F Con Ten s 27 - blog.wavetrack.comblog.wavetrack.com/media/images/130627_The-Elliott-Wave-Compas… · An n o u n c e m e n t: To our exisTing ellioTT Wave Compass subsCribers and

Announcement: To our exisTing ellioTT Wave Compass subsCribers and To neW visiTors, WelCome To The Free Week!

We’ve opened the doors once again to some of the most insightful and concise elliott Wave forecasts available. the big difference betWeen Wave track’s compilation of elliott Wave patterns and others that you may have seen before is the illustrative completion of each pattern and an added overlay of fib-price-ratios to verify each forecast. this detailed creation of pattern rhythms highlights some of the most consistent scenarios to guide you in your investment and trading decision process. Whether your interests are stock indices, currencies, interest rates or commodities, this report combines them all offering a macro-look across the investment horizon.

As A bonus, our existing eW-compass subscribers are activated for our institutional eW-forecast database during the free Week With access to u.s. stock indices, gold and silver Whilst neW registrants/visitors have access to the eW-compass. the main-vieW area of the eW-compass softWare has a ‘specials’ tab to the right of each chart – select this and vieW the one and a half hour video of elliott Wave forecasts that Were recorded last year as the outlook for 2013. if you haven’t already seen this, take the opportunity to do so as this Will be one of the last occasions prior to its removal With the neW update coming soon. it seems that the financial landscape is again changing but the ‘inflation-pop’ remains on course forecasting continued higher highs for u.s. stock indices once the current counter-trend has ended. We are pleased you have joined us in this free Week promotion and don’t forget to contact us using the ‘help desk’ located on our main Webpage if you have any questions. sincerely, peter goodburn

The Free Week experienCe!27Th June 2013(data through 26thJune 2013)

summary

stock indices – The S&P 500 continues to trade as the outperforming global index even during this counter-trend decline that began from the May high of 1687.18. This is evident given the negative news f low enveloping the emerging market indices and anything related to them (refer to Emerging Market Index forecast dated 21st of March – contact us for details). The S&P’s counter-trend decline has been forecast towards two downside targets in recent weeks – the fib. 38.2% retracement level of the Nov.’12 upswing that measures towards 1546.51 and the fib. 50% retracement level at 1505.48.

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summary » ..................................................... page 1s & p 500 – daily » - Count #1 ..................... page 3s & p 500 – 180 mins. - » Count #1 .............. page 4dow Jones – 180 mins. - » Count #1 ......... page 5nasdaq – 180 mins. - » Count #1 ................ page 6eurostoxx 50 – 360 mins. - » Count #1 ...... page 7FTse 100 – 360 mins. - » Count #1 ............. page 8hang seng – daily - » Count #1 ................. page 9kospi – daily - » Count #1 ........................ page 10india-Cnx nifty 50 » – daily - Count #1 .. page 11nikkei 225 – 180 mins. - » Count #1 ..... page 12us$-index – 540 mins. - » Count #1 ........ page 13

us$-index – daily - » Count #2 ............... page 14eur vs. usd – 540 mins. - » Count #1 ... page 15eur vs. usd – daily - » Count #2 ........... page 16sTlg vs. usd – 540 mins. - » Count #1 . page 17sTlg vs. usd – Weekly - » Count #2 ..... page 18us$ vs. Yen – daily - » Count #1 ............ page 19us 10 » yr Yield –180 mins. - Count #1 .... page 20de 10 » yr Yield – 240 mins. - Count #1 ... page 21gold – daily - » Count #1 ......................... page 22silver – daily - » Count #1 ........................ page 23Crude oil (nymex) – daily - » Count #1 page 24brent Crude oil – daily - » Count #1 ..... page 25

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Table oF ConTenTs {click on TOC text!}

The ellioTT Wave prinCiple

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Basis short-term price development so far, the decline is confirmed as unfolding into a double zig zag pattern with preferred downside targets towards the lower 1505.48 level. Each downswing so far has stopped at exact price measuring levels and this increases the probability of limiting downside targets towards 1505.48+/- whilst significantly reducing the likelihood of a systemic implosive collapse. The Eurostoxx 50 Index has reached its downside targets already but the zig zag pattern is now extended into a double sequence to synchronise its action with the benchmark S&P 500 with lower targets towards 2325.53-2296.66. The Hang Seng Index has unfolded lower from its Jan.’13 high into a three wave zig zag in line with forecasts described during the last few months but there is now an inherent danger this accelerates even lower with the underperforming emerging market indices with the potential of even breaking below the Oct.’11 low of 16170.35. Its cousin, the Kospi Index looks identical in its Elliott Wave pattern structure. The Nikkei 225 has reached interim downside targets to the fib. 38.2% corrective level of 12415.85 and has begun a shorter-term counter-trend upswing – but once completed, an attempt towards the fib. 50% area is expected prior to a resumption of the larger uptrend.

currencies (fx) – The US$ index is on its way to upside targets at 8318 to complete a counter-trend rally from the June low of 8049. Once achieved, a reversal signature would confirm downside continuation in the weeks ahead, with unchanged objectives measuring to 7812 to complete the first zig zag within a double sequence. The ‘alternate’ count projects much higher targets in the months to come as it suggests a triple zig zag sequence in progress from the May ‘11 low of 7270 where the finalising ‘C’ wave of the last zig zag in progress from 8050 is measured to ultimate upside at 8836-91. This would translate into a decline for the Euro/US$ with idealised support towards 1.2396, measured by a fib. 38.2% extension of the 2013 downswing from 1.3711 to 1.2746. The more likely scenario for the Euro, however, depicts a reversal from current levels to be followed by upside acceleration in the months ahead, with interim targets towards 1.4057 and ultimate objectives remaining unchanged to 1.4408. Although Sterling traded into the forecast 1.5367+/- area with a traded low of 1.5344, the price rejection was not sufficient to guarantee 3rd wave upside acceleration. This implies that Sterling could be engaged in a more protracted counter-trend sequence from the 1.5752 high – by relabeling the 1.5008-1.5752 advance as a 1st wave within the larger 1-2-1 sequence from the March ’13 low of 1.4832, we can account for this by

describing the 1.5752-1.5344 decline as the first leg of the 2nd wave. Short-term upside to 1.5547 should be followed by a finalising sell-off to 1.5191-80 to complete the 2nd wave and initiate accelerative 3rd of 3rd advances afterwards. Still, we should not be negligent of the possibility that Sterling breaks below 1.5008 and, ultimately, below the March low of 1.4832. This would trigger much lower downside objectives to 1.4228 prior to an advance to 1.6100 later this year but is assigned ‘alternate’ status. Meanwhile, US$/Yen is about to finalise its short-term counter-trend correction from 9501 towards extended upside targets at 9992-10032 – a reversal from there would trigger a sell-off to measured support at 8880 basis a fib. 50% retracement of the preceding 7602-10374 advance.

bonds (interest rAtes) – Long-dated government bond yields continue their uptrends that originated from the July ’12 lows. Secondary corrections balancing the first wave advance into last September’s high ended in early May – for US10yr yields, the low formed at 1.612 and is labelled primary wave ②. A larger 3rd wave advance is engaged although a temporary pause in this advance is now expected. The advance from 1.612 depicts a smaller five wave sequence ending at this week’s high of 2.667 and so a compensatory corrective decline is now

expected before the upside resumes. A fib. 38.2% retracement level would pull levels back to test 2.201% although this could do more. Germany’s DE10yr yield runs in exact synchronisation with its treasury counterpart forming a secondary low in early May at 1.151%. A prolonged 3rd wave advance is now engaged to the upside that is expected to last throughout the remainder of this year. Shorter-term, its early May advance from 1.151 has completed a smaller five wave sequence to this week’s high of 1.858 and so a counter-trend correction is expected before the uptrend resumes.

commodities – Recent downside targets for gold towards 1232.00+/- have already been achieved although the five wave impulse structure in the price decline from last October’s high of 1796.30 remains incomplete, and so this translates into more downside targets for the next several weeks. Cutting this entire decline following price expansion in April and its successive rally into a golden section using a fib. 61.8% ratio projects two downside targets for gold’s completion – the first towards 1096.48 and the second to 1093.15. This convergence provides the next most powerful support that not only completes the Oct.’12 decline but also the complex double three pattern from the all-time high of 1921.50.

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The monthly chart updates the 56-month cycle – this timed the beginning of the bull market from its low in Aug.’99 and its last occurrence is at the Oct.’08 low of 680.75. The next occurrence is in July ’13. Combined with daily composite cycles that form a low into late June onwards, there remains a high probability of a sudden reversal upswing once the pattern has been fulfilled. Silver has also extended its decline although its overall pattern from its April ’11 high of 49.82 remains within the ‘normalised’ limits that measures a counter-trend double zig zag pattern. Extending the first zig zag to 26.08 projects the second ending at 17.48 but the Oct.’12 decline from 35.40 will probably need a little more downside room to complete a five wave expanding-impulse sequence – downside targets revised lower to 16.58. Crude oil staged a reversal signature at the recent high of 99.21 and has begun a five wave impulse decline with downside targets to either 87.47 or 84.05. Both are part of counter-trend declines from the Sep.’12 high of 100.42 but it is worth noting that a major directional upswing began earlier from the June ’12 low of 77.28 and this forms the most important level of its uptrend. Once this shorter-term decline has completed during the next several weeks, we expect Crude oil to accelerate sharply higher to resume the larger uptrend.

Brent oil is also in its final stages of a corrective decline that dates back to the Sep.’12 high of 117.95 – an expanding f lat pattern remains with downside targets to 94.21-93.04. Like its counterpart, upon completion Brent oil is expected to accelerate sharply higher.

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fig 1 S & p 500 – Daily - Count #1

summAry – Intermediate wave (3) began its advance from the June ’12 low of 1266.74 and is shown subdividing into a smaller five wave expanding-impulse pattern labelled in minor degree, i-ii-iii-iv-v. Minor wave iii. completed at the May high of 1687.18 with wave iv. now staging a counter-trend decline that has been extended to the fib. 50% retracement prior to a resumption of the larger uptrend – for details, see fig. #2. Looking ahead, the advance as cycle wave C is far from complete – this is part of the ‘inflation-pop’ scenario. description – Cycle wave C’s advance that began the concluding sequence of the larger zig zag from the Oct.’11 low of 1074.77 is shown unfolding into a five wave expanding-impulse sequence, subdividing into primary degree, ①‑②‑③‑④‑⑤. Wave ① completed at 1292.66 and was followed by wave ② declines to 1158.67. Subsequent wave ③ advances are in progress, subdividing into a visible (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) sequence of intermediate degree. Ultimate upside objectives for cycle wave C are projected to 2239.02 by a fib. 161.8% extension of the initial 1-2-1 sequence (1074.77-1422.38).

s & p 500 – dailY - CounT #1

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»The ellioTT Wave prinCiple


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fig 2 S & p 500 – 180 Mins. - Count #1

summAry – With the S&P trading into a low of 1560.33 on Monday, it has become clear that the entire correction from 1687.18 is likely to extend towards lower targets at 1505.48 during the next weeks, a fib. 50% retracement of the 1343.35-1687.18 upswing. Shorter-term, a counter-trend rally is expected, with idealised upside to 1606.57, the fib. 50% resistance measured according to the recent sell-off from 1654.19. Once achieved, await a reversal signature to confirm downside continuation. This forecast is revised above 1654.19.

description – Minor wave iv. that began from 1687.18 is shown unfolding into a double zig zag sequence, subdividing into minute degree, a-b-c-x-a-b-c. Although the first zig zag completed almost perfectly at the golden ratio cut of the fib. 38.2% retracement, the recent strong sell-off from 1654.19 to 1560.33 has brought back into play a downside continuation to the fib. 50% retracement at 1505.48. Confirmation for this deeper level comes also from the outlook for European and Asian markets suggesting a downwards extension.

s & p 500 – 180 mins. - CounT #1

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fig 3 Dow Jones – 180 Mins. - Count #1

summAry – The Dow Jones traded into a low of 14551.20 this Monday and is now engaged in a counter-trend rally prior to continuation lower next month. Although the S&P 500’s ultimate downside targets to complete the 4th wave in progress from the May high has been lowered to the fib. 50% support, the Dow Jones’s slight outperformance during the last weeks allows to maintain original objectives to 14288.90, the fib. 38.2% retracement of the preceding 12471.50-15542.40 advance. This forecast is revised above 15340.00.

description – Minor wave iv.’s four is shown unfolding into a double zig zag sequence of minute degree, a-b-c-x-a-b-c. The first zig zag completed at 14844.20 and was followed by wave x counter-trend rallies towards 15340.00. Wave a of the secondary zig zag completed at this week’s low of 14551.20 and is currently followed by wave b advances to 14939.90, the fib. 50% resistance. Once achieved, finalising wave c is projected lower to 14288.90, the fib. 38.2% retracement of minor wave iii. three.

doW Jones – 180 mins. - CounT #1

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fig 4 Nasdaq – 180 Mins. - Count #1

summAry – The Nasdaq continued lower towards 3294.90, close to min. downside targets at 3286.50, but the substructure suggests one additional low in the weeks ahead with ultimate objectives remaining unchanged towards 3236.90-31.10. Shorter-term, the current rally is counter-trend in nature and likely to extend towards 3390.20, the fib. 50% retracement of the 3488.30-3294.90 decline. Await a reversal signature from there to trigger the finalising decline that will complete the entire correction from the May high of 3532.00. This forecast is revised above 3488.30.

description – Minor wave iv. four is shown to unfold into a double zig zag sequence, subdividing into minute degree, a-b-c-x-a-b-c. The first zig zag completed at 3378.20 and was followed by wave x counter-trend advances to 3488.30. A reversal from there has sparked the secondary zig zag that is projected to ultimate downside at 3231.10 by a fib. 100% extension of the first. This converges with the fib. 38.2% support of minor wave iii. three.

nasdaq – 180 mins. - CounT #1

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fig 5 Eurostoxx 50 – 360 Mins. - Count #1

summAry – Downside acceleration into a low of 2494.54 has put into doubt a reversal from current levels that would confirm the completion of the entire counter-trend correction from the May high of 2851.48. Moreover, the correlation with U.S. stock indices suggests the downswing is not over yet. Therefore, downside has been extended to show an idealised completion towards 2300.00+/- during the next weeks. Shorter-term, the current rally is projected towards 2625.29, the fib. 38.2% resistance of the decline from 2851.48, or even higher towards 2667.05, the fib. 50% retracement. The revision level remains at 2851.48.

description – The counter-trend correction in progress form the May ’13 high of 2851.48 is labelled as intermediate wave (2) and has been modified to show a double zig zag sequence, subdividing into minor degree, a-b-c-x-a-b-c. The first zig zag just completed at 2494.54, close to the fib. 61.8% extension of wave a. – now, wave x. rallies are expected towards 2625.29 or 2667.05. Once a reversal has occurred, the secondary zig zag is projected to downside at 2325.53, the fib. 61.8% support of intermediate wave (1). A fib-correlative 100% equality ratio between the first and secondary zig zag (basis wave x. completion at the fib. 38.2% resistance) shows a convergence with objectives measuring to 2296.66.

eurosToxx 50 – 360 mins. - CounT #1

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fig 6 Ftse 100 – 360 Mins. - Count #1

summAry – The substructure of the recent decline from 6397.33 to 6023.44 suggests it unfolded into a three price-swing sequence. This implies immediate upside potential to 6300.00+/- to finalise a counter-trend ‘running flat’ pattern that began from 6205.71 and also explains the less-than-expected amplitude of the 6205.71-6397.33 advance as a sufficient correction to the preceding decline from 6875.62. Subsequent declines are then measured to 5824.76 during the next month to finalise the entire correction from 6875.62.

description – By assuming lower downside targets during the next weeks, the original ‘overlap’ level at 5989.07 (the March ’12 high) will be penetrated. This necessitates an adjustment of the larger outlook, identifying the June ’12 low of 5229.76 as having completed primary wave ② and the subsequent advance to 6875.62 labelled as intermediate wave (1) of primary wave ③. Thus, the decline from 6875.62 is interpreted as intermediate wave (2) that is shown unfolding into a single zig zag sequence, a-b-c. Wave a. completed at 6205.71 and is followed by wave b. counter-trend rallies that are projected to 6299.29-6335.74 as a running flat pattern. Subsequent wave c. declines are measured to 5824.76 by a fib. 61.8% extension of wave a. – this converges with the fib. 61.8% retracement of intermediate wave (1).

FTse 100 – 360 mins. - CounT #1

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fig 7 Hang Seng – Daily - Count #1

summAry – Failure to react from the important downside support at 20112.05-19999.57 has raised serious doubts about the possibility of a reversal signature. This has far-reaching implications as a comparison with most U.S. and European indices suggests a bearish bias for the next several weeks – and the probability is low that the Hang Seng’s sequence as it has unfolded so far from the Feb.’13 high of 23944.74 could come to a halt soon and stop above the critical June ’12 low of 18056.40. Therefore, this count has been introduced that labels the sequence from the Oct.’11 low of 16170.35 to the Feb.’13 high as wave ‘B’ within a larger single zig zag pattern.

description – The zig zag that is unfolding as minor wave b. is a counter-trend correction to the 2008-10 advance labelled wave a. Subdividing into minute degree, a-b-c, wave a completed at the Oct.’11 low of 16170.35 and was followed by a 16-month wave b advance to 23944.74. Now, wave c declines are shown in progress with ultimate downside measured to 14591.85 by a fib. 23.6% extension of wave a.

hang seng – dailY - CounT #1

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fig 8 Kospi – Daily - Count #1

summAry – As in the case of the Hang Seng, the Kospi’s failure to respond at forecast levels has led us to abandon the scenario that depicted a 1-2 sequence from the Sep.’11 low of 1644.11. Instead, the upswing from 1644.11 to 2057.28 is interpreted as counter-trend in nature which implies a break below 1644.11 during the next several weeks. Basis a fib. 38.2% extension of the 2231.47-1644.11 range, ultimate downside is measured to 1463.03.

description – The decline from the April ’11 high of 2231.47 is labelled as minor wave b. that is unfolding into a single zig zag sequence, subdividing into minute degree, a-b-c. Wave a completed at 1644.11 and was followed by a deep (fib. 76.4%) counter-trend rally as wave b towards 2057.28. Subsequent wave c now in progress is measured to ultimate downside objectives at 1463.03 basis a fib. 38.2% extension of wave a.

kospi – dailY - CounT #1

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fig 9 India-cnx Nifty 50 – Daily - Count #1

summAry – The five wave sequence from the 6229.45 high has extended even lower but the last three trading days were characterised by consecutive higher lows that implies a counter-trend rally could be underway. In this case, upside is measured to 5811.10, the fib. 38.2% retracement prior to continuation lower in the weeks ahead. Ultimate downside objectives are measured to 5282.30-5191.90. The revision level remains at 6229.45.

description – Minor wave ii. two that began from 6229.45 is unfolding into a single zig zag sequence, subdividing into minute degree, a-b-c. Wave a is about to complete at current levels and forecast to be followed by wave b rallies to 5811.10, the fib. 38.2% resistance. Subsequent declines as wave c are then measured to 5282.30 basis the fib. 61.8% retracement of minor wave i. one but could extend to 5191.90, a level measured by the fib. 61.8% extension of the 6229.45-5566.25 decline.

india-Cnx niFTY 50 – dailY - CounT #1

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fig 10 Nikkei 225 – 180 Mins. - Count #1

summAry – A comparison with the outright futures contract has revealed the possibility that wave ‘C’ of the decline from 15942.60 might have completed at the 13th June low of 12415.85. This changes the subsequent sequence from an expanding flat into a single zig zag – yet short-term upside targets remain towards the fib. 50% retracement, now at 14069.15. Once achieved, await a reversal signature to confirm downside continuation during the next weeks – ultimate targets measure to 11284.90.

description – The current decline labelled as intermediate wave (4) is shown unfolding into a double zig zag sequence, subdividing into minor degree, a-b-c-x-a-b-c. The first zig zag completed at the 12415.85 low –subsequent wave x. counter-trend advances are expected to unfold into a single zig zag with ultimate targets measured to the fib. 50% resistance at 14069.15. The secondary zig zag to follow is then forecast to downside at 11284.90, a fib. 38.2% extension of the first zig zag that comes close to the fib. 50% retracement of intermediate wave (3).

nikkei 225 – 180 mins. - CounT #1

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fig 11 Us$-index – 540 Mins. - Count #1

summAry – The US$ index is closing in on original short-term upside targets at 8318 – a reversal from there would confirm downside continuation during the next month with idealised targets remaining unchanged towards 7812. Seen from the larger perspective, the decline from 8449 is seen as a double zig zag sequence, with the first zig zag’s conclusion measured to 7812. This forecast is revised above 8449.

description – Minor wave e. that began from 8449 has been changed into a double zig zag sequence, subdividing into minute degree, a-b-c-x-a-b-c. Wave a of the first zig zag completed at the June low of 8049 and is currently followed by wave b advances to 8318. A reversal from there will trigger wave c declines in the weeks ahead, with ultimate downside measured to 7812 basis a fib. 61.8% extension of wave a. This will complete the first zig zag and initiate wave x counter-trend rallies prior to the secondary zig zag decline later.

us$-index – 540 mins. - CounT #1

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fig 12 Us$-index – Daily - Count #2

us$-index – dailY - CounT #2

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summAry – no immediate change. In this ‘alternate’ count, the counter-trend advance that began from the April ’11 low of 7270 is shown as incomplete. It is expected to unfold into a triple zig zag pattern labelled a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c in minute degree with ultimate upside targets measured towards 8836-91 during the next several weeks. From a larger perspective, this upswing represents minor wave d. of a larger contracting triangle pattern. Once completed, wave minor wave e. is expected to begin the final decline to complete the triangle pattern.

description – An eleven price-swing sequence as a triple zig zag is expected to terminate near the 8836-91 price area. These levels are measured by extending double zig zag sequence (7270-8410) by a fib. 38.2% ratio towards 8891 and this price level converges with a fib. 61.8% ratio extension of minute wave b of the final third zig zag pattern to 8836. Once these resistance levels will be tested await a reversal signature to begin declines as a minor wave e. that will complete the larger triangle pattern.

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fig 13 Eur Vs. Usd – 540 Mins. - Count #1

summAry – The strong sell-off from Wednesday’s high of 1.3418 suggests the Euro completed an entire five wave sequence from the May low of 1.2796. Basis the larger perspective, this is labelled as the first leg within the 3rd wave that is ultimately projected to 1.4057 during the next several weeks. Shorter-term, the sell-off from 1.3418 as a smaller second wave is measured to 1.3006 basis the substructure of the decline. Await a reversal signature there to validate the resumption of the larger upswing. This forecast is negated below 1.2796.

description – Minor wave c. that began from the April ’13 low of 1.2746 is unfolding into a five wave expanding-impulse pattern, subdividing into minute degree, 1-2-3-4-5. Wave 1 to 1.3201 was followed by an expanding flat pattern for wave 2 towards 1.2796. Subsequent advances are labelled as part of wave 3 that is projected to idealised upside at 1.4057 during the next several weeks. A fib. 23.6% correction for wave 4 to 1.3749 is forecast to converge with a golden ratio cut of the entire 1.2746-1.4408 range prior to the finalising wave 5 upswing to 1.4408.

eur vs. usd – 540 mins. - CounT #1

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fig 14 Eur Vs. Usd – Daily - Count #2

summAry – no immediate change. In this ‘alternate’ count, the current sell-off from 1.3418 is seen as having begun a five price-swing decline towards ultimate downside at 1.2396 in the months ahead. Seen from the larger perspective, this decline is interpreted as the finalising part of a counter-trend pattern in progress from the 2013 high of 1.3711. Once 1.2396 is approached, await a reversal signature to validate a sustained advance for the rest of the year, with idealised upside projected to 1.4408.

description – Intermediate wave (E) that began from the 2012 low of 1.2042 is shown unfolding into a single zig zag sequence, subdividing into minor degree, a-b-c. Wave a. advances to 1.3711 are being followed by wave b. declines to 1.2396 that are measured by a fib. 38.2% extension of the initial sell-off from 1.3711 to 1.2746. Ultimate upside for subsequent wave c. is measured to 1.4408 by a fib. 38.2% extension of wave a.

eur vs. usd – dailY - CounT #2

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fig 15 Stlg Vs. Usd – 540 Mins. - Count #1

summAry – Original downside support to 1.5367 has been achieved with a traded low of 1.5344 but the lack of a sufficient price rejection suggests a downside continuation during the next weeks. This implies that the 1.5008-1.5752 advance be labelled as a 1st wave within the larger 1-2-1 sequence from the March ’13 low of 1.4832. Thus, the decline from 1.5752 as another 2nd wave is expected to take a corrective structure extending towards ultimate downside at 1.5191-80 before staging a reversal and subsequent accelerative advances. This forecast is revised by immediate advances above 1.5752.

description – Minuette wave [ii] that began from the June high of 1.5752 is shown unfolding into a single zig zag sequence subdividing into sub-minuette degree, (a)-(b)-(c). Wave (a) completed at Monday’s low of 1.5344 and is currently followed by wave (b) advances projected to the fib. 50% retracement at 1.5547. Finalising wave (c) declines are then measured to 1.5191, the fib. 38.2% extension of wave (a). This level converge with the fib. 76.4% retracement of minuette wave [i]. Once achieved, await a reversal signature that would trigger 3rd of 3rd acceleration.

sTlg vs. usd – 540 mins. - CounT #1

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summAry – This new ‘alternate’ count would be promoted to ‘preferential’ status should Sterling fail to continue higher and instead break below the May ’13 low of 1.5008 and, more importantly, exceed the March ’13 low of 1.4832. It describes sell-off towards 1.4228 during the next months followed by an advance towards 1.6100 into early 2014. This will complete a larger descending triangle in progress from the Jan.’09 low of 1.3504 and trigger a finalising decline towards 1.2936 afterwards. This forecast is revised above 1.6379.

description – Primary wave Ⓒ in progress from the 2007 high of 2.1160 is shown unfolding into a five wave expanding-impulse sequence, subdividing into intermediate degree, (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). Wave (1) declines to 1.9338 were followed by wave (2) advances to 2.0155 that preceded a dramatic 3rd wave collapse towards 1.3504. Subsequent wave (4) is shown unfolding into a descending triangle that is projected towards 1.6100. The finalising wave (5) is then measured to ultimate downside targets at 1.2936.

sTlg vs. usd – WeeklY - CounT #2

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fig 16 Stlg Vs. Usd – Weekly - Count #2


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fig 17 Us$ Vs. Yen – Daily - Count #1

summAry – Extended targets to 9864 have been met with a traded high of 9871 but basis substructure of the advance from 9379 that is acting out as wave ‘C’ of an expanding flat sequence from 9501 higher targets towards 9992-10032 are now most likely. A reversal from there will then trigger the finalising decline to complete the entire correction from 10374 – ultimate downside remains towards 8880, the fib. 50% retracement of the preceding advance from the Feb.’12 low of 7602 to the 10374 high.

description – Primary wave ① is unfolding into a five wave impulse sequence, subdividing into intermediate degree, (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). Wave (4) is currently in progress to ultimate downside at 8880, the fib. 50% retracement of wave (3). Once achieved, await a reversal signature that would confirm wave (5) advances to 10807, measured by a fib. 61.8% correlative ratio between waves (1)-(3) and (5).

us$ vs. Yen – dailY - CounT #1

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fig 18 Us 10yr Yield –180 Mins. - Count #1

summAry – Original upside objectives to 2.607 have been achieved with a traded high of 2.667 and the subsequent price rejection has significantly increased the probability of a completion of the entire upswing from the May low of 1.612. To validate this, a reversal signature is now required that would trigger declines in the next weeks ahead – interim objectives measure towards 2.283, ultimate targets project to 2.074, the fib. 50% retracement. A break above 2.667 would increase the likelihood of upside continuation towards 3.153%.

description – The advance from the May ’11 low of 1.612 resumes the larger uptrend as primary wave ③. Intermediate wave (1) of primary wave ③ has been extended to ultimate upside at 2.607 basis a fib-correlative 61.8% ratio of minor waves i.-iii. added to the completion of iv. The recent 2.667 high fulfils all requirements for a completion of intermediate wave (1) – wave (2) declines are now forecast to take the shape of a single zig zag sequence with idealised downside objectives to 2.074, the fib. 50% retracement. By cutting the 2.667-2.074 range by the golden section, we obtain interim targets to 2.283 during the next several trading days. laTesT: basis the 10/10-spread between US10yr and DE10yr yields, the US10yr yield may complete only at the fib. 38.2% retracement level at 2.201.

us 10yr Yield –180 mins. - CounT #1

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fig 19 De 10yr Yield – 240 Mins. - Count #1

summAry – Germany’s DE10yr yield slightly exceeded original upside targets to 1.767 with a traded high of 1.858, but by applying a fib-correlative ratio within the substructure of the 1.151 upswing, the actual high can almost be pinpointed. This increases the likelihood of a reversal signature which would confirm downside continuation during the next weeks – interim objectives measure to 1.605, ultimate targets to 1.462, the fib. 50% retracement of the 1.151 advance.

description – The July ’12 low at 1.120 completed a 31-year downtrend from the 1981 high. A new multi-year uptrend has since begun with primary wave ① as a leading-expanding diagonal ending at the Sep.’12 high of 1.728 and the correction of this as primary wave ② completing at the early May low of 1.151. Subsequent intermediate wave (1) originally forecast to 1.767 has achieved a slightly higher target towards 1.858 that can be measured by a fib-correlative 61.8% ratio of minor waves i-iii added to wave iv.

de 10yr Yield – 240 mins. - CounT #1

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fig 21 Gold – Daily - Count #1

summAry – (spot bullion) The convergence of fib-price-ratios that coincided with gold’s April ’13 low at 1321.50 with silver’s lower low in May at 20.17 forming into measured downside targets combined with record speculative shorts in the latest COT survey maintained a more immediate bullish forecast. But last week’s break below these levels swept this aside (see Update Alert, last Thursday, June 20) as next levels projected gold to 1230.95. This level has just been tested within the last hour, but the overall five wave pattern in decline since last October ’12 from 1796.30 remains incomplete. This suggests even lower levels can be expected during the next several weeks.

description – The overall decline from the 2011 high of 1921.50 (1912.70) is now too deep to remain an intermediate degree fourth wave as the ‘overlap’ has just occurred of wave one’s high of 1227.20. Basis the entire uptrend in progress from the July ‘99 low, this decline is assigned a higher degree 4th wave retracement, cycle wave 4. This allows a deeper correction than previously measured. The overall structure of the decline from the Sep.’11 high of 1921.50 (orthodox top 1912.70) maintains a double three pattern labelled in primary degree, Ⓐ‑Ⓑ‑Ⓒ‑Ⓧ‑Ⓐ‑Ⓑ‑Ⓒ. The final downswing as primary wave Ⓒ from the Oct.’12 high of 1796.30 will only be deemed completed once a satisfactory five wave impulse pattern has unfolded. This began in a series of three 1-2 sequences and therefore it is necessary to complete in a series of three 4-5 sequences. Three lower lows are required for this and so more downside room is needed for its completion. Price expansion of this impulse ended into the April low of 1321.50 and was followed by a correction to 1487.62. These two levels are the golden section cut of fib. 61.8% that converge ultimate downside targets to complete the impulse pattern between 1096.48-1093.15 and so this becomes our optimum downside target.

gold – dailY - CounT #1

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fig 22 Silver – Daily - Count #1

summAry – (spot bullion) Silver has also extended its decline although its overall pattern from its April ’11 high of 49.82 remains within the ‘normalised’ limits that measures a counter-trend double zig zag pattern. We have taken the precaution of also raising the degree of trend that depicts this decline as cycle wave ‘X’ within a developing upward triple zig zag pattern in progress from the Feb.’93 low of 3.48 - see weekly and monthly time-series in the EW-Forecast database or contact the Live Update Forum conference-call line for updates.

description – The pattern in the decline from 49.82 remains unchanged, unfolding into a double zig zag – extending the first to 26.08 projects the second ending at 17.48 but the Oct.’12 decline from 35.40 will probably need a little more downside room to complete a five wave expanding-impulse sequence. Within this decline, the April ’13 low at 22.05 is extended by a fib. 61.8% ratio and this projects downside targets to 16.46. A fib. 61.8% retracement of the preceding cycle degree zig zag that unfolded higher from the Oct.’08 low of 8.39 into the 49.91 high projects support at 16.58 and so this forms a close convergence level and therefore highlights the most prominent level that ends this decline.

silver – dailY - CounT #1

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fig 22 Crude Oil (nymex) – Daily - Count #1

summAry – The 99.21-92.67 decline reveals a five price-swing sequence implying downside continuation. Shorter-term, however, the counter-trend rally from 92.67 seems incomplete with an idealised finalisation towards 97.63. A reversal from there will then trigger downside continuation as wave ‘C’ of the larger expanding flat sequence in progress from the May ’13 high of 97.17. Ultimate downside objectives remain to 87.47 – an ‘alternate’ scenario would even allow for lower targets towards 84.05. This forecast is revised only by immediate advances above 99.21.

description – Primary wave Ⓒ is shown unfolding into a five wave expanding-impulse sequence, subdividing into intermediate degree, (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). Wave (1) completed at the Sep.’12 high of 100.42 and was followed by wave (2) declines to 84.05. The subsequent upswing to 98.24 is labelled as minor wave i. one and the following sell-off to 85.61 as wave ii. two. The next advance to 97.17 is then labelled as minute wave 1 that is counter-balanced by an expanding flat sequence for wave 2 with idealised downside to 87.47, the fib. 85.4% support. A reversal from there would trigger 3rd of 3rd of 3rd accelerative advances whilst a break lower would change the entire pattern from 100.42 into a 2nd wave counter-trend sequence that is unfolding into a horizontal flat (see red text).

Crude oil (nYmex) – dailY - CounT #1

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fig 23 Brent Crude Oil – Daily - Count #1

summAry – no immediate change. As in the case of Crude, Brent oil failed to achieve original upside objectives to 108.04. Instead, it staged a reversal from 106.67 and has since already lost 6%. This significantly decreases the likelihood of an attempt towards 108.04 and instead re-labels the decline from 118.29 as a conventional five wave expanding-impulse sequence. The sell-off from 106.67 is seen as the 5th wave within this sequence and is measured towards ultimate downside at 94.21 basis a fib-correlative 61.8% ratio of waves 1-3 and 5. This converges with original downside at 93.53-04 basis the larger pattern.

description – Minor wave ii. two that began from the Sep.’12 high of 117.95 is shown unfolding into an expanding flat pattern, subdividing into minute degree, a-b-c. Wave a declines to 104.76 were followed by wave b advances to 118.29. Now, wave c declines are underway that have been modified to show a conventional five wave expanding-impulse pattern. Ultimate downside to 93.53-04 is measured by a fib. 100% extension of wave a and a fib-correlative equality ratio between the 3rd and 5th wave of the diagonal. This converges with the substructure fib-price ratios within wave c that measure towards 94.21.

end | fin | ende

brenT Crude oil – dailY - CounT #1

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WaveTrack International and its related publications apply R.N.Elliott’s ‘The Wave Principle’ to historical market price activity which categorises and interprets the progress of future price patterns according to this methodology. Whilst it may be reasonable to deduce a course of action regarding investments as a result of such application, at no time or on any occasion will specific securities, futures, options or commodities of any kind be recommended for purchase or sale. Publications containing forecasts are therefore intended for information purposes only. Any opinion contained in these reports is only a statement of our views and are based on information we believe to be reliable but no guarantee is given as to its accuracy or completeness. Markets are volatile and therefore subject to rapid an unexpected price changes. Any person relying on information contained in these reports does so at their own risk entirely and no liability is accepted by WaveTrack in respect thereof. © All rights are copyrights to WaveTrack. Reproduction and / or dissemination without WaveTrack’s prior consent is strictly forbidden. We encourage reviews, quotation and reference but request that full credit is given.

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WaveTrack International and its related publications apply R.N.Elliott’s ‘The Wave Principle’ to historical market price activity which categorises and interprets the progress of future price patterns according to this methodology. Whilst it may be reasonable to deduce a course of action regarding investments as a result of such application, at no time or on any occasion will specific securities, futures, options or commodities of any kind be recommended for purchase or sale. Publications containing forecasts are therefore intended for information purposes only. Any opinion contained in these reports is only a statement of our views and are based on information we believe to be reliable but no guarantee is given as to its accuracy or completeness. Markets are volatile and therefore subject to rapid an unexpected price changes. Any person relying on information contained in these reports does so at their own risk entirely and no liability is accepted by WaveTrack in respect thereof. © All rights are copyrights to WaveTrack. Reproduction and / or dissemination without WaveTrack’s prior consent is strictly forbidden. We encourage reviews, quotation and reference but request that full credit is given.

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