Feasible Ambition

Climate Goals for New Zealand in 2030

8 July, 2015

Clean Energy

and

Climate Change Futures

Foreword to NZ’s 6th National

Communication to UNFCCC – Dec.2013

Minister Tim Groser

“The emissions reduction

opportunities available to other

nations through conversion to

renewables, mass public transport

and energy efficiency in industry,

have already been done or have far

less scope in New Zealand”

There are in fact many

opportunities to use low

carbon renewables, to

reduce energy demand,

and to lower emissions

from the power, heat

and transport sectors.

a) Renewables: Around 40% primary energy.

Electricity has reached an 82.8% share.

Target of 90% by 2025 possible given around 4000 MW of

renewable power generation already consented.

Lots of low hanging renewable heat from biomass, solar

and geothermal.

Transport options include advanced biofuels, electric light

rail and EVs – linked with Smart Grids.

b) Mass public transport: Working fairly well in Wellington.

Growing in Auckland.

Much potential elsewhere given correct investments - as

opposed to putting all our eggs into the one transport

basket of roads.

c) Energy efficiency in industry: Has been adopted to some

degree, after over 20 years of EECA support.

However, there remains a huge amount more that can be

achieved for short payback periods by both large and small

businesses.

5

Germany’s commitment is far more ambitious The amazing Reichstag building

(designed by Lord Norman Foster and

that houses the Bundesag,) and other

nearby buildings, are heated and

cooled solely by renewable energy –

mainly ground source heat pumps and

heat from four biodiesel engines that

also drive power generators that links

with around 40kW of rooftop solar PV

to meet the electricity demand.

Buildings are

certified for

their energy

use as in this

example from

a 120 year old

house.

Community owned

and shared EVs are

common place – but

unlike London where

EVs are free of

parking fees and

congestion charges,

just yesterday I saw

this one with a

parking ticket.

Cycles are beginning to

dominate and trams provide a

great service.

Overall there appears to be a

cultural acceptance that we all

have to move to low-carbon

technologies. Even many of

the autobahns now have

speed limits.

What has Richie McCaw got in common with Martin Winterhorn?

One is captain of the All Blacks -

- the other (is) was the captain of Volkswagen.

Both are involved with major business and brands.

Both push the boundaries and rules to get results.

Both have recently been caught out for cheating.

Both paid the penalty!

This epitomises that few businesses have a real

commitment to climate mitigation or the environment.

To make any significant lowering of emissions will

need strong regulations and/or high carbon prices.

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

9

NZ Energy sector emissions 1990 to 2013

and projections to 2030.

Both scenarios are technically achievable,

but if to be achieved will need strong

government support at both the national

and local levels – starting from now.

New Zealand cities are

already making good

progress.

Palmerston North is one

example meeting > 30%

of own power demand.

• 1 MW hydro in the city

water supply;

• Landfill gas / sewage

gas CHP plants;

• 100kW solar PV on the

council building roof;

• Energy efficiency

measures to match –

e.g. LED street lights.

The Royal Society has established a Climate

Change Mitigation Panel aiming not just to produce

yet another report but to be more innovative in

seeking solutions with valued co-benefits.

Based on the current scientific knowledge,

including social science, the Panel aims to provide

insights on:

• which future technologies might have an impact,

• what the uncertainties might be,

• what steps are critical to the adoption and

implementation of technologies or changes in

behaviour, and

• what priority research, development and

demonstration should be undertaken.

Of the $96.5 million MBIE funding

round for “innovative and exciting

research projects over the next four

years”, the $12 million for energy

was for just two projects –

both are on oil and gas exploration!

How can New Zealand ever hope to

change to a low-carbon society with

that sort of public R&D support?

Public RD&D investment in clean energy

13

Parihaka

epitomises a

glimmer of

hope.

The residents are aiming

for a more sustainable

future as their community

grows – and research has

begun through a MBIE

grant “Passive Resistance

to Climate Change”.