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Factors Shaping Long-Term Future Global Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions. 7 th International Carbon Dioxide Conference September 25-30, 2005 Jae Edmonds, Hugh Pitcher, and Steve Smith 25 September 2005 Joint Global Change Research Institute Bloomfield, CO. Thanks to. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Factors Shaping Long-Factors Shaping Long-Term Future Global Energy Term Future Global Energy
Demand and Carbon EmissionsDemand and Carbon Emissions
Factors Shaping Long-Factors Shaping Long-Term Future Global Energy Term Future Global Energy
Demand and Carbon EmissionsDemand and Carbon Emissions
7th International Carbon Dioxide Conference
September 25-30, 2005
Jae Edmonds, Hugh Pitcher, and Steve Smith
25 September 2005Joint Global Change Research InstituteBloomfield, CO
2
Thanks toThanks toThanks toThanks to
Peter Tans & the Organizers of the 7th International Carbon Dioxide Conference
US DOE Office of ScienceEPRI
Other sponsors of the GTSP
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Brian Fisher, Richard Richels, & John Weyant
3
Key Question for TodayKey Question for TodayKey Question for TodayKey Question for Today
What are the sources of CO2 emissions?
How much carbon is there?
What are the fundamental drivers of CO2 emissions?
What range of CO2 emissions trajectories could be anticipated (reference and stabilization)?
4
Final ThoughtsFinal ThoughtsFinal ThoughtsFinal Thoughts
Reference case fossil fuel and land-use change carbon emissions are dominated by the fossil fuel loading.There is significant uncertainty in CO2 loading of the atmosphere and oceans. FF emissions range in 2100 from
~3 PgC/y (SRES B1T MESSAGE) to >35 PgC/y (SRES A1C AIM)
Cumulative emissions 1990 to 2100 range from <775 Pg to (SRES B1T MESSAGE) >2,500 Pg (SRES A1C AIM)
The high end of these ranges are truncated in stabilization scenarios.
Dramatic changes in energy technology are needed over the century to realize the lower end of the range.
5
Sources of Anthropogenic COSources of Anthropogenic CO22 EmissionsEmissions
Sources of Anthropogenic COSources of Anthropogenic CO22 EmissionsEmissions
Fossil fuel use (7.0 PgC/y in 2002) Natural gas 13.7 TgC/EJ Oil 20.2 TgC/EJ Coal 25.5 TgC/EJ
Industrial process emissions (e.g. cement) 0.2 PgC/y
Land-use change emissions (1.7; 0.6-2.6 PgC/y) Deforestation Soil cultivation
6
Fossil Fuel Carbon EmissionsFossil Fuel Carbon Emissions20022002
Fossil Fuel Carbon EmissionsFossil Fuel Carbon Emissions20022002
1,592
957
893
390
333
328
1,232
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Tg
C/y
196 OTHER COUNTRIES
UKRAINE
BRAZIL
SAUDI ARABIA
SOUTH AFRICA
AUSTRALIA
ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN
MEXICO
REPUBLIC OF KOREA
CANADA
JAPAN
INDIA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
WESTERN EUROPE
CHINA (MAINLAND)
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
total 6,644
50%
67%
75%
81%
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
1,348
2,883
2,472
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Tg
C/y
Gas FlaringCementCoal and other solidsOil and other liquidsNatural Gas
total 6,975
7
Land-use Carbon EmissionsLand-use Carbon Emissions19991999
Land-use Carbon EmissionsLand-use Carbon Emissions19991999
382
1,081
-110653
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Tg
C/y
Pacific Developed RegionTropical AsiaChinaFormer Soviet UnionTropical AfricaNorth Africa & East AsiaEuropeTropical AmericaCanadaUnited States
total 2,066
Source: IPCC WG1 Third Assessment Report.
600
1,700
2,500
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
TgC
/yLow IPCC WG1 High
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, based on Houghton.
Range of Land-use Emissions
8
Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary EnergyGlobal Primary EnergyGlobal Primary EnergyGlobal Energy Production 1850 to 1994
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Exa
joule
s pe
r Yea
r
NuclearHydro GasOil (feedstock)OilCoalWood
Source: IIASA
9
Historical Fossil Fuel COHistorical Fossil Fuel CO22 Emissions 1751 to 2002Emissions 1751 to 2002
Historical Fossil Fuel COHistorical Fossil Fuel CO22 Emissions 1751 to 2002Emissions 1751 to 2002
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1751
1763
1775
1787
1799
1811
1823
1835
1847
1859
1871
1883
1895
1907
1919
1931
1943
1955
1967
1979
1991
Tg
C/y
Gas Flaring
Cement
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
10
Land-use Emissions 1850 to 2000Land-use Emissions 1850 to 2000Land-use Emissions 1850 to 2000Land-use Emissions 1850 to 2000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,00018
50
1857
1864
1871
1878
1885
1892
1899
1906
1913
1920
1927
1934
1941
1948
1955
1962
1969
1976
1983
1990
1997
Tg
C/y
Pacific Developed RegionTropical AsiaChinaFormer Soviet UnionTropical AfricaNorth Africa & East AsiaEuropeTropical AmericaCanadaUnited States
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, based on Houghton.
11
ENERGY RESOURCESENERGY RESOURCES
Will the Problem Go Away on Its Will the Problem Go Away on Its Own?Own?
ENERGY RESOURCESENERGY RESOURCES
Will the Problem Go Away on Its Will the Problem Go Away on Its Own?Own?
Won’t the limited conventional oil and gas resource force a transition in the near term to a world based on energy efficiency and renewable and nuclear energy forms?
12
Carbon Reservoirs
Coal5,000 to 8,000 PgC
Biomass~500 PgC
Soils~1,500 PgC
Atmosphere 800 PgC (2004)
Oil~270 PgC
N. Gas~260 PgC
Unconventional Fossil Fuels15,000 to 40,000 PgC
13
Scenarios of Future EmissionsScenarios of Future EmissionsScenarios of Future EmissionsScenarios of Future Emissions
Scenarios of future anthropogenic carbon
emissions to the atmosphere use complex energy-
economy-land-use models. Regional
Fertility & Survival
Rates
Regional Labor Force
Regional GDP
Regional Labor
Productivity
Energy Technologies
Reg
iona
l E
nerg
y D
eman
d
Regional Resource
Constraints
Regional Energy Supply
Technologies
Reg
iona
l E
nerg
y S
uppl
y
Regional Prices
World Prices and Quantities
GHG Emissions
Oil Production
Electric Power Generation
Liquids Refining
Hydrogen
N. Gas Production
Coal Production
Biomass Production
Gas Processing
Nuclear/Fusion
Hydro
Solar/SPS
Liquids Market
Biomass Market
Natural Gas Market
Hydrogen Market
Electricity Market
Wind
Coal Market
Synfuel Conversion
Synfuel Conversion
Residential Sector
Commercial Sector
Industrial Sector
Transport Sector
Residential Technologies
Commercial Technologies
Industrial Technologies
Transport Technologies
Liquids Market
Biomass Market
Natural Gas Market
Hydrogen Market
Electricity Market
Coal Market
Primary EnergyEnergy Transformation Energy End-Use
Transport Technologies
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Rail
Automobile
Bus
Air
Air
Truck
Rail
Water
Pipeline
Trucks
Motor Cycles
Water
Kerosene
Gasoline
Other Liquids
H2
Natural Gas
Solids
Electricity
Diesel
Energy Module Regional
demographics
Regional GDPDemand
•Crops•Livestock and fish•Forests products•Urban land
Demand for Commercial
Biomass
Demand for Biomass Energy
Supply•Crops•Livestock and fish•Forests products•Urban land
Water
Fertilizer
CO2
Climate
Markets•Land rent•Crop prices•Livestock prices•Forest product prices•Biomass prices
Production•Crops•Livestock and fish•Forests products•Biomass energy
Commercial Biomass
Land Use Change Emissions
Technology Land Use•Crops•Livestock and fish•Forests products•Urban•Unmanaged
Policies•Taxes•Subsidies•Parks•Regulation
Agriculture, Livestock, &
Forestry
Energy System
Coastal Zone System
Other Human Systems
Human Activities
Crops & Forest
Productivity
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
Hydrology
Unmanaged Ecosystems & Animals
Ecosystems
Atmospheric Chemistry
Ocean Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere
Climate System
OceanTemperature
Sea Level
Climate & Sea Level
14
Future Carbon Emissions Future Carbon Emissions ScenariosScenarios
Future Carbon Emissions Future Carbon Emissions ScenariosScenarios
Which of the literally thousands of parameters are most important to determining future emissions of greenhouse gases?
Uncertainty analysis conducted to explore precisely this question. Edmonds, Reilly, Gardner and Brenkert (1986) Scott, Sands, Edmonds, Liebetrau and Engel (2000) Others include Nordhaus and Yohe (1983), Hammitt
(1992), Manne and Richels (1993), Alcamo, et al. (1994), Dowlatabadi (1999), Gritsevskyi and Nakicenovic (1999)
15
Technology factors are themselves interrelated variables
Four key factors Labor productivity GDP Income elasticity of demand
for energy servicestechnologicalnature of the development process
Rate of energy technology change Demand and Supply
Population
Results From an Uncertainty Results From an Uncertainty AnalysisAnalysis
Results From an Uncertainty Results From an Uncertainty AnalysisAnalysis
Technology is the broad set of processes covering know-how, experience and equipment, used by humans to produce services and transform resources.(Not just devices)
16
DemographicsDemographicsDemographicsDemographics
Future global population is relatively certain in the near term, But uncertain in the long term. Forecasts of population growth have risen, peaked
and declined over the past 25 years. The present best guess population is about where it
was in 1978.
Future populations are aging rapidly.
17
5.71
17.33
10.71
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Bill
ions
of
Per
sons
1996 IIASA Low
1996 IIASA High
1996 IIASA Mid
Population Trajectories Are Population Trajectories Are FallingFalling
Population Trajectories Are Population Trajectories Are FallingFalling
Population estimates have declined recentlyMany scenarios show global populations declining at the end of the 21st century.
Lutz Lutz et alet al., 1997, 2001., 1997, 2001
5.71
17.33
10.71
4.29
8.41
14.35
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Bill
ions
of
Per
sons
1996 IIASA Low1996 IIASA High1996 IIASA Mid2001 IIASA Low2001 IIASA Mid2001 IIASA High
18
Increased Life ExpectancyIncreased Life ExpectancyExacerbates Aging and Increases Exacerbates Aging and Increases
PopulationPopulation
Increased Life ExpectancyIncreased Life ExpectancyExacerbates Aging and Increases Exacerbates Aging and Increases
PopulationPopulation
Both use TCF=1.9
Increased life expectancy would offset most of the population decline associate with decreasing total
completed fertility
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
6,000,000
6,500,000
7,000,000
7,500,000
8,000,000
8,500,000
19
90
20
05
20
20
20
35
20
50
20
65
20
80
20
95
Year
To
tal P
op
ula
tion
Med Low 95
Med Low 85
19
Labor ProductivityLabor ProductivityLabor ProductivityLabor Productivity
GDP = Labor productivity * Labor(hours)
Labor productivity growth rates are the major determinant of the scale of economic activity. They are relatively stable in the developed world. They are highly varied in the developing world.
Uncertainty in developing country labor productivity growth is a major source of uncertainty in carbon emissions.
20
Growth in labor productivityGrowth in labor productivityGrowth in labor productivityGrowth in labor productivity
21
Assumed advances in familiar technologies
• Fossil fuels• End use energy
• Nuclear• Renewables
The “Gap”
Less familiar technologies
• Carbon capture & disposal
Adv. fossil• H2 and adv.
transportation• Biotechnologies
Soils, Bioenergy, adv. Biological energy
Stabilizing COStabilizing CO22
Base Case and “Gap” TechnologiesBase Case and “Gap” Technologies
22
Range of Reference Case Fossil Fuel Range of Reference Case Fossil Fuel Carbon EmissionsCarbon Emissions
Range of all scenarios in the database
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Range of all scenarios in the database
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Glo
ba
l C
O2
Em
iss
ion
s (G
tC)
Fo
ss
il &
In
du
str
y
Source: IIASA
Median SRES 2100 emission = 14.4 PgC/yOpen literature 2100 emissions ~20 PgC/y
23
SRES Cumulative Emissions 1990 to 2100 (Pg)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600P
gC
Range 765 to 2,531 PgC
Median 1,500 PgC
24
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
450 ppm 550 ppm 650 ppm 750 ppm 1000 ppm
Range of Cumulative Carbon Emissions 1990 to 2100 for Alternative CO2 Concentrations,
ISAM Model Output
Cumulative Emissions and StabilizationCumulative Emissions and StabilizationCumulative Emissions and StabilizationCumulative Emissions and Stabilization
25
SRES Cumulative Emissions 1990 to 2100 (Pg)
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,5002,600
Pg
C
450 ppm
550 ppmv
650 ppmv750
ppmv
1000 ppmv
Shaded areas represent range of cumulative
emissions using ISAM (IPCC TAR)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
450ppm
550ppm
650ppm
750ppm
1000ppm
Cumulative Emissions and Cumulative Emissions and StabilizationStabilization
Cumulative Emissions and Cumulative Emissions and StabilizationStabilization
26
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Tg
C p
er Y
ear
A reference case with continued
technology development, and no climate policy.
A reference case with advanced technology development of carbon capture and H2, but no climate policy.
Emissions path that stabilizes CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm.
Technology Alone Won’t Technology Alone Won’t NECESSARILY Stabilize CONECESSARILY Stabilize CO22
Concentrations Concentrations Energy Related Carbon EmissionsEnergy Related Carbon Emissions
27
Hypothetical carbon tax, uniformly & efficiently applied over to everyone, everywhereAdvanced fossil fuel technologies cut cost by more than half
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
1990
US
$ pe
r T
onne
C
MiniCAM B2 550MiniCAM B2 AT 550
Policy Alone Will Not Necessarily Policy Alone Will Not Necessarily Deliver the Environmental Benefit at Deliver the Environmental Benefit at
Lowest CostLowest Cost
Policy Alone Will Not Necessarily Policy Alone Will Not Necessarily Deliver the Environmental Benefit at Deliver the Environmental Benefit at
Lowest CostLowest Cost
28
Land Use EmissionsLand Use EmissionsLand Use EmissionsLand Use Emissions
Land-use change emissions depend onPopulation IncomeTechnologyClimate (including water)Policy (including climate policy)
Land use emissions are uncertain, but
Generally lower than fossil fuel emissions.
29
IPCC SRES Reference Case Land-IPCC SRES Reference Case Land-Use Change Emissions ScenariosUse Change Emissions ScenariosIPCC SRES Reference Case Land-IPCC SRES Reference Case Land-Use Change Emissions ScenariosUse Change Emissions Scenarios
30
Land-Use Emissions are Sensitive Land-Use Emissions are Sensitive to Agricultural Productivity Growth to Agricultural Productivity Growth
Rates and to Energy PolicyRates and to Energy Policy
Land-Use Emissions are Sensitive Land-Use Emissions are Sensitive to Agricultural Productivity Growth to Agricultural Productivity Growth
Rates and to Energy PolicyRates and to Energy Policy
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Mill
ions
of t
ons
of c
arb
on p
er ye
ar
MiniCAM B2 550 0.0% Ag Productivity CC&D
MiniCAM B2 550 0.5% Ag Productivity CC&D
MiniCAM B2 550 1.5% Ag Productivity CC&D
Land-Use Change Carbon Emissions
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
TgC/y
ear
CTemperature stabilization scenario
MiniCAM B2 Reference scenario
31
COCO22 Concentrations ConcentrationsCOCO22 Concentrations Concentrations
Pre-industrial CO2 = 280 ppm
1958 Mauna Loa CO2 = 315 ppm
2004 Mauna Loa CO2 = 377 ppm
32
Final ThoughtsFinal ThoughtsFinal ThoughtsFinal Thoughts
Reference case fossil fuel and land-use change carbon emissions are dominated by the fossil fuel loading.There is significant uncertainty in CO2 loading of the atmosphere and oceans. FF emissions range in 2100 from
~3 PgC/y (SRES B1T MESSAGE) to >35 PgC/y (SRES A1C AIM)
Cumulative emissions 1990 to 2100 range from <775 Pg to (SRES B1T MESSAGE) >2,500 Pg (SRES A1C AIM)
The high end of these ranges are truncated in stabilization scenarios.
Dramatic changes in energy technology are needed over the century to realize the lower end of the range.