EY-European-Banking-Barometer-2H13

European Banking Barometer – 2H13A brighter outlook?

Contents

Page1 Introduction 32 European overview 63 Economic environment 84 European sovereign debt crisis 115 B i tl k d f 145 Business outlook and focus areas 146 Business priorities and product line expectations 307 Headcount 448 Contacts 50

European Banking Barometer – 2H13Page 2

Introduction

As part of EY’s commitment to building a better working world, we have developed the European Banking Barometer to provide our clients with insight into the macro-economic outlook and its impact on the European banking industry over the next six months.

Now in its fourth edition, the latest bi-annual study consists of 184 interviews with senior bankers across 11 markets: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the Nordics, Poland, Spain, Switzerland and the UK.

The fieldwork was conducted via an online questionnaire and telephone interviews between September and October 2013 We interviewed respondents from a range of financial institutions covering at least 50% of banking assets in each2013. We interviewed respondents from a range of financial institutions covering at least 50% of banking assets in each market.

A range of bank types were interviewed in each market to ensure the study is a fair reflection of each country’s banking industry. Interviews were not conducted with subsidiaries of member/group banks.

The res lts in this report are presented in an aggregate market format and sho n in percentages Please note someThe results in this report are presented in an aggregate market format and shown in percentages. Please note, some charts may not add up to 100% as percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole number. Where possible, we have compared and contrasted the data against the European Banking Barometer – 1H13.

We would like to thank all the research participants for their contribution to the study.

If you would like to take part in our next European Banking Barometer study, please speak to your usual EY contact or refer to your local-country contact on page 50.


Composition of the survey sample by bank type

Bank type*

3434 Universal (large-scale banking group/major bank)

Corporate and investment

Private bank/Wealth management

Specialist (e.g., consumer credit, savings, or a bank that doesn’t offer a current account)

Retail and business (SME business banking)

11

10

10

* Numbers in the pie chart reflect the percentage of respondents who answered.Please note that given the structure of the German and Swiss banking markets, respondents in these two countries were provided with country-specific bank types that have been reallocated to our five European bank types as follows: For Germany, big banks and regional banks were reallocated to universal banks; foreign banks (not head-quartered in Germany) were reallocated to corporate and investment banks; private bankers were reallocated to private banks/wealth

t i b k d ti b k ll t d t t il d b i b k d t l b ildi i ti b ildi l i ti d t b k ll t d t i li t b k


management; savings banks and cooperative banks were reallocated to retail and business banks; and central building societies, building loan associations and mortgage banks were reallocated to specialist banks. For Switzerland, major banks were reallocated to universal banks; investment banks were reallocated to corporate and investment banks; private bankers (general or limited partnership) and banks under foreign control were reallocated to private banks/wealth management; cantonal banks, and regional and savings banks were reallocated to retail and business banks; and securities traders were reallocated to specialist banks.

Composition of the survey sample by bank type

M k t T t l U i lCorporate and

i t t

Private bank/Wealth

t S i li t

Retail and business

( ti )

Retail and business

( t t d)

Retail and business (privately

d)

Type of bank

Market Total Universal investment management Specialist (cooperative) (state owned) owned)

Austria 10 9 0 0 1 0 0 0

Belgium 16 4 0 4 1 0 1 6

France 21 7 2 2 1 1 2 6

Germany 41 9 3 2 2 8 15 2y

Italy 18 6 3 0 2 5 0 2

Netherlands 10 2 1 1 4 0 0 2

Nordics 14 8 1 0 4 0 0 1

Poland 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 2

Spain 13 5 1 1 2 1 0 3

Switzerland 10 2 0 4 0 0 3 1

UK 23 4 10 5 2 0 1 1

Europe 184 62 21 19 19 15 22 26Europe 184 62 21 19 19 15 22 26


European overview

The outlook for the European banking sector is brighter than it has been at any time in the past two years. Banks anticipate an improved performance over the next six months as stronger balance sheets, a healthier economy and a fading sovereign debt crisis allow them to turn their thoughts to growth. However, numerous challenges remain. The industry has yet to fully absorb the potential implications of the European Central Bank’s Assetremain. The industry has yet to fully absorb the potential implications of the European Central Bank s Asset Quality Review and restructuring and job cuts will continue as banks try to make the most of a more benign economic environment to progress strategic transformation initiatives.

European banks are increasingly positive about the macro-economic environment.► For the first time since the launch of EY’s European Banking Barometer a majority of banks are optimistic about the economic

tl k Fift i t f th d t ti i t th i th i k t i i th t i thoutlook. Fifty-six percent of the respondents now anticipate the economy in their market improving over the next six months compared with just 25% in 1H13. Polish, Spanish and UK banks are the most optimistic, with 86%, 77% and 74% respectively forecasting economic improvement.

► An increasing number of banks also believe the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is receding following signs that countries at the heart of the crisis are regaining competitiveness. Thirty-five percent of banks now expect the sovereign debt crisis will have adiminished impact on the banking sector in the next six months while just 16% fear an increased impact, compared with 20% g jand 35% respectively in 1H13.

► Nevertheless, the recovery remains weak, as illustrated by the European Central Bank’s recent rate cut, and Eurozone GDP is only expected to reach pre-crisis levels in 2014 or 2015.

Regulatory compliance is taking up an increasing amount of management focus.► Risk and regulation have overtaken cost cutting and efficiency as the key agenda items for European banks► Risk and regulation have overtaken cost cutting and efficiency as the key agenda items for European banks. ► Preparing for Basel III displaced risk management as the most critical agenda item for banks, with 73% of respondents thinking it

was very important. Risk management slipped to second, with 60% of the respondents citing it as a very important agenda item.► In the wake of mis-selling scandals many banks are now placing more emphasis on compliance with consumer regulation and

remediation. This was the fifth most important agenda item, with 49% of banks saying it was a very important activity.► Tactical cost cutting slipped to eighth place – the first time this has fallen out of the top five. Just 45% see this as a critical

European Banking Barometer – 2H13

► Tactical cost cutting slipped to eighth place the first time this has fallen out of the top five. Just 45% see this as a critical priority. Banks are now more focused on strategic cost initiatives such as streamlining processes as they prepare for growth.

Page 6

European overview

Eurozone banks expect to strengthen their balance sheets ahead of the Asset Quality Review (AQR).► European banks have already made strides in reducing the size of their balance sheets, and many will continue to do so. Forty-

four percent of banks expect to continue shrinking their balance sheets in the next six months. Only Polish banks, which are the most optimistic about the economic outlook, believe they are now less likely to shrink their balance sheet.p , y y

► Smaller balance sheets have enabled many banks to reduce their reliance on central bank funding in the last six months, and 51% plan to continue repaying funds in the next six. Only French banks, which are also the most pessimistic about the economyand sovereign debt crisis, anticipate increased demand for central bank funding.

► Eurozone banks are also likely to boost loan loss provisions (LLPs) ahead of the AQR. Thirty-four percent of all banks expect to increase LLPs in the next six months, with Spanish and Italian banks anticipating the greatest increase. Only UK banks, which

t bj t t th AQR ll t LLP t dare not subject to the AQR, generally expect LLPs to decrease.

Industry restructuring will continue, with most banks focusing on adjusting their footprint in the European market.► Fifty-six percent of banks expect to either buy or sell assets, or enter a joint venture in the next six months. The vast majority

of this activity – 91% of asset purchases and 86% of sales and joint ventures - will be within the European market. ► Seventy-three percent of banks anticipate consolidation in the next 12 months, and 86% anticipate consolidation within the next y p p , p

three years. The next year will largely see small-scale consolidation, with larger-scale activity happening in two to three years, as stronger balance sheets should leave banks in a better position to make major acquisitions.

Stronger balance sheets and a brighter outlook mean banks are turning thoughts to growth.► Fifty percent of banks anticipate launching specific initiatives to promote growth in the next six months.► Forty five percent of banks also expect to increase lending to customers Lending policies will also be less restrictive for most► Forty-five percent of banks also expect to increase lending to customers. Lending policies will also be less restrictive for most

sectors, especially to small and medium enterprises where 50% of banks expect looser lending criteria.► However, increased availability of credit may still be insufficient to meet increased demand and there are signs that some

markets are moving to a more US based market funding model. In the UK, the Netherlands and the Nordics, banks expect demand for debt and equity funding to outstrip demand for corporate lending.

► Banks are most optimistic about the prospects for private banking, with 53% anticipating an improved outlook. As a capital-light

European Banking Barometer – 2H13

p p p p g, p g p p gbusiness, many global banks see private banking as an engine for growth.

Page 7

Economic environment


Uncertainty has given way to optimism, with most banks now expecting the economic outlook to improve

How do you expect the general economic outlook in your market to change over the next six months?*

2H13

1 8 35 53 3

4 20 50 23 2

1H13

Worsen significantly Worsen slightly Stay the same Improve slightly Improve significantly

Comments: For the first time since the launch of EY’s European Banking Barometer, a majority of banks expect the economic outlook to strengthen. This optimism reflects improving economic indicators that suggest after a protracted downturn the recovery is taking hold across Europe. Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% in the second quarter of 2013 after a record 18 month contraction. Furthermore, strong Purchasing Manager Index data for a number of European countries points to growth becoming embedded. Nevertheless, as illustrated by the ECB’s recent rate cut, the recovery remains weak and Eurozone GDP is only expected to reach pre-crisis levels in 2014 or 2015, over six years after the start of the crisis.


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents who answered "Don't know".

Polish, Spanish and UK banks expect the greatest economic improvement

2H13

How do you expect the general economic outlook in your market to change over the next six months?*

1H13

1 8

20

35

38

40

53

63

40

3Europe

Belgium

Austria

4 20

21

38

50

71

38

23

7

25

2Europe

Belgium

Austria

Net increase

-13

-14

1

Net increase

20

63

47

5

14

20

6

5

29

29

40

50

37

33

36

40

44

59

33

21Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

17

16

14

40

25

19

40

64

30

50

54

24

21

20

8

27

12

10

8

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France -36

8

-34

-10

7

-1

54

38

20

43

26

50

23

14

65

50

69

86

9

8

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Worsen significantly Worsen slightly Remain at today's levels Improve slightly Improve significantly

3

3

3

8

11

10

16

15

64

55

41

46

19

31

34

31

3

6

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland 8

21

18

8

86

77

50

74

Worsen significantly Worsen slightly Remain at today s levels Improve slightly Improve significantly



European sovereign debt crisis


Concerns about the exposure of the banking sector to sovereign debt are beginning to recede…

What level of impact do you think the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will have on the banking sector in your market over the next six months compared with the previous six months?*

4 31 48 15 1

2H13

1 19 46 27 8

1H13

Significantly decreased impact Slightly decreased impact About the same Slightly increased impact Significantly increased impact

Comments: More than twice as many banks expect the impact of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis on their banking sector to diminish over the next six months than expect it to increase. This is a remarkable reversal of the results in the previous edition of the Barometer, and is underpinned by a return to growth in the Eurozone and signs that countries at the heart of the crisis are regaining competitiveness; Spanish and Greek labor costs are in steady decline, while the Spanish and Italian Governments are now running current account surpluses.


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered.

…with all countries except Austria, France and Poland expecting the impact of the sovereign debt crisis to diminish

What level of impact do you think the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will have on the banking sector in your market over the next six months compared with the previous six months?*

4

6

31

38

20

48

50

60

15

6

20

1Europe

Belgium

Austria

2H13

1 19

29

13

46

36

63

27

36

13

8

13

Europe

Belgium

Austria

1H13Net

increase

13

7

15

Net increase

0

-38

19

7

2

5

4

50

30

33

29

19

31

36

50

39

44

52

48

7

28

24

24

15

20

1

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

8

4

1

29

40

8

19

24

19

64

30

42

54

36

46

7

30

42

22

24

27

5

12

8

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe 15

8

8

26

-10

22

-19

0

-7

-5

-10

50

9

15

7

35

30

46

50

56

50

23

100

36

20

15

7

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

3

19

10

9

23

29

44

45

41

38

64

31

34

34

15

7

6

7

16

23

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics -22

15

41

28

18

-50

0

-46

-10

-44

Significantly decreased impact Slightly decreased impact About the same Slightly increased impact Significantly increased impact



Business outlook and focus areas


European banks are more optimistic about their own performance than at any time in the last 18 months

How do you expect your bank’s overall performance to change over the next six months?*

2H13

1 11 28 51 9

2 14 31 46 8

1H13

Weaken significantly Weaken slightly Stay the same Strengthen slightly Strengthen significantly

Comments: The degree to which respondents expect their bank’s performance to strengthen reflects both the improving g p p p g p geconomic outlook and a generally healthier banking sector. Despite lingering concerns about the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the US debt ceiling, the macro-economic outlook is more stable. Additionally, most banks have made progress improving the quality of their balance sheet. Regulation and the drive to reduce leverage have led banks to dispose of, or reduce exposure to, non-core assets and businesses, and many institutions are beginning to look for opportunities to grow revenues. Dutch banks have the most improved outlook, while only German banks are more pessimistic about their performance than in 1H13. This pessimism may, in part, be driven by capital regulation. Historically German banks have held a higher level of hybrid capital than their European counterparts, but this will no longer be possible under Basel III.


p p g p


Only German respondents expect their banks’ overall performance to deteriorate

How do you expect your bank’s overall performance to change over the next six months?*

Europe

Belgium

Austria 1H132H13

3.503.38

3.36 3.63

3.43 3.56

3 573 32

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France3.573.32

3.15

3.613.25

2.90 3.80

2.93

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands3.93 4.07

2.92 3.25

3.813.54

3 38 3 60

1 2 3 4 5UK

Switzerland

Weaken significantly

Strengthen significantly

3.38 3.60

3.89 3.91

Stay the same


* Numbers reflect the mean scores of respondents who answered on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 denotes ‘Weaken significantly’ and 5 denotes ‘Strengthen significantly’.

With the Asset Quality Review looming, one-third of banks expect to increase loan loss provisions

Over the next six months, what do you expect your bank’s total provisions against loan losses to do?*

2H13

1 12 54 26 8

3 12 53 28 4

1H13

Decrease significantly Decrease slightly Stay the same Increase slightly Increase significantly

Comments: Despite improving economic indicators, many European banks expect to increase loan loss provisions (LLPs) in the next six months. This is unsurprising; the ECB’s Asset Quality Review (AQR) – which will stress test bank balance sheets –will be based on 2013 year-end data. As a result Eurozone banks are likely to increase provisions for potentially troublesome loans in Q4. While Spanish and Italian banks expect the greatest increase in LLPs, UK banks, which are not subject to the AQR, generally expect LLPs to decrease.



Spanish and Italian banks are most likely to increase their loan loss provisions in the next six months

Over the next six months, what do you expect your bank’s total provisions against loan losses to do?*

Europe

Belgium

Austria3.503.25

3.14 3.25

3.19 3.27

3.333.24

1H132H13

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France3.14

3.613.33

2.90 3.50

Spain

Poland

Nordics2.71 3.00

3.313.00

3.63 3.77

3.10

1 2 3 4 5UK

Switzerland3.10

3.112.87

Decrease significantly

Increase significantlyStay the same


* Numbers reflect the mean scores of respondents who answered on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 denotes ‘Decrease significantly’ and 5 denotes ‘Increase significantly’.

Lending prospects will improve for most sectors…

How do you expect the corporate lending policies of banks in your market to change in each of the following sectors over the next six months?*

2H131H13

2111

20

3540

50

3216

21

173533

E i i d i l **Healthcare

SMEs

Net less restrictive

Net lessrestrictive

1219

3029

201112

1911

21

26272728

3435

2519

222121

32

2425

212528

17

Retail and consumer products**Information technology

Commercial and professional services**Media and telecommunications

Manufacturing and industrials (incl. chemicals, eng.)**Energy, mining and minerals** -15

74-16-1

14239

15166

2926

3037

17171923

More restrictive Less restrictive

3837

4951

1610

1816

Transport (incl. automotive and shipping)**Financial services

ConstructionCommercial real estate -35

-31-27-22

-14-11-9

-12

Comments: Since our previous Barometer, and despite one third of banks expecting to increase loan loss provisions, the outlook for lending has improved across most sectors. However, lending to a few sectors, including construction and commercial real estate will continue to tighten. The small and medium sized enterprise (SME) sector is expected to see the greatest loosening of lending policies. SMEs are benefitting from both the improving economic environment and the efforts of national governments and the European Investment Bank (EIB) to boost lending to the sector. The UK, which is not subject to the Asset Quality Review and is the second most optimistic country about economic growth, is the only market where lending is expected to be less restrictive for all sectors.


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘Stay the same’ are not displayed. Base excludes respondents who answered "Don't know".** Energy and mining includes minerals, Manufacturing includes industries, chemicals and engineering, Commercial services includes professional services, Retail includes consumer products and Transport includes automotive and shipping.

…although lending policies for construction and commercial real estate will continue to be restricted in all countries…


297

1321

5012

4140

272121

41

Austria Belgium France29

1443

142929

4371

294343

28

SMEsHealthcare

Energy and mining**Manufacturing**

Media and telecommsCommercial services** 33

2250

3311

30

2233

1011

22

2043

6040

2953

33713

2012

Germany Italy Netherlands

1414

5757

7171

432929

141414

Information technologyRetail**

Commercial real estateConstruction

Financial servicesTransport** 30

2213

221110

4033

1322

1110

1213

364

181312

20

66383641

2126

2020

SMEsHealthcare


Media and telecommsCommercial services**Information technology

Retail**

y y25

178

2315

278

31

675050

3838

272531

25

6733

503333

3333

502024

1535

18

2029

2211

18

Retail**Commercial real estate

ConstructionFinancial services

Transport**

315354

1438

31232321

31

5066

67

5025

3350

33

■ More restrictive ■ Less restrictive



… except the UK, where banks expect to loosen lending restrictions across all sectors


Nordics Poland Spain20

1030

101010

6050

2040

3050

17202020

67

40

2025

38

13

2614

2550

763838

14

SMEsHealthcare


Media and telecommsCommercial services**

Switzerland UK

2010

8080

3020

4050

1030

1714

40

5033

29

2925

1313

43

25

132525

14

Information technologyRetail**

Commercial real estateConstruction

Financial servicesTransport**

201010

10

10

1030303030

3020

SMEsHealthcare


Media and telecommsCommercial services**Information technology

Retail**

8

8

88

8

4646

3839

4631

393910

302020

10

20Retail**Commercial real estate

ConstructionFinancial services

Transport**

888

208

3953

304039

■ More restrictive ■ Less restrictive



European banks are beginning to shift their focus from balance sheet stabilization to growing new revenues

Introducing/Increasing incentives to increase customer deposits

How likely are the banks in your market to be engaged in the following activities over the next six months?*3.543.39

1H13

Repaying central bank funding programs

Launching initiatives to promote growth

Seeking funding from wholesale capital markets

Lending to customers

3.28 3.49

3.31 3.48

3.363.18

3.00 3.31

2H13


Reducing the balance sheet

Selling assets outside home markets

Selling assets outside Europe

3.29 3.42

3.14 3.27

3.06 3.22

3.353.20

1 2 3 4 5

Reducing loan to deposit ratios

Accessing central bank funding programs

3.353.20

2.852.69

Significantly less

Significantly moreStay the same

Comments: A more stable economic environment and continued low funding rates have helped banks to strengthen their balance sheets and reduce their dependence on central bank funding programs. Average ECB funding for Eurozone banks is now just 2.5% of bank assets and with potential penalties for excessive LTRO usage in the AQR, 51% are planning to repay central bank funding in the next six months. Many banks also expect to sell assets outside their core markets to boost capital and liquidity. With healthier balance sheets banks are beginning to focus on revenue growth. Fifty percent of banks anticipate launching specific initiatives to promote growth in the next six months and 45% expect to increase lending to customers. Forty-four percent of banks expect to increase funding from wholesale markets to support this growth.


four percent of banks expect to increase funding from wholesale markets to support this growth.

* Numbers reflect the mean scores of respondents who answered on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 denotes ‘Significantly less’ and 5 denotes ‘Significantly more’.

Most banks in all countries, except France, anticipate reducing access to central bank funding programs

Austria Belgium France

How likely are the banks in your market to be engaged in the following activities over the next six months?*

30

20

10

20

10

10

10

50

50

30

40

50

40

10

20

10

10

10

10







38

44

63

19

50

25

19

25

13

13

25

13

25

19

13

6

10

10

19

5

5

48

62

24

48

62

48

5

5

5

19

5

2010 20 10


50

30

10

10

10

10

40

60

10

10




Selling assets outside home market

6

38

38

25

6

6

6

6

50

19

19

13

13

13

6

24

24

5

24

19

29

53

5

5

10

11 28 2837 2155R d i th b l h t

20

10

10

10

20

10

10

10

30

50

70

40

40

10

20

20

30

10

10

10

10

17

6

11

6

6

6

11

11

6

39

28

39

61

33

50

28

11

33

11

6

11

11

28

24

15

30

37

37

38

37

2

5

3

8

2

15

29

10

10

15

15

15

7

3

2

2

5

5

S lli t t id h k t







40

40

20

20

20

10

10

10

30

30

30

10

39

22

6

17

6

17

56

44

39

11

11

20

50

18

24

5

3

2

25

8

10

15

3

10

7





Significantly moreSlightly moreSignificantly less Slightly less


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘About the same’ are not displayed.

A majority of banks in all countries also expect to increase initiatives to promote growth

Nordics Poland Spain

How likely are the banks in your market to be engaged in the following activities over the next six months?*

8

31

1515

62

54

69

62

54

38

15

15

23

8

25

63

63

63

25

25 13

21

7

21

29

7

7

7

14

36

36

21

36

36

7

7

7







Switzerland UK

23

15

8

8 15

46

54

62

15

8

8

8

13

13

13

13

88

36

21

14

14

43

7

7

57

14

21





13

13

9

26

4

26

4 39

39

52

22

39

35

9

9

9

4

13

9

20

10

10

40

30

40

40

60

20

10







39

4

9

9

9

4

4

9

52

43

48

4

4

50

20

10

10

10 10

10

30

70

10

20

10





Significantly moreSlightly moreSignificantly less Slightly less


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘About the same’ are not displayed.

Banks will continue to adjust their footprints…

Which, if any, of the following is your bank likely to consider over the next six months in relation to the countries in which it operates?*

32

4144

25

19

27 2723

Sell assets Buy assets Partnerships or joint ventures

None of these

1H13 2H13

Comments: Since the crisis, many banks have sold assets as they have restructured their businesses to reduce complexity or raise capital. This reshaping of the banking sector is set to continue, with 56% of the respondents expecting to either buy or sell assets, or enter a joint venture in the next six months. Banks remain focused on getting their European footprint right and 91% of banks anticipating asset purchases and 86% of banks anticipating asset sales or joint ventures, expect these to occur within the European market.


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents could select more than one option.

…with the majority of sales, acquisitions and joint ventures expected in European markets

In which regions is your bank likely to sell assets / buy assets / consider joint ventures in over the next six months?*

Europe

5

4

J i

Sell assets

Buy assets

North America

7

5

Sell assets

Buy assets

Asia Pacific

31

36

41

Joint ventures

Sell assets

Buy assets

1

0 5 10

Joint ventures

5

0 5 10

Joint ventures0 10 20 30 40 50

South America 2Buy assets

Middle East

Across the world

2

1

2

Joint ventures

Sell assets

Buy assets

1

2

0 1 2 3 4

Joint ventures

Sell assets

0

4

5

Joint ventures

Sell assets

Buy assets

0 5 10 0 5 10


* Numbers represent the total number of mentions for that particular region. Respondents could state more than one region.

Swiss banks are now significantly more likely to sell assets, while French banks are significantly more likely to buy assets

Which, if any, of the following is your bank likely to consider over the next six months in relation to the countries in which it operates?*

Sell assets Buy assets Partnerships or joint ventures None of these

32

21

25

27

31

40

Europe

Belgium

Austria

21

0

27

38

10

7

0

23

13

10

50

75

44

38

50

50

29

36

32

10

39

17

43

N th l d

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

0

20

20

25

30

11

15

57

42

7

36

19

40

28

15

24

17

61

28

41

40

50

63

19

53

15

43

30

38

0

0

10

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

31

38

29

20

15

13

21

30

16

8

36

20

46

25

14

40

16

54

43

50

23

63

71

40

31

1735

40

UK

Switzerland

42

2443

30

2H13 1H13

25

2830

20

28

4122

40


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents could select more than one option.

Most banks anticipate consolidation within the industry in both the short and medium term.

To what extent do you anticipate consolidation of the banking industry over the next 12 months and within the next three years?*

Within three years12 months

6

26

27

1214

26

43

31

I do not anticipate any consolidation Small-scale consolidation Medium-scale consolidation Large-scale consolidation

41

Comments: Although 73% of banks anticipate some consolidation in the industry over the next 12 months, most expect this will be small scale. Despite the significant strides banks have made in strengthening their balance sheets, the economic recovery is not yet assured and institutions remain cautious about major acquisitions in the short term. However, over the next three years 55% of the respondents expect medium- or large-scale consolidation. Switzerland is most likely to see consolidation in both the short and medium term, with all the respondents anticipating some consolidation, and 90% expecting medium- or large-scale consolidation. Swiss private banks have been struggling with declining profitability due to increased compliance and IT costs, as well as revenue pressure following recent bilateral tax agreements with Germany and the UK.



p g g y

Swiss banks anticipate the greatest degree of consolidation

To what extent do you anticipate consolidation of the banking industry in your market over the next 12 months and within the next three years?*

Austria Belgium Europe

10

20

40

70

40

10

10

3 years

12 months

6

56

44

25

38

13

13

6

14

27

31

41

43

26

12

6

France

10

10

14

57

62

29

14

5

Germany Netherlands Nordics

50

70

30

20

20

10 31

50

31

43

31 8

7

Italy

6

22

22

50

67

28

632

17

32

51

32

27

4

5

3 years

12 months

23 31 46

SwitzerlandPoland UKSpain

13 13 7512 months 48 48 410 40 50

42 17 42

I do not anticipate any consolidation Small-scale consolidation Medium-scale consolidation Large-scale consolidation

25 63 133 years 30 35 3510 40 50



Business priorities and product line expectationsp


Regulatory compliance and risk management remain the most important agenda items for European banks

73Preparing for Basel III/CRD IV

Rank the importance of the following agenda items for your organization*

2H131H13

3

2H13

1

Rank order of importance

464849

60

45

4955

41Investing in customer-facing technologyCutting costs

Reputational riskCompliance with capital market regulations

Compliance with consumer regulation/remediationMinimizing non-essential expenditure

Streamlining processesRisk management

p g2H1312467-58

23456789

2323

2737

26

1518

25

41

Developing partnerships with non-banksEstablishing new business segments

New remuneration systemsRestructuring the business to comply with regulations

Developing/Introducing new productsRestructuring the business to cut costs

Developing Recovery and Resolution PlansCurrent changes in financial reporting/IFRS

Investing in customer facing technology 811129

1014181315

91011121314151617

81212

14141515

Reducing the number of productsOff-shoring

OutsourcingDisposing of assets or businesses

New foreign markets/InternationalizationAcquiring new assets or businesses

Developing partnerships with non-banks

Innovation and growthCost cutting and efficiency

Risk and regulation

15191617202221

17181920212223

* R d t k d t k th i t f ti iti l f 0 t 10 h 0 d t ‘N t t ll i t t’ d 10 d t ‘ i t t’ N b h th t f d t l ti ith 8 9 10 B

Comments: Despite signs that banks are beginning to look for ways to grow revenues, risk, regulation and efficiency remain the top agenda items for European banks. Perhaps not surprisingly, given the greater clarity now that CRD IV has been agreed, preparing for Basel III is now the most important agenda item for banks – it was ranked third in our previous Barometer. More notably, tactical cost cutting has fallen out of the top five priorities for banks, to be replaced by compliance with consumer regulation and remediation. This is now a key agenda item for banks in countries that have faced mis-selling scandals, including the UK and Spain, with regulators placing an increased emphasis on consumer protection.


* Respondents were asked to rank the importance of activities on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 denotes ‘Not at all important’ and 10 denotes ‘very important’. Numbers show the percentage of respondents selecting either 8, 9 or 10. Base excludes respondents answering ‘Does not apply’.Reputational risk includes tax transparency. Compliance with capital markets regulations i.e., MiFID II/EMIR. Investing in new customer-facing technology e.g., mobile solutions.

Many banks expect to invest in customer-facing technology but other growth initiatives, except in the Netherlands…

Rank the importance of the following agenda items for your organization*Austria

8167

Belgium48

57France

4480

Ri k tPreparing for Basel III/CRD IV


Risk and regulation

38

75

13

5744

6960

75

81

19

40

4463

10

30

19

2029

3033

30

48

19

33

3348

11

044

6040

44

44

40

70

6060

10

44

R i h b i l i h l iDeveloping/Introducing new products

Restructuring the business to cut costsDeveloping Recovery and Resolution PlansCurrent changes in financial reporting/IFRS

Investing in customer-facing technologyCutting costs




013

2020

0

3813

197

256

2520

101010

19

1021

521

2011

2011

2225

3011

100







47

4131

4135

41

7256

31

50

6559

30

3030

4022

38

7067

40

60

6050

y y

1328

2844

34

5471

12

51

4459

22






Preparing for Basel III/CRD IV

2112

2228

18

2924

60

196

31

1340

4450

60

010

1011

010

1317

57272772

12






Developing/Introducing new productsg




…have been deprioritized, as regulatory compliance takes up an increasing amount of management focus

Rank the importance of the following agenda items for your organization*Nordics

8888

Poland92

100Spain

2185

Risk managementPreparing for Basel III/CRD IV


Risk and regulation

63

88

0

2950

7538

75

88

17

50

5088

31

46

58

6254

778585

92

46

46

7777

21

31

33

1550

2164

33

21

14

21

1529

R t t i th b i t l ith l tiDeveloping/Introducing new products





Streamlining processes Risk management

033

3843

500

14000

231717

3115

58

020

3338

808

2923

33

017

80






Switzerland UK

50

1020

5040

50

6060

50

50

6050






Preparing for Basel III/CRD IV

41

3548

6559

68

5786

30

39

5239

201000

30

1030

102020

30






Developing/Introducing new productsg

2522

2026

30

5036

921

1717




Banks anticipate an improved outlook for all business lines…

How do you rate the outlook for your bank over the next six months in each of the following business lines?*

2H131H13

10

7

6

1

3

1

45

45

46

6

8

14

Corporate banking

Retail banking

Private banking and wealth management

32

36

35

11

11

11

13

10

13

2

4

3

Corporate banking

Retail banking


Net increase

30

33

28

Net increase

53

43

40

20

9

10

12

1

1

1

1

32

36

38

43

9

5

10

8

Transaction advisory (e.g., M&A)

Securities services

Asset management

Deposit business

22

34

37

41

4

4

13

11

16

16

18

14

5

2

3

2

Transaction advisory (e.g., M&A)

Securities services

Asset management

Deposit business 36

29

20

5

38

37

31

20

14

14

1

3

30

32

5

7

Securities trading

Debt and equity issuance

26

28

22

4

9

4

21

14

16

4

8

5

Securities trading


y ( g , ) 5

15

5

20

22

20

Very goodFairly goodVery poor Fairly poor

Comments: Banks are most optimistic about the outlook for private banking and wealth management, which is particularly attractive given its capital-lite business model. With global markets having rebounded since 2009, the wealth of high and ultra high net worth individuals has seen a dramatic recovery - the wealth of EU27 billionaires has almost doubled since then and grew around 23% in the last year alone. However, this optimism may be more due to hope than expectation. With banks competing over a relatively small customer pool not everyone can be a winner. Banks also expect an improved outlook for retail and corporate banking. With signs of an economic recovery in Europe, banks are hopeful that both businesses and individuals will look to borrow and invest. Only the Dutch banks do not expect an improved outlook for retail and corporate banking.


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘Neither good, nor poor’ are not displayed.

Dutch banks do not expect an improved outlook for retail and corporate banking.

…with the strongest performance expected in retail banking, wealth management…

How do you rate the outlook for your bank over the next six months in each of the following business lines?* Retail bankingPrivate banking and Wealth management

14

13

5

7

8

29

3

11

14

53

51

35

45

42

33

7

5

6

8

17

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

29

50

48

47

46

42

13

29

7

8

5

14

42

25

14

3

5

6

13

14

1

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

6

22

13

13

6

8

47

22

50

50

63

12

11

17

13

13

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

60

60

45

50

38

10

10

18

17

25

5

30

17

13

5UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Deposit businessCorporate banking

53

33

45

43

43

67

10

10

8

14

67

13

15

15

12

7

1

11

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

36

39

38

45

27

40

17

6

27

10

17

14

12

14

10

18

10

2

1

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

44

33

45

63

60

17

18

6

13

10

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics


52

44

64

100

73

10

11

9

5

9

5UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics



… and asset management. The outlook has also improved for corporate and investment banking…

How do you rate the outlook for your bank over the next six months in each of the following business lines?*Securities servicesAsset management

80

53

33

30

36

25

38

5

25

13

7

18

15

9

20

1

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

29

38

23

33

38

54

10

29

13

5

10

31

10

29

10

14

10

20

14

1

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

47

20

45

25

25

13

10

25

10

25

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics


56

44

58

67

42

11

17

33

8

22

25

6UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Transaction advisory

25

22

29

20

22

43

1

25

54

22

29

32

33

25

15

3

6

9

11

14

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

14

19

20

13

14

11

25

9

3

57

31

14

38

32

56

25

14

13

7

13

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

13

20

30

11

10

31

50

30

50

44

13

10

25

11

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

22

8

14

14

11

53

11

25

57

33

57

6

11

33

14

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands




…indicating a hope that, as the economic recovery becomes embedded, businesses will be more willing to invest

How do you rate the outlook for your bank over the next six months in each of the following business lines?*Securities trading

50

38

26

18

30

25

25

17

12

5

13

13

13

29

14

13

25

17

1

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria


28

10

50

43

36

11

10

14

17

10

14

9

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics



Customer demand for investments and lending is expected to overtake demand for deposits and savings

How do you expect customer demand for retail products at your bank to change over the next six months?*

2H131H13

14

7

2

1

50

50

5

8

Personal real estate loans

Personal investment products

35

37

11

7

15

14

6

3


Personal investment products

Net increase

27

25

Net increase

50

39

12

9

14

1

1

2

46

46

50

5

5

5

Personal savings and deposits

Personal loans


44

32

35

6

3

11

16

19

15

1

5

6

Personal savings and deposits

Personal loans

Personal real estate loans 25

11

33

39

41

38

61 36 1Credit cards28 4102Credit cards 20 30

Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly

Comments: With greater stability returning to financial markets 58% of banks anticipate increased demand for personalComments: With greater stability returning to financial markets, 58% of banks anticipate increased demand for personal investment products. Banks expect savers will move their savings out of cash in an attempt to generate greater returns in a negative real interest rate environment. Banks also anticipate increased demand for both secured and unsecured lending. A significant majority of banks in all countries except Austria expect increased demand for personal loans. Ultra-low interest rates have enabled retail customers to pay down debt and improve their personal balance sheets. With indications of an improving economy, banks believe that these customers will now be more willing to borrow for consumption. Views on real-estate lending are more polarized, suggesting that the recovery of the European housing market is far from assured. Only in the UK, where the government has introduce deposit guarantees and equity loans do all respondents expect increased mortgage demand


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘Stay the same’ are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering ‘Not applicable’.

government has introduce deposit guarantees and equity loans, do all respondents expect increased mortgage demand.

Banks expect demand for deposits and savings products to remain high, but increased demand for a range of credit…

How do you expect customer demand for retail products at your bank to change over the next six months?* Personal real estate loansPersonal investment products

21

8

7

13

1

67

57

53

37

50

64

50

17

3

5

8

29

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

60

46

55

56

50

31

50

5

5

15

40

8

3

17

14

23

25

3

6

2

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

11

9

13

11

22

33

45

75

50

11

18

13

13

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Personal savings and deposit products

40

44

55

75

29

30

22

27

43

13

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Personal loans

33

57

29

72

46

40

38

17

5

5

7

17

36

21

12

13

13

6

1

13

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

50

46

38

56

46

57

38

17

11

5

14

13

17

15

5

6

9

7

38

3

6

1

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

60

33

55

50

63

33

27

17

13

17

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

70

11

45

75

25

50

9

17

11

9

13

17

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands




…suggests customers are now more willing to spend for personal consumption

How do you expect customer demand for retail products at your bank to change over the next six months?* Credit cards

14

11

6

9

13

1

75

50

26

39

36

36

38

6

1

N di

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

13

22

11

55

50

43

9

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics




Banks anticipate strong growth in corporate lending and debt issuance as corporations look to increase capital expenditure

How do you expect demand for corporate products at your bank to change over the next six months?*

2H131H13Net

increase

28

28

Net increase

54

3010

6

2 37

52

5

8

Debt issuance

Corporate loans

41

39

6

5

14

14

5

2

Debt issuance

Corporate loans

28

2

12

30

23

1214

13

10

6

1

2

28

30

37

4

7

5

Hedging products

M&A advisory

Debt issuance

29

24

41

5

2

6

18

15

14

4

9

5

Hedging products

M&A advisory

Debt issuance

-10 8

Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly

163 20 7Equity issuance/IPOs16 3209Equity issuance/IPOs

Decrease slightly

Comments: Improvement in the Composite European Purchasing Managers Index, which tracks projected spending and production levels, suggests that European corporations will increase their capital expenditure, driving demand for financing in the coming months. The precise shape of demand for funding will vary across Europe. While most businesses remain dependent on bank loans, respondents in some countries, such as the UK and the Nordics, expect the increase in demand for debt and equity issuance to outstrip that for corporate lending. This suggests that there may be a structural shift towards a US funding model, which places greater reliance on the financial markets.



Corporate lending still dominates financing for European businesses. However increased demand for debt…

How do you expect demand for corporate products at your bank to change over the next six months?*Corporate loans Debt issuance

50

57

21

36

37

43

33

7

5

11

24

10

29

3

2

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

25

50

55

59

52

88

44

5

12

8

13

7

6

6

33

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

53

33

30

43

44

13

14

22

7

11

10

11

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

41

22

70

57

44

18

10

29

11

6

11

20

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

M&A advisory Hedging products

8

20

6

14

14

8

11

6

33

31

14

19

28

14

38

33

13

4

13

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

44

33

8

43

30

67

11

50

3

14

7

14

50

22

14

13

14

3

1

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

11

38

30

11

6

13

10

44

13

40

57

33

33

6

14

33

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

54

33

33

50

44

15

11

8

11

22

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics



g yg yg y g y


…and equity financing in the UK, Italy and the Nordics suggests a shift towards greater reliance on market funding

How do you expect demand for corporate products at your bank to change over the next six months?*Equity issuance/IPOs

8

32

14

16

13

17

8

3

3

31

6

14

20

13

17

8

14

7

13

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

7

13

11

20

13

20

20

25

22

20

67

20

11

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics




Headcount


Ongoing industry restructuring and a focus on efficiency will lead to further job cuts across the sector…

Over the next six months, how do you expect the headcount of your bank to change?*

2H13 23 23410

1H13 20 3329


Comments: European banks remain divided on headcount changes. Banks in countries such as Austria, Poland, Spain and Switzerland, which are still going through significant restructuring, anticipate the greatest headcount reductions. In some markets that are further along with their restructuring, such as the Netherlands, the Nordics and the UK, banks actually expect to increase headcount. However, even in these countries the picture varies widely from bank to bank.


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘Stay the same’ are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering "Don't know".

…but banks in the Netherlands, the Nordics and the UK now anticipate overall headcount growth

Over the next six months, how do you expect the headcount of your bank to change?*

2H131H13

43

34

25

40

10

10

13

20

14

23

31

10

2

6

F

Europe

Belgium

Austria -50

-1

-19

3932

32

43

63

8

9

13

20

20

13

4

3

F

Europe

Belgium

Austria

Net increase

-63

-43

-18

16

Net increase

75

21

30

44

24

43

7

10

6

12

10

25

43

40

28

12

14

10

2

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France -39

-22

-22

10

15

5046

57

20

58

24

32

15

7

20

8

8

8

8

7

30

17

17

20

7

4

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France -16

-15

-49

-10

-50

53

26

50

31

75

4

23

35

20

15

25

4UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland -50

-39

-30

931

14

28

46

14

3

9

15

25

28

31

8

6

9

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland -53

3

11

-14

Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly Increase significantlyIncrease slightlyDecrease significantly Decrease slightly


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Respondents answering ‘Stay the same’ are not displayed. Base excludes respondents answering "Don't know".

Headcount will remain stable in growth sectors such as private banking and asset management…

In which areas of the business do you expect headcount to increase or decrease?*

2H131H13

11

12

13

11

36

13

10

12

11

22

8

Asset management

Retail and business banking

Private banking and wealth management** 3

-10

10

Net increase

Net increase

0

-24

0

7

8

9

10

2

9

10

17

10

4

13

6

13

3

15

16

Other

Compliance, risk and finance

Corporate banking

Investment banking -10

-2

1

-3

-7

-1

-1

5

4

5

30

33

2

3

22

21

Other head office functions

Operations and IT

■ Decrease ■ Increase

-18

-20

-28

-26

Comments: Redundancies will be focused on head office functions, including operations and IT, as banks continue to streamline processes and improve efficiency. Headcount will be largely unchanged in growth businesses such as private banking and asset management. However in retail banking, despite expectations of growth, headcount is still expected to fall as banks rationalize branches following mergers and the focus on efficiency and automation of branch activity continues apace.


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Base excludes respondents answering that headcount would ‘Stay the same’.

…but the cull of head office jobs continues across Europe…

Belgium France


Austria

17

17

8

33

8

17

25

17

33

21

36

14

29

14

14

21

14

7

14

14

14

43

14

Corporate banking

Investment banking

Asset management




33

42

17

8

25

17

33

14

21 7

7

57

29

14

43

14Other head office functions

Operations and IT

Other



5

10

5

30

15

10

5

5

15

5

Corporate banking

Investment banking

Asset management



14

14

7

36

7

14

14

14

14

11

11

33

11

11

11

22

30

40

5

10

5

5

5

10

10

10


Operations and IT

Other


Corporate banking

14

43

7

14

7

7

7

11

22

33

11





…particularly in Poland and Spain


Nordics Poland Spain

10

20

30

10

20

10

10

20

20

C li i k d fi

Corporate banking

Investment banking

Asset management



13

50

13

25

11

22

11

67

11

11

11

11

UK

30

20

10

10


Operations and IT

Other


63

50

78

22

11

Switzerland UK

13

25

6

31

19

13

31

13

6

13

Switzerland

14

43

29

29

14

29

Corporate banking

Investment banking

Asset management



19

25

19

13 13

14

43

14

14


Operations and IT

Other


Corporate banking





Contacts


Contacts

For more information on how we can help, please contact our team.

EMEIA: France: Nordics: Switzerland:

Robert Cubbage+44 20 7951 [email protected]

Steven Lewis+44 20 7951 9471

Luc Valverde+33 1 46 93 63 [email protected]

Germany:

Lars Weigl+46 8 520 590 [email protected]

Poland:

Philippe Zimmermann+41 58 286 32 [email protected]

UK:

[email protected]

Austria:

Friedrich Hief

Dirk Müller-Tronnier+49 6196 996 [email protected]

Italy:

Massimo Testa

Iwona Kozera+48 22 557 [email protected]

Spain:

José Carlos Hernández Barrasús

Omar Ali+44 20 7951 [email protected]

Friedrich Hief+43 1 21170 [email protected]

Belgium:

Jean-François Hubin

Massimo Testa+39 02 7221 [email protected]

Netherlands:

Wouter Smit

José Carlos Hernández Barrasús+34 91 572 [email protected]

ç+32 2 774 [email protected]

Wouter Smit+31 88 407 [email protected]


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Documents

EY-European-Banking-Barometer-2H13