Upload
adele-neal
View
216
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
What promotes China’s trade surplus?
FDI and processing and assembling trade
FDI’s contribution to China’s exports
YearShare of foreign-
investment enterprises (%)Share of domestic
enterprises (%)2005 62.6 37.4
2006 57.8 42.2
2007 52.9 47.1
2008 45.2 54.8
2009 52.2 47.8
2010 50.5 49.5
2011 41.5 58.5
Table: The share of foreign-investment and domestic enterprises in China’s export growth( 2005-2011)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
export
import
export
import
export
import
export
import
export
import
export
import
Total 969.08
791.61
1218.02
955.82
1428.55
1133.09
1201.66
1005.56
1577.93
1394.83
1898.60
1743.47
State-owned
enterprise
191.35
225.24
224.81
269.72
257.23
353.81
190.99
288.47
234.36
387.56
267.22
493.40
Foreign-owned
enterprise
563.84
472.62
695.52
559.41
790.62
619.96
672.23
545.21
862.31
738.00
995.33
864.83
Others 213.90
93.76
297.68
126.69
380.70
159.32
338.44
171.88
481.27
269.28
636.05
385.23
Table: Exports and imports of State-owned enterprises and foreign-owned enterprises in China(2006-2011, billion U.S. dollars)
Processing and assembling trade and China’s exports
Year
Processing and assembling
trade (billion U.S. dollars)
Proportion in China’s
foreign trade (%)
Year
Processing and assembling
trade (billion U.S. dollars)
Proportion in China’s
foreign trade (%)
1986 5.62 18.16
1999 110.88 56.88
1987 8.99 22.80
2000 137.65 55.24
1988 14.06 29.59
2001 147.43 55.41
1989 19.79 37.66
2002 179.93 55.26
1990 25.42 40.94
2003 241.85 55.19
1991 32.43 45.10
2004 327.97 55.28
1992 39.62 46.64
2005 416.47 54.66
1993 44.25 48.23
2006 510.36 52.67
1994 56.98 47.09
2007 617.56 50.71
1995 73.70 49.54
2008 675.11 47.19
1996 84.33 55.83
2009 587.00 48.85
1997 99.60 54.49
2010 740.30 46.92
1998 104.45 56.86
2011 835.40 44.00
Table: China’s processing and assembling trade and its proportion in China’s foreign trade (1986-2011)
In the first three quarters of 2012, private enterprises recorded a sound momentum of growth in imports and exports, growth in general trade continued to outpace that in processing trade
ItemExports Imports
ValueChange( %) Value
Change( %)
Total 14953.9 7.4 13470.8 4.8
By form
Ordinary trade 7297.8 8.3 7691.9 3.6
Processing trade 6309.4 3.0 3520.0 1.0
Others 1346.7 27.8 2258.9 16.1
By ownership
SOEs 1927.5 -3.9 3722.8 0.9FIEs 7511.2 3.1 6483.4 1.3Others 5515.2 19.2 3264.6 18.0
Table: China’s imports and exports by form and by ownership, 2012.1-9(US$100m)
China’s comparative advantage and competitive advantage are strong
Labor advantage
2006 2007 2008
Local currency
U.S. dollarLocal
currency U.S. dollarLocal
currency
U.S. dollar
China a
1497.2191.7 1740.3 238.4 2016.0
295.2
Japan299600
2518.7 296800 2603.5 2934003233.1
Korea, Rep. b
25948002790.7 2772000 2961.2 2757800
2189.6
Singapore3618.0
2364.7 3764.0 2613.9 3955.02746.5
Table: The average monthly wage of manufacturing employees
Scale advantage, technology advantage and industry advantage
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201
1
Primaryproduct
s
Export
26.34
28.54
34.81
40.55
49.04
52.92
61.51
79.96
63.11
81.69
400.55
Import
45.74
49.27
72.76
117.27
147.71
187.13
243.09
362.39
289.80
433.85
604.38
Manufacturedgoods
Export
239.76
297.06
403.42
552.78
712.92
916.02
1156.27
1352.74
1138.48
1496.07
1798.05
Import
197.81
245.90
340.00
443.96
512.24
604.33
712.86
770.17
716.12
962.39
1139.08
Table: Classification of China’s imports and exports in goods, 2001-2011
(billion U.S. dollars)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Export (billion U.S.
dollars)
46.5 67.9 110.3
165.5
218.2
281.5
347.8
415.6
376.9
492.4
548.8
Growth rate (%)
25.5 46.02
62.44
50.05
31.84
29.01
23.55
19.49
-9.3 30.7 11.5
The proportion
in total exports (%)
17.5 20.8 25.2 27.9 28.6 29.1 28.6 29.1 31.4 31.2 29.0
Import (billion U.S.
dollars)
64.1 82.8 119.3
161.4
197.7
247.3
287.0
341.9
309.8
412.7
462.9
Growth rate (%)
22.1 29.2 44.08
35.29
22.49
25.09
16.05
19.13
-9.4 33.2 12.2
The proportion
in total imports (%)
26.3 28.1 28.9 28.8 30 31.2 30 30.2 30.8 29.6 26.6
Net export (billion U.S.
dollars)
-17.6
-14.9
-9.0 4.1 20.5 34.2 60.8 73.7 67.1 79.7 85.9
Table: China’s foreign trade of high-tech products (2002-2011)
Small proportion of China’s services trade deficit
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Transportation
-0.54
-0.49
-0.53
-0.48
-0.42
-0.41
-0.40
-0.34
-0.30
-0.24
-0.16
-0.13
-0.33
-0.30
-0.39
Travel 0.20
0.16
0.13
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.07
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.11
0.06
-0.05
-0.09
-0.20
Communication
services
-0.03
0.60
0.51
0.70
-0.09
0.08
0.20
-0.03
-0.09
-0.07
0.04
0.03
0.00
0.04
0.17
Construction
services
-0.34
-0.31
-0.22
-0.25
-0.01
0.13
0.04
0.05
0.24
0.17
0.30
0.40
0.23
0.48
0.60
Insurance services
-0.71
-0.64
-0.81
-0.92
-0.85
-0.88
-0.87
-0.88
-0.87
-0.89
-0.84
-0.80
-0.75
-0.81
-0.74
Financial services
-0.84
-0.72
-0.20
-0.11
0.12
-0.28
-0.21
-0.19
-0.33
-0.80
-0.50
-0.33
-0.27
-0.04
0.07
Computer &
information
services
-0.47
-0.43
0.09
0.15
0.14
-0.28
0.03
0.13
0.06
0.28
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.51
0.53
Table: TC index of China’s services trade (1997-2011)
Royalties & license
fees
-0.82
-0.74
-0.83
-0.88
-0.89
-0.92
-0.94
-0.90
-0.93
-0.94
-0.93
-0.89
-0.93
-0.88
-0.91
Consulting
-0.15
-0.19
-0.30
-0.29
-0.26
-0.34
-0.29
-0.20
-0.08
-0.04
0.03
0.15
0.16
0.20
0.21
Advertising,
media
-0.01
-0.11
0.00
0.05
0.04
-0.03
0.03
0.10
0.22
0.17
0.19
0.07
0.07
0.18
0.18
Film, audiovis
ual
-0.63
-0.44
-0.67
-0.54
-0.29
-0.53
-0.35
-0.62
-0.33
0.00
0.20
0.14
-0.50
-0.60
-0.60
Other business services
0.19
0.07
0.02
0.07
0.12
0.28
0.40
0.31
0.29
0.27
0.19
0.06
0.14
0.35
0.28
Government
services
-0.58
-0.85
-0.76
0.24
0.30
-0.10
-0.12
-0.17
-0.09
0.09
-0.20
-0.13
0.06
-0.05
-0.16
11
ijijij
ijijij TC
MX
MXTC
RMB’s exchange rate is not the key for China’s trade surplus
The pressure of appreciating RMB
RMB’s appreciation can not solve the problem of trade imbalance
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
U.S. exports (billion U.S.
dollars)
19.2
22.1
28.4
34.7
41.8
55.2
65.2
71.5
69.6
91.9
% change18.3
15.1
28.5
22.2
20.6
32.1
18.1 9.5 -2.6
32.1
U.S. imports (billion U.S.
dollars)
102.3
125.2
152.4
196.7
243.5
287.8
321.5
337.8
296.4
364.9
% change 2.2 22.4
21.7
29.1
23.8
18.2
11.7
5.1-
12.3
23.1
Total (billion U.S. dollars)
121.5
147.3
180.8
231.4
285.3 343
386.7
409.2
366.0
456.8
% change21.4
21.2
22.8
28 23.3
20.2
12.7
5.8-
10.6
24.8
U.S. balance (billion U.S.
dollars)
-83.0
-103.1
-124.0
-162.0
-201.6
-232.5
-256.3
-266.3
-226.8
-273.1
Table: Trade between China and the U.S. (2001-2010)