Upload
michael-hancock
View
215
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
February 2012 Employment Release
Citation preview
February 2012 U.S. employment situation: Labor market coming back to life
733,000 jobs added over the last three months; unemployment rate stable at 8.3 percent in February
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Monthly employment changeUnemployment rate
Job growth positive for last 17 months
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
220,000
121,000 120,000110,000
220,000
246,000 251,000
54,000
84,00096,000
85,000
202,000
112,000
157,000
223,000
284,000
227,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000Oc
t-10
Nov-1
0
Dec-1
1
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar-1
1
Apr-1
1
May-1
1
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
Oct-1
1
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
Total non-farm monthly employment change
92
94
96
98
100
102
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52
Number of months after start of recession
1973 1981 1990 2001 2007
Recessions:
Perce
nt
Past 40 years
However, we are still two to three “good” years away from “normal” and previous peak levels
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs lost during recession…
Jobs gained during recovery…
Hiring is improving, yet only a third of jobs recovered from the recession so far
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Change in '000s jobs
Private Sector Public Sector
Private sector hiring gaining momentum; public sector remains a drag
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Private sector hiring up 3.7 million since March 2010
Public sector shed 506,000 workers since March 2010
Job growth positive in both service industries (office jobs) and production industries
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012
Goods-producing Service-producing
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Office-using (PBS) jobs lost during recession…
Office-using (PBS) jobs gained during recovery…
Office-using job performance outweighing overall growth by considerable amount as productivity levels snap
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Where the jobs are coming from…PBS leads job growth in February, helping future office gains
-13-7.4
-6-6
-10
5.666
8.410.6
243131
4445.2
61.171
82
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100
ConstructionRetail trade
Other servicesGovernmentInformation
Nondurable goodsMotor vehicles and parts.
Mining and loggingFinancial activities
Wholesale tradeTransportation and warehousing
Goods-producingManufacturingDurable goods
Leisure and hospitalityTemporary help services
Health care and social assistanceEducation and health services
Professional and business services
February 2012 - One month net change (ths)Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
PBS hiring continues to drive office job growth
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2009 2010 2011 2012
Information Professional and Business Services Financial Services
P&BS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010by February 2012, it represented 94.3 percent of office growth
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Temporary employment grew rapidly in February, an indicator of future office employment growth (this time around)…
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2009 2010 2011 2012
Month
ly ne
t cha
nge i
n job
s (ths
)
Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Temporary employment (ths)
Industry segmentation: It is all about jobs and tech and energy are kings
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
Energy, high-tech and office using sectors outperform overall economy since 2011
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year over Year % change
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Note: Due to inconsistencies and data lags, January and February 2012 do not have all high-tech subsections aggregated.Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, economy.com
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose slightly March 3rd, yet still 10.6 percent lower than a year ago
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
1-Mar-08 1-Mar-09 1-Mar-10 1-Mar-11 1-Mar-12
Initial claims 4-week moving average
4 week moving average below 400,000 claims (consistently) means economy is adding jobs
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, US Department of Labor
Total unemployment beginning to decline, still well above long-term average
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total unemployment U-6 Ten year average
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college
White collar unemployment far below overall levels
4.2%
8.3%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
75.5
76
76.5
77
77.5
78
78.5
79
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-1259
59.5
60
60.5
61
61.5
62
62.5
63
63.5College graduatesHigh school grads no college
Labor force participation for college grads improved in February, yet rates still low
College graduates High school graduates
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bay Area2.6%
Tech, energy and Sunbelt markets leading metro markets in total non-farm employment
Houston3.0%
Tampa2.6%
Pittsburgh2.4%
Seattle2.3%
San Diego2.2%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Philadelphia-0.2%
Larger Midwest and East coast markets lagging
Cleveland-0.2%
Atlanta0.0%
Chicago0.4%
DC0.4%
New York0.6%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Atlanta
Boston
ChicagoDallas
DenverDetroit
Houston
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Miami
New York
PhiladelphiaPhoenix
Pittsburgh
SF SeattleSt. Louis
DC
050
100150200250300350400450
2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00%
Regionally, the West and South will lead employment growth through 2014
Bubble size represents total employment
Adding jobs
Addi
ng jo
bs
Job growth Q1 2012-Q4 2014
% job growth
Numb
er of
jobs
(tho
usan
ds)
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Global Insight