Expected Progress, Transition Matrices and

Targets

Expected Progress

• Has been reported on Raise for English and Maths for a number of years.• Transition /Progress Matrices show ‘Expected Progress’ in terms of

whole KS2 levels and fine KS2 levels. • It is often referred to unofficially as 3 levels of progress• Matrices also show proportion of students exceeding expected

progress. (4 or more levels of progress)

New Expectations of Schools

• For Maths and English nothing has changed!• New ‘Transition Matrices’ for 40 subjects now available on RAISE. • Effectively, other subjects now need to consider proportions of

students achieving expected progress and exceeding expected progress and not to just base their analysis on Attainment and an overall added value figure.

Attainment

at End of KS4

U G F E D C B A A*

French

Attainment at End of KS2

W 0 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

French 1 X 5 7 3 7 7 3 X 0

French 2 10 45 79 69 73 59 28 17 4

French 3c 8 65 107 105 85 52 19 16 3

French 3b 24 105 167 263 274 154 50 30 6

French 3a 51 144 410 685 794 510 162 62 26

French 4c 79 286 833 1,560 2,582 1,852 555 162 55

French 4b 139 386 1,210 2,962 6,160 5,745 1,984 623 164

French 4a 89 292 1,125 3,323 8,829 11,936 5,886 2,194 634

French 5c 66 136 509 1,881 6,763 12,794 10,617 6,106 2,276

French 5b 12 29 94 402 1,764 5,131 7,801 8,003 5,518

French 5a 0 X X 4 40 164 421 1,001 1,577

Raise now has 40 subjects which show you the numbers of students achieving each grade from each end of KS2 starting point

Attainment at End of

KS4

U G F E D C B A A* 3 Levels 4Levels

French

Attainment at End of

KS2

W 0 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

French 1 X 5 7 3 7 7 3 X 0 84.4% 62.5%

French 2 10 45 79 69 73 59 28 17 4 65.1% 47.1%

French 3c 8 65 107 105 85 52 19 16 3 38.0% 19.6% 3 levels 4Levels

French 3b 24 105 167 263 274 154 50 30 6 47.9% 22.4% Level 3 51.2% 24.9%

French 3a 51 144 410 685 794 510 162 62 26 54.6% 26.7%

French 4c 79 286 833 1,560 2,582 1,852 555 162 55 32.9% 9.7%

French 4b 139 386 1,210 2,962 6,160 5,745 1,984 623 164 44.0% 14.3% Level 4 51.6% 19.9%

French 4a 89 292 1,125 3,323 8,829 11,936 5,886 2,194 634 60.2% 25.4%

French 5c 66 136 509 1,881 6,763 12,794 10,617 6,106 2,276 46.2% 20.4%

French 5b 12 29 94 402 1,764 5,131 7,801 8,003 5,518 74.2% 47.0% Level 5 59.3% 33.5%

French 5a 0 X X 4 40 164 421 1,001 1,577 93.5% 80.4%

55.6% 27.3%

To help you I have worked out the % for each fine and full KS2 level

For all 40 subjects!

SISRA Analytics

• Maths and English were able to use SISRA online to produce full level transition matrices…..• But had to use spreadsheets produced from SIMS marksheets to

monitor and analyse fine levels• Fortunately SISRA Analytics can produce full and fine level progress

matrices for any GCSE subject.• It will also enable you to monitor your progress update data as a

progress matrix.

SISRA Analytics will give you the % 3 +, 4+ and 5+ levels.

This can then be compared to the national figures on my spreadsheet from Raise

Whole Level No Grade/U Below G G F E D C B A A* Cohort Stu Inc Count 3+ Count 3+ % 4+ Count 4+ % 5+ Count 5+ %

N 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

W 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 100 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 1 4 16 1 1 1 24 24 19 79.2 3 12.5 2 8.3

5 0 0 0 0 1 2 10 2 8 2 25 25 12 48 10 40 2 8

0 0 0 0 3 7 26 3 9 3 51 50 32 64 13 26 4 8

Target Setting

• The trouble with FFT Targets:• The mechanism that FFT use to set targets uses national data to

give a most likely grade for students to achieve based on their KS2 scores.• It does this without recognition to how any ‘groups’ perform. • This means that we are left with a target setting system which will

not always achieve the result we would hope for.

FFT Targets

• Achieving FFT targets on average overall, does not mean that we will achieve the targets for each of the Key Stage 2 Test level groups!• Ultimately we may be setting ourselves and our

students up to fail –certainly for maths and English if any of the Key stage level groups is not close to the national ‘expected’ and ‘exceeding expected’ proportions, it could stop Stanborough gaining a ‘Good’ outcome!• This is now being extended to other subjects…..

Reviewing Targets

• SISRA Analytics gives us the chance to review targets in light of ‘expected progress’ • We could have used Key Stage 2 Test information regarding which

students are more likely to achieve expected progress, but when Maths and English undertook this task last year, this was not found to be useful…..• It would be better to use your own knowledge of your students and in

particular to use the progress update data.

Whole Level Sub Level No Grade/U

Below G G F E D C B A A* Cohort Stu Inc

Count3+

Count 3+ % 4+ Count 4+ % 5+

Count 5+ %

N N 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 4 1 1 100 0 0 0 0

W W 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03+

National4+

National 3+ Diff 4 + Diff1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 84.38% 62.50% -84.4% -62.5%2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65.10% 47.14% -65.1% -47.1%

3

3c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38.04% 19.57% -38.0% -19.6%3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 47.90% 22.37% -47.9% -22.4%3a 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 54.64% 26.72% -54.6% -26.7%

4

4c 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 32.95% 9.69% -32.9% -9.7%4b 0 0 0 0 0 7 4 0 0 0 11 11 4 36.4 0 0 0 0 43.96% 14.30% -7.6% -14.3%4a 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 8 8 5 62.5 0 0 0 0 60.19% 25.40% 2.3% -25.4%

5

5c 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 6 6 1 16.7 0 0 0 0 46.17% 20.37% -29.5% -20.4%5b 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 11 1 0 18 18 12 66.7 1 5.6 0 0 74.15% 47.02% -7.5% -41.4%5a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 100 0 0 0 0 93.51% 80.39% 6.5% -80.4%

0 0 0 0 2 12 23 14 1 0 52 49 24 49 1 2 0 0 55.63% 27.25% -6.6% -25.3%

This shows the French GCSE Year 11 targets.

This illustrates how the FFT targets we have set year 11 would not achieve the desired outcomes!

What next?• Each Curriculum area will now review the targets in light of Expected

Progress and use the progress Update system to raise targets where possible• This will not affect the original target, which will be used for results

analysis and Performance Appraisal• This is good practice anyway!