Fall 2016 California & Metro - University of the Pacific · New housing starts are now projected to come in under 100,000 units for 2016, but we expect new housing starts to exceed

California & Metro

C E N T E R F O R B U S I N E S S A N D P O L I C Y R E S E A R C H

U N I V E R S I T Y O F T H E P A C I F I C E B E R H A R D T S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S

Fall 2016

ContraCosta

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

Calaveras

El Dorado

DelNorte

Humboldt

AlamedaSan Francisco

Amador

Imperial

Madera

Mariposa

Alpine

Butte

Colusa

Fresno

Glenn

Lassen

Marin

Mendocino

Inyo

Kern

Kings

Lake

Merced

Modoc

Mono

Monterey

Napa

Nevada

Orange

Placer

Plumas

Riverside

Sacra-mento

SanBenito

San Bernardino

San Diego

SanJoaquin

San Luis Obispo

San Mateo

Santa Barbara

Santa Barbara

SantaBarbara

SantaClara

Santa Cruz

Shasta

Sierra

Siskiyou

Solano

Sonoma

Stanislaus

Sutter

Tehama

Trinity

Tulare

Tuolumne

Ventura

Ventura

Yolo

Yuba



Dr. Jeffrey A. Michael, DirectorDr. Thomas Pogue, Associate DirectorNahila Ahsan, Research AnalystJesse Neumann, Economic Research AnalystNeriah Howard, Student ResearcherAnjul Shingal, Student ResearcherSydney Stanfill, Student Researcher

E-mailWebStocktonSacramento

[email protected]/CBPR209.946.7385916.340.6084

California & Metro Forecast is published by the Center for Business and Policy ResearchUniversity of the PacificEberhardt School of Business

Staff

2016-2020

Published quarterly by the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business.

Copyright © 2016 Center for Business and Policy Research. All rights reserved.

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Center’s judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Center for Business and Policy Research nor The Regents of the University of the Pacific shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Center for Business and Policy Research, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication, or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

California & Metro

Fall 2016 October 4, 2016

Contents

California Highlights .................................................. 5

Forecast Summary .............................................6 - 10

California Forecast Tables .................................11 - 16

California Forecast Charts .................................17 - 21

Fresno MSA .....................................................23 - 26

Merced MSA ....................................................27 - 30

Modesto MSA ...................................................31 - 34

Oakland MSA ................................................... 35 - 38

Sacramento MSA ..............................................39 - 42

San Francisco MSA .......................................... 43 - 46

San Jose MSA ..................................................47 - 50

Stockton MSA ..................................................51 - 54

Center for Business and Policy Research 5

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS

Highlights of the Fall 2016 California Forecast

• California is forecast to experience relatively steady growth in real gross state product, averaging 2.5% growth through 2020.

• The California unemployment rate has reached its low point in this cycle and is projected to stabilize between 5.5% and 6% over the next four years.

• Nonfarm payroll jobs continue to grow at a solid 2.6% statewide after exceeding 3% in the previous three years. Nonfarm payroll growth is projected to drop below 2% in 2017 and settle towards a consistent 1% growth rate in 2018 and beyond.

• Health Services has become the largest employment sector in the state and is projected to add an additional 50,000 positions over the next 12 months, slightly less than the 65,000 jobs added in the past 12 months.

• Professional Scientific & Technical Services is a high-paying sector that has fueled the recovery. Growth in this sector will slow to about 25,000 jobs over the next year compared to over 50,000 in some recent years as Silicon Valley growth cools.

• Growing tourism and a gradual shift in consumer spending from retail to restaurants has fueled rapid growth in the Leisure & Hospitality sector. However, this sector’s growth is slowing to 30,000 new jobs over the next 12 months and will cool further to 15,000 new jobs each year as the higher minimum wages lead to slower hiring.

• State and local government employment will be one of the slowest growing sectors, projected at 1% or less job growth over the next several years as state and local governments grapple with slower revenue growth and rising pension costs. State and local government payrolls in California have still not recovered to their pre-recession level.

• About 35,000 new Construction jobs are anticipated in each of the next three years, just below a 4% annual growth rate. Despite this expected growth, there will still be fewer Construction jobs in 2020 than before the recession.

• Single-family housing starts are growing slowly and are projected to just eke over 50,000 units in 2016. We project a much more substantial increase to 77,000 units in 2017 as the state’s growing housing shortage finally spurs interest in new homes.

• Multi-family housing starts have surpassed pre-recession levels, but growth has stalled in recent months and 2016 is on track to be similar to the 45,000 multi-family units produced in 2015. We expect multi-family growth to resume in 2017 and exceed 60,000 units by 2019.

6 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016

FORECAST SUMMARY

California Outlook

The California economy is maintaining steady growth as the election is about five weeks away. The unemployment rate is about 5.5% and is not projected to drop any further in this cycle. We project the unemployment rate will slowly drift upwards towards 6% over the next few years as labor force growth picks up to match or slightly exceed projected employment growth. California has continued to add jobs at an over 2% pace throughout 2016, but we expect job growth will slowly recede to a 1% pace over the next two years.

Solid job growth is fueling increased demand for housing across California. Both rents and home prices are growing at about a 10% pace in most areas of California, including inland markets such as Sacramento, which is somewhat faster than we had projected. Construction of new homes and apartments continues to recover from the recession but has grown more slowly than we have forecast. This weak growth in housing supply is contributing to rising housing costs, and over the next few years is likely to lead to somewhat slower economic growth in California over the long-run. In the near-term, we expect this continued strong

demand for housing will drive a significant increase in construction activity in 2017 and 2018. New housing starts are now projected to come in under 100,000 units for 2016, but we expect new housing starts to exceed 125,000 units in 2017 and surpass 150,000 units in 2019 and 2020. Even this much higher level of production will not cause housing prices to decline in a state that is projected to add nearly 400,000 new residents per year.

While the state’s economy has not yielded too many changes of late, the economic policy environment has been full of surprises. This past spring the state of California increased the state minimum wage to $15 by 2022, nearly doubling in less than eight years (the minimum wage was $8 per hour until July 2014, and is currently at $10). A few months later, the Republican nomination for President went to someone who centers their economic policy on protectionism and openly threatens trade wars with the primary trading partners of the U.S. In addition to the Presidential election, California’s ballot includes 17 statewide voter initiatives, several of which could have important economic consequences, and a number

Table 1. California Annual Forecast Summary

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Real Gross State Product (% change) 4.2 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.4

Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change) 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.9

Housing Starts (thousands) 91.4 96.9 128.2 144.1 152.9 159.0


FORECAST SUMMARY

of local tax measures, often for transportation. While there are scores of important state and local elections, the next few paragraphs briefly discuss the Presidential election and a few of the voter initiatives with potentially significant economic consequences in the near to medium term.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION A Hillary Clinton presidency is expected to

continue the incremental advance of economic policies endorsed by President Obama. She has proposed raising the national minimum wage, increased spending on infrastructure and early childhood education, and free public college tuition. To raise revenue to support this new spending, she proposes to increase income taxes by limiting itemized deductions, higher tax rates on those with incomes over $5 million annually, and increase estate taxes. Clinton’s economic policy would invest in areas that would have substantial long-run benefits for the U.S. economy, but tax increases could reduce growth in the near term. It is uncertain how much of this agenda would be implemented, and a Clinton election is unlikely to have major impact on the economic forecast.

If Donald Trump is elected, the near term economic effects are highly uncertain. If he were to follow through on promises to impose tariffs on certain imported goods, threaten leaving the World Trade Organization, and restrict immigration, a Trump presidency would have negative effects on both the U.S. and global economy. However, other parts of Donald Trump’s proposals could stimulate the U.S. economy in the near-term and he is likely to want to do what he can to give the economy an immediate boost so that voters can feel the effect of his election. For example, he proposes a large tax cut, an even larger investment in infrastructure than Clinton, increased military spending without any offsetting proposals to significantly reduce government spending in other areas. If Congress were to go along with these elements of the

plan, the economy would receive a near-term jolt from increased deficit spending while the federal debt would grow substantially over time. While stimulative in the short-run, the increase to the deficit will create long-run problems for the U.S. economy, especially considering that the current deficit is already very high by historic standards. Overall, the near-term economic effects of a Trump presidency are highly uncertain between the effects of global instability and domestic stimulus. However, the long-term economic effects of his approach are seen as negative in the view of most economists.

While polls show slightly more voters trust Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton to manage the economy, no modern Presidential candidate has received less support from professional economists than Trump. Leading Republican economists who have consistently served as advisors to Republican Presidents, such as Martin Feldstein and Greg Mankiw, have publicly denounced Trump’s economic platform. Trump placed third behind Clinton and Libertarian Gary Johnson in a poll of the National Association of Business Economists. The Economist magazine lists his potential election as one of the top threats to the global economy. Trump certainly did not win over economists during the first Presidential debate when he criticized highly-respected Fed Chair Janet Yellen for “playing politics” with interest rates, raising concerns that he could try to reduce the independence of the Federal Reserve. SELECTED CALIFORNIA PROPOSITIONS

As mentioned previously, there are 17 propositions on the California ballot. The four highlighted below are likely to have the largest economic effects over the next few years. The discussion of potential economic effects should not be interpreted as taking a position in favor or opposition of any of these Propositions. Some Propositions not on this list, including one requiring a public vote on large


FORECAST SUMMARY

revenue bonds, continuing a hospital fee, and an increase to the cigarette tax could also affect billions of dollars of economic activity over time, but we do not believe they will have as large economic impacts in the near term.

Prop 51: $9 billion School BondThe Governor opposes this bond and like many

opponents would like to see a new system for allocating school construction funds that prioritize lower-income communities and puts most of the cost of new schools on new development. The current and historic system of allocating bond funds requires matching local funds and thus is thought to favor districts with new development or that pass local parcel taxes to generate the local cost share. There are many local school tax measures on the November ballot, in large part motivated by Proposition 51. With funds from the 2006 school bond mostly exhausted, development fees could double. Fees could increase by $4 to $6 per square foot in most areas, or $10,000 on a 2,000 square foot house if Proposition 51 fails. At this point, Proposition 51 appears to be leading in the polls. However, if it fails, we will likely revise down our projected increase in housing starts for 2017.

Prop 55: 12 year Extension of Income Tax Increase on High Earners

In 2012, California voters approved a tax increase on incomes over $250,000 per year and a small sales tax increase that would begin phasing out in 2018. This proposition would allow the sales tax increase to expire, but would extend the tax rate increase on high-earners through the year 2030. Since 2012, California has the highest income tax rates in the nation on households with over a million dollars in annual income, and this proposition would make that temporary measure effectively permanent. Since the 2012 increase is authorized for a few more years, failure would not have immediate economic

effects but would put tax policy at the center of the 2018 election for a Governor to replace Jerry Brown. While the tax increase did not cause an out-migration of high-earners from California as some opponents predicted, any expected economic response to a marginal tax rate increase would only be expected over time. A long-term extension of state income taxes that top out at 13.3%, about double the top rate in most states, could further solidify California’s reputation for a poor business climate and perpetuates the problem of highly-volatile tax revenue strongly impacted by investment income. The tax increase has been credited with stabilizing the state budget and restoring education funding that had slipped behind most other states, while targeting the tax increase on high earners who have seen the largest income gains.

Prop 61: Drug Prices This is the most expensive campaign, highlighting

its economic significance to the pharmaceutical industry. With drug price increases by the pharmaceutical industry receiving a lot of negative press, an initiative promising to limit drug costs – even if it only applies to certain government programs – is expected to be politically popular. While the direct effect of the proposal is to lower drug prices for certain state programs by linking them to the low negotiated rates of the Veterans Administration (VA), there could be variety of unintended consequences that are typical of efforts to adjust prices through laws and policy. For example, the industry could refuse to supply certain drugs at the mandated price and negotiated prices with the VA could change since it would now be setting prices by proxy for other programs. With billions of spending every year on prescription drugs in the balance, Prop 61 would have significant economic effects if passed.


FORECAST SUMMARY

Prop 64. Marijuana Legalization The implications of Proposition 64 are far

reaching, encompassing criminal justice, health, economics and more. Economically, Proposition 64 would have significant effects, creating a new multi-billion industry and unleashing a large amount of investment in new enterprises. Since illegal marijuana is already a multi-billion dollar business, it might seem the economic effects would be small. However, the legalization would likely lead to some increase in demand and more importantly would result in substantial new investment as enterprises positioned themselves to take advantage of a new and restructured industry. Marijuana production could shift from rural areas where the advantage is the ability to hide from enforcement authorities, to moderate cost urban areas in inland California with better access to markets. However, Proposition 64 allows local governments to regulate or even ban marijuana related businesses, so the structure of the economic change in California will critically depend on the reaction of local governments. Some of the largest job gains are likely to occur in processing of marijuana related products, and these new manufacturing jobs would have to be located in California since products could not be transported across state lines. Legalization will not eliminate the illegal industry in California, as the state is expected to remain a major exporter of marijuana to other states where it remains illegal. Disclosure: CBPR has been studying the economic impact of this potential new industry for an investment firm supporting legalization, and will release the results of that study in the next few weeks.

THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK

The long predicted Bay Area “slow down” is occurring slower than expected. The San Jose and San Francisco areas continue to lead the state’s employment growth, although it has cooled from an over 4% annual pace to a still vibrant 3.5%

growth in 2016, about a full percentage point more than we predicted a year ago. This slow-down should continue as venture capital investment is declining, and extreme housing costs will deter the migration of talent to the area, causing some residents and companies to question their long-run future in the region. Despite these challenges, the dynamic Bay Area economy should continue to grow jobs faster than the California average and attract significant investment and people to its dynamic entrepreneurial culture and unique quality of life. We expect a gradual slowdown to 2.3% job growth in 2017, followed by a gradual path to 1% job growth in 2019 and beyond as unemployment stabilizes just over 3%. The Fresno area continues to see steady growth with the unemployment rate stabilizing just under 10%, a high number by any national comparison, but relatively good for this agriculture centered economy where double-digit unemployment is a historical norm.

The outward force of the Bay Area economy will result in the Stockton MSA continuing to have the fastest economic growth of inland regions as it is closest to the Bay Area. Employment growth is on track for a 3.7% gain in 2016 and is projected to remain above 3% in San Joaquin County for 2017, the fastest of all Northern California metro areas. In particular, the southern tier of San Joaquin County (Tracy, Manteca, Lathrop) is being fueled by rapid job growth in transportation and distribution, rising incomes for Bay Area commuters, increasing demand for housing that is restarting long-dormant new construction. The data show Modesto and Merced are also growing employment at an over 3% rate for 2016, but we feel this preliminary employment data for 2016 may be slightly overstating growth in the other North San Joaquin Valley counties at the moment and therefore have decreased our 2017 job growth forecast to below 2% growth to compensate.


FORECAST SUMMARY

As the long-anticipated Golden One Center opens in downtown Sacramento, the private sector in the capital region is showing signs of life while employment growth in its foundational public sector slows. However, public sector salaries are rising again in Sacramento even as slow state employment growth results in overall job growth in the Sacramento area lagging behind most inland regions.

While the slowest to recover, we are still optimistic about the future of the Sacramento economy, and expect that it will retain more stable growth as some surrounding economies slow-down in the coming years and private sector employment opportunities in the Sacramento area continue to expand.

Table 3. Bay Area Metro Forecast Summary

Metro Area Non-farm Payroll Employment (% change) Unemployment Rate (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

San Francisco 4.7 3.4 2.3 1.8 1.2 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1

San Jose 4.1 3.7 2.3 1.6 1.0 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.3

Oakland 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.0 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8

California 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.8 6.2 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8

NOTE: San Francisco MSA includes San Francisco and San Mateo counties. Oakland MSA includes Contra Costa and Alameda Counties. San Jose MSA includes Santa Clara and San Benito Counties.

Table 2. Central Valley Metro Forecast Summary

Metro Area Non-farm Payroll Employment (% change) Unemployment Rate (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sacramento 3.0 2.4 1.9 1.3 1.2 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9

Stockton 3.6 3.7 3.2 1.8 1.1 8.9 8.2 8.1 7.9 8.2

Modesto 2.7 3.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 9.5 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.5

Merced 1.9 3.1 1.8 1.4 1.6 11.4 10.6 10.3 9.9 9.7

Fresno 3.8 2.9 2.1 1.1 1.0 10.2 9.5 9.8 9.8 10.1

California 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.8 6.2 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8

NOTE: Sacramento MSA includes Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, and Yolo Counties. Stockton, Merced, Fresno and Modesto MSAs correspond to San Joaquin, Merced, Fresno and Stanislaus Counties.


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 1. Annual Summary

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Personal Income and Gross State ProductPersonal Income (Bil. $) 1537.1 1583.4 1691.0 1812.3 1849.5 1939.5 2061.1 2150.3 2255.3 2376.5 2498.6 2626.7

Calif. (%Ch) -4.1 3.0 6.8 7.2 2.1 4.9 6.3 4.3 4.9 5.4 5.1 5.1Gross State Product (Bil. $) 1913.7 1960.9 2031.3 2121.6 2215.2 2325.0 2458.5 2559.4 2689.7 2810.6 2934.6 3067.2

Calif. (%Ch) -4.0 2.5 3.6 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.7 4.1 5.1 4.5 4.4 4.5Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 1913.7 1931.5 1958.1 2004.4 2055.6 2118.9 2206.8 2262.3 2328.6 2385.4 2441.9 2501.3

Calif. (%Ch) -4.4 0.9 1.4 2.4 2.5 3.1 4.2 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.4

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)Employment -4.0 -0.5 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9Labor Force 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.0CA Unemployment Rate (%) 11.2 12.1 11.6 10.3 8.8 7.5 6.2 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.9

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)Total nonfarm California -5.6 -1.0 1.1 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.9Mining -9.3 3.0 7.6 5.9 0.4 3.1 -8.2 -11.0 1.2 4.7 1.9 1.6Construction -21.0 -9.8 0.2 5.1 8.1 5.8 7.7 4.9 3.2 4.1 2.9 2.3Manufacturing -10.1 -3.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.4 -0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 Nondurable Goods -8.2 -2.4 -0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.7 -0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 Durable Goods -11.2 -3.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.6 1.8 -0.5 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.9Trans. Warehs. & Utility -6.0 -1.7 1.7 2.7 3.2 4.1 5.8 2.5 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.4Wholesale Trade -8.3 -0.2 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.3 1.5 2.3 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2Retail Trade -7.2 -0.3 1.9 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.8 0.6 -1.0 -0.3 -0.5Financial Activities -7.0 -2.9 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.0 2.1 1.5 0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4Prof. and Business Services -7.9 0.7 2.8 5.0 4.4 3.5 3.0 3.3 4.2 2.8 1.7 1.9Edu & Health Services 3.0 0.8 1.4 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.8 3.8 2.3 1.1 1.2 1.0Leisure & Hospitality -4.4 -0.1 2.3 4.1 4.9 4.9 3.9 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.9Information -7.4 -2.8 0.5 1.0 3.2 3.1 4.2 2.9 -1.4 3.7 0.2 -0.5Federal Gov't. 1.1 6.8 -4.6 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 0.8 0.9 -0.2 -1.6 -1.8 4.7State & Local Gov't. -1.8 -2.1 -1.3 -1.3 0.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8

Other IndicatorsPopulation (thous) 37012.2 37382.8 37743.9 38100.9 38462.7 38834.8 39189.8 39552.6 39931.1 40325.8 40723.5 41118.3

(%Ch) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 36.0 39.1 45.8 56.0 72.6 79.1 91.4 96.9 128.2 144.1 152.9 159.0

Housing Starts Single Family 26.7 26.7 23.9 28.8 36.8 41.8 46.2 50.3 76.9 87.4 89.7 91.7Housing Starts Multi-Family 9.4 12.3 21.9 27.2 35.9 37.3 45.2 46.6 51.3 56.7 63.3 67.3

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1036.2 1105.8 1223.0 1529.2 1711.9 1848.2 2052.8 2088.3 2138.9 2145.7 2126.6 2105.6Retail Sales (Billions $) 400.7 426.1 462.4 493.3 507.8 529.1 540.8 555.4 582.8 609.4 636.8 663.0


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 2. Quarterly Summary

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income and Gross State ProductPersonal Income (Annual Rate, Bil. $) 2011.0 2056.2 2077.8 2099.7 2119.4 2132.1 2161.8 2187.9 2214.9 2241.4 2267.4 2297.3

Calif. (%Ch) 5.7 6.7 6.3 6.3 5.4 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 5.1 4.9 5.0Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2403.3 2459.7 2474.3 2496.7 2513.8 2537.2 2575.4 2611.3 2645.5 2678.6 2705.4 2729.5

Calif. (%Ch) 5.7 6.4 5.2 5.8 4.6 3.1 4.1 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.0 4.5Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 2171.4 2212.2 2214.4 2229.1 2240.2 2249.2 2271.2 2288.7 2307.3 2324.7 2336.5 2345.9

Calif. (%Ch) 4.0 4.8 3.5 4.2 3.2 1.7 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.4 2.9 2.5

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)Employment 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2Labor Force 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.3CA Unemployment Rate (%) 6.7 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)Total nonfarm California 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.2Mining -2.2 -6.8 -10.7 -13.2 -13.0 -12.0 -10.5 -8.4 -3.9 -0.6 3.6 5.8Construction 6.7 7.5 8.8 8.0 6.5 5.5 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.6Manufacturing 1.7 1.7 1.6 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 Nondurable Goods 1.0 1.1 0.9 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 Durable Goods 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.0 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 0.5 1.1 1.4Trans. Warehs. & Utility 5.9 5.6 6.6 4.9 4.2 3.0 1.6 1.3 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.7Wholesale Trade 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 3.1 2.1 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.7Retail Trade 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.4 -0.2Financial Activities 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.4 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.5 2.0 0.5 0.2 -0.2Prof. and Business Services 2.9 2.6 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.5 3.5 3.4 5.0 4.5 3.8 3.6Edu & Health Services 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.4 3.5 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.4Leisure & Hospitality 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.4 2.4 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.7Information 4.1 4.8 4.7 3.3 3.7 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.2 -0.4 -4.3 -3.2Federal Gov't. 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.8State & Local Gov't. 2.3 1.8 2.5 1.9 1.9 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.3






CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 2. Quarterly Summary

2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4

Personal Income and Gross State ProductPersonal Income (Bil. $) 2332.8 2362.4 2390.4 2420.3 2452.7 2483.1 2513.6 2544.8 2579.5 2611.9 2642.4 2672.7

Calif. (%Ch) 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2764.6 2795.8 2829.7 2852.5 2886.4 2915.8 2955.0 2981.1 3014.4 3053.1 3089.1 3112.1

Calif. (%Ch) 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.4Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 2364.1 2378.7 2395.6 2403.1 2419.5 2432.5 2452.9 2462.5 2476.7 2495.9 2513.1 2519.6

Calif. (%Ch) 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.3

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)Employment 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9Labor Force 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9CA Unemployment Rate (%) 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)Total nonfarm California 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8Mining 6.1 5.6 4.4 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4Construction 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.2Manufacturing 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Nondurable Goods 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 Durable Goods 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0Trans. Warehs. & Utility 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4Wholesale Trade 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3Retail Trade -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6Financial Activities -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3Prof. and Business Services 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0Edu & Health Services 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1Leisure & Hospitality 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9Information -1.1 3.7 6.6 5.6 2.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.4 0.3Federal Gov't. -1.2 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -0.7 14.1 5.4 -0.1State & Local Gov't. 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6






CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 3. Employment Quarterly2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

California Payroll Employment (Thousands)Total Nonfarm 15862.1 15965.6 16146.9 16232.6 16302.9 16423.6 16528.3 16597.8 16666.1 16711.6 16743.9 16794.2Manufacturing 1288.9 1292.5 1296.8 1290.6 1286.5 1284.4 1287.9 1286.9 1285.5 1291.3 1298.0 1299.1 Durable Goods 807.2 810.0 813.5 811.4 807.6 805.5 807.8 806.5 804.3 809.7 816.6 817.9 Wood Products 22.1 22.3 22.7 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.5 22.7 23.1 23.7 24.2 Computer & Electronics 264.7 266.2 266.9 266.9 266.2 266.1 264.3 264.3 262.1 264.3 267.5 269.4 Transportation Equipment 115.4 115.6 117.1 116.4 116.3 115.5 116.1 116.0 115.4 114.9 114.3 113.5 Nondurables 481.7 482.5 483.3 479.2 478.9 478.9 480.1 480.4 481.2 481.5 481.4 481.3 Foods 154.5 155.3 156.0 153.0 152.5 153.6 154.9 155.4 156.3 157.0 157.6 158.1Non-Manufacturing 14573.2 14673.0 14850.1 14942.0 15016.5 15139.2 15240.4 15310.9 15380.6 15420.4 15445.9 15495.1Mining 30.4 29.5 28.3 27.7 26.5 25.9 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.8 26.3 26.8Construction 707.9 720.5 735.7 742.3 754.0 760.0 765.3 770.4 775.9 783.0 790.0 798.3Transportation, Warehouse & Util. 542.4 548.3 560.3 562.8 565.3 564.6 569.4 570.1 573.1 576.7 578.7 580.1Wholesale Trade 714.5 717.1 723.4 728.4 732.4 739.1 738.4 739.9 742.0 743.0 743.8 744.8Retail Trade 1650.9 1657.4 1671.4 1673.8 1684.5 1688.5 1696.5 1703.5 1705.2 1705.2 1703.4 1699.8Information 475.4 482.6 486.5 485.5 492.9 493.5 499.6 499.8 503.8 491.5 478.1 483.8Prof. & Bus. Services 2461.8 2477.8 2508.0 2537.6 2531.3 2564.8 2596.8 2623.6 2656.8 2679.0 2694.9 2717.2 Admin. & Support 1046.1 1048.0 1060.3 1081.1 1067.3 1074.7 1086.0 1102.6 1129.2 1148.0 1161.5 1179.6 Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1187.1 1199.6 1217.1 1225.9 1231.1 1255.6 1275.5 1285.3 1291.7 1295.3 1298.0 1302.9 Mgmt. of Co. 228.6 230.2 230.6 230.6 233.0 234.5 235.2 235.7 235.9 235.8 235.4 234.8Financial Activities 790.2 795.5 802.2 804.4 800.2 811.0 813.7 816.4 816.0 815.3 815.6 815.1 Real Estate & Rent 268.5 270.4 273.1 275.6 274.2 280.9 282.1 283.7 284.8 285.1 285.4 285.7 Finance & Insurance 521.7 525.1 529.0 528.9 526.0 530.0 531.6 532.7 531.2 530.1 530.2 529.4Education & Health Service 2413.7 2436.1 2479.7 2493.9 2514.4 2538.5 2563.2 2580.5 2593.1 2604.5 2610.6 2617.6 Education Services 342.0 343.2 350.8 349.2 358.2 365.4 371.0 373.4 370.9 370.3 368.2 367.4 Health Services 2071.7 2092.9 2128.9 2144.8 2156.1 2173.1 2192.2 2207.1 2222.2 2234.3 2242.4 2250.2Leisure & Hospitality 1802.6 1816.8 1835.1 1858.5 1877.8 1892.1 1897.0 1902.3 1910.2 1919.5 1929.0 1934.8Other Services 540.4 543.0 548.2 549.6 549.2 552.0 553.2 553.3 552.1 549.3 547.2 545.6Government 2442.8 2448.6 2471.3 2477.5 2488.0 2509.2 2522.2 2525.8 2527.0 2527.7 2528.3 2531.1 Federal Gov't. 243.2 244.1 244.8 245.5 245.7 246.4 246.9 247.1 246.7 246.5 246.0 245.1 State & Local Gov't. 2199.6 2204.5 2226.5 2232.0 2242.3 2262.9 2275.2 2278.7 2280.2 2281.2 2282.3 2286.0


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 3. Employment Quarterly2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4

California Payroll Employment (Thousands)Total Nonfarm 16844.2 16892.5 16927.7 16962.7 16998.0 17031.3 17068.1 17102.8 17139.1 17197.7 17220.1 17246.8Manufacturing 1300.2 1301.5 1304.3 1307.8 1309.9 1310.9 1312.1 1314.3 1317.1 1318.1 1320.1 1322.3 Durable Goods 818.8 819.9 822.3 825.3 827.1 827.8 828.9 831.0 833.8 835.0 837.1 839.3 Wood Products 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.1 Computer & Electronics 271.3 272.3 273.8 275.1 275.1 275.3 275.7 276.3 277.1 277.1 277.4 277.8 Transportation Equipment 112.9 112.2 111.7 111.2 110.8 110.5 110.0 109.9 109.8 109.8 109.8 109.6 Nondurables 481.4 481.6 482.0 482.6 482.8 483.0 483.2 483.2 483.3 483.1 483.0 483.0 Foods 158.9 159.5 160.0 160.6 160.9 161.3 161.7 162.0 162.6 163.1 163.6 164.2Non-Manufacturing 15544.0 15591.0 15623.4 15654.8 15688.0 15720.4 15756.0 15788.6 15822.1 15879.6 15900.0 15924.4Mining 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4Construction 806.9 815.3 823.6 829.4 834.7 840.1 845.8 850.8 854.9 859.2 865.7 869.9Transportation, Warehouse & Util. 581.0 583.6 586.0 587.0 587.6 588.4 589.2 590.1 590.8 590.8 591.4 592.2Wholesale Trade 746.2 748.3 750.7 753.1 755.7 757.8 760.1 762.0 764.7 766.5 769.1 771.6Retail Trade 1692.6 1687.5 1684.5 1683.5 1683.0 1682.5 1681.8 1680.4 1677.5 1674.6 1671.6 1669.6Information 498.3 509.8 509.6 511.1 510.2 509.0 507.5 506.3 505.2 504.1 505.7 507.9Prof. & Bus. Services 2742.5 2761.5 2771.6 2776.6 2788.4 2801.6 2816.7 2829.2 2841.2 2853.8 2870.0 2886.0 Admin. & Support 1202.1 1220.9 1230.2 1235.3 1243.2 1253.4 1264.6 1274.0 1281.3 1288.1 1296.3 1304.8 Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1306.2 1307.2 1308.5 1308.7 1313.4 1317.2 1321.7 1325.6 1330.8 1337.4 1345.9 1354.3 Mgmt. of Co. 234.3 233.4 232.9 232.5 231.9 231.0 230.4 229.6 229.1 228.3 227.7 226.9Financial Activities 812.9 812.0 811.1 810.7 810.4 809.8 808.8 807.7 807.0 805.6 805.7 805.5 Real Estate & Rent 285.6 285.6 285.8 285.9 286.1 286.1 286.1 286.2 286.4 286.3 286.4 286.5 Finance & Insurance 527.3 526.4 525.4 524.8 524.2 523.6 522.7 521.5 520.7 519.2 519.2 519.0Education & Health Service 2624.2 2630.1 2638.0 2647.8 2657.2 2662.0 2667.7 2675.6 2685.0 2688.4 2696.7 2703.8 Education Services 367.2 367.0 367.0 366.7 366.4 365.8 365.3 364.7 364.3 363.0 362.2 361.2 Health Services 2257.0 2263.1 2271.0 2281.1 2290.8 2296.2 2302.4 2310.9 2320.7 2325.4 2334.5 2342.7Leisure & Hospitality 1932.9 1933.8 1935.9 1939.5 1940.3 1944.2 1950.1 1954.7 1957.7 1961.2 1966.9 1972.1Other Services 544.4 542.9 542.2 541.6 541.3 540.2 539.4 538.6 538.5 538.1 538.1 538.0Government 2535.1 2539.0 2542.8 2547.0 2551.7 2557.1 2561.1 2565.1 2571.5 2609.3 2590.7 2579.4 Federal Gov't. 243.8 242.6 241.6 240.4 239.4 238.2 237.1 236.0 237.8 271.8 250.0 235.8 State & Local Gov't. 2291.2 2296.3 2301.2 2306.6 2312.3 2318.8 2323.9 2329.0 2333.7 2337.4 2340.8 2343.6


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 4. Employment Annual

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Payroll Employment (Thousands)Total Nonfarm 14436.0 14282.0 14436.2 14759.1 15153.3 15584.1 16051.8 16463.1 16728.9 16906.8 17050.1 17200.9Manufacturing 1283.5 1244.1 1250.2 1254.4 1256.3 1274.2 1292.2 1286.4 1293.5 1303.5 1311.8 1319.4 Durable Goods 800.7 773.2 781.0 783.7 783.4 796.1 810.5 806.9 812.1 821.6 828.7 836.3 Wood Products 19.7 19.0 19.8 19.9 19.0 18.7 18.5 18.1 18.0 17.7 17.8 17.9 Computer & Electronics 278.6 271.9 275.2 269.9 262.9 263.1 266.2 265.2 265.8 273.1 275.6 277.3 Transportation Equipment 114.6 108.7 105.1 105.2 106.2 109.9 116.1 116.0 114.5 112.0 110.3 109.7 Nondurables 482.8 470.9 469.2 470.6 472.8 478.2 481.7 479.5 481.3 481.9 483.1 483.1 Foods 147.9 147.1 149.5 150.3 150.9 152.9 154.7 154.1 157.2 159.7 161.5 163.4Non-Manufacturing 13152.5 13037.9 13186.0 13504.8 13897.0 14309.9 14759.6 15176.7 15435.5 15603.3 15738.3 15881.5Mining 26.1 26.8 28.8 30.5 30.7 31.6 29.0 25.8 26.1 27.3 27.8 28.3Construction 622.8 560.0 561.0 589.8 637.5 674.4 726.6 762.4 786.8 818.8 842.8 862.4Trans., Warehouse & Util. 474.5 466.5 474.5 487.3 502.6 523.3 553.5 567.3 577.1 584.4 588.8 591.3Wholesale Trade 645.1 643.8 657.8 675.7 694.0 710.1 720.8 737.4 743.4 749.6 758.9 768.0Retail Trade 1522.5 1518.2 1546.9 1570.1 1595.6 1628.9 1663.4 1693.2 1703.4 1687.0 1681.9 1673.3Information 441.0 428.6 430.6 435.0 449.1 462.9 482.5 496.5 489.3 507.2 508.3 505.7Prof. & Bus. Services 2063.6 2076.9 2135.1 2242.1 2341.3 2423.9 2496.3 2579.1 2687.0 2763.0 2809.0 2862.8 Admin. & Support 850.4 863.2 882.9 932.1 980.6 1025.0 1058.9 1082.6 1154.6 1222.1 1258.8 1292.6 Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1013.2 1015.2 1049.1 1100.7 1139.4 1173.3 1207.4 1261.9 1297.0 1307.7 1319.5 1342.1 Mgmt. of Co. 200.0 198.6 203.0 209.4 221.2 225.6 230.0 234.6 235.5 233.3 230.7 228.0Financial Activities 782.6 759.6 761.3 772.8 782.1 781.8 798.1 810.3 815.5 811.7 809.1 805.9 Real Estate & Rent 254.9 248.3 247.1 250.8 258.7 265.2 271.9 280.2 285.2 285.7 286.1 286.4 Finance & Insurance 527.7 511.3 514.2 522.0 523.4 516.6 526.2 530.1 530.2 526.0 523.0 519.5Education & Health Service 2106.3 2123.2 2153.8 2222.8 2297.8 2365.8 2455.8 2549.1 2606.5 2635.0 2665.6 2693.5 Education Services 286.6 291.0 306.1 315.6 325.8 337.4 346.3 367.0 369.2 367.0 365.5 362.7 Health Services 1819.8 1832.2 1847.7 1907.2 1972.0 2028.4 2109.6 2182.1 2237.3 2268.1 2300.1 2330.8Leisure & Hospitality 1503.3 1501.3 1536.0 1598.8 1676.8 1758.8 1828.3 1892.3 1923.4 1935.5 1947.3 1964.5Other Services 485.8 484.7 493.6 505.1 517.3 536.6 545.3 551.9 548.5 542.8 539.9 538.2Government 2478.9 2448.2 2406.5 2374.8 2372.2 2411.7 2460.0 2511.3 2528.5 2541.0 2558.7 2587.7 Federal Gov't. 251.1 268.3 255.3 250.6 245.5 242.4 244.4 246.5 246.1 242.1 237.7 248.8 State & Local Gov't. 2227.8 2179.9 2151.2 2124.3 2126.7 2169.3 2215.7 2264.8 2282.4 2298.8 2321.0 2338.9


CALIFORNIA CHARTS

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Personal Income(percent change from one year ago)

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Real Gross State Product(percent change from one year ago)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Unemployment Rates(percent)


CALIFORNIA CHARTS

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

16,500

17,000

17,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Total Nonfarm Employment(Thousands)

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Construction Employment (Thouands)

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)


CALIFORNIA CHARTS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Employment (Thousands)

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Financial Activities Employment (Thouands)

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Education and Health Services Employment (Thousands)


CALIFORNIA CHARTS

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Education and Health Services Employment (Thousands)

300

350

400

450

500

550

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Information Employment (Thousands)

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California State and Local Government Employment (Thousands)


CALIFORNIA CHARTS

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Housing Starts (Thousands)

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California New Passenger & Light Truck Registrations (Thousands)

MET

ROS


F r e s n o M S A

Total nonfarm employment is expected to grow by 2.9% between 2015 and 2016. Nonfarm employment in the first and second quarters of 2017 is expected to have a 3.1% and 1.8% increase followed by 1.8% and 1.5% growth in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. The leading sectors for employment growth for 2017 are predicted to be the Construction and Mining and the Professional and Business Services sectors with 7.8% and 4.8% increases, respectively. Employment is expected to increase in all sectors with the exception of the Information (-2.6%), Manufacturing (-1.4%), Federal Government (-1.1%) and Other Services (-0.2%) sectors.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOKReal personal income in Fresno is expected to grow 2.7%

between 2016 and 2017 or $31.6 billion and also 3% between 2017 and 2018 to $32.6 billion.

The Fresno MSA’s population is expected to reach approximately 998,063 in 2017 and will grow approximately 1.2% to 1.3% each year, reaching approximately 1,036,424 in 2020. An increase in the labor force between 2016 and 2017 of 2% is also expected. The labor force is projected to decrease in growth reaching 1.1% in 2020. The unemployment rate in 2017 is expected to decrease to 9.8% from 10.2% in 2015. Unemployment is estimated to return to 10.2% in 2020.

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fresno Payroll Employment (Thousands)

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fresno Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fresno Unemployment Rates(percent)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov.

Fresno Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015(California = 100)


METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO

Quarterly Outlook for FresnoSeptember 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 35.8 36.6 37.0 37.4 37.7 38.0 38.4 38.9 39.3 39.8 40.2 40.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 6.6 6.2 6.3 5.4 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.9Wages and Salaries 15.9 16.3 16.4 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.3Nonwage Income 19.9 20.3 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.0 21.2 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.2 22.5

Real Personal Income 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.7 32.0Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 6.4 6.0 5.8 4.3 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 36.8 37.5 37.9 38.2 38.4 38.6 38.9 39.2 39.6 39.9 40.3 40.6Real Per Capita Income 30.2 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.3 31.4 31.5 31.6 31.7 31.9Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 49.3 50.2 50.0 50.2 50.7 50.7 51.0 51.3 51.7 52.2 52.6 53.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 4.7 2.6 2.5 2.8 0.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.9 3.3 3.6 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Non-Farm Employment 319.9 322.3 325.8 329.9 328.9 334.1 335.2 337.3 339.1 340.3 341.3 342.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0 2.8 3.7 2.9 2.3 3.1 1.8 1.8 1.5Manufacturing 25.1 25.3 25.7 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 7.6 6.6 6.5 5.4 3.1 2.6 -0.5 -2.1 -3.0 -2.6 -0.6 0.4Nonmanufacturing 294.8 297.0 300.2 304.0 303.0 308.2 309.7 312.0 313.9 315.0 315.9 317.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.9 2.8 3.8 3.2 2.6 3.6 2.2 2.0 1.6Construction & Mining 14.9 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 7.0 10.1 7.8 3.7 1.9 1.9 4.2 7.4 10.5 8.5 6.9 5.3Trade, Trans, & Utilities 62.5 62.6 63.6 65.0 65.5 66.0 65.3 65.5 65.7 65.9 66.0 66.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 0.9 2.8 4.2 4.9 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7Wholesale Trade 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5Retail Trade 37.0 37.0 37.7 38.3 38.5 38.8 38.5 38.7 38.7 38.8 38.8 38.7Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8

Information 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 3.4 1.0 -0.8 -1.3 -1.9 -2.5 -2.0 -0.1 -2.8 -4.2 -3.1

Financial Activities 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 2.0 3.5 1.9 3.2 4.5 3.5 3.6 2.5 0.6 0.3 0.1

Prof & Business Services 31.8 31.7 31.0 31.2 31.0 31.5 31.8 32.2 32.6 33.0 33.2 33.7Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 4.4 -1.5 -2.0 -2.4 -0.8 2.5 3.3 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.6

Educ & Health Services 58.8 59.6 61.1 62.1 61.7 62.4 63.4 64.2 64.6 65.0 65.2 65.4Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 5.0 7.0 7.7 5.0 4.8 3.7 3.4 4.7 4.1 2.8 2.0

Leisure & Hospitality 31.2 31.3 31.5 31.7 30.5 31.8 32.2 32.6 32.9 33.1 33.3 33.4Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.6 -2.3 1.3 2.1 2.8 8.0 4.3 3.4 2.7

Other Services 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.1 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.5 1.7 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2

Federal Government 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 -3.2 -1.5 -1.8 0.3 3.9 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -2.9 -0.3 -0.8

State & Local Government 58.0 58.6 59.3 60.7 61.0 62.0 62.4 62.6 62.7 62.7 62.8 62.9Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 4.5 4.3 5.7 5.1 5.8 5.2 3.0 2.8 1.1 0.6 0.6

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 972.4 974.9 977.4 979.9 982.4 985.0 987.6 990.4 993.3 996.4 999.6 1002.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3Labor Force (Ths.) 443.6 444.1 442.8 446.0 444.9 447.9 451.6 453.7 456.0 457.6 459.4 461.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.8 2.0 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.6Unemployment Rate (%) 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.9 9.2 9.3 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 2713 2824 2340 2027 2378 2529 2319 2612 2947 3270 3326 3418

Single-Family 2518 2481 2241 1926 2065 2384 2177 2399 2680 2902 2884 2884Multifamily 196 343 99 101 313 145 142 213 267 368 441 534

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.









Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0Nonmanufacturing 317.7 318.4 319.2 320.1 321.0 321.7 322.6 323.4 324.2 326.2 326.2 326.4



Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3Wholesale Trade 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1Retail Trade 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.4Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.3

Information 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 4.0 7.1 5.9 2.9 0.0 -0.8 -0.8 -1.3 -0.8 0.3 0.5

Financial Activities 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1

Prof & Business Services 34.1 34.3 34.5 34.7 34.9 35.1 35.3 35.4 35.6 35.9 36.1 36.4Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.0 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6


Leisure & Hospitality 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.5 33.5 33.6 33.6 33.6 33.6Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 0.8 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1

Other Services 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1

Federal Government 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.3 10.6 9.7 9.2Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -1.6 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -0.6 14.3 5.4 -0.3









Annual Outlook for FresnoSeptember 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 28.1 29.1 30.9 32.4 33.4 34.6 36.7 38.2 40.0 42.0 44.2 46.4





Pct Chg Year Ago -5.0 -2.3 0.3 0.8 2.9 3.4 3.8 2.9 2.1 1.1 1.0 1.1Manufacturing 25.1 24.1 23.8 23.7 23.1 23.9 25.5 25.7 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.0

Pct Chg Year Ago -7.4 -3.7 -1.4 -0.5 -2.5 3.7 6.5 0.8 -1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9Nonmanufacturing 272.5 266.5 267.6 269.9 279.1 288.7 299.0 308.2 315.5 318.9 322.2 325.7

Pct Chg Year Ago -4.8 -2.2 0.4 0.9 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.1 2.4 1.1 1.0 1.1Construction & Mining 13.9 12.2 11.7 12.4 13.4 14.1 15.2 15.7 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -22.8 -11.9 -3.9 5.7 8.2 5.5 7.2 3.8 7.8 1.7 2.5 2.2Trade, Trans, & Utilities 55.6 55.2 57.4 58.1 60.7 61.9 63.4 65.6 65.9 66.0 66.5 66.8

Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0 -0.8 4.0 1.3 4.4 2.1 2.4 3.4 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.4Wholesale Trade 11.9 11.5 12.5 12.8 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.1Retail Trade 33.1 32.8 33.4 33.8 35.1 36.3 37.5 38.6 38.7 38.5 38.5 38.5Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 10.6 10.8 11.4 11.6 12.0 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.1 13.2

Information 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9Pct Chg Year Ago -11.7 -14.1 -1.5 8.1 0.2 1.5 1.6 -1.9 -2.6 4.0 0.3 -0.3

Financial Activities 13.8 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.8 13.0 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4 -3.1 -3.1 -0.9 0.3 -1.0 2.1 3.7 0.9 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1

Prof & Business Services 28.2 26.7 27.0 26.8 29.0 31.1 31.4 31.6 33.1 34.4 35.2 36.0Pct Chg Year Ago -8.1 -5.0 1.0 -0.5 8.2 7.0 1.2 0.6 4.8 3.8 2.3 2.3


Leisure & Hospitality 26.6 26.8 27.1 28.0 29.0 30.6 31.4 31.7 33.2 33.4 33.5 33.6Pct Chg Year Ago -4.7 0.7 1.2 3.3 3.4 5.5 2.8 1.0 4.6 0.6 0.2 0.4

Other Services 10.2 10.0 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.4Pct Chg Year Ago -4.4 -1.8 1.5 4.8 2.9 2.7 2.4 0.9 -0.2 -0.9 -0.4 -0.2

Federal Government 9.8 10.7 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.7Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 8.8 -4.8 0.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.1 1.1 -1.1 -1.6 -1.8 4.7

State & Local Government 58.9 56.4 55.6 53.9 54.2 56.5 59.2 62.0 62.8 63.4 64.1 64.7Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 -4.3 -1.4 -3.0 0.6 4.1 4.8 4.8 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.9



Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.4 0.9 -0.6 -0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.1Unemployment Rate (%) 14.7 16.7 16.5 15.1 13.2 11.6 10.2 9.5 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.2Total Housing Starts 2266 2179 1893 1900 2534 2080 2476 2460 3240 3675 3980 4167





M e r c e d M S A

Total nonfarm employment is expected to grow 1.8% between 2016 and 2017 with the most growth seen in the first quarter of 2017 with 2.6% growth. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2016 are in the Financial Activities (9.6%), Federal Government (7.2%), and State & Local Government (5.7%) sectors. The only sector forecasted to experience declining rates in 2016 is Professional & Business Services (3.7%). The Manufacturing, Information, and Other Services sectors are expected to see declining rates in 2017.

Real personal income in the Merced MSA is expected to increase to $8 billion in 2016, a 3% increase from 2015’s

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

real personal income of $7.7 billion. An increase in real personal income is expected to continue each year until it reaches $9 billion in 2020.

The population in Merced is expected to reach approximately 275,400 in 2017. The labor force is expected to grow 0.4% between 2015 and 2016. The unemployment rate for the Merced MSA is forecasted to be 10.6% in 2016, down from 11.4% in 2015. Unemployment will decline each year, reaching 9.4% in 2020. In addition, housing starts will grow each year with an expected 917 in 2017 and an estimated 1,151 by 2020.

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Merced Payroll Employment (Thousands)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Merced Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Merced Unemployment Rates(percent)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


Merced Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015(California = 100)


METRO SUMMARY - MERCED

Quarterly Outlook for MercedSeptember 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5






Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.2 1.5 8.3 14.7 6.5 -1.1 -6.3 -12.9 -8.3 -4.9 -1.8Nonmanufacturing 53.2 53.2 53.8 53.3 53.5 54.7 55.7 56.2 56.5 56.8 57.0 57.2



Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 0.0 0.8 -1.8 -2.4 -0.1 0.1 2.3 2.4 1.0 1.0 0.6Wholesale Trade 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5Retail Trade 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3

Information 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Pct Chg Year Ago -24.9 -25.3 -25.2 -25.6 -0.8 0.2 2.8 5.2 -0.4 -2.3 -4.5 -2.8

Financial Activities 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 1.9 -0.3 -7.0 -0.7 6.3 12.9 19.6 16.7 6.6 0.0 -1.1

Prof & Business Services 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -6.2 -0.3 -0.8 -7.8 -3.4 -4.0 0.4 5.5 5.5 5.0 4.6


Leisure & Hospitality 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.0 -1.5 0.5 1.7 4.4 6.8 5.5 5.4 3.2 1.4 1.4

Other Services 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -0.3 7.4 6.9 4.3 2.7 -1.3 -1.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.7

Federal Government 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8Pct Chg Year Ago -8.5 4.3 -0.2 8.3 13.4 4.8 5.1 5.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 -0.1




Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6Unemployment Rate (%) 11.7 11.5 11.1 11.2 10.5 10.5 10.8 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.2Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 114 58 119 83 169 164 763 780 756 865 949 1099





Quarterly Outlook for MercedSeptember 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3










Information 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 4.4 7.2 6.3 2.8 0.4 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 1.1

Financial Activities 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -0.6 -1.1 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0



Leisure & Hospitality 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4

Other Services 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 0.4 15.2 6.3 0.6









Annual Outlook for MercedSeptember 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 6.7 7.1 7.9 8.1 8.6 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.9 11.5 12.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 5.3 10.7 2.6 7.2 4.5 5.3 4.2 4.5 5.3 5.5 5.5Wages and Salaries 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9Nonwage Income 4.2 4.6 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.2

Real Personal Income 6.0 6.2 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.0Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 2.8 8.3 1.1 5.9 3.3 5.0 3.0 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.3


Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 -1.1 -0.8 6.1 1.8 1.9 2.5 2.5 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Non-Farm Employment 57.6 58.4 58.6 59.2 60.5 62.1 63.3 65.2 66.4 67.3 68.4 69.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 1.4 0.4 1.1 2.1 2.7 1.9 3.1 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.6Manufacturing 8.6 8.3 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.6 9.9 10.2 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8

Pct Chg Year Ago -7.9 -3.0 -1.1 2.2 3.9 10.5 2.6 3.4 -6.9 1.0 0.9 1.0Nonmanufacturing 49.0 50.1 50.4 50.8 51.7 52.4 53.4 55.0 56.9 57.8 58.7 59.7

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 2.2 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.7 3.1 3.4 1.5 1.7 1.7Construction & Mining 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -32.0 -2.4 -1.6 4.1 -0.2 7.9 10.4 4.2 13.0 5.1 3.5 2.7Trade, Trans, & Utilities 11.5 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 -1.0 3.5 2.4 0.6 -0.8 0.2 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.7 0.5Wholesale Trade 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5Retail Trade 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3

Information 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Pct Chg Year Ago -5.9 1.5 -29.6 -7.3 0.2 0.1 -25.2 1.8 -2.5 4.3 0.8 0.3

Financial Activities 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8Pct Chg Year Ago -12.4 0.0 -3.7 0.6 -3.1 4.6 -1.3 9.6 5.5 -0.8 -0.1 -0.1

Prof & Business Services 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1Pct Chg Year Ago -7.7 3.8 4.6 -2.0 -0.4 -11.5 -2.2 -3.7 5.2 3.4 2.3 2.9


Leisure & Hospitality 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9Pct Chg Year Ago -6.3 -3.5 2.6 2.4 5.6 7.3 0.7 4.6 2.8 0.2 0.8 1.3

Other Services 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4Pct Chg Year Ago -6.9 0.0 1.3 0.7 -1.2 -2.9 2.9 1.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.3

Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 5.2 -5.8 -5.2 -3.2 6.1 1.0 7.2 0.5 -0.9 -1.0 5.6

State & Local Government 15.0 15.9 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.8 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.9Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 5.4 -1.3 0.3 1.2 3.0 3.3 5.7 3.6 2.3 2.6 2.4



Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 3.2 1.1 0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.2Unemployment Rate (%) 16.6 17.9 17.6 16.3 14.5 12.8 11.4 10.6 10.3 9.9 9.7 9.4Total Housing Starts 120 119 126 180 165 170 93 469 917 1211 1237 1263




M o d e s t o M S A

Total nonfarm employment is expected to grow 3.3% between 2016 and 2017 with the highest growth rate seen in fourth quarter at 4.6%. Job growth in the third quarter of 2016 is estimated at 3.2% growth and 2.7% growth in the fourth quarter. The leading sectors for employment growth between 2015 and 2016 are in the Leisure & Hospitality (6%); Construction and Mining (5.7%); and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (4.1%) sectors. Meanwhile, a decline is expected in the Information (-3.2%) sector. Between 2016 and 2017 declining rates are expected in the Information (-4.7%), Manufacturing (-2.1%), and Other Services (-0.9%) sectors.

Real personal income is expected to increase 3.5% in 2016 to $17.3 billion, up from $16.7 billion the previous year.

Real personal income is expected to grow approximately between 2.5% and 3.1% between 2017 and 2020. The average annual wage is estimated to be $50,600 in 2016 and will continue to grow each year reaching $58,900 in 2020.

The population in the Modesto MSA is expected to reach 545,700 in 2016 and will grow each year reaching 571,200 in 2020. Modesto’s labor force is expected to grow at a rate of 1.3% for 2016, up from declines in the previous three years. Unemployment is estimated to decline to 8.6% in 2016 from 9.5% in 2015 but will rise between 2018 and 2020, reaching approximately 9.6% in 2020. Housing starts are expected to see increases each year between 2016 and 2020.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Modesto Payroll Employment (Thousands)

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Modesto Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Modesto Unemployment Rates(percent)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


Modesto Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015(California = 100)


METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO

Quarterly Outlook for ModestoSeptember 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 20.0 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.8






Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.2 0.1 -2.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.6 -2.3 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8Nonmanufacturing 143.2 144.0 145.7 146.9 148.5 150.1 150.7 151.0 151.5 151.9 152.1 152.4




Information 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 3.5 -3.5 -0.5 -0.2 -6.5 -2.4 -3.6 -4.0 -3.5 -6.5 -4.9

Financial Activities 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 -3.2 -1.3 -0.5 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 -0.3


Educ & Health Services 30.4 30.6 31.1 31.3 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.7Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.9 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.2 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.1

Leisure & Hospitality 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.2Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 3.6 5.4 6.0 7.5 7.1 5.5 3.8 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.3

Other Services 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 -0.7 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.7 -1.5 -1.7

Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 -0.2 -0.7

State & Local Government 25.8 25.7 25.9 25.6 25.7 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 1.6 3.1 -0.9 -0.3 3.3 3.7 5.5 5.2 1.9 1.0 0.6








Quarterly Outlook for ModestoSeptember 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 23.1 23.4 23.6 23.9 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.5









Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1Wholesale Trade 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5Retail Trade 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.1Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.2

Information 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 2.7 5.7 5.3 2.0 -0.5 -0.8 -1.6 -1.2 -1.5 -0.6 0.1

Financial Activities 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0




Other Services 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -1.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.1










Annual Outlook for ModestoSeptember 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 15.5 16.0 16.8 17.8 18.4 19.3 20.5 21.4 22.4 23.5 24.7 26.0





Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 -0.3 -0.5 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 3.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0Manufacturing 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.1 21.4 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -7.7 -0.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.8 -0.4 1.2 -2.1 0.6 0.7 0.9Nonmanufacturing 130.6 130.3 129.5 132.2 136.2 140.5 144.9 150.1 152.0 153.3 154.9 156.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -5.4 -0.2 -0.6 2.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.6 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.1Construction & Mining 6.6 5.9 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.5 8.4 8.9 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.3


Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 0.7 1.8 4.0 3.1 1.1 3.0 4.1 0.7 -0.1 0.3 0.2Wholesale Trade 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5Retail Trade 19.5 19.5 19.9 20.8 21.5 21.8 22.5 23.5 23.5 23.3 23.2 23.1Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 5.7 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2

Information 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9Pct Chg Year Ago -30.1 -4.5 -8.3 -13.6 -4.9 2.7 -0.1 -3.2 -4.7 2.7 -0.2 -0.8

Financial Activities 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2Pct Chg Year Ago -7.6 -2.6 -0.9 0.3 0.0 -2.6 -2.2 2.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2

Prof & Business Services 13.2 12.5 12.2 12.8 13.4 13.8 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.1Pct Chg Year Ago -7.7 -5.2 -2.0 4.7 4.3 3.0 2.1 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.0 2.2


Leisure & Hospitality 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.9 15.8 16.9 17.8 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.5Pct Chg Year Ago -5.6 -0.6 -0.7 3.1 5.8 7.5 5.0 6.0 1.5 0.4 0.6 1.1

Other Services 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2Pct Chg Year Ago -10.2 -2.7 -4.0 0.2 2.9 4.9 1.1 1.5 -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -0.2

Federal Government 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 12.8 -9.0 -0.9 -6.6 -3.8 -0.2 0.4 0.1 -1.5 -1.7 4.9

State & Local Government 24.9 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.7 25.3 25.7 26.5 27.1 27.3 27.7 28.0Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2 1.3 -1.8 -1.1 0.7 2.6 1.6 3.0 2.2 1.0 1.3 1.1



Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 3.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2Unemployment Rate (%) 15.5 16.9 16.5 14.9 12.9 11.1 9.5 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.5 9.6Total Housing Starts 376 270 212 320 311 392 104 400 910 1747 2167 2284




O a k l a n d M S A

Nonfarm employment in the Oakland MSA is expected to increase 2.5% between 2015 and 2016 and 1.8% between 2016 and 2017. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Construction and Mining and Professional & Business Services sectors with 4.0% and 3.9% growth, respectively. Meanwhile, declines are expected in the Information (-2.1%), Federal Government (-0.5%), and Other Services (-0.4%). These sectors, with the exception of the Information sector, are expected to continue to experience declines or no growth through 2019.

Real personal income for 2017 is expected to increase to $148.3 billion, a 2.8% increase from 2016. Real personal income is expected to grow over 3% each year through 2020.

The Oakland MSA population is expected grow to 2,847,682 in 2017, a growth of 1.3% between 2016 and 2017; the population is expected to reach approximately 2,956,500 by 2020. Unemployment in Oakland is expected to decrease to 4.4% in 2016, down from 4.9% in 2015. The labor force is expected to growth 1.2% between 2015 and 2016. Housing starts reach 8,962 in 2017 and 11,411 in 2020.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

900

925

950

975

1000

1025

1050

1075

1100

1125

1150

1175

1200

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Oakland Payroll Employment (Thousands)

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Oakland Real Personal Income(Percent change from one year ago)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Oakland Unemployment Rates(percent)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


Oakland Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015(California = 100)


METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND

Quarterly Outlook for OaklandSeptember 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 168.1 171.5 173.2 175.1 176.6 177.6 179.9 182.2 184.3 186.5 188.7 191.2


Real Personal Income* 137.8 139.8 140.7 142.0 143.2 143.3 144.8 145.8 146.8 147.7 148.8 150.1Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 6.9 6.0 5.4 3.9 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.5 3.1 2.8 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 61.0 62.0 62.4 62.9 63.2 63.3 63.9 64.5 65.0 65.6 66.2 66.8Real Per Capita Income* 50.0 50.6 50.7 51.0 51.2 51.1 51.4 51.6 51.8 52.0 52.2 52.5Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 70.0 71.2 70.7 71.2 71.8 71.8 72.4 73.0 73.7 74.4 75.2 76.0







Information 22.0 22.2 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.0 23.1 22.9 23.1 22.6 22.0 22.2Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.9 6.3 5.5 4.3 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.9 -1.7 -4.7 -3.1

Financial Activities 49.6 49.7 49.8 49.0 49.2 49.7 49.9 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.1 50.1Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 1.3 1.2 -1.1 -0.9 0.0 0.1 2.2 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.0





Federal Government 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -1.1









Quarterly Outlook for OaklandSeptember 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 193.9 196.3 198.7 201.3 203.9 206.6 209.3 212.2 215.1 217.9 220.7 223.4










Information 22.9 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.4Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 3.9 6.8 5.8 2.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2 0.5

Financial Activities 49.9 49.9 49.9 49.9 49.9 49.9 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.7 49.8 49.8Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0




Other Services 38.1 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0










Annual Outlook for OaklandSeptember 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 123.5 126.5 136.7 146.7 151.9 161.5 172.0 179.1 187.7 197.5 208.0 219.3


Real Personal Income* 109.7 109.7 116.0 122.6 125.4 131.8 140.1 144.3 148.3 153.1 157.9 163.0Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 0.0 5.8 5.7 2.3 5.1 6.3 3.0 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.2




Pct Chg Year Ago -11.1 -3.5 1.5 0.2 0.2 3.4 4.6 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.7Nonmanufacturing 908.4 891.0 898.9 926.7 956.2 979.7 1008.0 1033.3 1052.6 1065.7 1076.6 1087.4


Pct Chg Year Ago -17.2 -11.1 0.1 8.9 8.3 3.7 6.4 7.2 4.0 3.8 2.7 2.1Trade, Trans, & Utilities 179.2 173.7 175.7 180.7 186.4 191.7 198.8 203.9 205.8 205.8 206.6 207.1


Information 25.3 23.6 22.6 22.1 21.5 21.3 22.4 23.0 22.5 23.3 23.4 23.3Pct Chg Year Ago -9.2 -6.6 -4.3 -2.3 -2.8 -0.9 5.3 2.6 -2.1 3.9 0.3 -0.4

Financial Activities 48.0 48.2 47.8 48.8 49.7 49.3 49.5 49.7 50.0 49.9 49.8 49.8Pct Chg Year Ago -8.8 0.4 -0.9 2.2 1.8 -0.7 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2

Prof & Business Services 151.3 152.2 157.6 166.5 173.4 178.8 182.9 184.7 191.8 197.6 201.4 205.8Pct Chg Year Ago -7.5 0.7 3.5 5.7 4.2 3.1 2.3 1.0 3.9 3.0 1.9 2.2



Other Services 34.7 35.0 35.7 36.4 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 38.3 38.0 37.8 37.8Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0 0.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 -0.4 -0.9 -0.4 -0.2

Federal Government 16.7 15.7 14.6 14.2 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.4 13.2 13.7Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -5.8 -7.0 -2.6 -3.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -1.9 -2.1 4.3




Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 -0.1 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.2 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.2Unemployment Rate (%) 10.1 10.9 10.2 8.8 7.3 5.9 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9Total Housing Starts 2829 3159 3081 4463 4610 5292 7525 7970 8962 9346 10531 11411




S a c r a m e n t o M S A

Total nonfarm employment in the Sacramento MSA is expected to increase 2.4% between 2015 and 2016 and will grow each year between 1.2-1.9% through 2020. This percent change is lower than the previous few years where growth was between 2% and 3% between 2012 and 2015. The leading sectors for employment growth in 2016 are Construction (9.3%), Education & Health Services (3.7%), and Federal Government (2.9%), while a decline of -2.1% is expected in the Information sector. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience declines between 2018 and 2019.

Real personal income is forecasted to grow to $93.3

billion in 2016, an increase of 2.8% from the previous year, and progressive growth is expected in each quarter of 2016. Real personal income will grow approximately between 2.9% and 3.5% in the following years through 2020.

The population of the Sacramento MSA is expected to be 2,307,936 in 2016, an increase of 1.3% from 2015. The labor force is calculated to also experience a 1.2% increase in 2016 and will grow between 1.4% and 1.5% in the following years through 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to be at approximately 5.4% in 2016 and will stay between 5.6% and 6% in the following years through 2020.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sacramento Payroll Employment (Thousands)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sacramento Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sacramento Unemployment Rate(percent)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


Sacramento Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015(California = 100)


METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO

Quarterly Outlook for SacramentoSeptember 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 108.8 111.1 112.7 113.3 114.6 114.8 116.3 117.8 119.2 120.7 122.2 123.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 6.3 6.3 5.9 5.3 3.3 3.2 3.9 4.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 Wages and Salaries 54.7 56.0 56.7 56.9 57.7 57.8 58.7 59.5 60.3 61.1 61.9 62.8 Nonwage Income 54.1 55.1 56.0 56.4 56.8 57.0 57.6 58.3 58.9 59.6 60.3 61.1Real Personal Income (09$) 89.2 90.5 91.5 91.9 92.9 92.6 93.6 94.2 94.9 95.6 96.4 97.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.1 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.2 3.3 3.0 3.2Per Capita Income (Ths.) 48.0 48.9 49.4 49.5 49.9 49.8 50.3 50.8 51.2 51.7 52.1 52.6Real Per Capita Income (09$) 39.3 39.8 40.1 40.2 40.4 40.2 40.5 40.6 40.8 40.9 41.1 41.3Average Annual Wage (Ths) 60.2 61.2 61.1 61.3 61.8 61.6 62.0 62.5 63.1 63.7 64.4 65.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 4.7 3.1 2.8 2.7 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.0 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Non-Farm Employment 905.3 911.0 922.9 925.1 930.8 933.4 942.3 946.7 951.4 955.1 957.7 961.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.5Manufacturing 36.1 36.4 36.4 36.3 36.7 36.6 37.0 37.2 37.3 37.5 37.8 37.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.8 1.9 1.1 1.8 0.7 1.6 2.3 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.8Nonmanufacturing 869.2 874.7 886.5 888.8 894.1 896.8 905.4 909.5 914.1 917.6 919.9 923.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.6 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.5 Construction & Mining 48.4 49.6 50.8 52.9 53.7 54.8 55.9 55.9 56.1 56.5 57.2 57.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.4 8.6 10.1 13.3 11.1 10.4 9.9 5.7 4.5 3.2 2.3 3.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 145.2 146.5 147.7 147.6 147.3 147.8 149.7 150.7 151.3 151.7 152.0 152.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 2.5 2.9 2.5 1.5 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.6 1.5 0.9 Wholesale Trade 24.3 24.5 24.9 24.8 25.0 24.7 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.5 Retail Trade 96.6 97.5 98.0 97.9 97.7 98.4 100.0 100.5 100.6 100.6 100.5 100.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 24.3 24.4 24.8 24.9 24.7 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.4 25.8 26.1 26.4 Information 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.5 13.1 13.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.1 1.9 0.3 -1.3 -2.0 -2.3 -2.7 -1.8 -3.2 -5.1 -3.3 Financial Activities 50.3 50.8 51.1 51.5 51.7 51.9 52.2 52.4 52.4 52.4 52.5 52.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 4.5 4.8 4.0 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 Prof & Business Services 118.7 118.9 121.1 120.0 120.9 121.7 123.9 125.8 127.9 129.6 130.3 131.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.4 2.2 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.3 4.8 5.8 6.4 5.2 4.5 Educ & Health Services 137.7 139.3 141.7 142.4 144.5 143.7 146.3 147.3 148.1 148.9 149.4 149.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 4.3 5.0 4.6 4.9 3.2 3.2 3.4 2.5 3.6 2.1 1.8 Leisure & Hospitality 93.9 94.3 95.4 95.9 96.8 97.0 97.8 98.6 99.0 99.5 100.0 100.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.2 1.8 Other Services 30.6 30.7 31.1 30.7 31.1 31.4 31.5 31.5 31.5 31.4 31.3 31.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 1.8 2.4 0.6 1.7 2.3 1.3 2.7 1.4 -0.1 -0.6 -0.9 Federal Government 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.3 3.2 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 -0.4 State & Local Government 216.7 216.7 219.7 219.8 220.1 220.5 220.1 219.5 219.8 219.9 220.1 220.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 1.1 2.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2266.9 2274.2 2281.6 2289.1 2296.6 2304.1 2311.7 2319.4 2327.3 2335.4 2343.7 2352.2







Quarterly Outlook for SacramentoSeptember 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 125.7 127.3 129.0 130.6 132.5 134.3 136.0 137.8 139.8 141.7 143.4 145.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 Wages and Salaries 63.6 64.5 65.3 66.1 66.9 67.8 68.6 69.4 70.4 71.2 72.1 72.9 Nonwage Income 62.1 62.9 63.7 64.6 65.6 66.5 67.4 68.3 69.5 70.5 71.3 72.1Real Personal Income (09$) 98.2 99.0 99.7 100.5 101.4 102.2 103.0 103.8 104.8 105.6 106.3 107.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1Per Capita Income (Ths.) 53.3 53.7 54.2 54.7 55.3 55.8 56.3 56.9 57.5 58.1 58.6 59.0Real Per Capita Income (09$) 41.6 41.8 41.9 42.1 42.3 42.5 42.7 42.8 43.1 43.3 43.4 43.5Average Annual Wage (Ths) 65.7 66.3 67.0 67.6 68.3 68.9 69.5 70.2 70.9 71.4 72.2 72.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.8 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Non-Farm Employment 964.4 967.6 970.5 973.2 976.2 979.2 982.4 985.5 988.5 992.9 995.1 997.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2Manufacturing 37.9 38.0 38.1 38.2 38.3 38.4 38.4 38.5 38.6 38.7 38.8 38.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0Nonmanufacturing 926.5 929.7 932.5 935.0 937.9 940.9 943.9 946.9 949.9 954.2 956.3 958.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 Construction & Mining 58.6 59.3 60.0 60.5 61.0 61.5 62.0 62.4 62.8 63.2 63.8 64.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.9 5.0 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 152.0 152.0 152.0 152.2 152.3 152.6 152.9 153.1 153.2 153.3 153.4 153.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 Wholesale Trade 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 Retail Trade 99.9 99.6 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.7 99.6 99.6 99.5 99.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 Information 13.7 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 3.9 7.5 6.3 3.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 0.4 1.0 Financial Activities 52.4 52.4 52.4 52.5 52.5 52.5 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 Prof & Business Services 132.7 133.7 134.3 134.6 135.3 136.0 136.9 137.6 138.3 139.1 140.0 140.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 Educ & Health Services 150.4 151.0 151.6 152.3 153.0 153.5 154.0 154.7 155.4 155.8 156.4 157.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 Leisure & Hospitality 100.2 100.4 100.5 100.8 100.9 101.1 101.5 101.8 102.0 102.2 102.6 102.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Other Services 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.3 31.3 31.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 Federal Government 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 15.8 14.6 13.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3 -0.1 14.5 5.8 0.2 State & Local Government 221.2 221.8 222.4 223.0 223.7 224.5 225.1 225.8 226.5 227.0 227.5 227.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2360.8 2369.6 2378.4 2387.2 2396.1 2405.0 2413.9 2422.9 2431.7 2440.5 2449.4 2458.4







Annual Outlook for SacramentoSeptember 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 85.8 87.5 92.6 98.0 100.9 105.2 111.5 115.8 121.5 128.2 135.1 142.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 2.1 5.8 5.8 3.0 4.2 6.0 3.9 4.9 5.5 5.4 5.4 Wages and Salaries 45.3 44.9 46.3 48.6 50.2 52.6 56.1 58.4 61.5 64.9 68.2 71.7 Nonwage Income 40.5 42.6 46.3 49.4 50.8 52.6 55.4 57.4 60.0 63.3 67.0 70.8Real Personal Income (09$) 76.2 75.9 78.6 81.9 83.3 85.8 90.8 93.3 96.0 99.3 102.6 105.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -0.3 3.5 4.2 1.8 3.0 5.8 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.3 3.2Per Capita Income (Ths.) 40.2 40.6 42.5 44.6 45.4 46.8 48.9 50.2 51.9 54.0 56.1 58.3Real Per Capita Income (09$) 35.7 35.2 36.1 37.3 37.5 38.2 39.9 40.4 41.0 41.8 42.6 43.3Average Annual Wage (Ths) 52.8 53.7 55.5 57.1 57.4 58.8 60.9 62.0 64.0 66.7 69.2 71.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.9 0.5 2.5 3.5 1.7 3.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Non-Farm Employment 853.6 831.2 829.0 846.7 869.2 889.5 916.1 938.3 956.3 969.0 980.8 993.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.4 -2.6 -0.3 2.1 2.7 2.3 3.0 2.4 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.3Manufacturing 34.4 32.8 33.2 33.9 34.1 35.4 36.3 36.9 37.6 38.0 38.4 38.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.1 -4.7 1.3 2.0 0.7 3.6 2.6 1.6 2.1 1.1 1.0 1.0Nonmanufacturing 819.1 798.4 795.8 812.8 835.0 854.1 879.8 901.5 918.7 930.9 942.4 954.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.2 -2.5 -0.3 2.1 2.7 2.3 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.3 Construction & Mining 44.1 38.8 37.4 38.8 43.7 45.9 50.4 55.1 56.9 59.6 61.7 63.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -22.6 -11.6 -3.6 3.8 12.6 5.1 9.8 9.3 3.4 4.7 3.6 2.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 134.9 132.6 134.2 138.9 141.7 143.3 146.7 148.9 151.8 152.1 152.7 153.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.0 -1.7 1.2 3.6 2.0 1.2 2.4 1.5 1.9 0.2 0.4 0.4 Wholesale Trade 24.1 22.8 23.7 25.2 25.0 24.5 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.5 Retail Trade 87.6 88.0 89.4 91.8 93.8 95.3 97.5 99.1 100.5 99.6 99.5 99.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 23.2 21.7 21.1 21.9 22.9 23.6 24.6 24.8 25.9 26.8 27.1 27.3 Information 18.3 17.2 16.3 15.6 14.8 13.9 14.2 13.9 13.4 14.0 14.1 14.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 -6.0 -5.0 -4.6 -5.2 -6.0 2.2 -2.1 -3.3 4.2 0.8 0.1 Financial Activities 52.9 48.3 46.7 48.2 49.4 48.9 50.9 52.0 52.5 52.4 52.5 52.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.5 -8.6 -3.4 3.2 2.6 -1.0 4.2 2.2 0.8 -0.1 0.2 0.1 Prof & Business Services 101.2 102.3 104.4 111.1 114.6 118.2 119.6 123.1 129.8 133.8 136.5 139.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.1 1.1 2.1 6.4 3.2 3.1 1.2 2.9 5.5 3.1 2.0 2.3 Educ & Health Services 121.7 120.7 122.5 125.6 130.7 134.3 140.3 145.4 149.0 151.3 153.8 156.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 -0.9 1.5 2.6 4.0 2.8 4.5 3.7 2.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 Leisure & Hospitality 81.9 80.2 81.7 84.5 88.7 91.8 94.9 97.5 99.7 100.5 101.3 102.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.6 -2.0 1.9 3.4 5.0 3.4 3.4 2.8 2.2 0.8 0.8 1.1 Other Services 28.8 28.1 28.0 28.6 29.0 30.2 30.7 31.4 31.4 31.2 31.2 31.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6 -2.4 -0.5 1.9 1.6 4.1 1.8 2.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.3 Federal Government 13.3 14.6 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.2 14.0 13.8 14.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.2 10.6 -4.1 -1.9 -1.9 0.5 1.4 2.9 0.4 -1.2 -1.4 5.1 State & Local Government 222.0 215.6 210.6 207.7 209.1 214.2 218.2 220.1 220.1 222.1 224.8 227.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -2.9 -2.3 -1.4 0.6 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.0 0.9 1.2 1.0 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) 2135.3 2157.0 2177.9 2198.3 2221.3 2248.7 2277.9 2307.9 2339.6 2374.0 2409.5 2445.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5Labor Force (Ths) 1051.4 1049.6 1045.1 1049.9 1048.9 1050.8 1060.1 1072.9 1098.9 1116.4 1134.3 1150.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.9 1.2 2.4 1.6 1.6 1.4Unemployment Rate (%) 10.9 12.3 11.8 10.3 8.7 7.1 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0Total Housing Starts 2925 2563 2814 3424 4140 4370 6458 7173 10153 13116 13943 14158 Single-Family 2721 2247 2071 2944 3559 4005 5697 6077 8096 10208 10580 10843 Multifamily 204 316 744 480 581 365 760 1096 2057 2908 3363 3315



S a n F r a n c i s c o M S A

Nonfarm employment is expected to grow by 3.4% between 2015 and 2016 and 2.3% between 2016 and 2017. In the first quarter of 2017, job growth in nonfarm employment is expected to be 2.7%. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Professional & Business Services (5.0%); Construction and Mining (4.0%); and Education & Health Services (2.6%) sectors. Meanwhile, declines are expected in the Federal Government (-0.8%) and Other Services (-0.3%) sectors. No growth is expected for the Manufacturing sector in 2017.

Real personal income is expected to grow 4.0% between 2015 and 2016 and 4.1% between 2016 and 2017,

reaching $156.1 billion in 2020. Per capita income is expected to increase each year and will reach an estimated $122,600 in 2020.

The San Francisco MSA population is expected to reach approximately 1,669,600 in 2017, an increase of 1.1% from the previous year. The labor force is expected to grow 1.9% between 2015 and 2016 as well as 2.2% between 2016 and 2017; the labor force is expected to have declining rates reaching 0.7% in 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to slightly decline to 3.1% in 2017 from 3.2% in 2016 and is expected to stay between 3% and 3.1% through 2020.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

San Francisco Payroll Employment (Thousands)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

San Francisco Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

San Francisco Unemployment Rates (percent)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


San Francisco Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015(California = 100)


METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO

Quarterly Outlook for San FranciscoSeptember 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 152.8 157.1 159.3 161.3 163.4 163.7 166.7 169.2 172.0 174.5 176.9 179.9


Real Personal Income (2009$) 125.2 128.0 129.4 130.9 132.5 132.1 134.2 135.3 137.0 138.3 139.5 141.2Pct Chg Year Ago 7.6 9.0 8.3 8.2 5.8 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.4 4.7 4.0 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 94.0 96.4 97.5 98.4 99.4 99.2 100.8 102.0 103.4 104.7 105.8 107.4Real Per Capita Income (2009$) 77.0 78.5 79.1 79.8 80.6 80.1 81.1 81.6 82.4 82.9 83.4 84.3Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 106.5 108.4 107.9 108.9 109.8 110.0 111.1 112.5 113.7 114.9 116.1 117.5



Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 0.5 0.6 -1.9 -1.2 -0.3 -0.8 0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3Nonmanufacturing 995.1 1007.5 1024.6 1030.8 1040.2 1043.9 1054.1 1061.4 1069.1 1073.3 1076.4 1082.0




Information 57.9 59.3 60.5 61.1 61.0 60.9 61.4 62.2 62.7 61.6 60.3 61.0Pct Chg Year Ago 10.2 10.1 9.4 7.7 5.4 2.7 1.4 1.8 2.7 1.2 -1.7 -1.9





Other Services 40.1 40.1 40.2 40.0 39.6 40.4 40.0 40.1 40.1 40.0 39.9 39.8Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 1.6 0.6 -0.2 -1.3 0.8 -0.4 0.3 1.2 -1.1 -0.4 -0.9

Federal Government 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.5Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.6 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 -1.4

State & Local Government 105.3 106.0 107.5 107.3 108.4 109.0 110.4 110.4 110.2 110.0 109.9 109.9Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.2 3.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 1.7 1.0 -0.5 -0.5








Quarterly Outlook for San FranciscoSeptember 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 183.4 186.5 189.1 192.0 194.8 197.6 200.2 202.8 205.8 208.7 211.4 214.2


Real Personal Income (2009$) 143.3 144.9 146.2 147.7 149.1 150.4 151.6 152.8 154.2 155.6 156.8 157.9Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3




Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1Nonmanufacturing 1087.9 1093.7 1097.3 1100.8 1103.7 1107.1 1110.2 1112.9 1115.5 1119.6 1121.3 1123.4




Information 62.8 64.3 64.3 64.5 64.4 64.3 64.1 64.0 63.9 63.8 63.9 64.2Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 4.4 6.5 5.7 2.6 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.3 0.2

Financial Activities 75.9 75.9 76.0 76.1 76.2 76.2 76.2 76.2 76.2 76.1 76.1 76.1Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0




Other Services 39.7 39.7 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.4Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1


State & Local Government 109.9 109.9 110.0 110.1 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.4 110.4 110.5 110.5 110.4Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0








Annual Outlook for San FranciscoSeptember 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 105.7 108.9 119.2 134.1 137.1 145.2 157.6 165.8 175.9 187.8 198.9 210.0


Real Personal Income (2009$) 93.9 94.4 101.2 112.1 113.2 118.6 128.4 133.5 139.0 145.5 151.0 156.1Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0 0.6 7.2 10.8 1.0 4.7 8.3 4.0 4.1 4.7 3.8 3.4




Pct Chg Year Ago -9.9 -3.0 -1.6 -1.2 2.1 2.5 0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1Nonmanufacturing 831.6 824.9 848.5 890.8 926.2 967.9 1014.5 1049.9 1075.2 1094.9 1108.5 1119.9


Pct Chg Year Ago -20.8 -7.6 2.6 6.7 7.7 10.8 15.0 9.8 4.0 3.6 2.5 1.7Trade, Trans, & Utilities 133.4 130.1 130.9 135.5 140.9 145.0 149.1 151.6 153.9 154.8 155.7 156.1


Information 37.6 36.9 40.6 46.3 49.6 54.6 59.7 61.4 61.4 64.0 64.2 63.9Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5 -1.8 10.0 14.2 7.0 10.2 9.4 2.8 0.1 4.2 0.4 -0.4

Financial Activities 69.3 67.0 66.4 67.7 69.6 70.8 73.5 74.4 75.6 76.0 76.2 76.1Pct Chg Year Ago -9.0 -3.3 -0.9 2.1 2.7 1.9 3.7 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.3 -0.1

Prof & Business Services 182.3 182.0 195.8 214.2 228.0 243.9 260.9 275.4 289.0 301.0 309.5 316.9Pct Chg Year Ago -5.1 -0.1 7.6 9.4 6.5 7.0 6.9 5.6 5.0 4.1 2.8 2.4



Other Services 33.2 32.8 34.1 35.8 37.6 39.6 40.1 40.0 39.9 39.7 39.6 39.5Pct Chg Year Ago -3.5 -1.3 3.9 4.9 5.3 5.3 1.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.2 -0.3

Federal Government 17.9 19.3 18.3 17.9 17.6 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.2 16.8 17.4Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 7.6 -5.0 -2.2 -2.0 -0.2 0.8 0.4 -0.8 -2.2 -2.4 4.0

State & Local Government 102.7 102.0 102.1 101.5 101.3 103.2 106.5 109.5 110.0 110.0 110.3 110.4Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 1.9 3.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1



Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.2 1.7 3.2 1.6 2.5 3.0 1.9 2.2 1.3 1.1 0.7Unemployment Rate (%) 8.5 8.7 7.8 6.6 5.4 4.3 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0Total Housing Starts 681 795 2583 3496 4685 3913 4307 5448 4965 4433 4291 4154




S a n J o s e M S A

Total nonfarm employment is expected to grow 3.7% between 2015 and 2016 and grow 2.3% between 2016 and 2017. The leading sectors for employment growth in the third quarter of 2016 are Construction & Mining, Professional & Business Services, and Leisure & Hospitality all at 7% growth. Between 2016 and 2017, declines are expected in the Federal Government (-0.2%) and Other Services (-0.1%) sectors.

Real personal income is expected to grow to $130.8 billion, an increase of 3.2% in 2016 and is expected to grow 4.6% between 2016 and 2017. By 2020, real personal income is expected to reach $152.2 billion.

The San Jose MSA population is expected to reach approximately 2,002,735 in 2016, an increase of 1.2% from the previous year. The population will continue to grow approximately 1.2% each year, reaching 2,098,900 in 2020. The labor force will grow by 2.2% in 2016 and then 3.7% in 2017. The unemployment rate is forecasted to decrease to 3.9% in 2016 and will be at approximately 3.3 to 3.4% between 2018 and 2020.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

San Jose Payroll Employment (Thousands)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

San Jose Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

San Jose Unemployment Rates(percent)

0

50

100

150

200

250


San Jose Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015(California = 100)


METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE

Quarterly Outlook for San JoseSeptember 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 150.4 155.1 156.4 159.6 161.3 164.0 168.6 171.2 173.9 176.2 178.4 181.4






Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.4 -0.2 -1.0 -0.6 0.3 0.9 1.0Nonmanufacturing 865.3 873.8 890.2 896.2 901.4 914.3 927.8 934.2 940.3 942.5 943.7 948.7




Information 72.1 74.0 76.3 77.0 78.3 79.5 80.6 81.9 82.8 80.9 79.0 80.2Pct Chg Year Ago 14.6 13.9 12.9 10.2 8.6 7.4 5.6 6.4 5.7 1.8 -2.0 -2.1

Financial Activities 35.1 35.1 35.6 35.5 34.9 35.3 35.4 35.5 35.5 35.5 35.5 35.5Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.4 2.7 2.3 -0.5 0.5 -0.7 0.1 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.0




Other Services 26.7 26.7 27.3 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 1.1 2.8 4.6 3.5 3.3 2.5 0.5 1.0 0.7 -0.9 -1.1

Federal Government 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.9

State & Local Government 82.5 82.4 84.4 82.3 82.4 83.2 83.9 84.0 84.0 84.0 83.9 84.0Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -1.4 1.2 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 -0.6 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.1








Quarterly Outlook for San JoseSeptember 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 185.0 187.9 190.4 193.0 195.8 198.4 200.9 203.3 206.2 209.0 211.9 214.8









Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1Wholesale Trade 36.6 36.7 36.9 37.1 37.2 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.8 37.9 38.0 38.2Retail Trade 87.8 87.6 87.5 87.5 87.6 87.6 87.6 87.6 87.5 87.4 87.3 87.2Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2

Information 82.8 84.9 85.0 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.3 85.8 86.4Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 5.0 7.6 6.6 3.3 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 1.1

Financial Activities 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.3Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1




Other Services 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1










Annual Outlook for San JoseSeptember 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 100.1 108.3 119.1 134.1 135.9 144.3 155.4 166.3 177.5 189.1 199.6 210.5




Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 10.7 6.8 1.9 2.7 6.1 4.9 4.3 4.9 5.0 4.5 4.4 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Non-Farm Employment 871.3 869.0 889.8 923.9 960.7 1001.6 1043.0 1081.2 1106.3 1123.7 1134.8 1145.8


Pct Chg Year Ago -7.7 -1.5 2.5 0.4 -0.1 1.9 1.9 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6Nonmanufacturing 717.4 717.5 734.5 768.0 804.9 843.0 881.4 919.4 943.8 959.9 970.0 980.0

Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 0.0 2.4 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.3 2.7 1.7 1.1 1.0Construction & Mining 34.7 32.4 31.8 34.8 37.5 39.6 43.4 46.7 48.3 50.2 51.5 52.6



Information 43.9 46.5 51.3 54.2 58.7 66.3 74.8 80.1 80.7 84.5 85.5 85.7Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 6.0 10.4 5.7 8.3 12.9 12.9 7.0 0.8 4.8 1.1 0.3

Financial Activities 31.5 31.1 32.4 33.3 33.9 34.7 35.3 35.3 35.5 35.4 35.4 35.3Pct Chg Year Ago -8.0 -1.4 4.2 2.9 1.7 2.3 2.0 -0.1 0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2

Prof & Business Services 160.6 160.9 166.7 178.1 191.1 202.9 216.0 230.8 243.4 251.4 255.9 261.2Pct Chg Year Ago -9.9 0.3 3.6 6.8 7.3 6.2 6.4 6.8 5.5 3.3 1.8 2.0



Other Services 24.5 24.3 24.6 24.7 25.4 26.4 27.1 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.5Pct Chg Year Ago -3.5 -0.7 1.2 0.6 2.8 3.9 2.7 2.4 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 0.0

Federal Government 10.8 10.7 10.1 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.6 10.0Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 -0.6 -5.4 -2.8 0.8 -0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -1.7 -1.9 4.6

State & Local Government 85.6 83.7 82.5 81.6 81.8 83.5 82.9 83.3 84.0 84.4 85.0 85.3Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -2.3 -1.4 -1.1 0.3 2.1 -0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4







S t o c k t o n M S A

Total nonfarm employment is expected to grow 3.7% between 2015 and 2016 and 3.2% between 2016 and 2017. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2016 are the Leisure & Hospitality (5.7%); Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (4.6%); and Information (4.0%) sectors. Meanwhile, declines are expected in the Financial Activities (-1.1%) and Federal Government (-0.8%) sectors; declines are expected in these sectors through 2019.

Real personal income is expected to increase 3.2% between 2015 and 2016 and will continue to grow approximately 3% to 3.2% each year through 2020.

Per capita income, expected to be $40,200 in 2017, will increase each year through 2020, reaching $44,900 in 2020.

The population in the Stockton MSA will increase 1.5% in 2016 to approximately 738,700 and will increase each year reaching 783,100 in 2020. Growth each year in the labor force will be greater than the previous few years, with an expected growth rate of 1.3% between 2015 and 2016. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 8.9% in 2015 to 8.2% in 2016 and will remain at approximately 7.9% to 8.2% through 2020. Housing starts are also expected to grow each year between 2016 and 2020.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


Stockton Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015(California = 100)

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Stockton Payroll Employment (Thousands)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Stockton Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Stockton Unemployment Rates(percent)


METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON







Pct Chg Year Ago 7.6 6.6 6.5 5.4 3.1 2.6 -0.5 -2.1 -3.0 -2.6 -0.6 0.4Nonmanufacturing 294.8 297.0 300.2 304.0 303.0 308.2 309.7 312.0 313.9 315.0 315.9 317.0



Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 0.9 2.8 4.2 4.9 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7Wholesale Trade 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5Retail Trade 37.0 37.0 37.7 38.3 38.5 38.8 38.5 38.7 38.7 38.8 38.8 38.7Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8

Information 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 3.4 1.0 -0.8 -1.3 -1.9 -2.5 -2.0 -0.1 -2.8 -4.2 -3.1


Prof & Business Services 31.8 31.7 31.0 31.2 31.0 31.5 31.8 32.2 32.6 33.0 33.2 33.7Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 4.4 -1.5 -2.0 -2.4 -0.8 2.5 3.3 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.6


Leisure & Hospitality 31.2 31.3 31.5 31.7 30.5 31.8 32.2 32.6 32.9 33.1 33.3 33.4Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.6 -2.3 1.3 2.1 2.8 8.0 4.3 3.4 2.7


Federal Government 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 -3.2 -1.5 -1.8 0.3 3.9 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -2.9 -0.3 -0.8









Quarterly Outlook for StocktonSeptember 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 31.2 31.5 31.9 32.3 32.7 33.2 33.6 34.0 34.5 34.9 35.3 35.7










Information 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 4.6 7.5 6.1 2.7 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 0.7

Financial Activities 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3




Other Services 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4

Federal Government 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.1 2.9Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -0.2 14.4 5.7 0.1




Pct Chg Year Ago 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3Unemployment Rate (%) 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 3001 3017 3069 3131 3185 3284 3378 3468 3573 3628 3691 3692.8

Single-Family 2582 2607 2658 2713 2760 2855 2949 3033 3120 3172 3224 3217.3Multifamily 419 410 411 418 425 429 429 436 453 455 467 475.5




Annual Outlook for StocktonSeptember 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 21.1 21.3 22.4 23.5 24.5 25.9 27.5 28.7 30.1 31.7 33.4 35.1


Real Personal Income* 18.7 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.2 21.1 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.6 25.3 26.1Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 -1.2 2.6 3.5 2.8 4.5 6.2 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0


Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.8 1.2 1.1 -1.0 2.0 3.5 2.2 3.2 3.8 3.7 3.7 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)Total Non-Farm Employment 198.8 192.4 192.2 197.1 205.2 210.9 218.4 226.5 233.7 237.9 240.6 243.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -5.6 -3.2 -0.1 2.6 4.1 2.8 3.6 3.7 3.2 1.8 1.1 1.2Manufacturing 18.9 17.6 18.0 17.8 17.9 18.5 18.9 19.5 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -11.2 -6.6 2.0 -0.7 0.5 3.4 2.4 2.8 -5.2 1.0 0.8 0.8Nonmanufacturing 179.9 174.8 174.2 179.3 187.3 192.4 199.4 207.1 215.2 219.3 221.9 224.6

Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 -2.9 -0.3 2.9 4.4 2.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 1.9 1.2 1.2Construction & Mining 8.5 7.7 7.5 7.7 8.9 9.0 10.2 11.4 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.7



Information 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2Pct Chg Year Ago -7.3 -4.1 -0.3 1.2 -1.2 -0.8 -3.9 4.0 -1.0 4.5 0.5 0.0

Financial Activities 8.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9Pct Chg Year Ago -5.9 -12.7 -3.2 0.6 1.7 -2.1 -2.0 -1.1 -2.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4

Prof & Business Services 15.9 15.4 15.2 16.6 17.4 18.3 19.7 20.0 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.1Pct Chg Year Ago -9.4 -3.1 -1.5 9.5 4.7 5.1 7.9 1.4 -0.3 1.7 2.0 2.4


Leisure & Hospitality 16.7 16.1 16.4 17.0 18.2 19.1 19.6 20.8 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.9Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -3.3 1.5 4.1 6.8 4.9 3.1 5.7 2.9 0.9 0.8 1.1

Other Services 7.0 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3 -6.1 -2.9 3.2 1.1 4.3 2.2 2.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.2

Federal Government 4.1 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 5.7 -7.1 -2.5 -10.8 -10.1 -4.2 -0.8 0.0 -1.2 -1.4 5.0







University of the Pacific

A national doctoral university, University of the Pacific is recognized for an education combining exceptional professional preparation in a student-centered tradition of close interactions between students and professors. With a core liberal arts college and eight professional schools, more than any university enrolling fewer than 10,000 students, Pacific offers professional opportunities associated with far larger institutions in the environment of a small learning community. Pacific is California’s first chartered institution of higher learning, having received its articles of incorporation from the California Supreme Court on July 10, 1851. The University enrolls more than 5,600 students on three campuses situated in the Northern California cities of San Francisco, Stockton and Sacramento.

President Pamela A. Eibeck www.pacific.edu

Eberhardt School of Business

The Eberhardt School of Business offers a Masters in Business Administration (MBA), Master of Accounting (MAcc), Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, Bachelor of Science in Accounting, and Minors in Management, Business Administration, and Information Systems to nearly 700 students. With an emphasis on interactive classes and student-faculty engagement, the program is committed to developing successful future business leaders through a learning process that is personal, relevant, and professional. In addition to developing well-rounded and highly skilled graduates, the Eberhardt School of Business has demonstrated its commitment to community service and regional economic development through a variety of outreach programs and activities including the Center for Business and Policy Research, Career Management Center, Center for Entrepreneurship, Institute for Family Business, and Westgate Center for Management Development.

Dean Lewis R. Gale www.business.pacific.edu

Center for Business and Policy Research

The Center for Business and Policy Research, founded in 2004 and housed in the Eberhardt School of Business, produces quarterly economic forecasts of California and 8 metropolitan areas from Sacramento to Fresno to the San Francisco Bay Area. In addition to its forecasting program, the Center conducts policy and planning studies on topics such as water, transportation, housing, and economic development for public and private clients throughout Northern California.

Jeffrey A. Michael, Ph.D.

Director, Center for Business and Policy Research

Ph.D., North Carolina State University; M.S., University of Maine; B.A., Hamilton College (NY)

Dr. Jeffrey Michael is Director of the Center for Business and Policy Research and Associate Professor in the Eberhardt School of Business at the University of the Pacific.

Jeff’s areas of expertise include regional economic forecasting and environmental economics including work on the economic impacts of the Endangered Species Act, climate change, and regulation on land use, property values and employment growth.

His research has received numerous grants, been published in scholarly journals and received local and national press coverage including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times Magazine, San Francisco Chronicle, Washington Post, NPR, and PBS.

Prior to joining Pacific in 2008, Jeff was faculty at Towson University in Maryland where he served as Director of the Center for Applied Business and Economic Research, Associate Dean, and faculty. Jeff received his Ph.D. from North Carolina State University, M.S. from the University of Maine, and B.A. from Hamilton College (NY).



Pacific.edu/CBPR

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Stockton Office:3601 Pacific AvenueStockton, CA 95211

University of the Pacific | Eberhardt School of Business

Documents

Fall 2016 California & Metro - University of the Pacific · New housing starts are now projected to come in under 100,000 units for 2016, but we expect new housing starts to exceed