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Presents
Stopping Launch Pad Delays, Launch Failures,
Satellite Infant Mortalities And On Orbit Satellite
Failures Using Telemetry Prognostic Technology
by
Dr. Len LosikFor
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services & Technology Licensing
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Telemetry Prognostics (pro-active diagnostics) means predicting failures using telemetry
Failure Prediction™ Telemetry Prognostics uses normal vehicle Telemetry to identify flight equipment that has failed, is failing and is going to fail
Embedded in normal appearing telemetry is the information necessary to identify existing failures, failures in process and future failures
210/8/2007
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Telemetry Prognostics
Lowering Space Vehicle program costs
Shortening delivery schedules
Increasing on orbit equipment life
Improving satellite and launch vehicle
reliability
Stopping:
Launch pad delays
Launch failures
Early orbit infant mortalities
On orbit failures310/8/2007
NASA Space Shuttle Challenger, 1986
Telemetry Technology Evolution
1812Schilling
1845
Takobi
Konstantinov and Pouli
1874Olland
1906Seismic Recording
1946Missile Technology
1947Upper Atmosphere Monitoring
1957Digital Telemetry
1930
Radiosonde
Data Collection Monitoring/Diagnostics
1954Atlas Missile
Titan Missile
1955
Thor/Delta Missile1964
INTELSAT/COMSAT
PANAMSAT
Commercial Space
Prognostics
1958NASA/JPL/DSN
1969AFCSN
Marconi Wireless Communications
1907
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Titan Rocket1961
1975Atlas Rocket
Delta Rocket1962
1985
AFCSOC
1986
TDRSS
1978
Jet Aircraft1953
GPS
1978
5
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
How big is the launch vehicle failure problem?
10/8/2007
Aerospace Corporation
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Reliability
Rank
Bus Successful
Deployments
Value of
Insurance
Claims (US$)
Unsuccessful
Deployments
1 Eurostar E2000 19 $60M 7
2 Boeing BSS 376 55 $125M 6
3 Spacebus 3000 18 $326M 5
4 Lockheed Martin A2100 23 $375M 4
5 Space Systems/Loral S 1300 41 $791M 10
6 Boeing BSS 702 8 $1,040M 6
7 Boeing BSS 601 62 $1,468M 16
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
How big is the commercial satellite failure problem?
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History of Telemetry Prognostics
Created and used on the Air Force Global Positioning
System between 1978-1984, results were document in
contract CDRL item A004
Air Force funded the GPS Block I satellite contractor in 1978 to
provide an engineering team to determine peak payload
performance times to conduct critical multi-service system testing to
get the highest navigation subsystem performance possible to obtain
future program funding
No budget limits
No limit on technical or administration resources needed
After GPS program was fully funded, Telemetry Prognostic
technology was abandoned in 1984
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
10/8/2007 8
Contributions in reducing vehicle production costs & schedule
using Telemetry Prognostics for satellites and launch vehicles
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Equipment
Manufacturing
Satellite I&T
Missile/Launch Vehicle I&T
Launch Pad
Integration
Up to 10%
Up to 40%
Up to 40% Up to 10%
9
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Equipment
Manufacturing
Satellite I&TMissile/Launch Vehicle I&T
Launch Pad
Integration
On Orbit Operations
Up to 20%
Up to 20%Up to 20%
Up to 20%
Up to 40%
Contribution to increasing equipment/vehicle reliability using
Telemetry Prognostics
10/8/2007
Type of
Vehicle
Area Application Level of
Difficulty
Has Prognostics
Been Used?
Missions
SATELLITE Design GEO Low Yes INTELSAT 7 & 7A, GPS
Equipment
Manufacturing
Low GPS, GOES I
Factory I&T Low Yes GPS, GOES I
Launch Pad
Integration
Low Yes GPS
Launch Not done No None
On Orbit
Early Orbit Medium Yes GPS, SUPERBIRD
Final Orbit Low Yes GPS, EUVE, SUPERBIRD
LEO High Yes EUVE, GPS, SUPERBIRD
MEO Low Yes GPS
MTO Low Yes GPS
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Telemetry Prognostic Use Summary
10/8/2007
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Type of
Vehicle
Area Orbit Level of
Difficulty
Has Prognostics
Been Used?
Missions
SATELLITE On Orbit GEO Low Yes SUPERBIRD
GTO Low Yes SUPERBIRD
Interplanetary Low No None
Space Probes Low No None
Deep Space Low No None
LAUNCH
VEHICLE
Equipment Manufacturing Low Yes TITAN
Factory I&T Low Yes TITAN
Launch Pad Integration Low Yes ATLAS
Launch Readiness Low Yes ATLAS, ARIANE
Launch Not Done No Telemetry Not
Available
MISSILE Design, Manufacturing,
Test, Launch, Submarine,
Silo Storage
Ballistic
Trajectory
Low Yes TRIDENT D4
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Telemetry Prognostic Use Summary
Why Use Failure Analysis’ Failure Prediction™
Telemetry Prognostic technology? FA knows what to look for
No two failures look alike in telemetry
FA knows when to look for it
In large data bases, failure signatures are (almost) impossible to find
FA knows how to look for it
FA knows why it works
Failure Prediction™ has been 100% accurate to date with remaining
usable life predictions
Flight proven
12
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
10/8/2007
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Detects future failure in normal appearing telemetry
Detects future failures in high stressed operational environment
Observe individual component/circuit failure as it is occurring
Insensitive to quantity of telemetry
Insensitive to sampling rate of data
Insensitive to (quality) noisy or unreliable telemetry
Insensitive to LSB resolution
Insensitive to sensor aging and temperature effects
Data processing platform independent
Developed for use on existing Satellite and Launch Vehicle telemetry systems
Vehicle independent
13
Features of Failure Prediction™ Telemetry Prognostics
ARIANE V Launch Vehicle
10/8/2007
10/8/2007 14
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Tem
peratu
re
23°C
Redefines the failure rate of a system Traditional bathtub curve for complex electrical systems
With Failure
Prediction™
Technology
Without Failure
Prediction™
Technology
(FIT - Failure
In Time
expresses the
number of
failure per
billion hours)
Useful Life
Design LifeLaunch
Infant Mortalities
Failure Prediction™ Telemetry Prognostics
technology is superior to traditional acceptance
testing
10/8/2007 15
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Prognostics technology
Identifies equipment that
has failed
Identifies flight equipment
that is failing
Identifies flight equipment
that will fail
Traditional acceptance testing
Identifies equipment that has
failed
16
Improves Piece Part Lot Wear Out Failure Rate
0123456
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Nu
mb
er
of
Fa
ilu
res p
er
Lo
t
Design Life
How Well Failure Prediction™ Improves Reliability
Number of Failures Without Failure Prediction™ technology
Number of Failures with Failure Prediction™ technology
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
10/8/2007
Telemetry Prognostics training includes Signal conditioning
Filtering
Amplification
Linear & non linear DC circuit analysis
Circuit design
Troubleshooting
Satellite communications
Satellite communications design
RF Communications
Digital communications
Digital signal processing
Telemetry & Command systems design & test
Mechanical design
Thermal control design
10/8/2007 17
Telemetry software design,
development & test
Command software design
Validation & verification
Statistical analysis
Deterministic
Bayesian
Stochastic
Mathematical modeling
Harmonic/Fourier Analysis
Fourier transforms
FFT
Kalman filtering
Neural networks
Regression analysis
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Failure Prediction™ consists of: Technology for compensating for unreliable telemetry
Eliminate false positives
Technology for minimizing telemetry database size for processing
On orbit database sizes can be immense
Reduction of 99.999% in size is achievable
Some are too large to access data for processing
Technology for compensating for insufficient amount of telemetry
Technologies for creating normal telemetry
Technology for identifying failure precursors in normal telemetry
Technology for discriminating between normal telemetry and anomalous
normal telemetry
Technology for processing and displaying data
Capability to determine remaining usable life and day of failure10/8/2007 18
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Yes
No
Was There A Change In Equipment
Configuration That Is Responsible For The
Change in Data Behavior?
No
Telemetry Data In From
Electronic Devices
Is Data Valid?
Yes
No
Is There Data Different
From Baseline (normal)
Data?
Continue To Collect
Electronic Device Data
Determine If There Was A Change To Equipment Status That Can Be The Cause Of
The Change In Behavior
Is The Collection Of
Data Complete?
Stop
Continue To Collect Data From Electrical Devices
Yes
Is The Data Behavior
Unrealistic?
Yes
Assume Data Behavior Is Due
To Failed Sensor
No
Assume Data Behavior Is A
Failure Precursor
Determine Remaining Usable Life and Day of Failure For Equipment Failure Precursor Data
Is From
No
Remove /Replace Invalid Data
Continue To Collect Data From Electrical Devices, Ignore Data From Failed Sensors
Start
Yes
No
Is The Collection Of
Data From Electronic Equipment Complete?
Yes
Stop
Process for Identification of Failure Precursors in Telemetry
Technology Purpose/Objective
Active Reasoning Takes passively monitored symptoms and returns fault diagnosis
Telemetry Authentication To remove/replace unreliable telemetry
Rate Change Analysis To identifies suspect telemetry for further analysis
State Change Analysis To identify telemetry for further analysis
Multi-variant Limit Analysis To identify suspect telemetry behavior
Statistical Sampling To reduce size of telemetry database to analyze
Super Impositioning To create virtual telemetry behavior
Mathematical Modeling To generate predictive modeling functions
Digital Processing To improve image resolution
Super Precision To improve image resolution
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Telemetry Prognostics Content Summary
10/8/2007 20
10/8/2007 21
Technology Purpose/Objective
Data Mining To identify suspect telemetry behavior in large databases of telemetry
Database Generation To reduce the amount of telemetry to analyze
Baseline Analysis To determine normal telemetry behavior
Change Analysis To identify deviations from normal telemetry behavior
Discrimination Analysis To be able to discriminate normal from failure precursors
Root Cause Analysis To identify circuit/component failing
Remaining Usable Life To determine remaining usable life of equipment
Day of Failure Analysis To determine day of failure of unreliable equipment
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Telemetry Prognostics Content Summary
Technology Box Supplier Satellite Factory LV Factory Launch Site Mission Control
Telemetry Authentication X
Rate Change Analysis X X X X
State Change Analysis X X X X
Super Impositioning X
Mathematical Modeling X X X X X
Super Precision X
SFI, SDI, NFI, NDI sampling X X X X
Data Mining X X X X X
Digital Processing X
Change Analysis X X X X X
Baseline Analysis X X X X X
Discrimination Analysis X X X X X
Failure Pattern Recognition X X X X X
Root Cause Failure Analysis X X X X X
Determining Remaining Usable Life X X X X X
Predicting Day of Failure X X X X X
Multi-variant Limit Analysis X X X X
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Suggested Location of Failure Prediction™ Implementation
10/8/2007 23
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Telemetry Prognostics Products
Years
Start
Finish
Minor Frames
Degre
es C
10/8/2007 24
No changes to current vehicle designs needed
To increase the amount of equipment used with, increasing the
equipment instrumented can be done
Add education and training in Telemetry Prognostics for use in AT
Be prepared to return more flight equipment to suppliers and
manufacturing
Turn around time may impact vehicle integration
This may delay AT
Be prepared to convince equipment suppliers they are shipping
unreliable equipment
Be prepared to require Telemetry Prognostics use during
equipment AT just like SS/L, in procurement specifications
Failure AnalysisEngineering Services
Books and reference material available from Failure Analysis
at www.failureanalysisco.com, [email protected] An Introduction to Predicting Failures & Measuring Remaining Usable Life for Highly Reliable
Aerospace Equipment, ISBN 0974135844, 400 pgs, $99.95, available from Amazon.com, etc
Predicting Failures & Measuring Remaining Usable Life for Highly Reliable Aerospace Equipment,
ISBN 097674919X, 325 pgs, $149.95, available from Amazon.com etc.
Failure Prediction Telemetry Prognostics for Satellite & Launch Vehicle Integration & Test Users
Guide, 200 pgs, available free
Predicting Failures & Estimating Duration of Remaining Service Life from Satellite Telemetry, paper
published at ITC 1995, available free
Stopping Launch Pad Delays, Launch Failures, Satellite Infant Mortalities and On orbit Satellite
Failures Using Telemetry Prognostic Technology, paper presented at ITC 2007, available free
Power Point presentation from the paper presented at ITC 2007 titled, Stopping Launch Pad Delays,
Launch Failures, Satellite Infant Mortalities and On orbit Satellite Failures Using Telemetry
Prognostic Technology, available free
A Statistical Approach for the Development of the Failure Prediction Process (FPP) published in 1995
by Lockheed Martin Space & Missiles Systems, available free
Telemetry Prognostic Technology Power Point presentation, 200 pgs, available free
10/8/2007 25
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Failure Analysis1727 Independence Blvd. Suite 205
Salinas, CA 93906
www.failureanalysisco.com
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