Feasibility Study

Jonathan Calderwood June 14, 2013

West Shore CommunitiesFeasibility of Sustainable Transportation with Passenger Ferry Service.

Demographic Summary

1808 Surveys were completed.

78% were employed or self-employedMajority of responses were from target communities.

628 responses were received from working commuters. Of that:

486 responses were from West Shore residents that work in the Victoria core. - 383 travel by private vehicle.

- 324 said they would use the ferry service. (66.7%)

142 responses were from Victoria residents working in the West Shore. - 106 travelled by private vehicle

- 75 said they would use the ferry service. (52.8%)

Problem Statement

The increasing demand for transportation capacity between the West Shore communities and Victoria is a potentially limiting factor for growth opportunities in the West Shore.

West Shore communities needed to develop sustainable methods to deal with growth.

Problem Focus

The West Shore is the fastest growing area in the province.

Langford grew 30% in 5 years (5.4% per year 2006 to 2011)

outpacing growth elsewhere in BC.

Colwood experienced a growth rate of 11.4% over the same period, larger than BC’s average rate.

Proposed Solution

Walk-on passenger ferry service between the West Shore & downtown Victoria.

Survey Results

.77.3% of respondent passenger vehicle commuters would use the service 4.7 X (+/- 2.4) week for return trips.

•SOV commuters were willing to use the service 2.6 X week.

•96% of transit users would to use the ferry instead of the bus.

•2 of 350 passenger vessels required.

Please note limitations observed in feasibility study and review of possible self-selection bias.

Predicted Demand

The demand survey found: 7,140 West Shore residents would commute to Victoria using the West Shore Ferry for employment purposes.(of 10,705 working commuters)

1,003 Core Victoria residents would commute to West Shore using the West Shore Ferry for employment purposes.(of 1,900 working commuters)

1342 survey respondents indicated they would use the service.

3340 of 3479 Transit users would shift to using the ferry for commuting.

Current Commuter Options

Two options currently exist for commuters:

Mode 1 – Private Transportation:Highest usage ratesGreatest FlexibilityShortest Trip Duration

Mode 2 – Bus Transit via BC Transit6.4% capture rate (% of total commuting population)Fixed schedulesLong duration with restricted mobility

Proposed Options

Several proposed options are being presented as solutions.

1 – VRRTP – BC Transit’s Rapid Transit System:Highest capacity – 19178 commuters per day at capacityVery High Capital Costs - $49,500 per passenger at capacity ($264,000 per at

7.5% cap.)Low operational costs - $442 person per yr at capacity ($2,357 per at 7.5% cap.)

2 – E&N Island Rail ServiceLow Capacity – 1600 commuters per day at capacityHigh Capital Costs - $122,400 per passenger at capacity (cannot reach 7.5%

cap.)High operational costs - $5,301 person per yr at capacity

Proposed Options

Several proposed options are being presented as solutions.

3 – Langford Community Rail Service:Low capacity – 2792 commuters per day at capacityLow Capital Costs - $1,934 per passenger at capacity (cannot reach 7.5% cap.)Median operational costs - $1,266 person per yr at capacity

4 – Additional Transit BusLow Capacity – 266 commuters per day at capacityLowest Capital Costs - $1,579 per passenger at capacityHigh operational costs - $3,132 person per yr at capacity

WSCC Proposal

Proposed West Shore Ferry Option.

5 – West Shore Ferry:High capacity – 9450 commuters per day at capacityLow Capital Costs - $2,761 per passenger at capacity ($7,251 per at 7.5% cap.)Median operational costs - $1,539 person per yr at capacity ($4,042 per at 7.5%

cap.)

Projections

Various capture rates were used to determine service feasibility.

A range of commuter capture rates, from a low of 1.9% of commuters to the high capture rate of the 77%, were used to determine vessel requirements.

Projections - Vessels

Best Vessels : 300-350 passenger vessels.

2 vessels in concurrent operation.

Recommended Service Offering

Recommended Service Offering

Cost effective offering.

Can accommodate all existing transit users

Plus will transport additional 5,000 passengers a day.

Offers better comfort levels than transit.

Available Vessels

Vessel selection was narrowed down to several 350 passenger mono or catamaran hull vessels available on the market today.

Terminal Locations

Many locations are available in the Inner Harbour, whereas only one location appears to be available on the West Shore, namely the Royal Bay development, however the use of this location needs to be confirmed.

Recommended Ownership & Operation

The West Shore Chamber should promote the use of a Non-Profit Organization in the form of a Traditional Public Ownership Model. This offers:

- Complete control over mission & policies- Best control and return for the participant communities- Total ownership of operational costs (& potential profits) from developing & operating the ferry service

AlternativeOwnership & Operation

An alternative exists:

BC Transit could provide ferry services between the West Shore communities and Victoria.

Capital Requirements

The project’s capital cost isto build suitable facilities and purchase used vessels.

$26 million

Financing Requirements

If the municipalities chose to select BC Transit as the operator of choice, then

BC Transit has access to substantial provincially sourced funds to finance the capital costs of this service through sections 27 through 31 of the Transit Act.

Projections

Cost projections, profitability, subsidy requirements were analyzed based on these varying capture rates.

The service operates at break-even when:

4,000 individuals use the service 365 days a year.

or

5,700 weekday commuters utilize the service.

Projections

Services Comparison

Subsidy Requirements

The West Shore Ferry service is unlikely to be self-financing at startup as demand may not be sufficient to cover all expenses.

Expected Subsidy Requirements with50% Transit User Capture Rate1800 daily return trip commuters

Subsidy Requirements

As demand (through increased awareness) increases for this service, subsidy requirements will decrease.

Expected Subsidy Requirements with100% Transit User Capture Rate3600 daily return trip commuters

Subsidy Requirements

To put the subsidy requirement into perspective, a comparison of subsidy requirements for BC Transit & BC Ferries is shown.

BC Ferries Revenues West Shore Ferry Revenues BC Transit Revenues

25% subsidyExcludes terminal subsidies & duty remission.

14.3% subsidy 73% subsidy

Conclusion & Recommendation

The results of the demand survey indicate that demand for this service exists. Although the demand seems very high, it does correlate with community sentiment for this service.

The WSCC has the opportunity to capitalize on this demand by coordinating a group of representatives from participant municipalities directly affected by, and that directly benefit from, the implementation of this passenger ferry service.

Conclusion & Recommendation

With growth in the West Shore Communities expected to add 33% more people to the existing population in the next decade, the existing highway capacity will not meet the future needs of the populations of the two core communities.

The development and utilization of alternate transportation methods is a necessary step for growth in the West Shore Communities.

The decision to discuss funding, development and operation of this commuter passenger ferry service should be made as soon as possible.