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Facts and Figures
Office market Frankfurt am Main Q3 2017
‘‘The essence of knowledge is, having it, to apply it.‘‘
Dr. Konrad Kanzler Head of Research +49 (0) 69 - 970 [email protected]
Radomir Vasilijevic Head of Office & Retail Letting +49 (0) 69 - 970 [email protected]
Lenny Lemler Co-Head of Investment +49 (0) 69 - 970 [email protected]
Quote from Confucius
If you require any further information, please do not hesitate to contact us. We can put you in touch with our specialists who are always happy to provide you with expert support. We look forward to hearing from you!
Martin Angersbach Head of Business Development Office Germany +49 (0) 69 - 970 [email protected]
Population development Frankfurt a. M.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jun-17
Inhabitants June 2017: 736,222
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Purchasing power per capita Germany Purchasing power per capita Frankfurt a. M.
Purchasing power per capita 2017: Germany €22,239 / Frankfurt €25,532
Purchasing power per capita Germany and Frankfurt a. M.
Unemployment / employees subject to social insur. contribution
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Aug-17
Consumer price index Germany and Hesse
85
90
95
100
105
110
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Aug-17
CPI Germany (base year: 2010) CPI Hesse (base year: 2010)
CPI August 2017: Germany 109.5 / Hesse 108.9
Market Environment
The Frankfurt am Main metropolitan area continues to be characterised by signifi-cant population growth during 2017. Ac-cording to latest figures from the City of Frankfurt, the number of inhabitants stood at 736,222 on 30 June 2017, rep-resenting an increase of 6,598 inhabit-ants or 0.9 % over the first half of the year. According to official city forecasts, the population is expected to exceed 750,000 by the end of 2018, with the number of residents then passing the 800,000-mark in 2027.
In line with the increasing population, the Frankfurt employment market also con-tinues to show a consistently positive performance. Based on the latest up-date on 31 December 2016, the number of employees that are subject to social insurance contributions increased by 1.8 % to 559,566 compared to the pre-vious year. The rate of unemployment fell by a further 0.4 %-points by August 2017 compared to the same month a year ago, and now stands at 5.8 %.
At the same time, the shortage of skilled workers is proving to have a limiting ef-fect on Frankfurt’s economic develop-ment. According to the IHK Fachkräfter-eport 2017 (report on skilled workers 2017) published by the Frankfurt Cham-ber of Industry and Commerce (IHK), the economy in the state of Hesse currently faces a shortage of around 56,000 skilled employees. Even though a sub-stantial decrease in overall demand is expected by 2030, a far greater decline in skilled labour can be predicted. The supply shortage of skilled workers is therefore expected to reach 200,000 people by 2030. The office-related con-sultancy and business services sectors currently face a shortage of 15,000 em-ployees in Hesse, a number that is ex-pected to rise to 49,000 by 2030.
Sou
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GfK
Geo
Mar
ktin
g G
mb
H, F
eder
al S
tatis
tical
Offi
ce
Sou
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Sta
te S
tatis
tical
Offi
ce H
esse
, Em
ploy
men
t Age
ncy
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Fed
eral
Sta
tistic
al O
ffice
S
ourc
e: C
ity o
f Fra
nkfu
rt a
. M.
760,000
740,000
720,000
700,000
680,000
660,000
640,000
620,000
600,000
Employees Frankfurt a. M.
Unemployment rate Germany
thereof tertiary sector
Unemployment rate Frankfurt a. M.
Take-up, vacancy, prime rent, average rent, prolongation 1,
950
sqm
1,79
0 sq
m
1,59
0 sq
m
1,68
0 sq
m
1,76
0 sq
m
1,96
0 sq
m
1,52
0 sq
m
1,34
0 sqm
1,31
6 sq
m
1,25
1 sq
m
1,24
6 sq
m
1,07
0 sq
m
505
sqm
547
sqm
510
sqm
350
sqm
472
sqm
427
sqm
515
sqm
452
sqm
369
sqm
394
sqm
541
sqm
432
sqm
210
sqm
97 s
qm
74 s
qm
24 s
qm
34.70
40.0042.00
39.00 39.00
36.50 36.0038.00 38.00
39.20 39.00 39.20
17.0019.00
21.00 20.30 20.00 19.5020.50 20.50 20.50 20.50
19.30 20.10
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1-Q3 2017
Market Data
Take-up according to location Q1-Q3 2017
91,200 sqm
46,200 sqm
31,900 sqm
21,500 sqm
7,600 sqm2,000 sqm
38,900 sqm31,800 sqm
16,400 sqm
1,400 sqm
107,300 sqm
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Bankenlage Westend Bahnhofsviertel Stadtmitte City West Messe Westhafen Nordend Bockenheim OF-Kaiserlei Eschborn Niederrad (Büro) Mertonviertelother locations
65 Deals
91 Deals
42 Deals
68 Deals
3 Deals
143 Deals
5 Deals13 Deals
Total: 432,200 sqm
34 Deals
19 Deals
6 Deals
5 Deals
The Frankfurt market for office space lettings including Eschborn and Offenbach-Kaiserlei was able to continue the very positive development of the previous two quarters. The period from July to September 2017 represented the strongest third quarter of the past ten years, with space take-up by tenants and owner-occupiers of 183,900 sqm. This also represented a year-on-year increase of 45.1 % or 57,200 sqm. Space take-up for the first nine months of 2017 amounted to 432,200 sqm, which exceeded the previous year’s level by around a quarter.
The Frankfurt office market is chasing new records, and for the full year will in all likelihood achieve the second-highest space take-up volume since 2000. Partly as a consequence of Brexit, large deals in particular will help generate above-average take-up for the fourth quarter of 2017.
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Frankfurt office market with prospect of second-best annual result
Vacancy (in thousand)
Take-up (in thousand)
Prolongation after market screening (in thousand)
Average take-up 10 years (in thousand)
Prime rent (in €/sqm)
Average rent (in €/sqm)
9,100 sqm12,600 sqm18 Deals
14,300 sqm18 Deals
Take-up according to unit size Q1-Q3 2017
152,100 sqm
73,400 sqm 71,600 sqm 71,400 sqm63,700 sqm
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Total 432,200 sqm
449 Deals
47 Deals 19 Deals 11 Deals4 Deals
Take-up according to rents Q1-Q3 2017
20,100 sqm
109,600 sqm 114,000 sqm
38,300 sqm
58,400 sqm 57,600 sqm
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
< €10 €10 < 15 €15 < 20 €20 < 25 €25 < 30 ≥ €30
78 Deals 35 Deals
Total: 398,000 sqm*
34 Deals
150 Deals 162 Deals
68 Deals
*lettings only, no owner occupiers
Take-up according to space quality Q1-Q3 2017
Total 432,200 sqm
Take-up according to industry Q1-Q3 2017
Banking, Financial Services & Insurances
Consulting, Marketing & Research
Construction & Real Estate
Communication & IT
Law Firms, Notaries & Legal Services
Others & n/a
Market Data
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< 1,000 sqm 1,000 - 2,500 sqm 2,501 - 5,000 sqm 5,001 - 10,000 sqm > 10,000 sqm
superior
average
ordinary
59.2 %
31.2 %
9.6 %
23.6 %
12.2 %
10.4 %9.2 %
8.2 %
36.4 %
The two categories above 5,000 sqm have already registered especially strong growth in the first three quarters of the year. Take-up increased by 29.5 % year-on-year in the “5,001 – 10,000 sqm” cluster, while in the “10,000-sqm-plus” cluster the volume grew by as much as 124.4 %.
The biggest deals in both the third quar-ter and the year to date include the owner-occupier purchase of the Main-Park (29-35 Kaiserleistraße) with ap-proximately 27,500 sqm of office space by Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba) and the lease contract for 14,400 sqm at 277-293 Mainzer Land-straße by the City of Frankfurt am Main.
The banking, financial services and in-surance sector was again in first place in a ranking of the different office user groups, accounting for a volume of 102,100 sqm or a 23.6 % market share. The group comprising consulting, mar-keting and research was next in line with 52,900 sqm or a 12.2 % share, followed by the construction and real estate in-dustry with 45,100 sqm or 10.4 % of the market.
Due to the Helaba purchase, the super-ordinate location “office centres” gained further in significance and accounted for 20.5 % of take-up or 88,400 sqm in total (H1 2017: 16.6 %). However, the Central Business District remained the most popular location with 236,400 sqm or a 54.7 % market share.
Large lettings in high-priced project de-velopments such as “Omniturm” or “Four” influenced rental prices in the third quarter of 2017. Compared to the previous quarter, the average rent in-creased by €0.60/sqm to €20.10/sqm. The prime rent grew by €0.20/sqm to the current level of €39.20/sqm.
Main Location Vacancy
F-CBD 446,500 sqm F-WEST 53,000 sqm F-SOUTH 91,500 sqm F-NORTH 56,500 sqmF-EAST 46,200 sqm OFFICE CENTRES 375,900 sqm
Total 1,070,000 sqm
data as of 30.09.2017 * inclusive subletting spaces in comparison to pervious reports changed main locations edition: January 2008 / © Stadtvermessungsamt Frankfurt a. M., 2008
Frankfurt am Main Airport
Office stock
Take up
Average rent
Prime rent €27.00/sqm
371,200 sqm
26,700 sqm
€20.00/sqm
Office Locations Frankfurt a.M. Q3 2017 We have divided the office market Frankfurt into the most important main locations and have colored them separately. In addition, every location is divided into the particular borough and identified with the correspond-ing apellation of site.
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Office Locations
Submarkets Office stock (sqm) vacancy (sqm) in % Ø-rent (€) Prime rent (€) Rentable objects1. Höchst 189,000 6,500 3.4 8.00 16.00 82. Eschborn-West 168,100 31,600 18.8 10.00 13.00 83. Eschborn-Süd 386,300 94,000 24.3 11.00 15.30 244. Eschborn-Ost 123,900 8,500 6.9 11.50 15.00 45. Sossenheim 87,300 6,800 7.8 11.00 12.50 36. Nied 700 0 0.0 8.90 11.00 07. Rödelheim 115,500 22,900 19.8 9.50 12.50 108. Griesheim 16,800 0 0.0 6.00 8.50 09. City West 517,100 73,600 14.2 14.50 21.00 1410. Gallus 580,300 16,400 2.8 11.00 15.00 811. Niederrad (Büro) 609,700 88,900 14.6 12.00 16.00 1712. Niederrad (Stadt) 12,500 0 0.0 10.00 13.00 013. Gutleutviertel 138,300 300 0.2 11.50 13.00 114. Westhafen 88,100 11,900 13.5 22.50 27.00 615. Bahnhofsviertel 404,000 46,600 11.5 17.00 26.50 3116. Messe/Europaviertel 313,400 36,600 11.7 23.50 34.50 417. Bockenheim 311,200 22,200 7.1 14.50 19.00 818. Westend 658,600 92,400 14.0 22.50 37.00 6219. Bankenlage 1,122,300 96,300 8.6 30.00 39.20 2320. Stadtmitte 581,700 53,000 9.1 23.00 36.00 5521. Nordend 126,700 13,900 11.0 17.50 25.00 1022. City Ostend 226,300 2,600 1.1 14.50 17.00 323. Sachsenhausen 444,600 38,600 8.7 13.00 19.00 2424. Oberrad 4,500 700 15.6 12.00 15.50 325. OF-Kaiserlei 239,800 33,600 14.0 10.00 12.50 826. Ostend-Ost 355,300 26,400 7.4 13.00 18.50 2427. Bornheim 36,900 200 0.5 9.00 13.50 228. Riederwald/Fechenheim 226,400 10,100 4.5 8.00 11.00 729. Bergen-Enkheim 50,600 6,800 13.4 7.00 12.00 630. Seckbach 15,100 100 0.7 7.00 9.00 131. Eckenheim 13,900 900 6.5 12.00 16.00 232. Eschersheim 33,400 800 2.4 10.00 16.50 233. Nieder-Eschbach 138,000 36,700 26.6 8.00 10.50 1234. Mertonviertel 275,500 119,300 43.3 12.00 14.00 835. Heddernheim 10,900 700 6.4 10.00 12.00 236. Praunheim/Hausen 108,000 16,500 15.3 11.50 13.50 7Total(inclusive other locations)
11,371,000 1,070,000 9.4 20.10 39.20 417
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Geographical localisation of office spaces completions 2017 accor. to size categories (> 1,000 sqm)
Geographical localisation of large-scale lettings Q1-Q3 2017 accor. to size categories (> 1,000 sqm)
Market Data
Lettings according to size
> 1,000 sqm - ≤ 2,500 sqm> 2,500 sqm - ≤ 5,000 sqm> 5,000 sqm - ≤ 10,000 sqm>10,000 sqm
Office space completion according to size
> 1,000 sqm - ≤ 5,000 sqm> 5,000 sqm - ≤ 10,000 sqm> 10,000 sqm - ≤ 20,000 sqm> 20,000 sqm
Vacancy according to vacancy size Q3 2017
79,400 sqm
161,800 sqm209,200 sqm
274,300 sqm
344,800 sqm
152,100 sqm 73,400 sqm 71,600 sqm 71,400 sqm 63,700 sqm0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
< 1,000 sqm 1,000 - 2,500 sqm 2,501 - 5,000 sqm 5,001 - 10,000 sqm > 10,000 sqm
Vacancy Take-up Q1-Q3 2017
199 (sub-)properties
99 (sub-)properties
61 (sub-)properties
40 (sub-)properties
18 (sub-)properties
Total: 1,070,000 sqm (417 sub-properties), occupied within three months
Vacancy according to asking rent Q3 2017
140,500 sqm
463,100 sqm
178,700 sqm
20,100 sqm 109,600 sqm 114,000 sqm 38,300 sqm 58,400 sqm 57,600 sqm0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
< €10 €10 < 15 €15 < 20 €20 < 25 €25 < 30 ≥ €30
Vacancy Take-up Q1-Q3 2017
Total: 1,070,000 sqm (417 sub-properties), occupied within three months*
70 (sub-)properties
148 (sub-)properties
99 (sub-)properties
103,400 sqm 108,000 sqm 75,900 sqm
42 (sub-)properties 35 (sub-)properties 23 (sub-)properties
*average asking rent of all spaces per property
Vacancy according to quality of space Q3 2017
Total: 1,070,000 sqm (417 sub-properties), occupied within three months
Completions
80,1
00 s
qm
157,
400
sqm
300,
500
sqm
110,
500
sqm
126,
200
sqm
98,7
00 s
qm
102,
500
sqm
9,20
0 sq
m
17,7
00 s
qm
49,9
00 s
qm
35,5
00 s
qm
32,6
00 s
qm
7,40
0 sq
m
27,2
00 s
qm
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Completions thereof rentable (before completion)
Outlook next 12 months
Market Data
No office properties of any significance were completed in the third quarter of 2017, while in contrast around 18,000 sqm was removed from the mar-ket and converted into residential space. As a result, office stock declined to 11.37 million sqm at the end of Q3 2017.
In the year as a whole, the projected completions volume currently stands at 98,700 sqm, of which only 7,400 sqm is still available on the rental market.
Vacancies fell further in the period from July to September, continuing an ongo-ing trend. Market-active vacancies on the Frankfurt office market – that is, of-fice space that can be occupied within three months of the contract signing – decreased by a further 74,000 sqm to 1.07 million sqm within the quarter. This translates into a vacancy rate of 9.4 %, which fell 0.6 %-points during the previ-ous three months.
The lettings pipeline is still well-filled and will have a significant impact on the fourth quarter of 2017, which is why it is able to forecast space take-up of signif-icantly above 600,000 sqm for the full year. As a consequence, vacancies will continue to decline and rents will con-tinue to rise.
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Take-up
Average rent
Vacancy
Prime rent
Office stock
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$
$
$
$
%
superior
average
ordinary
53.6 %
27.2 %
19.2 %
Market Data Surroundings of Frankfurt Average and Prime Rents
Source: NAI apollo Map Basis: RegioGraph GfK GeoMarketing GmbH On the basis of 5,314 offers (08/2016 - 07/2017) empirica-systeme Marktdatenbank
Surroundings
Frie
dric
hsdo
rf 7.
20 /
11.
60€/
sqm
Bad
Hom
burg
9.
90 /
15.
20€/
sqm
Obe
rurs
el
8.40
/ 1
3.00
€/sq
m
Kro
nber
g
10.7
0 /
14.7
0€/s
qm
Bad
Sod
en
9.70
/ 1
3.20
€/sq
m
Kel
khei
m
8.00
/ 1
2.70
€/sq
m
Ste
inba
ch
6.90
/ 1
0.00
€/sq
m
Sch
wal
bach
10
.70
/ 12
.80€
/sqm
Sul
zbac
h
9.30
/ 1
3.80
€/sq
m
Lied
erba
ch
7.10
/ 1
0.00
€/sq
m
Hof
heim
6.
60 /
13.
00€/
sqm
Krif
tel
7.30
/ 1
0.40
€/sq
m
Hat
ters
heim
9.
40 /
13.
00€/
sqm
Kel
ster
bach
8.
80 /
13.
10€/
sqm
Mör
feld
en-W
alld
orf
7.70
/ 1
0.80
€/sq
m
Lang
en
7.70
/ 1
1.90
€/sq
m
Dre
ieic
h
6.70
/ 1
2.10
€/sq
m
Neu
-Ise
nbur
g
9.20
/ 1
3.10
€/sq
m
Die
tzen
bach
6.
30 /
10.
70€/
sqm
Offe
nbac
h
9.40
/ 1
4.50
€/sq
m
Mai
ntal
5.
40 /
10.
10€/
sqm
Han
au
6.90
/ 1
2.20
€/sq
m
Bad
Vilb
el
8.90
/ 1
2.60
€/sq
m
Airp
ort
20.0
0 /
27.0
0€/s
qm
Top take-up Q1-Q3 2017
Cities
Office space, take-up, vacancy, prime rent, average rent Q3 2017
Prime yields Q3 2017
Frankfurt a. M.
Top investments Q1-Q3 2017
Top 5 – Key Facts
Prime office yields Prime retail yields
Berlin 3.10 % 3.25 %
Dusseldorf 3.80 % 3.40 % 4.70 %
Frankfurt a. M. 3.45 % 3.45 % 4.70 %
Hamburg 3.20 % 3.30 % 4.70 %
Munich 3.10 % 2.95 % 4.65 %
Total Ø = 3.35 % Ø = 3.25 % Ø = 4.70 % Sou
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Office space (in m. sqm) Vacancy (in %) Prime rent (€/sqm) Average rent (€/sqm)
Berlin 18.60 2.4 30.00 17.10
Dusseldorf 9.13 7.9 26.50 14.50
Frankfurt a. M. 11.37 9.4 39.20 20.10
Hamburg 13.70 4.9 26.50 15.10
Munich 20.15 3.4 36.00 16.60 Sou
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Leased area in sqm
27,500
14,400
Clifford Chance 11,800
Omniturm, Große Gallusstraße 16-18 / Bankenlage Morgan Stanley 10,000
Berliner Straße 316 / Offenbach-Kaiserlei Axa Versicherung 8,000
Tenant / owner occupier
Helaba
Property + Location
MainPark, Kaiserleistraße 29-35 / Offenbach-Kaiserlei
Mainzer Landstraße 277-293 / Gallus Stadt Frankfurt
Junghof Plaza, Junghofstraße 18-26 / Bankenlage
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Amundi Real Estate
Purchase Price
approx. €310,000,000
T8, Taunusanlage 8 Mirae Asset Global Investments Co. approx. €300,000,000
Eschborn Plaza, Mergenthalerallee 3-5 Aurec / Migdal Insurance Group etc. approx. €236,000,000
WestendCarree, Grüneburgweg 14-18 Infrared Capital Partners approx. €127,000,000
Frankfurt Airport Center 1 (FAC 1), Hugo-Eckener-Ring 1 Madison International Realty / Peakside approx. €120,000,000
Property + Location
Grand Central, Adam-Riese-Straße
PurchaserS
ourc
e: N
AI a
pollo
Prime logistics yields
4.70 %
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This report is for information purposes only. It was compiled with the
utmost care and is based on information from sources that we regard as
being reliable, but for which we assume no liability for their accuracy,
completeness or correctness. Estimates, figures and forecasts con-tained in this document are for guidance only. This report does not pur-
sue the aim of promoting the purchase or sale of a particular financial
investment and thus should not be considered as such an offer. The
reader of this report must make his or her own independent decisions in
regards to correctness and completeness. The NAI apollo assumes no liability for direct or indirect damage that arises through inaccuracies,
omissions or errors in this report. We reserve the right to make changes
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