Exiting from Fragility: Making the New Deal a Real Deal

The Dialogue continues...

A plan for discussion

In order to get out of fragility, we need to use the Fragility Spectrum to assess:– Where we are now– Where we want to be– How to get there– How to measure our progress– ....with ongoing and inclusive political dialogue to

ensure success

EXAM

PLE O

NLY

Transition stage Legitimate Politics

Security Justice Economic Foundations

Revenues and Services

Invest and Innovate9-10

Security sector investment. Corruption levels low. No major domestic threats. Reduction of crime. Innovation and building on successes.

Consolidate and Implement7-8

No major security incident for 3-5 years. Peacekeepers have left. Long-term strategy for security exists. Civil society engaged with security planning. Social and gender-based crimes addressed. Public perception of policing is positive.

Rebuild and Reform5-6

Peacekeeping troops drawing down. Police gaining citizen confidence. Laws enforced. Security sector reformed. Security sector independent from political system. Local planning to address crime

Restore and Reconstruct3-4

Tentative security nationwide. Peacekeeping required for enforcement. IDPs returned. Armed insurgents demobilised and disarmed. Social reunification underway. Security sector reform has begun.

Crisis and Conflict-Affected 1-2

Peacekeeping and international stabilisation efforts are necessary. Refugees and IDPs are a significant problem. Domestic security forces incapable or unwilling to manage crises. Armed clashes occur.

WHERE ARE WE NOW? The Fragility Spectrum: First, a country uses the spectrum to assess its current situation for each of the PSGs1

A country might decide, through inclusive

political dialogue at the country-level 2, that it is

at Security Stage 3, ‘Restore’

The description should reflect a country’s

current situation as closely as possible

3

Fragility Spectrum for Country X:

(1) New Deal, Section ii, Sentence 1; (2) New Deal, Focus, Section ii, Sentence 2

EXAM

PLE O

NLY

Transition stage Legitimate Politics

Security Justice Economic Foundations

Revenues and Services

Invest and Innovate9-10

Security sector investment. Corruption levels low. No major domestic threats. Reduction of crime. Innovation and building on successes.

Consolidate and Implement7-8

No major security incident for 3-5 years. Peacekeepers have left. Long-term strategy for security exists. Civil society engaged with security planning. Social and gender-based crimes addressed. Public perception of policing is positive.

Rebuild and Reform5-6

Peacekeeping troops drawing down. Police gaining citizen confidence. Laws enforced. Security sector reformed. Security sector independent from political system. Local planning to address crime

Restore and Reconstruct3-4

Tentative security nationwide. Peacekeeping required for enforcement. IDPs returned. Armed insurgents demobilised and disarmed. Social reunification underway. Security sector reform has begun.

Crisis and Conflict-Affected 1-2

Peacekeeping and international stabilisation efforts are necessary. Refugees and IDPs are a significant problem. Domestic security forces incapable or unwilling to manage crises. Armed clashes occur.

WHERE DO WE WANT TO GO? One Vision: Second, a country decides where it would like to get to and the timeframe to achieve it

3

5

A country might decide that it would like to reach Security Stage 5, ‘Rebuild’, within the next five years

Fragility Spectrum for Country X:

EXAM

PLE O

NLY

Transition stage Legitimate Politics

Security Justice Economic Foundations

Revenues and Services

Invest and Innovate9-10

Security sector investment. Corruption levels low. No major domestic threats. Reduction of crime. Innovation and building on successes.

Consolidate and Implement7-8

No major security incident for 3-5 years. Peacekeepers have left. Long-term strategy for security exists. Civil society engaged with security planning. Social and gender-based crimes addressed. Public perception of policing is positive.

Rebuild and Reform5-6

Peacekeeping troops drawing down. Police gaining citizen confidence. Laws enforced. Security sector reformed. Security sector independent from political system. Local planning to address crime

Restore and Reconstruct3-4

Tentative security nationwide. Peacekeeping required for enforcement. IDPs returned. Armed insurgents demobilised and disarmed. Social reunification underway. Security sector reform has begun.

Crisis and Conflict-Affected 1-2

Peacekeeping and international stabilisation efforts are necessary. Refugees and IDPs are a significant problem. Domestic security forces incapable or unwilling to manage crises. Armed clashes occur.

HOW DO WE GET THERE? One Plan: Third, countries choose from a range of policy options to take them from where they are to where they want to get to

5

3

e.g. Policy options to get from Security Stage 3 to Stage 5 include:DDR and retrieve armsPublic sensitisation campaignRecognise veteran rightsRegulate private security sector Reform security sector[Other]

Fragility Spectrum for Country X:

EXAM

PLE O

NLY

Transition stage Legitimate Politics

Security Justice Economic Foundations

Revenues and Services

Invest and Innovate9-10

Security sector investment. Corruption levels low. No major domestic threats. Reduction of crime. Innovation and building on successes.

Consolidate and Implement7-8

No major security incident for 3-5 years. Peacekeepers have left. Long-term strategy for security exists. Civil society engaged with security planning. Social and gender-based crimes addressed. Public perception of policing is positive.

Rebuild and Reform5-6

Peacekeeping troops drawing down. Police gaining citizen confidence. Laws enforced. Security sector reformed. Security sector independent from political system. Local planning to address crime

Restore and Reconstruct3-4

Tentative security nationwide. Peacekeeping required for enforcement. IDPs returned. Armed insurgents demobilised and disarmed. Social reunification underway. Security sector reform has begun.

Crisis and Conflict-Affected 1-2

Peacekeeping and international stabilisation efforts are necessary. Refugees and IDPs are a significant problem. Domestic security forces incapable or unwilling to manage crises. Armed clashes occur.

HOW DO WE MEASURE PROGRESS? Countries then choose from a menu of indicators to measure progress: Use PSGs to Monitor Country-level Progress3

3

5

e.g. Indicators for Security Stage 3 could include:Number of deaths from organised conflict (GPI)Heavy weapons per 100,000 people (GPI)Homicide rates per 100,000 (UNOCD)Share of IDPs to total population % (WDI)[Other]

A menu of indicators means countries can

choose indicators which are practical and

applicable to them

(3) New Deal, Section ii, Paragraph 5

Fragility Spectrum for Country X:

EXAM

PLE O

NLY

Transition stage Legitimate Politics

Security Justice Economic Foundations

Revenues and Services

Invest and Innovate9-10

Security sector investment. Corruption levels low. No major domestic threats. Reduction of crime. Innovation and building on successes.

Consolidate and Implement7-8

No major security incident for 3-5 years. Peacekeepers have left. Long-term strategy for security exists. Civil society engaged with security planning. Social and gender-based crimes addressed. Public perception of policing is positive.

Rebuild and Reform5-6

Peacekeeping troops drawing down. Police gaining citizen confidence. Laws enforced. Security sector reformed. Security sector independent from political system. Local planning to address crime

Restore and Reconstruct3-4

Tentative security nationwide. Peacekeeping required for enforcement. IDPs returned. Armed insurgents demobilised and disarmed. Social reunification underway. Security sector reform has begun.

Crisis and Conflict-Affected 1-2

Peacekeeping and international stabilisation efforts are necessary. Refugees and IDPs are a significant problem. Domestic security forces incapable or unwilling to manage crises. Armed clashes occur.

The Fragility Spectrum generates comparable ratings for each country in the g7+ and is the basis for global indicators to be developed

3

5

Fragility Spectrum for Country X:

Using the Fragility Spectrum gives us a Fragility Exit Plan: this is FOCUS, a new way of engaging with fragile states

NEW DEAL Fragility Assessment

One Vision

One Plan Use PSGs to monitor

PSG Current stage

Destination stage

Policies Indicators Target

Security 3 5 DDR and retrieve arms

Heavy weapons per 100,000 people (GPI)

Halve heavy weapons per 100,000 people (GPI) in 5 years

Justice

Inclusive Politics

Economic Foundations

Revenues and Services

Fragility Exit Plan for Country X:

This Fragility Exit Plan Supports and is based on ongoing inclusive

political dialogue and enables countries and civil society to communicate to their people where they are, where they

want to go, and how they are going to get there

A Compact will set out how donors can

support the delivery of the Fragility Exit Plan…

Transition stage Transparency Risk-Sharing Use Country Systems

Strengthen Capacity Timely and predictable aid

Invest and Innovate9-10

Full top line budget support

Consolidate and Implement7-8

Rebuild and Reform5-6

One on one mentoring and coaching of local staff

3-5 year aid disbursement forecasts

Restore and Reconstruct3-4Crisis and Conflict-Affected 1-2

Show amount allocated and programming

Shadow alignment using good humanitarian principles

Fast track instruments to get aid where it’s needed quickly

TRUST, a new set of commitments, is operationalised through the Compact and linked to the Transitional Stages using the TRUST Matrix

TRUST Matrix:

(4) See compact definition in New Deal, Section 2, paragraph 4

A Compact “can take different forms at different points in transition out of

fragility… and can guide the choice of aid modalities”4

EXAMPLE ONLY

The TRUST matrix is a menu of modalities, showing the

TRUST commitments at each stage of fragility

COMPACT:NEW DEAL Fragility

AssessmentOne Vision One Plan Use PSGs to monitor

PSG Current stage

Destination stage

Policies Indicators Target

Security 3 5 DDR and retrieve arms

Heavy weapons per 100,000 people

Halve heavy weapons per 100,000 people (GPI) in 5 years

Transition stage Transparency Risk-Sharing Use Country Systems

Strengthen Capacity

Timely and predictable aid

Crisis and Conflict-Affected 1-2

Show amount allocated and programming

Shadow alignment using good humanitarian principles

Fast track instruments to get aid where it’s needed quickly

TRUST: the ‘How’

FOCUS: the ‘What’

The Compact is comprised of the Fragility Exit Plan together with the TRUST commitments for the relevant Transitional Stage

“Compacts allow partners to focus on the most critical areas whilst providing a mechanism that can build mutual trust.” - INCAF

Next steps:

• The g7+ to develop a shared understanding of ‘fragility’ and each of the Transitional Stages

• Joint working group(s), supported by sector experts and researchers, to develop content of the Fragility Spectrum based on g7+ understanding: Descriptions of each Transitional Stage Policy options for each stage Indicators menus for each stage and global

indicators• International Dialogue members to agree the definition

of ‘Compact’ based on this architecture and write policy guidance as agreed in the New Deal