February 2007 in Jakarta, Indonesia

A New Proposal for the Research Program to Promote Science and Technology for FY 2007-09

Strategic Promotion of Collaborationsin Science and Technology in Asia

International Research Projectfor Prevention and Mitigationof Meteorological Disasters

A New Proposal for the Research Program to Promote Science and Technology for FY 2007-09

Strategic Promotion of Collaborationsin Science and Technology in Asia

International Research Projectfor Prevention and Mitigationof Meteorological Disasters

PI: Shigeo YODENKyoto University

in collaboration with MRI/JMA and ITB/Indonesia

PI: Shigeo YODENKyoto University

in collaboration with MRI/JMA and ITB/Indonesia

平成 19 年度科学技術振興調整費新規提案課題

アジア科学技術協力の戦略的推進1 - 1 　自然災害への対応に資する防災科学技術分野の研究開発

東南アジア地域の気象災害軽減国際共同研究

平成 19 年度科学技術振興調整費新規提案課題

アジア科学技術協力の戦略的推進1 - 1 　自然災害への対応に資する防災科学技術分野の研究開発

東南アジア地域の気象災害軽減国際共同研究

研究代表者：　余田 成男代表機関：　京都大学

国内参画機関：　気象庁 気象研究所国外参画機関：　インドネシア バンドン工科大学

研究代表者：　余田 成男代表機関：　京都大学

国内参画機関：　気象庁 気象研究所国外参画機関：　インドネシア バンドン工科大学

Experimental downscale NWPs in SE Asia　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　↓ Research and development of　 “ Decision support system for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters”

Establishment of “International Scientist-Network for Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological disasters in SE Asia”

Purpose

(a) Experimental downscale NWPs in the tropics with meso-scale models

(b) Assessments of the impact of new observational data on NWPs with advanced data assimilation schemes

(c) Development of a unified data base and “Decision support system for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters”

(+) International collaborations through workshops and short/long visits

Major Research Subjects

(a) Experimental downscale NWPs in the tropics with meso-scale models

　　

GSM

MSM

1.5km-NHM

気象庁

(Slingo, 2006)

Dr. Tri W. Hadi and his PC cluster (ITB)

Recent attempt by Pak Tri at ITB

WEB page of Climate Prediction Laboratory (WCPL) http://weather.geoph.itb.ac.id/

Kyoto Univ.EAR at Koto Tabang, West Sumatra, Indonesia

(b) Assessments of the impact of new observational data on NWPs with advanced data assimilation schemes

GPS-LEO occultation techniques for T and water vapor

advanced data assimilation

With4D-VAR or EnKF

advanced data assimilation

With4D-VAR or EnKF

Unified Data Exchange System

ファイル形式の隠蔽 etc

Distributed Data Management System

研究者 ユーザー利用

THORPEX

(c) Development of a unified data base

“Decision support system for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters”

WMO(2005) THORPEX: A World Weather Research Program

International Workshop on Regional Models for the Prediction

of Tropical Weather and Climate

International Workshop on Regional Models for the Prediction

of Tropical Weather and Climate

March 1~3, 2006 at Sheraton Bandung Hotel & Tower,Indonesiasponsored by KAGI21

March 1~3, 2006 at Sheraton Bandung Hotel & Tower,Indonesiasponsored by KAGI21

(+) International collaborations through workshops and short/long

visits

Research Groups

流動型ポスドク研究員

モデル共同開発データ共同利用

国際的技術協力

(1) Fundamental Research and System Development

Kyoto University メソモデルを用いた熱帯域気象のダウンスケール予報実験 最新データ同化システムの試験開発と機動的観測データのインパクト実験 観測・予報データ統合データベース・気象災害対策判断支援システム試作 国際研究集会の開催と国際的技術協力

(2) Operational Model Development

MRI/JMA 気象庁モデルの精緻化と検証実験 メソモデル国際共同研究への環境整備 メソモデル熱帯域データ同化実験

(3) Near-Real Time Experiment

ITB, NTU, and some others

東南アジア域ダウンスケール予報の　　準リアルタイム実用化実験 バンドン工科大学内外における国際　　共同研究推進組織の立上げ

国際ワークショップ・研修スクールの開催等

若手研究者長期短期滞在型研究　

機動的共同観測モデル共同開発

International relationship of colleagues in Kyoto University in SE and S Asia

Bangladesh ：　 B.I.T. ・ Mohammad Nazrul Islam 　　 Hayashi, Satomura

Cambodia ：　　　　　　　　　 SatomuraIndia ：　 NCMRWF ・ V.S. Prasad 　 　 Hayashi, TsudaIndonesia ：　 ITB ・ Emmy Suparka, Tri W. Hadi, ・・・ 　　　　　　　 BMG ・ Mezak A. Ratag 　 　 Tsuda, Shiotani, YodenLaos ：　 DMH ・ Palikone Thalongsengchanh 　 　 Yoden, SatomuraMalaysia ：　 MNU ・ Fredolin T. Tangang　　　　　　　 DM ・ Mohan K. Sammathuria 　 　 Satomura, TsudaNepal ：　　　　　　　　　 Satomura, Hayashi, IshikawaPhillipine ：　 PNU ・ Josefina C. Argete　　　　　　　 Manila Obs. ・ Mariano Estoque 　 　 SatomuraSaudi Arabia ：　　　　　　　　　 IshikawaSingapore ：　 NTU ・ Tieh Yong Koh, Lan Yi, ・・・　 　 YodenThai ：　 TMD ・ Somchai Baimoung, Kam Promasakha 　 　 Satomur

aVitenam ：　 Hanoi Univ. ・ Kieu Thi Xin, Duc Le 　 　 Shiotani, Satom

ura

(1)Histories

Kyoto University has unique tradition in field survey in SE Asia and Africa (natural science and liberal arts)

JMA is one of the most advanced forecast centers with a brilliant history of NWPs in the 20 century

MOU on collaborations in research and education between Kyoto Univ. and ITB in 2006

Backgrounds and Prospects

(2) Advances in computer technologyExponential growth in the last half century

computational speedmemory size

The Earth Simulator

R&D Center

http://www.es.jamstec.go.jp/esc/jp/index.html

ENIAC

http://ei.cs.vt.edu/~history/

ENIAC.Richey.HTML

These years are exciting period in NWPs and climate simulations!

An example in climate change simulationsClimateprediction.net

http://www.climateprediction.net/ 108,000 participants from 188 countries (as of February, 2007)

Stainforth et al. (2005) “Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels

of greenhouse gases”. Nature, 433, 403-406

(3) Recent activities International workshop/meeting on meso-scale NW

Ps １）　 KAGI21 “International Workshop on Regional Models

for the Prediction of Tropical Weather and Climate” （ March 2006, Bandung, Indonesia) about 30 participants from 9 countries of ASEAN/Japan ２）　 3rd AOGS annual meeting “Applied Mesoscale Numer

ical Weather Prediction in SE Asia” （ July 2006, Singapore) 30 ～ 40 participants

(4) Societal needs/merits

Potential increase of the risk of high-impact weather associated with global warming and/or economical development

Usefulness of new knowledge on tropical meteorology with application to NWSs of hot and humid weather (Typhoon, BAIU front, ・・・ )

Better international relationship through collaborations with highly-talented young scientists in SE Asia on the research of advanced NWPs

(5) Economical values

Design of optimum observation system for NWPs

Impact of high-resolution information on risk management (floods, stormy winds, etc.), water-resource management, ・・・

Utilization of probability information obtained by ensemble NWPs in the fields of aviation, transportation, industry, agriculture, commerce, ・・

Environmental issues with longer time scales: global warming, air pollution with long-range transport, ・・・

Final Remarks

提供： JAXA

WINDS (Wideband InterNetworking engineering test and Demonstration Satellite)

will be launched in 2007Test use to transfer global GPV data of medium-range ensemble forecasts

A review paper on “Atmospheric Predictability”

Yoden (2007)Special Issue of J. Met. Soc. Japan on 125 ｔｈ anniversary of the foundation of MSJContents:

1. A historical perspective 2. Theories on atmospheric predictability 3. Ensemble numerical weather predictions 4. THORPEX challenges 5. Concluding remarks

Backup Slides

大　学・研究機関　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　フロンティア・ＥＳＣ・電力中研・他

気象庁

実験的気象予測研究プラットフォーム現業予報解析システム・現業データの提供

気象庁と大学・研究機関との統一インターフェイス

次期予報解析システムの提案

現予報解析システムの改良点指摘

次世代予報解析システム実験

事例解析・ハインドキャスト実験

共同研究契約の一括締結