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Fashion

Distribution &Logistics

Lecture 1

Course Outline

The FashionForecasting

Process

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Fashion Forecasting Fashion used to come from one source at a time, be it the

streets, the runways or the entertainment business. The

interesting thing about today is that influences come from

high and loweverything from couture to Target.

Michael Kors.

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Trend ChasersWho, What, Where, When,

Why and How

Trend chasers

o Locate the spawning ground(s) of trends.

o Use their skill and knowledge to identify emerging

concepts.

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Why and How

o Transmit findings to forecasters, product developers,marketers and the press (setting off chain reaction

known as fashion)

o Resulting in continuous flow of innovation (decoration,

styling, products).

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Why and How

Trend chaserswork in many

different fields:

Designers Advertising

agencies

Fiber producers

Trade

organizations

Retail chains

Apparel brands

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Trend ChasersWho, What, Where,

When, Why and How

Job titles range

from

Director of design

inspiration

Manager of trend

merchandising

Fashion director(Backgrounds are

just as varied)

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Why and How Job Requirements

Frequent travel -Quarterly trips to Fashion Capitals

(Milan, London, Paris); Emerging fashion cultures (flea

markets); Fashion shows, trade shows etc

Colour research scans done internationally.

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Why and How

Forecasters also work in trend agencies that consultwith companies in: Apparel

Cosmetics

Interiors

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Why and How Each agency develops a distinctive approach

Nelly Rodi

Based in Paris

Employs 25 consultants and 11 agents

Calls on sociologists and psychologists to define trend

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Why and How Each agency develops a distinctive approach

Peclers Paris -

Employs 65 ppl and 25 agents worldwide

Depends on intuitive insights from its creative

team

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Why and How Agencies publish

trend books to

illustrate their

forecasts approx. 18

months ahead of thefashion season.

Books include

Colour chips

Textile samples

Fashion sketches

Photographs to

illustrate trends

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Why and How

Trend chasers enable companies to execute a strategybased on timing.

Called strategic windowsthis strategy involves timing

the firms product offerings to the customers readiness

and willingness to accept and adopt those products.

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Forecasting Defined Gardner (1995)

compares fashionforecasting to

chasing the future

with a butterfly net.

However! It is notdifficult for those

who immerse

themselves in

Popular culture & Trade news.

Forecasters pluck

signals that others

miss.

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Forecasting

Defined

Forecasters vary in

the methods they

use, but all are

looking for anapparatus helps

them to predict:

Mood

Behavior

Buying habits of

consumers

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Forecasting Defined Because trends

signal theemergingneeds, wantsand aspirations

of theconsumer,cannymanufacturers

and retailerscapitalize ontheir potentialfor turning aprofit.

i

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Forecasting

Defined

Forecasting

Is a creative

process that can be

understood practiced and

applied (by

anyone who hasbeen introduced

to the tools)

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Forecasting DefinedForecasting

It provides a way for executives to expand their thinkingabout change, anticipate the future, and project the

likely outcome.

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Forecasting Defined

Forecasting

Executives use

forecasting as input for

planning. Marketing managers

position products in the

marketplace using both:

Short term forecasts

Long term forecasts

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Forecasting Defined

Forecasting Planners of

competitive

strategies use

forecastingtechniques to

look at the market

share and the

position of

competitors in the

marketplace.

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Forecasting DefinedForecasting

Product

developers,

merchandisers

and production

managers use

the short term

trend forecasts

of colour, textilesand style

direction to

shape

collections.

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Forecasting

Defined

Visualization &

Forecasting

In the narrowest

sense, forecasting

attempts to project

past trends into thefuture.

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Forecasting DefinedVisualization & Forecasting

A trendis a transitory increase or decrease Some trends have lasted for millenia e.g. human population

growth

All trends have the potential to eventually slow down and

decline.

F ti

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Forecasting

Defined

Visualization &Forecasting

The mechanisms offashion change workin the background to

create patternsfamiliar to the mostexperienced fashionwatchers.

Visualization helps

forecastersunderstand andcommunicate themovement of fashionand project future

directions.

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Forecasting Defined

Visualization &Forecasting

Three of the

most familiar

patterns are:1. Fashion

Curves

2. The

PendulumSwing

3. The Fashion

Cycle

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Forecasting DefinedVisualization & Forecasting - Fashion Curves

Fashion trends are usually classified by the duration andpenetration, within the context of time and consumer

adoption.

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Forecasting DefinedVisualization & Forecasting - Fashion Curves

In this way it is easy to show differences between theshortest trends (fads), and the longest (classics).

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Pendulum Swing

Refers to the periodicmovement of fashionbetween extremes

Examples

Fluctuations between longand short hemlines

Fitted and oversizedsilhouettes

Dressed up and casual looks

(Swing from power dressing ofthe late 1980s to the relaxeddresscode of the earlynoughties)

These swings may takedecades or a fashion season.

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Forecasting DefinedVisualization & Forecasting Fashion Cycles

Usually cycles have a fixed, regular periodicity. Howevervariations in length and depth of cycles make the term

a misnomer.

No fixed, regularly recurring cycles have been identified

and used to accurately predict the next cycle in businessor fashion.

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Fashion Cycles

Instead, it is more accurate tocall recurring patterns a long-wave phenomena

Long Wave refers to anyentity (e.g. prices or styles)with movement that rises andfalls with differences in

duration and magnitude,

velocity, and

momentum acrossperiods.

This wave model is reflectiveof movement in social

spheres, including fashion.

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Class Discussion

Point

What are examples of:

fads,

classics, and

styles that are

recycled from

former eras

signs of pendulum

swings in the current

fashion season.

f d

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Forecasting DefinedSteps in Developing a

Forecast

Forecasting consists oftools and techniquesapplied systematically

Steps in developing a

forecast arei. Step 1: Identifying the

basic facts about pasttrends and forecasts.

ii. Step 2: Determine the

causes of change in thepast

iii. Step 3: Determine thedifferences betweenpast forecasts and

actual behaviour

i fi d

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Forecasting DefinedSteps in Developing a

Forecast

Steps in developing aforecast are

i. Step 4: Determine thefactors likely to affecttrends in the future

ii. Step 5: Apply forecastingtools and techniques,paying attention to issuesof accuracy and reliability

iii. Step 6: Follow theforecast continually todetermine reasons forsignificant deviationsfrom expectations

iv. Step 7 : Revise theforecast when necessary

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Forecasting Defined

Steps in Developing a

Forecast

A trend forecast

should identify: The source

Underlying pattern

Direction

Tempo of the trend

F i D fi d

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Forecasting DefinedSteps in Developing a Forecast

The most valuable currencies in todays competitiveclimate are information and learning.

Information is easy to find but difficult to sift, frame, and

integrate so that learning can take place.

F i D fi d

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Forecasting DefinedSteps in Developing a Forecast

Forecasting is the process that translates informationinto a form that allows learning to take place.

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Forecasting Specialities

Forecasting is more than

just attending runway

shows and picking out

potential trends that can

be knocked off at lowerprices.

It is a process that spans

shifts in colour andstyles, changes in

lifestyles and buying

patterns and different

ways of doing business.

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Forecasting Specialties

There is a process of

negotiation between

the fashion industry and

the consumer andbetween the various

segments in the supply-

side chain.

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Forecasting

Specialties

Beware of tunnel vision:

which reduces the

flexibility that is so

essential for decision

making under

conditions of high

velocity change.

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Forecasting

Specialties

All apparel executives

share the same problem:

how to make the right

product,

introduce it at the right

time,

distribute it at the right

channels,

and capture the attention

of the right consumers.

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Forecasting

Specialties

When specialist talk

to each other or talk

to others in

technical jargon,

then the chance to

collaborate on

solutions issquandered.

F ti S i lti

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Forecasting Specialties Long term forecasting (5 years or more)

Provides a way to explore possible futures and to build a

shared vision of an organizations direction and development.

A compelling vision draws people toward a preferred future.

i

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Forecasting

Specialties

Short term

forecasting (more

than one year ahead) Involves periodic

monitoring of the

long term vision

and revisions as

circumstances

dictate.

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Forecasting

Specialties

Forecasting keeps the

momentum going

because it forces a

perspective of thefuture on the day to day

business decisions.

Decisions are supported

by past experiencefashion history, sales

history and traditional

ways of doing business.

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Forecasting Specialties

Fashion

Analysis

Trend

Analysis

Competitive

Analysis

Fashion Scan

Consumer Scan

Cultural Indicators

Partners &

Competitors

Combined

Forecast

Future Probes Forecasts

Present Future

Fashion Forecasting requires

a balanced view that seeks

out the newest styles

breaking on the cultural edge

(Fashion Scan) and the reality

of changing demographics,

identifies the fad and the longwave of change.

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Forecasting

Specialities

Fashion Scan

Fashion professionals

follow latest fashionnews in order to spot

Emergingfashion

trends

Emerging lifestyle

trends

Forecasting

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Forecasting

Specialities Fashion Scan

Specialists (whether

forecasters or apparel

executives) focus on:

Colour

Textiles

Style forecasting

Each of which workson its own schedule,

internal logicand

insider expertise.


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Forecasting Specialities Fashion Scan

Environment trend scansinclude:

Travelling to fashioncapitals and to othertrendsetting spots to

observe first hand

Scanning print, broadcastand online sources forclues

Networking with peoplein creative fields such asarts, architecture, interiordesign, cosmetics andentertainment.


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Forecasting Specialities Consumer Scan

Consumer segmentation Identify clusters of people who share characteristics also

exhibit similar consumption behaviours.

Cluster usually share some combination of demographics,

lifestyles, attitudes and behaviour.


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Consumer research

Various data gathering methods (focus groups, surveys,

observation etc.) used to uncover/ explore consumer

preferences and behaviour.

F ti S i liti

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By linking sub-segments with

price points

brands,

Shopping behaviour

Style preferences

Executives can

determine which

consumers are likelyto respond to the

companys offerings

i.e. the Target

Market


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Consumer Scan

Consumer research iscrucial to fashion

forecasting.

While POS data tells what

sold, when and at whatprice; it cannot explain for

example:

Why purchase was made

Why consumers needs,

wants and desires went

unmet by the available

assortment

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Consumer Scan

Insights provided by

research aids in the

development of

short-term forecasts

that guide

Product

development

Merchandising

Marketing

Promotion

F ti S i liti

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Forecasting Specialities Fashion Analysis

Fashion and Consumer Scans provide input for FashionAnalysis the process of putting together the puzzle of

what is likely to happen next.

Fashion is really a dialogue between the creative

industries (fashion, interior design, art, entertainment)who propose innovations and the consumers, who

decide what to adopt or reject.


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Forecasting Specialities Social and Economic Trends

The shift to a casual lifestyleand a consumer resistant tofollowing trends aremanifestations of deep culturalchanges in society.

Fashion forecasting requires awide scan to encompass theimpact of the following issueson consumer preferences and

spending Cultural

Economic

Technological

Political

Forecasting

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Forecasting

Specialities Social and Economic

Trends

Some forecasters/ firmsfocus especially on large-scale shifts in cultural

indicators (akaMegatrends)

Megatrends crossindustry lines because

they: involve shifts in lifestyles,

Reflect changes ingenerational cohorts

Mirror cycles in theeconomy

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Trend Analysis Using fashion and

consumer scans, alongwith the identification ofsocial and economictrends,

Trend Analysis detectsshort and long-term trendsthat affect business

prospects.

Trend analysis looks at theinteraction of shifts infashion, consumer

lifestyles and culture.


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Forecasting Specialities Trend Analysis

Trends start as experimentation, self-expression andreactions to changing circumstances.

Many vanish almost as soon as they are created but

some gain adherents and build momentum.


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Forecasting Specialities Trend Analysis

When they are recognized by the gatekeepers offashion (designers, journalists, merchants, forecasters)

the trends start to appear in media coverage.

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Forecasting Specialities Competitive Analysis

To be competitive in such abusiness environment,companies must observe theplans and capabilities ofcompeting firms through theregular tracking of keyinformation.

This allows a company tobenchmark its activities anddevelop what if scenariosbased on current informationabout competitor initiatives.


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Forecasting Specialities Competitive Analysis

Information very useful for new businesses especially in

the start up stage and helps established businesses

scout new markets


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Competitive

Analysis

It has to be a

continuous, longterm project using

research and

analysis strategies

similar to those

used in other types

of forecasting.

Discovering

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gthe Zeitgeist

Fashion historianscontend that

fashion is a

reflection of the

times in which it iscreated and worn.

Fashion responds

to whatever is

modern that is,

to the spirit of the

times or the

Zeitgeist.

Discovering the Zeitgeist

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Discovering the Zeitgeist According to Blumer (1969) individuals in large

numbers choose among competing styles, thosethat click or connect with the spirit of the times.


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Discovering the Zeitgeist This collective selection forms a feedback loop

between the fashion industry and the consumer, a

feedback loop moderated by aesthetic trends and

socio-psychological processes.

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The problem with this

concept in terms of

forecasting is that it offers

little advance warning ofpotential fashionability in

proposed looks.

The industry must waituntil fashion demand

converges on something

symbolic of the times.

Di i th Z it i t

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All culturalcomponentsrespond to thespirit of thetimes.

The power of theZeitgeist is its

ability tocoordinate acrossproductcategories.


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E.G. - Fashion andcuisine exhibit thesame trends andcycles.

Once allfashionablesandwiches wereserved on pitabread, followed by

croissants, thenmulti grainpeasant-stylebread, then wraps.


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Discovering the Zeitgeist Fashion affects all product categories food, sports,

architecture, interiors and automobiles

Sports like bicycle racing and snowboarding were once the

hobby of a small market segment. Today they are covered

on TV sports channels and the functional clothing of

participants has been adopted to mass fashion.


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g g Media not only report on the culture, they are shaped

by it.

Watching network tv for example was all importantuntil the coming of cable, startup networks, the Web,video games, and computer games pushed thenetworks off the cultural front burner.


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Magazines that report onfashion are like any otherproduct; they have naturallife cycles connected to thespirit of the times. They reinvent or refresh

their look and their focus inresponse to the spirit of thetimes (usually by changingeditors.

New editors replace old

ones because they have avision, one that is in touchwith the times and they canshape the magazine toreflect that.

Discovering the Zeitgeist Defining Fashion

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In simplest terms, fashion is a style that is popular

in the present or a set of trends that have beenaccepted by a wide audience.

Discovering the

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Discovering the

ZeitgeistDefining

Fashion

Fashion as a Social and

Psychological Response

Defining fashion means

dealing with dualities

because clothing

simultaneously revealsand conceals the body

and the self.

Discovering the

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ZeitgeistDefining

Fashion



Clothing choices expresspersonal style and

individuality but also

serve to manipulate the

public image to fitsituations and

expectations of others.


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Discovering the Zeitgeist Defining Fashion Fashion as a Social and Psychological Response

The engine of fashion is sparked by the dual goals of: Imitation and differentiation

Fitting in and standing out

Following the leader and being distinctive


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Human ambivalence

conflicting and

contradictoryyearnings finds an

outlet in a capitalist

marketplace asappearance-

modifying goods.

Discovering the ZeitgeistDefining Fashion

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g g f g Fashion as a Social and Psychological Response

Duality exists even in the buying of fashion because the

process is both cognitively challenging (as when ppl

evaluate price and value) and emotionally arousing (as

when ppl react positively or negatively to the symbolic

meaning in the products)


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Fashion as Popular

Culture

Defining fashion means

operating within the

domain of popular culture.

Unlike high culture (fine

art, classical music, great

literature), popular culture

often seems trivial and

transient.


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Fashion as Popular

Culture Popular culture

invites skepticism

because it

sometimes seems

extreme and

frivalous. For the

same reasons it isdifficult to take

fashion seriously.


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sco e g t e e tge st ef g as o

Fashion as Popular

Culture The study of popular

culture the content

and people relationship

to that content has

attracted the attention

of scientists and

scholars(anthropologists,

psychologists and

sociologists).


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Fashion as Change

Defining fashion as

change captures the

charm of novelty, theresponsiveness to the

spirit of the times, and

the pull of historic

continuity.


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g g f g

Fashion as Change

It is present in the design of

automobiles and

architecture,

the shifting popularity

of cuisine,

the development of

technology and

the buzz words of

business management

strategies.


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Fashion as Change

Every few years a new management strategy is touted asa breakthrough, only to be replaced by another one a

few years later.

Understanding fashion helps explain how these

transformations happen.

Discovering the Zeitgeist Defining

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Fashion

Fashion as UniversalPhenomenon

The excitement of fashion canapply to any area of life.

In the 1630s the tulip, an exoticimport from central Asia,became the focus of desire.Wild speculation among the

normally sober Dutch peopledrove the price up until a singlerare bulb cost as much as ahouse.


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Discovering the Zeitgeist efining

Fashion

Fashion as a Transfer ofMeaning

Meaning exists in thecultural environment.

Designers, marketers andthe press transfer themeaning to a consumergood and increase itsvisibility.

The consumer fetches themeaning out of themarketplace in the forms ofgood and constructs his/her own personal world.

Discovering the ZeitgeistDefininghi

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Fashion

Fashion as a Transfer

of Meaning

Not all goods catch the

attention of or find favor

with consumers.

Some meaning

meanings are rejectedinitially and are taken up

later.


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Discovering the Zeitgeist Defining Fashion Fashion as a Transfer of Meaning

Some meanings are recycled over and over. Obsolescence is designed into the process.

Fashion in its many guises plays a constant role in the

evolving cultural environment.


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Fashion as an Economic Stimulus

Planned obsolescence powers the economic engine of fashion. Wearing clothes until they wear out or wearing the second hand

clothes of more fickle buyers are acceptable strategies for

dressing.


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g g f g

Fashion as an Economic

Stimulus

Creating fashion goods

requires the ability to

mix aesthetic concerns

and market mindfulness

For instance, mass

produced fashion is

the product of

negotiation withinand between the

sub-worlds that make

up the fashion

industry


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Fashion and Gender

Differences

Men traditionally rejected

the social distinctiveness of

dress in favour of

occupational clothing withsimilarity in cut, proportion

and design.

Women in a relative weaker

social position than men,used fashion as a field where

they could vent their

individual prominence and

personal conspicuousness


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g g f g

Fashion and GenderDifferences

By the 1930s, fashion

commentators were

seeing a change thebreakdown of social

hierarchies- and the

ever increasing

socialization of

women.


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g g f g

Fashion and Gender

Differences Perhaps the years of the

new millennium will see thereconciliation between the

sexes on the question offashion with men havingmore access to colour,ornament, and self

expression and womenhaving less reliance onextraneous accessories,painful footwear andconstricting styles.

Nystroms Framework for Observing theZ it i t

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Zeitgeist What factors should the forecaster monitor?

What external factors shape the spirit of the times?

Nystrom (1928) attempted to list factors that guide and

influence the character and direction of fashion.


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Zeitgeist

Dominating Events

Nystrom listed 3 kinds of dominating events

i. Significant occurrences war, death of world leaders, world

fairs.

ii. Art vogues Russian ballet, modern art (ofNystroms day)iii. Accidental events discovery ofTutankhamuns tomb in the

1920s.


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Zeitgeist

Dominating Events

International events still pull in hugeaudiences, one such even is the academyawards ceremony, with its celebrityfashion parade.

Olympic games active wear for athletes

and casual wear for the mainstreamconsumer.

An updated list of significantoccurances include: End of Cold War (1990s)

Web culture 9/11

The millenium

US military action in middle east

Economic downturn in the US

Nystroms Framework for Observing theZeitgeist

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Zeitgeist

Dominating Ideals

Ideals such as

patriotism and the

greek ideal ofclassical beauty


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Zeitgeist Dominating Ideals

An updated list wouldinclude Ideals of

multiculturalism

Environmental and

humanitarian issues Equality of men and

women

Connection betweenfitness, beauty, andyouthfulness

E.g. growingmulticulturalism in theUS - increase inHispanics and Asians


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Zeitgeist Dominating Social

Groups

Nystrom identified the

dominating social

groups as those with wealth,

power, and

leadership positions.

Groups themselves

would have changed,

the criteria still applied

to todays culture.

Nystroms Frameworkfor Observing the

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for Observing the

Zeitgeist Dominating Social

Groups

The power of celebrities inpopularizing fashion trends

can hardly be overemphasized.

E.g.

Cindy Lauper (80s)

whimsical, colourful, vintagestyle

Madonna (80s/90s)lingerie as outerwear

Courtney Love (90s) hard-

edge glam


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Zeitgeist

Dominating SocialGroups

Stars in music more

influential on younger

consumers while

actors have more

influence on older

consumers.

Celebs Highly visual

and highly influential

Nystroms Framework for Observing

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the Zeitgeist

Dominating Attitude

The engine of fashion

the interplay

between anindividuals desire to

fit in and to stand

out, between

imitation anddifferentiation

imprints the Zeitgeist.

Nystroms Frameworkfor Observing the

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for Observing the

Zeitgeist Dominating Attitude

When the desire for

differentiation is the dominant

attitude in an era, new fashion

arise, the changes are

revolutionary and the pace of

fashion change is swift.

The flapper era (1920s) and

Youthquake (1960s) are

examples of an era when the

dominant attitude was

differentiation.


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Zeitgeist Dominating Attitude

When social conformity and imitation is the dominant

attitude, fashion innovation slows down.

The depressed 1930s, conforming 1950s, and

dominance of casual styles beginning in the 1990s aresuch eras.


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Zeitgeist Dominating Technology

Nystroms list must be

expanded to include the

dominating technology

of the times. Today, technology is

deeply intertwined in

everyday life, especially

in the realms ofcommunication,

entertainment and

computers.


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Cell phones, portable music systems, and hand held

computers such as personal digital assistants (PDA) may

eventually give away to wearable computers a

development already being studied at MIT media lab.


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Wearable technology sometimes called cyber-style or

cyberpunk may become the essential fashion

accessory in the new millennium.


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Technology imprints not only the Zeitgeist but also the productionmethods.

Without computers and rapid worldwide communications, quick

response strategies and global apparel production would not be

possible.


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Zeitgeist Conclusion

Together, the dominating events, ideals, social groups, attitudes,and technology amplify and influence the spirit of the times.

Together they illuminate the structure of society with fashion

illustrating variations on the cultural themes.

Documents

FDL - L1