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Dr.sc. Goran Majstrovi ć *
Prof.dr.sc. Matislav Majstrovi ć *
Prof.dr.sc. Elis Sutlovi ć **
* ENERGY INSTITUTE Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb** Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical
Engineering and Naval Architecture, Split
EXPECTED FUTURE CONDITIONS FOR SECURE POWER SYSTEM OPERATION WITH LARGE
SCALE WIND INTEGRATION
24nd FORUM: ENERGY DAY IN CROATIAZagreb, 26.11.2015.
CONTENTS
1. Definitions and problem formulation
2. Expected future developments and system operation conditions
3. Conclusions and recommendations
ENTSO-e formula for secondary P/f control:
needed secondary reserve capacity (MW)
system peak load (MW)
empirical constants (a=10 MW, b=150 MW)
FREQUENCY CONTROL DEFINITION
Secondary P/f reserve BASED ON THE LOAD FORECAST ERROR AN DDOES NOT include wind power plant forecast error
Tertiary P/f control is any (automatic or) manual c hange in the working points of generators (mainly by re-scheduling), in order to restore an adequate secondary control reserve at the right time.
Used for:
- Balancing
- System security (outage of the largest generation unit)
FREQUENCY CONTROL DEFINITION
PROBLEM FORMULATION
Source: ENTSO-E
Note: 2.5% of a time per year = 219 hours > 9 days !
PROBLEM FORMULATION
Year Ancillary servicecosts (p.u.)
Installed WPPcapacity (p.u.)
Realized WPPoutput (p.u.)
2009 1,00 - -
2010 1,01 1,00 1,00
2011 1,01 1,68 1,45
2012 0,99 1,82 2,38
2013 1,17 3,27 3,74
Croatian case:
Source: 11st symposium HRO CIGRE 2014, T.Robina et al.
PROBLEM FORMULATION
Croatian case:
Source: 11st symposium HRO CIGRE 2014, T.Robina et al.
EXPECTED WPP DEVELOPMENT
WPP DEVELOPMENT PLANS IN EU
EC
EC 222 GW
EXPECTATIONS IN THE NEXT 30 YRS ?
1. Europe as single, common integrated energy market
2. Large share of WPP (off shore)
3. Significant application of Smart Grid technologie s
4. Significant integration of electric vechiles – lar ger possibilities for electricity storage and system re gulation
5. Improvement and application of wind forecasting s ystems
6. Better control of individual WPPs and wind turbin es
7. Larger compatibility of Solar and Wind power plan ts
TECHNOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENT
IMPROVEMENT IN TERMS OF:
1. Performance
2. Size
3. O&M algorithms
4. Cost of energy
EXPECTATIONS TILL 2030 ?
Realized:130 GW
WPP SHARE IN TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION TILL 2030
Source: EWEA and EC
OFF-SHORE AND ON-SHORE WPPs TILL 2030
Source: EWEA
WPP COSTS TILL 2030
OFF-SHORE WPPs TILL 2030
1. 3 EXPERIMENTAL FLOATING TURBINES
2. Potential for exploration of wind resources at the Mediteranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean
3. Longer blades and lighter rotors
4. THEORETICALLY: WPP at the sea surface are of 20x20 km 2 (island of Bra č equivalent) could produce total actual annual electricity consumption in Croatia
IMPACT ON THE SYSTEM OPERATION
WIND POWER PLANT OUTPUT VARIATIONS IN EUROPE
Source: Energinet, Eirgrid, ISET, Holmgren, Axelsson et al., INETI, EWEA
CHALLENGE : to set up adequate balancing mechanism
EXAMPLE
Variable RES and conventional GEN will playcomplementary role:
• WPP and PV to reach decarbonisation targets
• Conventional (thermal) GEN to ensure system stabilityand security of supply
If RES integration reaches 60% (out of which 40% variableRES) close to 500 GW of conventional GEN will berequired
CONCLUSIONS
2050, DAILY: 700 GW of WPP and PV →daily output varies by a volumeequivalent to 50% of total EU daily demand
2050, HOURLY: off-shore WPP of 280 GW, hourly output could varybetween 40-170 GW ( 2-8 times more than expecteddemand variations (±20 GW))
CONCLUSIONS
Source: ENTSO-e, EdF
CONCLUSIONS
1. Europe as single, common integrated energy market
2. Wind technology continuously improving
3. Large share of off shore WPP and PV
4. Significant application of Smart Grid technologies
5. Improvement and application of wind forecasting systems
6. Better control of individual WPPs and wind turbines
7. Larger compatibility of Solar and Wind power plants
8. Cost increase for power system security and stability
9. WPP will remain one the the fastest growing energy industries in the next 30 yrs
10.Binding RES targets in EU are very high (Croatia: 2014: ~18%, 2020 target: 20%)
11.Significant network reinforcement needed
12.New balancing mechanisms needed
13.Demand response mechanism needed
14.Wide-scale energy storage needed
15.Suggestions to move the barriers already exist – ACT NOW!
CONCLUSIONS
ENTSO-e: 100 billion EUR & 52 300 km lines in next 1 0 years(87% (45 300 km) related to RES)
≈ 1.5-2 €/MWh
increase in next 10 years
≈ 2% of transmission tariff
≈ less then 1% of electricity bill
of final customer
billion € billion €
Austria 1.1 Ireland 3.9
Belgium 1.9 Latvia 0.4
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0.0 Lithuania 0.7
Bulgaria 0.2 Luxembourg 0.3
Croatia 0.2 Montenegro 0.4
Czech Republic 1.7 Netherlands 3.3
Cyprus 0.0 Norway 6.5
Denmark 1.4 Poland 2.9
Estonia 0.3 Portugal 1.5
Finland 0.8 Romania 0.7
France 8.8 Serbia 0.2
FYROM 0.1 Slovakia 0.3
Germany 30.1 Slovenia 0.3
Greece 0.3 Spain 4.8
Hungary 0.1 Sweden 2.0
Iceland 0.0 Switzerland 1.7
Italy 7.1 United Kingdom 19.0
Total ENTSOE perimeter 104
CONCLUSIONS
Source: ENTSO-e
CONCLUSIONS
Source: European Climate Foundation: Power Perspectives 2030, On the road to a decarbonised power sector 2050
