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Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on ourwebsite www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures.

INDIA

Macquarie Top 10 Focus List

Company Ticker Rec.Price(Rs)

TP(Rs) Upside

Ranbaxy RBXY IN OP 362 550 52%JSPL JSP IN OP 241 350 45%L & T LT IN OP 828 1163 40%ITC ITC IN OP 338 421 24%Idea Cellular IDEA IN OP 176 215 22%Coal India COAL IN OP 303 360 19%ICICI Bank ICICIBC IN OP 938 1115 19%HCL Tech HCLT IN OP 1104 1300 18%M&M MM IN OP 851 1000 17%Tata Motors TTMT IN OP 345 380 10%

Source: Macquarie Research, Oct 2013; Prices as ofclose on Oct 3, 2013

Key Index Performance (%)Index/Sector YTD 5-Day

SENSEX 30 Index 2.3 -0.1BSE IT Index 41.3 2.6

Auto Index -0.5 1.6Healthcare Index 18.0 1.2BSE Banks Index -19.1 1.0BSE Realty Index -42.0 0.9Consumer Dur. Index -23.7 -0.1Oil & Gas Index -2.1 -0.1Capital Goods Index -26.3 -0.5Metal Index -22.2 -1.2NSE Infra Index -15.1 -1.3BSE FMCG Index 14.6 -1.7Power Index -23.1 -2.2

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, Oct 2013;Prices as of close on Oct 3, 2013

Fund flows

US$ mLatest(Oct 1)

1WTotal

1MTotal

YTDTotal

FII -14 -59 1904 13389Domestic MFs -65 -39 -467 -2991FII Net Stock Futures -32 -77 -685 3015FII Net Index Futures 38 47 1348 -952FII Net Derivative Buys 92 21 66 10686

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, Oct 2013

Analyst(s)Rakesh Arora, CFA+91 22 6720 4093 [email protected] Bhattacharya+91 22 6720 [email protected]

4 October 2013Macquarie Capital Securities India (Pvt)Ltd

Eye on IndiaFacts fight backEvent

Q2FY14 earnings preview:Its not so bad, after all. Our analysts predict

revenue growth of 10% YoY and EBITDA growth of 11% with EBITDA

margins expanding ~40bps. PAT growth is expected to be more muted at 3%

due to a high interest burden and mark to market losses on forex. The market

is geared up for a washed out quarter and this could surprise.

Export oriented sectors dominate: IT sector is a standout, followed byAutos (Tata Motors), Media, Pharma and Consumer. Cement sector is

expected to be the worst performer. Buy HCL Tech, Ranbaxy, Tata Steel

and Reliance on results. Sell Ambuja Cement, Ultratech and SBI.

Impact

Revenue growth to buck the trend: After 5 quarters of downtrend in

revenue growth, we estimate revenue growth to clock 10% growth driven by

all round good performance by sectors except Cement and Infra. IT sector is

the leader with 23% revenue growth, but Autos, Media, Consumer, Pharma

and Properties etc may show revenue growth in mid teens. Clearly both

exports and rural demand is doing much better than expected.

EBITDA margins remain stable: EBITDA margins have largely stabilisedaround 20% level. Despite the low demand, companies have done well to

hold on to operating margins. Rupee depreciation has come as a blessing in

disguise and companies are looking to export the surplus production to beat

low domestic demand.

Net profit lagging behind: Net profit growth has been scraping the bottom as

companies deal with forex MTM losses as well as rising interest costs.

However, with the rupee now looking to stabilise, we expect net profit growth

to be stronger from Q3.

Selective earnings upgrades: The overall market is still witnessing earnings

downgrades with earnings revision ratio well below 1. Cement and Banks,

including the private sector, are going through a sharp downgrade cycle.

However, a few bright spots can be found in IT, Pharma and Telecom. Media

and Metals & Mining sectors are also seeing some upgrades.

Standout stocks: HCL Tech, Idea Cellular, Sun Pharma and Reliance

Industries are seeing EPS upgrades, while Maruti, SBI, BHEL and SAIL

continue to see sharp downgrades.

Outlook

Markets can gain momentum with results: Infosys kick starts the results

on 11th

and will likely set a positive tone for the market. Exports are picking up

and so is rural demand. Whether Modi mania translates into votes in the

upcoming state elections is the key question in Nov. Overall, the market

seems set to continue its upward journey. Buy on the dips.

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Macquarie Research Eye on India

4 October 2013 2

For the quarter ended September 2013, our analysts are estimating 10% YoY revenue growth,

11% YoY EBITDA growth and 3% YoY PAT growth for our coverage universe (ex oil & gas). The

large divergence in bottom-line growth vis--vis top-line and operating income growth suggests

that high interest costs and impact from currency volatility may have had a role to play. In

particular, stocks with maximum impact below the operating level are Adani Power, JSW Steel

and SBI (due to higher provisions). Excluding these, profit growth improves to 6.3% yoy.

Overall, only 4 sectors are expected to contribute significantly to overall net profit growth these

are telecom, IT, consumer and autos. Amongst financials, PSU banks are expected to be a drag

on growth with a 6% decline in profits while private banks are expected to show 12% increase in

profits. On the negative side, cement, power (Adani, NTPC), real estate and pharma (CIPLA,

Ranbaxy, Wockhardt) would likely be the worst performing sectors on profit growth. Amongst

these, only cement is expected to show a decline in revenues on a yoy basis.

Our analysts are forecasting EBITDA margins (ex oil & gas, fin) to improve by ~40bps, with

positive contribution primarily from power, media, telecom, consumer, autos, IT and metals and

negative contribution from real estate, cement, pharma, and infra/capital goods.

For Sensex, we expect aggregate revenue and EBITDA to grow at 10% YoY while profits are

expected to grow 2%, dragged down by M&M, BHEL, JSPL, CIPLA, ONGC, SBI and NTPC with

maximum impact from the last 3 stocks. Excluding these three, profit growth improves dramaticallyto 10% yoy. For Sensex too, EBITDA margins (ex-ONGC, GAIL, financials) are expected to be flat

compared to the previous year.

Fig 1 Estimated Q2FY14 Revenue Growth by sector(Macquarie coverage ex-Oil & gas)

Fig 2 Estimated Q2FY14 PAT Growth by sector(Macquarie coverage ex-Oil & gas)

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2013 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2013

Fig 3 Estimated Q2FY14 EBITDA Growth (% yoy)(Macquarie coverage ex-Oil & gas)

Fig 4 Estimated Q2FY14 Change in EBITDA Margin(Macquarie coverage ex-Oil & gas, Financials)

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2013 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2013

23%

16% 15%13%

12% 12%10%

6% 5% 4%

1%

-7%

10%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

ITAutos

Media

Financials

Property

Consumer

Pharma

Power

Telec

om

Metals

Infra

/Cap

Gds

Cement

Total(ex-Oil)

Revenue Growth (% yoy)

29%

21%

16% 14%

3%

-1%-3%

-6%

-12% -14%-17%

-23%

3%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Telec

om IT

Consumer

Autos

Financials

Media

Metals

Infra/Cap

Gds

Pharma

Property

Power

Cement

Total(ex-Oil)

PAT Growth (% yoy)

27% 25% 24%

17%

13%10% 10%

6%3% 2%

-8%

-21%

11%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

ITAutos

Media

ConsumerPo

wer

Financials

Telec

om

Metals

Pharma

Property

Infra/Cap

Gds

Cement

Total(e

x-Oil)

EBITDA Growth (% yoy) 207178

142112 95 83

32

-129-163

-333 -354

36

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Power

Media

Telecom

Consume

r

Autos

IT

Metals

Infra/Cap

Gds

Pharm

a

Cemen

t

Propert

y

Total(ex-Oil,Fin

)

Change in EBITDA Margins (yoy, bps)

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4 October 2013 3

Top-line weakness continues to offset stabilising margins

Fig 5 Quarterly Revenue and PAT Growth - Macquarie Coverage Universe (ex-Oil & Gas)

Source: Macquarie Research, October 2013

Fig 6 Quarterly EBITDA Margins - Macquarie Coverage Universe (ex-Oil & Gas, Fin)

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2013

Fig 7 Trend in Revenue, EBITDA and PAT BSE-100 (ex Oil, Fin), 4Q Rolling

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2013

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec-

10

Mar-

11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec-

11

Mar-

12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec-

12

Mar-

13

Jun-

13

Sep-

13

Revenue Growth PAT Growth% yoy

20.4%

22.3%

21.3%21.6%

19.5% 19.8%

20.5%20.7%

19.8% 19.4%

20.4% 20.6%

20.0%

22.6%

17.0%

18.0%

19.0%

20.0%

21.0%

22.0%

23.0%

24.0%

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec-

10

Mar-

11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec-

11

Mar-

12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec-

12

Mar-

13

Jun-

13

Sep-

13

EBITDA Margins (ex-Oil & Gas, Financials)

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Jun-05

Oct-05

Feb-06

Jun-06

Oct-06

Feb-07

Jun-07

Oct-07

Feb-08

Jun-08

Oct-08

Feb-09

Jun-09

Oct-09

Feb-10

Jun-10

Oct-10

Feb-11

Jun-11

Oct-11

Feb-12

Jun-12

Oct-12

Feb-13

Jun-13

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

19.0%Net Profit Growth (lhs) Revenue Growth (lhs) EBITDA Margin (rhs)

4Q Rolling, % yoy 4Q Rolling, %

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4 October 2013 4

while currency impact and interest costs dent bottom-line growth

Fig 8 Nifty earnings vs currency movements Fig 9 Volatile currency fuelling forex losses

Source: Capitaline, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2013 Source: Capitaline, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2013

Fig 10 BSE-100 (ex-Fin) Interest Expense Growth

Source: Capitaline, Macquarie Research, October 2013

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Dec-01 Jun-03 Dec-04 Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

Nifty Qtr Earnings Growth (% yoy, LHS)

INR/USD (RHS, Qtr Avg)

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

Jun-08 Mar-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

Forex Loss (lhs, Rs bn)

Change in INR/USD (rhs)

INR depreciating

INR appreciating

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

Mar-02 Sep-03 Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12

BSE-100 (ex-Fin) Interest Expense growth

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4 October 2013 5

leading to earnings downgrades

Net Revisions Ratio (x) = (Total Upgrades) / (Total Downgrades)

Fig 11 Earnings Revisions Ratio for BSE-100 Index

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2013

Fig 12 Autos Fig 13 Media

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2013 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2013

Fig 14 Consumer Staples Fig 15 Energy


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Jan-05 Oct-05 Jul-06 Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13

EPS Revisions Ratio (BSE-100)

3-Month Moving Average


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13

Autos

3 Month Moving Average

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40


Media


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00


Consumer Staples


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60


Energy


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4 October 2013 6

Fig 16 Real Estate Fig 17 Private Sector Banks


Fig 18 PSU Banks Fig 19 NBFCs


Fig 20 Healthcare Fig 21 Industrials


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20


Real Estate


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00


Private Banks


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20


PSU Banks


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60


NBFCs


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00


Health Care


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20


Industrials


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4 October 2013 7

Fig 22 Information Technology Fig 23 Cement


Fig 24 Metals and Mining Fig 25 Telecom


Fig 26 Utilities


0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00


Information Technology


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00


Cement


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20


Metals & Mining


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50


Telecom


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60


Utilities


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4 October 2013 8

Fig 27 Coverage Stocks with high Positive and Negative 3-Month % EPS Revisions

Company Bloomberg Code3M % EPS

Revision 3M Stock PerfMkt Cap(US$ m) Rating Price Price Target

POSITIVE REVISIONS

Large Cap (>US$2bn)

HCL Technologies HCLT IN 20.6% 45.4% 12435 Outperform 1104 1300Idea Cellular IDEA IN 16.1% 21.8% 9416 Outperform 176 215Sun Pharmaceuticals SUNP IN 11.5% 19.6% 20106 Outperform 601 675Wipro WPRO IN 11.3% 38.0% 19298 Neutral 485 480Tata Consultancy Services TCS IN 10.7% 35.7% 64027 Outperform 2024 2200Cairn India CAIR IN 10.3% 11.5% 10082 Outperform 327 378Infosys Technologies INFO IN 8.6% 24.2% 28067 Outperform 3039 3550Reliance Industries RIL IN 3.8% -4.2% 44167 Outperform 846 1100Lupin LPC IN 3.5% 10.8% 6231 Neutral 861 860Tata Motors TTMT IN 3.0% 19.0% 17940 Outperform 345 380

Mid Cap (between US$500m and US$2bn)MindTree MTCL IN 19.2% 49.4% 838 Outperform 1247 1250Hexaware Technologies HEXW IN 15.9% 47.2% 623 Outperform 129 150D.B. Corp. DBCL IN 8.7% 5.8% 751 Outperform 253 310Reliance Capital RCAPT IN 5.6% -9.0% 1304 Outperform 329 430Mphasis MPHL IN 4.8% 23.3% 1556 Outperform 458 500

Small Cap (below US$500m)Welspun Corp WLCO IN 403.7% -33.6% 130 Outperform 31 59Punj Lloyd PUNJ IN 42.1% -34.3% 129 Underperform 24 17Gujarat Pipavav Port GPPV IN 15.3% 0.0% 359 Outperform 46 59Aban Offshore ABAN IN 9.2% -12.5% 158 Neutral 225 222Persistent Systems PSYS IN 6.6% 27.9% 416 Neutral 643 620

NEGATIVE REVISIONS

Large Cap (>US$2bn)

JSW Steel JSTL IN -14.7% 15.6% 2978 Outperform 762 850Maruti Suzuki India MSIL IN -15.1% -12.0% 6895 Neutral 1412 1350Bharat Heavy Electricals BHEL IN -15.9% -19.6% 5687 Underperform 144 133State Bank of India SBIN IN -16.1% -17.7% 18348 Neutral 1659 1550Steel Authority of India SAIL IN -16.6% 4.8% 3655 Neutral 55 48Jindal Steel and Power JSP IN -16.9% 7.7% 3637 Outperform 241 350Indian Oil IOCL IN -20.8% -12.0% 8161 Outperform 208 300Siemens India SIEM IN -24.1% -13.9% 2834 Underperform 492 386Tata Power TPWR IN -24.9% -8.2% 3112 Outperform 81 95Ranbaxy Laboratories RBXY IN -42.5% 11.6% 2475 Outperform 362 550

Mid Cap (between US$500m and US$2bn)Union Bank of India UNBK IN -13.2% -39.9% 1117 Underperform 116 80Wockhardt WPL IN -14.0% -56.0% 835 Neutral 472 750L&T Finance Holdings Ltd LTFH IN -14.0% -17.2% 1843 Underperform 66 49Unitech UT IN -15.7% -29.9% 689 Underperform 16 12ABB India ABB IN -20.9% -11.0% 1895 Underperform 553 380IDBI IDBI IN -22.3% -17.0% 1320 Underperform 61 40Canara Bank CBK IN -24.6% -38.7% 1687 Underperform 236 167Jaiprakash Associates JPA IN -44.1% -32.6% 1347 Underperform 38 38

Ashok Leyland AL IN -105.3% -27.1% 647 Outperform 15 15Adani Power ADANI IN -247.9% -22.2% 1541 Underperform 33 26

Small Cap (below US$500m)Nagarjuna Construction Co NJCC IN -10.0% -32.4% 77 Underperform 19 14Indiabulls Real Estate IBREL IN -10.1% -17.5% 389 Underperform 57 48Godrej Properties GPL IN -10.2% -27.5% 490 Outperform 361 506Jaypee Infratech JPIN IN -13.0% -33.5% 370 Outperform 17 27Jubilant Lifesciences Limited JOL IN -16.1% -41.7% 204 Outperform 79 100

Anant Raj Industries ARCP IN -16.3% -24.2% 200 Outperform 42 120

Jindal Saw Limited JSAW IN -17.3% -26.8% 201 Outperform 45 76Gujarat NRE Coke GNC IN -17.9% -8.3% 133 Outperform 13 18HDIL HDIL IN -23.0% -6.1% 264 Outperform 39 43India Cements ICEM IN -29.6% -11.4% 264 Neutral 53 45


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Fig 28 Q2FY14 Estimates by Company

Company name Net sales (Rs m) EBITDA (Rs m) PAT (Rs m)

Q2FY14E % chg (YoY) % chg (QoQ) Q2FY14E % chg (YoY) % chg (QoQ) Q2FY14E % chg (YoY) % chg (QoQ)

AutomobilesAshok Leyland 25,368 -23% 7% 381 -89% 64% (1,160) -181% 15%Bajaj Auto 50,849 6% 4% 10,678 17% 6% 8,508 15% 6%Eicher Motors Ltd. 16,300 10% -2% 1,650 48% -1% 900 36% -3%Hero MotoCorp 55,947 9% -9% 6,378 34% -11% 4,916 12% -10%Mahindra & Mahindra 85,848 -7% -12% 11,021 -14% -21% 8,231 -16% -10%Maruti Suzuki India 99,540 23% 0% 10,028 97% -14% 5,004 120% -21%Tata Motors 540,068 24% 15% 71,900 35% 16% 26,822 29% 55%Total 873,920 16% 7% 112,036 25% 5% 53,222 14% 16%

Banks**Axis Bank 46,746 19% 1% 26,193 20% -8% 13,463 20% -4%Bank of Baroda 40,485 10% -2% 24,527 3% 0% 11,120 -15% -5%Bank of India 35,880 16% -3% 19,891 7% -9% 7,625 153% -21%

Canara Bank 29,503 15% -9% 15,526 21% -18% 6,874 4% -13%HDFC Bank 60,539 19% -5% 29,972 41% -9% 18,162 16% -1%HDFC 21,220 22% 18% 19,606 23% 20% 13,888 21% 18%ICICI Bank 60,226 11% -4% 34,242 7% -10% 21,824 12% -4%IDBI 22,452 16% 2% 13,571 15% 3% 3,900 -19% 27%IndusInd Bank Ltd. 10,526 31% -8% 5,602 33% -13% 2,996 20% -11%IDFC 8,362 -2% -18% 6,936 -4% -21% 4,266 -10% -23%Kotak Mahindra Bank 26,098 1% -4% 6,298 -20% -43% 3,953 -22% -38%L&T Finance Holdings Ltd 5,247 32% 6% 3,577 36% 22% 1,752 22% 21%LIC Housing Finance 5,099 25% 1% 4,270 26% -3% 2,975 22% -4%Mahindra & Mahindra Fin. Services 6,911 20% 2% 4,484 20% 2% 2,332 21% 14%Power Finance 18,824 28% 2% 18,387 28% 1% 12,656 22% 6%Punjab National Bank 49,936 10% -5% 26,684 5% -10% 11,504 8% -10%Reliance Capital 15,654 -16% 19% 1,960 -64% 30% 1,515 -62% 19%Rural Electrification 16,881 25% -4% 16,008 25% -3% 11,303 18% -2%Shriram Transport Finance 9,981 10% 1% 7,638 7% 4% 3,342 -1% -2%State Bank of India 159,982 12% 0% 74,291 1% -2% 28,572 -22% -12%Union Bank of India 26,163 9% -2% 13,020 2% -8% 4,949 -11% -12%Yes Bank 10,252 28% -7% 6,202 28% -9% 3,452 13% -14%Total 686,967 13% -2% 378,883 10% -6% 192,425 3% -6%

CementAmbuja Cements 25,118 -2% -10% 3,782 -13% -13% 2,439 1% -5%

Associated Cements 20,343 -6% -13% 3,608 -30% -27% 2,207 -27% -32%Grasim Industries 58,274 -11% -15% 11,041 -19% -13% 4,939 -20% -19%India Cements 44,516 -5% -10% 8,139 -19% -22% 4,059 -26% -40%Ultratech Cements 12,251 2% 3% 1,646 -41% -2% (24) -104% -109%Total 160,503 -7% -12% 28,215 -21% -17% 13,620 -23% -28%

InfrastructureABB India 19,000 6% 10% 1,140 18% 37% 563 9% 40%Adani Ports and SEZ 13,980 33% -5% 8,947 25% -5% 4,438 74% 6%Bharat Heavy Electricals 90,000 -18% 35% 12,176 -36% 213% 8,173 -36% 76%Crompton Greaves India 32,166 10% 2% 1,608 18% 11% 881 109% 47%Cummins India 10,326 -5% 4% 1,755 -12% 9% 1,451 -10% -6%Gujarat Pipavav Port 1,166 24% -4% 520 31% -5% 304 114% -14%Jaiprakash Associates 34,767 16% 5% 8,279 2% 6% 622 -50% 238%Larsen & Toubro 141,094 7% 12% 12,657 -10% 18% 8,772 1% 16%Nagarjuna Construction Company 14,000 5% 2% 1,120 0% 3% 111 38% 5%

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Punj Lloyd 28,000 3% -7% 2,800 2% 5% 190 206% -53%Siemens India 37,127 10% 40% 2,042 1 34 1,044 215% 127%Thermax 12,501 5% 45% 1,250 3% 54% 882 -3% 76%Total 434,127 1% 14% 54,293 -8% 33% 27,430 -6% 30%

ConsumerDabur 17,566 15% 7% 3,166 18% 29% 2,355 16% 32%Emami 4,075 13% 6% 780 22% 32% 730 19% 26%Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. 19,204 20% 11% 2,754 11% 22% 1,813 15% 27%Hindustan Unilever 69,419 10% 2% 10,919 12% 1% 8,370 4% -5%ITC 80,938 12% 9% 31,738 19% 15% 21,574 17% 14%Marico 12,870 11% -7% 1,745 15% -24% 1,065 24% -31%United Spirits 24,164 8% 9% 3,314 23% 13% 1,312 113% 36%Total 228,236 12% 6% 54,416 17% 11% 37,220 16% 9%

Information TechnologyHCL Technologies 78,965 30% 14% 18,862 40% 16% 13,065 48% 8%Hexaware Technologies 6,106 20% 14% 1,485 35% 17% 1,061 26% 8%Infosys Technologies 127,233 29% 13% 33,971 18% 14% 26,698 13% 12%Mindtree 7,609 28% 17% 1,598 21% 34% 1,198 66% -12%Mphasis 16,784 28% 9% 3,137 16% 12% 2,133 2% 11%Persistent Systems 4,071 25% 14% 957 7% 23% 518 16% -9%Rolta India 6,279 34% 3% 2,418 14% 6% 665 5% -38%Tata Consultancy Services 208,292 33% 16% 62,417 41% 21% 44,410 26% 17%Wipro 105,353 -1% 8% 23,179 8% 15% 17,636 10% 9%Total 560,691 23% 13% 148,024 27% 17% 107,385 21% 12%

MetalsHindalco Industries 68,020 10% 18% 4,379 -15% 8% 3,249 -9% -31%National Aluminium Company 14,955 -6% -3% 2,216 1022% 72% 1,680 3415% 5%Hindustan Zinc 32,690 16% 11% 17,330 24% 19% 17,524 14% 6%Coal India 152,194 4% -8% 27,010 -6% -32% 30,748 0% -18%Gujarat NRE Coke 3,686 11% 13% 643 -41% 778% (77) -146% -309%NMDC 24,049 -8% -16% 16,237 -16% -15% 14,202 -15% -10%Jindal Steel and Power 40,987 -12% -27% 13,119 -17% -14% 5,237 -37% -31%JSW Steel 103,510 9% 2% 17,418 17% 0% 1,268 -82% 132%Tata Steel 342,741 1% 5% 31,755 37% -14% 2,407 166% -79%

Steel Authority of India 118,805 11% 18% 9,170 -4% 14% 4,658 -14% 3%Total 901,636 4% 2% 139,278 6% -11% 80,897 -3% -15%

PetroleumAban Offshore 9,863 3% 11% 5,313 9% 11% 848 72% 13%Bharat Petroleum 666,399 17% 13% 16,639 -69% 78% 9,539 -81% 535%Cairn India 50,900 15% 25% 37,612 10% 29% 31,744 37% 2%Essar Oil Ltd. 259,190 23% 15% 4,196 -60% -52% (5,083) -584% -197%GAIL India 133,160 16% 3% 16,475 7% 9% 9,129 -7% 13%Hindustan Petroleum 529,780 8% 2% (7,805) -127% -13% (15,905) -168% -9%Indian Oil 1,278,893 21% 16% 46,231 -60% 497% 17,874 -81% 151%Oil and Natural Gas Corporation 227,088 14% 18% 114,088 10% 34% 46,957 -20% 17%Oil India 25,584 2% 22% 11,584 -8% 42% 8,358 -12% 37%Petronet LNG 108,286 45% 29% 4,210 4% 6% 2,412 -23% 7%Reliance Industries 1,004,333 11% 15% 72,390 -6% -8% 53,912 0% 5%Total 4,293,476 16% 14% 320,933 -30% 43% 159,784 -52% 78%

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PowerAdani Power 26,000 3% 3% 6,000 242% 15% (7,000) -69% 42%CESC Limited 14,527 8% 1% 3,269 5% 2% 1,358 0% 4%JSW Energy 22,116 7% -11% 7,914 37% -14% 2,745 52% -24%NTPC 150,783 -8% -4% 40,783 -8% -5% 24,870 -21% -2%Power Grid Corporation of India 36,221 17% 2% 31,320 17% 2% 11,203 10% 8%Tata Power 88,957 16% -5% 20,139 33% -3% 2,307 17% 301%Total 338,605 6% -3% 109,424 13% -2% 35,483 -17% 29%

PropertiesAnant Raj Industries 961 -30% 20% 336 -53% 15% 222 -56% 15%DLF 21,415 5% -7% 8,031 8% -12% 1,171 -15% -35%Godrej Properties 2,560 10% 27% 640 -11% 58% 330 1% -16%HDIL 2,327 -10% 54% 2,327 -30% 11% 388 -72% 139%

Indiabulls Real Estate 5,500 61% 8% 1,650 36% 12% 899 179% 24%Jaypee Infratech 7,347 4% -4% 3,606 0% 5% 893 -51% 10%Oberoi Realty 2,577 0% 18% 1,417 -5% 6% 1,066 -14% 5%Omaxe 4,155 -10% 3% 623 10% 11% 236 5% 24%Phoenix Mills 731 10% 5% 512 17% 8% 392 19% -6%Prestige Estates 5,000 107% 0% 1,300 79% 1% 838 83% -3%Sobha Developers 4,480 8% -3% 1,344 5% -3% 552 10% 10%Unitech 6,737 25% 18% 1,010 24% 34% 798 62% 27%Total 63,789 12% 2% 22,796 2% 1% 7,785 -14% 1%

TelecomBharti Airtel 204,665 1% 1% 65,493 3% 1% 8,161 13% 18%Idea Cellular 64,080 21% -2% 19,865 40% -4% 4,221 76% -9%Total 268,745 5% 0% 85,358 10% -1% 12,382 29% 8%

MediaDish TV India 6,016 13% 4% 1,504 -3% 23% (284) -175% 6%D.B. Corp. 4,536 20% 1% 1,179 37% -11% 694 43% -9%HT Media 5,414 6% 0% 731 29% -6% 427 28% -10%Jagran Prakashan 4,108 28% 7% 1,007 29% -1% 612 -12% 3%Zee Entertainment Enterprises 10,937 15% 12% 2,953 36% 1% 2,245 20% 0%Zee News 820 17% 6% 113 44% 21% 72 74% 37%Total 31,832 15% 6% 7,486 24% 2% 3,766 -1% -2%

PharmaApollo Hospitals 9,200 10% 3% 1,520 6% 4% 845 2% 7%Cipla 23,450 7% -6% 5,630 -17% -19% 4,040 -19% -16%Dr. Reddy's Laboratories 32,000 10% 12% 7,000 2% 21% 4,250 3% 18%Fortis Healthcare 12,300 -18% 4% 500 -76% 55% (715) -151% 34%Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals 6,485 -4% 0% 1,235 -40% 1% 1,050 -38% 11%Glenmark Pharmaceuticals 14,857 18% 20% 3,107 27% 22% 1,852 47% 32%Jubilant Lifesciences Limited 13,650 11% 1% 2,355 -10% 1% 750 -27% 8%Lupin 26,600 16% 7% 6,375 24% 8% 4,350 50% 8%Piramal Enterprises 9,800 14% 1% 1,425 95% -2% (955) -4% 35%Ranbaxy Laboratories 27,000 2% 3% 3,025 -13% 15% 1,490 -80% 128%Sun Pharmaceuticals 37,835 42% 8% 16,735 42% 8% 12,595 45% 1%Wockhardt 12,150 -10% -11% 3,230 -38% -23% 2,440 -46% -25%Total 227,827 12% 4% 52,637 4% 4% 31,992 -12% 33%

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Macquarie's total universe 9,067,855 13% 8% 1,513,280 -1% 7% 763,392 -17% 12%

Macquarie's total universe (exclOil & Gas)

4,774,379 10% 4% 1,192,347 11% 0% 603,608 3.0% 2%


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Fig 29 Macquarie Coverage Universe

Bloomberg Current Target Price Upside/ Mkt cap6 mths avg

turnover PER (x) P/BV (x) ROE 2 Yr EPS

Sector (Analyst) Ticker Price (Rs) (Rs) Downside (US$m) (US$m) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E (FY14E) % CAGR % Rating

Banks (Suresh Ganapathy/Parag Jariwala)Axis Bank AXSB IN 1,105 1,215 10% 8,328 57.87 8.9 7.6 1.4 1.2 16.3 15 OutperformBank of Baroda BOB IN 525 340 -35% 3,522 14.06 7.3 5.9 0.7 0.6 9.2 -9 UnderperformBank of India BOI IN 174 115 -34% 1,655 5.79 6.0 4.2 0.4 0.4 7.7 -5 UnderperformCanara bank CBK IN 236 167 -29% 1,657 8.02 5.0 3.8 0.4 0.4 8.1 -2 UnderperformHDFC HDFC IN 802 730 -9% 19,873 51.14 21.8 18.2 4.5 4.0 21.5 19 UnderperformHDFC Bank HDFCB IN 636 750 18% 24,097 40.91 18.8 15.0 3.5 3.0 20.5 23 OutperformICICI Bank ICICIBC IN 938 1,115 19% 17,271 73.25 11.7 9.9 1.5 1.3 13.2 14 OutperformIDBI IDBI IN 61 40 -35% 1,309 2.11 5.3 4.4 0.4 0.4 8.2 -1 UnderperformIDFC IDFC IN 95 135 43% 2,286 19.40 8.3 7.6 1.0 0.9 12.0 1 OutperformIndusind Bank IIB IN 399 485 22% 3,367 18.54 16.9 13.9 2.4 2.1 15.2 16 OutperformKotak Mahindra Bank KMB IN 700 785 12% 8,629 10.42 20.9 17.5 2.8 2.4 15.0 17 OutperformL&T Finance Holdings LTFH IN 66 49 -26% 1,827 2.69 16.7 13.4 1.9 1.6 11.8 29 Underperform

LIC Housing Finance LICHF IN 198 192 -3% 1,607 12.85 8.1 6.7 1.3 1.1 17.9 20 UnderperformMahindra & Mahindra Fin.Services

MMFS IN 264 183 -31% 2,399 7.54 14.0 11.7 2.8 2.3 21.4 30 Underperform

Power Finance Corp POWF IN 134 130 -3% 2,827 8.25 4.2 3.9 0.6 0.6 16.2 0 OutperformPunjab National Bank PNB IN 471 340 -28% 2,664 12.70 4.3 3.2 0.5 0.4 11.4 4 UnderperformReliance Capital RCAPT IN 329 430 31% 1,299 30.94 15.9 13.7 0.7 0.6 4.2 -17 OutperformRural Electrification RECL IN 193 157 -19% 3,063 5.95 6.0 4.8 1.0 0.9 17.3 2 NeutralSBI SBIN IN 1,660 1,550 -7% 18,160 81.25 7.5 6.2 0.8 0.8 11.7 0 NeutralShriram TransportFinance

SHTF IN 571 645 13% 2,087 8.41 8.0 7.0 1.5 1.3 20.4 16 Neutral

Union Bank UNBK IN 116 80 -31% 1,105 7.26 4.5 3.4 0.4 0.4 9.5 -3 UnderperformYes Bank YES IN 311 400 29% 1,790 45.93 7.9 6.0 1.6 1.3 22.4 19 Outperform

Cement (Rakesh Arora/Sumangal Nevatia)ACC ACC IN 1,140 999 -12% 3,428 5.98 14.1 13.0 2.4 2.2 18.0 12 UnderperformAmbuja Cements ACEM IN 191 137 -28% 4,702 8.16 16.0 14.2 2.7 2.4 17.8 17 UnderperformGrasim Industries GRASIM IN 2,716 3,407 25% 3,989 3.24 9.6 8.2 1.1 1.0 12.5 8 OutperformIndia Cements ICEM IN 53 45 -15% 261 1.19 10.8 6.5 0.4 0.4 3.7 12 NeutralUltratech Cements UTCEM IN 1,892 1,381 -27% 8,330 6.78 18.9 15.3 2.9 2.5 16.7 12 Underperform

Construction (Inderjeetsingh Bhatia/Amit Sinha)ABB India ABB IN 552 380 -31% 1,881 1.26 25.5 20.1 3.5 3.0 14.4 28 UnderperformAdani Ports and SEZ ADSEZ IN 141 180 28% 4,663 5.45 16.2 13.3 3.3 2.7 23.5 17 Outperform

BHEL BHEL IN 144 133 -8% 5,616 15.46 9.3 10.8 1.1 1.0 12.0 -30 UnderperformCrompton Greaves India CRG IN 91 90 -1% 941 3.94 14.8 9.7 1.5 1.3 10.6 167 NeutralGMR Infrastructure GMRI IN 22 25 11% 1,409 2.84 (27.6) 27.5 1.0 0.9 -3.5 nmf OutperformGujarat Pipavav Port GPPV IN 46 59 29% 353 0.27 9.5 8.8 1.4 1.2 15.8 28 OutperformGVK Power &Infrastructure

GVKP IN 7 9 34% 163 0.45 (9.0) 8.7 0.3 0.3 -3.5 nmf Outperform

J.P. Associates JPA IN 38 38 1% 1,336 27.69 16.0 10.7 0.6 0.6 3.9 28 UnderperformLarsen & Toubro LT IN 829 1,163 40% 12,256 41.39 14.5 10.4 2.0 1.8 16.6 52 OutperformNagarjuna Construction NJCC IN 19 14 -25% 76 0.55 7.1 6.9 0.2 0.2 2.5 11 UnderperformPunj Lloyd PUNJ IN 24 17 -29% 128 2.86 9.5 6.4 0.3 0.3 2.8 nmf UnderperformSiemens India SIEM IN 492 386 -22% 2,815 3.21 25.5 20.2 3.3 2.9 13.5 34 Underperform

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Information Technology (Nitin Mohta/Atul Soni)HCL Technologies HCLT IN 1,072 1,300 21% 12,337 20.08 14.0 11.7 4.1 3.1 33.4 27 OutperformHexaware HEXW IN 129 150 17% 619 5.16 8.2 7.7 2.3 1.9 30.3 11 OutperformInfosys Technologies INFO IN 3,015 3,550 18% 27,850 58.60 15.2 13.3 3.7 3.0 26.3 17 OutperformMindtree MTCL IN 1,198 1,250 4% 826 1.04 11.4 9.9 3.2 2.5 30.7 24 OutperformMphasis MPHL IN 454 500 10% 1,538 0.96 9.6 8.4 1.7 1.5 19.1 21 OutperformPersistent PSYS IN 631 620 -2% 411 0.31 10.9 10.4 2.2 1.9 21.4 15 NeutralRolta India RLTA IN 56 86 53% 146 0.36 3.6 3.5 0.4 0.3 11.6 -9 OutperformTCS TCS IN 1,946 2,200 13% 63,699 41.19 22.2 18.4 8.2 6.3 39.9 24 OutperformWipro WPRO IN 471 480 2% 19,186 16.05 15.6 14.2 3.7 3.3 25.3 21 Neutral

Media (Nitin Mohta/Atul Soni)DB Corp DBCL IN 253 310 22% 735 0.30 15.5 13.7 3.9 3.4 27.0 25 Outperform

Dish TV DITV IN 53 75 42% 904 3.83 (102.6) 29.5 (26.7) (281.0) 29.9 nmf OutperformHT Media HTML IN 85 120 42% 319 0.23 10.2 8.5 1.1 1.0 11.6 18 OutperformJagran Prakashan JAGP IN 80 90 12% 431 0.18 11.9 10.7 2.3 2.0 20.9 -4 NeutralZee Entertainment Z IN 246 300 22% 3,770 10.40 25.2 20.1 4.9 3.9 21.4 27 OutperformZee News ZEEN IN 12 17 39% 46 0.07 14.2 9.4 1.2 1.1 9.0 12 Outperform

Metals (Rakesh Arora/Sumangal Nevatia)Coal India COAL IN 302 360 19% 30,694 13.04 10.3 8.9 3.1 2.7 32.9 11 OutperformGujarat NRE Coke GNC IN 13 18 37% 127 0.13 12.1 2.7 0.4 0.4 4.4 33 OutperformHindalco HNDL IN 116 145 25% 3,534 13.86 9.0 7.1 0.6 0.6 7.3 1 OutperformHindustan Zinc HZ IN 134 152 13% 9,072 1.99 7.9 7.2 1.5 1.3 20.5 8 OutperformJindal Steel & Power JSP IN 241 350 45% 3,582 15.41 7.8 4.9 0.9 0.8 12.8 25 OutperformJSW Steel JSTL IN 763 850 11% 2,970 14.09 9.6 8.5 0.9 0.9 10.4 9 OutperformNALCO NACL IN 33 24 -28% 1,383 0.23 13.8 11.3 0.7 0.7 5.2 15 UnderperformNMDC NMDC IN 124 153 23% 7,881 5.63 7.7 7.1 1.6 1.5 22.1 5 OutperformSAIL SAIL IN 55 48 -12% 3,602 3.51 11.8 10.1 0.5 0.5 4.5 -6 NeutralTata Steel TATA IN 286 335 17% 4,463 30.59 9.0 6.7 0.8 0.7 8.7 253 Outperform

Oil & Gas (Abhishek Agarwal)Aban Offshore ABAN IN 225 222 -2% 157 1.46 3.0 2.2 0.3 0.3 8.3 72 NeutralBharat Petroleum BPCL IN 335 421 26% 3,871 7.88 15.7 11.5 1.4 1.3 9.1 -1 OutperformCairn India CAIR IN 327 378 16% 9,991 11.66 5.2 5.4 1.1 0.9 21.8 2 OutperformEssar Oil ESOIL IN 54 96 79% 1,163 1.70 4.5 3.1 1.3 0.9 38.1 nmf Outperform

GAIL GAIL IN 333 390 17% 6,763 5.94 9.8 8.7 1.3 1.2 14.3 6 OutperformHindustan Petroleum HPCL IN 191 255 34% 1,034 4.25 7.0 4.3 0.5 0.4 6.7 158 OutperformIndian Oil Corp IOCL IN 208 300 44% 8,030 2.38 6.8 6.0 0.7 0.7 11.3 38 OutperformOil & Natural Gas Corp. ONGC IN 267 360 35% 36,471 20.95 8.0 6.6 1.6 1.4 19.1 20 OutperformOil India OINL IN 459 650 42% 4,397 4.53 6.9 6.1 1.3 1.1 19.8 12 OutperformPetronet LNG PLNG IN 121 96 -21% 1,453 2.08 10.0 8.6 2.0 1.7 20.2 -4 UnderperformReliance Industries RIL IN 847 1,100 30% 43,645 52.62 11.1 10.2 1.2 1.1 11.7 9 Outperform

Pharmaceuticals (Abhishek Singhal/Kumar Saurabh)Apollo Hospitals APHS IN 909 1,190 31% 2,030 5.37 32.4 25.6 4.2 3.6 13.5 29 OutperformCipla CIPLA IN 436 480 10% 5,602 9.69 21.2 18.1 3.3 2.9 16.9 13 OutperformDr. Reddys Labs DRRD IN 2,430 2,600 7% 6,631 13.17 22.8 18.7 4.7 3.8 22.5 18 OutperformFortis Healthcare FORH IN 98 115 17% 723 0.61 134.9 35.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 nmf OutperformGlaxoSmithKline Pharma GLXO IN 2,467 2,000 -19% 3,364 1.13 31.0 27.5 9.1 8.2 30.5 13 UnderperformGlenmark GNP IN 539 770 43% 2,341 4.85 17.4 15.0 4.1 3.3 25.7 26 OutperformJubilant JOL IN 79 100 26% 202 0.23 3.4 2.5 0.4 0.4 14.0 15 Outperform

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Lupin LPC IN 861 860 0% 6,167 15.31 23.9 20.0 5.8 4.6 27.4 21 NeutralPiramal PIEL IN 570 600 5% 1,571 0.67 213.1 58.6 0.9 0.9 0.4 nmf NeutralRanbaxy RBXY IN 362 550 52% 2,438 18.72 4.6 10.7 1.8 1.6 15.7 40 OutperformStrides Arcolab STR IN 867 1,200 38% 822 3.73 21.7 18.1 1.0 0.9 4.8 33 OutperformSun Pharma SUNP IN 601 675 12% 20,059 19.20 47.5 22.3 8.0 6.2 32.0 25 OutperformWockhardt WPL IN 473 750 59% 827 11.01 4.4 4.1 1.3 1.0 36.1 -8 Neutral

Properties (Abhishek Bhandari)Anant Raj ARCP IN 42 120 186% 199 0.94 7.0 8.2 0.3 0.3 4.4 -3 OutperformDLF DLFU IN 139 202 45% 3,955 29.71 23.3 18.6 0.8 0.8 3.7 30 OutperformGodrej Properties GPL IN 361 506 40% 575 0.23 15.0 11.5 1.5 1.3 12.9 38 OutperformHDIL HDIL IN 39 43 10% 260 14.11 2.4 2.0 0.1 0.1 6.4 26 OutperformIndiabulls Real Estate IBREL IN 57 48 -15% 386 7.43 7.2 7.0 0.3 0.3 4.5 40 Underperform

Jaypee Infratech JPIN IN 17 27 64% 370 0.46 6.7 8.3 0.3 0.3 5.2 -37 OutperformOberoi Realty OBER IN 171 234 37% 899 0.43 11.1 6.6 1.2 1.1 11.6 30 OutperformOmaxe OAXE IN 138 118 -14% 382 0.84 12.1 5.1 1.1 0.9 9.5 51 UnderperformPhoenix Mills PHNX IN 226 261 16% 526 0.27 16.4 10.8 1.7 1.5 10.8 90 OutperformPrestige Estates PEPL IN 117 175 49% 662 0.70 11.2 10.1 1.3 1.2 12.7 17 OutperformSobha Developers SOBHA IN 291 378 30% 456 0.84 8.5 6.8 1.2 1.1 14.8 39 OutperformUnitech UT IN 16 12 -27% 683 13.33 6.6 8.3 0.4 0.3 5.5 29 Underperform

Consumer (Amit Mishra)Dabur DABUR IN 170 180 6% 4,714 4.25 32.0 28.2 11.3 9.3 39.0 14 NeutralEmami HMN IN 496 560 13% 1,774 2.04 29.8 24.7 11.4 9.1 42.8 20 OutperformGodrej Consumer GCPL IN 847 950 12% 4,633 3.63 35.5 27.2 7.5 6.5 22.7 26 OutperformHindustan Unilever HUVR IN 610 650 7% 21,139 29.50 36.0 32.5 45.4 44.7 127.0 10 NeutralITC ITC IN 339 421 24% 43,085 41.79 29.9 24.8 10.5 9.6 36.9 19 OutperformMarico Industries MRCO IN 212 240 13% 2,195 1.33 30.6 26.4 5.9 5.0 20.8 18 OutperformUnited Spirits UNSP IN 2,490 1,500 -40% 5,853 58.22 60.9 41.2 4.2 3.9 8.9 140 Underperform

Telecom (Abhishek Singhal/Kumar Saurabh)Bharti Airtel BHARTI IN 324 425 31% 20,690 24.94 30.7 23.4 2.1 2.0 7.6 52 OutperformIdea Cellular IDEA IN 176 215 22% 9,286 13.73 32.3 23.2 3.6 3.1 11.8 58 Outperform

Autos (Amit Mishra)Ashok Leyland AL IN 15 15 -1% 641 1.82 (12.2) (92.5) 1.0 1.0 -7.7 nmf Outperform

Bajaj Auto BJAUT IN 2,119 1,620 -24% 9,753 13.19 17.7 15.7 6.3 5.3 39.4 13 UnderperformEicher Motors EIM IN 3,606 4,320 20% 1,569 1.77 17.2 13.3 4.1 3.4 25.5 34.8 OutperformHero Honda HMCL IN 2,031 1,950 -4% 6,480 12.10 20.2 14.7 7.2 6.0 37.8 14 NeutralMahindra & Mahindra MM IN 852 1,000 17% 8,401 20.95 17.6 16.0 3.2 2.8 19.1 -0.2 OutperformMaruti Suzuki MSIL IN 1,412 1,350 -4% 6,843 16.60 17.7 16.0 2.1 1.9 12.3 2.9 NeutralTata Motors TTMT IN 346 380 10% 17,553 42.96 8.1 6.7 2.2 1.7 31.0 25 Outperform

Power (Inderjeet Bhatia/Amit Sinha)Adani Power ADANI IN 33 26 -22% 1,518 2.84 (8.1) 26.0 1.5 1.5 -22.5 nmf UnderperformCESC CESC IN 349 383 10% 692 1.35 6.7 6.3 0.6 0.6 9.6 5 OutperformJSW Energy JSW IN 45 57 27% 1,183 1.71 6.6 8.4 1.0 0.9 16.5 -8 OutperformNTPC NTPC IN 144 187 30% 18,998 11.31 10.6 9.8 1.5 1.4 14.7 9 OutperformPower Grid Corporation PWGR IN 100 123 23% 7,404 6.33 11.8 10.0 1.5 1.4 14.5 8 OutperformTata Power TPWR IN 81 95 17% 3,079 4.68 15.0 9.4 1.6 1.5 11.8 67 Outperform

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2013; Prices as of October 3, 2013 close

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Top 10 and Model Portfolio Performance

Fig 30 Macquarie Top 10 stock list

Company Market cap(US$ m)

% return

sinceadded % Return(7 Day) % Return(1 month) % Return(3 months) FY14E PER(Macq est) FY14E P/BV(Macq est)

Macquarie

FY14E EPSGrowth % ExpectedFY14 ROE

Coal India 30,608 -7.2 -0.5 15.8 1.9 10.3 3.1 6.8 32.9HCL Technologies 12,325 20.8 5.0 7.9 NA 14.0 4.1 35.7 33.4ICICI Bank 17,340 -11.4 -0.9 19.7 -10.8 11.7 1.5 11.0 13.2Idea Cellular 9,334 5.5 1.6 17.2 NA 32.3 3.6 78.6 11.8ITC 42,914 -4.1 -3.0 12.7 NA 29.9 10.5 17.7 36.9Jindal Steel and Power 3,604 -65.5 2.3 9.8 7.7 7.8 0.9 -0.5 12.8Larsen & Toubro 12,277 -33.2 -0.1 19.3 -11.8 13.7 2.0 74.7 16.6Mahindra & Mahindra 8,397 -7.2 0.0 10.9 NA 17.6 3.2 -9.7 19.1Ranbaxy Laboratories 2,434 -13.4 7.5 -11.4 NA 14.5 1.8 43.4 15.7Tata Motors 17,609 68.7 0.7 16.3 16.8 8.1 2.2 30.1 31.0Top-10 Focus List Aggregate* 156,842 -7.1 1.3 12.5 -3.8 16.0 3.3 28.8 22.3MSCI India 718,852 4.7 0.7 8.7 1.7Sensex 547,810 8.7 0.0 9.1 2.1Nifty 643,988 7.3 0.5 10.6 0.7

Note: Average returns are equal-weighted and there are no transaction costs involved.Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2013; Prices as of October 3, 2013 close

Fig 31 Past changes to Top-10 List

Date Stocks Replaced Date when Stock was added Profit Booked (%) Stocks Added

12/11/2010 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 24/08/2010 25.5 Tata Motors12/11/2010 Tata Power Co Ltd 24/08/2010 7.5 Power Finance Corp12/11/2010 TCS 24/08/2010 21.3 Infosys26/11/2010 Dr. Reddy's 24/08/2010 35.0 Glenmark12/01/2011 Power Finance 12/11/2010 -11.0 Reliance Ind.30/05/2011 GAIL 24/08/2010 -2.7 BPCL30/05/2011 Glenmark 26/11/2010 -16.8 Dr. Reddy's30/05/2011 Tata Motors 12/11/2010 -13.6 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd30/05/2011 Tata Steel 24/08/2010 12.8 JSW Steel25/08/2011 JSW Steel 30/05/2011 -14.6 Bharti25/08/2011 ICICI Bank 24/08/2010 -16.7 HDFC Bank28/11/2011 ITC 24/08/2010 22.9 Hindustan Unilever12/01/2012 BPCL 30/05/2011 -18.0 Coal India12/01/2012 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 30/05/2011 4.0 Maruti10/05/2012 Reliance Industries 12/01/2011 -33.0 NTPC10/05/2012 Infosys 12/11/2010 -22.0 TCS29/06/2012 TCS 10/05/2012 2.8 ICICI bank26/07/2012 Maruti 12/01/2012 11.5 Tata Motors27/09/2012 Hindustan Unilever 28/11/2011 38.0 Maruti14/01/2013 ICICI Bank 29/06/2012 31.8 Axis Bank14/01/2013 HDFC Bank 25/08/2011 50.9 SBI14/01/2013 Dr Reddy's 30/05/2011 21.0 DLF11-07-2013 DLF 14-01-2013 -27.8 ITC

11-07-2013 Maruti 27-09-2012 13.1 M&M Ltd11-07-2013 SBI 14-01-2013 -23.5 ICICI bank19-08-2013 Bharti 25-08-2011 -18.0 Idea Cellular29-08-2013 Axis Bank 14-01-2013 -38.6 HCL tech29-08-2013 NTPC 10-05-2012 -12.5 Ranbaxy


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4 October 2013 17

Fig 32 Top 10 Stock Performance

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2013

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13

Top-10 Focus List

MSCI India

Index, Aug 24, 2010 =100

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4 October 2013 18

Fig 33 Performance of stocks included in model portfolio (%)

Weight inMacquarie

Weight inMSCI Performance*

Sector/Company Ticker Portfolio Index Since Added 1w 1m 3m 6m 1Y

Macquarie Model Portfolio MACQ Index 0.5 1.0 8.8 -3.1 -2.7 -10.3MSCI India MXIN Index 4.7 0.7 8.7 1.7 7.0 0.2

Sensex Sensex Index 8.7 0.0 9.1 2.1 7.9 1.6NIFTY Nifty Index 7.3 0.5 10.6 0.7 6.6 -0.7

Consumer Staples MXIN0CS Index 9.3 11.5 105.6 -1.6 7.7 -0.6 20.1 16.6Hindustan Unilever Ltd HUVR IN Equity 3.7 3.1 53.5 -3.1 -0.6 0.0 27.6 14.9ITC Ltd ITC IN Equity 5.6 5.2 49.3 -3.0 12.7 -1.1 15.7 17.9

Consumer Discretionary MXIN0CD Index 6.5 6.1 56.2 1.5 12.5 3.7 16.7 -1.5Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd MM IN Equity 4.0 1.9 38.5 0.0 10.9 -12.3 1.4 -9.6Tata Motors Ltd TTMT IN Equity 2.5 1.8 74.3 0.7 16.3 16.8 34.8 9.2

Energy MXIN0EN Index 14.2 12.6 -14.7 0.7 4.2 -4.4 1.9 -2.3Coal India Ltd COAL IN Equity 1.5 1.0 -7.2 -0.5 15.8 1.9 -2.1 -16.0Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd ONGC IN Equity 2.1 1.5 -16.5 -3.8 6.1 -15.7 -14.8 -0.4Reliance Industries Ltd RIL IN Equity 8.5 8.5 -12.5 1.0 1.9 -3.8 7.3 0.7Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd BPCL IN Equity 2.1 0.4 -1.2 8.4 25.6 -8.2 -11.9 -5.9

Financials MXIN0FN Index 23.3 24.9 -7.7 1.1 14.1 -10.4 -6.2 -17.4Axis Bank AXSB IN Equity 3.0 1.9 -20.3 7.1 41.1 -14.2 -8.2 -18.9DLF Ltd DLFU IN Equity 1.0 0.4 -55.4 2.6 9.3 -21.7 -40.4 -40.9HDFC Bank Ltd HDFCB IN Equity 8.3 6.8 45.1 2.4 13.1 -4.7 1.9 -7.1ICICI Bank Ltd ICICIBC IN Equity 4.0 2.7 -4.7 -0.9 19.7 -10.8 -5.2 -19.0HDFC Ltd HDFC IN Equity 4.5 7.9 15.4 1.2 14.2 -5.6 5.8 -3.7State Bank of India SBIN IN Equity 2.5 1.6 -9.9 -0.9 12.5 -12.4 -18.4 -31.6

Health Care MXIN0HC Index 8.5 7.3 78.1 0.8 9.8 7.4 18.2 23.3Glenmark Pharma GNP IN Equity 1.2 0.0 6.4 3.2 4.9 -7.9 9.8 0.1Sun Pharma SUNP IN Equity 2.5 2.5 63.4 3.4 17.2 16.0 38.9 62.5Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd RBXY IN Equity 3.0 0.4 5.8 7.5 -11.4 5.8 -17.8 -28.8Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd DRRD IN Equity 1.8 1.8 7.6 -1.1 10.1 8.5 25.5 32.4

Industrials MXIN0IN Index 4.5 3.6 -51.8 -0.3 18.0 -12.9 -11.1 -29.0

Cummins India KKC IN Equity 1.5 0.0 -17.3 -0.3 7.2 -7.5 -17.7 -21.1Larsen & Toubro Ltd LT IN Equity 3.0 1.8 -32.9 -0.1 19.3 -11.8 -6.2 -23.5

Information Technology MXIN0IT Index 21.5 21.5 44.3 2.3 1.2 28.8 20.4 43.8Infosys Ltd INFO IN Equity 9.5 11.1 9.6 0.8 0.1 23.7 7.2 31.5Tata Consultancy Services Ltd TCS IN Equity 7.0 7.1 132.4 4.2 1.2 32.3 36.7 60.2HCL Technologies Ltd HCLT IN Equity 5.0 1.6 31.4 5.0 7.9 38.8 48.2 77.5

Materials MXIN0MT Index 5.7 6.3 -25.2 0.6 12.8 8.9 5.5 -17.3NMDC Ltd NMDC IN Equity 2.1 0.0 6.4 -2.3 5.3 19.4 0.2 -26.4Jindal Steel & Power Ltd JSP IN Equity 2.9 0.7 -65.5 2.3 9.8 7.7 -27.1 -47.7Tata Steel Ltd TATA IN Equity 0.7 0.7 2.7 -4.7 1.6 8.0 -6.6 -34.8

Telecom. Services MXIN0TC Index 3.5 2.6 -47.6 -1.6 16.0 14.9 43.2 30.0Bharti Airtel Ltd BHARTI IN Equity 1.5 1.4 -12.7 -3.1 13.8 9.6 15.6 0.7Idea Cellular Ltd IDEA IN Equity 2.0 0.8 35.1 1.6 17.2 28.0 64.7 69.7

Utilities MXIN0UT Index 3.0 3.7 -38.5 -1.4 10.2 -1.4 -1.3 -16.4Power Grid Corp of India Ltd PWGR IN Equity 1.6 0.9 -7.6 0.6 4.4 -7.2 -4.1 -12.3NTPC Ltd NTPC IN Equity 2.0 1.1 -3.7 -3.9 12.4 0.2 2.2 -7.5

* Returns are weighted for Model Portfolio and unweighted for individual stocks and there are no transaction costs involved; Period performance ofindividual stocks reflects actual price performance

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2013. Prices as of October 3, 2013 close.

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4 October 2013 19

Market and Sector Performance

Fig 34 Performance of major benchmark and sectoral indices (%)

Index/Sector YTD 5 Day 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year

Benchmark IndicesMid-Cap Index -19.6 1.6 7.3 -4.4 -6.9 -15.1Small-Cap Index -24.9 1.2 6.0 -2.4 -6.4 -23.1MSCI India 1.0 0.7 6.7 2.2 6.5 3.6BSE 500 Index -5.1 0.5 7.9 0.1 2.8 -1.9BSE 200 Index -3.5 0.5 8.1 0.5 3.8 -0.2NIFTY Index 0.1 0.5 8.5 1.2 6.0 2.1BSE 100 Index -1.6 0.4 8.1 1.1 5.2 1.4SENSEX 30 Index 2.3 -0.1 7.0 2.4 7.3 4.3

Sectoral IndicesBSE IT Index 41.3 2.6 -0.8 28.6 19.1 33.7BSE TECK Index 32.7 1.8 1.4 22.9 19.4 31.1Auto Index -0.5 1.6 10.1 5.1 17.4 9.0Healthcare Index 18.0 1.2 5.8 5.8 17.0 27.4BSE Banks Index -19.1 1.0 15.2 -10.8 -9.3 -13.1

BSE Realty Index -42.0 0.9 6.4 -19.0 -31.1 -37.0Consumer Dur. Index -23.7 -0.1 7.0 -4.3 -15.8 -17.2Oil & Gas Index -2.1 -0.1 1.5 -5.0 0.8 -5.4Capital Goods Index -26.3 -0.5 14.5 -11.7 -10.8 -29.0Metal Index -22.2 -1.2 7.3 13.3 1.4 -19.0NSE Infra Index -15.1 -1.3 13.1 -3.2 0.3 -15.0BSE PSU Index -24.9 -1.4 8.8 -8.1 -15.2 -27.0BSE FMCG Index 14.6 -1.7 7.7 -0.1 16.3 20.9Power Index -23.1 -2.2 10.4 -5.5 -7.6 -26.8

MSCI India SectorsInformation Technology 43.9 2.3 -1.4 28.3 19.0 34.3Consumer Discretionary -0.7 1.5 9.8 3.6 16.4 9.3Finance -16.5 1.1 12.9 -9.9 -7.7 -11.0Healthcare 23.8 0.8 7.0 8.0 19.3 30.8Energy -2.0 0.7 2.0 -3.0 3.9 -4.5

Materials -15.9 0.6 10.6 10.1 5.3 -11.4Industrials -28.0 -0.3 15.4 -12.1 -11.8 -29.6Utilities -15.9 -1.4 8.9 -1.8 -0.9 -20.0Telecom 31.7 -1.6 11.0 13.3 46.6 56.6Consumer Staples 17.6 -1.6 6.8 0.2 19.8 23.5

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2013. Prices as of October 3, 2013 close

Fig 35 Performance of global markets (%)

YTD 1W 1M 3M 6M 1Y

MSCI India 1.0 0.7 6.7 2.2 6.5 3.6MSCI Asia ex-Japan -0.5 0.6 6.1 9.2 1.2 4.5MSCI EM -4.7 0.5 7.2 9.0 -1.2 0.0

MSCI China -1.4 0.3 3.8 16.7 4.1 11.0MSCI World 15.3 -0.8 3.1 6.5 8.5 16.1MSCI US 18.2 -1.1 1.8 4.4 8.0 15.5MSCI Europe 9.8 -1.2 2.3 5.7 5.6 13.1MSCI UK 9.1 -1.8 -0.5 0.4 1.5 10.5MSCI Japan 36.6 -3.6 1.4 -0.1 13.0 60.5


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4 October 2013 20

MSCI Sectors Performance

Fig 36 MSCI Consumer Discretionary Fig 37 MSCI Consumer Staples

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2013 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2013

Fig 38 MSCI Energy Fig 39 MSCI Financials


Fig 40 MSCI Healthcare Fig 41 MSCI Industrials


Fig 42 MSCI Information Technology Fig 43 MSCI Materials


80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13

Consumer Discret ionary MSCI India

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


Consumer Staples MSCI India

90

95

100

105

110

115


Energy MSCI India

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Financials MSCI India

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


Healthcare MSCI India

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Industrials MSCI India

60

7080

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160


IT MSCI India

60

6570

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Materials MSCI India

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4 October 2013 21

Fig 44 MSCI Telecom Fig 45 MSCI Utilities


60

70

80

90100

110

120

130

140


Telecom MSCI India

60

65

70

75

8085

90

95

100

105

110


Utilities MSCI India

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4 October 2013 22

Market and Sector Valuations

Fig 46 Valuations of major benchmark and sectoral indices

PER Price-to-Book EV/EBITDA Div Yield (%)

Index/Sector FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15EBenchmark IndicesSENSEX 30 Index 14.9 12.8 2.4 2.1 8.6 7.6 1.7 2.0NIFTY Index 14.4 12.1 2.3 2.0 8.8 7.8 1.7 2.0MSCI India 15.2 12.9 2.4 2.1 9.6 8.5 1.6 1.8BSE 500 Index 13.6 11.3 2.0 1.7 9.6 8.3 1.7 1.9BSE 200 Index 14.0 11.6 2.1 1.8 9.5 8.3 1.7 2.0BSE 100 Index 14.1 11.8 2.1 1.9 9.4 8.2 1.7 2.0Mid-Cap Index 10.9 8.4 1.3 1.1 9.9 8.3 1.9 2.1Small-Cap Index 7.5 6.8 0.7 0.6 NA NA NA NA

Sectoral IndicesBSE Realty Index 11.2 7.9 0.6 0.5 10.2 8.3 1.4 1.7BSE Banks Index 10.8 8.3 1.6 1.3 NA NA 1.9 2.2Auto Index 11.6 10.3 2.7 2.2 6.5 5.9 1.5 1.7Metal Index 8.7 7.4 0.9 0.9 3.9 3.6 2.5 2.7

Capital Goods Index 15.2 12.9 1.7 1.6 10.4 9.2 1.8 1.9Healthcare Index 22.2 18.9 4.1 3.5 15.4 13.1 0.8 0.9BSE IT Index 17.5 15.5 4.4 3.7 12.2 10.9 1.5 1.7BSE FMCG Index 32.3 27.3 9.5 8.9 22.2 18.8 1.7 2.0Oil & Gas Index 9.8 8.7 1.3 1.2 6.7 5.9 2.2 2.5Consumer Dur. Index 17.0 14.4 3.9 3.2 17.3 14.6 NA NAPower Index 13.1 10.7 1.1 1.0 9.0 7.7 2.1 2.2BSE TECK Index 19.2 17.3 3.7 3.3 11.0 9.8 1.3 1.5NSE Infra Index 15.2 12.6 1.5 1.4 9.1 7.9 1.5 1.7

MSCI India SectorsConsumer Staples 35.1 29.3 10.1 8.9 23.8 20.1 1.5 1.8Consumer Discretionary 12.2 10.9 3.2 2.6 6.9 6.5 1.7 1.9Energy 10.0 9.1 1.4 1.2 6.9 6.1 2.2 2.3Finance 14.2 11.5 2.2 1.9 NA NA 1.6 2.0Healthcare 24.5 19.6 4.1 3.5 16.3 13.7 0.7 0.8

Industrials 13.1 11.1 1.6 1.4 9.6 8.3 1.8 1.8Information Technology 18.3 16.2 4.6 3.9 13.0 11.6 1.5 1.7Materials 10.8 9.1 1.1 1.0 4.2 3.7 1.4 1.6Telecom 30.0 21.1 1.9 1.8 7.9 7.0 0.3 0.4Utilities 10.8 9.6 1.1 1.0 8.5 7.6 2.2 2.4


Fig 47 Valuation of global markets

PER Price-to-Book EV/EBITDA Div Yield (%)

CY13E/FY14E

CY14E/FY15E

CY13E/FY14E

CY14E/FY15E

CY13E/FY14E

CY14E/FY15E

CY13E/FY14E

CY14E/FY15E

MSCI India 15.2 12.9 2.4 2.1 9.6 8.5 1.6 1.8MSCI China 9.7 8.8 1.4 1.3 7.3 6.6 3.4 3.6MSCI EM 11.4 10.2 1.5 1.3 7.7 7.0 2.8 3.0MSCI Europe 13.8 12.3 1.6 1.5 8.2 7.6 3.6 3.9MSCI Asia ex-Japan 12.2 10.8 1.5 1.4 8.8 7.9 2.6 2.8MSCI World 14.8 13.3 1.9 1.8 9.2 8.5 2.6 2.8MSCI US 15.2 13.8 2.4 2.2 9.6 8.9 2.1 2.3MSCI UK 12.8 11.7 1.8 1.7 7.6 7.0 3.8 4.1MSCI Japan 14.4 13.0 1.2 1.2 9.6 8.8 2.0 2.2


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4 October 2013 23

MSCI Sectors 12-Month Forward PER

Fig 48 MSCI Consumer Discretionary Fig 49 MSCI Consumer Staples


Fig 50 MSCI Energy Fig 51 MSCI Financials


Fig 52 MSCI Healthcare Fig 53 MSCI Industrials


Fig 54 MSCI Information Technology Fig 55 MSCI Materials


5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Ratio10Y Average +1 Stdev -1 Stdev

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Ratio 10Y Average +1 Stdev -1 Stdev

3.0

7.0

11.0

15.0

19.0

23.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


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4 October 2013 24

Fig 56 MSCI Telecom Fig 57 MSCI Utilities


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


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4 October 2013 25

Fund Flows

Fig 58 Fund Flows into Equities and Derivatives*

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2013; *Data as of October 1, 2013

Fig 59 FII and Domestic Mutual Fund Inflows


Fig 60 FII Net Investment in Equity and Debt Fig 61 Domestic MFs Net Invt. in Equity and Debt


US$ mn Latest 1W Total 1M Total YTD Total

FII Net Equity Inflows -14 -59 1904 13389Domestic MFs, Net equity Investment -65 -39 -467 -2991FII Net Stocks Futures Bought -32 -77 -685 3015

FII Net Index Futures Bought 38 47 1348 -952FII Net Derivative Purchases 92 21 66 10686

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13

US$ mn

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

FII Net Inflows (12 week rolling, LHS)

Domestic MFs, net equity purchases (12 week rolling, RHS)

US$ mn

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

FII Monthly Net Investment in Equity

FII Monthly Net Investment in Debt

US$ bn

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

MF Monthly Net Investment in Equity

MF Monthly Net Investment in Debt

US$ bn

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4 October 2013 26

Market and Sector Earnings

Fig 62 Profile of consensus Sensex EPS estimates


Fig 63 4-Week Earnings Revision Ratio for the Broader Market (BSE-100 Index)


730

830

930

1030

1130

1230

1330

1430

1530

Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

FY12 FY13 FY14

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Jan-05 Oct-05 Jul-06 Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13

EPS Revisions Ratio (BSE-100)

3-Month Moving Average


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4 October 2013 27

Monthly Event Calendar*

*Expected date of release/announcementSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2013

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

07-10-13 08-10-13 09-10-2013

India Trade data for Sep

India Auto Sales data

from SIAM

10-10-2013

India Auto Sales data from

SIAM

11-10-2013

Infosys Q2FY14 earnings

India IIP data

14-10-2013

Indusind Bank Q2FY14

earnings

India WPI data for Sep

India CPI data for Sep

15-10-2013

TCS Q2FY14 earnings

HDFC Bank Q2FY14 earnings

Indusind Bank Q2FY14

earnings

16-10-2013

Petronet LNG Q2FY14

earnings

Mindtree Q2FY14

earnings

17-10-2013

Axis Bank Q2FY14 earnings

US Housing data

18-10-13

21-10-2013

HDFC Ltd Q2FY14 earnings

22-10-13 23-10-2013

Piramal Ent. Q2FY14

earnings

24-10-13 25-10-2013

ICICI Bank Q2FY14 earnings

28-10-2013

Hind. Unilever Q2FY14

earnings

Dabur Q2FY14 earnings

29-10-2013

RBI Quarterly Monetary

Policy

Ranbaxy Q2FY14 earnings

30-10-13 31-10-2013

India Fiscal Deficit data

01-11-2013

India PMI Mfg

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4 October 2013 28

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New ZealandOutperform return >3% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral return within 3% of benchmark returnUnderperform return >3% below benchmark return

Benchmark return is determined by long term nominalGDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividendyield

Macquarie Asia/EuropeOutperform expected return >+10%

Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform expected return +10%Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform expected return 5% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral return within 5% of benchmark returnUnderperform return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USAOutperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell3000 index returnNeutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 indexreturnUnderperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000index return

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historicalprice movements.

Very highhighest risk Stock should beexpected to move up or down 60100% in a year

investors should be aware this stock is highlyspeculative.

High stock should be expected to move up ordown at least 4060% in a year investors shouldbe aware this stock could be speculative.

Medium stock should be expected to move upor down at least 3040% in a year.

Lowmedium stock should be expected tomove up or down at least 2530% in a year.

Low stock should be expected to move up ordown at least 1525% in a year.* Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocksonly

Recommendations 12 monthsNote: Quant recommendations may differ fromFundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the followingadjustments made:

Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision forcatastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging,IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expenseExcluded: non recurring items, asset revals, propertyrevals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &minority interests

EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assetsROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /averagetotal assetsROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders fundsGross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted averagenumber of shares

All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocksare modelled under IFRS (International FinancialReporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 September 2013

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUROutperform 50.56% 56.87% 48.78% 41.00% 61.75% 47.10% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.85% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)Neutral 38.95% 25.18% 42.68% 54.40% 34.43% 30.89% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.90% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)Underperform 10.49% 17.94% 8.54% 4.60% 3.83% 22.01% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Company Specific Disclosures:

Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures.

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Asia Research

Head of Equ ity Research

John OConnell (Global Head) (612) 8232 7544Peter Redhead (Asia Head) (852) 3922 4836

Automobi les/Auto Parts

Janet Lewis (China) (852) 3922 5417

Zhixuan Lin (China) (8621) 2412 9006

Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084

Clive Wiggins (Japan) (813) 3512 7856

Michael Sohn (Korea) (82 2) 3705 8644

Banks and Non-Bank Financials

Ismael Pili (Asia, Hong Kong, China) (852) 3922 4774

Suresh Ganapathy (India) (9122) 6720 4078

Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8366

Alastair Macdonald (Japan) (813) 3512 7476

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Matthew Smith (Malaysia, Singapore) (65) 6601 0981

Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892

Dexter Hsu (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7530

Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728

Conglomerates

Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892Somesh Agarwal (Singapore) (65) 6601 0840

Consumer and Gaming

Gary Pinge (Asia) (852) 3922 3557

Linda Huang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4068

Jamie Zhou (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1147

Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084

Lyall Taylor (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8489

Toby Williams (Japan) (813) 3512 7392

HongSuk Na (Korea) (822) 3705 8678

Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899Somesh Agarwal (Singapore) (65) 6601 0840

Best Waiyanont (Thailand) (662) 694 7993

Emerging Leaders

Jake Lynch (China, Asia) (8621) 2412 9007Adam Worthington (ASEAN) (852) 3922 4626Michael Newman (Japan) (813) 3512 7920

Industrials

Janet Lewis (Asia) (852) 3922 5417

Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082

Saiyi He (China) (852) 3922 3585

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087Andy Lesmana (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8398

Kenjin Hotta (Japan) (813) 3512 7871Juwon Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993

David Gambrill (Thailand) (662) 694 7753

Insurance

Scott Russell (Asia, Japan) (852) 3922 3567

Chung Jun Yun (Korea) (822) 2095 7222

Software and Internet

David Gibson (Asia) (813) 3512 7880Jiong Shao (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3566Steve Zhang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3578Nitin Mohta (India) (9122) 6720 4090Nathan Ramler (Japan) (813) 3512 7875Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989

Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals

James Hubbard (Asia) (852) 3922 1226Aditya Suresh (Hong Kong, China) (852) 3922 1265Abhishek Agarwal (India) (9122) 6720 4079Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993Trevor Buchinski (Thailand) (662) 694 7829

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare

Abhishek Singhal (India) (9122) 6720 4086

Property

Tuck Yin Soong (Asia, Singapore) (65) 6601 0838David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291Jeffrey Gao (China) (8621) 2412 9026Kai Tan (China) (852) 3922 3720

Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088Andy Lesmana (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8398Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993RJ Aguirre (Philippines) (632) 857 0890Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

David Liao (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7518Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727

Resources / Metals and Mining

Graeme Train (China) (8621) 2412 9035Elizabeth Lee (China) (852) 3922 1302Matty Zhao (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1293Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6720 4093

Adam Worthington (Indonesia) (852) 3922 4626Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886David Liao (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7518Chak Reungsinpinya (Thailand) (662) 694 7982

Technology

Jeffrey Su (Asia, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512Steve Zhang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3578Nitin Mohta (India) (9122) 6720 4090Claudio Aritomi (Japan) (813) 3512 7858Damian Thong (Japan) (813) 3512 7877

David Gibson (Japan) (813) 3512 7880George Chang (Japan) (813) 3512 7854Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516Ellen Tseng (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7524Tammy Lai (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7525

Telecoms

Nathan Ramler (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7875Danny Chu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4762Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486Prem Jearajasingam(Malaysia, Singapore) (603) 2059 8989

Aaron Salvador (Philippines) (632) 857 0895Joseph Quinn (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7519

Transport & Infrastructure

Janet Lewis (Asia, Japan) (852) 3922 5417Bonnie Chan (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3898Nicholas Cunningham (Japan) (813) 3512 6044Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Utilities & Renewables

Gary Chiu (Asia) (852) 3922 1435Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989

Commodities

Colin Hamilton (Global) (4420) 3037 4061Jim Lennon (4420) 3037 4271Duncan Hobbs (4420) 3037 4497Graeme Train (8621) 2412 9035Rakesh Arora (9122) 6720 4093

Economics

Peter Eadon-Clarke (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7850

Aimee Kaye (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0574Richard Gibbs (Australia) (612) 8232 3935Tanvee Gupta (India) (9122) 6720 4355

Quantitative / CPG

Gurvinder Brar (Global) (4420) 3037 4036Josh Holcroft (Asia). (852) 3922 1279Burke Lau (Asia) (852) 3922 5494Simon Rigney (Asia, Japan) (852) 3922 4719Eric Yeung (Asia) (852) 3922 4077Suni Kim (Japan) (813) 3512 7569

Strategy/Country

Viktor Shvets (Asia) (852) 3922 3883Chetan Seth (Asia) (852) 3922 4769Joshua van Lin (Asia Micro) (852) 3922 1425Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) (813) 3512 7850David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291Jiong Shao (China) (852) 3922 3566Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6720 4093

Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) (6121) 2598 8366Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643Yeonzon Yeow (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982

Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516David Gambrill (Thailand) (662) 694 7753

Find our research atMacquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/researchThomson: www.thomson.com/financialReuters: www.knowledge.reuters.comBloomberg: MAC GOFactset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspxCapitalIQ www.capitaliq.comEmail [email protected] for access

Asia SalesRegional Heads of Sales

Robin Black (Asia) (852) 3922 2074Chris Gray (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0288Peter Slater (Boston) (1 617) 598 2502Jeffrey Shiu (China & Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41) 22 818 7712Bharat Rawla (India) (9122) 6720 4100

Jurgan Usman (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555Miki Edelman (Japan) (813) 3512 7857John Jay Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9988Ruben Boopalan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Regional Heads of Sales con td

Sheila Schroeder (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5001Erica Wang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7586

Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601Julien Roux (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4867Sean Alexander (Generalist ) (852) 3922 2101

Regional Head of DistributionJustin Crawford (Asia) (852) 3922 2065

Sales Trading

Sales Trading contd

Mike Keen (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4905Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813

Isaac Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7582Dominic Shore (Thailand) (662) 694 7707

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EyeOnIndia041013e161065.pdf