Experiences in carbon accounting for thermal performance

improvements in low-income dwelling structures

Steve Thornefounder and director SouthSouthNorth Africa

2014 Buildings and Urban Methodologies Workshop (UNEP-UNFCCC)

27th March 2014

Contents• History of experiences in Thermal Performance in

South Africa.• Experience of meths.• Meth interpretation and development of new

meths. • Thermal Performance approaches.• Suppressed Demand approaches and safeguards.• Main elements of calibration.• Issues remaining.

South Africa’s housing and energy challenge…

Policy History in South Africa

• Early experimentation in CLEEPH housing by DMEA 1980s.

• Thermal Performance of housing included in 1998 Energy Policy White Paper.

• Included in the 2003 Energy Efficiency Strategy.• Again in 2009 Energy Efficiency Strategy.• Thermal Performance Standards for dwellings

promulgated 2011.• SSF included in Climate Change Response

Strategy White Paper in Oct 2011.

5

Insulated Ceiling installation - Public Works

Thermal Performance Approaches• Regular public low-income dwelling structures• Initial retrofitting options in e.g. insulated ceilings• Predictive tools calibrated accounting for minimum

service levels (thermal comfort Temp and humidity ranges in bioclimatic charts)

• Inclusion of suppressed demand• Costly data gathering and model building• Attempted approval of CDM large-scale meths• Project registration (Kuyasa)• Considerations of AMSIII-AE• GSF large scale meth close to approval

Tools for current meth• The DesignBuilder and EnergyPlus combination is promoted

internationally by the US Dept of Energy and has been validated by ASHRAE.

• In this instance version 3 of EnergyPlus has been utilized, its ASHRAE verification is available. EnergyPlus has been validated under the comparative Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Programs BESTEST/ASHARE STD 140.

• BESTEST (Building Energy Simulation TEST) is a comparative set of tests which has become one of the industry’s most accepted methods to validate and test the simulation capabilities of the exterior envelope portions of building energy simulation programs.

• There are many other tools of various qualities.

Suppressed Demand Focus• Initially in COP7, then Kuyasa validation, much lobbying,

Guidance in GS Decentralised Thermal Services Meth, UNFCCC Standard, then BMU-ICI project

• Where maximum sustainable development can be achieved• Where fossil lock-ins can be avoided• Where poverty, lack of infrastructure or lack of natural

resources exist• LDCs, LLDCs, SIDS, Sub-Saharan Africa• Learning-by-doing – learning to apply the clear principles

and recalibrating approach• Where transaction costs can be minimised• Remain conservative wrt service levels (application requires

livelihoods increasing as a precondition)

Gradual release of suppressed demand: Carbon Calculations that take interventions into account (e.g.: Thermal Performance

improvements etc.)

Ene

rgy

serv

ice

Car

bon

emis

sion

s

___ Energy Service

___ Baseline Carbon emissions

___ Energy Service intervention

___ Carbon emission after clean energy service intervention

time

A

B

A are “Normal” Emissions Reductions

B are “Normal” Emissions Reductions + Future Avoided Emissions

Structure

Predictive tool

Project structure or determination

of the most plausible baseline structure

Active space heating for the

considered project service

Baseline heating appliance

Baseline type of heating energy

Emissions

Determination of the most common

active heating fuels in the baseline.

Selection of an accurate predictive

tool

Climatic data

Project service

Determination of the baseline

heating appliance

Empirical thermal comfort (as measured in the project)

Determined periods of the year when space heating is needed

Non-sleeping occupancy (measured by sampling)

Capped thermal comfort

Service levels – Thermal comfort

An easy way of describing the effect of air temperature, humidity, MRT, wind and sunshine is the Bioclimate Chart below.

Thermal Comfort

Non-sleeping Occupancy

Air-changes

• This variable is squeezed to achieve “best-fit” in the empirical data collected during calibration.

Issues…• Thermal comfort and adaptive thermal comfort…

minimum service levels.• Quality predictive tools (for heating and cooling).• Monitoring for calibration and emissions calcs.. May

require public funds for regional calibrations.• How to deal with Suppressed demand?• Roles of expert institutions: American Society of Heating,

Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc. ASHRAE®, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) etc.

• Roles of Validators and Verifiers (DOEs).• Combinations with other low-income services.• Top-down or bottom-up approaches?

Experiences with Regulators• 10 years of persistence.• Multiple submissions prior to Suppressed

Demand Standard and Predictive Tools/Modeling were allowed in carbon accounting.

• Both now embraced – teething with tools.• Questions now of how to prepare a menu of

thermal (cooking, space and water heating), lighting, refrigeration, etc. and perhaps livelihood activities considering value chains.

Thankssteve@southsouthnorth.org