Farm Bill Education NW Kansas Style Mark A Wood KFMA, NW

Farm Bill EducationNW Kansas Style

Mark A Wood KFMA, NW

County: Phillips Type: All ARC PLC5 Yr. Olympic Avg. County Yield 40.3 KFMA Program Yield 38.95 Yr. Olympic Avg. MYA Price $6.60 Reference Price $5.50Benchmark Revenue

Yield23 26 29 32 36 40 44 48

MYA Price PLC

Payment$7.99 $0.00 $26.60 $21.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$7.26 $0.00 $26.60 $26.60 $18.20 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$6.60 $0.00 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $17.54 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$6.44 $0.00 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $22.66 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$6.28 $0.00 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $2.66 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$6.12 $0.00 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $8.42 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$5.68 $0.00 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $24.26 $1.54 $0.00 $0.00$5.42 $3.11 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $11.94 $0.00 $0.00$5.18 $12.43 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $21.54 $0.82 $0.00$4.95 $21.37 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $10.94 $0.00$4.73 $29.91 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $20.62 $1.70$4.52 $38.07 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $11.78$4.32 $45.84 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $21.38$4.13 $53.22 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60$3.94 $60.61 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60$3.76 $67.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60$3.59 $74.20 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60$3.43 $80.42 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60 $26.60

Wheat ARC Payments vs. PLC Payments Under Different Yields and Prices for 2014/15 Marketing Year

ARC Payment

$265.98

• Wheat: Phillips County

• Payout for ARC-CO at $6.60/bu• County yield < 32 bu/ac

• ARC-CO payment maxes out at $26.60/ac

• PLC < ARC-CO max unless prices fall below $4.82

2014 Farm Bill

2**Units are $/acre. Remember payment is only on 85% of base acres**

Bench $ ARC Max$ Yld Est14/15 40.7 6.60$ 268.54$ 230.94$ 26.85$ 25 150.25$ 26.85$ 15/16 39.3 6.71$ 263.80$ 226.86$ 26.38$ 50 264.00$ -$ 16/17 39.3 6.71$ 263.80$ 226.86$ 26.38$ 40 220.40$ 6.46$ 17/18 40.0 6.13$ 245.20$ 210.87$ 24.52$ 35 200.55$ 10.32$ 18/19 38.7 5.75$ 222.33$ 191.21$ 22.23$ 55 321.20$ -$

Bench Yld

ARC Pmt Est***

Benchmark Revenue

Market Year

**Revenue Guarentee

Actual Rev

Wheat Comparison of PLC and ARC: Phillips CountyMarket Year FAPRI $ PLC Ref $ PLC Pmt PLC Yld14/15 6.01$ 5.50$ -$ 38.9 -$ 15/16 5.28$ 5.50$ 0.22$ 38.9 8.55$ 16/17 5.51$ 5.50$ -$ 38.9 -$ 17/18 5.73$ 5.50$ -$ 38.9 -$ 18/19 5.84$ 5.50$ -$ 38.9 -$

PLC Rev/Ac

*(PLC $/ac X PLC Yld) ** (Bench Yld X Bench $/bu X .86 Preimum) ***(Revenue Guarentee - Actual Revenue </= 10% of Benchmark Revenue)

Comparing the PLC to ARC-CO for Wheat in Phillips County, KS

PLC ARC-CO726.60$ 3,709.38$

5-yr Revenue on 100 acres

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60

Wheat Yield History (10 year moving average)Phillips County, KS, USDA, NASS, 1958 - 2013

Yield 10 Year Moving Average + Std Dev - Std Dev

YEAR

BUSH

ELS

PER

ACRE

+/- 8.9 bu.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

Wheat ARC-Co Revenue and PricePhillips County, KS, USDA, NASS, 1963 - 2013

Revenue Guarantee Actual Revenue MYA Price

YEAR

Dolla

rs p

er A

cre

Pric

e Pe

r Bus

hel

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

Wheat PLC Payment per AcrePhillips County, KS, USDA, NASS, 1963 - 2013

MYA Price Est PLC @90% 5 yr PLC Pmt

YEAR

Dol

lars

per

bus

hel

Dol

lars

Per

Acr

e

Total PLC: $7

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Wheat ARC-CO Payment per AcrePhillips County, KS, USDA, NASS, 1963 - 2013

5 Year Olympic Price MYA Price Est. ARC Payment

YEAR

Dol

lars

PER

BU

SHEL

DO

LLAR

S PE

R AC

RE

Total ARC: $44


Yield52 58 64 71 79 88 97 106

MYA Price PLC

Payment$6.35 $0.00 $46.71 $33.41 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$5.82 $0.00 $46.71 $46.71 $29.23 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$5.29 $0.00 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $26.12 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$5.16 $0.00 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $35.35 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$5.03 $0.00 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $44.58 $4.34 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$4.90 $0.00 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $14.61 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$4.55 $0.00 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $42.26 $1.31 $0.00 $0.00$4.35 $0.00 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $18.91 $0.00 $0.00$4.15 $0.00 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $36.51 $0.00 $0.00$3.96 $0.00 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $17.59 $0.00$3.78 $0.00 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $35.05 $1.03$3.61 $7.30 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $19.05$3.45 $20.28 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $36.01$3.29 $33.25 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71$3.14 $45.42 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71$3.00 $56.77 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71$2.87 $67.31 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71$2.74 $77.86 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71 $46.71

Corn ARC Payments vs. PLC Payments Under Different Yields and Prices for 2014/15 Marketing Year

$467.11

ARC Payment• Corn: Phillips County




2014 Farm Bill

8**Units are $/acre. Remember payment is only on 85% of base acres**

Bench $ ARC Max$ Yld Est14/15 81.0 5.29$ 428.22$ 368.27$ 42.82$ 65 259.56$ 42.82$ 15/16 76.7 5.29$ 405.31$ 348.57$ 40.53$ 90 341.10$ 7.47$ 16/17 70.0 4.89$ 342.38$ 294.44$ 34.24$ 65 258.70$ 34.24$ 17/18 70.0 4.14$ 290.11$ 249.49$ 29.01$ 45 176.40$ 29.01$ 18/19 70.0 3.96$ 277.51$ 238.66$ 27.75$ 60 238.80$ -$

Bench Yld

Benchmark Revenue

ARC Pmt EstActual Rev

Market Year

**Revenue Guarentee

Comparing the ARC-CO vs. PLC for Corn in Phillips County, KS


PLC ARC-CO-$ 9,650.74$

5-yr Revenue on 100 acresCorn Comparison of PLC and ARC: Phillips CountyMarket Year FAPRI $ PLC Ref $ PLC Pmt PLC Yld14/15 3.99$ 3.70$ -$ 81.1 -$ 15/16 3.79$ 3.70$ -$ 81.1 -$ 16/17 3.98$ 3.70$ -$ 81.1 -$ 17/18 3.92$ 3.70$ -$ 81.1 -$ 18/19 3.98$ 3.70$ -$ 81.1 -$

*PLC Rev/Ac

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

40

80

120

160

200

Corn Yield History (10 year moving average)Phillips County, KS, USDA, NASS: 1958 - 2013

YIELD 10 Yr Moving Average + Std Dev - Std Dev

YEAR

BUSH

ELS

PER

ACRE

+/- 33.7 bu.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

Corn ARC-Co Revenue and PricePhillips County, KS, USDA, NASS: 1963-2013


YEAR

Dol

lars

per

Acr

e

dolla

r Per

Bus

hel

Total ARC: $114

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Corn PLC Payment per Acre (Estmated)Phillips County, KS, USDA, NASS: 1963 - 2013


YEAR

Dol

lars

Per

Bus

hel

Dol

lars

Per

Acr

e


Yield46 51 57 63 70 78 86 94

MYA Price PLC

Payment$6.14 $0.00 $39.70 $28.26 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$5.58 $0.00 $39.70 $39.70 $23.34 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$5.07 $0.00 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $21.99 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$4.94 $0.00 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $30.18 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$4.82 $0.00 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $37.74 $4.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$4.70 $0.00 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $12.40 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$4.36 $0.00 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $36.20 $1.32 $0.00 $0.00$4.16 $0.00 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $16.92 $0.00 $0.00$3.97 $0.00 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $31.74 $0.00 $0.00$3.79 $12.07 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $15.46 $0.00$3.62 $24.89 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $30.08 $1.12$3.46 $36.95 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $16.16$3.30 $49.02 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $31.20$3.15 $60.33 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70$3.01 $70.89 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70$2.87 $81.44 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70$2.74 $91.25 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70$2.62 $100.30 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70 $39.70

Sorghum ARC Payments vs. PLC Payments Under Different Yields and Prices for 2014/15 Marketing Year

$396.98

ARC Payment

• Sorghum: Phillips County




2014 Farm Bill

13

**Units are $/acre. Remember payment is only on 85% of base acres**

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

20

40

60

80

100

120

Milo Yield History (10 year moving average)Phillips County, KS, USDA, NASS: 1958 - 2013

Yield 10 Year Moving Avg + Std Dev - Std Dev

YEAR

Bush

els

per a

cre

+/- 21.7 bu.

Bench $ ARC Max$ Yld Est14/15 71.7 5.09$ 364.54$ 313.51$ 36.45$ 80 312.58$ 0.93$ 15/16 68.7 5.09$ 349.28$ 300.38$ 34.93$ 75 265.50$ 34.88$ 16/17 59.0 4.73$ 279.07$ 240.00$ 27.91$ 40 148.40$ 27.91$ 17/18 67.0 4.05$ 271.35$ 233.36$ 27.14$ 75 291.00$ -$ 18/19 76.7 3.95$ 302.83$ 260.44$ 30.28$ 80 313.60$ -$

ARC Pmt EstBench Yld

Actual Rev

Benchmark Revenue

Market Year

**Revenue Guarentee

Sorghum Comparison of PLC and ARC: Phillips CountyMarket Year FAPRI $ PLC Ref $ PLC Pmt PLC Yld14/15 3.91$ 3.95$ 0.04$ 75.4 3.22$ 15/16 3.54$ 3.95$ 0.41$ 75.4 30.92$ 16/17 3.71$ 3.95$ 0.24$ 75.4 18.10$ 17/18 3.88$ 3.95$ 0.07$ 75.4 5.28$ 18/19 3.92$ 3.95$ 0.03$ 75.4 2.26$

*PLC Rev/Ac


Comparing the ARC-CO vs. PLC for Sorghum in Phillips County, KS

PLC ARC-CO5,081.76$ 5,416.23$

5-yr Revenue on 100 acres

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

Milo ARC-Co Revenue and PricePhillips County, KS, USDA, NASS: 1963 - 2013


YEAR

Dolla

rs p

er A

cre

dolla

rs P

er B

ushe

l

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Milo PLC Payment per Acre: 1963 - 2018Phillips County, KS, USDA, NASS


YEAR

Dol

lars

per

bus

hel

Dol

lars

Per

Acr

e

Total PLC: $52

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

Milo ARC-CO Payment per AcrePhillips County, KS, USDA, NASS: 1963 - 2013

5 Year Olympic Price MYA Price Est. ARC Payment

YEAR

Dolla

rs p

er B

ushe

l

Dolla

rs p

er a

cre

Total ARC: $64

County: Phillips Type: All ARC PLC5 Yr. Olympic Avg. County Yield 28.3 Program Yield 28.35 Yr. Olympic Avg. MYA Price $12.28 Reference Price $8.40Benchmark Revenue

Yield17 19 21 23 25 28 31 34

MYA Price PLC

Payment$14.86 $0.00 $34.75 $16.53 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$13.51 $0.00 $34.75 $34.75 $15.16 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$12.28 $0.00 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $16.43 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$11.97 $0.00 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $23.56 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$11.67 $0.00 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $30.46 $7.12 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$11.38 $0.00 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $14.37 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00$10.56 $0.00 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $3.19 $0.00 $0.00$10.08 $0.00 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $16.63 $0.00 $0.00$9.63 $0.00 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $29.23 $0.34 $0.00$9.20 $0.00 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $13.67 $0.00$8.79 $0.00 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $26.38 $0.01$8.39 $0.28 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $13.61$8.01 $11.04 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $26.53$7.65 $21.23 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75$7.31 $30.85 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75$6.98 $40.19 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75$6.67 $48.96 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75$6.37 $57.45 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75 $34.75

Soybean ARC Payments vs. PLC Payments Under Different Yields and Prices for 2014/15 Marketing Year

ARC Payment

$347.52

• Sorghum: Phillips County

• Payout for ARC-CO at $5.07/bu• County yield < 28.3 bu/ac



2014 Farm Bill

19

**Units are $/acre. Remember payment is only on 85% of base acres**

Documents

Farm Bill Education NW Kansas Style Mark A Wood KFMA, NW