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Faults in Focus: Earthquake Science Accomplishments. Thomas H. Jordan Director, Southern California Earthquake Cente r 28 February 2014. Risk = Probable Loss (lives & dollars) = Hazard × Exposure × Fragility ÷ Resilience. Extent & density of built environment. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Faults in Focus:Earthquake Science Accomplishments
Thomas H. JordanDirector, Southern California Earthquake Center
28 February 2014
Land-Use Policies& Planning
Risk = Probable Loss (lives & dollars) = Hazard × Exposure × Fragility ÷ Resilience
Structural & nonstructural vulnerability
Extent & density of built environment
Faulting, shaking, tsunami, landsliding,
liquefaction
Disaster response,insurance, CAT bonds
Earthquake Engineering& Building Codes
Eqk Preparedness & Emergency Response
Hazard Characterization is the Key to Risk Reduction
Dire
ct E
cono
mic
Loss
($ b
illio
ns)
Economic Losses in Four Recent U.S. Earthquakes
> $40 billion
17 Jan 1994 Northridge Earthquake (M6.7)occurred on an unknown blind thrust fault…
mainshock
aftershocks
N
N
Science Accomplishments• Since Northridge, earthquake science sponsored by the USGS and
NSF has – improved our understanding of seismic hazards for land-use planning,
earthquake engineering, earthquake preparedness, and emergency management
– enabled new technologies for tracking earthquake cascades, including operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and earthquake early warning (EEW)
Earthquake origin time
Southern California Seismic Network in 2014
1. Development of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS)
High-performance stations
2. Improved mapping of seismic activity
Northridge fault in yellowOther blind thrust faults in red
LA center
Southern California Fault Model (2013)
3. Improved mapping of active faults
Projected losses$82 B - $252 B3,000 - 18,000 fatalities142,000 -735,000 displaced households30,000 - 99,000 tons of debris
Puente Hills EarthquakeScenarios(Magnitude 7.1 to 7.5)
Percent Building Loss
M7.2
Field et al. (2005)
4. Better earthquake scenarios
5. Deployment of dense geodetic networks to measure deformation
Pacific-North America plate motion
50 mm/yr
North American plate
Pacific plate
San Andreas Fault
Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN)
North American plate
Pacific plate
San Andreas Fault
Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN)
5. Deployment of dense geodetic networks to measure deformation
Pacific-North America plate motion
50 mm/yr
UCERF2
Earthquakes
Active Faults
Tectonic Motions
6. Integration of seismic, geodetic, and geologic data into probabilistic earthquake rupture forecasts
Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF)
New release in 2014
National Seismic Hazard Map (2008)
7. National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP)
ShakingIntensity
Eqk RuptureForecast
Ground MotionModel
LA region
SFBA
8. Development of simulation-based urban seismic hazard models
CyberShake (2013) Hazard Model
CyberShake model of the Los Angeles region, comprising over
200 million synthetic seismograms
8. Development of simulation-based urban seismic hazard models
Simulation of M7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault
9. Deployment of a prototype Earthquake Early Warning system
Simulation of M7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault
Seismic stations
Earthquake Early Warning
Simulation of M7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault
Conclusions and Recommendations
• Earthquake science sponsored by the USGS and NSF has – improved our understanding of seismic hazards for land-use
planning, earthquake engineering, earthquake preparedness, and emergency management
– enabled new technologies for tracking earthquake cascades, including operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and earthquake early warning (EEW)
• Congress should – reauthorize the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program
to continue this R&D and its implementation– fund the USGS to deploy OEF and EEW systems in California,
Washington, and other at-risk states
End
