Lars-Erik Cederman ETH Zürich

Presentation at the Land and War International Seminar, University

del Rosario, Bogota, November 8, 2014

Inequality and Political Violence:

Explaining Global Trends

http://www.icr.ethz.ch

2

landdestroyer.blogspot.com

www.telegraph.co.uk

Civil wars raging in 2014

www.telegraph.co.uk

South Sudan

Gaza

Isis Ukraine

Decline of violence?

•  World seems to be falling apart •  Yet, conflict researchers register

decline: Pinker, Goldstein, Gurr etc.

•  But explanations broad and unspecific

•  Main hypotheses: 1.  Ethnic inequality declining 2.  Political violence declining 3.  Less ethnic ineq. è Less violence

3

Excluded population over time 4

Trend toward inclusion 5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

PowersharingExcludedDiscriminated

Probability of interstate conflict per dyad 6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0000

0.0004

0.0008

0.0012

Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Probability of civil war per country 7

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Probability of governmental mass killing per country 8

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Source: Ulfelder and Valentino 2008

Ethnic war on the wane?

•  Gurr (2000): Regime of accommodation explains decline in ethnic conflict: 1.  Group rights 2.  Territorial autonomy 3.  Power sharing 4.  Democratization 5.  Peacekeeping

•  Cederman, Gleditsch & Wucherpfennig. “Explaining the Decline of Ethnic Conflict: Was Gurr Right and For the Right Reasons?”

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Onset of civil war 10

Onset

Model 1a Model 1b Model 1c Model 1d Model 1e

group rights -0.759+(0.425)

autonomy 0.369(0.683)

inclusion -1.065⇤(0.516)

democratization -2.002+(1.022)

peacekeeping 0.214(0.340)

(Control variables not shown)

Observations 1208 4097 6206 5645 8968

Standard errors in parentheses+

p < 0.10, ⇤ p < 0.05, ⇤⇤ p < 0.01, ⇤⇤⇤ p < 0.001

Cederman, Gleditsch & Wucherpfennig Decline of Ethnic Conflict June 2014 13 / 1

Termination of civil war 11

Termination

Model 2a Model 2b Model 2c Model 2d Model 2e

group rights -0.212(0.949)

autonomy 3.646⇤(1.515)

inclusion -0.243(0.795)

democratization 1.497+(0.796)

peacekeeping 0.924⇤(0.361)

(Control variables not shown)

Observations 140 286 395 302 450

Standard errors in parentheses+

p < 0.10, ⇤ p < 0.05, ⇤⇤ p < 0.01, ⇤⇤⇤ p < 0.001

Cederman, Gleditsch & Wucherpfennig Decline of Ethnic Conflict June 2014 14 / 1

Predicting conflict trends: Gurr vs. Kaplan 12

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

02

46

810

12Predicting the Future of Ethnic Conflict

Num

ber o

f Gro

ups

in C

onfli

ct (O

nset

s)

estimation Gurr

Kaplan

Conclusion

•  Yes, ethnic inequality is declining •  Yes, political violence is declining •  Suggestive evidence of link between ethnic

political inequality and civil wars: Gurr was right for the right reasons!

•  Beyond political inequality, e.g. religion? •  Beyond civil wars? •  Possible reversals? Other causes?

13

Nightlights & horizontal inequality

Bamar(Barman)

•  Chen & Nordhaus (PNAS 2011)

Myanmar (GECON−based Estimates)Myanmar (Nightlight−based Estimates)

Bamar(Barman)

Kachins

Shan

Kayin (Karens)

Inequalityunder 0.40.4 − 0.60.6 − 0.80.8 − 11 − 1.2over 1.2

G-Econ Estimate Nightlights Estimate

Myanmar

Cederman, Weidmann & Bormann. 2014. “Triangulating Horizontal Inequality.” ETH Zürich