Asparagus , Cucumbers.. Greon Garlic , Grgen Onions., Herbs , Halr1oom Tomatoee, Rad Grape Tomatoes,

Snow Peas. strawbGrr!Gs , &.mmGr Squash , Tomatoes

BAJA CALIFORNIA

SUR , ,

Asparagus . Bell Peppers- Green , Red

and Yellow. Cucl.rnbers , Eggplant. Green Beans,

Green Gano , Green Onions. Herbs , Hertoom Tomatogs , Mini Peppers .

Red Cherry Tomatoes , Red Grape Tomatoes .

Roma Tomatoes , Snow Peas. strawberries ,

Sum~ Squash, Tomatoes

Asparagus.. Basil , 81111 Plll)pers- Greon , Rc>d, Yellow and OrengG , Brussels Sprouts , ChGny TomatDGs, Cucl.rnbers , Englsh Cucumbers.. Eggplant , G,-n BGans, GrapGfrult,

•• _ . Hlllnoom TomatoGs , Hot PGppGrB, Melons , Minl Peppers , - - Rad Grape Toma!DGs, Roma TomatoGs , Sugar Snap Peas.

Blackberries,

Tomatoes. Tomatiloa. Sl.nY'nclr Squash , Valencia Oranges , Wlntar Squash , Zucchini

B1111 Pvppeni- Green, Rad. Yellow and Orange , Cucumbers , Eggplant.

English CUCUTlbers, Mini Pvppera , Rad Grape Tomatoes , Roma Tomatoes .

Sum!Ta' Sq.ash, Tomatoee , Zucchini

Cucumbers , •• JALISCO Raspberries ,' ·· · strawberries

Blackberries , Hass Avocados , Raspberries ,

strawberries Herbs

Tommy Atkns

Mangos

Limes

Farm Labor & Mexican Produce Philip Martin: plmartin@ucdavis.edu

Highlights • Half of US fresh fruit; ¼ of fresh vegetables, are

imported. Mexico: half of fruit and ¾ of vegetables • LA Times December 2014 & media reports:

exporters exploit workers, use forced & child labor • CIESAS-Migration Dialogue-Wilson – Top-down statistical data to confirm or refute these

bottom-up reports – Methodology: interview 300 workers per commodity in

proportion to size of farm. If 10 largest farms produce halfof tomatoes in Sinaloa, 150 worker interviews on 10 farms

– Interpret data: focus groups with stakeholders – Timeline: interviews & focus groups in Winter 2019, report

with recommendations in Fall 2019

trade balance with:

$20 billion

1994 Nafta goes into effect 0

-20

-40

-60

-80

. . •

. • • --- ·--.

I 1990 '

. • • • • • • • •

• • . . . • • . • . - ,- ,- ,

I I 12000 ,- ,- ,- ,- ,- ,- ,

1 Canada Mexico

I '10 1 , - , I ',16

NAFTA: Comparative advantage & econ of scale. US trade deficit

United Stat ,es-Mex ico agricultural trade , 1990-2015

Billion U.S. d'olla s 25

20

5

0

5

NAFTA'sinitial imp ementa1ion

U.S. agricuttural exports, to Me ico

U.S. A ricultural im ort from Mexico

Completion of NAFTA's transhionto intraregional fee trade

0 1'9 0 1 92 19 1 · 6 19 ,s 2000 2002 2004 .200 2008 2010 20112 2014

C I n y r

ore ha1n two - hirds of US . agricultural ! imports from Mexico con 1i ted of vege able ·fruit , or eer in 2016

0 her gr - ins and feeds

2% Biscuits and wafers

3% 0th r ug r nd related products

3% Canes gar

3% , er nim Is and nim I roducts

4% B f and beef varley me ts

5% Othe ver g s,

e cludln tr i Juice %

Other agricul tural

produc s 9%

Peppers 5%

Big 3 Mex X: Tomatoes, Avocados, Berries = half $11 billion F&V imports from

Mexico

Grains oilseeds meat and related products made up about three-fourths of U.S. agricult ural exports to exlco in 2016

Othe sug r nd related products

2% HFCS

2% Fruit. vegetables, and preparations,

including juice 7%

Other agricultural products

15%

Other oilseeds and related products

9%

Beef and beef

Por'k and por'k variety m ats

6%

Com, DOGS, and cracked com

17%

Big 3 US ag exports to Mexico Corn, grain, meat

I. Fruit Imports from Mexico

($millions)

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

_(','\ _C\Cb _(',o, ~() ~'\- ~"\t ~"> ~ ~ . ~<o "\I 10- "\t IJ' "\t IJ' "\IC) "\t C) "\t C) "\t C) "\t C) "\t C) "\t C)

~ Avocados (80440) ~ Raspberries, blackberries (HS 80120) ___.. strawberries (HS 81010) ~ Lemons, limes (HS 80550) ...,._. Watermelons (HS 80711) ~ Cranberries, blueberries (HS 81040) ....,..__ Canateloupe, melon (HS 80719) - oranges, fresh (HS 80510)

Figure 2.Vegetable Imports from Mexico

($millions)

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

()()'\ (:j()'b <:::JC)°' '"''\,(:j ~'\, ~"\t ~'>) ~ ~ ~<o '"'v '"'v ~ "\I 'V "\t C) "\IC) "\t <:) "\IC) "\t C) "\t <:)

~ Tomatoes (HS 70200) --- Peppers (HS 70960) ---- Cucumbers (HS 70700) ~ Asparagus (HS 70920) ~ Pumpkins, squash (HS 70993) ~ Onions, sha llots (HS 70310) .......... Cabbage, kale (HS 70490) - Beans (HS 70820

US fruit & vegetable imports increased, led by avocados & tomatoes (blue) Red fruit = raspberries & blackberries; red veg = peppers

Fruits and Vegetables Shipped to U.S. Distribution Centers ~

1998

Large delivery from Central America to Miam~ Fla.

2005

2012

April

11 million metric tons 30% imported (outer ring)

•

3.6 million metric tons

3J million metric tons

r- September ~

21 million metrictons

Small delivery from Canada to Detroit, Mich.

27 million metric tons

12 million metric tons

Grcles: Areas depict percent of tonnage; local farm sales not induded. Maps: Each dot represents two shipments from a region outside the U.S.

(no dots for domestic shipments). Dot size reflects shipment size.

� Domestic � Canada � Europe � Middle East � Asia Padfic Africa South America � Central America � Mexico

Share of imports in US F&V consumption rising: 40% in April; 30% in September

Mexico: major comparative advantage is climate: Export when US is NOT producing Mexico exporting tomatoes all months of the year

Mexican protected culture: higher yields, better quality, & extended growing season

COUNTRY PERCENT OF TOTAL TOMATO EXPORTS

1. MEXICO

2. NETHERLANDS 19.0%

3. SPAIN 12.6%

4.MOROCCO 6.1%

5. CANADA 4.4%

6. FRANCE 4.2%

7. UNITED STATES 4.2%

8. BELGIUM 3.4%

9.JORDAN 3.0% 10. TURKEY 2.9°/a 11. ITALY 2.3% 12. CHINA 2.0% 13. AZERBAIJAN 1.1% 14. INDIA 0.9°/o 15.BELARUS 0.8%

. .

VALUE OF EXPORTS

$2.1 BILLION

$1 .6 billion

$1. 1 billion

$509.2 million

$373. 1 million

$355.1 million

$352.0 million

$287.9 million

$255.5 million

$239.9 million

$191.4 million

$170.3 million

$92. 1 million

$76. 1 million

$66.4 million

.,,

.,

.;

.,

., J

., ~

.,

.,

✓

,, .,

z $50i 4

mRRE0s 0 : C!:

$5� 1------- 4 CORREOS 0 ~ ------ C!:

$501 ------ 4 CORREOS 0 : ------ C!:

Mexico: 25% of global tomato exports in 2016

3. Monthly Selected Fruit Imports from Mexico, 20 16

($millions) 250

.fr ,X;«> ~ 51.~ ~ .;::,~ .;::,'-' ..:)0 ~ 6 0~ ~(J ) ' ~ ~ ~ 'i 'i ~ c., 0 ~ <)

~ Avocados (80440) ....._ Raspberries, blackberries (HS 80120) -.a- Strawberries (HS 81010) ......,._ Lemons, limes (HS 80550) --..- cranberr ies, blueberries (HS 81040) ~ Watermelons (HS 80711) ~ Canateloupe, melon (HS 80719) -- ora nges, fresh (HS 80510)

Figure 4. Monthly Vegetable Imports from Mexico, 20 16

($millions) 300

200

150

100

50

.fr ~<¢ ~ 51.~ ~ .;::,~ .;::,'-' ..:)0 ~ 6 0~ ~(J ) «~ ~~ ~ ~~ c.,o <)

~ Tomatoes (HS 70200) ....._ Peppers (HS 70960) -.- cucumbe rs (HS 70700) ~ Pumpkins, squash (HS 70993) ~ Cabbage, kale (HS 70490) ~ Onions, shallots (HS 70310) ~ Beans (HS 70820) - Asparagus (HS 70920)

Most Mexican imports complement US production: peak in winter months

$,mtlllio }i � All Other 2SrQOQ

� Coffee

20rQOQ � Fruit Juices

� Cocoa and Produc s

1SrQOQ � Nuts, Prepa tions

� Grains, Feeds

10rQOQ � Sugar and Products

� Animals and Products 5,000 � Beverages (exc. Juice)

� Frui sand Products 0

US ag imports from Mexico: vegetables (red) & fruits (green) = half; beer = purple

Table I. Imports as a Share of Total Supplies, 2007-2016 (Select Years) 2007 2010 2013 2016

(Import percentage)

All fresh fruit, excluding bananas 32 32 36 38 Avocados , fresh 65 73 83 86 Blueberries, fresh 44 49 52 57 Raspberries, fresh 48 51 58 48 Strawberries , fresh 8 9 13 14 Oranges, fresh 11 8 9 12 All fresh vegetab les 20 24 27 31 Asparagus, fresh 78 89 90 96 Broccoli, fresh 11 15 17 19 Cucumbers, fresh 52 62 69 74 Bell peppers, total 48 53 59 60 Tomatoes, fresh 41 53 53 57

Share of imports in US consumption = 50% or more in some commodities

PRODUCTION POPUIARITY CONTEST

70~ •••• ~---....---....-----,,-...--..---....----------~ -------------------------------------------,-----,

10

09.4% 11woN • •••••••••• - -. · · 14.1 % ~1u10N,

2CXM 2005 2006 N.>7 100IS 20m 2010 2011 1012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

NAFTA: Comparative advantage at work. Mexican share of N American auto & light truck production = 17% in 2004, 20% in 2017, projected 25% in 2020

en Mexico de Plantas de Vehfculos Ligeros

® ···: PLANT A TIJUANA ee ee@ @

PLANTA AGUASCALIENTES

I P LANTA li ERMOSILLO I

1- - - - - - - - - -I

: I

- - - , PLANTA '© _:L! A: T~ ____ _

0

PLANTA AGUASCALI ENTES 2013

PLANTA CELAYA 2014

I ,--------

PLANT A SILAO

I I

C®) PLANT A DE MOTORES 2013

I PLANTA MOTORES 1PLANTA

1 RAMOS ARIZPE 1SAL TILLO

I

: PLANTA 1 SALTILLO 2013

PLANTA ~AMOS ARIZPE

I I I I r -----------------------------------~

~ ~ I I PLANTA

1 MORELOS I 1 PLANT A PUEBLA

PLANT A TOLUCA PLANTA TOLUCA PLANTA CUATITLAN

Mexican autos & parts: 750,000 workers earn $50/day to produce 3.5 million vehicles (2016); 80% exported, mostly to US.

Autos = 25% of FDI in Mexico and 20% of Mexican manufacturing

Calgary

Billings

Denver

Inland Ports

Saltillo

Winniptg

Ottawa Port

Huron Minntapolis t Poul

Dovtnport

/Htroit Windsor

hicogo

/ndionopol,s Wichita

Oklahoma City Mtmphis

lnasco North America's SuporConidor Coalition, Inc.

NAFTA Superhighway: I-35 links northern Mexico, US Midwest, & Ontario

American Motor Vehicle Assembly in 2016 Locations and number of units assembled in thousands

Canada I

Less than 500

Ontario 1,358 CrANADA

United States Michigan Ohio _ 1,418 Indiana _ 1,355 Kentucky _ 1,258 Alabama 11,053 Tennessee 862 Missouri - 752 Illinois - 667 Texas 603 Mississippi S. Carolina 411 Georgia 372 Kansas 179 California 83

Mexico Guanajuato ·• 785 Aguascalientes- 551 Coahuila 415 Puebla 415 Sonora 311 Morelos 294 Mexico 202 San Luis Potosi 186 Nuevole6n 105 Baja California 97 Jalisco 58

1,145

Gallfomla

Baja California

\

� � 500-1,000 More than 1,000 NAFTA Superhighway: I-35 links northern Mexico, US Midwest, & Ontario

obal Top 10 Product· on Co ntr· es

2010 2014 2015 2020 1 China China China China 2 Japan United States United States United States 3 United States Japan Japan Japan 4 Germany Germany Germ1any India 5 South Korea South Korea India Germany 6 lndiia India South Korea ex A 7 Brazil A ICO Brazil 8 Spain BrazH Brazill South Korea 9 0 A Thailand Spain Thailand 10 France Canada Thailand Spain

Mexico: #7 in global auto production, #6 by 2020 Mexican auto success driven by 44 FTAs & welcome FDI

US unions: raise wages in Mexico auto & parts plants OR 50% US content

Auto worker housing in Saltillo, Detroit of Mexico Mexican minimum wage = 88 pesos/day or $5. Autos = $2/hour

NAFTA is th e worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere , but

certainly ever signed in this country.

- D~nalc!Twmp -

AZ a u OTES

Donald J. Trump O @realDon ... We are in the NAFTA (worst trade deal

Mexico & Canada.Both being very difficult,may

() 5,328 t12,784

· 21m

ever made) renegotiation process with

have to terminate?

Eating Healthy May Soon Become More Expensive U.S. imports of fruit and vegetables in 2015 by supplier country

Chile I. EU-28 -

C hi n a -

Peru I

Guatemala

Brazil

All others

@©0

• I • I ---- $1.95b

$1.63b

$1.40b

$1.11 b

o------

------' $0.74b

$0.47b

$0.41b

$0.37b

e I I $2.1b

$2.92b

0

@StatistaCharts Sources: CRS, U.S. International Trade Commission

President Trump suggested introducing a 20% import tax on all Mexican goods to fund construction of the border wall.

statista §

Trump: levy 20% tax on imports to pay for border wall?

Mexico's Imports of grains and dairy products, 2016

Imports from U.S.

U.S. share of

total imports

Corn Dairy Sorghum 13.3

mllllon metric tons

•

564.2 thousand

metric tons

423.8 thousand metric tons

•

Barley 116

thousand metr ic tons

• Mexico: $60 billion trade surplus with US in 2016, including a $7 billion ag surplus

--~-, pooo) ..,. ... � :111--tQ.OOO � OQ,OOl')OQ,000 � JOCI.OOJ•a,Q,OIIO ._ ...

r--~n,d-... -~Joilloco, ~-i.--.and 2---..1•~ · ::r=:::-:.-~:: u.1 ...... ""°'.,.....,.,..,_ =-~=~ ._....,.. . ..,, ... -..-::... o:::i..=: =· ,,,....,.,-.,lolio,\....,._..,.. «~~-..-.--

CAU

NAFTA speeded changes underway in Mexico: fewer & larger farmers

NAFTA: Freer trade in corn: Iowa &Mexican corn farmers

Iowa produced twice as much corn as Mexico in the early 1990s, and at half of the price. Exports of US

corn toMexico, & Mexico-US migration, rose together

Migration / 2000

Status Quo A Pattern

(/) +-' C Migration ro NAFTA C :i... C) r· Avoided ~ 1994 It-0 :i... a, .c E ::::J z

9'0 9,"> 00 ~ ~ ~ ' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ' Migration Pattern with Year of Economic Restructuring Economic Restructuring

Figure 3: NAFTA and Mexico-U.S. Migration

Mexico-US Migration Hump: 1995-2007 Same policies that reduce migration in long run increase migration in

short run

10.000.000 --~-- -1-r--------------------------

MEXJCAN IMMIGRA TS I UNI ED ST~ ES SINCE 1990 8.000.000

6.00CtOOO __ ___,_ __ ~-------------------------

4.000.000 1990 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

IMMIGRANTS IN UNITED STATES FROM NORTHERN TRIANG E COUNTRIES SINCE 1990

1,500,000 ---1,----t--------------------------EI Salvador

1,200,000

Guatemala

300,000

0 -------'--

1990 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

NAFTA took effect 1994; CAFTA-DR in 2006

Trump: wall on Mexico-US border

LA Times: bottom-up reports on export farms How typical is what LA Times found?

LA Times: focus on poor on-farm housing

fire) M xico's · dig nous g ons a b s d o ort tar s in the st and o st o p o a d process fr i s a d egetab I es h as ca r g i o is a p

source o agr" c I ura I bo

0

300

Focus on indigenous migrants

Contractors recruit & transport workers

Our project: Reliable top-down data • 1. Production & supply chain analysis of

tomatoes, bell peppers, cucumbers, berries,& avocados

• 2. Interview 300 farm workers in each of nine sites (Sinaloa, the Bajio, Jalisco,Michoacán), total of 2,700 interviews

• 3. Conduct focus groups in 9 areas tounderstand the data & context

• Methodology: interview workers in proportion to size of production &employment in each commodity

We need stakeholder cooperation • 1. Need production and employment shares

by commodity and state to sample workers by size of farm

• 2. Need employer cooperation to facilitate interviews (we will do some interviews offfarm to ensure no bias)

• 3. Look forward to stakeholder participation in focus groups

• 4. Welcome data, studies and suggestions – Philip Martin: plmartin@ucdavis.edu – Agustin Escobar: ageslat@gmail.com

Per cap i·ta U.S. fruit and vegetabl 1e availa bi lity , 1970-2005

200 f u

20

Americans eating more fresh fruits and vegetables

1. p r cap1 a food ava· a ·u Y P rccnt cha g , 1 70-2

All red meat - -27 % Poultr 13 °/4

Eggs - -20 °/c

ll d iry products • 7% Fluid milk - -27 °/c

Che sc 189°/4 All fr it & v gctablc - 13%

ll r it � 7% fresh fruit 29 °/4

Proc ss d tr it - -8% ll veg - 16 3/c

·resh vc - 21 % Processed veg - 123/c

Fats & oils 50 % Su rs & sw ctn rs -10%

Corn -based S\ tncr 29 1%

- 0% 0% 0% 1 0% 5 % 2003/c 2 0% 3 Q0/4 35 %

Fresh fruits up 30%; fresh vegetables 20%; cheese up 200%

Demand up for very labor intensive crops