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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
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NUXJKPDOKP JKG
SN@NPPDOKP
Jii you knng to lkow
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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
2/13
Tou ajy jsl wejt ejvn ten got`oa cuccin !"""#$ ten eous%k&
cuccin !""'#
jkg ten (j)jknsn jssnt )*%`n cuccin +,'"# %k `oaaok-
.en jkswn* %s /u%tn s%a)in8 ten )u*`ejsn o: :%kjk`%ji jssnts ok
invnrjmn (d.n.
pur`ejsdkm jssnts ok `rngdt)
P%k`n wn j*n i%v%k& %k `*ng%t3cjsng n`okoa%ns you ejvn to
g%st%k&u%se
cntwnnk aokny jkg `rngdt
Okiy `nkt*ji cjkls `jk )*%kt aokny cn`jusn teny ejvn ten
aoko)oiy0
@oaan*`%ji cjkls usn tejt aokny jkg )*ov%gn `*ng%t to `oksuan*$
cus%knss
jkg ten &ovn*kankt
Got oa cuccin !"""#$ ten eous%k& cuccin !""'# 7
Invnrjmn, Aokny jkg @rngdt
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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
3/13
Gnct :%kjk`ng cooas %k sto`ls o* *nji nstjtn snna to cn j
&oog te%k&
cn`jusn ten knt wo*te>`oiijtn*ji j))*n`%jtns %k %k )*%`n kot
vjiun2# jkg
)no)in =:nni5 wnjitey wnjite nbbn`t#
4ownvn* wenk jiaost nvn*ycogy co**ows aokny to )u*`ejsn
:%kjk`%ji jssnts
tenk ten /unst%ok %s8 weo teny wjkt to snii dt to wenk nvnrycogy
ds dk jkg
wejt ej))nks wenk aokny jkg `*ng%t cn`oans t%&et-
Nvn*ycogy :nnis &oog$ cut7
]njite Nbbn`t jkg orrownrs
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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
4/13
N`okoa% *n`ovn*y
Iow !ktnrnst "jtns
+0 Dktn*nst *jtns j*n iow njsy3aokny )oi% y#0
!0 Dkst%tut%okji %kvnsto*s stj*t cuy%k&
ukgn*vjiung jssnts0
60 .en )*%vjtn sn`to* %s st%ii )jy%k& gowk gnct
`jusng cy ten )*nv%ous cooa0
o. N`okoa%` outiool %s kn&jt%vn0o. Dktn*nst *jtn snks%t%vn
sto`ls seow *nijt%vn
st*nk&te
"
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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
5/13
@*ng%t *n`ovn*y
%en &utioo$ ds stdii knmjtdvn
+0 Jssnt )*%`ns stj*t *%s%k&0
!0 Gnajkg :o* `*ng%t %k`*njsns
60 @nkt*ji cjkls *j%sn %ktn*nst *jtns
o. N`okoa%` outiool %s si%&etiy )os%t%vn0o. n &nt j so
`jiing Bocinss *n`ovn*y= s%k`n
ten `j)%tji ut%i%Mjt%ok %s gowk
"
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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
6/13
Pt*ok& `*ng%t gnajkg
!ktnrnst "jtns stjrt rdsdkm
+0 .en )*%vjtn sn`to* `*ng%t &*owte )% ls u)
st*ok&iy
!0 Cus%knss cjijk`n sennts j*n jiso st*ok&$
)uci%` o::n*%k&s jkg E9J j`t%v%t%ns )%`l u)0
60 @nkt*ji cjkls *j%sn %ktn*nst *jtns :u*ten* to
:%&et %k:ijt%ok
o. Xuci%` o)%k%ok tu*ks )os%t%vn0o. P)n`uijt%ok ok ten
aj*&%k
"
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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
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@*ng%t gnajkg g*%ns u)
'dme !ktnrnst "jtns
+0 .en )*%vjtn sn`to* %s e%&eiy invn*j&ng eu&n
jaoukt o: gnct ok ten cjijk`n sennt#0
!0 @nkt*ji cjkls *nji%Mn tejt `*ng%t &*owte %s
siow%k& gowk jkg sto) %k`*njs%k& %ktn*nst
*jtns0
60 Dkst%tut%okji %kvnsto*s stj*t snii%k& jssnts %ko*gn* to
*j%sn `jse
o. Eji%kvnstankts cn`oan n1)osng s%k`n ten
`ost o: :%kjk`%k& %ktn*nst *jtns# j*n too e%&eo. Knw
sjins *n`o*gs ns)n`%jiiy %k `oaaog%ty
g*%vnk sto`ls cn`jusn %k:ijt%ok %s e%&e
"
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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
8/13
Pniio:: cn&%ks
Adks$y Aoankt
+0 .en aj*lnt `oiij)sn0 Ej*&%k `jiis stj*t
sniio:: %k vj*%ous jssnt `ijssns =:i%&et :o*
sj:nty50 @jse %s l%k&0
!0 X*%vjtn sn`to* sto)s s)nkg%k&0 @*ng%t
&*owte siows gowk :jst0
60 @nkt*ji cjkls iown* %ktn*nst *jtns jkg
)*ov%gn nan*&nk`y i%/u%g%ty0
0 Hi%&et :o* sj:nty$ %0n0 &ovn*kankt cokgs$
gn:nks%vn sto`ls ut%i%t%ns$ `oksuan* stjcin
nt`0#
"
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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
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Gn3invn*j&%k&
nct nbjuit jk wrdtn gowks
+0 X*%vjtn sn`to* &ons %k gn3invn*j&%k& aogn0
!0 Nan*&nk`y i%/u%g%ty %k:ijtns jssnt )*%`ns
60 @nkt*ji cjkls t*y to `oa)nksjtn *ng%t
&*owte &j) cy )*%kt%k& aokny
o. ovn*kankts t*y to `oa)nksjtn tengnajkg &j) cy tjl%k&
ok ao*n gnct ok ten
)uci%` cjijk`n sennto. @nkt*ji cjkls tjln to1%` jssnts js
`oiijtn*ji
%k o*gn* to stjc%i%Mn ten cjkl%k& sn`to*
"
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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
10/13
Tou ajy ejvn kot%`ng tejt %ktn*nst *jtns )ijy jk %a)o*tjkt *oin
%k ten weoin )*o`nss0 Dk
ay o)%k%ok %ktn*nst *jtns ns)n`%jiiy seo*t tn*a %ktn*nst *jtns#
j*n ten aost %a)o*t%k&
te%k& to wjt`e8
Dktn*nst Sjtns j*n ten lny to nvn*yte%k&
]jt`e !ktnrnst "jtns
8.88
:.88
3.88
0.88
7.88
>.88
2.88
=.88
5.88
4.88
0 Aokte W-CdiisWn`ekoiomy sn`tor
`oiijpsn
Pucprdan`oiijpsn
Jmn obgninvnrjmdkm
:
3
0
Gjtj sour`n6 Cojrg ob Movnrkors ob ten Bngnrji nsnrvn !"stn#
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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
11/13
$ktnrnst rjtns jrn `osts bor `oksu#nrs% &us'knssns jkg
ten(ovnrk#nkt. *'(enr 'ktnrnst rjtns
'k`rnjsn ten gn&t &urgnk bor teosn +eo jrn jirnjg" 'k
gn&t% '.n.e'(enr #oktei" ,j"#nkts
gn,rnss `rng't (ro+te -gn#jkg
s/unnn ten ,rot #jr('k ob &us'knssns &n`jusn
&us'knssnskjk`n ten'r gj'i" o,nrjt'oks seort tnr#
+orsnk ten ,rot #jr('k ob &jks s'k`n &jks &orro+
seort jkg
inkg iok(
gntnr'orjtn ten ,r'`n ob 'k`o#n,rogu`'k( jssnts terou(e
ten,rnsnkt vjiun nn`t ob g's`oukt'k( ten n,n`tng `jse o+s
$ktnrnst jtns nn`t ten +eoin n`oko#"
Dktnrnst Sjtns pro!t ajrmdk gnctcurgnk
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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
12/13
s "ou `jk snn "ou go kot knng gnr'vjt'vns% gnrn(uijt'ok or
(rnng"&jknrs to `rjse jk n`oko#" -jiso tensn bj`tors usujii"
#jnte'k(s +orsn
*o+nvnr% +enk `nktrji &jks bo`us ok +ejt 's `jiing `orn
'kjt'ok
-&js'`jii" `oksu#nr (oogs ten" `jkkot ,rnvnkt jssnt ,r'`n
&u&&insbro# ej,,nk'k(
*u#jk kjturn 's +ejt 't 's. ssnt ,r'`n &u&&ins jrn
kote'k( kn+-ui', #jk'j 'k :20=% !oute !nj Cu&&inen
'ss'ss',,' Cu&&in 'k
:=38 jkg okn ob ten rnjsoks +e" `nktrji &jks +nrn `rnjtng
+jsto ,rnvnkt teosn &u&&ins 'k ten rst ,ij`n
*u#jk kjturn 's +ejt 't 's
"rnngy cjk#nrs Cuccins
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8/12/2019 Expansions and Recessions - All you need to know
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Mnt 'k ou`e
B'kg #n ok
