Upload
nguyennga
View
216
Download
3
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Fabian Adelt – Johannes Weyer SKIN 3 Workshop, Budapest, May 2014
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Content
1. The issue 2. Basic principles 3. Purpose and concept of SimCo 4. Simulation framework in detail 5. Results from previous work (SUMO-S)
2
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
The issue: Innovation policy
Interventions into complex socio-technical systems Goals: stabilization: avoid breakdown, improve performance change an existing system
Problem: where / how / when to intervene?
Innovation policy needs knowledge about the functioning of complex socio-technical systems effects of interventions types of actors population
3
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Design principles
Model of sociological explanation (Hartmut Esser) James Coleman‘s „bathtube“
4
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Design principles
Model of sociological explanation (Hartmut Esser) James Coleman‘s „bathtube“
5
logic of situation
logic of selection
logic of aggregation
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Design principles
Model of sociological explanation (Hartmut Esser) James Coleman‘s „bathtube“
Two levels (and interdependencies between them) system dynamics (macro level)
emergent phenomenon actors‘ choices (micro level)
decision making, based on subjective expectations (range of view, „bounded rationality“)
different types of actors: rational egoist, norm follower, emotional man etc.
Impact of innovation policy and interventions on macro behaviour?
6
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS)
Agent State Transitions
Rules Actions Behaviour
Environment Information Structure
Time
Quelle: Van Dam et al. (2013:58)
7
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS)
Agent State Transitions
Rules Actions Behaviour
Environment Information Structure
Time
Quelle: Van Dam et al. (2013:58)
A micro-founded ABMS can implement a sociological explanation!
8
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
general model of • networked infrastructure system
• energy, transportation, information • nodes, edges, agents,
technologies
• micro-macro-interaction • dynamic behaviour in time • innovation policy / governance
• instruments of intervention • management, control, regulation ...
9
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Agents‘ tasks
move in the network pursue individually
rated goals visit (selected) nodes use resources and
technologies stay within limits
10
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Decision making based on sociological theory of action
subjective expected utility actions: (individually) rated goals: probabilities: indicate how far action i serves goal j depend on state of the network and the actor’s position possibly influenced by interventions
11
Choose the action that fits your goals best!
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Type A 10 3 1 5
reach green nodes
behave eco-friendly
act money-saving
move fast
SEU
direct path
1 1 0 0 13
via gray node
0.5 0 1 1 11
Decision making based on sociological theory of action Example
12
Rated goals
Act
ions
Probabilities?
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Type A 10 3 1 5
reach green nodes
behave eco-friendly
act money-saving
move fast
SEU
direct path
1 1 0 0 13
via gray node
0.5 0 1 1 11
Decision making based on sociological theory of action Example
13
Rated goals
Act
ions
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Type B 8 3 5 3
reach green nodes
behave eco-friendly
act money-saving
move fast
SEU
direct path
1 1 0 0 11
via gray node
0.5 0 1 1 12
Decision making based on sociological theory of action Example
14
Rated goals
Act
ions
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Type B 8 3 5 3
reach green nodes
behave eco-friendly
act money-saving
move fast
SEU
direct path
1 1 0 0 11
via gray node
0.5 0 1 1 12
Decision making based on sociological theory of action Example
15
Rated goals
Act
ions
Empirical data micro-foundation
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Nodes
(intermediate) targets for agents lifetime costs/benefits (for agents,
nodes and “external”) multi-dimensional features
memory / payoffs status rights-of-use (technology) limits (short and long term)
16
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Edges
directed paths between nodes lifetime costs/benefits (for agents,
edge and “external”) multi-dimensional features
memory / payoffs rights-of-use (Technology) limits (short and long term)
17
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Technologies
Needed to pass nodes and edges lifetime purchase price costs/benefits-factor multi-dimensional absolute costs/benefits depend
on node/edge and technology
18
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Aggregating single actions
Complex systems huge number of actors Actors influencing their environment and each other Emergent macro behaviour macro result may differ from a (individually or politically)
desired behaviour
Control “… is an intentional intervention into a social or socio-
technical system aiming at changing it in an intentional way.” (Adelt et al. 2014)
by changing boundary conditions parameters like rights-of-use, costs, limits …
without knowing the result in advance
19
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Innovation policy / How to change the system
new technologies or change comparative
costs of existing technologies (by tax changes, subsidies etc.)
change the topology of
the net
create incentives
electric vehicles vs. SUVs add technologies change their parameters
build new streets, or streets usable for some technologies only
bike-parking facilities, charging stations for electric vehicles change node parameters
20
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
21
To which extent is the system affected (or even changed) by interventions?
Depends on the type of intervention and
the strategies of the different types of actors.
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Simulation of Urban Mobility (SUMO-S)
simulation of a traffic guidance system
modes of governance strong control soft control self-coordination
Adelt/Weyer/Fink, 2014: Controlling complex
systems. In: Ergonomics. Adelt/Weyer/Fink, 2014: Steuerung komplexer
Systeme. In: Soziale Welt.
22
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
System stability (low numbers are better)
mix of drivers mean values of rows
mode of governance
Mix0 (only
obedient)
Mix1 (realistic)
Mix2 (more
obedient)
Mix3 (more single-
minded)
(Mix1 to Mix3)
strong control 5,858 8,011 9,340 9,308 8,886
soft control 6,301 10,187 5,820 9,591 8,533
self-coordination 8,500 10,064 10,181 10,603 10,283
mean value of columns 6,886 9,421 8,447 9,834
23
Adelt– Weyer | 2014
technische universität dortmund
Department of Economics and Social Sciences Technology Studies Group
Conclusion: SimCo
abstract representation of infrastructure systems ABMS with a sociological micro-foundation actor types, empirical foundation dynamic, emergent behaviour examine the effects of interventions in order to gain
more knowledge about the functioning of complex systems depends on actors’ reaction measure micro and macro performance
24