25
FB external report for w11, 2017 Contents of the report Subject Page Comments 1 Market analysis 2 Socio-economical welfare 3-5 Congestion rent 6 Non-intuitive flow 7 Net positions 8-9 Prices 10-13 System Price 14 Power system impact analysis 15-16 Cross-border flows and capacities 17-25 Comments Highlights Known errors Missing hours Some hours are missing in the weekly simulations. This can be due to different issues: -The input data for this hour was not available. -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During the week 11, the flow-based method produced a large increase in social economic welfare in the Nordic area. The week was characterised by high variation in wind power production. The flow- based method allowed increased transmission capacity between bottle-necked areas which balanced the price differences and increased the producer surplus greatly in surplus areas. There is also a gain in social economic welfare in the external markets this week. 1

FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    2

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

FB external report for w11, 2017

Contents of the reportSubject Page

Comments 1

Market analysis 2

Socio-economical welfare 3-5

Congestion rent 6

Non-intuitive flow 7

Net positions 8-9

Prices 10-13

System Price 14

Power system impact analysis 15-16

Cross-border flows and capacities 17-25

CommentsHighlights

Known errors

Missing hours

Some hours are missing in the weekly simulations. This can be due to different issues:

-The input data for this hour was not available.

-They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison

between the two impossible.

During the week 11, the flow-based method produced a large increase in social economic welfare in

the Nordic area. The week was characterised by high variation in wind power production. The flow-

based method allowed increased transmission capacity between bottle-necked areas which balanced

the price differences and increased the producer surplus greatly in surplus areas. There is also a gain

in social economic welfare in the external markets this week.

1

Page 2: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

Market analysis

Nordic

Denmark

Norway

Finland

Sweden

During the week 11, the flow-based method produced a large

increase in social economic welfare in the Nordic area. The flow-

based method allowed increased flows from north to

southeastwards during low wind periods and from south to

northwestwards during high wind periods. This balanced the price

differences and increased the producer surplus greatly in surplus

areas and decreased the overall congestion rent. There was also a

gain in SEW this week in the external markets.

This week Denmark expericened a gain in social economic welfare.

The gain is mainly due to flow-based method allowed increased

flows from Denmark to Sweden during peak wind periods on the

15th and the 19th which lead to increase in producer surplus in

Denmark.

Norway experiences the biggest gain in social economic welfare in

the Nordics this week. This it mainly due to large increase in

producer surplus. The flow-based method allowed increased flows

from north to south during lower wind production periods and

increased flows from south to north during high wind periods which

resulted in less bottle-necks.

This week Finland experiences a loss in social economic welfare.

The loss is mainly due to higher prices on the night of 15th where

NTC method resulted in near zero prices. The increased prices

resulted in a larger loss in consumer surplus in Finland.

Sweden experiences a gain in social economic welfare during the

week. There is a large increase in producer surplus during the night

of 15th when high wind production resulted in near zero prices in

the NTC method. The flow-based method allowed about a

significant increase in export capacity from SE to NO which resulted

in increased prices and increased producer surplus in Sweden.

Summary of market analysis

2

Page 3: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

Socio-economical welfareThe socio-economical welfare, i.e. the sum of consumer surplus, producer surplus and congestion

rent, for Flow Based (FB) compared to Net Transfer Capacity (NTC) are shown in the following

charts.

- 1.5

- 1.0

- 0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

DK NO SE FIN

FB-NTC

M€

Nordic socio-economic per country

Congestion rent Producer surplus

Consumer surplus -200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

DK NO SE FIN

FB-NTCk€

Total Nordic socio-economic

welfare per country

- 0.4

- 0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

FB-NTC

M€

External socio-economic welfare per

stakeholder

Congestion rent Producer surplus

Consumer surplus

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

FB-NTC

k€

Total External socio-economic

welfare

3

Page 4: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

The weekly socio-economical welfare per day and in total are shown in the following charts.

-2

-1

0

1

2

32

01

7-0

3-1

3

20

17

-03

-14

20

17

-03

-15

20

17

-03

-16

20

17

-03

-17

20

17

-03

-18

20

17

-03

-19

FB-NTC

M€

Nordic socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and day

Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus

-4

-2

0

2

4

FB-NTC

M€

…a d i total

050

100150200250

20

17

-03

-13

20

17

-03

-14

20

17

-03

-15

20

17

-03

-16

20

17

-03

-17

20

17

-03

-18

20

17

-03

-19

FB-NTC

k€

Total Nordic socio-economic welfare per day

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FB-NTC

k€

...and in total

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

20

17

-03

-

13

20

17

-03

-

14

20

17

-03

-

15

20

17

-03

-

16

20

17

-03

-

17

20

17

-03

-

18

20

17

-03

-

19

FB-NTC

M€

External socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and day

Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

FB-NTC

M€

...and in total

-50

0

50

100

150

200

20

17

-03

-13

20

17

-03

-14

20

17

-03

-15

20

17

-03

-16

20

17

-03

-17

20

17

-03

-18

20

17

-03

-19

FB-NTC

k€

Total External socio-economic welfare per day

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

FB-NTC

k€

…a d i total

4

Page 5: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

The hourly socio-economical welfare for each country are shown in the following charts.

-10

-5

0

5

10

-100

-50

0

50

100

0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520 1 6 111621

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

FB-NTC

Su k

SEW

per

stak

ehol

der k

€ Denmark, socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and hour

Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus Sum

-4

-2

0

2

4

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520 1 6 111621

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

FB-NTC

Su k

SEW

per

stak

ehol

der k

€ Finland, socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and hour

Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus Sum

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-80

-30

20

70

0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520 1 6 111621

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

FB-NTC

Su k

SEW

per

stak

ehol

der k

€ Norway, socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and hour

Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus Sum

-10

-5

0

5

10

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520 1 6 111621

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

FB-NTC

Su k

SEW

per

stak

ehol

der k

€ Sweden, socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and hour

Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus Sum

5

Page 6: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

Congestion rentThe total congestion rent, i.e. the product of flow volume and price difference, per border is shown in

the following chart. Some borders are experience negative congestion rent with Flow Based due to

non-intuitive netflows from a higher priced bidding area to a lower priced bidding area. A decrease in

congestion rent is due to less border flow and/or smaller price area difference.

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

BE > FRBE > NL

DE > DK1DE > DK2

DE > FRDE > NL

DE > SE4DK1 > DK1A

DK1 > DK2DK1 > NO2DK1 > SE3

DK1A > NO2DK1A > SE3

DK2 > SE4EE > ERIEE > FINEE > LV

FIN > FREFIN > NO4FIN > SE1FIN > SE3FR > GB1

GB1 > GB2GB2 > NLLBE > LTLBI > LT

LRE > LVLRI > LVLT > LV

LT > PLALT > SE4

NL > NO2NO1 > NO1A

NO1 > NO2NO1 > NO3NO1 > NO5NO1 > SE3

NO1A > NO2NO1A > NO5

NO2 > NO5NO3 > NO4NO3 > NO5NO3 > SE2NO4 > SE1NO4 > SE2

PL > PLAPLA > SE4SE1 > SE2SE2 > SE3SE3 > SE4

NO1 > NO2_Skagerrak

M€

FB NTC

6

Page 7: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

Non-intuitive flowThe number of hours with "non-intuitive flow", i.e. hours with flow from a high priced area to a low

priced area, and the sum of the resulting negative congestion rent is shown in the following diagram.

0 0 2

33

0

43

30

40

16

45

3

24

51

60

16

54

16

67

28

42 42

0

36

4642

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

DE

> D

K1

DE

> D

K2

DE

> S

E4

DK

1 >

DK

2

DK

1 >

NO

2

DK

1 >

SE

3

DK

2 >

SE

4

FIN

> N

O4

FIN

> S

E1

FIN

> S

E3

LT >

SE

4

NL

> N

O2

NO

1 >

NO

2

NO

1 >

NO

3

NO

1 >

NO

5

NO

1 >

SE

3

NO

2 >

NO

5

NO

3 >

NO

4

NO

3 >

NO

5

NO

3 >

SE

2

NO

4 >

SE

1

NO

4 >

SE

2

PL

> S

E4

SE

1 >

SE

2

SE

2 >

SE

3

SE

3 >

SE

4

k€/w

eek

h/w

ee

k

Hours with non-intuitive flow and sum of negative congestion rent per

border

Number of hours with non-intuitive flows Sum negative congestion rent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 4 8 121620 0 4 8 121620 0 4 8 121620 0 4 8 121620 0 4 8 121620 0 4 8 121620 0 4 8 121620

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

Number of Nordic borders with non-intuitive flow per hour

7

Page 8: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

Nordic net position

-5000

0

5000

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

MW

h/h

Nordic net position per hour

FB NTC

0

20

40

60

80

Nordics

GW

h

…a d i total

FB NTC

-50000

500010000

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

MW

h/h

External net position per hour

FB NTC

-60

-40

-20

0

External

GW

h

...and in total

FB NTC

The Nordic and External countries daily average net position, i.e. the netted sum of electricity export

and import for each market time period ,is shown in the following charts along with the change of buy

and sell volymes.

-40

-20

0

20

DK NO SE FIN

GW

h

Nordic buy and sell volume per country

Buy volume FB-NTC Sell volume FB-NTC

-20 000

-15 000

-10 000

-5 000

0

5 000

GW

h

Buy volume of FB compared to CNTC, External

Buy volume FB-NTC Sell volume FB-NTC

8

Page 9: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

-2000-1000

0100020003000

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

MW

h/h

Denmark, net position per hour

FB NTC

-20000

2000400060008000

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

MW

h/h

Sweden, net position per hour

FB NTC

-5000

0

5000

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

MW

h/h

Norway, net position per hour

FB NTC

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

MW

h/h

Finland, net position per hour

FB NTC

40

45

50

55

Denmark

GW

h

…a d i total

FB NTC

341

342

343

344

345

Sweden

GW

h

…a d i total

FB NTC

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

Norway

GW

h

…a d i total

FB NTC

-198

-197

-196

-195

-194

-193

Finland

GW

h

…a d i total

FB NTC

The hourly average net position per Nordic country is shown in the following charts .

9

Page 10: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

Unique prices and price difference

0

5

10

15

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

Number of Nordic bidding areas with unique price

FB NTC

0

20

40

60

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/M

Wh Nordic hourly prices

FB NTC

0

50

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

FB NTC

The average number of Nordic bidding areas with unique hourly prices, and the price area difference

is shown in the following charts. The number of uniquely priced bidding areas is increasing with FB but

the average price differences between the bidding areas are lower in FB compared to NTC.

In the shatter diagram below the price with FB and the price with NTC for each hour are plotted. The

straight line represent the outcome if FB-price would be equal NTC-price. The plotted prices show

more frequent above the straight line which indicates a decreased electricity price with Flow Base.

0

10

…a d i average

FB NTC

17

22

27

32

37

17 22 27 32 37

NTC,

€/M

Wh

FB, €/MWh

Lower price

difference with FB

Lower price

difference with NTC

10

Page 11: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

Area PriceThe hourly area price for FB and NTC for each Nordic bidding area are shown in the following charts.

- 20.0 0.0

20.0 40.0 60.0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/MWh

DK2, hourly prices

FB DK2 NTC DK2

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/MWh

FIN, hourly prices

FB FIN NTC FIN

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/MWh

NO1, hourly prices

FB NO1 NTC NO1

0

10

20

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

DK2 NTC DK2

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

FIN NTC FIN

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

NO1 NTC NO1

- 20.0 0.0

20.0 40.0 60.0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/MWh

DK1 hourly prices

FB DK1 NTC DK1

0

10

20

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

FB DK1 NTC DK1

11

Page 12: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/MWh

NO2, hourly prices

FB NO2 NTC NO2

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/MWh

NO3, hourly prices

FB NO3 NTC NO3

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/MWh

NO4, hourly prices

FB NO4 NTC NO4

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/MWh

NO5, hourly prices

FB NO5 NTC NO5

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

NO2 NTC NO2

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

NO3 NTC NO3

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

NO4 NTC NO4

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

NO5 NTC NO5

12

Page 13: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/MWh

SE1, hourly prices

FB SE1 NTC SE1

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/MWh

SE2, hourly prices

FB SE2 NTC SE2

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

SE1 NTC SE1

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

SE2 NTC SE2

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/MWh

SE3, hourly prices

FB SE3 NTC SE3

0

20

40

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

SE3 NTC SE3

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218

2017-03-

13

2017-03-

14

2017-03-

15

2017-03-

16

2017-03-

17

2017-03-

18

2017-03-

19

€/MWh

SE4, hourly prices

FB SE4 NTC SE4

0.00

20.00

40.00

€/M

Wh

…a d i average

SE4 NTC SE4

13

Page 14: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

System priceThe Nordic system price is calculated without network constraints within the Nordic area, i.e. copper

plate. In the parallel simulations of FB and NTC the Nordic system price is not calculated. The different

modelling approach can though have an impact of system price due to different allocation of capacity

to the interconnectors between the Nordics countries and the rest of Europe.

The system price is calculated locally at Nord Pool after PCR, area price calculation. Calculated flows

between the Nordics and the Netherlands/Germany are taken into account as either price

independent import or as price independent export for NO2, DK1, DK2 and SE4.

System price calculation has a different area configuration compared to areas price calculation.

Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland constitute one bidding are. Baltic countries and Poland are

configured as one area each, just as when calculating area prices. Between the Nordic region and the

Baltic region + Poland the same capacities as in the PCR, area price calculation, are used when

calculating the system price.

0 500 1000 1500 2000

DK1 -> DE

DK1 <- DE

DK2 -> SE4

DK2 <- SE4

FI -> EE

FI <- EE

NO2 -> NL

NO2 <- NL

SE4 -> DE

DE -> SE4

SE4 -> LT

LT -> SE4

PL - > SE4

SE4 -> PL

Capacity [MW]

Average capacities in and out from the Nordics

per interconnector

Capacity FB

Capacity NTC

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

NTC FB NTC FB

Capacity

from the

Nordics

Capacity

to the

Nordics

Ca

pa

city

[M

W]

…a d i total

14

Page 15: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

Power system impact analysis

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

Ov

erl

oa

ds

[MW

h/h

]

Sum of CNE overloads systemwide per day

NTC - Market relevant NTC - Not market relevant

FB - Market relevant FB - Not market relevant

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

Ma

x o

ve

rlo

ad

[M

Wh

/h]

Max CNE overloads systemwide per day

NTC - Market relevant NTC - Not market relevant

FB - Market relevant FB - Not market relevant

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0 5 10 15 20 1 6 11 16 21 2 7 12 17 22 3 8 13 18 23 4 9 14 19 0 5 10 15 20 1 6 11 16 21

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

Ov

erl

oa

ds

[MW

h/h

]

Sum of CNE overloads systemwide per hour

Sum of NTC overloads Sum of FB overloads

15

Page 16: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

A erage elfare gai : 8 k€ Average reduction in overloads: -616 MWh/h

Media elfare gai : 1 k€ Median reduction in overloads: -592 MWh/h

Border flows and Cross-border capacities

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

-2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500

Increase in welfare and reduction in overloads

Hourly results Average Median

Net reduction in overloads (NTC overloads - FB overloads) [MWh/h]

Ne

t in

cre

ase

in

we

lfa

re (

FB

we

lfa

re -

NT

C

elfa

re) [

k€]

The figure below shows the net increase in welfare against the net reduction in overloads when

using FB instead of NTC. Each dot represents one hour of the week addressed in this report. Values

in the quadrant A correspond to higher welfare and larger overloads with FB. Values in quadrant B

correspond to higher welfare and smaller overloads with FB. Values in the quadrant C correspond to

lower welfare and smaller overloads with FB. Values in the quadrant D correspond to lower welfare

and larger overloads with FB.

A B

CD

The charts in the following pages show the capacities and flows on the borders between bidding

areas. The green areas show the maximum and minimum capacities calculated with the flow-based

method and blue areas with the NTC method. The green line shows the border flow calculated with

the flow-based method and the blue line with the NTC method. For example, the green areas above

the blue areas show hours when the flow-based method would enable more cross-border capacity

compared to the NTC method.

16

Page 17: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500Fl

ow (M

Wh/

h)DK1-DK1_GE

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

800

Flow

(MW

h/h)

DK1-DK1_KontiSkan

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

Flow

(MW

h/h)

DK1-DK1_Skagerrak

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

Flow

(MW

h/h)

DK1-DK1_Storebælt

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 18: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

Flow

(MW

h/h)

DK2-DK2_Kontek

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

Flow

(MW

h/h)

DK2-DK2_Storebælt

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

DK2-SE4

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1000

500

0

500

1000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

FIN-FIN_Estlink

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 19: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1000

500

0

500

1000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

FIN-FIN_FennoSkan

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

150

100

50

0

50

100

150

Flow

(MW

h/h)

FIN-FRE

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

200

100

0

100

200

300

Flow

(MW

h/h)

FIN-NO4

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

FIN-SE1

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 20: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

3000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO1-NO2

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO1-NO2_Skagerrak

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1000

750

500

250

0

250

500

750

1000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO1-NO3

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO1-NO5

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 21: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

3000

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO1-SE3

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

800

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

800

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO2-NO2_NorNed

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO2-NO2_Skagerrak

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO2-NO5

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 22: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1000

500

0

500

1000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO3-NO4

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO3-NO5

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO3-SE2

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO4-SE1

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 23: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

400

200

0

200

400

Flow

(MW

h/h)

NO4-SE2

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE1-SE2

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

7500

5000

2500

0

2500

5000

7500

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE2-SE3

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

1000

500

0

500

1000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE3-SE3_FennoSkan

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 24: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

800

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

800Fl

ow (M

Wh/

h)SE3-SE3_KontiSkan

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

2000

1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE3-SE4

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE4-SE4_Baltic Cable

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

800

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE4-SE4_NordBalt

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation

Page 25: FB external report for w11, 2017 - Nordic Regional · -They were differences in the available input data for NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible. During

2017-03-13 2017-03-14 2017-03-15 2017-03-16 2017-03-17 2017-03-18 2017-03-19

400

200

0

200

400

600

Flow

(MW

h/h)

SE4-SE4_SwePol Link

Max/min FBMax/min NTCMissing PW dataFB simulationNTC simulation