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1 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
13 FEBRUARY 2019
PRESENTED BY MARC TOWNSEND
CHAIRMAN, CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST
2019
WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?
CONTENTS
OVERVIEW
INFRASTRUCTURE
LAND
RETAIL
OFFICE
RESIDENTIAL
TOURISM & HOSPITALITY
3 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
Source: National Bank of Cambodia, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Asian Development Bank, World Bank & IMF
Source: National Bank of Cambodia & CBRE Research
Real Estate Indicators 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4
Prime Condo Price (USD/SQM) 3,108 3,126 3,168 3,212 3,147 3,211 3,226 3,260
Prime Office Rent (USD/SQM/Month) 22.2 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.3 25.6
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
* Average rate of ACLEDA, UCB, Canadia, Vattanac, Maybank, Bank of China, CIMB & ABA
Economic Indicators 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F
GDP (Bn USD) 14.1 15.3 16.7 18.2 20.2 22.06 23.68 25.88
GDP Growth (%) 7.3 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 6.8
GDP Per Capita (USD) 973 1,042 1,135 1,171 1,265 1,372 1,451 1,563
Inflation (%) 2.9 2.9 3.9 1.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.3
No. of Foreign Tourist Arrivals (Million) 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.6 6.2 N/A
Banking and Finance 2016 H1 2016 H2 2017 H1 2017 H2 2018 H1 2018 H2
KHR/USD (Official) 4,084 4,037 4,086 4,039 4,032 N/A
1-Year USD Lending rate (%)* 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.42 N/A
1-Year USD Deposit rate (%)* 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.35 4.41 N/A
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CAMBODIA DASHBOARD
4 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
Source: National Bank of Cambodia & World Bank
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
ECONOMIC GROWTH: CAMBODIA VS. ASEAN-5 VS. WORLD
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Cambodia ASEAN-5 World
2017 2018E 2019F
5 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
Source: National Bank of Cambodia and Ministry of Economic and Finance
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CREDIT AND CONSTRUCTION SECTOR
18.2%
13.7%
21.4%
18.2%
20.6%
17.0%
18.1%17.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019p
48.6%
32.7%
20.9%
29.8%32.1%
23.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GROWTH OF CREDIT TO CONSTRUCTION SECTOR (JAN-OCT)
Source: National Institute of Statistic 2012-2017,
Ministry of Economic and Finance (2018-2019)
GROWTH IN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR TO MAINTAIN STRONG GROWTH DESPITE CREDIT SLOWDOWN.
6 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
Source: ASEAN Briefing, The ASEAN Post, The Diplomat
MINIMUM WAGES – REGIONAL COMPARISONS (USD/MONTH)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Thailand * China * Vietnam * Cambodia Laos Myanmar
USD
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CAMBODIA’S MINIMUM WAGE VS. THE REGION
*The lowest minimum wage rate in the country
8 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CAMBODIA MORTGAGE MARKET
Source: CBRE Research
6.88% - 14%
Annual Interest Rate
Loan-to-Value
Payment Term
60% - 80%
Up to 25 years
9.6% - 18%
70% - 80%
Up to 15 years
12%
90% - 100%
Up to 17 years
COMMERCIAL BANKS MFIs DEVELOPERS
9 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CAMBODIA CONSUMER LOANS
Source: Credit Bureau Cambodia 2019
51.7%47.6%
0.8%
Personal Finance Mortgage Credit card
CONSUMER LOAN BALANCE
$6.24B
2.07%
1.66%
0.64%
Credit Card Personal Finance Mortgage
NPL
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CAMBODIA’S MOST VULNERABLE
11 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CAMBODIA’S MOST VULNERABLE
12 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIASource: Phnom Penh Post
FLOODED AREAS AS OF JULY 2018
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
LOCATIONS OF FLOODED AREAS IN CAMBODIA
13 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
RAPID TRANSFORMATION OF SIHANOUKVILLE
Photo: John Dough
14 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
J A N 2 0 1 7Source: EARTHRISE
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
RAPID TRANSFORMATION OF SIHANOUKVILLE
M AY 2 0 1 8
Photo from EARTHRISE Photo from EARTHRISE
15 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
TOTAL CASINO LICENCES
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2017 2018
53% INCREASE
59%
41%
Sihanoukville Others
SIHANOUKVILLE’S SHARE OF CASINOS
Source: asianews.it
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CAMBODIA’S CASINOS ON THE RISE
16 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
COMPETITION IN CASINO INDUSTRY
17 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
GLOBAL POLITICS AND CAMBODIA
Photo: Khmer Times
18 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
GLOBAL POLITICS AND CAMBODIA
19 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
THE US-CHINA TRADE WAR
20 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
€2
.0
€2
.5
€3
.0
€4
.1
€4
.6
€5
.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
VALUE OF PREFERENTIAL IMPORTS FROM CAMBODIA TO EU (IN BILLION EUROS)
66%
18%
4%4%
8%
Bangladesh 66%
Cambodia 18%
Mozambique 4%
Myanmar 4%
All other 8%
PREFERENTIAL IMPORTS FROM EBA BENEFICIARIES IN 2016
Source: European Commission 2018
Source: European Commission 2018
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CAMBODIA AND “EVERYTHING BUT ARMS”
CAMBODIA
BANGLADESH
21 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP
23 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
GLOBAL POLITICS AND CAMBODIA
Impact of Brexit on Cambodia and other EBA Countries
Source: German Development Institute
Exports Real GDP Consumption-1.7% -1% -1.4%
24 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
Source: The World Bank
CHINA ANNUAL GDP GROWTH RATE (1990-2021F)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
F
20
20
F
20
21
F
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CHINA ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
25 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
THE LONG-AWAITED BUILDING SAVED BY CHINESE DEVELOPERS
COMPLETION SCHEDULED BY END OF
2019WORKS RESUMED IN 2018 BY CHINESE DEVELOPERS
WAIMAN CONSTRUCTION & ENGINEERING AND
SHENZHEN HONGTAO DECORATION
BEGAN IN 2008 BY
YON WOO CAMBODIA
OVERVIEW
INFRASTRUCTURE
LAND
RETAIL
OFFICE
RESIDENTIAL
TOURISM & HOSPITALITY
27 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
INFRASTRUCTURE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
Photo credit: Construction Property
28 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
INFRASTRUCTURE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CHINA’S ONE BELT ONE ROAD INITIATIVE
29 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
Source: Ministry of Public Works and Transport/ Property Area
PHNOM PENH-SIHANOUKVILLE EXPRESSWAY PLAN CURRENT STAGE OF THE PLAN
• CONSTRUCTION TO START WITHIN Q1 2019
190KMIN LENGTH
4LANES
89BRIDGES
3 REST STATIONS
7 INTERSECTIONS
25MIN WIDTH
• THE MINISTRY IS RESOLVING POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE PEOPLE LIVING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY
• 200 CHINESE CONSTRUCTION EXPERTS PRESENT IN CAMBODIA.
48 MONTHSTO BE COMPLETED
INFRASTRUCTURE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
SIHANOUKVILLE’S INFRASTRUCTURE
30 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
3
THA
ILA
ND
VIETNAM
LAOS
A
C
1
D
F
E B
PHNOM PENH
SIHANOUKVILLE
EXPRESSWAY190KM - COMPLETE IN 48 MONTHS
1
NR. 3 EXPANSIONSTARTED IN APRIL 2018, EXPECTED COMPLETION IN 2021, EXPAND TO 24.5M WIDTH (82KM) & 12M WIDTH (70KM)
2
PHNOM PENH – HO CHI
MINH TOLLWAYCONNECTED VIA BAVET, EXPECTED
COMPLETION IN 20333
2
INFRASTRUCTURE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
UPDATES ON INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FROM 2018
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
31 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
INFRASTRUCTURE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
UPDATES ON INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 2018 - 2019
5
6 7
5. CHOAM CHAOFLYOVER & UNDERPASS
6. NATIONAL RING ROAD 37. ANLONG CHEN BRIDGE
Source: Google Maps, CBRE Research, Q1 2019
32 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
INFRASTRUCTURE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
UPDATES ON INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FROM 2018
CHOAM CHAO FLYOVER & UNDERPASS
• BROKE GROUND IN JUNE 2018• ESTIMATED COMPLETION TIME - 30 MONTHS
RING ROAD 3
• BROKE GROUND JANUARY 14TH 2019• 53KM LONG
5 6
33 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
INFRASTRUCTURE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
UPDATES ON INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FROM 2018
7. ANLONG CHEN BRIDGE• PART OF RING ROAD 3 DEVELOPMENT• EXPECTED COMPLETION 2021
COMPLETED AND OPENED IN 2018
34 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
INFRASTRUCTURE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MAJOR MIXED-USE PROJECTS
3
1
5
Source: Google Maps
2
4
35 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MAJOR MIXED-USED PROJECTS
CHROY CHANGVAR SATELLITE CITY1
• DEVELOPER: OCIC• LOCATION: EAST OF CBD
• OVER 200 HECTARES OF LAND UNDER DEVELOPMENT• DEVELOPMENT FOCUS CURRENTLY ON LOW-RISE
COMMERCIAL ZONE | BUSINESS ZONE | RESIDENTIAL ZONERECREATIONAL PARK | CONVENTION CENTER
Photo: CBRE Cambodia & OCIC
36 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MAJOR MIXED-USED PROJECTS
PHNOM PENH CITY CENTER2
• DEVELOPER: SHUKAKU INC. • SITE AREA: 111.6 HECTARES
RESIDENTIAL ZONE | RETAIL | OFFICEINTERNATIONAL SCHOOL | RECREATIONAL PARK
Photo: Phnom Penh City Center
37 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MAJOR MIXED-USED PROJECTS
YUETAI’S PHNOM PENH HARBOUR
OFFICE TOWERS | RESIDENTIAL TOWERS HOTEL | URBAN PARK | CULTURAL CENTER
3
Photo: Phnom Penh Post & Yuetai Group
GROUND-BREAKING EXPECTED WITHIN Q1 2019
38 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MAJOR MIXED-USED PROJECTS
DIAMOND ISLAND
RESIDENTIAL ZONES | OFFICE | HOTEL | PARK | CONVENTION CENTER
4
Photo: Khmer Times
• MASTER DEVELOPER: OCIC • SITE AREA: MORE THAN 100 HECTARES
39 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MAJOR MIXED-USED PROJECTS
ING CITY5
• DEVELOPER: ING HOLDINGS• LOCATION: SOUTH OF PHNOM PENH
• SITE AREA: 2,572 HECTARES• CURRENTLY ON PHASE 1, COVERING 623 HECTARES
COMMERCIAL ZONE | BUSINESS ZONE | RESIDENTIAL ZONEINTERNATIONAL SCHOOL | RECREATIONAL PARK
Photo: ING Holdings
40 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
GREEN-NET STATISTICS: UPCOMING LESSER-KNOWN PROJECTS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Residential Mixed-Use Scheme Commercial
Source: CBRE Research
OVERVIEW
INFRASTRUCTURE
LAND
RETAIL
OFFICE
RESIDENTIAL
TOURISM & HOSPITALITY
42 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
LAND | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
INFRASTRUCTURE AND LAND PRICES
43 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
LAND | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
INDICATIVE LAND PRICES 2010-2020F
2019F
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
REDUCTION IN GROWTH RATE DUE TO COMMERCIAL SUPPLY TRENDS
CENTRAL DISTRICTS
TOUL KORK DISTRICTVALUE UPLIFT DUE TO SHIFT FROM
RESIDENTIAL TO COMMERICAL LAND USE
LAND VALUE APPRECIATION FOCUSED AROUND IMPROVING INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORK
SUBURBAN DISTRICTS
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Daun Penh Chamkarmon 7Makara
Toul Kork Russey Keo Sen Sok
Chroy Changvar
RUSSEY KEO
SEN SOK
POR SEN CHEY
DANGKAO
MEANCHEY
CHAMKARMON
TOUL KORK
CHROY CHANGVAR
CHBAR AMPOV
*The land prices indicated are representative of sites from 0.3 ha to 3.0 ha in site area
DAUN PENH
2019F
2018
2017
0 2,000 4,000 6,000
2019F
2018
2017
0 1,000 2,000
2019F
2018
2017
0 2,000 4,000
2019F
2018
2017
0 1,000 2,000
2019F
2018
2017
0 2,000 4,000 6,000
7 MAKARA
2019F
2018
2017
0 2,000 4,000 6,000
2019F
2018
2017
0 1,000 2,000
2019F INDICATIVE LAND VALUE (USD/SQM)
45 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
HO CHI MINH BANGKOK PHNOM PENH
CBD Inner City
LAND | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
REGIONAL AVERAGE LAND VALUE COMPARISON
Source: CBRE Research
USD/SQM
46 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Dis
tric
t 1
Daun p
enh
Bin
h T
hanh
Dis
tric
t 3
Dis
tric
t 4
Cham
karm
on
Toul Kork
7 M
akara
Dis
tric
t 2
Dis
tric
t 5
Dis
tric
t 7
Dis
tric
t 8
Russey K
eo
Chro
y C
hangvar
Dis
tric
t 9
Sen S
ok
CBD SUBURBS
Penh
INNER CITY OUTER CITY
PHNOM PENH
HCMC
LAND | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
REGIONAL AVERAGE LAND VALUE COMPARISON
Source: CBRE Research
USD/SQM
47 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
LAND | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
2019 FORECAST
OVERVIEW
INFRASTRUCTURE
LAND
RETAIL
OFFICE
RESIDENTIAL
TOURISM & HOSPITALITY
49 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
RETAIL SUPPLY 2009-2020F
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
375,000
450,000
525,000
600,000
675,0002
00
9
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
F
20
20
F
Shopping Mall Shopping Center Community Mall Retail Podium
2019F
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
ACROSS ALL SUB-SECTORS INFLUX IN SUPPLY
ANTICPATED COMMUNITY MALL STOCK
32,858 SQM
EXPECTED IN RETAIL PODIUM SEGMENTCOMPLETION DELAYS
MANAGEMENT & OPERATION A GROWING ISSUE AS A RESULT OF
CHANGING FORMATS & SCALE
SQM
50 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
RECENT ENTRANTS
SOARING NUMBER OF NEW RETAIL ENTRANTS IN 2018
29 NEW ENTRANTS
65 NEW ENTRANTS
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 8
51 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
AND MANY MORE…
WELCOME TO THE KINGDOM!
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
NEW RETAIL ENTRANTS TO PHNOM PENH IN 2018
52 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
RETAIL VACANCY 2008-2020F
2019F VACANCY
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
ESTIMATED 4% INCREASE IN TOTAL VACANCY
RETAIL PODIUM
ESTIMATED 1.5% INCREASE IN TOTAL VACANCY
COMMUNITY MALL
ESTIMATED 2% INCREASE IN TOTAL VACANCY
SHOPPING MALL
INFLUX OF COMMUNITY MALL SUPPLY EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY
ABSORBED BY Q3/Q4 2019
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
F
20
20
F
53 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CURRENT RETAIL RENTAL RATES
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
RENTAL RATES FORECAST TO FALL DUE TO:
116.6% GROWTH IN RETAIL PODIUM SUPPLY
126.3% GROWTH IN COMMUNITY MALL SUPPLY
26.4% GROWTH IN SHOPPING MALL SUPPLY
$30.6
$27.7 $26.8
$32.0
$-
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
Prime Shopping
Mall
Prime Retail
Podium
Community Mall Prime High Street
Rental Rate Range Average Rental Rate
COMMUNITY MALL RENTS FORECAST TO STABILIZE BEFORE YEAR END DUE TO ANTICIPATED HIGH NET ABSORPTION
54 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
RECENTLY COMPLETED RETAIL SUPPLY IN 2018
THE PARK COMMUNITY MALLOPERATION COMMENCED EARLY 2018 | 85% OCCUPIED BY 2018
55 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
RECENTLY COMPLETED RETAIL SUPPLY IN 2018
AEON MALL SEN SOK CITYOPERATION COMMENCED MID 2018 | FULLY OCCUPIED
56 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019:
MAP OF EXPECTED RETAIL SUPPLY IN 2019
1. The Olympia Mall2. The Park3. The Bridge4. Phnom Penh Megamall5. MiDTOWN Mall6. Noro Mall7. WB Arena8. Chip Mong Baktouk9. The Point
9
57 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
2019: 5 COMMUNITY MALLS ANTICIPATED
THE POINTLAUNCHED IN Q4 2018 | EXPECTED COMPLETION IN 2019
LOCATED ALONG MAO TSE TONG BLVD, NEAR RUSSIAN MARKET
58 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
2019: 5 COMMUNITY MALLS ANTICIPATED
MiDTOWN MALLEXPECTED FULL OPENING IN JULY 2019 | 4,881 SQM OF NLA
59 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
2019: 5 COMMUNITY MALLS ANTICIPATED
NORO MALLEXPECTED OPENING IN Q3 2019 | 7,400 SQM OF NLA
60 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
2019: 5 COMMUNITY MALLS ANTICIPATED
DOWNTOWN 93EXPECTED OPENING IN 2019 | 4,000 SQM OF NLA
61 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
2019: 5 COMMUNITY MALLS ANTICIPATED
WB ARENAEXPECTED OPENING IN 2019 | 6,000 SQM OF NLA
62 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
2019: 2 SHOPPING MALLS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
PHNOM PENH MEGAMALLEXPECTED OPENING: Q1 2020 | 40,000 SQM OF NLA
Photo: ASEAN Skyline Facebook Page
63 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
2019: 2 SHOPPING MALLS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
THE OLYMPIA MALLEXPECTED OPENING IN MARCH 2019 | 15,000 SQM OF NLA (PHASE 1)
64 YEAR AHEAD 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RETAIL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
2019 FORECAST
OVERVIEW
INFRASTRUCTURE
RETAIL
OFFICE
RESIDENTIAL
TOURISM & HOSPITALITY
LAND
66 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
OFFICE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CENTRALLY OWNED OFFICE SUPPLY 2008-2020F
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
F
20
20
F
Grade C Grade B Grade A Occupancy Rate
2019F
OCCUPANCY RATE BY Q4 2019 78.50%
GRADE A OFFICE
53,265 SQMGRADE B OFFICE
150,775 SQMGRADE C OFFICE
190,565 SQM
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
OCCUPANCY RATES FALL DUE TO 56.6% GRADE B STOCK INFLUX
SQM
67 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
OFFICE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
OFFICE RENTAL RATES 2012-2020F
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F
Grade-B (CBD) Grade-B (NCBD) Grade-C (CBD) Grade-C (NCBD)
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
INFLUX IN NON-CBD GRADE B OFFICE COMPLETIONS COMPRESS RENTAL RATES DUE TO PRE-LEASING THROUGHOUT 2019. LITTLE REMAINING CBD GRADE C SUPPLY IN DEMAND.
USD/SQM
68 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
OFFICE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MORE STRATA-TITLE OFFICE IN 2019
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
20
18
20
19
F
20
20
F
20
21
F
Grade B Grade A
ADDITIONAL 87,000 SQM OF SUPPLY IN 2019 TO MARK THE ‘REAL’ START OF A WAVE OF STRATA-TITLE OFFICE SUPPLY
Source: CBRE Research.Q1 2019
SQM
69 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
1
3
6
4
5
7
8
10
12
2
OFFICE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MAP OF EXPECTED OFFICE COMPLETIONS IN 2019
1. Elysee Tower2. Downtown 933. One Park4. TK Central5. Fortune Tower6. C5 Olympia City7. Diamond Twin Tower
8. Soma Group HQ9. Star City10. Chip Mong Baktouk Commercial Center11. The Gateway12. The Commune13. The Point
9
11Strata-titleCentrally Owned
13
70 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
OFFICE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MORE ANTICIPATED STRATA-TITLE OFFICE IN 2019
THE GATEWAYGRADE A STRATA-TITLE OFFICE
28,600 SQM
71 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
OFFICE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MORE ANTICIPATED STRATA-TITLE OFFICE IN 2019
DIAMOND TWIN TOWERSGRADE B STRATA-TITLE OFFICE
16,000 SQM
72 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
OFFICE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MORE ANTICIPATED STRATA-TITLE OFFICE IN 2019
STAR CITYGRADE B STRATA-TITLE OFFICE
20,200 SQM
73 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
OFFICE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MORE ANTICIPATED STRATA-TITLE OFFICE IN 2019
FORTUNE TOWEROF THE OLYMPIA CITYGRADE B STRATA-TITLE OFFICE
22,000 SQM
74 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
OFFICE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
OTHER NEW OFFICE BUILDINGS
5,570 SQM
THE COMMUNEGRADE B CENTRALLY-OWNED OFFICE
75 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
OFFICE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
OTHER NEW OFFICE BUILDINGS
20-STOREY TOWER14,366 SQM
TK CENTRALGRADE B CENTRALLY-OWNED OFFICE
76 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
OFFICE | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
2019 FORECAST
OVERVIEW
INFRASTRUCTURE
LAND
RETAIL
OFFICE
RESIDENTIAL
TOURISM & HOSPITALITY
78 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY IN 2018
ACCUMULATIVE SUPPLY
2018
3,530 UNITSAFFORDABLE SEGMENT MID-RANGE SEGMENT HIGH-END SEGMENT
7,550 UNITS 3,093 UNITS
14,173UNITS
25% 22%
53%Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
79 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY 2019F
2019F2018
UNITS
PROJECT DELAYS RESULT IN INCREASED PIPELINE OF NEW SUPPLY IN 2019
100% INCREASEAFFORDABLE SEGMENT MID-RANGE SEGMENT HIGH-END SEGMENT
78% INCREASE 243% INCREASE
14,173
2019F
31,112120% INCREASE Y-O-Y UNITSUNITS
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
34% 23%
43%
80 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CONDOMINIUM SALE PRICE 2016 – 2020F
$1,250
$1,750
$2,250
$2,750
$3,250
$3,750
Affordable Mid-Range High-End
RISK OF OVER-SATURATION WITHIN MID-RANGE AND HIGH-END CONDOMINIUM SEGMENTS CAUSE DOWNWARD PRICE ADJUSTMENT
2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 F
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
2 0 2 0 F
81 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
KEY CONDOMINIUM PROJECTS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE IN 2019
11
2
3
456
7
8
9
10
11
1. THE GATEWAY2. THE PENTHOUSE RESIDENCE3. ONE PARK4. EMBASSY CENTRAL5. AXIS RESIDENCE6. DIAMOND TWIN TOWER
7. URBAN LOFT8. STAR CITY9. SKY TREE10. GOLDEN ONE11. THE SKYLINE
and more…
82 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
EXPECTED COMPLETION OF KEY PROJECTS
THE SKYLINE792 UNITS | MID-RANGE | EXPECTED MOVE-IN READY: Q1 2019
83 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
EXPECTED COMPLETION OF KEY PROJECTS
THE PENTHOUSE RESIDENCE458 UNITS | HIGH-END | EXPECTED MOVE-IN READY: Q3 2019
84 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
EXPECTED COMPLETION OF KEY PROJECTS
ONE PARK1,636 UNITS | HIGH-END | 400 UNITS EXPECTED TO BE MOVE-IN READY BY 2019
85 YEAR AHEAD 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CONDOMINIUM 2019 FORECAST
86 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
SERVICED APARTMENT SUPPLY 2019-2020 FORECAST
GRADE A
1,135 UNITS
CURRENT SUPPLY
GRADE B
908 UNITS
GRADE A
1,790 UNITS
+
6
5
5
UNITS
GRADE B
946 UNITS
+
38
UNITS
SUPPLY BY 2020F CURRENT SUPPLY SUPPLY BY 2020F
87 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
EXPECTED COMPLETION OF KEY PROJECTS
ALPHA RESIDENCES NORODOM 38 UNITS | GRADE B | EXPECTED TO BE MOVE-IN READY IN APRIL 2019
88 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIASource: somerset.com & khmertimeskh.com
30 COUNTRIES111 CITIES
WORLDWIDE
SOMERSET NORODOM -COMPLETED
& SOMERSET MERIDIAN SQUARE - PENDING
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
INTERNATIONAL OPERATORS ON THE RISE
89 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
950+ PROPERTIES ACROSS THE REGION 162 APARTMENTS IN AUSTRALIA
6 CITIES IN CHINA
OAKWOOD PREMIER PHNOM PENHOAKWOOD HOTEL & RESIDENCE PHNOM PENH
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
INTERNATIONAL OPERATORS ON THE RISE
OAKWOOD PREMIER and
OAKWOOD HOTEL & RESIDENCE PHNOM PENH
WILL BE LOCATED IN ONE PARK
90 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
OVERSUPPLY OF CONDOMINIUM IN THE NEAR FUTURE
CONVERSION OF UNSOLD UNITS
SERVICED APARTMENT SUPPLY INCREASE
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
UNSOLD CONDOS TO BE CONVERTED INTO SERVICED APARTMENTS
OVERSUPPLY OF CONDOMINIUMS IN THE NEAR FUTURE
91 FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
RESIDENTIAL | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
SERVICED APARTMENT 2019 FORECAST
OVERVIEW
INFRASTRUCTURE
LAND
RETAIL
OFFICE
RESIDENTIAL
TOURISM & HOSPITALITY
93 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
Source: Ministry of Tourism
NUMBER OF TOURIST ARRIVALS BY ORIGIN
China
Vietnam
Lao PDR
Thailand
Korea (ROK)
U.S.A
Japan
Malaysia
U.K
France
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000
2017 2016
HOSPITALITY | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
TOURIST STATISTICS
94 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
Q3 2017 Q3 2018
Total Chinese Tourists
72% INCREASE
CHINESE TOURIST VISITS TO SIHANOUKVILLE
Source: South China Morning Post
DECLINING RATE OF WESTERN TOURISTS
HOSPITALITY | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
SIHANOUKVILLE’S CHINESE TOURISTS
96 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
Source: Ministry of Tourism
NUMBER OF TOURIST ARRIVALS BY YEAR
HOSPITALITY | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
TOURIST STATISTICS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
Y-o-Y %
Change
Num
ber
of
Tourists
No. of International Tourist Arrivals % Change
Source: Ministry of Tourism
97 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
IS THE INFLUX OF TOURISTS A POTENTIAL PROBLEM?
HOSPITALITY | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
TOURIST STATISTICS
Photo: Heng Chivoan/Phnom Penh Post
98 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
HOSPITALITY | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CONNECTIVITY CONTINUES TO BOOST VISITOR NUMBERS
MORE FLIGHT CONNECTIONS,MORE TOURISTS,AND OF COURSE MORE HOTELS
102 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
HOSPITALITY | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
BRANDED HOTELS CONTINUE TO RAISE THE BAR
HYATT REGENCYEXPECTED COMPLETION 2020 | 250 KEYS
Photo: Chip Mong
103 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
HOSPITALITY | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
BRANDED HOTELS CONTINUE TO RAISE THE BAR
SHANGRI-LA HOTELEXPECTED COMPLETION 2020 | 148 KEYS
Photo: Oxley Worldbridge
104 CAMBODIA | FEARLESS FORECAST 2019CBRE CAMBODIA
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
CAMBODIA PREPARES TO HOST 2023 SEA GAMES
Photo credit: John Dough
THE MORODOK DECHO NATIONAL SPORT COMPLEX
Photo: Phnom Penh Post
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
SKY TRAIN PLANS TO REVOLUTIONIZE PUBLIC TRANSPORT
Photo: Phnom Penh Post
FEARLESS FORECAST 2019
MARC’S PREDICTIONS FOR 2019
Photo: Phnom Penh Post
1. CBD LAND VALUES WILL DOUBLE AGAIN IN THE NEXT 24 MONTHS
2. LOCAL TECH START-UPS WILL TAKE MORE SPACE THAN FORTUNE 500 COMPANIES
3. ANGKOR WAT ARCHEALOGICAL PARK WILL CLOSE FOR 6 MONTHS
James Hodge
Associate Director
M: +855 89 333 722
© 2019 Advantage Property Services Co., Ltd, trading as CBRE Cambodia, part of the CBRE affiliate network. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyrightand proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt itsaccuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of theinformation of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offerto sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmittedto, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable forany loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.
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