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Extensive Introduction of Intermittent Renewables in Japanese Power system
The 4th Council Meeting of GJETCFeb. 15, 2018
Berlin, Germany
Yasumasa FujiiDepartment of Nuclear Engineering and ManagementUniversity of Tokyo
1
Outline
Power system model for Japan• Formulation of the model• Case study for extensive introduction of variable renewable power
sources• Utilization of surplus electricity as heat source for direct air capture of
CO2
Concluding Remarks
2
(Source) Compiled from “2010 Report of Wind Power Potential,” METI
5.5 m/s or more6.0 m/s or more6.5 m/s or more7.0 m/s or more7.5 m/s or more8.0 m/s or more8.5 m/s or more9.0 m/s or more
Potential onshore wind sites Annual average wind speed
Kyushu(29GW)
Chugoku(20GW)Kansai(42GW)
Shikoku(12GW)
Chubu(40GW)
Large Wind Resource
Endowment
Hokuriku(11GW)
Tokyo(83GW)
Tohoku(30GW)
Hokkaido(9GW)
Wind power generation is expected to increase in the future. (favorable sites are found particularly in Hokkaido and Tohoku.)
Hokkaido and Tohoku will employ power grids to balance the output fluctuations and surplus power of wind energy as well as stationary battery and the suppression control.
Tie Line Bottleneck
0.6~0.9GW
5GW
50 Hz
60 Hz
2~3GW
*Total Power Generation Capacity in Japan: about 270 GW
Potential of wind power integration in Japan 3
Japanese power system model 4
Normal Resolution Version
SimplifiedVersion
High Resolution Version
135 nodes166 branches
352 nodes441 branches
Hokkaido
Hokuriku
Chubu
KansaiChugoku
ShikokuKyusyu
0.9GW
5.0GW ↓1.5GW ↑
3.0GW
0.3GW1.6GW ↓1.3GW ↑
2.5GW →1.2GW ←
4.0GW →2.7GW ←
0.6GW ↓0.6GW ↑0.3GW ↓
2.8GW ↑1.4GW
Kanto
Tohoku
9 areas and 10 interconnection lineswith additional wind power transmission lines
Estimated solar and wind power 5
The time profiles of outputs of the intermittent renewables were estimated from meteorological data for each node at 10min interval.
Example of solar profile Example of wind profile
In the model, power from solar and Wind can be suppressed, if necessary(= Disconnection from the power system)
Electricity demand profile
• Time resolution of the original data in 2012 is 1 hour.• The demand allocation for each node was made on the basis of
IEEJ East 30 and West 30 models.
6
60
85
110
135
160 GW Annual Load Curve
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
New Year Holiday
“Golden Week”
Summer Vacation
Min
Max
020406080
100120140160
0 2196 4392 6588 8784
GW
hours
Load Duration CurveMax: 154GW
Average: 104GW
Min: 66GW
0
20
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PM
GW Power Load (20/JUL-26/JUL)Hokkaido Tohoku Kanto Chubu Hokuriku Kansai Chugoku Shikoku Kyushu
0
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GW Power Load (20/APR-26/APR)
Hokkaido Tohoku Kanto Chubu Hokuriku Kansai Chugoku Shikoku Kyushu
Outline of the model
• Geographical Coverage and Resolution• Entire Japan excluding Okinawa and small islands• The power system is modeled as a network of 9 nodes.
• Temporal Coverage and Resolution• Entire year at one hour interval
• 8,760 time points for normal year
• Modeling Approach• Cost Minimization with Linear Programming
• The number of variables and constraints is around 5 millions.• It takes one hour to obtain an optimal solution with CPLEX.
7
Major variables in the model
• Types of power generation• Nuclear power plants• Fossil fuel-fired power plants
• Coal-fired, Gas combined cycle, Gas-fired and Oil-fired• Non-intermittent renewables
• Hydro, Geothermal, Biomass-fired and Marine energy• Intermittent renewables
• Wind and Solar• Types of electricity storage
• Pumped hydro storage• Battery
• Longer-period storage battery (Na-S battery)• Shorter-period storage battery (Li-ion battery)
8
Example of simulation analysis for Japan 9
‐200
‐100
0
100
200
300
400
Power Gen
eration [GW]
Suppressed WindSuppressed PVBattery(in)Pumped(in)Battery(out)Pumped(out)WindPVOilLNGLNG GCCCoalNuclearGeothermalHydroDemand
Optimal Power Dispatch in Japan (May) (PV ratio(kWh):20%, Wind ratio(kWh):10%)
(Source) R.Komiyama,Y.Fujii, IEEJ Transaction B,Vol.132,No.7,pp.639-647,2012
May 1
May 31
Optimal Power Dispatch in Tohoku (May) (Wind ratio(kWh):10%)
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Power Gen
eration [GW]
Hokkaido→TohokuTohoku→HokkaidoKanto→TohokuTohoku→KantoSuppressed WindSuppressed PVBattery(in)Pumped(in)Battery(out)Pumped(out)WindPVBaiomassOilLNGLNG GCCCoalNuclearGeothermalHydroDemand
May 1
May 31
(Source) R.Komiyama,S.Shibata,Y.Fujii, IEEJ Transaction B,Vol.133,No.3,pp.263-270,2013M
ay 10
May 20
May 10
May 20
PV
Suppression(PV) Wind Suppression(Wind)
NAS Battery(charge)Pumped-hydro
LNGCC
WindSuppression(Wind)
NAS Battery(charge)Pumped-hydro Power Interchange(Tohoku→Kanto)
NAS Battery(discharge)
Pumped-hydro
Pumped-hydroPVSuppression(PV) NAS Battery(discharge)
LNGCC
Options for extensive integration of VRE
1. Quick load following control by thermal power plant (e.g.
LNGCC)
2. Reinforcement of transmission capacity of networks
3. Demand-side management (demand extension(EV, heat-
pump water heater),BEMS, HEMS)
4. Suppression control (PCS, Interactive communication)
5. Energy storage such as electricity storage(Li-ion, NaS
etc.), pumped-hydro, hydrogen storage, heat storage etc.
10
Assumed system to use surplus electricity 11
Electricity
Heat
WaterElectrolysis
H2Storage
Hydrogen
Water
MIT FIRES(Firebrick Resistance-Heated Energy Storage)
FluctuatingElectricity Constant Heat
Output
HeatDemand
ElectricityDemand
CapturedCO2
CO2 Storage
Atmospheric CO2
http://carbonengineering.com
DAC
Fischer-Tropsch
with reverse shift reaction
FuelDemand
ThermalPower
Generation
Non-fossilPower Generation
Chemical reaction of DAC system 12
Robert Socolow et al., Direct Air Capture of CO2 with Chemicals,The American Physical Society, 2011
900℃
Assumptions of sensitivity analysis 13
・Demand and supply balance of jet fuel
oil synoil FUEL 8MTOEo 80MTOE
・CO2 emission constraint2 2 2
2 2 2
CO2 emission factor = 0.76 t-C/TOE
Time step 1 hour
Area Aggregate 1 node in each area (9 areas)
HTGR Min cap: 0 GW, Max Cap: 11 GW
LNG GCC Each node: Max 20 GW
RE potential Wind: 260 GW, PV: No upper limit
Grid (new) Wind connecting line 1〜4, Kita-Hon line, Tohoku-Kanto line, FC
Nuclear upper limit 26GW or No upper limit
Liquid Fuel demand 8 MTOE of Jet fuel
‐20
‐10
0
10
20
30
40
‐1000
‐500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
No CO2Limit
200Mt 150Mt 100Mt 50Mt 0Mt 0MtwithoutNuclearcap
Total C
ost (Trillion JPY/year)
Shad
ow Pric
e (10,00
0JPY/t‐CO2)
Electricity
Gen
eration (TWh/year)
Net Heat & H2 UseSuppressed PVSuppressed WindBattery2(out)Battery1(out)Pumped(out)Battery2(in)Battery1(in)Pumped(in)PVWindHTTROilLNG GCCLNG STCoalNuclearMarineBiomassGeothermalHydroTotal CostShadow Price of CO2
Electricity generation and system cost 14
(302Mt)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
No CO2 Limit 200Mt 150Mt 100Mt 50Mt 0Mt 0Mt Nuc8MTOE synoil
Power Gen
eration Ca
pacity (G
W)
H2FIRESBattery2Battery1PumpedPVWindHTTROilLNG GCCLNG STCoalNuclearMarineBiomassGeothermalHydro
Power generation capacities 15
(302Mt)
Estimated synthetic fuel costs 16
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
150Mt 100Mt 50Mt 0Mt 0Mt Nuc8MTOEsynoil
Fuel Produ
ction (M
TOE/year)
Unit Prod
uctio
n Co
st of S
ynthetic Fue
l (JP
Y/kg) H2 Cost
CO2 Cost
Electricity Cost
Fixed Cost
Fuel Production
Concluding remarks
• The larger share of VRE is estimated to enhance the use ofFIRES (Heat storage), and FIRES can enable us to utilizefully surplus electricity generated by VRE. Heat storageshould be paid more attention as an inexpensive energystorage technology.
• The unit cost of synthetic fuel production with FIRES, DACand WEL is estimated to be around 200 JPY/kg, and thefuel may be economically competitive against some typesof bio-jet-fuels made from algae. Such synthesizedhydrocarbon fuels can be one of promising energy carrierseven under stringent CO2 emission constraint.
17