Expert Group Meeting on Conceptualising the Asian Energy ... · Dr. Mihai PAUN Network Development - ENTSO-E 4 September 2013, Urumqi, CHINA 1. Context: ENTSO-E, 10/20/40 year views,

Challenges of the RES Integration

For the Long Term Development of Electricity Transmission

Infrastructure in Europe

Expert Group Meeting on Conceptualising the Asian

Energy Highway (AEH) ESCAP 3-5 September 2013, Urumqi, China

Dr. Mihai PAUN

Network Development - ENTSO-E

4 September 2013, Urumqi, CHINA

1. Context: ENTSO-E, 10/20/40 year views,

Network Codes

2. The 2012 TYNDP

3. New Infrastructure Priorities Regulation

4. e-Highway2050 Project

5. Conclusion

Key activities set out in Regulation 714/2009 (on cross-border electricity

trade, part of the 3rd IEM Package)

• Deliver network codes binding to all network users (through ‘Comitology’)

• Deliver network plans European / regional view of system needs (“TYNDP”)

• Deliver crucial aspects of market integration (“market coupling”)

• R&D Plan (fully included in EEGI – European Electricity

Grid Initiative, part of the SET Plan)

Through its members deliver the infrastructure to:

• enable markets to function,

• secure energy supply,

• meet climate change objectives through connecting RES

ENTSO-E has significant role in delivering

European energy and climate change objectives

41 TSOs (among whom swissgrid) from 34 countries;

530 million people; 910 GW gen.; 300 000 km transm.

Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 2

ENTSO-E Organizational Structure


WG

2050

ELECTRICITY

HIGHWAYS WG

TEN YEAR NETWORK

DEVELOPMENT PLAN

6 REGIONAL GROUPS FOR

6 REGIONAL NETWORK

DEVELOPMENT PLANS

INSTITUTIONAL RELATIONSHIPS and

Stakeholders involved in the Electricity Value Chain

CURRENT RELATIONSHIPS of the

ENTSO-E WG 2050 ELECTRICITY HIGHWAYS

Climate Parliament www.climateparl.net

Sir Graham Watson MEP ALDE

ITRE Report 2050 Roadmap

Niki Tzavela

ELECTRICITY HIGHWAY SP

E-Highway2050 Project

EIP PCIs

CURRENT RELATIONSHIPS of the

ENTSO-E WG 2050 ELECTRICITY HIGHWAYS

http://www.climateparl.net/

FUTURE COOPERATION

ENTSO-E ELECTRICITY HIGHWAY

CONFERENCE 2014

Work program 2013 – key features

Second formal WP since 3 March 2011, when the Third Package came into application

Building on lessons learned from ENTSO-E’s first formal WP 2011/12 (and feedback from ACER)

Focusing on network code delivery and two areas raised by ACER, enhancing the consultation process and resources:

• Resources for codes development 40% in 2012/2013, compared to 30% in 2011

• 50% increase in Member TSO support

• 51.5 2013 Secretariat FTE incl. 8 secondments, compared to 34.5 FTE at end of 2011

Increase of resources a result from new needs, necessary intensification or prior successes (NCs, TYNDP CBA for PCIs)

• EC, ACER demand some new contributions and support the corresponding costs


How much work, what for?

840 Member experts/managers

NCs

Netwk plans

EIP/acceptance

IEM/EMFIP

R&D

TSO coord.

51.5 FTE in Secretariat


Conn’n NCs

Ops NCs

Mkt NCs

TYNDP

Adequacy

CBA EIP

EIP

Acceptance

IEM/EMFIP

Sustainability Security of supply Competitiveness

Reg integr

R&D plans

2050E-Hwy

Coord op’s

Academy

RSCIs

Supports

Relations 2013 work to energy policy goals

Only especially strong relations shown

Just like

transmission

lines, the

ENTSO-E

work areas

usually

address

several

energy

policy

objectives


Comitology Process

EC Consultation with all stakeholders

Assessment of NC

ACER Recommendation of NC to EC

Period in which ENTSO-E can develop a NC (12 month period)

ENTSO-E Consultation with stakeholders

Request for ENTSO-E to draft a network code

EC According to FWGL from ACER

Development of the FWGL (6 month period)

ACER (ERGEG) Consultation ENTSO, stakeholders, Experts

Request to draft a FWGL

EC Topic identified in art.8 (6) of 714/2009

Network Codes: Process & Timing

Development of

FWGL

Development of

NC


FWGL = FrameWork GuideLine

ENTSO-E Network Code Overview


The network codes as one common project required to facilitate

the 3 objectives of the Third Package

Markets

Capacity Allocation & Congestion

Management

Balancing

System Development

Requirements for Generators

Demand Connection

HVDC Connection

System Operations

Operational Security

Forward Capacity Allocation

Operational Planning & Scheduling

Load Frequency Control & Reserves

The intention: promote energy sector harmonisation by creating a set of legally

binding rules applicable across Europe in the form of ‘network codes’


Drivers for grid development

Sustainability • More renewables far

from loads

• New electricity uses

(mobility with electricity,

heat pumps...)

Competitiveness /

Market integration •Optimal resources sharing

•More long distance trans-

european flows

Security of Supply

• continuity of supply of

remote/isolated areas

• Prevent large

disturbances


http://images.google.be/imgres?imgurl=http://www.fla-shop.com/img/scrn_europe_locator.jpg&imgrefurl=http://betterwindowssoftware.com/products-88794.html&h=470&w=500&sz=34&hl=nl&start=9&tbnid=2tCQvE-BpgOi7M:&tbnh=122&tbnw=130&prev=/images?q=map+of+european+union&gbv=2&hl=nl

What are the tools needed for infrastructure development?

1. The EC’s Infrastructure Legislation!

Transmission line permitting in <3 years with one-stop shops

Transmission regulatory improvements for better financing

The ENTSO-E TYNDPs with better and better cost-benefit methodologies as the basis for

“Projects of Common Interest”

2. A 2030 and 2050 modular transmission plan for a Electricity Highways system

A 3-year R&D study with TSOs + broad consortium for the definitive 2050 grid study

Major changes in electricity generation and use major changes in transmission

Need to know soon whether to introduce a higher voltage level, of which kind

Transmission becomes cheaper and more efficient (less losses, less land needed) at

higher voltage

3. And: Public acceptance campaigns by MS governments for Electricity

Highways, linking European infrastructure to their daily needs


Grid length

+1.3% per year

with RES triggering 80%

of assets growth

1/3 of present generation capacity to

be replaced to meet demand in the coming

decade

+3% per year

Peak load growth

+1.7% per year

Security of Supply:

21.900 km

Internal Energy Market:

18.200 km

Renewable Energy Sources

Integration: 44.700 km

TYNDP 2012: A stronger grid to answer major challenges

Europe-wide 52 300 km:


2020 Europe - 100 bottlenecks in the transmission system

RES is triggering

80% of assets growth


With a robust and clear Project Assessment Methodology

• Every project valuated against 9 criteria

• Basis for further selection of

Projects of Common Interest

(in the new Infrastructure Regulation)

+ technical

description

+ monitoring

Grid transfer

capability

increase

Social and

economic

welfare RES integration

Improved

security of

supply

Losses

variation

CO2 emissions

variation

Technical

resilience Flexibility

Social &

environmental

impact Costs

+ ... MW


2020 Europe – 17% increase in infrastructure

By end 2016 2017 and beyond


2020 Europe - About €100 billion in investments

• €100 billion investment on

grids…

• 1.5-2 €/MWh in Europe over the

10-year period,

• 2% of the bulk power prices,

• less than 1% of the total end-

users’ electricity bill

billion € billion €

Austria 1.1 Ireland 3.9

Belgium 1.9 Latvia 0.4

Bosnia-Herzegovina 0.0 Lithuania 0.7

Bulgaria 0.2 Luxembourg 0.3

Croatia 0.2 Montenegro 0.4

Czech Republic 1.7 Netherlands 3.3

Cyprus 0.0 Norway 6.5

Denmark 1.4 Poland 2.9

Estonia 0.3 Portugal 1.5

Finland 0.8 Romania 0.7

France 8.8 Serbia 0.2

FYROM 0.1 Slovakia 0.3

Germany 30.1 Slovenia 0.3

Greece 0.3 Spain 4.8

Hungary 0.1 Sweden 2.0

Iceland 0.0 Switzerland 1.7

Italy 7.1 United Kingdom 19.0

Total ENTSOE perimeter 104


EC actions and its new Regulation on Priority Infrastructure

Connecting Europe Facility

Regulation

Initially = € 9 bl. !! for transmission

gas and electricity projects

Regulation on guidelines for the implementation of European energy

infrastructure priorities

Permitting streamline

Identification of Projects of common interest(PCIs)

Cost benefit analysis

Regulatory framework

Incentives and financing


1. Permitting and public acceptance

Slow and cumbersome permitting procedures the main obstacle for delivering investments

Public acceptance cannot be improved by TSOs alone

One third of the transmission infrastructure is currently delayed.

2. Legislative implementation

– Some compatibility among the 27 MS energy policies

– Some stability in EU legislation - avoid new concepts becoming part of official documents

3. Attractive financing framework

“real” return in line with businesses of similar risk profiles

incentives for activities “really” managed by TSOs

legislation and regulation in line with 20 to 50 years assets

Building the necessary infrastructure – 3 main problems


EU electricity HV landscape change

EU electricity high voltage landscape will drastically change in the coming years:

(Offshore grid, Electricity Highways…)

2013 2050


Partial undergrounding of EHV power lines

can help to build grids faster.

ENTSO-E paves the way to e-Highway250

2020

ENTSO-E's

TYNDP

Planned

projects &

policies

Possibilities &

Uncertainties

2030

RIP's:

NSCOGI,

MEDGRID….

SO&AF

ENTSO-E Visions

Regional plans

Envisaged projects

e-Highway2050 -TSO questionnaires

-Review of European policies

-Review of scenario studies

European scenarios

Possible projects

IEA ETP/WEO

ECF Roadmap 2050

EU Energy Roadmap 2050

EURELECTRIC's Power Choices

FP7 projects…

etc …

Time

2050

e-Highway 2050 Project

27

The STUDY

The Concept of ‘Electricity Highways’


Two main drivers for

infrastructure development

in Europe:

RES Integration

& Market integration

Electricity highways: what are we talking about?

An electricity highway is:

A transmission line with significantly more capacity to

transport power than existing high-voltage lines

Technology solutions and integration in existing AC grid are

still open today

though some DC technologies most likely

In the longer term Electricity Highway System (EHS) is likely to

be created


Why Electricity Highways?

Political will to decarbonise EU economy 20-20-20 Strategy

2050 Energy Roadmap

RES - key tool of the decarbonisation are located far from consumption centres Offshore wind

Desertec – MENA (Middle Eastern and North African)

Integration of large RES will dramatically change geography of electricity flows across Europe Variable renewable potential accross Europe

Intermittency of RES requires more network development for balancing purposes


Why Electricity Highways?

3

1


3

2

E-Highway2050

Boundary Conditions

http://www.e-highway2050.eu/e-highway2050/








RSE

WP1

WP2

WP3

WP4

WP5

WP6

WP7

WP8

WP9

WP10

Leaders

Sintef

Amprion

REN

Technofi

Elia Gr

RTE

ENTSO-E

DENA

RTE

The Structure of the Project


The Consortium

Name Country

RTE FR

AMPRION DE

REN PT

ELIA BE

Swissgrid CH

CEPS CZ

TERNA IT

PSE op PL REE * ES

APG* AT

Energinet* DK

Svenska* SE

HTSO* GR

EKC*

TRANSELECTRICA* RO

Name Country

SINTEF NO

RSE IT

ECN NL

IPE PL

TSO Research Institute

Name Country

BRUNEL UK

COMILLAS ES

IST PT

LEUVEN BE

ENSIEL IT

TU BERLIN DE

University

Name Country

ENTSO-E BE

EURELECTRIC BE

EUROPACABLE BE

EWEA BE

T&D EUROPE BE

Association Name Country

DENA DE

Name Country

TECHNOFI FR

CEP UK

E3G BE

POYRY UK

Public Energy Ag

SME

28 Direct Partners

MS Represented through Associations

Research

TSO

TSO

TSO

TSO

TSO

TSO

TSO

TSO TSO

TSO

TSO

TSO

TSO

TSO

University

University University8

University University

Research

Research

Research

University


Partners


The Progress Report of e-Highway2050 Project

The project started on September 1st 2012

Grant Agreement was signed in October.

e-Highway2050 project in figures:

28 direct partners, 16 TSOs

18 nationalities,

911 person.months,

13 M€ total cost, 9 M€ Grant,

40 months.


The Progress Report of e-Highway2050 Project

The choice of the Energy Scenarios for 2050: a key

milestone of the whole e-Highway2050 Project.

CONSULTATION with:

TSOs

Stakeholders comments before developing the

next steps of the project.

The choice

of the

Scenarios

Distribution

of G/D/E

per country

(cluster)

and

scenario

2050 Grid

architecture

per

scenario

Roadmap

2020 - 2050


e-Highway2050 scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts about the

future. We do not conclude that one scenario will be more likely to happen than

another, nor that one scenario is more preferred or "better" than another.

Rather, each e-Highway2050 scenario is one alternative image of how the

future of European Electricity Highways (EHS) could unfold.

Uncontrollable uncertainty (Future)

Controllable option (Strategy)

Scenario = { criteria }

Criteria

Some definitions, as introduction on Scenarios


Objective: select a panel of scenarios challenging

enough in order to cover a wide scope of possible

futures, in a limited cases to study for the Pan-European

transmission grid".

Uncertainties (examples)

Technical uncertainties

• Technology cost and performance

• Fuel cost and availability

• .....

Economic/financial uncertainties

• Economic growth

• Venture capital availability

• ......

Political/social/environmental uncertainties

• Public perceptions and acceptance

• International climate policies

• International vs. national policy focus

• …

Research, Development & Deployment uncertainties

• CCS maturity

• Multi-terminal HVDC operability

• …..

Options (examples) Technical options

• RES deployment: wind, solar, biomass, …..

• Non-RES techn: Nuclear, CCS, …..

• Network techn: HVDC, FACTS, ...

• End use efficiency

Economic/financial options

• Energy and capacity markets

• Subsidies/support schemes

• Taxes

Political/social/environmental options

• Regulations

• Industry standards

• Information campaigns

Research, Development & Deployment options

• Research funding

• Laboratory facilities

• Demonstration sites

Futures Strategies

Scenarios

METHODOLOGY FOR SCENARIOS’ SET UP


Futures Strategies Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5 Strategy 6

MARKET LEDLARGE SCALE RES

SOLUTIONS

LOCAL

SOLUTIONS100% RES

NUCLEAR &

CCS

WITHOUT

NUCLEAR

Future 1 Green Globe NUC X-1 X-2 X-3 NUC X-4

Future 2 Green EU CCS X-5 X-6 X-7 CCS CCS

Future 3 EU- Market X-8 No Policy X-9 No Policy No Policy No Policy

Future 4 Big is beautiful X-10 CCS Illogical X-12 X-13 X-14

Future 5Small things

matterNUC/CCS Illogical X-16 X-17 NUC CCS

Scenario selection

5 futures x 6 strategies = 30 e-HW possible scenarios.

Elimination of scenarios (future x strategy) with contradictions.

Market led ( NUC) x Green Revolution ( no NUC)

example: scenario {Green revolution x Market led} is not possible.

30 scenarios 15 scenarios


5 relevant e-HW2050 Scenarios:

Scenarios Selected

Futures Strategies Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5 Strategy 6

MARKET LEDLARGE SCALE RES

SOLUTIONS

LOCAL

SOLUTIONS100% RES

NUCLEAR &

CCS

WITHOUT

NUCLEAR

Future 1 Green Globe NUC X-1 X-2 X-3 NUC X-4

Future 2 Green EU CCS X-5 X-6 X-7 CCS CCS

Future 3 EU- Market X-8 No Policy X-9 No Policy No Policy No Policy

Future 4 Big is beautiful X-10 CCS Illogical X-12 X-13 X-14

Future 5Small things

matterNUC/CCS Illogical X-16 X-17 NUC CCS

X-7

X-16

X-5

X-10 X-13


THE 5 FINAL SELECTED e-HIGHWAY2050 SCENARIOS

The next steps

of the project

will be built

from these

scenarios


CONSULTATIONS

The choice of

the scenarios

Distribution

of G/D/E per

country and

scenario

2050 Grid

architecture

per

scenario

Roadmap

2020 - 2050


A consultation of the TSOs followed by Consultation with

Stakeholders by the partners working on scenarios development.

Zoom on Scenario & 2050 Grid Architectures

(WP2)

Four main Processes to elaborate Grid Architecture Options in 2050:

1. 2050 Scenario Development

– To develop detailed scenarios of the distribution of generation (G)

and demand (D) in Europe for 2050, including third country

exchanges (E).

2. Pan European Grid Model

– Introduce an adequate model of the Pan-European transmission

system in 2050 based on interacting-clusters . 3. Power Market Simulation

– Power market simulations that balance G/D/E in each cluster.

4. Grid Analyses

– Grid analyses based on developed grid model and power market

simulation results to develop options for “overlay grid”-architectures.


COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY

PRELIMINARY “PROJECTED” DEMAND PER SCENARIO:

in figures...

Large scale RES & no

emissions “100% RES” Big & Market Big Nuc and CCS “Small and Local”

(x-5) (x-7) (x-10) (x-13) (x-16)

(1) ‘BAU’ electricity

demand in 20504600 4600 4600 4600 4100

(2) 2050 ‘BAU’ +

electrification6100 6100 6100 6100 4400

(3) final electricity

demand in 20505500 4900 5200 5500 3500

(4) Final demand

met by transmission4700 3000 4100 5200 1400

Calculation step

[TWh / year ]


Power

Choices EU Energy RM 2050 SUSPLAN ECF RM

2050

IRENE-40

TOTAL EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN 2050:

COMPARISON WITH OTHER EU STUDIES (TWh/year)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

201

0 R

efer

ence

Bas

elin

e

Po

wer

Ch

oic

es

Ref

eren

ce

Cu

rren

t P

olic

y In

it.

Ener

gy E

ffic

ien

cy

Div

. Su

pp

ly T

ech

n

Hig

h R

ES

Del

aye

d C

CS

Low

Nu

clea

r

Red

Yello

w

Gre

en

Blu

e

Bas

elin

e

All

80%

sce

nar

ios

BA

U

Effi

cien

cy

CC

S

Des

erte

c

RES

EREC

100

% R

ES

TWh

/ye

ar

Demand

X-5, X13

X-7 X-10

X-16


Conclusions

1. TYNDP 2012 - 17% increase in grid needed by 2020 ≈ 52300 km

2. Europe-wide grid planning for the urgent 10-year needs, and for 2030 and

2050, is important but only one part: Network codes are also needed

urgently, and so is the market integration (described in NCs)

3. The new methodologies based on the 3rd IEM Package – TYNDP, NCs

– provide a solid framework and foundation for further studies and further

integration

4. ENTSO-E paves the way to e-Highway2050 and the selection of the

Energy Scenarios is a key milestone of the e-Highway2050 project.

5. Needed Energy Option Long Term Development, Planning and

anticipating the Future.


Thank you very much for your attention!

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Expert Group Meeting on Conceptualising the Asian Energy ... · Dr. Mihai PAUN Network Development - ENTSO-E 4 September 2013, Urumqi, CHINA 1. Context: ENTSO-E, 10/20/40 year views,