raising deflation risks in the event of a serious adverse shock to activity.”

Meanwhile, the euro has held its own against the U.S. dollar at USD 1.3750 this year, and analysts are divided whether the euro would strengthen against the greenback this year, especially if the European Central Bank does not initiate a rate cut in April.© Zawya

CURRENCY CORNER

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NEWS UPDATES

Fitch Affirms Abu Dhabi at ‘AA’; Outlook StableFitch Ratings has affirmed Abu Dhabi’s Long-term foreign and local currency IDRs at ‘AA’ with Stable Outlooks. The issue ratings on Abu Dhabi’s senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds are also affirmed at ‘AA’. The Short-term foreign currency IDR has been affirmed at ‘F1+’. The Country Ceiling, which also applies to Ras al-Khaimah, has been affirmed at ‘AA+’ – Reuters

Read full article

Dubai agrees roll-over of USD10bn crisis debt to UAEDubai has reached agreement on rolling over USD 10 billion in debt extended by the central bank of the United Arab Emirates during the global financial crisis, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The emirate borrowed the money five years ago to help the sovereign and its government-related entities (GREs) avoid default during the crisis, when Dubai’s real estate market crashed and loan markets froze. – Reuters

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MENA M&A deals reach USD50.7bnAccording to EY’s 2013 year-end MENA mergers and acquisitions (M&A) update, announced deal values in the region rose from USD 44.8 billion in 2012 to USD 50.7 billion in 2013, an increase of 13%. – Arab News.

Read full article

UAE bourses should unify back offices even without merger: ADX CEOStock markets in the United Arab Emirates should unify their back office operations and processes for settlement and regulation, the chief executive of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange ( ADX ) said.- Reuters

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Egypt’s ratings stabilised but rapid recovery unlikelyIn early January 2014 Fitch took Egypt’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency rating off negative outlook for the first time since January 2011. Over this period Egypt’s ratings were downgraded by a cumulative five notches. We expect economic performance to improve over our two-year forecast period but by end-2015 the economy will still be much weaker than in 2010, illustrating the damage to Egypt’s credit profile caused by political and economic turmoil. – Reuters

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Egypt unveils USD4.9bn stimulus package to prop up struggling economyEgypt’s interim government unveiled its second stimulus package on Monday, which will inject 33.9 billion Egyptian pounds (USD 4.87 billion) into the economy, with most of that money coming from aid pledged by the United Arab Emirates.

Previously the finance ministry said Egypt planned to spend around 30 billion Egyptian pounds. The first stimulus package, amounting to 30 billion pounds, was launched in August. – Reuters

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USD141bn FDI: Kingdom leads in Middle EastSaudi Arabia is in top position when it comes to drawing foreign direct investment (FDI) in the entire Middle East, having attracted USD 141 billion during the past five years.

Revealing this, Commerce and Industry Minister Tawfiq Al-Rabiah said: “These investments, together with government spending of USD 718 billion, were instrumental in spurring economic growth.” – Arab News

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Emaar regains investment grade credit rating as Dubai boomsDubai’s largest real estate developer Emaar Properties regained an investment-grade credit rating, marking the emirate’s strong recovery from its financial crisis five years ago.

Standard and Poor’s raised its long-term rating of Emaar to BBB-minus, the lowest investment grade, from BB-plus. In 2009, S&P had cut the state-linked firm to junk status as the global credit crunch and a crash of Dubai’s property market ravaged balance sheets in the emirate. – Reuters

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Infrastructure projects to drive Saudi sukuk surgeInfrastructure projects are expected to drive Saudi Arabia’s sukuk issuance in the years ahead as government, corporates and banks tap into the liquidity of what is still an evolving bond market that faces challenges common to other GCC countries.

According to Khalid Nasser Al Muammar, chief executive of Saudi Hollandi Capital, issuance for the infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia will continue. – Gulf News

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Buoyant Gulf still has to watch its spending habitsThe modest pick-up in oil prices recently amounts to yet another reminder that consensus expectations will often be wrong, or at least misleading as a guide to the short-term outlook. Gold’s turnabout belongs in the same category of behaviour.

That’s not only logical, as immediate market volatilities may well drown out the underlying fundamentals applying over time, but also to be expected if you consider the efficiency (even imperfect) of international, liquid markets in discounting anticipated factors. Once everyone is talking about the next big thing, it’s already ‘in the price’. – Gulf News

Read full article. © Zawya

NEWS UPDATES

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