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10/12/2019 @ Fabien VAUCHELLES zelros.com / [email protected] / @fabienv http://bit.ly/ml-aismarttech

Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

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Page 1: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

10/12/2019 @

Fabien VAUCHELLESzelros.com / [email protected] / @fabienvhttp://bit.ly/ml-aismarttech

Page 2: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

INTRODUCTION

Page 3: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

I WILL TELL YOU THE TRUTH

Page 4: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

JACK KNEW HE WOULD DIE

Page 5: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

JACK KNEW HIS FUTURE

Page 6: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

JACK

LIFE DECISION PATH

Page 7: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

Men

Women

JACK

LIFE DECISION PATH

Page 8: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

Men

Women

JACK Child

Adult

LIFE DECISION PATH

Page 9: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

Men

Women

Child

Adult

1st class

3th class

JACK

LIFE DECISION PATH

Page 10: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

Men

Women

Child

Adult

1st class

3th class

GAME OVER

JACK

LIFE DECISION PATH

70%

Page 11: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

BACK TO MACHINE LEARNING

If you know the passengers list:

- Gender- Age- Ticket class- Does he survived ?

You can create a Decision Tree … … for this Supervised Problem !

Page 12: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

REAL LIFE IS DIFFERENT...

Page 13: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

KEEP COOL AND USE MACHINE LEARNING

Page 14: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

ZELROS // FABIEN VAUCHELLES

Speech Recognition

NLP

ComputerVision

Knowledge

AI coachInsurer Data Insurance ML / Predictive models Insurance Advisor

Page 15: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

What is Machine Learning

Page 16: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

ML SOLVE PROBLEMS WHICH ARE UNSOLVABLE BY CONVENTIONAL METHODS

Page 17: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

What is the type of problem

Page 18: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

TYPE OF PROBLEM

SUPERVISEDLEARNING

UNSUPERVISEDLEARNING

Page 19: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

SUPERVISED LEARNING

Men

Women

Child

Adult

1st class

3th class

GAME OVER

JACK

70%

Page 20: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

UNSUPERVISED LEARNING

age

satisfaction

Page 21: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

UNSUPERVISED LEARNING

age

satisfaction

Page 22: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

UNSUPERVISED LEARNING

age

satisfaction

Page 23: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

What is the goal of ML algorithms

Page 24: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

MINIMIZE THE ERROR

Page 25: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

How to start a ML problem

Page 26: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

AS DEVELOPWE USE TEST DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT

Page 27: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

THE PROCESS OF DATA SCIENCE

ANALYZE DATA

VALIDATE THE PREDICTION

TRAIN THE MODEL1 2

3

Page 28: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

THE PROCESS OF DATA SCIENCE

ANALYZE DATA

VALIDATE THE PREDICTION

TRAIN THE MODEL1 2

3

Page 29: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

THE PROCESS OF DATA SCIENCE

ANALYZE DATA

VALIDATE THE PREDICTION

TRAIN THE MODEL1 2

3

Page 30: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

THE PROCESS OF DATA SCIENCE

ANALYZE DATA

VALIDATE THE PREDICTION

TRAIN THE MODEL1 2

3

Page 31: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

THE PROCESS OF DATA SCIENCE

ANALYZE DATA

VALIDATE THE PREDICTION

TRAIN THE MODEL1 2

3

Page 32: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

THE PROCESS OF DATA SCIENCE

ANALYZE DATA

VALIDATE THE PREDICTION

TRAIN THE MODEL1 2

3

Page 33: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

ANALYZE DATA

Page 34: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

Do you speakData

Page 35: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

DATA LANGUAGE

NAME AGE CLASS DIED ?John 23 3 Yes

Marry 31 1 NoHenry 23 2 Yes

Nicolas 41 1 NoAnna 18 3 Yes

Dataset

Page 36: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

DATA LANGUAGE

NAME AGE CLASS DIED ?John 23 3 Yes

Marry 31 1 NoHenry 23 2 Yes

Nicolas 41 1 NoAnna 18 3 Yes

Feature

Page 37: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

DATA LANGUAGE

NAME AGE CLASS DIED ?John 23 3 Yes

Marry 31 1 NoHenry 23 2 Yes

Nicolas 41 1 NoAnna 18 3 Yes

Target

Page 38: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

DATA LANGUAGE

NAME AGE CLASS DIED ?John 23 3 Yes

Marry 31 1 NoHenry 23 2 Yes

Nicolas 41 1 NoAnna 18 3 Yes

Sample

Page 39: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

DEMO TIME !

Page 40: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

How to visualizea feature

Page 41: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

EXCEL WON’T HELP YOU ON BIG DATA

Page 42: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

YOU LOVE STATISTIC METHODS

Page 43: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

BOX PLOT

Median: 50%

Page 44: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

BOX PLOT

5% 25% 50% 75% 95%

Quantile 1 Quantile 2 Quantile 3 Quantile 4Outlier

Page 45: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

DEMOTIME !

Page 46: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

Why do we care of missing data

Page 47: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

ALGORITHMS DON’T LIKE MISSING DATA

Page 48: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

MISSING VALUES

10Nan20Nan30

Page 49: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

10Nan20Nan30

102030

MISSING VALUES

BAD !!!

Page 50: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

MISSING VALUES

10Nan20Nan30

Page 51: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

10Nan20Nan30

10020030

BAD !!!

MISSING VALUES

Page 52: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

Fill empty value with median: 20

10Nan20Nan30

1020202030

GOOD !!!

MISSING VALUES

Page 53: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

DEMO TIME !

Page 54: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

CREATE FEATURES

Page 55: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

Why do we createArtificial Features

Page 56: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

ARTIFICIAL FEATURES HELP ALGORITHMS TO HAVE BETTER PREDICTION

Page 57: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

I DON’T UNDERSTAND TEXT !

UNDERSTAND CATEGORIES

NAME GENDERJohn male

Marry femaleHenry male

Nicolas maleAnna female

Page 58: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

UNDERSTAND CATEGORIES

NAME GENDERJohn male

Marry femaleHenry male

Nicolas maleAnna female

NAME GENDERJohn 1

Marry 2Henry 1

Nicolas 1Anna 2

LabelEncoder

2 > 1 !!!

Page 59: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

UNDERSTAND CATEGORIES

NAME GENDERJohn male

Marry femaleHenry male

Nicolas maleAnna female

NAME GENDER_MALE GENDER_FEMALEJohn 1 0

Marry 0 1Henry 1 0

Nicolas 1 0Anna 0 1

OneHotEncoder

Page 60: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

DEMO TIME !

Page 61: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

TRAIN THE MODEL

Page 62: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

FIT & PREDICT

FIT MODEL PREDICT1 2

Page 63: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

FIT & PREDICT

FIT MODEL PREDICT1 2

Page 64: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

What can we predict

Page 65: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

CLASSIFICATION

Do we have survived on Titanic ?NAME AGE CLASS DIED ?John 23 3 Yes

Marry 31 1 NoHenry 23 2 Yes

Nicolas 41 1 NoAnna 18 3 ?

Page 66: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

REGRESSION

What is the price of the ticket ?NAME AGE CLASS FAREJohn 23 3 71

Marry 31 1 8Henry 23 2 53

Nicolas 41 1 7Anna 18 3 ?

Page 67: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

What algorithmcan we choose

Page 68: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

ALGORITHMS

DECISION TREE

COMPUTER VISION

LINEAR

CLUSTERING

BAYESIAN

NLP

Linear Regression

Logistic RegressionConvolutional Neural

Network

GAN

Recurrent Neural Network

Gaussian Naive Bayes

Multinomial Naive Bayes Bayesian Network

k-Means

k-Medians

Hierarchical Clustering

Perceptron

Random Forest

CATboost

XGBoostTF-IDF

Word2Vec

BERTGPT2

Siamese Network

LightGBM

Page 69: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

What is Linear Regression

Page 70: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

REGRESSION

y

X

h(X)=θ0+θ1X

/ LINEAR

Page 71: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

REGRESSION / POLYNOMIAL

y

X

h(X)=θ0+θ1X+θ2X2

Page 72: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

REGRESSION / POLYNOMIAL

y

X

h(X)=θ0+θ1X+θ2X2+θ3X

3

Page 73: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

REGRESSION / POLYNOMIAL

y

X

OVERFITTING !!!

h(X)=θ0+θ1X+θ2X2+θ3X

3

Page 74: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

REGRESSION / POLYNOMIAL

y

X

h(X)=θ0+θ1X+θ2X2

Page 75: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

REGRESSION / COST FUNCTION

J=∑(h(X)-y)2prediction real value

Sum of errors :

mcount

Page 76: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

REGRESSION / COST FUNCTION

h(X)=θ0+θ1X+θ2X2

Page 77: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

REGRESSION / COST FUNCTION

h(X)=θ0+θ1X+θ2X2+θ3X

3

Page 78: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

DEMO TIME !

Page 79: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

VALIDATETHE PREDICTION

Page 80: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

How to validatea trained model

Page 81: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

TRAIN & TEST

X

y

X

y

y_predictΔ

TEST (30%)TRAIN (70%)

Page 82: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

CROSS VALIDATION

X

y

X

y

y_predictΔ

TEST (30%)TRAIN (70%)

x5

random

Page 83: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

PREDICT

X

y_predict

NEW DATA

Page 84: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

DOES JACK SURVIVE ?

Page 85: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

DEMO TIME !

Page 86: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

RESOURCES

● Coursera Machine Learninghttps://www.coursera.org/learn/machine-learning

● Coursera Deep Learninghttps://www.coursera.org/specializations/deep-learning

● Kagglehttp://www.kaggle.com

Page 87: Fabien VAUCHELLES - Java2Days€¦ · Men Women Child Adult 1st class 3th class GAME OVER JACK LIFE DECISION PATH 70%

ANY QUESTIONS ?

zelros.com / [email protected] / @fabienvhttp://bit.ly/ml-aismarttech